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For First Time, McCain Edges Ahead Of Obama In Tracking Poll
Now this is something. For the first time since Barack Obama officially won the Democratic nomination, John McCain has managed to eke out a narrow lead in the Rasmussen tracking poll.
The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, within the ±2% margin of error. McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of likely voters, compared to 51% who view Obama favorably.
In short, the recent mudslinging in the campaign may well have played in McCain's favor. Obama has not dipped from his usual range, but it appears that some undecideds have been pushed into McCain's column for now.
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That patter of little tiny feet is the galloping of the McCain trolls on over to this post....
August 4, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
That and Chicken Little's coming out to squawk.
August 4, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric as Henny Penny
August 4, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can we retire the phrase "chicken little?"
I mean, I understand that there are some screaming panickers out there, but there are also others who have legitimate concern, and it's counter-productive to tar everyone as a "chicken little" who might honestly believe Obama has some real issues and could use work to improve his standing.
Non-panic, real discussion is necessary, but we can't turn the blogosphere into an insulated circle jerk in which we all congratulate ourselves only on positive evidence we like.
I wrote more about this here:
http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/08/03/my-name-is-dansac-and-im-a-chicken-little/
August 4, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
How about chicken-o.
August 4, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
No one I've seen is tarring folks as Chicken Little indiscriminately or saying that Obama's campaign is doing everything perfectly.
That said, objectively some of the comments that come up every time a poll number drops by 1% are ridiculous. The constant refrain from well known Hillary supporters like fogu2, Dem Bill C, Billy Glad, and others is beyond tiresome.
August 4, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah, well those are just knuckleheads. that's different.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 4, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I liked "The Obama candidacy is dead" down below, myself....
August 4, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dem BillC is no Hillary supporter, and no Dem. No Dem gets their talking points from Powerlineblog (follow the links from the comment and compare to what "Dem" BillC posts in his comment.
August 4, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't? That's how we got saddled with this turkey in the first place. Obama lost almost every big state primary, and while we were telling you that he couldn't win in November, you were pointing out how well he was doing in Montana.
August 5, 2008 1:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing like complacency!
It worked for John Kerry, right?
... DIDN'T IT??!!?
August 4, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'm gonna grab some popcorn.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIbMoQL8cBE
August 4, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
consider the source, rasmussen poll has a conservative slant.
August 4, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
So why hasn't it shown a McCain lead until now?
C'mon, folks, we're falling into the same trap as we did in 2004, attacking polls instead of considering the results.
There is no reason for panic, but c'mon now.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 4, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Speak for yourself, please.
I'm donating money and volunteering for the Obama campaign. What are you doing?
August 4, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
All of the above. I think you're misinterpreting my comment. I'm saying we have NO reason for panic, but I also think that attacking pollsters when we don't like the result isn't productive either.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 4, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely right. My two most recent posts talked about why we shouldn't be panicking. We can't just attack pollsters when they give us results we don't want.
Instead of panicking, we should be using this opportunity to step up efforts like campaigning and donating. Let's completely decimate the expectations for August. Let's give Obama a nice big finish at the Convention. Let's ride the wave all the way to Election day and get this man elected!
August 4, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama spent four times as much as Hillary in Ohio and Pennsylvania and he still lost. When will you realize that money alone can't put a weak candidate over the top? The Obama bubble has been deflating since last February.
August 5, 2008 2:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen and Gallop are both tracking similar results. More ominous would be the latest Siena poll shows 30% undecided in New York state.
August 4, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember, kids:
within the ±2% margin of error.
August 4, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yawn. It's early August. If McCain is polling at 47% in mid October then I'll pay attention.
August 4, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently, if a crack team of liberal bloggers were running Obama's campaign, he would already be in office.
August 4, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! Definitely a lot of armchair-quarterbacking going on to be sure. But I do think that the "netroots" does give some needed feedback to the campaign and helps with researching issues.
August 4, 2008 10:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Reason to panic? No.
Reason for Axelrod and Plouffe to start playing more offense? Yes.
The only reason McCain is in this at all is because he's seen by much of the country as a McMaverick. Anyone paying close attention knows that this is not true, but Team Obama needs to inform those less clued in. The oil ad is a start.
Maybe an ad with featuring a photo with Huggy Bear grasping a certain Shrub, perhaps?
August 4, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only criticism I have for the Obama strategy so far is that the Huggy Bear-Shrub image hasn't been used. I'm hoping they unveil something with that right after the Republican convention...
August 4, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am with you (as usual), dear CT Voter. Obama is doing fine. I have no major criticisms. That said, I do hope that we see more of that picture (as well as hear more of those radio ads about "McSame"). Bush is (rightly) an albatross around their necks and there is no reason why we should not take every opportunity to call attention to the fact.
August 4, 2008 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Completely right-on.
August 4, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen.
August 4, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
WineDarkSea,
I suspect the Obama camp has a truckload of opposition research on McCain and they're keeping their powder dry until the time they think its strategically right to launch it.
One thing you can bet will be out front, they will tattoo Bush's face on McCain's forehead with voiceover of McCain saying something similar to what Bush said.
bomb bomb bomb Iran.....100 years in Iraq.....and his voting record vis a vis Bush policies.
August 5, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course the attacks worked. They always work. And people who think Obama will be rewarded for his "new kind of politics" are sadly deluded.
McCain has so many negatives--policy, personality and competence--and if Obama doesn't take them on, then he'll let that old geezer slip into the WH. He can't allow the McCain camp to make the race all about him; he has to show that there is a risk in choosing McCain.
August 4, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Using old-style politics in response is not a solution, it is a second problem.
August 4, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Buzz me when you wake up from your dream world in which voters reward candidates for not attacking their opponents.
August 4, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Still dreaming, since 1883.
August 4, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Old politics (for Dems) includes standing still while being tarred and feathered.
D'OH!
GEORGE BUSH BEAT ME!
TWICE!
August 4, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
This worries me. Because if, as these results suggest, voters are going to reward the candidate who fights the nastiest, McCain will win hands down.
August 4, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
McDiapers is a nasty coglione.
Whatever happened to BHO's "PROMISE" to bring a gun to the knife fight. (Made in June this year!)
That said these tracking polls are excrement of the highest order.
We have an Electoral College vote to win!
August 4, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, whatever happened to that promise? McCain is bringing a AK-47 and Obama is bringing a bb gun.
August 4, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
He was so busy playing the race card they he forgot to bring the bullets.
August 5, 2008 2:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Never underestimate people's willingness to allow themselves to be ruled by fear, uncertainty and doubt. Bush pulled it off for over 6 years and now McCain is tapping in to that shallowest of pools. McCain's willingness to go negative this early on seems to be a precursor of an even worse election cycle than in 2004.
August 4, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't agree more. Personally, I just love to be ruled by fear, uncertainty and doubt. All my friends and family do, too. My father, a poor immigrant with a dollar and a dream, came here looking for that uniquely American fear, uncertainty and doubt, the beacon to the millions who simply cannot live without being repeatedly fooled.
August 4, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously - take a Prozac.
August 4, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why would I want to follow your example, of all people?
August 4, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Because Democrats look out for all people... even republicans.
August 4, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's sweet.
New politics: FUCK THE REPUBS.
August 4, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Gallup National Poll not the Rasmussen is what matters?
If voters fall for McCain's smear tactics and elects the old fool, well then this country deserves another war, higher taxes, forceclosuers, job cuts and higher gas.
August 4, 2008 10:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
...you forgot the melting of the polar ice caps, extinction of polar bears, deportation of homosexuals and overturning Roe vs. Wade
August 4, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, 3 of those are certainly possible outcomes from electing John "Drill Our Way Out" and "I Love Scalia" McCain.
August 4, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
fucking america. what the hell is wrong with these people?
obama NEEDS to attack "maverick" status. he thinks that people are smarter than they are.
August 4, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
"fucking america. what the hell is wrong with these people?"
I think we found a new bumper sticker for the "Obamanation" campaign.
August 4, 2008 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why don't you make yourself useful and go find us some good McCain slogans at freerepublic?
August 4, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
How's this for one:
"McCain's energy policy...now endorsed by both candidates!"
August 4, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I gotta a better one. "Mcbush for growing big oil profits! Four more years for big oil!" How's that one? I like it.
August 4, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
That'll work...especially now that B.O. has one on his car.
August 4, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
How 'bout:
"KRUSTY McCLOWN. HAR! HAR!"
August 4, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet, the state electoral college tallies at the sites which keep track of them (ie. fivethirtyeight.com, electoral-vote.com, electionprojection.com, pollster.com, and so on) haven't budged or shown any signs of movement toward Mccain in those tallies. Obama is still leading and would win comfortably.
I think national tracking polls are overrated in this race... and I dont think a MOE lead by either candidate is a big indicator of who will win.
August 4, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's always possible that McCain is hardening his support in the deep red states -- this morning's Oklahoma poll posted here suggests that might be true. We'll have to see whether the closing of the national polls begins to affect, for example, Nate's model's predictions over at 538.com.
Since I'm just some shmoe posting in a blog comment section, I'm not going to pretend I know what the Obama campaign should do right now (I know, imagine that!). The McCain campaign with their Rove disciples clearly decided to go with what has worked so often before, and they seem to be getting dividends. It is too early to say whether those immediate dividends will last, of course, but it does evoke all-too-familiar memories.
The Chicken Little syndrome is caused, I think, by the hope that Obama would win this by 10 points going away, and it's just never going to be that easy. I've finally readjusted my expectations to that and may even stop obsessively checking the daily trackers!
-- Stu
August 4, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. I don't think anyone will ever win the presidency in the modern political era by a big popular vote margin. That said, Obama still looks good in the electoral college.
You see the same thing in other countries as well. It's become something of a science to drive your opponent's numbers down and try to eke out a victory.
August 4, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oilbama could not even keep his lead as long as Dukakis or Kerry.
Of course he will tank bigtimt now with his new Ad "We Can't Afford Another President In Big Oil's Pocket" How stupid can one Ad be? Oilbama is the only candidate, Hillary and McCain voted against it, to vote for Dick Cheney's big oil Energy Bill. He has taken in over 400K in donations from Big Oil. He is Dick Cheneys bitch and completely in the pocket of Big Oil. That is why people are calling him Oilbama.
August 4, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink