That patter of little tiny feet is the galloping of the McCain trolls on over to this post....

Remember, kids:

within the ±2% margin of error.

Apparently, if a crack team of liberal bloggers were running Obama's campaign, he would already be in office.

Of course the attacks worked. They always work. And people who think Obama will be rewarded for his "new kind of politics" are sadly deluded.

McCain has so many negatives--policy, personality and competence--and if Obama doesn't take them on, then he'll let that old geezer slip into the WH. He can't allow the McCain camp to make the race all about him; he has to show that there is a risk in choosing McCain.

This worries me. Because if, as these results suggest, voters are going to reward the candidate who fights the nastiest, McCain will win hands down.

The Gallup National Poll not the Rasmussen is what matters?

If voters fall for McCain's smear tactics and elects the old fool, well then this country deserves another war, higher taxes, forceclosuers, job cuts and higher gas.

fucking america. what the hell is wrong with these people?

obama NEEDS to attack "maverick" status. he thinks that people are smarter than they are.

We didn't seriously think that we were going to go this entire election cycle without McCain being ahead at some point.

This does worry me about how the campaign is going to go forward from this though. The McCain camp may think this an affirmation that their new "celebrity" attacks are working (and, gawd, I'm really hoping that this is not what that means) and we will see more of them. They make me sick on a gut level.

I'm okay if Obama attacks, but let it be on the issues! We can win this campaign on the issues.

Gallup had them even yesterday 44-44.

Negative attack ads are like Buckleys Medicine - they're awful, but they work. Everybody professes to want a clean campaign about the issues, but everybody falls for negative attack ads. It's all about repitition, repition, repition - say it enough times and it becomes ingrained.

Head on - apply directly to the forehead
Head on - apply directly to the forehead
Head on - apply directly to the forehead

The Obama candidacy is dead. If he's not willing to fight back then we're going to lose this election. A race this close is a win for McCain once voters actually get in the booth.

Is it too late to nominate Hillary? The Clintons are the Republicans' kryptonite. She would've got in McCain's ass by now.

The moment Obama goes on the attack, he'll become either a) the angry black man or b) the effete elitist who looks silly getting angry. Or both - heck, he's already a Commie, Muslim, crazy Christian, celebrity arugula eater. Anger comes naturally to McCain, and his bulletproof "POW/hero" vest protects him from being called out on his hypocrisy and lies and hot temper.

With the polls showing a dead heat between McCain and Obama, Clinton remains the most electable Dem. A poll right before Denver should give the Superdelecgates pause. Clinton should be the nominee.

Clinton supporters appear to be somewhat more reactive than Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of the former indicate that if Clinton is not the nominee -- and Obama is -- they would support McCain. That compares to 19% of Obama supporters who would support McCain if Obama is not the nominee -- and Clinton is.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx

Time to start talking up the media whoredom of Hollywood McCain:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/hollywood-john-mccain.php

news alert -- this is going to be a close election

yes, we'd all (with the exception of the obvious trolls and provocateurs here) want Obama to win an landslide of 62-38% - but that has never been likely to happen

look at the results of the last 4 presidential elections -- the country is deeply divided politically, and the odds of a run away win for either party is extremely remote (although I think/hope the folks who compare the politics of Obama 2008 with Reagan 1980 may be on to something).

Palpitating at every small swing in the polls in August isn't healthy for your heart -- it will be a rough next 3 months if that is your way of dealing with it.

The "race card" debate far more than the celebrity bs has proven the killer for Obama lately.

Never mind that McCain first injected "race" into the campaign, as Jonathan Alter correctly points out, there is no advantage to be had for Obama as long as so-called "racial issues" take the form of "who's playing the race card, acting racist, victimized by racism, etc."

This is not the Democatic primary where the Obama campaign made Hillary pay for Bubba's no doubt intentional SC gaffe. General elections are no place to deal truthfully with history. Like the Iraqi war, most white people wish race as an issue would just somehow "go away" and cease to bother them.

Obama's oil ad is a start in the right direction, but he must attack vigorously and substantively McCain's hypocrisy, age, neocon underpinnings, and anti-populism to win. If the Obama campaign seriously believes they can turn the other cheek to Rovian attacks, McCain will steal Obama's face right off his head, replacing it with a gangster-rapping dandified minstrel. "Look, they did it again" indeed.

I wonder if the Obama team has figured out that August is when the Republican machine destroys Democratic candidates, and if Obama doesn't fight back, then on November 5th he can wonder how the term President McCain rolls off his tongue.

Obama cannot stand back and say "Is that all the better you can do" and expect it to have any effect. Perhaps the Republicans really don't have to do any better.

Can one imagine Hilary standing back and only smiling as the attacks hit?

Oh, and where is the Democratic Party in all this? Sitting on their hands, adding up the bucks they will pocket on re-election, and not concerned about Obama?

With some polls showing a dead heat between McCain and Obama, Obama remains the most favored Dem. A July 31 poll from the well-respected Pew Research Center should give the McCainiacs pause.

Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who favored Hillary Clinton as the party's nominee, slightly more now back Obama than did so a month ago. Nearly three-quarters of former Clinton supporters now prefer Obama (72%), up from just 59% in May.

PAvoter, I so agree with you. You notice on the Republicans are like ants nest you mess with one, the come out and attack. Where the hell are the Democrats

Obama brought his gun to the knife fight. Too bad he was shooting blanks. McCain drew blood with his Ginzu slashing of Obama.

Sure Obama's slapped on a few band aids, but the damage has been done. The trend for Obama is down.

The only way Obama gets a bump at the convention is if he kisses Hillary's ass in a major way. We all know that's not happening.

Who cares about national tracking polls, regardless of what they say. We do not elect our president in a national election. We elect our president in fifty separate state elections. Obama is doing fine. I am all for people working hard nonetheless, but the second-guessing and handwringing is just silly.

This campaign strategy by the McCain camp was going to happen eventually. They had to go negative against Obama.
They are doing it early so that they can keep his numbers in orbit, then when the debates come around it will all be forgotten and they can proclaim an honorable campaign.
The Obama camp knew this was coming. They just have to keep the numbers close.The actual campaign for the general will really take off after the convention.
I don't like the nail biting that the Obama camp keeps putting me through.They make you wait until you see the whites of thier eyes.So far they have ran a great campaign, and as much as I want to see them attack McCain for the stupid pandering flip flop bush clone he realy is, I can wait for the time when it will really stick.
Courage people. Courage.
We have truth on our side.

I think it has less to do wih the McCain attacks and more to do wih the media cheerleading. They have gleefully made daily reports about how McCain's attacks "might be working". They've given him free advertising, parroted the GOP memes and smears, and in general gave him a big ole pass.

The MSM = GOP parrots

Oilbama is to announce his energy plan today.
Hopefully somebody in thye Media will ask the cokehead why he voted for Dick Cheneys Big Oil Energy Bill. I mean besides the money he got...

Problem is Obama appears to be swaying in the wind regarding too many issues. *BIG* mistake to back down on telecom immunity; his support among Independents and Libertarians dropped by 16% on that 'triangulation'.

Also, he could have separated himself a bit from progressive organizations such as MoveOn.org without criticizing them openly for an ad they ran almost a year ago. He needs to remember the foot soldiers that helped him defeat Hillary in the primaries.

Obama needs to be confident and progressive in his political message and not be a repug-lite; otherwise he will lose the election. He needs to attack McCain for his poor judgement and flip-flopping on key issues and as McSame as GW.

Still a lot of time; but even though I voted for Obama in the Wisconsin primary I find myself less and less excited by his candidacy of late... Hope he can turn that around soon.

I'm watching Sen. Obama give his energy speech in Michigan, and I realize he's taking a big risk. He's betting that Americans want to be spoken to as adults. I think he means it when he says he's not going to attack Sen. McCain's character or patriotism. He's not going to employ petty distractions. He's not going to reply in kind to the Republican tactics. He's going to carefully explain his positions. Would people listen? I hope his bet pays off.

I apologize if this has been asked before, but I don't understand why negative ads would boost McCain's numbers.

I could understand Obama's numbers falling, it's been a tough week for him.

But Obama is staying the same, McCain just rose about 5 pts, by launching negative ads.

That doesn't make any sense, so I frankly don't believe it.

If the polls show this consistently, then Obama needs to change tactics, but it seems a little premature to start worrying now.

Its amazing how this one poll fully, finally and completely validates and vindicates the long-held beliefs and/or of so many people, notwithstanding that all those beliefs are totally inconsistent.

I continue to wonder why the hell national polling gets so much attention, especially by people I assume to know better. Perhaps if the United States practiced a direct electoral system, this would have much meaning Ass it stands, though, with the Electoral College, it's hard for me to take national polling on any more than a quasi-serious level.

But he's up three on Gallup- suck on those eggs Rasmussen

McCain backlash?

Gallup Daily: Obama 46%, McCain 43%

obama up in gallup polls hurt my brain.........

Since you post non credible pollster, will you do the same for Gallup, Eric?

When are you or TPM gonna identify Gallup, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac as Republican-leaning pollsters? The reason they poll so much is that they need those polls to shape public opinion for the Republicans.

Gallup (and Rasmussen and Quinnipiac) held Bush up in 2004 by polling and polling and polling their singularly Republican group of voters: people who were already Republicans would seem to shift to Bush from Kerry on que to the latest news cycle. Then, the media would report the manufactured shift on and on and on. So, no one whose livelihood depended on reflecting public opinion would dare go to Kerry, would dare put on a Kerry bumper sticker. Neighbors, on reading these idiotic polls, distrust neighbors, and you report this nonsense as if it's fact and important. How much did your parents/school scholarship fund pay for the undergraduate education that generates this shit?

Imagine if after a back-and-forth like last week's, people got to just think about it for a while. They might be able to let the ads and speeches gestate for a second before having to spit out an opinion to a pollster.

In short, the recent mudslinging in the campaign may well have played in McCain's favor.

Or maybe the opposite? Obama rose nicely in today's Gallup to a 3-point lead after being tied on Saturday.

An important difference between Gallup and Rasmussen is that the first is registered voters and the second is likely voters.

obama must apologise for his surrogates britney spears and paris hilton. they will do anything for attention and he shouldn't have appeared in that ad with them. it looks bad.

The fact that McCain is a head in one poll after all of McCain's mis-steps & fumbles shows what a medicore Campaign Obama has run thus far.Hope he can turn it around.Playing nice ain't wuking folks.

These Likely Voter polls are misleading. Obama's base includes newly registered and young which the likely voter filter eliminates. What was the Registered Voter result?

obama must apologise for britney's parenting and the paris sex tape. he should not have appeared in the ad with either of them. it gives people the wrong idea. what was he thinking? i could never vote for him now. not that i would vote for somebody who isn't pure blooded anyhow

Quit this "I don't know why X works because why would....etc.", "since it doesn't make sense to me, this poll figure isn't right, etc."

First, you are you, not any other Americans. You cannot think that simply because an ad doesn't make sense to you, it won't to other Americans, eg. the "Satan" angle.

I am an atheist, so you can imagine my consternation, but what do Evangelicals (or any other groups of conservative Americans) think?? I would be stupid to dismiss this as ridiculous simply because it is ridiculous to *me*. They each have ONE vote, and say, there are a couple of hundreds of us on TPM, and in one Evangelical church alone, there are 500 members, we're vastly outnumbered.

And before anyone jump on me to call me a "defeatist" or "morale killer", just consider the reality of such a statement and tell me if we ought to fight the memes.

You're using a subjective judgment on an objective fact. First, you've got to have a more objective way of evaluating the veracity of that poll, eg. history of the reliability of that poll, and when you do and the poll doesn't stack up by these OBJECTIVE standards, then you can dismiss it.

Yes, Rasmussen has been declared "Pro-Republican", simply because it tends to show results favorable to Republicans, but that's a stupid thing to do.

You need to ask yourselves, has Rasmussen been OFTEN wrong or often right. The same with the others, Gallop, Zogby, etc.

"Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters have seen or heard news coverage of McCain’s ad including Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Just 22% believe the ad was racist. But, most say Obama’s comment about not looking like other Presidents on the dollar bill was racist."

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The American people are now taking a good look at Obama, and what they see they don't like. After playing the race card with his dollar bill remarks (gee, and it worked so well with Hillary), now he's reversing all his former positions on oil in a desperate attempt to stop his dive in the polls. But most people currently give as much credence to what he says as when he said he would vote against telecom immunity.

You know, there's still time to unload this turkey and go with a candidate who can win in November ... just sayin.

Wait till election day when the voters go into that booth and have to choose between a Democrat and a Republican.