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Focus Group: Undecided Voters Care Much More About Character Than Issues

Joe Klein sat in on an independent focus group of 21 undecided voters and learned some interesting things about their priorities in this presidential election:

Given a list of 31 personal attributes the next President might have and asked to pick the eight most important, "Accountability" finished highest with 13 votes, next was "Someone I can trust" with 12, "honest and ethical" was third with 11. "Agrees with me on the issues" got one vote. They didn't care if the candidate was a Washington insider or outsider. "A dynamic and charismatic leader" got two votes.

It's hard to base any conclusions based on the views of 21 voters, obviously. Nonetheless, this suggests the possibility that the McCain campaign is having some success in shifting this election to one about the character of the two men, and away from the terrain where Obama wants the race fought -- on the issues, and on who possesses the inspirational qualities necessary to galvanize real change in Washington.

The focus group also found that those undecided voters are responding more forcefully to McCain's attack ads than to Obama's. It's hard to imagine that these two phenomena aren't directly linked.


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So now it is up to Biden, Hilary and Bill to take McCain down about six notches while Obama stays above the fray. This is no game, this is for keeps.

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Did you just say it's up to "Biden, Hilary and Bill" to make your "character" argument?!?

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Twenty-one people? How insignificant.

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I hope the Obama campaign doesn't try to fit their plan into what this "focus group" says. It was a focus group that advised Kerry (a) not to respond to the Swift Boat attacks and (b) not to go negative on the repuglicans at the convention. We all know how that turned out.

Focus groups will tell you what they think you want to hear. Everyone always says they don't like negative campaigning but it always moves the needle.

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I think this illustrates how small the gain is from policy reversals.  The FISA cave-in comes foremost to mind.

Hmmm.  I wonder if a series of biographical ads showing BigO's community-organizing work in Chicago would be a good ploy?

McSame's character is highly vulnerable.  So much to pick and choose from.  As for the timing and what to pick, I'd defer to Obama's braintrust for that.

Not too surprising. If issues were the most important thing for undecided voters, they wouldn't be undecided voters!

Well, yeah, that's a really good point.

I was nervous for a moment too. Then I realized it was Frank Luntz picked focus group and any trace of concern went right out the window. That dude is a fraud. And if somehow McCain comes out of this housing debate with the better argument - even though most Americans have no clue what the Rezko thing is even about - then Obama should just pack up shop and stop contending. This post read like an RNC talking point. I'm betting Klein was fooled.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

One doesn't have to wake up too early in the morning to fool Joe Klein.

Frank Luntz, for those who don't know is a Republican pollster.

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I think he became a democrat at some point.

Those three issues would destroy McCain. Accountability (Iraq and flip-flopping (the unwillingess to acknowledge that he's changed positions)); Someone I can trust (cue the 74 flip-flops); Honest and ethical (cue the treason charge and the 74 flip-flops).

Obama could fit all of his policy arguments AGAINST McCain within those three broad terms.

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"Obama could fit all of his policy arguments AGAINST McCain within those three broad terms."
...and go down in flames.

You must have studied at the feet of Mark "Even when it's bad, it's good for McCain" Halperin.

Yup,idiot voters, predictably, cast their votes for idiotic reasons.

I like the recent attacks much better than the early passivity, but they're still not hitting hard enough, or going directly enough after character. McGigolo's bark need to be thoroughly stripped off. We know he's a sleaze, now this has to be made unmistakably clear even to the idiots.

Of course they do.

I'm amazed this is even a discovery for anyone. How can a 50-yr old woman with a low paying job, 3 kids and a granchild on the way can POSSIBLY have an informed opinion about today's policy in America??

Our government is so huge and it's policy is so convoluted, this is an inevitable outcome.

Character is the best available approximation you can make when making a decision. There is no other way to make a judgement, so character is simply a substitute.

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I'm amazed this is even a discovery for anyone.

Indeed.

I'm surprised so many commenters are so dismissive of this.  For me, it just reinforces what I think I know.  And though this group had only one participant that cited issues, I think even a better-designed study would show that number to be really low.

Besides, character is a battlefield Obama can win.  So what's the big deal?

The big deal is that

(a) it says something about our government and its policies that we are forced to use character as the next best approximation when voting

(b)running on character year after year will only keep moving our elections closer and closer to Hollywood. As if it isn't close enough already.

(c) this character thing benefits both Republicans and Democrats, but in different ways. So this will continue to be exploited, ad infinitum

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Rarely agree with you on just about anything, but I completely agree with this comment.

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Agreed.

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Why would any intelligent observer believe that the opinions of 21 voters have predictive validity for millions of undecided voters?

Why is content that is so insipid at to verge on being data free taken seriously by Klein, and what is it doing here?

Focus group is never about prediction. Polls are quantitative, focus groups are qualitative. Polls give you numbers, focus groups give you insights.

Marketing 1-on-1

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What kind of insights would be useful that wouldn't then be predictive of voter preferences?

I don't know what you learned in your marketing classes, but like quantitative arguments, qualitative arguments are subject to tests of falsifiability that are directly related to sample size.

There is no sample size in focus groups, because it's not a statistical research.

Focus group suggests possible motivations behind the numbers that you get from a poll. If you have time and money, you can turn these motivations into questions and run another poll, just on then.

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I don't doubt that you've accurately described the process, rather that it holds the significance that those inside the focus group industry attach to it.


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Agree. Few marketers would make significant decisions based on a single focus group.

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Nor should political candidates use flawed qualitative data as the foundation for comprehensive polling.

See my post below.

Focus group rarely give unexpected insight.

Focus groups are a way to quantify opinion.

Marketing teams need data to justify their decisions to management. That is what focus groups a really about.

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Exactly, this is all an overlong discussion of the self-justificatory strategies used by people with a vested interest in making their industry relevant and therefore profitable.

For those who want to see all the details on that focus group Edsall (at HuffPo) has more on it than Klein and better info on who these people are. Most of them were actually McCain leaners. FYI.

Anyway I don't need any focus group to tell me that they must attack McCain's character and his fitness to lead the country. For better or worse (mostly worse) that's how our politics work these days. And it was the Rethugs who made it so; I have no sympathy for them if and when we return the favor.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

We have a winner boys and girls!

Just not sure when McCain has demonstrated much, if any, character during the campaign.

Why would he have to? He spent five and a half years forging all the character he will need for several lifetimes.

without benefit of a kitchen table or a chair, houses, churches... why until he was captured, he didn't love his country... the man was a POW for heaven's sake... 36 years ago he was finally released so he could reap the blessings of second marriage to a rich woman half his age. God bless America!

"I don't have to be a nice person, I'm a POW."

"I'm the commander/a POW--see, I don't need to explain, I do not need to explain why I say things. That's the interesting thing about being President/a POW."

they're ncerned about character ???

then how could they consider voting for mcsame ???

the man is a known liar, thief, adulterer and pandering foolif you're concerned about character, Obama is the only choice

if yoou SAY you're concerned about character and you like mcsame, you're a known liar too

Just follow Josh's instructions on the TPM home page to "play for keeps," and the character issue will resolve itself.

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You're right, but notions of "character" have been applied towards rulers since Hammurabi: hardly a newfangled idea.

"Character" as an issue is of course important, but so ambiguous a and multivalent a concept that almost anything can be said to relate to it.

Some examples of these things are, positions on concrete issues like jobs, healthcare, the economy, taxes, the environment. Obama is starting to show that he needs to tie McCain's positions on concrete issues to more abstract ideas of character.

Yet Klein fails to recognize that he's set up a false dichotomy by opposing "character" to "issues". That he takes seriously the idea that "change" is necessarily more vague a term than "accountability" is revealing in this sense.


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The above was intended as a response to Steve LeBonne.

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Frank Luntz?

The resident "focus group" guru for Fox News?

Seriously?

Not to mention the Rezko ad is blatantly misleading at best and an outright lies at worst.

So lie about your opponent and you're seen as having better character. Only in America.

How would you do it differently then, when two mainstream parties are competing?

How about have an independent, unbiased, non-ratings driven media that would call out such lies?

McCain gets away with absolute murder. But a close race is better for ratings, as is war coverage.

Of course all the TV talking heads are filthy rich, so they're probably all Republicans. Obama will tax them harder, so in propping up McCain they are only looking out for their self-interest.

Maybe Obama's Camp realized as much and is why they put a ton of time and money into the ground game.

It's going to be the ground organization vs Boob Tube. And I don't think people care enough anymore. As long as they have Dancing with the Stars and Monday Night Football...

I don't want to be dramatic, but I'm feeling that this could be America's last chance.

But Jonze, it's impossible to have non-ratings driven media. It's their entire business model. High ratings result in high prices for commercials. That's the only way they make money.

This suggests that undecided voters are idiots. I can hardly wait for the debate focus groups to weigh in on 'character' and have the TV talking heads tell us how it doos Obama. Trouble is ... given the jackassery of these people, the media might be right.

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Why? Why does that make people idiots that they want leaders who are accountable and trustworthy?


Jesus - that's just to me the basic idea of the whole thing.

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Why is it that the people are jackasses?

For over thirty years, the Democratic Party has positioned itself, similarly to the Republicans, as a party of limited government (read abandoned it's commitment since FDR to demand-sided social programs).

Constantly portraying yourself as a more moderate version of X both legitimizes the positions of X and allows X to set the agenda.

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About 6 years ago or maybe 5, I saw Tim Robbins give a short speech and what he talked about was that what we needed was a candidate who would tell the truth and stand for something- it didn't matter that much what the candidate stood for if he or she was telling the truth and stood on principle.

That's what people are desperate for, IMO.

You are right mon amour, but different people have a different understanding of truth.

For you truth maybe this: let's replace oil with clean natural gas, that's the energy policy.

For others it may be: let's replace Big Oil lobby (G W Bush) with the Big Gas lobby (Nancy Pelosi). It's not about energy policy, it's about division of influence.

And both would be right.

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No, they wouldn't, Lalo, because that isn't a solution and thus isn't the truth.

And that's the key - the GOP smears and bullshit aren't truth - they are lies. And that speaks directly to their character and the only reason 21 focus group voters didn't say that is because they think Obama doesn't stand for anything and McLame does.

They're wrong, but that doesn't really make them stupid, just wrong.

"Dooms," not "doos." D'oh!

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I'll buy these results, not only because most of these folks voted for Bush in 2004 but because...

"Undecided voters are the biggest idiots on the planet." - Brian Griffin

I think anything out of "Focus groups" should be taken with a grain of salt.

Polling is far more reliable. Focus groups aere mostly done because they are far cheaper and easier than statistically sound polling.

The problem seems to be that people 1) don't knwo what they want 2) try to impress or please the questioner and/or their fellow group members.

Focus groups brought us New Coke, if you remember. FGs are great for telling lies like "they hate negative ads" and so on.


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Word! O wordy word word. Focus groups are dumb.

If this is true, then Obama is probably gearing up to throw his own little October surprise.

If undecideds want character, Obama will spend milllions 2 weeks before the election talking about just a few things:
1. Mccain's infidelity
2. Mccain's houses/wealth
3. ***Keating 5***

Expect these things to surface is full blown storm come october

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The Obama campaign cannot bring up his infidelity, but they're definitely tooling-up for a full-bore attack on McCain's role in the S & L scandal, an issue that dovetails perfectly with the mortgage crisis.

It's time to start looking at the Keating Five Corruption scandal and why John McCain was never held properly accountable for it ... he got away on a technicality related to the fact that he had moved from the House to the Senate. This story gets right to the character issue and also explains why McCain became a so-called ethics reformer.

I find myself agreeing broadly with Lalo, and Dr Toast.

This really is how undecided voters think. As Dr Toast says, if they cared about the issues, they wouldn't be undecided. They have an extremely personal conception of politics; they want to look into someone's soul and see a vague essence of straight talk.

But as people say, we can compete on that field. Barack is pretty squeaky, as politicians go. And McCain has a long history of flip-flopping.

We've done some ads (like "The Same old Washington Games") that went after McCain on the flip-flop stuff -- mixed with "closeness to Bush." But that meme is going to take a while to sink in. We've got to keep repeating it.

It's not exactly how I view it.

I think it's very difficult even for our professional politicians to understand and articulate policy to address issues.

Then they have to explain it to the average joe, who's back from work and wants to watch "Dancing with the Stars", because s/he is just tired.

I think the average joe basically says - I have no idea what you are talking about. But if I feel like I can trust you that my guarantee that you won't fuck me at worst and make my life better at best.

That's what character is about. Can I trust you that you won't let me down.

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I agree with you but you can't point to 21 focus group members and say: They've got it - they know.

They don't. It's 21 focus group members, for all love.

I have been in and conducted many focus groups for clients.

They are mostly to:
1. Confirm the marketing department's preconceived notions.
2. Quantify opinion in order to protect the marketing department's jobs should their conclusions fail to result in a successful campaign/product launch.
3. Rarely, very rarely, to gain unexpected insight.

This focus group just confirms what I already had concluded.

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A focus-group wonk, huh? No wonder you come off as shallow.

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"Character," as I describe above, is a relational concept. That is, it requires other information - like healthcare policy, for example - to flesh it out and give it meaning.

I do agree with you, Lalo. When I say "they don't care about the issues," I'm being hasty -- the way you put it is more accurate.

It takes time to understand these things; people understandably want to use "trust" as a proxy for full understanding.

I regret it, but it's true.

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21 people?

Ah yes, Greg, I definitely think Obama should completely restructure his campaign (where he continues to keep McCain below 45% in every poll) based on a group of people smaller than my weekend bar-b-que attendance!

Do they pay Klein to come up with this crap?

What next - a comprehensive survey of kindergarten naptime holdouts?

I also think it's important to understand that the populist tone we're trying to strike now is actually only kinda sorta about economic issues.

It's largely about blunting the force of McCain's "celebrity" attacks, by framing Barack as someone voters can relate to, and trust.

Exactly as I predicted, it will not be about issues.

Voters will decide based upon:
Race
Trust
Experience

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I don't doubt that you speak for white racists, but as a demographic, your type grows smaller and more insignificant with each passing day.

I don't know why they say you're so dumb.

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Got any?

Focus groups are not "DUMB"

Statistical significance is so 1980

Use both together and get a richer picture of the electorate


I would not dismiss

I believe it's Ion that's dismissing them.

I'm not dismissing them, just giving you a reality check of their value from an insider's perspective.

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Well, of course no information, however meagre, is dumb in and of itself, it's all about how people use it.

But what about the information as portrayed by Klein endows it with the significance that you attribute to it?

If you would, please draw on the conceptual issues like "character," "accountability," "change" and "issues" if you'd care to respond.

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Of course, the categorical distinction between "quality" and "quantity" that JMcCSF makes does not hold.

Who would you rather have a beer with?

Or as Craig Crawford put it elections for public office are basically no different than elections for high school student body president (paraphrase)


Personality attacks work
Not rocket science

You'd think Democrats would have learned

Frank Luntz's groups worry me more than any poll

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If your oft-repeated-by-the-MSM "beer" trope is really true, then why did Al Gore beat W in the popular vote?

Why was it even close?

If the election is about character, Obama should win. If the MSM gets around to demanding the truth about McCain's military record, his first marriage and his infidelity, his temper and vindictiveness, voters will see he isn't the man they've been told he is.

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Obama has lead in the poll of polls for almost 4.5 straight months, right (since 4/15)? Somewhere between a .5 point lead (5/3) and a 7.1 point lead (6/29). My goodness, how would we act if our guy was losing the poll of polls?

The last 5 national polls have Obama at 48, 45, 49, 48 and 47. McCain - 45, 45, 45, 45, 47. Why are we talking as if we were the ones in trouble? Man, if my guy was a white war hero with one of the highest Q ratings of any politician and he couldn't break 45% against a half-breed with a dictator's name I'd be crapping a brick.

if this race is close, the GOP will win, since they own the Diebold voting machines which will skew elections in their favor!

get wise.

and to spiteful hillary supporters, let me remind you that if McCain wins, it will be the end of safe, legal abortions in USA. thousands of women will die at the hands of illegal back-street practitioners.
think Supreme Court.

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I don't if this focus group provides legitimate insights or not, but the Obama people need to go after McCain's character, otherwise he will just wave the flag and repeat, "POW, Surge, No surrender," and enough voters will fall for "character" argument that it could make difference. Fact is, John McCain does have serious character flaws and they should be exploited.

Character flaws are part of the human condition. If you think Obama doesn't have them then you must think he is not human.

Race
Trust
Experience

That is all that will matter to people once they enter the voting booth.

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I'd sure like some "Accountability" The criminals in the bush administration really need to go to jail, most of 'em.

On the other hand, if a politician actually called for that, Bush would do everything possible to arrange pardons for his friends.

Let's see... So, the Democrat wants to stay focused on issues, while the Republican wants to destroy the Democrats character, and the character assassination is having an effect.

What will the Democrat do? Which club will he join? The club of Clinton and others that fought and won? Or will it be the club of Kerry, Mondale, Gore and Dukakis who were "uncomfortable" with fighting and wanted to remain "above the fray"? No frays to be found in Kerry's quite Senate office or Dukakis'.... wherever he is.

Obama had better bust out the heavy wood and start whacking McCain, lest he risk being another former pol whose failure just causes Democrats to roll their eyes whenever they hear his name.

From wikipedia's article on Luntz.

"To be 'Orwellian' is to speak with absolute clarity, to be succinct, to explain what the event is, to talk about what triggers something happening…and to do so without any pejorative whatsoever."

In September 2004, MSNBC dropped Luntz from its planned coverage of that year's presidential debate, following a letter from Media Matters that outlined Luntz's GOP ties and questionable polling methodology.[11][12] In a video piece, entertainers and libertarians Penn & Teller lambasted Luntz for his comment that the key to survey polling is "to ask a question in the way that you get the right answer".


Whats up with Joe Klein?

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