LOL. 15 points? Come on, McCain campaign. If you're going to make it laughable, go for the fences. Why not a 30 point bounce? A 40 point bounce? Why not just say that you're going to give up because the press loves Obama so much - and then, when you don't give up, you'll have, like, won the media cycle! Yeah, that's it! You guys rock!

Also, John McCain was a prisoner of war.

This is fun:

McCain's POW card

http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/1237/Get_Out_of_Gaffe_Free_sm.jpg

Well they "played the refs" for Obama's overseas trip as well, and it probably had certain effect. Might as well try it again.

But McInsane gets it all back the day after when he celebrates the anniversity of Katrina, the day his mother's womb expelled him and announces that either Mittens, Queen Clinton, LIEberman, Graham, RUDE-ee or Huckleberry is his Veep.

why don't they complete the memo by saying:

"with this bump, senator obama will not doubt cruise to an electoral landslide, embarrasing the republican party and its nominee, sen. john mccain. for that reason, sen. mccain will withdraw his nomination and concede the election"

it would save us the trouble, and it would executed with the same amount of truth and validity as the previous statements.

They can try and minimize the shock of it all they want - but they'll never succeed in dampening how many people actually see Obama's speech, either live or through coverage. And that is when it's really going to suck to be John McCain.

It's up to the Obama campaign to push back and lower expectations.

"The political season has already dragged on for so long, frankly I think the American people have grown tired of it. I expect no more than a 5 point bounce if anything at all. It's a tight race and John McCain is a very formidable candidate."

Breaking:

John McCain forgot that he was the Republican nominee for President, and has accept the VP slot offer from Senator Obama.

You wanna know how to get Capone? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. *That's* the *Chicago* way! And that's how you get Capone. Now do you want to do that? Are you ready to do that? I'm offering you a deal. Do you want this deal?

Here's hoping "He Can't Remember" is just an amuse bouche for next week

Let's make McSame use his Get out of Gaffe Free Card

Don't leave home without it

http://towleroad.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/08/22/gaffe.jpg

Barry does give a pretty good speech now...

This is typical Republican baloney: they emphasize an expected "bump" (or performance), then when the more realistic number comes in, they get the media to announce that Obama "underperformed". I just hope the media doesn't buy into anything the RNC or McCain campaign says prior to the convention. I'll keep my ears open....

I'd like to see them go after the "maverick" image too....starting by challenging McCain to return to the real maverick, the guy who in 2000 and 2001 voted against the Bush tax cuts. Or, more generally, you're not a maverick when your fiscal and economic policy is no different from that of the supply-side/no regulations lunatics, and the Club For Growth of American Enterprise Institute.
And, in reality, anyone who sells out to Exxon sure isn't the maverick on the environment and global warming (think you'll hear that term from McCain's mouth in Minneapolis???). Lots of things to chew on the "maverick" image.....come on, Dems!!!
Remember Rove's most intelligent advice: go after a candidate's
perceived strength...

psmdc: I'd like to be able to agree, but unfortunately you're not
right about the gullibility of the American voter. We've got to educate them on our own, not expect their "intelligence" to do it.
Sorry.

So, let me test this "15 point bounce" thing on for size. According to today's Gallup Poll, Obama leads McCain 45-44 with 11 undecided or other.

Assuming Obama got all of the undecideds, and 2 from McCain, it should look like Obama 58% - McCain 42%. Unlikely.

Since a minimum of 3-5% will likely vote for someone OTHER than Obama and McCain, obama would need 7 from the undecideds and 4 from McCain. It would then be 56-40.

I just dont see a 15 point bounce.

That 16 number sounds off. Pretty sure Clinton and Gore got a 12 point bounce with a crappy economy and Bush presidency providing the lift. Comparatively, Kerry got nothing (shocker). I'm (very quietly) hoping for something similar to Clinton's '92 bounce, though obviously the expectation game being what it is you have to say otherwise. Still, if Obama can get close to double digits that's a great convention. Anything less should be considered advantage McCain.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

Yep, the Rethugs did this back in '04 too...said Kerry would get a 12-15 point bounce. And when he bumped up only 2 or 3 points, they did indeed play it to the press as a big disappointment.

I think it's more likely Obama will see about a 5-point bump...maybe 6-7 when you factor in the house gaffe (whether or not that moves the polls remains to be seen...usually takes several days for the impact of such things to register).

He sure will McShame, He sure will. It's called the Denver Surge!

This election has gone on so long I doubt there is a 15 point bounce truly available to either candidate. There will probably be some movement, maybe 3-5 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was less.

what fucking douchebags. they know no class

When will McCain and his campaign understand that this election is not about poll bumps or Paris Hilton or the media? This election isn't a game or some funny joke. This election is about the pressing issues that Americans are facing in their daily lives and our national desire for a change in direction. The McCain campaign does us all a disservice by playing the same tired Washington games.

The response should be:

"We expect to have a bounce of fewer points than the number of houses John McCain owns."

Clinton got a 13.6% bump in 1992. http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/08/convention-bumps.html

The chances of Obama getting that kind of bump this year are very low because the Republican Convention comes just a week later. That said, Obama should get a bigger bump than McCain. I would expect Obama's bump to be in the 5-10% range and McCain to recover more than half of that. It really doesn't matter much because the bumps will disappear by October when the polls really start to matter.

Somebody should ask Ms. Simmons how much of a bounce they expect from the Republican convention.

LOL! Check out this response from the Obama Camp:

Obama campaign senior strategist Robert Gibbs responded to the "convention spin memo" in a statement, saying, "Presidential races are close, and we expect this one to be no different. But they should figure out how to spin the fact that John McCain owns a dozen houses and thinks the fundamentals of our economy are strong before trying to spin our convention."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/08/22/mccain_tries_to_raise_expectat.html

Good Morning America, October 5, 2004:

CHARLES GIBSON: In going, in going through the book, John Kerry. You refer to him as a gigolo, the male Anna Nicole Smith . . . . What does that achieve, Ann?

ANN COULTER: Well, okay, then I don't want to hear him talk about a middle class tax cut when he has made his living living off rich women. I mean, it is simply a fact that he has married two heiresses. His specialty in life, I mean, if he has an economic plan, I think the one I'd like to hear about is how to snooker millionairesses into marrying me and living off them. I mean, that is not an, a, a trivial point.

More quotes found here - http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/08/22/gigolo/index.html

And, please, let's run a big time Ad deflating the McCain mantra that he's an ardent supporter of veterans. The votes show otherwise.....(remember 2004 when the Republicans literally ran on a handful votes Kerry made....). And let's not leave it to the
surrogates such as vetvotes to do it (as great as their Ads are -
this the latest, by the way:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/21/121545/703

Hey, when a guy's 0 for 11 on veteran votes....what would the GOP be doing to Obama is he were anywhere near that.

okay Ben has explained now. One more instance of the press and the blogs getting all excited about nothing.

So now they know how to count....

Are they predicting that Obama will liberate Denver next week and he will be greeted with flowers?

I actually can believe that one....

Wait. Obama's black?

I expect Obama to get as big a bounce from the convention as the one he received from his trip abroad --- namely, zero The McCain campaign will once again deftly snatch Obama's triumph right out from under his nose and beat him over the head with it. They will make it seem like a very regrettable thing indeed that "the party of the people" nominated an effete intellectual snob of foreign extraction who puts country second just to promote his celebrity ambitions. McCain in turn will emerge from his convention with a 5-point lead overall and all the battleground states tilting his way. That's a prediction, but not one that requires a Ph.D. in statistics. Which reminds me. I went to the RealClearPolitics electoral college map today to see if I might find consolation for the consistently rotten polling news of the past two or three weeks. Usually the map gives a much rosier picture than the polls do, and in the past I've been able to come way from it reassured of at least the plausibility of an Obama victory. To my amazement, however, today's projection, with tossup states alloted, shows McCain with a 274 electoral vote victory! One month ago the same map projected an Obama victory of 340 electoral votes. I suppose I can stand on my head and close one eye in order to see Obama's prospects in a more positive light, but that will only make my headache worse. Oh wait, I forgot the debates! Yeah, right. Don't fool yourself: McCain can throw a zinger with deadly force and accuracy, and the American public will take one good zinger over five good arguments any day of the week. We've been woefully short-selling this man and his determination to become president by any means at his disposal. That sharp sound you hear is of a long knife being pulled from a metal scabbard.

Let's predict the 'bounce' McCain will get from the republican convention. Oh wait... how do you figure in the senators who wont risk attending their own convention???

MAVERICK

The dictionary definition:

Originally used by ranchers to signify an unbranded cow that has lost its way. By convention, it can become the property of whoever finds it and brands it.

Concept for Obama:

"He calls himself the original maverick. Doesn't he even know what that originally means? *chuckle* He's calling himself an unbranded cow that's lost its way! Now that sounds about right to me!"

Or:

Compare Bush's "compassionate conservative" label to McCain's "maverick" label. Same difference. Empty label in an empty suit.

McAin't no more!