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Obama And McCain Tied In First Poll Since VP Announcement
A new CNN poll -- the first national survey since Joe Biden was picked as Barack Obama's running mate -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 47% each, compared to a 51%-44% lead for Obama from a month ago.
The poll was conducted Saturday through Sunday evening.
From the pollster's analysis: "The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most although not all of the support McCain has gained in that time."
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Yawn. Sigh.
August 24, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except that to find this nugget they used Clinton's numbers from June not July. Also--Why not post the ABC poll from b>today that had Obama ahead by 4 (LV) or 6 (RV). I really want to understand this focus on the polls that have the worst numbers for Obama.
August 24, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent question. What's going on here?
Josh?
August 25, 2008 12:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. It seems as though the worst numbers get the posts, and CNN? I wouldn't trust that one.
August 25, 2008 2:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
National polls are meaningless.
August 25, 2008 6:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's also a new ABC/WaPo poll showing Obama up by 4 among likely voters, and by 6 among registered voters.
There's also a new USA Today/Gallup poll showing Obama up by 3 among likely voters. (This is a dramatic shift from the last USA Today/Gallup poll, which showed McCain up by 4).
And yet, this is the poll you post about, and plaster on the front page.
Sigh.
August 24, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably because, as the headline says, it's the First Poll Since VP Announcement.
C'mon, cut Eric some slack. He's staying up late just to give us nattering nabobs of negativism™ something to natter about. And he has to get up early to prepare the TPM EC Roundup for its regular 9:00 a.m. appearance.
Hey, I'm not thrilled about the poll's results either, but I do appreciate hearing about it.
August 25, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems, that TPM always headlines the bad news polls and buries the good news ones. Just as their headlines trumpet GOP talking points rather than refute them. And another thing, when they do highlight an "Obama Ahead" poll, the headline often cites an internal number that is great for McCain.
August 25, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, this is the poll you post about, and plaster on the front page.
Sigh.
Thou Shalt Only Post Good News At TPM Election Central, Eric! Didn't you get the memo?
August 25, 2008 2:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, taking polls on a SATURDAY NIGHT is always very good for Obama.
Sigh.
August 24, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Polls r nothing but fantasy. Obama wins in a landslide.
August 24, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
100+ EV. McSame is toast.
August 24, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN also said they allowed for cell phones and it did not make a difference! Yeah right!!
August 24, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, and how did they do that? Where is my phone call? The only one I got was asking me to vote to add a constitutional amendment defining marriage between a man and woman, as if.........
August 25, 2008 2:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
A tie poll now may mean a bigger bounce post convention.
August 25, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who did CNN poll? Senior citizen, bigots that live in rural America like Fox does?
August 25, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zemer,
I just got back from San Antonio this weekend. Fox News was playing in everyone's home and in all the restaurants. The scroll under the Obama-Biden news said "McCain prepares attack ads" and "Michelle Obama fair game for smears." Totally Fixed News. They even tossed the words "socialist" and "communist" around. Talk radio was even worse - "Obama's a Muslim!" was a common theme for the hosts and callers. McCain bumper stickers everywhere. People really can be that stupid.
Rob
August 25, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny:
Nate over at fivethirtyeight.com has already posted at length about how this poll manipulates and misstates the data. Give it a look.
Eric should perhaps have read this as well. After all, if i can find it.........
August 25, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite - it was pointed out that there are some problems with the use of the Clinton supporters poll data to extrapolate on the *reason* and analysis behind the drop in Obama's lead, but the poll itself isn't effectively questioned, neither is its methodology, except for some criticism that some other info, topline results, cross-tab info, etc.
In other words, CNN last 3 polls did not release as much info as other polls did, its "conclusion" that Clinton supporters are turning to McCain is suspect, but there's no discernible reason to doubt the conduct of this poll or its results.
August 25, 2008 12:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
...except for some criticism that some other info, topline results, cross-tab info, etc. that have not been released.
Read the article *carefully*.
August 25, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gayithacan,
You just beat me to it, but here's the link:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/cnn-poll-suggests-trouble-for-obama-but.html
August 25, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me too. I read Nate's analysis a long while ago. I don't trust this poll worth shit. CNN's track record of unbiased reporting is pretty bad this season.
August 25, 2008 12:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has only hismelf to blame for turning off Hillary supporters.
Obama slapped Hillary across the face with his 3AM text message announcement.
August 25, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, come on. You'd prefer McCain?
August 25, 2008 1:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep telling yourself it was all him. She did everything that reasonably could be asked to bring unity, but he spoiled it.
Keep telling yourself.
August 25, 2008 1:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Any excuse will do for these psychos...
August 25, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
You Hillary Supporters are McCain's best weapon. GET OVER IT. Obama won fair and square. NO MORE CATHARSIS, no more whining. Support the Democratic nominee. What point are you trying to make, that you want 3 more right-wing Supreme court judges, Roe vs. Wade overturned and another $3 Trillion in Debt? KNOCK IT OFF WHINERS.
August 25, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting analysis by Nate Silver. Again a tied poll now may mean a bigger bounce after the convention.
August 25, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are so worthless nationally.
In Ohio, however, the Republican Columbus Dispatch published their Ohio poll showing McSame only one point ahead with a large undecided, after McWar has flooded the state with ads for over a month.
Most Ohio polls show it close in Ohio, except Rasmussen, and their poll showing McLame ahead by 10 is a joke.
http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/08/24/copy/POLL24_method.ART0_ART_08-24-08_A10_IIB4CSJ.html?adsec=politics&sid=101
August 25, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great point. National polls don't mean anything. And despite McCain outspending Obama by a HUGE margin, Obama is dead even in Ohio. And after the convention Obama will really start dumping money into the state. Also worth a note: Obama leads by 3 in Virginia, says PPP.
http://www.pufferfish.typepad.com/
August 25, 2008 8:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
But USA Today/Gallup has Obama surging! How can this be?!
August 25, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
The same USA Today poll that made people here jump out of the window a few weeks ago that was showing Grampy McSame ahead by 4.
Oh well, only polls showing Obama losing due to pissed-off Hillary PUMAs can attract Eric's attention until the stake is driven through her heart.
August 25, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Latest poll has 30% of Hillary supporters not supporting Obama. That is an increase from previous polls.
Polls, polls, polls.
Unless one of the candidates pukes in the public's lap it's going to be a dead heat on election day. Given the predicted Bush backlash that has not and will not materialize, I'd say that scenario favors McCain.
August 25, 2008 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except, of course, the ABC/WaPo poll that completely contradicts this one and says that Clinton voter support for Obama is at its highest since the end of the primaries.
The situation seems ripe for cherrypicking and McCain still wavers hopelessly between a 5-point loss and a tie.
August 25, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the Hillary people will come around after the convention. This is their last protest.
August 25, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
It depends on what numbers you want to look at.
WaPo/ABC shows that Clinton voters are already coming around and have reached the highest level of support for Obama since the GE began.
August 25, 2008 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you are right.
August 25, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe how Obama has already thrown the election. He had a duty to put his ego aside and heal the Democratic party by choosing the woman who represents the other half of the party. He failed in that duty. And most voters (as evidenced by this most recent poll) will inevitably come to the conclusion that his ego will prevent him from healing the nation as well. America is tired of the stubborn "I'm always right" kind of leader, and Obama has just proven that he's unable even to work with members of his own party, let alone reach across the isle.
Look for John McCain to pick Romney as VP, whom he passionately dislikes. Because in doing so, it will help to unite the Republican Party and show the American people that he can work with the same people who viciously attacked him in the primaries - even if he really never intends to.
Look for McCain to be well ahead after both conventions. And don't expect Obama to make it up in the debates either. He's already proven how weak he is in that arena. It disgusts me how easily this prima donna just flushed his own party down the toilet.
August 25, 2008 2:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! The only thing anyone's going to be 'looking' at is how WRONG you are... just like all your moronic predictions from the primaries!
August 25, 2008 2:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Duty my ass.
August 25, 2008 3:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fuckyou2, if Mcain were behind 20 points you'd say it was a positive indicator for him. You're as boring as a one-track computer program -- whatever the input, the output is always that it's a bad sign for Obama.
The only difference is that you insert phony "reasoning" in a failed attempt to mask the inane antics.
August 25, 2008 3:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Dispatch poll is probably the most accurate. These battleground states are really tight. This will all come down to ground game.
