Rasmussen says the daily numbers do indicate a bounce and it should show up in the next few days.

But it won't be as big as Gallup's, Rasmussen never shows the same kind of dramatic shifts that other pollsters do after conventions, debates, etc. due to using LVs instead of RVs and because of his weighting by party ID.

Lets hope this is a sign of things to come.

I'm not paying attention to polls until the middle of October.

I hate to be a buzzkiller (I'm not a POW and therfore don't have the right) but any bounce will be short term as the GOP hate fest/convention begins next week.

Besides, with Obama's incredible ground game I doubt polls will ever capture the true nature of this campaign.

Anyone know what the reaction of PUMA central was to last night's festivities?

Now that this is up, I am reposting from another thread.

I did some quick math to try to figure out how Obama has polled since the beginning of the convention, and it shows that Obama is polling WAY ahead of McCain.

On Aug 26, McCain had a 46-44 lead. This is the result of a 3 day tracking poll including results from Aug 23-25. The previous tracking polls were essentially tied at 45.

So, we can infer that McCain polled significantly better than Obama, probably around 48-42, on Aug 25 to pull ahead by 2.

Since then Obama has moved to a 6 point lead, including poll results from Aug 25 - 27.

Since the Aug 25 polling results are still in the 3 day average, we can determine the average daily polling for Obama on Aug 26 and 27.

That number turns out to be 51-39. 12 point lead average. And that doesn't include polling after last nights speeches.

My guess is that Clinton supporters have come around and that tomorrow 3 day tracking poll will show Obama with at least a 10 point lead, probably bigger.

There's a good analysis of these two polls at 538.com:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/gallup-shows-initial-convention-bounce.html

But McShame is talking directly to Obama tonight...mano to mano through a strip tease ad...the polls will drop immediately then to a level of Decemeber 2006!...Right eric?

Does anyone have info on which polls have proven to be most accurate this campaign season, (ie. the throughout the primaries/caucuses,) and which have generally been incaccurate?

Robert

MCWar:
I am a POW, polls don't matter...I AM A POW, I AM a POW...

The only good poll is the one spelled POLE, to be used in completing the transformation of Popeye into the right-wing sock puppet he has become.

"As such, we haven't yet seen the impact of Bill Clinton speech last night ..."

Yes, let's be careful to keep up this page's line that Bill Clinton was the only one to speak last night. There was that Vice President guy and the others, whatever their names were. All that reference to old Irish mothers and filial pieties from that Beau person and a dramatic appearance by that black man from Chicago. I don't know why the fuck they even bothered. What were Michelle Obama and that Biden woman crying about?

It was, according to Greg and Eric, all about Bill Clinton. All those people with tears streaming down their faces must have been crying because they were yearning for more speeches from Bubba.

I know it might be an unrealistic expectation, but I'm hoping that the bounce is a big one.

If that happens, McCain's boys will go for the knee-jerk response and go even more negative at the convention next week, since it's the only game they know how to play.

three day's of prime-time attacks on Obama and Democrats - despite the way it's spun by the media - will be a disaster for Republicans. People will see once and for all that there's no vision left in that party and all they can do to try to win is trash the other guy.

This site only shows 4 out of 72 projections for McCain.

http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm

There has been some tightening of the polls lately, but I find it hard to take any site seriously that has McCain the projected leader right now.

All this convention bounce talk makes my head swim. Frankly convention bounces don't last long. Conventions are about party unity, not attracting the undecideds. That comes later. If Obama's support among Democrats goes to 90% there is only room for a 4% hard bounce. The rest, if any, is from true independents who are favorably impressed by the convention speeches. Without a lot of work those independent votes can fade away.

Dear Liberty:

We Republicans offer a great future - more tax breaks for oil companies, the acceleration of global warming, increased unemployment, visits to the emergency room if you want health insurance, bigger deficits and more wars around the world. Now why can't you "get with the program" and vote for McCain like I did?

Traitor Joe

Be wary of the bump talk you hear because the McCain campaign is trying to raise the bar of the expected bump so high that, when Obama doesn't get it, he will be mocked for the failure. Know your sources. Also, we have to expect that the red meat convention McCain will have will provide him a bump at a time when Obama's will be receding. I don't know what to do about that.

Forget bounces or each individual poll - just go by the poll of polls. Obama has not trailed McCain since 4/14 and has not been tied with McCain since 5/02. As far as the state polls of polls, Obama is ahead in Colorado (+.4), New Mexico (+4.3) and Iowa (+5.3) plus tied in Virginia. All Bush states in 2004. He's 1 point behind in Ohio and Nevada.

Meanwhile, McCain is not threatening Obama in any of the states that were won in 2000 and 2004 by either/or Gore and Kerry (the true blue states plus New Mexico, New Hampshire and Iowa).

I would think the Biden speech would influence a few voters.

Both Biden's and Kerry's speech really stood out for me.

Clinton gave a great one too.

I'm a happy camper now, after complaining for the first 2 days.

I don't see how these polls mean much without the 3rd parties. They don't seem to want to show those polls because McCain often drops down into the 30s, although some do hurt Obama--especially in Nevada.
One thing is for sure, the desperate campaign that McCain is running makes it obvious that the GOP are seeing numbers that worry them alot.
I want to see the Biden bounce in Pennsylvania, and hopefully Ohio and Michigan. Come on Catholic voters!

Question: Which presidential candidate do the enemies of the U.S. want as President of the U.S?---Greg------http://us.imdb.com/name/nm2734923/