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Election Central Morning Roundup

Report: McCain Running Mate Will Be ... ???
Various reports are coming out about John McCain's veep-hunt, with Mark Halperin reporting that GOP sources say it will be Mitt Romney. On the other hand, the New York Times reports that the campaign is considering another pick: General David Petraeus.

Both Presidential Candidates Off The Trail Today
Neither Barack Obama nor John McCain have any scheduled public events for today.

Obama VP Could Be Today -- Or Tomorrow?
The Associated Press reports that Barack Obama could announce his running mate as early as today. On the other hand, Obama has already said he's decided who it's going to be, so it should be either today or tomorrow -- which is to say, the AP doesn't have any more of a clue about when the announcement is coming than the rest of us do.

Report: Obama Tells Runners-Up They Didn't Get It
CNN reports that Barack Obama has called several candidates who were on his short list for VP, to tell them that they didn't get it. But as you might expect, CNN was not able to find out who actually got these calls.

Poll: Obama Ahead In Michigan
A new Selzer poll of Michigan gives Barack Obama a 46%-39% lead in this must-win state, beyond the ±3% margin of error. However, the pollster's analysis finds that one third of respondents could potentially change their minds, and the race could come down to which topics dominate the race -- if it's about the economy then Obama wins, while McCain would benefit from a focus on national security.

Ticketless Obama Supporters Heading To Denver, Anyway
Tickets to the Democratic convention have already run out, but that's not stopping some people -- the Los Angeles Times reports that hundreds, maybe even thousands, of people are heading to Denver just so they can stand outside.

Hillary Still Deep In Debt
Hillary Clinton's debt-relief efforts were only able to raise $1.2 million in the month of July, leaving her with $11 million in remaining debts to vendors. Another $13 million is owed to candidate herself, for a total of $24 million, but she has said she will not seek to have her personal loans paid back.


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With McCain's "houses" gaffe, I'm not sure we'll hear about the VP spot until next week.

If he announces the VP, there goes all that news talk about it.

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Unless they bash his head in with this during the convention.

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

And more. I maintain that the houses gaffe was a Happy Accident that allowed them to test out the messaging apparatus that's going to run through the general ahead of the convention. The convention itself will be heavily scripted (and the leaks point to a very aggressive messaging stance) and this same apparatus will be humming with well-rehearsed messaging.

That they were able to turn it on a dime yesterday and effectively hit with a coordinated message that's still driving the morning cycle should be interpreted by the GOP as one hell of a warning shot as to the nature of the machine they're about to be staring down. Obama himself said the other day that the McCain campaign didn't know what it was dealing with - an assertion met with a good bit of laughter and nonchalance from GOP circles that day. The wise among them aren't laughing anymore, having only gotten a taste of this machine via a rapid response cycle ;)

And the McCain was so caught off guard that they shot their load super quick with that Rezko ad.

I won't underestimate their arsenal - the speed with which they got the Rezko ad out speaks to it being an Off the Shelf spot with a voiceover tweak. I doubt it dug too far into what they'll throw after the conventions - they're likely sitting on what they think is the most damning counter in wait for a more opportune cycle. But yes - their Any and All feel in response yesterday was quite the tell in poker parlance: the hit caught them off guard, but it was the rapid and sustained coordination that had them decidedly off-step in countering throughout the day.

A bit like laughing at the periscope but failing to realize that there was a submarine beneath the surface :)

I think you're right. I was thinking this same thing yesterday. They were probably spending all the time up until now getting it organized.

I would love to see the following at the convention ... signs that say "I have only one house and I know the economy is in trouble" and "I'm a renter ... I can't afford a house" and "I lost the only house I had because of predatory lenders" ... you know, a la those insulting purple heart band-aids from 2004.

I like the keychain idea FAR better!! I love the idea of the sound of CHAINS rattling throughout the convention!!

I even think they should start playing Aretha Franklins...Chain, Chain, Chain, ...chain of fools music to go along with it...cause it fits the picture of Voters being a chain of fools to send mcSame to the White House.

Chains,...key chains...loud and clanging ..echoing the demise of peoples homes being lost in foreclosure to prove just how much we are NOT a 'nation of whiners'

I'd just like to say, once again, this house gaffe is pure gold. This is one of those sticky memes that will last for a while. Think Dan Quale and the potatoe or Dukakis in the tank or GHWB and the supermarket scanner.

Best of all, it fits McCain's huge gaping weakness: economics. He's filthy rich, jokes that $5 mill is rich, forgets how many houses he owns, and yet lectures Americans to skip their vacations and callus us a "nation of whiners".

McCain = Rich a--hole.

Obama/Gore '08 ticket and McCain and kiss his Presidential race goodbye!


Petraeus?! Is that a joke?!

It just happens to be another wild-ass guess that only has the benefit of not being put out there before.

If reporters want to write fiction, they should get a literary agent.

This would REALLY help McCain. I find it stunning that, since he JUST took over central command, that he'd duck right out and go into politics.

Remember, NOBODY can DARE ever question Patreaus about anything, ever. Teflon Vice if there ever was one.

I think it'd be a horrible move.

McCain thinks the so-called best military commander ever can best serve the country by being his vice president?

Not to mention further degrading any chance McCain has on the economy AND making it a little too "military" for most voters.

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There's no way...not to mention he's still on active duty and barred by regulations from participating actively in any partasin campaign...

It couldn't be Petraeus. I saw him on SNL; he LOVES Obama!

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Converse,

Petraeus was in charge in Iraq when a hundred thousand or so weapons went missing.

I think this, like the leaks about Lieberman, is just a ploy to get in on the VP speculation buzz and remind voters that McCain exists.

Clinton needs to soak in that debt the way an old piece of bread needs to soak in some delicious bean soup. she deserves to have it following her around until she herself does something about it.

a millionaire running around the country trying to get other people to pay off debts they themselves incurred unnecessarily is the height of absurdity. that these monies are owed in part to small vendors who essentially got defaulted on makes it even worse.

Hill can offset her losses with all the extra money Bill is going to make now that she won't be president.

And isn't their fortune close to Cindy McCain's? 100millish?

I'm with you blackstar. Let the Clintons find out how much 'words' & 'speeches' mean!! Let Bill talk their asses out of her campaign debt.

I suspect though that it is this debt that is sticking in the craw of all the powerbrokers and Democratic party movers&shakers that has them all not coming out as surrogates to defend Obama and attack McCain...they are ALL still in the Clintons back pocket. I want those folks to ALL drown with the Clintons, too.

I thought PUMA pay off Clinton's debt. Why can't the 18 million voters contributed $1 each? I guess the whole 18 million is a myth.

Yeah, PUMA was running around like a month ago saying they retired the debt themselves and Hillary no longer needed Obama's help.

Guess they just wanted some attention.

PUMA was nothing but a front group for the GOP just like Limbaugh orchestrated Operation Chaos, to have repubs come out and vote for her in the primaries and keep the race going!!

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Military personnel can't participate in political events in uniform. What about retired military? If Petraeus retires, can he keep wearing his uniform and campaign? It's a fun story, but talk about doubling-down on the surge...

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How many speakers will joke about McCain's "homes" at the Convention? No doubt, McCain has given the Democrats the punchline for the next few days. It should be entertaining. With the quickness in which they responded, one would think that Wes Clark had said something about McCain's lack of qualifications??

Yeah, Petraeus, that's a great idea. That would really boost McCain's economic credentials.

McCain/Petraeus...Let's Make War! What a team.

You know, Get Your War On! would make one hell of a bumper sticker :)

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Or "Make War, Not Love".

Actually, that's the name of a comic strip. Here's a glimpse:

http://www.mnftiu.cc/mnftiu.cc/war74.html

McCain: Probably one of my houses is your own.

Ha - I'd forgotten about them. The Race Card vid is gold (and potentially NSFW).

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TC3K: NFSW? N2HFL!

I've been trying to think of a good prop they could take to the convention relating to the homes - the way the repugs have done with bandaids and flip-flops.

Big oversized red white and blue house keys on a ring, like a baby's toy?

How about: "Hi, my name is [BLANK] and I own [##] houses" name tags

Not bad!

The prop should be KeyCHAINS...large clanging chains...which should be used throughout speeches at the convention..just like the refrain "Yes, wE Can"

Speakers should say, stuff like while the vast majority of Americans are having a hard time holding onto their homes...then their is McCain and folks should just start rattling those chains.

We should have Chains made like leis to go around folks necks, chains made like hustler pimp chains, like bikers use to hang from their pockets all to carry the 8-10 house keys.

The props should be Chains and the song should be Aretha's

Chain of Fools..." For five long years, I thought you were my man...but I found out I'm just a link in the chain, chain, chain ,chaaaaain...chain of fools.


Obama should have a keychain fundraiser!

The key to evaluating a presidential candidate is his/her smile. Does it appear at appropriate times like when amusing things are said or funny things happen or is it a sarcastic grin in response to criticism that is anything but funny. Does it fade away when serious discussion begins or does it remain inexplicitly fixed. Think Obama, Clinton, Giuliani, Romney, Bush. Any others?

Petraeus? Doesn't he have a day job right now?

This would obviously be a huge problem for the Dems. But it would also destroy any remaining credibility Petraeus has and politicize the army to a degree not even the Bush administration could accomplish. Lots of old school conservatives would have a problem with this. I think you'd see Powell, Hagel and others sprinting to a mic to endorse Obama.

http://pufferfish.typepad.com/

McCain will pick Meg Whitman

McCain's "Housing Problem" ad was not thought out enough. One minute they call him elite and the next ad they state he can't even afford the entire property for sale.

They really should have coordinated their talking points ready before - either he is poor and corrupt or rich and elite. Maybe they should have said he wants to be a celebrity and wants to be elite. Rove's team is not good on defense - they screw up when they are not in control - this the is evidence.

Really now, how elite could Obama be if he could not afford the adjacent $625,000 property?

They did it on a rush. Mistakes were made. Good for us.

Dude, where's my house? Ah! It's John McCain's .

And do not forget that the white powder did not exist in the envelopes to McCain - just protein.

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/21/mccain.powder/

Trying to get this house issue off the page with a fake white powder scandal did not work as planned.

McCain's house gaffe is the game changing moment. Convention speakers should hammer it home. They need to give that gaffe a large mega phone during the convention.

This is the moment to paint McCain as another Bush third term. It is easy and simple. Just hammer the punch line every day of the convention.

George Bush doesn't care about the economy but war. George Bush cares about big business just like John McCain. George Bush doesn't believe in helping ordinary families that are struggling with their mortgages, John McCain is no different - John doesn't even know how many houses he owns. If he doesn't know how many houses he owns, how can he understand the plight of American families that are on the verge of losing their homes to foreclosure?

Democrats need to hammer this message home. It is a Christmas gift in August..

Every speaker should begin with, "Hi, I'm XXXXXX, and I own one house."

Hi, I'm X, and I need only one keychain for house keys.

And Let the clanging begin..the sound of chains rattling throughout the convention hall as folks rattle the TEN chains they need for McCain keys.

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Good thought, except that... most of the speakers at the convention probably have more than one house.

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Off topic (sorta) but this is really interesting (aside from Politico's attempt to make the Obama campaign seem too secretive). It's about a piece Obama wrote -unsigned- for the Harvard Law Review. It shows, yet again, why he's great - his intelligence, his decency, his lack of stridency, his ability to see issues from different sides. God, can we please have him as president?

link:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12705.html

I agree with Obama. Allowing fetuses' to sue their mother would deter women from reproducing. Why carry some fetus to term that could turn around and sue you? It would be far smarter to abort or not ever reproduce.

If we want population control, start allowing fetuses to sue women. Once the pro-lifers suceed in banning all forms of birth control. Women should become celibate. Why bother? Too much risk.
Their would be no comparable consequence for male behavior...only women would bear the brunt.

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Off topic (sorta)...

No worries.  It's impossible to be OT in the TPM EC Roundup thread.

McNero keeps adding to the narrative. The La Times just wrote that it took a nine car motorcade for him to get a starbucks fix....lmao this is like Christmas under the tree when yer 5 years old

So, I'm confused about the scale....what's more elite? A he-man POW, wearing $500 loafers in a nine-car motorcade getting a cappucino? Or a pointy-headed liberal wearing birkenstocks in a volvo getting a latte?

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Anybody get the email from Hillary about Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones passing?

She is extending her family's deepest condolences to her family.

She also gives you an option to go to her site to leave any thoughts -- NOTICE -- the CONTRIBUTE button?

I thought that was a little OBVIOUS.

I've been wondering if HRC will even attend the funeral. TubbsJones was such a staunch and bellicose advocate on HRC's behalf during the primaries. Her untimely demise should at least warrant that much of a concession from Hill. I bet it doesn't though.

I believe that is automatically there - Michelle Obama was dinged for something like this earlier and it was explained the way the email is set-up, the donate button is automatically on any outgoing email, without the writer even seeing it when composing the letter.

Could we ask for a better VP right now than Mitt Romney? Talk about McCain and his houses, I could've sworn I read about Mittens purchasing a $12 million California beachfront property just to vacation with the kids.

Romney is just gold across the board, really.

Yeah, I'm really crossing my fingers for him.

McCain/Romney will be an early gift for the Democrats. Obama needs to bring up Romney ideas of the economy. Bring up how Private equity helps kill job in small town American.

I am pretty sure State of Indiana still has a long memory of Romney leverage buyout. How many jobs were lost as a result of private equity take over? Romney should bring it on. There is thousand of Romney clips on YouTube.

Me too. Mitt will take the shot to his advantage and establish himself in 2012.

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Mitt will take the shot...

s/o/i/

Here's where I read about Romney's mansion (and no I'm not a Newsmax fan, a friend passed it along to me)

http://www.newsmax.com/kessler/mitt_romney_obama/2008/06/30/108517.html

Romney recently paid $12 million to buy a home on the ocean in La Jolla, Calif., near San Diego. His son Matt lives in the same area.

The former Massachusetts governor, whose main residence is in Belmont, Mass., says he has no plans to become a California resident, and the purchase has nothing to do with a possible future presidential run.

“I’ve always wanted to have a place on the beach where you could hear the crashing waves,” Romney says. “And you know, I’m 61; I’m not going to live forever. I said, ‘Ann, I want to get a place on the beach. I don’t care what size it is, but I want a place on the beach.’ And this spot, it’s not a huge home, it’s 3,000 square feet, but it is right on the beach, and you open the windows and hear the waves crash. It’s heavenly.”

LOL. It's heavenly indeed, Mittens. You as VP that is.

After house-gate, I think Romney's chances went down the proverbial gold-plated toilet. It's just too easy a target for the Dems.

I'd love to see someone go out on the street, any street, and ask get people's responses to the following:

- How many houses do you own?
- Is a millionaire rich?
- How much do your shoes cost?
- Are you a whiner (about gas prices, stagnant wages, the cost of the war, housing bust)?

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Heh. Pass that along to Bill Maher!

How can you take a day off when you just FINALLY knocked McCain's teeth out. This one and done attack strategy of Obama's will sink him. Keep ripping away with the number on homes attack line. It’s working unlike Obama today.

Very disappointed to learn he took the day off. The week long vacation wasn't enough? No matter what he should've been out there hammering it home especially with McCain off the stump.

There's no better surrogate for the Obama campaign than Barack Obama.

C'mon, Michael - No Scheduled Public Events does not equal Playing X-Box in a Bathrobe.

Lol. True, true.

ROFL. Nailed it.

Can you imagine McCain trying to play Halo 3?

"CINDY! How do you work this thing?"

:)

The media is carrying the water on this one just fine - no need to continue pushing it otherwise. CNN this AM has been all about McCain's Housing Senility and, my personal favorite thusfar - that Obama has turned VP speculation into "a Hitchcock Drama."

No need to pile on if it's just for show.

Maybe it's true. But that convention speech can't write itself and it's a possible indicator that the VP announcement is coming today.

Barack's getting ready to roll out his veep today. That's working.

The press is so egocentric they think any day without a press visibility is a day off for the candidates.

Michigan -- it's Obama's, unless something drastic happens.

The Obama machine is here, doing targeted registration drives, armed with an amazing (REACTED -- TOP SECRET) that they don't want the Republicans to know about.

I've seen one McCain sign and one McCain bumper sticker. Obama stuff is all over, including unofficial t-shirts.

Support for McCain can't quite reach 40% in my state. And this is all in spite of a ridiculous blanketing of our airwaves with his bullcrap ads.

I wonder if the widening gap in Michigan will force McCain to pick Romney.

Exactly. The need for Mitt.

Maybe that's why he was considering Ridge for VP.

MI and PA are the only so called swing states where Obama keeps a good lead. (See my post below to see why).

McCain: I have more houses that you can imagine.

I don't think Michiganders love the Romney brand as much as people think. His daddy was the governor way back in the '60s.

But Mitt moved out long ago. Got some other state to love him.

And rumor has it that he won the Michigan primary because of frustrated Democrats who wanted to mess with the Republicans. People I knew thought that voting for Mitt was a good way to keep the Republicans fighting on.

The good thing about Michigan and Pennsylvania is that both states have Detroit and Philly as firewalls. Still, there's no excuse to stop the ground work.

Barack Obama: He worked his ass off for his only house.

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No you know how we feel about the Obama commercials in GA.

Sorry, We haven't met. You are?

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The only Republican posting on here for the shear pleasure of the debate (i.e. not registered to win McCain apparel for post-points).

"sheer..."

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"Now you know..."

Nice to meet you, Mr. Now you know.

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Ha...the now you know was an attempt to fix the typo in my post...it wasn't No you know.

OK, Mr. No you know, nice to meet you then.

And those Obama commercials, do they compare McCain to some vapid celebrity, or blatantly lie about his tax plans?

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The Obama machine is here... armed with an amazing (REACTED -- TOP SECRET) that they don't want the Republicans to know about.

Hmmm.  Maybe that's why I spotted Larry and Sergey helping Dilbert crate up the Death Ray earlier this week and roll it out of the Googleplex.  Strange doin's afoot!

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Mitt as VP: it's just the McCain camp sending out a trial balloon, nothing more. After the huge evangelical backlash over pro-choice Lieberman/Ridge they're putting Mitt's name out there just to see what the Religious Right reaction is.

If the reaction is bad they're not gonna take any chances - they know how desperately he needs the evangelicals. Expect an ultra-conservative vp choice.

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I think they floated Lieberman/Ridge to make Mitt appear more palatable...when he's chosen.

Yep.

Lieberman at least. The only thing right wing about him is his support for the war so of course it was a joke. But I think he really would like to have Ridge on the ticket if he could.

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I pray that you're correct (first time ever!) But if the reaction is very negative they won't go with Mitt. Guess we'll see soon.

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First time I've been correct...or first time you've prayed for that to be the case?...lol

The biggest drawback to picking Mitt is that on the surface, he appears more presidential than McCain. Stand them side by side at the convention and McCain would look like a wizened boy wonder to Romney's batman. The fact that he is a mormon might cost them a few evangelical votes. On the plus side, in theory he would shore up McCain's weakness on the economy. Personally, I suspect Romney's business acumen is overstated but remember, it's all about appearances.

Well the facts of how he turned around the IOC does not lend to the characterization of 'overstated' but rather 'good acumen'.

It wasn't the IOC, it was the SLOC (Salt Lake Olympic Committee). Well, it proved that he could raise a lot of money for a one-time event, I don't know if that might translate into anything beneficial to the country. I'm confident he knows what would most benefit struggling rich folks.

Something tells me the Mother Teresa story will also get out soon. Their is multiple pieces Obama can use to build an easy anrrative of out of touch and full of sh*t.

Come on folks, he's working on the announcement for his veep, which will happen tomorrow. Seems like time well spent.

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Let's see, there is (potentially):

McInsane-Clinton '08
Destroy America's Hope one unfounded slur at time

McInsane-Mittens '08
A modern-day Tippecanoe and Tyler Too.

McInsane-LIEberman '08
Two guys destroyed in 2000 then having kissed Bush43 are taking another shot at ultimate humiliation.

McInsane-Graham '08
Always RIGHT about the ecomony.

McInsane-Rude-ee '08
Two punch-lines w/o a joke . . . Hey, I defy you two come up with something about two dead old guys with al least five wives between them.

Love these! Please make them into collectible buttons and t-shirts. I'll order a bunch, I promise.

Biden and Romney are the clear favorites.

It's got to be Brian Schweitzer.

Naw, it's Tim Kaine.

Jack Bauer.

Everyone, I got the call =(

That's right...I won't be the VP for the Democratic Party...at least not this year...

Unless he is trying to throw people off.....

Yessss!!

Romney was dubbed a "Robber Baron" in past elections because of how he came into his wealth. Basically if I understand correctly he's like the Richard Gere character in Pretty Woman, he'd buy failing companies and cut them up and sell them for parts, and most of the time there would be significant job loss.

In past elections involving Mitt, opponents would run ads with workers who lost their job because of Mitt.

I think Pawlenty or Portman make more sense. Pawlenty has the working class feel to him, his father was a trucker (or something like that) and he only recently cut off his mullet. Portman is an Ohioan, but was in the Bush White House. Problem with either is that they are not nationally known and at this late stage, basically two months out there is no way the country could get to know them enough to be comfortable with them. I mean Obama has been under a microscope for 19 straight months and people still have questions about him.

However Pawlenty is a young man, and has a long political career ahead of him. This is McCain's last kick at the can and he is willing to say whatever and do whatever necessary to get elected. Will Pawlenty want to tie himself to such a campaign? Will Pawlenty slink to the gutter level?

Mitt on the other hand, well this is his last shot at the big office as well. Whereas I guess he could run in four years, I don't know if that is realistic for him. Thus he might be more willing to join McCain in the gutter.

You know Lieberman would - and If McCain is going down swinging he might want his best buddy fighting along side him.

Is this current attempt to frame sticks on McCain and effects the poll numbers, McCain could get desperate and go for a Hail Mary candidate. A Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Sarah Palin, cross the aisle with Lieberman or go with a Republican pro-choicer in Ridge.

A dark horse candidate that could really gain in such an environment is Mike Huckabee. However Huck isn't going to run a gutter campaign. I could see something where McCain has a "come to Jesus" moment and fires all his campaign and hires back his old advisers and apologizes for where the campaign has taken him. He's then choose Huckabee to rally the Evangelicals and activate that ground game and make one final push as "The Maverick who lost his way, but found it again".

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"I mean Obama has been under a microscope for 19 straight months and people still have questions about him."
That's cuz he bleeds "nuance."

I mean Obama has been under a microscope for 19 straight months and people still have questions about him.

Most people haven't been peering into the microscope. Low-information voters are the perpetual majority. I'm not certain how you reach them, maybe hand out commemorative cups at Burger King...

CNN reports that Barack Obama has called several candidates who were on his short list for VP, to tell them that they didn't get it. But as you might expect, CNN was not able to find out who actually got these calls.

Great so the FBI, the CIA, and the White House all know who isn't the VP? I bet they didn't even bother signing up for a text message.

Great so the FBI, the CIA, and the White House all know who isn't the VP? I bet they didn't even bother signing up for a text message.

The FBI has narrowed down the list of likely nominees to Bruce Ivins.

On this date in history:

On August22, 2004, John Kerry led in states worth 286 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com, and a new poll showed Colorado tied. Kerry ended up losing in November with states worth 252 EVs and lost CO by 4.6 points.

On August 22, 2008, Barack Obama leads in states worth 269 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com. McCain leads in CO.

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Pawlenty also had a bridge fall down on him just a month after he vetoed a bill (a bi-partisian effort) to raise the gas tax a few pence so as to deal with the backlog of Bridge and Highway problems. Since then four additional Mississippi bridges have either been closed and are being demolished for replacement, or are in bad trouble with severe weight limits. Same bill passed over his veto this year, so now bridge replacements at least can be scheduled. Have fun making the TV ads on that one.

On the House Front -- someone needs to get scriptural about all this. "In my Father's House there are many Mansions" is not a commandment to go out and buy a zillion Mansions, and try to compete with Jesus's reference to his Father.

But the best thing to keep the House Meme alive while Obama himself moves on to weightier issues would be some good cartoons on YouTube. I think a take off from the classic Abbott and Costello piece "Whose on First" -- trying to decide among the houses, where to sleep tonight? might work very well -- done with KO's very cheap puppets.

kleefeld: please stop describing states as "must-win". it is completely inaccurate to describe any state as "must-win" unless there is absolutely no possible winning combination of states that doesn't include the state being described as "must-win". eliminate the term from your blogging vocabulary. states you regularly describe as "must-win" are more accurately described as 'battleground' states.

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