Who has got the better ground game.
August 25, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're right, there's not doubt about the answer there.
Gobama.
Gobiden.
August 25, 2008 1:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Defintely right, Dirk.
August 25, 2008 3:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Obama's problem are racist democrats, thanks for that little tidbit (I keed I keed)
August 25, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
All right, fine, so what are they trying to tell us? That McCain's uber-lame ad about Hillary's dissing Obama during the debates has actually found enough of Hillary's apocryphal "dumb old broad" vote to tank Obama? That a substantial percentage of "Democrats" are truly that uber-lame?
It seems that's the message, here.
August 25, 2008 12:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's get one thing straight. Anyone who votes for McCain is not a Democrat. They have forfeited any claim to the title.
August 25, 2008 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is it about Hillary? Or is it about Obama's association with William Ayers -- an admitted member of the radical Weatherman?
August 25, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Get lost, hag-troll.
August 25, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
When you say things like that I KNOW you are a gop hack or an ill informed individual.
August 25, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I'm sure this was worth 1 McCain point for this self-promoting creep.
August 25, 2008 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
And for Christ's sake, learn the issues before you troll about them.
"Admitted member of the radical weathermen?" No shit?
You look like a moron. I suspect that this perception is accurate.
August 25, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen her post a few things that seemed well-intentioned. That comment seemed provocative, but it might be worth giving the benefit of a doubt.
August 25, 2008 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Rita sure is a funny name for a boy troll.
August 25, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary supporters are LITERALLY going against their own interests to vote against a fellow democrat because of a grudge or some other hidden agenda. You know what, if we lose this election I am switching over to a republican. At least THEY know how to coalesce around the damn nominee, even if they don't like him. I'll neva vote for a democrat again, I can't be part of a party of fools.
August 25, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I understand your frustration (honestly), but think about what you're writing. Your threatened response only validates theirs.
And remember, the MSM is trying to convince us there's more division than there really is. They're the real problem here. There are unique demographic variables to contend with in just about every presidential election.
August 25, 2008 1:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Noticed McCain kicking Romney in the face lately?
Obama has only himself to blame -- he hasn't figured out that he has to reach out to Clinton and her supporters because he is so busy blaming them for not loving him.
After his attempts to forstall even having a role call vote on Hillary just how voluntary do you think that her releasing her delegates is going to look? Just how pleased are her supporters going to be if those same delegates desert her and betray the voters who elected them to vote for her if they vote for someone else?
It's not as though Obama were wildly ahead of her in the popular vote in the primaries.
The arrogance and the disdain shown by Obama and his supporters for dissenting view points and the rights of others is strongly remminiscent of George Bush.
August 25, 2008 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
So will someone please tell me what is it that either Hillary or her "no surrender" gang of supporters will stand to gain from undermining and perhaps sabotaging the Obama candidacy?
If you think that Hillary is already a polarizing figure, just imagine the wrath of the various elements of the coalition that Obama has lit up if she tries to run in 2012. Her negatives would would be through the roof to make her unelectable and the supreme court would be to the right of Ghengis Khan. Nice result for all concerned - NOT!
August 25, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
They don't stand to gain anything, and they're not going to try to undermine Obama's candidacy. The Clintons are smart people, with a lot of experience in politics; they understand everything you've just written. They're going to put on a decent show of support.
August 25, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton can then run in 2012 and - lose. Again.
August 25, 2008 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
What losers you are. You seem already resigned to the fact that Obama is going to lose in November, and all you're really concerned about is stopping Hillary in 2012. Let me tell you - after Obama blows this election - an election that even Kerry could could have won in a landslide - nobody in their right mind is ever going to listen to the likes of you again. So go find another party to sabotage and another country to destroy, losers.
August 25, 2008 2:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
BWAHAHAHA!
Actually, we won the primaries. You are the loser and perhaps the biggest SORE loser in electoral history!
Pathetic!
August 25, 2008 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have to give MAJOR PROPS to Howard Dean supporters in 2004. Instead of whining and moaning that Howard Dean didn't win, those supporters joined with John Kerry to try to win the White House.
Some of these supporters just need to get over themselves.
I can't stand that this convention has to do so much with Hillary and Bill.
It's time to TURN THE PAGE.
August 25, 2008 1:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you -- as someone who held his nose and voted for John Kerry, I get really irritated by HRC supporters talking about voting for John McCain.
And I would have voted for Hillary, too. Hell, I started out a Hillary supporter until Obama won me over.
August 25, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
George Bush won 93% of the damn republican vote. WHY, WHY can't democrats realize that sitting on your hands because you don't LIKE the nominee although he agrees with YOUR views so you rather let the other guy (who has no intention to care to YOUR views) win. Thus taking you one step back from YOUR views. Unbelievable. It's so frustrating I will, I will become a registered republican if we lose this election. It would have only been our own fault.
August 25, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't draw confident conclusions from this one poll . . . but it could well be that a certain slice of Hillary supporters were holding on to an unrealistic hope that HRC would get the nod, and were disappointed by the VP announcement.
The job of the convention will be to woo them back. Fingers crossed. I think the most important hour of the convention is Hillary's speech. Even Obama's acceptance speech, probably, matters less.
August 25, 2008 1:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
You really believe that the text message coming out at 3 AM (3.35 AM ET, actually) was intended as an insult to Senator Clinton?
Robert Gibbs said earlier today that they were planning to send it out later that morning, but since someone leaked the news to CNN, they scrambled to get the text out ASAP. Just as well, because I was pissed I heard it first from CNN, and I am sure I was not alone.
Paranoia will get you anywhere you want, but it still ain't rational.
August 25, 2008 1:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Damn sign-in. That was a reply to bugmenot at 12.22 AM.
August 25, 2008 1:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
He doesn't care. He's a Republican posing as a "disaffected Democrat," which, btw, is getting to be the most unoriginal troll schtick on the internet.
August 25, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
CNN really spoiled the surprise. Just awful.
August 25, 2008 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Real Clear Politics has it a dead heat in the polls and in the Electoral College.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
I'm still not sure how I feel about the Biden choice. It certainly gives the campaign experience and fighting spirit. Lord knows I've been begging for Obama to fight back.
I suspect, however, that turnout is going to be key in November. I don't think Biden rallies the base and unifies the party like Hillary could have. This also opens up the meme that Obama couldn't fight back so he brought in someone to fight for him.
Biden is a safe, strategic choice. I'm just not convinced it's the best or the right one.
August 25, 2008 1:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
What about the association of the Clintons with the same man? They pardoned him for god's sake!
August 25, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
We're not voting people here, we are voting issues. So therefore, if these people are that shallow that they would put their selfishness before their country's needs, then they will get what they deserve. Pretty much the total demise of America, what there is left of it.
August 25, 2008 2:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone who votes for McCan't is not a democrat. Any democrat who votes for McCan't is beyond redemption and if they are actively supporting McCan't, we need to laugh at their posts and realize that they are low intelligence voters. In Fact, stupid voters! Hillary supporters who vote for McCan't are properly labled the "Vagina" voters" who can't think beyond gender!
Obama is our nominee and he respects us and we must support and get him elected at all costs!
August 25, 2008 2:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any woman that votes for McCain will be sorry with the first Supreme Court vacancy. Then the whining will be too late.
August 25, 2008 2:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
How perfectly true! And yet here they are, proudly gathering up pistols to shoot themselves in the head, with a vindictiveness and indignation that seems to say, "Now watch this!"
August 25, 2008 3:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is disappointing to see TPM placing this as a Headline...
There are more than one poll, and why this one is on the front page?
August 25, 2008 2:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with this. Why is this the poll the one that gets headlined on this page when there are other more positive polls out there? At least include the results of those.
August 25, 2008 2:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Having watched CNN foment a perceived rift between Clinton and Obama, where I don't believe one exists, followed by a poll that is mysteriously different than others released close in time, raises that cynical side of me that says they're no longer in it for the journalism -- they're in it for the ratings.
August 25, 2008 2:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you were going for snark because that was brilliant! CNN? Couldn't be....
August 25, 2008 2:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't understand, honestly, the emotional committment one has for either Obama or Clinton. It seems to go against what Obama in particular stands for-the election being about Americans and not about a particular candidate. I supported and still support Obama but if Hillary was the nominee, I'd support her. The Democratic Platform is most important in the end.
