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House GOP's Planned Ad Buys Suggest Big Dem Gains
The House GOP campaign committee's new batch of ad reservations clearly shows that the GOP has completely given up on even trying to regain the House -- they're just doing their best to limit another big loss of seats.
We've obtained the details of the reservation from a Republican source, and it sure does make for interesting reading. Of the 14 district targeted this round, only three of them are actually held by Dems, making up barely over one-fifth of the total money set to be spent on offense.
By contrast, the Dems' TV reservations for this Fall put about two-thirds of their projected spending on offense against the GOP. That's a huge, huge disparity in the Dems' favor, and portends more massive gains for them this Fall.
In total the NRCC is planning to spend $8.9 million on TV ads in this batch, with $6.9 million of it blocked out for defending Republican-held seats, and the other $2 million to target three Dem incumbents: Tim Mahoney of Florida, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, and Don Cazayoux of Louisiana.
Some notable Republican incumbents on the defense list: Marilyn Musgrave of Minnesota, who trails her Dem opponent in a recent SurveyUSA poll and is now getting a $1.2 million assist from the national party; Bill Sali of Idaho, who will be getting $509,000 worth of ads; and the virulently anti-gay Sam Graves of Missouri, who will receive $430,000 worth of help.
The ad reservation was first reported by Politico, and we subsequently obtained the buy's details.
Check out the full listing:
District Incumbent Rervation AL-02 Everett (R) - Open $338K CO-04 Musgrave (R) $1.2M FL-16 Mahoney (D) $955k ID-01 Sali (R) $509k KS-02 Boyda (D) $580K LA-04 McCrery (R) - Open $323K LA-06 Cazayoux (D) $474K MN-03 Ramstad (R) - Open $675K MO-06 Graves (R) $430K NC-08 Hayes (R) $720K NM-01 Wilson (R) - Open $730K NV-03 Porter (R) $590K OH-01 Chabot (R) $575K PA-03 English (R) $828K
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Ooh baby!
Thanks for the good news! And it's really excellent news that Republicans aren't dumping money into Chris Shays (R-Jerk-CT-04)!!
August 27, 2008 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
"By contrast, the Dems' TV reservations for this Fall put about two-thirds of their projected spending on offense against the GOP. That's a huge, huge disparity in the Dems' favor, and portends more massive gains for them this Fall."
sort of sounds like the opposite picture of the Presidential race.
August 27, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
What? Nothing for Don Young???
August 27, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they feel that feeding him money would further the egregious idea that the Republican Party is the party of criminals......
August 27, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
That the list is this short also shows how little money the NRCC has in comparison to the DCCC.
Also: nothing in NH-01? Or are they waiting for the Republican primary there to be decided?
August 27, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't really understand why they feel the NH-01 is a venerable seat. Shea-Porter is very popular, and Jeb Bradley is not. Furthermore, I don't really get why they wouldn't target NH-02 instead. Paul Hodes is not all that popular in the state to be honest, certainly less so than his predecessor Charlie Bass was (whom most people in the state were surprised to see lose in 2006). I've gradually come to believe that the national parties don't actually understand NH. We don't like being told what to do and take our notorious slogan of 'Live Free or Die' very seriously.
August 27, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
O man - I wish everyone would read that about 10 times then quit running around with their heads on fire squawking: "Obama's going to lose! Obama's going to lose if he doesn't stop what he's doing right now and do just what I say!"
This is nothing if not Obama's coattails.
And where is that story about Chris Bell I just posted for you and Greg, Eric?
Bell is running in a special election for a senate seat and he's up over 24 points on more than one Republican opponent.
Texas is doing it's utmost to turn blue again and our successes so far have been due entirely to our own hard work - we get no respect and no damn help from anyone else.
August 27, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
And coattails work in both directions, don't they?
August 27, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely - I was thinking that same thing just before I opened the comments back up and read yours.
August 27, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, it does look good, but it would also really help secure the win if the people who are so busy squawking about how "Obama's going to lose" got off their fat butts and did some campaign work. Too often I've noticed that back-seat campaigners don't do anything but squawk.
August 27, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmmm, they are fighting for NM-01. That could get interesting.
August 27, 2008 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not the least because whether NM goes for Obama kind of hinges on NM-01.
August 27, 2008 3:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ad spending? Who cares. Didn't you all see???!!!
OBAMA TAKES ONE POINT LEAD IN GALLUP DAILY POLL!!!
Oh wait...that only gets reported if McCain goes up ... for one day...every three weeks.
Back to the topic at hand...
August 27, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Great anti-Obama TPM Election Central Conspiracy! Didn't you get the memo? Eric and Greg, having taken training from Larry Johnson and Karl Rove, are doing their level best to make sure McCain wins in the fall, starting with their reporting on the polls! They're trying to demoralize the entire Obama constituency! Thanks for staying on top of this extremely important story! Be sure to shout it out to anyone within earshot!
August 28, 2008 2:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hopefully the Dems are prepared to use the power of the purse for a massive push-back against the war powers claimed by the executive branch over the past 40+ years.
August 27, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only one election really matters. If Obama can't beat McCain, all the gains in the House and Senate are for naught.
It's terribly telling that in races where there is no skewed MSM coverage the Dems are routing the GOP...
August 27, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
"All the gains...are for naught"?
Jeez, Jonze, you really are a Debbie Downer at times. Stronger majorities in both chambers will help to restrain whoever is President.
August 27, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
What CT Voter said. (Not about the Debbie Downer part, but about stronger majorities in both chambers being good for the nation.)
August 27, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
O Jonze- do you read what you post?
Sorry - but dude, that's stupid. If we hold the majority in Congress, the Executive has to go through us to do anything at all.
Jesus god! It's Congress that has the ultimate authority if it will use it - Congress can fire the goddamn president. D'oh!
August 27, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what has that done for us the last two years? Is the House and Senate all of a sudden going to grow a spine?
At best we could hope for two years of absolute deadlock. The come the mid-term in 2010 the Dems would likely lose a fair amount of seats because nothing is getting done and they're just running interference.
And lets not forget how much power Bush has grabbed over the eight years, and how much more power the Supreme Court will be willing to give McCain.
August 27, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jonze, We did not have a veto-proof majority - we had Joe fucking Lieberman as our "swing vote."
Dude -
August 27, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon. The phrase is "More and better" Democrats. Emphasis on "More" first. If McCain manages to win and despite the serious doom and gloom abounding among pro-Obama commenters it's still unlikely, he's going to be instantly disliked by the American public, because he really has no plans for the economy, the war, or the environment.
Second, with the stronger majorities, the Dems aren't going to be as weak-willed as they have been in the past. They would have to contend with an angry and dissatisfied base which will start identifying opponents for the primaries--Which had an enormous and positive influence on the behavior of Jane Harman, if you recall.
Sure, it's not going to be champagne and caviar, but it's not going to be the doomsday scenario you envision.
And constantly thinking that way probably does you more harm than good, frankly. If you think there's nothing you can do, then you'll do nothing, right?
August 27, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
"instantly disliked by the public"
Reminds me of when Bush won in '04. He won and once people realized what was going on his numbers plummeted. It's a shame that they didn't realize that before the election, but it is what it is. What you are describing is a first year lame duck president.
August 27, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama can't beat McCain, all the gains in the House and Senate are for naught.
HELL NO.
There's a reason that Article I covers the LEGISLATIVE branch. That's where the power is supposed to reside.
More and better Democrats. Starting right now. Then let them stand up and FUCKING USE their power. FUCK McCain. And Pelosi and Reid and Hoyer and Rockefeller and Emanuel right along with him.
August 28, 2008 2:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry - but dude, that's stupid. If we hold the majority in Congress, the Executive has to go through us to do anything at all
An elderly executive with no real interest in getting re-elected, and 40 senators, can bring the country to a standstill.
And then he can start wars when that gets boring...
August 27, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really really don't think so on the wars.
Nope, sure don't.
August 27, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
America might not start wars preemptively, but it won't stop America from backing up Israel in a heartbeat.
August 27, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
This approach will work for the dems. Kay Hagan is up 3% in NC for Liddy Dole's seat because of the DNC's ad campaign here. it will work when we match the ads with legs on the ground!
August 27, 2008 3:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
IDAHO?!?! Seriously? Idaho? Things are better than I thought...
August 27, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
no kidding
August 27, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama is president with a minority in the House and Senate, he still controls the direction of the country and only has to compromise enough to get the centrists and moderate Republicans on board.
Now if McCain is President he only has to compromise enough to get the Blue Dog Dems on board.
August 27, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
O for the love of God -= read the goddamn constitution - would you, please? Please, for me?
You're so wrong.
August 27, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
How in the hell did the FISA bill get passed then? Was it because Bush held the veto pen and the Blue Dogs wanted to get things done? Won't McCain hold the same veto pen and wont the Blue dogs still want to get things done?
August 27, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will say this one goddamn time again after trying my damnedest to pound one simple fucking fact into all of your heads:
FISA was passed in 1974 with the same exact purpose it still has: to allow the Executive to conduct warrantless searches and circumvent the 4th amendment. Nothing changed about the damn 4th amendment encroachment. Nothing. It's exactly the same as it has been for over 40 years! Get the hell over it - y'all were suckered.
August 27, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
30 years -
I can count - sometimes.
August 27, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what's more, y'all were suckered by a bunch of trial lawyers.
You really thought it was about your rights?
hahahahahahahaha! It was about making money, folks - it was all about the pending lawsuits.
$$$$$$$$$ - please do not kid yourselves about politicians. Most of 'em are lawyers.
August 27, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Correction: Musgrave is in Colorado. Her looney soul sister, Michele Bachmann, is in Minnesota.
It's easy to confuse the two.
August 27, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
the repuglitards ain't gonna spend money to try and unseat Jerry McNerney ???
WOO HOO
that's an open admission of defeat
in December of 2006 the repulitards were bragging about how McNerney would face an overwhelming battle in 2008
guess that ain't gonna happen
we should make a list of all the districts the repuglitards vowed to win back, and where they can't even afford to spend money trying to win them back
bankrupt morality, bankrupt ideas, bankrupt party
August 27, 2008 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are some intersting factors here. In the NC-8 race, it shares a media market (in part) with NC-10, McHenry v Daniel Johnson (Johnson looks to be making progress at this point) so they can use their Charlotte reservation for either race. The same thing applies to MO-6, where they can shift to Kansas and go after Dennis Moore. Also, OH-1, the ads can be shifted to Wuslin v. Schmidt if dynamics dictate. What is suprising is the size of the Musgrave buy (they could "sell" the time to McCain) which is a relatively cheap TV market. This seems to ratify the SurveyUSA poll showing Musgrave going down the toilet and appears to indicate that Musgrave has not raised much money since June 30. Betsy better be ready to be heavily slimed as this is a massive buy for that district. What is also shocking is the Salvi buy--another very cheap TV district--this is panic.
August 27, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crapola. They're dumping half a mill into "oil-in-them-thar-trees" Sali! Idaho's really ready to stick it to Sali - I wish they hadn't invested in the race :( Regardless, I'm almost ready to start wagering Sali will lose this election.
Have there been any polls on Idaho's 1st since June?? Kos has our senate race within 10 - and that's supposed to be a blowout ... I'm betting Sali's in the dumper(Minnick is a very strong candidate).
August 27, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, no NJ-7 on the list (where I be now)! Has the GOP given up holding on to that seat?
August 27, 2008 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes
August 27, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink