New McCain Ad: "He's The Original Maverick"
In this new ad, John McCain tries to achieve separation from George Bush by saying flat out that "we're worse off than we were four years ago." At the same time, McCain sidesteps direct criticism of the President and instead blames "Washington"...
"Washington's broken -- John McCain knows it," the announcer says, in what sounds like push-back against Barack Obama's frequent depiction of McCain as a creature of Washington. According to the McCain campaign, the ad will run in "key states."
The ad also tries to rekindle some of that old magic from 2000 by concluding that "he's the original maverick" -- another attempt to achieve separation from Bush by evoking distant memories of the pre-Bush-years McCain.
Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton responds:
"Senator McCain wants Americans to forget that during the Republican primary, he said that Americans were better off than we were eight years ago, and that he thinks we've made 'great progress economically.' He wants us to forget that he's fully embraced the Bush policies he once opposed, and bragged about supporting those policies 'more than 90 percent of time.' The truth is, being a maverick isn't practicing the same kind of politics we have seen from Washington for decades, it isn't having a campaign run by Washington lobbyists, and it's certainly not promoting the same policies that have led America down the wrong path these past eight years."
Note the reference to "eight years" to offset McCain's claim that we're worse off than we were four years ago.
Late Late Update: More response from the Obama camp, including a video flash-back, is right here.
I was just on the verge of posting Dorothy Parker's wonderful review of Winnie the Pooh:
Tonstant weeder twowed up -
Then the vid got to the line: "He'll reform Wall Street..."
And I started laughing so damn hard I almost tipped my chair over backwards.
O my god - that ad is priceless.
August 5, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'd like to see him just try to drive out Gordon Gekko. We'll see how that one turns out.
August 5, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Probably not a good idea to listen to his ad while driving a car.
August 5, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're also worse off than we were eight years ago, wonder why . . .
August 5, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's pretty clear what McCain means. We got really well off between 2001 and 2004 probably due to the Bush tax cuts and the invasion of Iraq, and now we have gone backward since 2004, but we are still better off than we were in 2000. So if 2000 was a 5 on a scale of 1 to 10, then 2004 was a 9 and 2008 is a 6. And I bet all of that decline from 9 to 6 has happened over the last 18 months since January 2007 when Democrats took over. See, he's not inconsistent; the math works.
August 5, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maverick? The old man was involved in a major scandal in the 80s and most. Please...McDope is a joke.
August 5, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maverick? The old man was involved in a major banking scandal in the 80s and most recent with Vicki Iseman and lobbyist. Please...McDope is a joke.
August 5, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought the headline was being snarky ... the ad actually uses the phrase "The Original Maverick" ... mwahahahahaha! Okay, that's pathetic!
August 5, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't the original Maverick a card player in the Old West in the 1800s?
Actually, yeah, that might have been McCain.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 5, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh my, you beat me to it. When I read the headline my thoughts went to the TV show that had that guy on it . .. I'm a little vague about it because IT WAS SO LONG AGO but I was thinking surely McLame doesn't want to call himself the ORIGINAL Maverick does he? really?
August 5, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"New McCain Ad: "He's The Original Maverick"
That's going to come as a rather disconcerting claim from the ORIGINAL Maverick family of San Antonio ... who were rather notable DEMOCRATS. Look up Maury Maverick. Liberal Democrats of L O N G standing.
August 5, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
This ad just goes to show that mcFuddle's campaign logic is all over the place. So, we're not better off...and we'll just put old Mcfuddle in there to continue down this same path....OMG..this ad will not work at all!
August 5, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to hear this in an ad from the Obama campaign: the "original maverick" has voted with the President, WHEN HE ACTUALLY GETS AROUND TO VOTE, 100% of the time.
What's original, or maverick, about that?
August 5, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Both McSame and BigO have missed a lot of votes during this campaign, so I don't think an attack from that angle would be effective.
I'm saddened to hear of James Garner's recent stroke. He'd be great in a few McSame-busting ads, and I think he'd be willing, but it's pretty much out of the question now.
August 5, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Note that McCain missed more votes than Obama even when both were not running for POTUS. This is why McCain's call yesterday for Congress to get back to work was especially hypocritical.
August 5, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg: can you find out if this will run in the same states and with the same weight as the Celeb ad?
August 5, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clearly they are trying to reintroduce the McCain brand. They are assuming Obama is like John Kerry and won't pounce. I don't think that is a safe assumption. I don't know about you, but this ad opens so may counter punch options I would be shocked if the Obama media crew isn't working on a response right now.
August 5, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this does two things:
- continue contrast to Obama's Celebrity
- reinforce his Maverick
The question is whether or not Obama should ignore this. If not, then how to respond.
The worst he can do is come up with something insulting and overtly personal, like that Idiot also known as Kerry invited him to do.
Then GOP will turn him into Britney beating up an SUV with an umbrella.
August 5, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
As pointed out in a previous thread, this is a huge opening for Obama?
"We're worse off than we were 4 years ago?" Really? Cue images of McCain hugging Bush and videos of McCain campaigning for him. Talk about failed judgment.
August 5, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The key here is that he says we're not better off now than 4 years ago? Well? Guess what happened four years ago?!
McCain enthusiastically endorsed and campaign for George W. Bush.
It's an opening for the Obama camp:
http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/08/05/new-mccain-ad-provides-huge-opening-for-obama/
August 5, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's hoping they take it, and run with it.
If they don't, then I will start to wonder.
But relax everyone--I'll still donate time and dollars to the campaign....
August 5, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy shit! hahaha, where was this John Kerry 4 years ago?!?!
Via Daily Dish:
"I don't know if you know this. John McCain is looking for someone for vice president who has more economic expertise than he does. So congratulations to all of you, you’re on the short list," - John Kerry.
August 5, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!
Damn Terry McAuliffe - I swear he made Kerry stifle himself.
That was great -
August 5, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know, that's gold, isn't it? I'd love to see a variation of that joke made by many surrogates on TV.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 5, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's refreshing to watch these politicians when they're not running for prez anymore. Gore is also a lot more entertaining now than he was on the campaign trail.
August 5, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read that and it put a huge smile on my face.
August 5, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely hilarious.
August 5, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
August 5, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's campaign has become manic-depressive.
Short term gain, long-term pain.
August 5, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sharp move...very sharp
Consider the recent time line
- Obama's world tour eats press coverage
- McCain begins attack on media for too much O coverage
- attack continues through last week joined with hard hitting personal attack campaign
- now we'll see the personal attacks tapering off and McCain trying to resurrect the moderate maverick myth so as to avoid having Bush and the GOP hung about his neck
August 5, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the Obama campaign doesn't tie McCain to Bush so tightly that they'll be confused as Siamese twins, I'm going to be deeply disappointed.
The "moderate maverick myth" shouldn't be allowed the light of day, because the simpering idiots in the media will be all over it, more than they already are.
August 5, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not "confused as Siamese twins", but rather "mistaken for conjoined twins".
August 5, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are times when you just have to give the devil his due. If you just step back from the day to day tactics and look at the pattern over the past 2-3 weeks, you have to concede that the McCain camp has a strategy, that they aren't the befuddled bunch that we were so eager to portray them as being
August 5, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Same here. Almost every Democratic ad for President as well as Senate and House seats should include a photo of the candidate with Bush and a message about their records in support of Bush policies. I just can't see a more successful formula. Even in my Republican district, Bush is extremely unpopular. It helped sink the Republican in Hastert's old seat.
August 5, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
The hug says it all. McCain is going to be tied to Bush for the rest of his life.
August 5, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, I just tried posting a comment, and it was held for approval? What's that about?
August 5, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Happens randomly.
August 5, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
never met a commenting program that wasn't buggy and this one sure is.
August 5, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's the Original Maverick, except when he's not.
I take it this is the ad for the Olympics?
August 5, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
There may be method to the madness (yeah, I know, but hey, there's a first time for everything.) I'm guess this is the spot, or one of the spots they're going to be running in his recent panic-stricken "me too" six million dollar Olympic ad buy.
I guess someone in McFuddleberg finally decided that letting Obama be up at the Olympics alone worse than blowing through six million they couldn't really afford.
The truth is that there were only least bad options for them on the Olympic buy. I don't think they can afford it (unless there's some primary money-general election money angle I'm missing) and both of them being on robs them of the "look at that, er, presumptious elitist, advertising on the Olympics who does he think he is, anyway?" campaign they were probably planning. But just letting Obama be there alone, monopolizing Olympic eyeballs was a bad choice too.
August 5, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
They have to spend their money now, because after the convention, it's gone.
I wonder about the contrast between all those talented and physically gorgeous athletes with McCain is going to come across.
Obama's going to look pretty good.
Sure, I realize I'm revealing the extent of my superficiality, but hey, we're among friends, right?
August 5, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is still spending primary money. He can't spend any general funds yet, as he isn't officially the nominee and as such hasn't gotten his $84M check yet.
August 5, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
McBush is a maverick alright a Maverick OLD TROLL
August 5, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about we have a contest to who can find the best current youtube vid that best rebuts this ad?
August 5, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
With, what, a 10 second time limit?
August 5, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
This ad can easily be debunked with a powerful ad with McCain praising Bush, hugging Bush, etc.
Obama needs to continue to tag McCain as Bush's third term whether it is the economy, energy, Iraq War.
August 5, 2008 12:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed.
He needs to keep hitting that and not let up. Just like McCain is doing with the celebrity bullshit, Obama needs to drive home "Bush Third Term" idea.
August 5, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
You beat me to it- I knew I shouldn't have refreshed the page. ;)
Just show a picture of that sweaty bear hug.
show pictures from the '04 campaign - they were on Bush's campaign helicopter together and I remember loads of pics of McLame yukking it up with Jenna, McLame in the front row of Bush campaign speeches - on and on.
August 5, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been agitating for the Shrub Hug to be part of the ads, but I bet they're keeping that one for post-Labor day.
And, judging from this mavericky ad, they'll have lots to hang around McCain's campaign while viewers are treated to the Shrub Hug.
IN fact, I make a prediction that the Shrub Hug debuts the week after the Republican convention.
August 5, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
The man's been a Senator for over 20 years! How the hell is he pulling this off?! He's running as if he's a governor instead of someone who's had the power to change the country for more than two decades before he even started running!
I can't believe this shit. John McCain is an outsider?!
August 5, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
This one took me about a minute - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm9rLDU-SiE
August 5, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
"On the most important issues, the transcendant issues, I have fully supported President Bush".
Over and over and over and over and over.
August 5, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's latest ad says that McCain has been in the Senate for 26 years and has voted AGAINST energy independence. Obama is saying that McCain is part of the problem.
The important thing about this ad is that instead of the GOP and the Dems trying to get out in framing Obama, now it will be the GOP vs the Dems in trying to frame McCain.
McCain is now becoming the story not Obama.
The Obama campaign needs to hit HARD on McCain=Bush.
This McCain ad is a push back from Obama's last 2 ads in which he links McCain=Bush.
August 5, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope y'all will forgive a bit of partial re-post.
I like this new ad because it underlines McCranky's age (his 26 years in Congress) without explicitly saying anything about it. It tempts McSame to accuse BigO of playing the age card, though I think the Old Fart's handlers are unlikely to take the bait.
What would make this ad more effective is following it with similar ads in the next few days. Keep underlining his age. Keep trotting out his looong career in the Senate, and how he's accomplished very little despite being on both sides of so many issues.
The point is to keep hitting him from the same angle for several days (at least), instead of punching him here and there according to his vulnerability du jour.
August 5, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think your avatar is insulting. To simians.
August 5, 2008 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think "he's the original maverick" is intended to steal Obama's advantage on that issue.
The funny thing about McCain is I didn't realize just how much of an "insider" he is until he ran for President.
It's like a club. The DC media and The Maverick. He directs ads to them. He preens for them. They really are his base. It's disconcerting for a regular viewer to watch the media and McCain: they recount cute stories, they reminisce, they volunteer personal opinions of his "character".
I don't know that they're even aware of it.
August 5, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that like the original Batman TV series?
August 5, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another from MoveOn - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQgJl9d5KCQ
(watch out it has a celebrity in it though...)
August 5, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope this does not seem like a trivial point, but there were no references to McCain's claims. To me, this is the first indication that an ad is fast and loose with the facts.
I love all the suggestions about reinforcing McCain's ties to Bush, especially Maritza's comment which suggested that Obama show clips of McCain endorsing Bush.
And, it can never be emphasized enough that McCain voted for Iraq, did not vote for CAFE standards, and wants to make Bush tax cuts permanent.
August 5, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay I win my own contest - this one takes the cake.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U5KZzgaB2k&feature=related
McCain brags on O'Reilly for voting and cmapaigning for Bush in 2000 and 2004 and enjoying it and doing everything he could to get him elected.
August 5, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo.
That should be emailed to the Obama campaign.
August 5, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
A thought crossed my mind.
So, we think Obama should hit McCain back on his support for Bush in 2004 and somehow tie that into "McCain is to blame for us being worse off now than we were 4 years ago."
But wouldn't that also possibly alienate a lot of people who supported and voted for Bush in 2004 and have since changed their mind? If we're gonna put some blame on McCain for Bush's failure, wouldn't he also be putting some blame on those who voted for Bush and who he now wants to vote for him?
August 5, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe not voting for McCain would be a chance at redemption of sorts. Bush has a sub 30% approval rating, there is a lot of people not happy with how they voted.
Besides the interesting play could be that McCain has to come out harder to seperate himself from Bush and in turn turns off the Bush dead-ender base.
August 5, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's gonna "battle Big Oil" for what? The lunch tab?
No, give me that. I'm getting lunch. I insist.
August 5, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ol' maverick really is offensive. Really.
From Ben Smith:
Maybe no one told him this detail. Maybe someone on his staff should have.
Either way....
August 5, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can you just imagine the media uproar if Obama had appeared somewhere similar and said the same things? It's just unbelievable.
August 5, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The election would have been over today, had Obama gone to that rally, and said what McCain said.
August 5, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean Obama offering up Cindy McCain to the crowd? Yeah, that wouldn't go over real well.
If I were McCain (retch!) I'd leave Cindy out of things. I don't think having a much younger second wife is a campaign asset for him. Particularly if it lets Obama (or surrogates) get into the circumstances of McCain leaving his (crippled) first wife after she stood by as a POW Wife.
August 5, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still think McCain giving Bush that bear hug says it all. Remember McSame iniatiated the hug. All the decider wanted to do was shake his hand.
August 5, 2008 12:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain saying he is actually similar to Bush is the best ad out there.
Hopefully we will see this ad out soon from the Obama campaign.
In June Obama was trying to link McCain with Bush in terms of the Iraq War. He was constantly saying the Bush/McCain war.
In August Obama is trying to link McCain with Bush in terms of Energy by saying McCain=Bush=Big Oil.
Hopefully in September through election day Obama not only links McCain with Bush in terms of the Iraq War and Energy but the Economy as a whole.
Obama should be saying every day "the Bush/McCain Economy".
August 5, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Washington's broken -- John McCain knows it..."
He's been part of it for 26 years.
"...we're worse off than we were four years ago."
Even if he thought we're better off than 8 years ago...
"...he's the original maverick."
Even if he endorses Bush policies most of the time and he changes positions when the conservative base is uncomfortable (immigration reform, anyone...)
This ad is a gift of heaven to the Obama campaign: They can use it in so many ways that it could be the tipping point in the media war.
Things are looking good, but the battle is still long. The game is not over until it's over.
August 5, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh, McCain's campaign is swift on its feet, this is a very smart move!!! :(
McCain just pre-emptively produced the ad (which hammers home the terrible state we're in, reminds the voters the Bushies are responsible for the disasters) I said Obama SHOULD air asap...:( ...He is darn crafty - this is innoculation against being associated with Bush and the Republican disasters....
The message - he knows the voters are in pain, he empathizes with them, he's not one of the insiders that brought about this pain. He's an independent...:( He's repackaging himself...fast, faster and smarter than Obama. If Obama lets him get away with this, painting him as an empty, arrogant elite and reintroducing himself to the voters, he will get into trouble.
UGH!!!!
August 5, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bear hug isn't going to hurt McCain...Rumsfeld was never tainted or doubted because of his warm handshake of Saddam Hussein. Voters know politicians do this for show and they fake these things, kissing babies, grasping of waving palms while an aide hold out a bottle of disinfectant, etc. The stories playing up Bush-McCain animosity are helping McCain distance himself, and Cheney might not even show up at the GOP Convention.
If he succeeds at convincing voters of his new image, watch out...
August 5, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
As usual, no matter the situation, it's to McCain's benefit and Obama's disadvantage for you.
August 5, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
As usual, you're ignoring the lessons of 2004.
August 5, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know nothing about me, qwerty, and your accusations that anyone who disagrees with you is ignoring 2004 are getting tiresome.
Don't lecture me that I must not remember 2004.
You're relatively new here, and every single comment has been "Obama is off his game". You sound, in other words, very much like a concern troll. If you have a problem with that characterization, perhaps you ought to come up with something more original than "Obama is off his game".
August 5, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I gave a blow-by-blow breakdown of how McCain is playing this, and playing exceedingly well. The polls are reflecting this, ALL the polls. Instead of being angry at me for handing this to McCain, perhaps maybe you tell me exactly how I have been wrong, but not just from your "gut" feelings, please. Show me what Obama is doing right, right now.
I'm frustrated, I don't want a McCain win, but when the race is turning this way, it doesn't help to shoot down the messenger and critic.
This was the failure of Hillary's campaign - there were so many signs, articles, write-ups, polls, that showed her campaign was running into trouble and Obama is catching up on her, she IGNORED them. She's the presumptive front-runner after all. She finally did fire her weak hands, changed tactics, but it was too much and too late. She had lost momentum.
We were crowing how Obama overcame a serious handicap of -20 points, ran a great ground game, invigorated his base, how his campaign was swift on its feet, came from behind, etc....and now we cannot see that McCain's campaign is doing this very same to Obama, and with a much closer margin?
August 5, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
This has been a close race, and anyone who expected some sort of Obama blowout was wildly over optimistic. I never thought that he would, and neither did many people around here.
Obama isn't Kerry. That doesn't mean he's going to blow out McCain, but it also means he's not going to make the mistakes that Kerry did.
Everyone criticizes Obama for not being more aggressive in the spring, when Clinton was making the mad dash to nowheresville. He didn't have to be overly aggressive--he was ahead, and he made an excellent judgement that he was going to stay ahead. That takes guts and intelligence to do that. What makes you think he's not doing the same thing here?
Because he's not responding the way you want him to, the way you wanted Kerry to? This isn't Kerry, it's not 2004, and the candidate who managed to pull off the most stunning upset in primary history might have other tricks up his sleeve.
And since you mentioned the polls, Obama's lead in the Gallup increased, second day in a row.
August 5, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I guess that's why he overwhelmingly won his re-election for Secretary of Defense.
August 5, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep your head ever more deeply buried in the ground...Rumsfeld was booted because the Iraq war turned SOUR, because of Abu Ghraib, not because of that ONE picture.
Or he would have been finished before 2003 when that picture was circulated!!!
August 5, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was just trying to point out that your comparison was ridiculous. You apparently (not surprisingly) missed that.
August 5, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama and the Democrats are too stupid and/or timid to not respond with an ad using McCain's quotes blaming Bush and then doesn't use all McCain's other quotes where he not only supports Bush's policies, but doubles down on them, then he doesn't deserve to win the election. Show some cajones man!
It's just like in the 2004 debate when an audience member asked Bush if he'd made any mistakes in the past 4 years and he said none were. Kerry had been served a knee-high pitch right down the center of the plate and he just stood there like a deer in headlights. I still remember screaming (at the TV), "Now finish off you idiot."
I loathe the Republicans, but it is kind-of true that the Democrats can be incredibly weak and timid.
August 5, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out this press release from the McCain campaign...
McCain ad pushes independence, distance from Bush
...oh I'm sorry -- that's AP.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080805/ap_on_el_pr/obama
August 5, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Check out this attack from the McCain campaign..
Critical of McCain, Obama quiet on own energy vote
...oh I'm sorry -- that's AP.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080805/ap_on_el_pr/mccain
August 5, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry to say, Obama is off his game.... McCain's offensive and defensive strategies are quite clear now aren't they????
And they are GOOD, darn it. They anticipated our strategy to tar him with Bush and his failed policies, but he's putting out a very effective counter-move.
If we're using a Chess tournament analogy, he is the master of his game now - he's repeating Rovian moves that have worked before as attack memes and has devised strategies to defend and innoculate himself against Obama's most effective attack against him, i.e. he is part of the juggernaut that brought America to its kneels, which have YET to even surface.
He and his surrogates will increasingly redefine the "real" McCain this way. We don't buy it, but maybe enough of the Independents and Swings will, especially if they perceive Obama as empty, presumptuous and politically opportunistic, etc.
And please stop encouraging Obama to do NOTHING, stay cool, keep the faith, etc.
August 5, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what the hell...there's no point to get on a site that goes "Don't worry, be happy, keep the faith, the polls are wrong, ignore the critics, Obama knows what to do, etc."
The Hillary people may be right about the Kool-Aid thing after all.
For sure, the ridiculed "Chicken Littles" share the same cramped coop with a fellow avian species the Ostrich.
August 5, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign hasn't even started to "tar him with Bush" wrt to campaign ads. Yesterday's ad was the first one featuring the imagery of McCain and Bush, and here you are, 24 hours later, pronouncing that it isn't going to have any effect.
As I said, your comments center around "Obama is off his game" and "The McCain campaign is doing an excellent job".
Interesting.
August 5, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
'Interesting?"
Pray explain.
August 5, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I'm sorry to say that that is entirely your opinion - that Obama is "off his game."
I think his "game" is bigger than a lot of people realize.
August 5, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
You need to show some tangible proof of this belief in his "bigger game". So far, I saw a lot of squandered chances. It's August, there's still time to turn this around, but the polls are showing that voters are starting to come round to his way of thinking and presentation.
All of Obama's capitulation to the so-called "centrist" positions has not won him more votes, in fact, he's losing his hold on the younger, more left-leaning voters who are disillusioned with his votes on FISA, Off Shore Drilling, etc.
He is looking more and more like an Establishment candidate, someone who is politically expedient, who will "change" with the winds. And voila, here comes McCain the Maverick, the anti-Washington, experienced but independent who was himself amBushed.
He is losing grip on the persona that won him that slim lead which he needed to widen. He should be pulling away, not having McCain catch up on him.
August 5, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
okay, either offer suggestions as to how Obama can improve, or go cash in your agent provocature McCainiac points for a cup holder or something.
August 5, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I did, so did a *few* others on the TPM. I said right away when McCain launched his "Obama went to the Gym" ads that he had to hit back, but to do it in a way that brings back the Bread & Butter issues and tar McCain with them, before it's too late, as the Blitzkrieg will surely follow. I was called "Chicken Little" for my efforts, and now my other fear is materializing, McCain's playing BOTH Offense and Defense now.
On another thread, a quiet one, a few of us were discussing the "chess moves" Obama should anticipate and what he can unleash, but of course we're the Chicken Littles huddled in our coop.
What I don't appreciate are the none-too-subtle insinuations that somehow, by pointing out McCain's rather effective maneuvres and to urge action that I'm killing morale and really working to subvert Obama.
August 5, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not nearly as alarmed as Qwerty, but I reckon we should cut her some slack here. This is not the primaries and non-Democratic, low-information voters (and there are A LOT more of them in the general) are a lot less forgiving once a candidate has been defined for them. The Democrats have SO MUCH MORE to run on than in 2004, yet they seem to holding off their guns. It makes no sense. Obama has to be proactive here and run like he's 20-points down in the polls. If McCain defines him early-on (and, unlike most of us here at TPM; low information voters have paid scant attention to the primaries), he could be in big trouble.
She's just delivering a point of view nobody wants to hear. I hope she's dead-wrong, but we'd be foolish to so easily dismiss her.
Keep posting Qwerty; sometimes the news we don't like hearing is the most valuable.
August 5, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Qwerty would have a little more credibility is Qwerty hadn't just told me that McCain is ahead, or tied, with Obama in ALL THE POLLS.
August 5, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Misstating a few facts does not negate her entire line of reasoning though. Like I said; I hope she's wrong (and a number of people posting here, including CT voter, make some very good points too), but I still think we're only harming ourselves by not being just a little bit worried. If anything is going to kill Obama, it's overconfidence.
August 5, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you credibly run against Washington, when you've been there for 29 years? MSM will we here that question come from you?
August 5, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Qwerty,
The sky is not falling. McCain=Bush mem is way more powerful than McCain is Maverick especially since McCain has been shooting himself in the foot every day with his negativity.
Obama has put out 2 ads linking McCain with Bush. If he and his surrogates say this every day from now until election complete with ads with McCain saying he is just like Bush than that frame is perfect.
August 5, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
You say it's just "my opinion", but at least I supported my opinions with some factual evidence, eg. polls. Your opinion is that McCain is "shooting himself in the foot", can you provide some evidence that all his antics and tactics have backfired on him, not just what you "feel", but some tangible evidence that the voters are disgusted and turning away from him in droves?
August 5, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I missed the "factual evidence" that you refer to.
If you're going to talk about polling data, better make sure you're not cherry picking.
If you're going to point to 538's models, Obama was down to 292 projected electoral votes a couple of weeks ago, then up to 302, now back to 294. In other words, this is a volative situation.
If you're operating from the assumption that Obama should be blowing out McCain, then I will agree, he's in trouble right now.
I never have (see above). This was going to be close.
In an ideal world, of course Obama would be blowing out McCain. Probably ANY Democrat would. We live in a world where people don't actually know what's going on in politics, thanks to our fucked up media.
August 5, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Cherry picking"? ALL of the polls showed McCain are tied with or slightly ahead of Obama.
The nature of the Primary and the available delegates makes it a game of Math, but the GE is very different. Obama's strengths were Caucuses but his weaknesses were always Open Primaries, like the GE.
If you want him to win, he cannot remain placid and his supporters cannot remain complacent, dissing McCain's inroads on their own self-absorbed blogs. The Electorate is still OUT THERE.
August 5, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, with this statement,
you're lost any credibility you might have had. Seriously.
Before you write such obvious propaganda, you might want to go to pollster.com, 538.com, RealClearPolitics, or ElectionProjection, and study up on the polls. Seriously. Rasmussen in the last two days and that completely rigged (even Chuck Todd said there were problems) Gallup/USA Today polls showed McCain ahead.
McCain is ahead or tied in ALL THE POLLS.
Laughable analysis.
August 5, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I guess I'll have to dig up the HuffPo article that belies the stupid polls, and I think Josephcast had another link in a thread below along those lines.
I'll go look, but you know, this is what I base what I'm saying on -
The GOP has admitted repeatedly, publicly, that they expect to lose. There have been many stories on the problemsthe GOP is having all over the country - recruiting candidates, raising money, holding on to seat as incumbents. The only polls or stories anywhere that fly in the face of what are very public problems for the GOP are the presidential polls.
They don't jive with reality.
And they don't because a lot is being ignored. Obama is ahead in electoral votes, for example.
The state by state polls and internal trends all say the same - Obama is ahead.
August 5, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope, not according to Qwerty. McCain's ahead in ALL THE POLLS.
See above.
August 5, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something seems to elude you, polls are not just absolute numbers, they also show a TREND. And if all of the polls show the TREND running in a certain direction, you'd be a fool to discount al of them.
August 5, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Qwerty, you made a whale of an error. A factually incorrect statement, one that was easily rebutted with factual evidence, which you said earlier was important to provide.
If you want to switch your argument that the trends don't look good, fine, but where are you getting your data from?
You were the one who wanted factual evidence. You are the one, in fact, who really needed that evidence, because had you had it, you wouldn't have said McCain is tied or ahead in all the polls.
August 5, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks, I just spit my tea out all over the desk
August 5, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
He has to maintain a margin BEYOND ERROR, i.e., beyond the reach of Rovian ground tactics, voter purge, Diebold machines, machines in short supply opr breaking down at pollin g stations, Brooks Brothers intimidating registered voters with ID checks, etc.
These all happened, remember?? Does Obama have a ground operation that counter these moves, and is it too EARLY to think about them???
August 5, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're unnecessarily concerned.
One more time:
This not 2004. John McCain is not Commander Coocoo Bananas. The Republican money machine is broken - most of it's important gears are either in jail or in a similar fix. David Plouffe is not Terry McAuliffe - and for the love of god - Barrack Obama is not John Kerry.
Were you in a coma in '06? We won, remember?
August 5, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is doing the ground work...voter registration efforts...volunteer groups...GOP IS LOSING VOTERS IN KEY STATES...
I know because I'm very involved in the Western NC campaign for Obama...he is doing the right steps to counter all the ROVE shit!
You are such a naive advocate of issues. a true troll bore!
August 5, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's like "Crazy Eddy" the used car salesman who "will do anyhting" to sell you a piece of junk. He's "out of his mind!" with great deal!
So I say to Eddy: but you had the same sale last week for the same car and it was cheaper then!
Eddy says: That was last week. This is a different car.
- Uh. Then why does it have it the same vin number?
- That's because they made two cars with the same vin! You got a problem with that? You a communist or something? I bet your mother was a communist. You even an American?
- I am an American.
- And a communist.
- No. I am not a communist. But what difference would that make anyway?
- All the difference. I don't sell to communists.
- I am not a communist.
- But if you were.
- I'm not.
- Well then, how about this beauty over here?
The moral of the story: If you buy a car from Eddy, you are too stupid to drive.
August 5, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting the way they work:
Step 1. Re-brand Obama. Heap abuse and mockery on him to get attention and some running room.
Step 2. Re-Brand McCain.
HEY DEMS: THAT CAN WORK THE OTHER WAY, TOO.
August 5, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know, I'm also sick of your insults and insinuations, you have not countered any of what I raised in a way that is objective and untainted by your own outraged feelings that someone could find Obama's game wanting.
You merely hinted DARKLY at some ulterior motives, Jesus, I don't need this. You can't even objectively point out where and how my posts are somehow furthering McCain and subverting Obama, but I get the HINT, ok???
August 5, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who the hell are you talking to?
Nobody insulted you or insinuated one damn thing.
You're the one who came in looking for gaskets to blow.
August 5, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just ignore the insults. People here (myself included) are just really passionate about Obama winning. Anything that alludes to the unthinkable (a McCain presidency) just elicits such a negative reaction in people that they start seeing red.
At the risk of pissing everybody else off, I say; please keep posting :-)
August 5, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Just ignore the insults". Have I insulted Qwerty?
Just curious.
August 5, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough; using the word 'insult' may have been a bit much, but there is quite a bit of piling-on occurring here.
I think you've (CT Voter and many others) brought up some excellent points and have raised some genuine points of disagreement in her analysis, but I'm also getting the impression that these comments threads are starting to pick up a tinge of orthodoxy where any divergence from the established opinion is immediately pounced on.
That's just my humble opinion though.
August 5, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Qwerty is referring to me, Tena.
Qwerty, your hysterical statement that McCain is ahead in all of the polls could be pointed to as subversive, I guess, but mostly I was referring to the constant references to the excellent job McCain is doing, and the complete and utter failure to recognize the superb groundgame Obama has initiated. For instance.
There's nothing dark or sinister or anything else here. I'm asking you to back up your claims, and so far, you haven't been able to. You say the polling data back up your claims. I point out that you've made a whopper of a mistake. You want me to just say "wow! Qwerty's right!" ? Talk about kool-aid drinking.
August 5, 2008 2:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOOD for you that you get the hint! I'm tired of your shit opinions that amount to being a troll and challenging others who have an opinion also!
August 5, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Nobody insulted you or insinuated one damn thing."
Here's one...
August 5, 2008 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Been rising steadily since Sunday.
Qwerty, really. Just saying. Please don't be that panic-stricken person in the movies who announces that the plot is shifting into another gear by screaming "WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!"
Variance happens. In the national numbers, McCain has a ceiling and Obama has a floor. Been that way for months. Go look at the historical numbers in the two daily trackers and decided for yourself what each of those are. When either or both of them crack it and it stays cracked for four days, then its time to press the big red button. Until then, you're just stressing yourself out unnecessarily. Which is fine, if that's what floats your boat except that it makes the herd jumpy and attracts coyotes.
August 5, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're not Coyotes, we're Hyenas. Hence the inane laughter in the background.
August 5, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you, Querty. I was hoping that Obama's 'new kind of politics' meant TRYING TO WIN.
Silly me - us Dems are so smart and serious that we'll just be rational with the hillbillies and they'll wake right up and understand the important issues.
After all, it worked last time, right? The WAR HERO won, right?
And the time before that, the NOBEL LAUREATE won, right?
SIMPLE CONCEPT: SAME APPROACH YIELDS SAME RESULT.
WAKE UP.
August 5, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the words of a boulevard philosopher, "can we all just get along?"
August 5, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's townhall today in Youngstown, Ohio was a classic!
He had people laughing, cheering, and rolling.
Obama is getting better and better on the stump.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=5518237&page=1
August 5, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Querty's right. Obama is just John Kerry with a "Fight the Smears" website.
No point in using the word 'Fight' if you don't actually do it.
As a lifelong Progressive Democrat, I'm embarrassed that my so-called 'smart' tribe is TOO DUMB TO UNDERSTAND BASIC MARKETING.
McCain has re-branded Obama as Paris/Britney: shallow, lightweight, vain, egotistical and FEMININE. Meanwhile, he's at a biker rally.
DONTCHA GET IT?
August 5, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dogs and cats, living together, MASS HYSTERIA!!!!!!!
August 5, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
AP/Ipsos New Poll
Obama 47 McCain 41
The first debate is going to be EXTREMELY important. Luckily it is on domestic policy.
August 5, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
in the ad, I like the "fought corruption in BOTH parties" line
too rich
nice try crazy grandpa mccain, but you ARE a republican and they HAVE had the far higher number of scandals lately (not even digging back into older ones like your own S&L shenanigans)
August 5, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh sure the "fighting corruption" line is good, (cut to Keating Five image) but for sheer comic gold it's not even close to his statement that "he'll fight the oil companies".
What's he going to do, wrestle them down and plant more Oil Leases in their pockets?
Or maybe he's going to fight them for bigger campaign contributions.
Or worse, maybe he'll challenge them for the best luxury boxes at the Republican National Convention.
That one line screams for its own ad response; say a montage of clips and photos showing Republican links to the oil industry; newspaper headlines with "Cheney" "Halliburton" and "Oil" in them, clips of Republicans at the 2004 Convention with oil derrick hats, whatever thay can find. Then finish it off with something like:
"John McCain claims he'll fight the Oil companies.
Who does he think he's fooling?"
August 5, 2008 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's ad people should do one of those commercial-within-a-commercial things. They should steal the first 15-20 seconds of this commercial, and juxtapose it with McCain endorsing Bush in 2004.
August 5, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's ad people should do one of those commercial-within-a-commercial things. They should steal the first 15-20 seconds of this commercial, and juxtapose it with McCain endorsing Bush in 2004.
August 5, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jzap, I don't think the age thing is a good point for the Obama camp to pound. First, McCain is doing a good enough job of that himself (see ORIGINAL maverick). Second, there are so many other issues Obama can get to McCain on - economy, 3rd term Shub, energy, economy, Keating, tax cuts for the wealthy, his senate record, and on and on and on.
August 5, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The video links posted by jonze are awesome. Obama needs to nail McCain with his own words. And have McCain saying those words, not some smooth-voiced narrator. Over and over, in his own words, and it will be game, set, match.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U5KZzgaB2k&feature=related
August 5, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink