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Obama And McCain Tied In First Poll Since VP Announcement
A new CNN poll -- the first national survey since Joe Biden was picked as Barack Obama's running mate -- shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 47% each, compared to a 51%-44% lead for Obama from a month ago.
The poll was conducted Saturday through Sunday evening.
From the pollster's analysis: "The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most although not all of the support McCain has gained in that time."
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Yawn. Sigh.
August 24, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Except that to find this nugget they used Clinton's numbers from June not July. Also--Why not post the ABC poll from b>today that had Obama ahead by 4 (LV) or 6 (RV). I really want to understand this focus on the polls that have the worst numbers for Obama.
August 24, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent question. What's going on here?
Josh?
August 25, 2008 12:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. It seems as though the worst numbers get the posts, and CNN? I wouldn't trust that one.
August 25, 2008 2:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
National polls are meaningless.
August 25, 2008 6:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's also a new ABC/WaPo poll showing Obama up by 4 among likely voters, and by 6 among registered voters.
There's also a new USA Today/Gallup poll showing Obama up by 3 among likely voters. (This is a dramatic shift from the last USA Today/Gallup poll, which showed McCain up by 4).
And yet, this is the poll you post about, and plaster on the front page.
Sigh.
August 24, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably because, as the headline says, it's the First Poll Since VP Announcement.
C'mon, cut Eric some slack. He's staying up late just to give us nattering nabobs of negativism™ something to natter about. And he has to get up early to prepare the TPM EC Roundup for its regular 9:00 a.m. appearance.
Hey, I'm not thrilled about the poll's results either, but I do appreciate hearing about it.
August 25, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems, that TPM always headlines the bad news polls and buries the good news ones. Just as their headlines trumpet GOP talking points rather than refute them. And another thing, when they do highlight an "Obama Ahead" poll, the headline often cites an internal number that is great for McCain.
August 25, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, this is the poll you post about, and plaster on the front page.
Sigh.
Thou Shalt Only Post Good News At TPM Election Central, Eric! Didn't you get the memo?
August 25, 2008 2:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, taking polls on a SATURDAY NIGHT is always very good for Obama.
Sigh.
August 24, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Polls r nothing but fantasy. Obama wins in a landslide.
August 24, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
100+ EV. McSame is toast.
August 24, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN also said they allowed for cell phones and it did not make a difference! Yeah right!!
August 24, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, and how did they do that? Where is my phone call? The only one I got was asking me to vote to add a constitutional amendment defining marriage between a man and woman, as if.........
August 25, 2008 2:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
A tie poll now may mean a bigger bounce post convention.
August 25, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who did CNN poll? Senior citizen, bigots that live in rural America like Fox does?
August 25, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Zemer,
I just got back from San Antonio this weekend. Fox News was playing in everyone's home and in all the restaurants. The scroll under the Obama-Biden news said "McCain prepares attack ads" and "Michelle Obama fair game for smears." Totally Fixed News. They even tossed the words "socialist" and "communist" around. Talk radio was even worse - "Obama's a Muslim!" was a common theme for the hosts and callers. McCain bumper stickers everywhere. People really can be that stupid.
Rob
August 25, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny:
Nate over at fivethirtyeight.com has already posted at length about how this poll manipulates and misstates the data. Give it a look.
Eric should perhaps have read this as well. After all, if i can find it.........
August 25, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not quite - it was pointed out that there are some problems with the use of the Clinton supporters poll data to extrapolate on the *reason* and analysis behind the drop in Obama's lead, but the poll itself isn't effectively questioned, neither is its methodology, except for some criticism that some other info, topline results, cross-tab info, etc.
In other words, CNN last 3 polls did not release as much info as other polls did, its "conclusion" that Clinton supporters are turning to McCain is suspect, but there's no discernible reason to doubt the conduct of this poll or its results.
August 25, 2008 12:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
...except for some criticism that some other info, topline results, cross-tab info, etc. that have not been released.
Read the article *carefully*.
August 25, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gayithacan,
You just beat me to it, but here's the link:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/cnn-poll-suggests-trouble-for-obama-but.html
August 25, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Me too. I read Nate's analysis a long while ago. I don't trust this poll worth shit. CNN's track record of unbiased reporting is pretty bad this season.
August 25, 2008 12:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has only hismelf to blame for turning off Hillary supporters.
Obama slapped Hillary across the face with his 3AM text message announcement.
August 25, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, come on. You'd prefer McCain?
August 25, 2008 1:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep telling yourself it was all him. She did everything that reasonably could be asked to bring unity, but he spoiled it.
Keep telling yourself.
August 25, 2008 1:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! Any excuse will do for these psychos...
August 25, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
You Hillary Supporters are McCain's best weapon. GET OVER IT. Obama won fair and square. NO MORE CATHARSIS, no more whining. Support the Democratic nominee. What point are you trying to make, that you want 3 more right-wing Supreme court judges, Roe vs. Wade overturned and another $3 Trillion in Debt? KNOCK IT OFF WHINERS.
August 25, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting analysis by Nate Silver. Again a tied poll now may mean a bigger bounce after the convention.
August 25, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are so worthless nationally.
In Ohio, however, the Republican Columbus Dispatch published their Ohio poll showing McSame only one point ahead with a large undecided, after McWar has flooded the state with ads for over a month.
Most Ohio polls show it close in Ohio, except Rasmussen, and their poll showing McLame ahead by 10 is a joke.
http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/08/24/copy/POLL24_method.ART0_ART_08-24-08_A10_IIB4CSJ.html?adsec=politics&sid=101
August 25, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Great point. National polls don't mean anything. And despite McCain outspending Obama by a HUGE margin, Obama is dead even in Ohio. And after the convention Obama will really start dumping money into the state. Also worth a note: Obama leads by 3 in Virginia, says PPP.
http://www.pufferfish.typepad.com/
August 25, 2008 8:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
But USA Today/Gallup has Obama surging! How can this be?!
August 25, 2008 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
The same USA Today poll that made people here jump out of the window a few weeks ago that was showing Grampy McSame ahead by 4.
Oh well, only polls showing Obama losing due to pissed-off Hillary PUMAs can attract Eric's attention until the stake is driven through her heart.
August 25, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Latest poll has 30% of Hillary supporters not supporting Obama. That is an increase from previous polls.
Polls, polls, polls.
Unless one of the candidates pukes in the public's lap it's going to be a dead heat on election day. Given the predicted Bush backlash that has not and will not materialize, I'd say that scenario favors McCain.
August 25, 2008 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except, of course, the ABC/WaPo poll that completely contradicts this one and says that Clinton voter support for Obama is at its highest since the end of the primaries.
The situation seems ripe for cherrypicking and McCain still wavers hopelessly between a 5-point loss and a tie.
August 25, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the Hillary people will come around after the convention. This is their last protest.
August 25, 2008 12:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
It depends on what numbers you want to look at.
WaPo/ABC shows that Clinton voters are already coming around and have reached the highest level of support for Obama since the GE began.
August 25, 2008 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you are right.
August 25, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe how Obama has already thrown the election. He had a duty to put his ego aside and heal the Democratic party by choosing the woman who represents the other half of the party. He failed in that duty. And most voters (as evidenced by this most recent poll) will inevitably come to the conclusion that his ego will prevent him from healing the nation as well. America is tired of the stubborn "I'm always right" kind of leader, and Obama has just proven that he's unable even to work with members of his own party, let alone reach across the isle.
Look for John McCain to pick Romney as VP, whom he passionately dislikes. Because in doing so, it will help to unite the Republican Party and show the American people that he can work with the same people who viciously attacked him in the primaries - even if he really never intends to.
Look for McCain to be well ahead after both conventions. And don't expect Obama to make it up in the debates either. He's already proven how weak he is in that arena. It disgusts me how easily this prima donna just flushed his own party down the toilet.
August 25, 2008 2:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! The only thing anyone's going to be 'looking' at is how WRONG you are... just like all your moronic predictions from the primaries!
August 25, 2008 2:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Duty my ass.
August 25, 2008 3:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fuckyou2, if Mcain were behind 20 points you'd say it was a positive indicator for him. You're as boring as a one-track computer program -- whatever the input, the output is always that it's a bad sign for Obama.
The only difference is that you insert phony "reasoning" in a failed attempt to mask the inane antics.
August 25, 2008 3:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Dispatch poll is probably the most accurate. These battleground states are really tight. This will all come down to ground game.
Who has got the better ground game.
August 25, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're right, there's not doubt about the answer there.
Gobama.
Gobiden.
August 25, 2008 1:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Defintely right, Dirk.
August 25, 2008 3:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Obama's problem are racist democrats, thanks for that little tidbit (I keed I keed)
August 25, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
All right, fine, so what are they trying to tell us? That McCain's uber-lame ad about Hillary's dissing Obama during the debates has actually found enough of Hillary's apocryphal "dumb old broad" vote to tank Obama? That a substantial percentage of "Democrats" are truly that uber-lame?
It seems that's the message, here.
August 25, 2008 12:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let's get one thing straight. Anyone who votes for McCain is not a Democrat. They have forfeited any claim to the title.
August 25, 2008 1:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is it about Hillary? Or is it about Obama's association with William Ayers -- an admitted member of the radical Weatherman?
August 25, 2008 1:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Get lost, hag-troll.
August 25, 2008 1:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
When you say things like that I KNOW you are a gop hack or an ill informed individual.
August 25, 2008 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, I'm sure this was worth 1 McCain point for this self-promoting creep.
August 25, 2008 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
And for Christ's sake, learn the issues before you troll about them.
"Admitted member of the radical weathermen?" No shit?
You look like a moron. I suspect that this perception is accurate.
August 25, 2008 1:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've seen her post a few things that seemed well-intentioned. That comment seemed provocative, but it might be worth giving the benefit of a doubt.
August 25, 2008 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Rita sure is a funny name for a boy troll.
August 25, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary supporters are LITERALLY going against their own interests to vote against a fellow democrat because of a grudge or some other hidden agenda. You know what, if we lose this election I am switching over to a republican. At least THEY know how to coalesce around the damn nominee, even if they don't like him. I'll neva vote for a democrat again, I can't be part of a party of fools.
August 25, 2008 1:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I understand your frustration (honestly), but think about what you're writing. Your threatened response only validates theirs.
And remember, the MSM is trying to convince us there's more division than there really is. They're the real problem here. There are unique demographic variables to contend with in just about every presidential election.
August 25, 2008 1:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Noticed McCain kicking Romney in the face lately?
Obama has only himself to blame -- he hasn't figured out that he has to reach out to Clinton and her supporters because he is so busy blaming them for not loving him.
After his attempts to forstall even having a role call vote on Hillary just how voluntary do you think that her releasing her delegates is going to look? Just how pleased are her supporters going to be if those same delegates desert her and betray the voters who elected them to vote for her if they vote for someone else?
It's not as though Obama were wildly ahead of her in the popular vote in the primaries.
The arrogance and the disdain shown by Obama and his supporters for dissenting view points and the rights of others is strongly remminiscent of George Bush.
August 25, 2008 5:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
So will someone please tell me what is it that either Hillary or her "no surrender" gang of supporters will stand to gain from undermining and perhaps sabotaging the Obama candidacy?
If you think that Hillary is already a polarizing figure, just imagine the wrath of the various elements of the coalition that Obama has lit up if she tries to run in 2012. Her negatives would would be through the roof to make her unelectable and the supreme court would be to the right of Ghengis Khan. Nice result for all concerned - NOT!
August 25, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
They don't stand to gain anything, and they're not going to try to undermine Obama's candidacy. The Clintons are smart people, with a lot of experience in politics; they understand everything you've just written. They're going to put on a decent show of support.
August 25, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton can then run in 2012 and - lose. Again.
August 25, 2008 2:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
What losers you are. You seem already resigned to the fact that Obama is going to lose in November, and all you're really concerned about is stopping Hillary in 2012. Let me tell you - after Obama blows this election - an election that even Kerry could could have won in a landslide - nobody in their right mind is ever going to listen to the likes of you again. So go find another party to sabotage and another country to destroy, losers.
August 25, 2008 2:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
BWAHAHAHA!</