Clinton supporters have to realize that the candidate has to choose a runningmate *they* feel comfortable with. I STRONGLY URGE the hardcore Clinton backers to see that theirs, their children's and the Country's best interests lie naturally with electing a Democratic administration.
I can't put it more plainly than that.
August 25, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. The Columbus Dispatch Ohio poll is the worst, most inaccurate poll in the United States according to Nate Silver's poll rankings at fivethirtyeight.com, so take no comfort in its finding McCain only ahead by 1 point.
2. The ABC/WaPo poll was taken entirely before the Biden pick. Two of the three days of the USA Today polling were before the Biden pick.
3. The drop for Obama in the pro-Obama CNN poll after Biden is not good for Obama, but as others have noted it provides the base for a greater convention bounce in the first post-convention CNN poll.
Keep your eyes on the tracking polls this week.
August 25, 2008 2:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, tracking poll has Obama +3, faggot! Bwahahaha!
August 25, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's the Rasmussen tracking poll which stayed the same between Sunday and Monday morning (Obama +3) so no bounce today for Barack now teamed up with Biden in Rasmussen. And watch your language, lousy human.
August 25, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes as the MSM has been trying to push a rift between the Clintons and Obama along with the McCain camp... their does appear to be a bias in favor of numbers tht reflect their story.
I have to believe that in the end the Hillary supporters will not vote spitefully and do damage to themselves and the rest of us but think about the real damage another four more years of Bush policies could do, and if they can't vote for the man... at least vote to preserve choice for women and to protect whatever civil liberties we may have left by the time GW leaves office.
August 25, 2008 2:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe you should have a talk with Michelle Obama. When they asked her if she would vote for Hillary if Hillary became the nominee she said "I will have to think about it".
August 25, 2008 3:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Out for a moonlight troll again? When they asked Hillary to back the nominee at the convention she said she needed to use it for catharsis for her supporters. Supporters in *what?!*, one might ask.
August 25, 2008 3:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well we will see if Michelle Obama was a good choice to kick things off with. I personally am not so sure she was a good pick. The Daily Gallup also had a tie. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109753/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Tied-45.aspx But is looks like there is an issue at http://www.bop-o-rama.com. The Clintons really need to step up here and get the party on track.
August 25, 2008 3:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a suggestion: Let's not panic if Obama gets little or no bounce from the Convention. The Clintons may well ruin it. Obama will need to win with hard work, ground game, turning the attack machine on its ear.
August 25, 2008 4:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I. AM. SO. SICK. OF. THE. CLINTONS.
Gee, I wonder why Obama didn't pick Hillary. Maybe because when he didn't pick her it is all about her. What would it have been like if he did pick her?
I'm not sure a 100% blame the Clintons for their intrusion. The media loves the story line and will bring it up every single chance. Perhaps the convention is the last time they can do this? One can hope.
August 25, 2008 8:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I regret being negative, I do. I cannot honestly bring myself to believe that either of them will do what is required of them. Hillary will want to talk to her "supporters" (supporting *what?!!*), her newly discovered glass ceiling that somehow didn't contain Nancy Pelosi, and the importance of a woman making it so far and a great victory sometime ahead, ad nauseum. (And she'll explain how this hideously disloyal troublemaking was "important" to do.) Yes, she'll toss in some transparently insincere lines about Obama, and skads of tone-deaf listeners will give her false credit for that empty gesture. Bill will want to talk about Bill.
Need to win in spite of them.
August 25, 2008 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to Pastor Rick!
August 25, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I AM TOTALLY TIRED OF THE CLINTONS
They demonstrate the essence of poor 'losership'
If they are the great caring Americans that love their country why are they taking their personal grief of loss out by destroying the Democratic Party. Grow up people. This is not a run for class president, high school level . . . this is about the future of an entire nation!
August 25, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
People say I'm a Traitor turning my back on the people and party who elected me, but I'm a saint compared to the Hillary camp. According to CNN, 27% of Hillary voters are supporting McCain, up from 16% a month ago. I guess the strategy of allowing them "catharsis" and giving Hillary a roll-call vote on Wednesday is working great ... for McCain. Special thanks to Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and "Chicken" Harry Reid for this winning strategy.
