A caveat: This poll was conducted almost entirely before last night's big convention speeches by Michelle Obama and Ted Kennedy.

Yeah, it was also before the networks went on 24-7 "Is Hillary still pissed?" watch.

It's also before the GOP spends 4 days in Minn. dragging Barack Obama through the gutter.

Even Gallup downplayed the poll results in their write-up.

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

This shows our uproar over the housing gaffe was completely useless and counterproductive. The public doesnt care how many homes McCain has.

For the first time in my adult life, I am proud to be an American.

Let's not ignore this completely, though. I'm sure last night's speeches did some good. But Ted's wasn't going to bring any Hillary supporters back home. Michelle's may have brought a few, but not many. And as DrToast noted, those speeches were bookended by media concern trolling over the Clinton-Obama festival of hate. (which I'm sure they inflated 300% or more) In addition, the Biden pick pushed some Hillary folks away, either to undecided or into the hands of McCain. (46 is the highest level of support for McCain since the primaries ended.)

As I've said on other posts, all the more reason why Clinton needs to knock it out of the park tonight. Then again, maybe it is best to ignore these polls since none of us have any influence over what Hillary is going to say and do tonight. I have faith she'll do the right thing but my faith isn't 100%. How about ya'll? And if she doesn't come up big (which would mean Bill won't either), can Obama win back the deadenders/holdouts on his own? And do we even need them?

Hi everyone
My name is Cindy McCain. I am the wife of a POW.
I am here at the convention to introduce my husband,
the next Pow .. I mean president of the United states.
I met John not long after he was a POW, he was cheating on his wife at the time
because he had been a POW, and I just could not be prouder that he picked me.
It was a difficult time in the POW's ... I mean Johns life. You see he had to go home
to a wife who'd been badly injured in a car accident, now he had seen enough of these injuries when
he was a POW and felt it was his moral duty to divorce her. Oh sure he tried to work it out by having
sex with other women to save the marriage - but in the end it did not work because he was a POW.

I'd like to talk a little about myself and my accomplishments ....
I married a man who was a POW.

I was raised in a family with two sisters and I am an only child.
My father - who like John - the POW - cheated on and divorced his first wife,
he left me only one hundred million dollars when he died. Subsequently we have only been able to buy twelve houses,
Sadly it is not enough to keep John from feeling cooped up like a POW.
I lobby against mothers against drunk driving because I own a beer distributorship - those mothers should not threaten the
livelihood of a POW. Now you don't want to get John mad or he might call you a cunt - which he called me once in public.
Sadly it is because he was a POW, that may have been the low point of my life. But I bounced back and told people that
mother Teresa told me to adopt a child even though I just made that part up because John was a POW.
I could go on and on and on and on,
but just let me leave off tonight by saying thank you all, and thank God, that John was a POW.

I'm not worried about this poll.
It's just a daily tracking poll.
Which is why it doesn't worry me.
It's still August.
No one is interested in polls, Eric.
I'm not even thinking about this pathetic post.
. . . . .
See? I went away from my computer for five minutes, and didn't think about polls.
I have a life, you know.
Are you trying to make me anxious, Eric?
Because it's not working.
I'm going to go have lunch now.
Before I go, though, I may just drop by barackobama.com and donate $50.
Not for any special reason, Eric.
It has nothing to do with this post.
Because I'm not WORRIED, okay? So just quit it!

Funny, after all the attention THAT poll got from traditional media, and Election Central, there was nary a whisper about the results showing Obama back in the lead yesterday.

There's been 200+ head-to-head polls since June 3. You can count the number of them in which McCain has led on your fingers (three Rasmussen trackers a month ago, this one Gallup tracker, the oddball USAToday/Gallup a month ago, the Zogby a couple of weeks back). I guess a poll in which McCain led nationally would be noteworthy. (Now, if the true state of the race were Obama leading by a couple of points, you'd get about that many McCain leads by random chance, but that's neither here nor there.)

The Obama campaign needs to use McCain's negative ads against him. It needs ads that emphasize that McCain ads are completely negative because he has nothing positive to propose for the country, that if he dares to talk about his agenda everyone will see how closely he follows George W. Bush. Make McCain the man who is afraid to show who he really is, who is hiding behind a Rovian slime machine.

Here's a suggestion for an ad to counter McCain's ads to entice Hillary's supporters.

"As a supporter of Hillary Clinton, do you REALLY want to support John McCain?

-The candidate who smiled (and did not challenge) when one of his supports asked him in one of his town hall meetings, "How are we going to beat the bitch in the fall?"

-The candidate who told an offensive and disparaging joke about Hillary's own daughter?

-The candidate who cheated on and tossed aside his first wife for a younger wealthy trophy wife?

-The candidate who called his wife an offensive and disparaging name in a somewhat public setting (c*nt story about Cindy)?

This is the candidate that you think embodies the values espoused by Senator Clinton? This is the kind of "honorable" leader you want creating the society your daughters and sons will inhabit?

We don't think so either. Vote Obama in 08.

Here is what David Plouffe thinks about National Polls -

David Plouffe, key Obama aide, says national polls don't matter

DENVER -- David Plouffe, an architect of Barack Obama's surprise ascension to the pinnacle of the Democratic Party, did not look today like a fellow under duress because of the recent spate of national polls showing his candidate losing much of the advantage he's enjoyed over John McCain.

That's because, to hear him tell it (as he did at a press briefing), he all but ignores the surveys that tend to stir much interest among others.

"We don't pay attention to national polls," he said, referring to himself and the rest of the Obama team charged with winning the 270 electoral votes -- accrued through 51 separate contests in the states and the District of Columbia -- to win the White House.

Instead, as Plouffe reviewed the status of the race, he said he and his colleagues concentrate on other matters. Such as, most importantly, the undecided voters in the 18 states they see as the campaign's key battlegrounds and -- in those locales and elsewhere -- efforts to spur turnout of Obama supporters.

"We stay laser-focused on these two factors each and every day," he said.

The obsession on turnout is a key reason he turns a blind eye to the national polls -- and remains pretty positive in his assessment of the race, handwringing among some Democrats notwithstanding. .

Pollsters generally base their sampling group on past voting patterns. But the electorate in 2008, Plouffe said flatly, "is going to be changed in some fundamental ways from 2004."

He did concede this much about the soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee:

"McCain has more strength with independent voters than most Republicans. We as a party can be bummed out about that, but we've got to deal with it."

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/08/david-plouffe-k.html

another poll came out and obama was up by 4..... tpm still focusing on the neg... http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_diageohotline_national_81.php

You know, I really do agree that national polls are meaningless -- especially this early.

But I still find that, on occasions like this, donating small amounts of money to mybarackobama.com has a calming effect on my nerves.

See -- I'm now writing in complete sentences! And my hands have almost stopped shaking.

Also -- Hillary trolls -- if Hillary needs a backrub or a footrub or something before the speech, please tell her to call me. I can be discreet.

this is such a historic moment in american history. i am so proud. we are sick of all that silly stuff about white guilt. let the world hear it loud and clear. we are a racist country. john king and george stephanopolous have just been on the bridge. they see no icebergs. full speed ahead.

The final Rasmussen and Gallup daily tracking pollse before the election were pretty accurate in 2004. In earlier months, the absolute numbers are not the point but rather the trends.

All insiders know that tracking polls are better guides than a series of one-shot polls taken every few weeks.

Right now, Obama got a negative bounce from his VP pick -- a historical rarity. If he keeps going down the next 2 days, the bounce from his Thursday speech will just bring him back to where he already was before the Biden pick.

It's like we're at the game yelling various strategies at our favorite team, though the team isn't yet losing (they're not winning either, but they got a few innings/periods/rounds to go).

Are any of you great players like the Obama team? Maybe you are and are just posting here in secret, who knows.

Concern and suggestions are fine, but it's like the game where you've got a number of hotheads yelling and sounding on the verge of heart attacks.

Breath in, breath out... repeat.

There. That's better.

I keep thinking about last time, when I had that sickening sinking feeling when Kerry came out with his "Reporting for duty!" shtick. So far Obama and his people haven't made me feel this way. I still feel they know what they're doing, and think Obama's speech Thursday will be the exact opposite of Kerry's wrong note followed by dull droning.

I also suspect that McCain will form, then step in, little turd piles stretching from here to November.

So let's sit back, enjoy the game.

For Christ's sakes people. BO has only 69% of support...FROM DEMS in the state of N.Carolina and he's only down three.

It really does come down to HRC tonight making her case that BO is who her minions...er supporters...need to vote for.

She can the speech about her for all I care, but at the of the day, she has to show her people that Obama is the one that will carry out this vision and that she will lead the senate to help push through "our vision" or something like that.

Naturally, the media would lap that up as 'divisive', but at the end of the day, if she tells people to stop the bull shite and back BO, we'll start seeing a bounce by Thursday's polls.

as I said, it is almost time to boycott TPM. I never thought I will reach that point, but we don't need another CNN, or Foxnews...

Aww, man, we're not heading into another round of 'Obama needs to...' here, are we?

I think daily trackers are a horrible metric by which to form opinions about campaigns. Too nervous-making...

Having said that, Clinton damn well better bring gasoline and matches and set the damn barn on fire tonight. Tell the Pumas to STFU, and tell the world that McCain is more frightening to her than even her own presidential aspirations circling the drain.

Anything less will prove that the 'angling for 2012' theories are true. Do the right thing, Senator.

I've opened up a Kos account because of EC blogs such at this one. This place is a downer, If you only read here you'd think Obama can't do any right and McCain is winning at every turn.

we are down 2% since Biden was picked. democratic women dont like the pick.. they were expecting hillary.

i dunno if they will jump on board, not been following politics for a long time, but the long primary fight definately has screwed us up. mccain has republicans more united then dems.

now we must use the convention to unite!! that is our only hope casue the cons will be going crazy next week attacking obama.

they really hate his guts cause he is black plus his politics.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/its-gonna-happen-and-when-it-d.php

Throughout his entire public life Mr. POW has demonstrated only one constant. My friends, Mr. POW hates women and womens issues. He has been confronted with 134 womens issues from abortion to equal pay and has voted against women 125 times. On top of that he has promised more wars, more wars my friends. More young men and women dead. Maybe a lot more. Maybe a draft.

Any woman who votes for John McCain is a complete idiot. He is a life long member of the womens haters club and he wants to kill your children.

Sorry PUMAs, it is about time you faced the truth. John McCain would be the absolutely worst possible President for everything you hold precious.

Sound advice from Eugene Robinson. Hope the folks in Denver read this.

According to Pollster.com, there have been 112 Obama vs McCain polls since Obama captured the nomination in June. Of those, Obama was ahead in 101 and tied in 5 more.

From OpenLeft: "The point here is that the occasional poll showing McCain ahead should be taken with a grain of salt until a pattern emerges and in most cases it doesn't. For example, the blogosphere was abuzz last month when a USA Today/Gallup poll showed McCain up 4 points. But guess what, the "mean" immediately reasserted itself: Obama was ahead in the next 7 consecutive polls by an average of more than 5 points. Things don't always revert to the mean but that is the most likely result."

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=5A5519F5EFDF265BDAD8C46EA1A92FF0?diaryId=7736

Interesting that McSame went on the attack and the polls started to change as soon as Karl Rove became an advisor. Say what you will above Krazy Karl, he knows how to tip the national electorate. He truly seems to be an Evil Genius.

The Democrats better recognize this and step it up.

Given the headline for this article, I really can't put much stock in the author's expertise.

"McCain Takes Lead In Gallup For First Time In General Election"

The general election doesn't begin until after the conventions. That is around two and a half months in the future. I'm not sure that even the MSM can hide the real McCain for that long.

As for you PUMAs, how many of you were/are "pissed off" at Ralph Nader for his perceived role in the 2000 election?