Traitor Joe
August 25, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think we should all keep in mind that these are people who are *saying* they were Clinton supporters. Self-reports are notoriously unreliable. How do we know that these are Operation Chaos members who are just incredibly bored?
August 25, 2008 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Relax everyone. The problem is not the poll itself, but the analysis. A tied poll is to be expected within the margin of error if Obama is 2-3 points ahead as most polls show him to be DESPITE the problems these polls supposedly say exist (and which I think are exagerated because most voters dont think about politics the way the poll issue questions are asked and just answer them after the fact to support their choice, comebined with Obama voters being more willing to be positive about McCain than the other way around. The attitude of some Hillary supporters is now a test for Hillary herself. Will she use her convention speech to make it clear that a vote for McCain is a vote against everything she has been fighting for and that her supporters are voting against what she stands for, not just against Obama, if they vote for McCain. I think that she will make that clear.
August 25, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Amazing how Obama's support stays (almost) consistently in the upper 40s and McCain's jumps from low 40s to mid/high all the time. If I recall, Clinton's support did the same thing ... and she lost. Does less volatility in poll numbers count for anything in the analysis?
August 25, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
1. Good news for Obama in today's Suffolk Colorado poll (Obama +5). Barack's best Colorado margin in almost 6 months.
2. Good news for McCain in todays' Epic-MRA poll of Michigan with Obama only up 2. Romney would put him ahead there presumably.
Tonight's convention lineup is an unpopular one among Repubs and independents (according to polling data) featuring Pelosi and Michelle so I don't expect a Barack bounce in Tuesday morning's tracking polls.
August 25, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
This poll is an obvious outlier. They polled on Saturday night and Sunday, times when 18-34s are going to be out doing stuff. That's the demographic group that Obama dominates.
August 25, 2008 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, because everybody knows that only 18-34s go out to do stuff.
Good grief.
August 25, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blah blah "young people use cell phones" blah blah blah "they're out at a club" blah blah....
Come on. The Democrat (any democrat) should be 15 points up.
Why isn't Mr. Change?
August 25, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's the headline that should replace this one:
Obama Up by 5 in Colorado. TPM often emphasizes McCain's lead in swing states. Let's see if they'll do the same for Obama.
August 25, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would be interesting to see the subsamples in the CNN, but so far I am unable to find anything but their own article.
On Michigan, the 2 point poll is not good news for McCain. Another poll covering the same time shows Obama up 7 so these are probably just two polls on either side of Obama's probable actual lead in Michigan of 4 to 5 points.
August 25, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
And the USA Today article just shows how much of this Hillary thing is more media creation than real. Instead of saying that 70% of Clinton primary voters say they will vote for Obama, they phrase it as 47% say they are solid and 23% may change their minds so that they can use their misleading "more than half not sold" headline. In all polling at this point, around 1/4 of voters will say that they could still change their mind so there is nothing unusual about this 23% number. Further, the 30% who will either vote McCain or not vote(or are undecided) are not separated out in the article. How many of that 30% are actually McCain voters versus just being undecided or parking with Nader or McKinney for the time being as a form of protest. Apparently, the internals of this poll are not yet available at either USA Today or gallup.com so we have only the USA Today narrative to go by. Enough said.
August 25, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
In fact, this whole media cherrypicking of their polls for articles and analysis BEFORE releasing full results for public knowledge is very annoying. For people who insist upon the public's RIGHT TO KNOW, they sure are not too anxious for the public to know the reality of their poll results until AFTER they have a chance to spin them in line with the current narrative.
August 25, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama dropped 2 points overnight after picking Biden in the Gallup daily tracking poll and today it remains at 45% to 45%. Gallup says Obama has gotten no bounce from Biden.
There's a good chance McCain will pull into a 1-point lead in Gallup tomorrow after Michelle speaks tonight.
August 25, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn. I was going to complain about CNN ignoring the podium and talking in detail about the upcoming speed by Mrs. Oboma...and you're doing the same thing! I want to hear the speech unfettered by comments, opinion, what she is going to say...what parts are important and the relative significance
yada yada yada...(CNNs 'complete coverage' is damn near complete commentary.) Ah well. I can hope they will shut up enough so that I will hear the actual presentations...Something is going on, interesting-looking speakers but now I get commentary (That comtains information I've heard again and again...(Sigh)
August 25, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink