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CNN Poll Of Polls: Obama's Lead Is Gone

CNN adds its voice to the wailing Greek chorus:

According to a new CNN poll of polls, the Illinois senator's once-comfortable lead over McCain is down to only 1 point nationwide -- potentially troubling news for Obama as he gets set to accept his party's nomination in Denver.

Obama now leads McCain 45 percent to 44 percent, down from a 3-point margin in a CNN poll of polls yesterday and down from an 8-point lead in mid July.

National polls aside, on the bright side Pollster.com's aggregate of state polls still has Obama way ahead in electoral votes.


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this is really horrible thats why Im happy Obama is start to hit back hard. Or at least a little with
New Obama Ad: McCain-Reed-Abramoff

I just want to add that after the first debate I think Obama will get his lead back.

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Not with the desultory, "talmudic" style he tends employ when discussing contentious political issues.

Not if he gives lengthy academic answers while McCain gives soundbites.

I think people are forgetting the suggestion from two weeks ago that this is definitely Obama's plan; Let them throw everything at him, let McCain get as ugly as possible, then when he's done all he could, smash McCain over the head with hundreds of millions of dollars worth of hard-hitting attack ads.

This is a very worthwhile tactic, and one that can pay off bigtime toward the end of the general.

If that's not his plan, it oughta be.

It's been a long hot summer and there is much more to come. I'm not going to panic. If anything, this heat may take the gloves off Obama--and that might be a good thing.

Barack and his camp can deliver soundbites when they need to. I'm not worried about that.

Just wait till Obama names his VP, the Olympics fade, and Denver starts to rumble and buzz...


Spot on, Ohmmade and Turnaround. It's a nailbiting strategy to watch from outside, but from Saturday on this is Obama's show.

Never lost it. Zogby's a witch doctor pretending to be a pollster.

NBC-WSJ: Obama 45, McGoo 42. August 15-18

CBS-NYT: Obama 45, McGoo 42. August 16-19

Zogby: Obama a number I pulled out of my ass, McGoo a number I divined by reading the pattern of some bone fragments I threw on the floor. August 14-16.

CNN: Obama a meaningless number we obtained by performing a nonsensical mathematical operation, McGoo a meaningless number we obtained by performaing a nonsensical mathematical operation. August ohwhocares?

Thank you Steve, you nailed it again.

Oh No!

Talk to me after the convention! Then I'll worry!

Probably a fairer assessment would be after the first debate.

yeah I think all the debates that Obama had to go through with hillary should prepare him for the general and he should do good...hopefully



Video: McCain Agrees With A Draft

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I like the "wailing Greek chorus". Lotta that going around these days.

BTW, how come the Gallup Tracking Poll isn't up? Too contradictory for the theme du jour?

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it should have been up. hold

Aiiii! Oimoi!!! Kakos!

(just thought I would join the wailing chorus)

Who cares at this point? I am not paying attention any longer. The campaign decide to play defense when they should be all over McCain. I am keeping my money in my pocket until i see changes in strategy.

So true. Weak responses so far and a mirror of the Gore-Kerry capitulation model.

This is terrible news that Obama is only barely winning. Thanks for giving it to us straight, Greg.

McCain's SURGE into the mid-40s has me terrified and lying awake at night.

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Take a look at that map and tell me where we get another 7 electoral votes. Maybe Colorado and or Virginia but I hate to depend on them.

I'm sorry, CNN's poll of polls? Granted that maybe 8% of the people in the country have the math skills to know how staggeringly ignorant that concept is, but I did have this quaint notion that news organizations other than Fox had at least some duty not to go out of their way to make us stupider.

But rant aside, assuming both guys carry their their safe states, and counting New Mexico and Iowa as safe for Obama and Arizona, South Dakota and Missouri as safe for McGoo, just to keep the thing from getting so complex our heads explode,

if Obama adds Ohio and Michigan to his bag, he wins.

Moreover, if Obama carries only one of these two he wins if he also carries:

Virginia, or
North Carolina, or
Florida, or
Indiana, or
Colorado + Nevada, or
Colorado + Alaska or
Colorado + Montana, or
Colorado + New Hapmpshire, or
Colorado + North Dakota, or
Any three of Nevada, Alaska, Montana, New Hampshire, or North Dakota.

Flip the board around and look at it from McGoo's side. To win, he has to either hold on to Ohio or flip Michigan and then win every other one of the states I'm gaming as in play above. (

Okay, actually, if he keeps Ohio and loses Michigan, he can afford to lose one, and only one, of the three EV states.)

ooops! I crapped my pants!!

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THIS should have been your headline:

"...Pollster.com's aggregate of state polls still has Obama way ahead in electoral votes.

not what you have there:

Blockquote> "CNN Poll Of Polls: Obama's Lead Is Gone."

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oops

CNN Poll Of Polls: Obama's Lead Is Gone

There, that's better

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Um, but highlighting the Pollster.com evidence would contradict the theme du jour: Obama is a loser who's squandered an 80% lead, and we're not going to contribute one more dime to this wimpy loser until HE STARTS FOLLOWING EACH AND EVERY ONE OF OUR SUGGESTIONS!!!!!

And now let's return to rehasing McCain's attacks...Election Central has been outstanding in highlighting everything the McCain camp has done recently.

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Sigh. That should be "rehashing".

Duh. Edit, PLEASE?

I know you're just exaggerating with this comment, but you have seemed very well-reasoned in your comments in the past. Why do you refuse to take seriously the concerns of fellow Dem voters who are legitimately worried?

I can't speak for everybody, but I am not just worried and whining. At no point did I say or think that Obama cannot win. And I have at least have offered my thought on a strategy for a way out.

Bottom line: we can have an interparty war over polls and Obama's performance, OR we can have a constructive grown-up dialog on how we think we can get our guy back on top so we can win this thing.

But imho, your post and others like it who make fun of the situation or make fun of people who are concerned about the state of the race are equally as foolhardy as those who think the election is over.

Exaggerate much?

I'm one of those Dems still donating and still canvassing in my neighborhood and still aware of the MANY, MANY voter registration efforts in St. Louis. There is a ground game going on that is scaring the pants off the Republicans around here and is something that even the slumbering Democrats in the city machine are in awe of.

And we do remember how the general will be won, right? By that quaint Electoral College thing--like the primary where Hillary the Inevitable lost the nomination.

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Let's see what the NBC/WSJ poll shows today.

Perhaps McCain will be ahead as well.

WASHINGTON - With just days before the vice-presidential announcements, the political conventions and the final sprint to Election Day, Republican Sen. John McCain has cut Democrat Sen. Barack Obama’s national lead in half, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Overall, Obama holds a three-point lead over McCain, 45-42 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26314990/

McCain, a war hero who was held prisoner by the Vietnamese for over 5 years, has a lifetime of foreign policy experience, not including the over 5 years the war hero spent as a POW in Vietnam. John McCain, former POW and war hero, also happens to be a war hero who was held prisoner by the North Vietnamese for over 5 years.

McCain is a war hero, do you hear me????

McCain was a POW. He doesn’t like talking about it.

Do you hear me??

Really? I had no idea!

Coming from CNN, this this no news worthy.

CNN has announced the death of Tubbs Jones, sadly, they did not check the fact...

They have endorsed McBushSame.

They have lost their credibility long time ago...

This is the worse political team with FoxNews...

And I have boycotted CNN long time ago...

I agree with every one of your criticisms of CNN (and I have a few of my own to add). But here's the thing: If Obama doesn't win CNN, he will lose my mother and he will lose the election. CNN is the dumbest of the dumb-beast MSM TV outlets, but it is the only one that is more-or-less neutral. Obama must win CNN to win over my mother b/c she has it on all day long in the background. And Obama can do it! It appears that Camp Obama has finally awakened from its slumber and has begun to go after McCain. CNN, hopefully, will follow suit. And my mother will hear it.

Yup. Very good points. The boomers think CNN is the sh*t. My dad too, a lifelong Dem and bigtime Obama supporter. I don't get it... But agree with you that Obama CAN win CNN and I agree that I think he has to.

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Rasmussen just released his latest NH poll and it shows Obama ahead by 1 both with and without leaners. Most of this tightening is due to McCain solidifying his base - he went from winning 78% of GOP voters last month to 87% this month. Obama still has an 8pt lead among indies. Again, the base still isn't rallying to Obama in this, another key state. I think that will change after the convention.

In other Rasmussen news, Obama leads McCain 53-43 in Maryland. Yawn.

Insider Advantage poll in NC has McCain up by 2, 45-43, (Barr pulls in 5%) and Dole and Hagan in a real tie, 40-40.

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Isn't Insider Advantage a Republican outfit?

Or am I hallucinating?

They are a Republican outfit, closely associated with Newt Gingrich. Their polls always seem to have a +4 to 6% bias build in for the Republican in any given race vs. other contemporaneous polls of the population. However, they mysteriously always seem to slowly start moving more into line with the others the election approaches so that their last poll before the election gets an undeserved bump in the pollster accuracy ratings like the one at Pollster.com.

In most of the recent polls, Obama is dominating quite comfortably with independents but it's the soaring rise of republicans who are starting to support McCain the factor that makes the race a dead heat (I'm agree with many of you that the Zogby poll looks the outlier, for reasons you already seen here before).

The GOP base is coming home, period. Maybe the "celebrity" ad help them to jump for McCain, maybe they decided just to stop Obama. And maybe, some people who supported Obama are wandering and stepping back and forth (They're just not 100% committed, but they mostly lean Obama). The democratic base is also coming home, but at a slower pace (Not only some Clintonites, but also the so-called independents that really are GOP at heart).

McCain is taking a gamble and it paid off, sort of. The base is sold and they're going along. The question lies if some moderates and real independents (Not you, Lou Dobbs!) will start to back away after things like "I'm will be a pro-life president with pro-life policies" or the idea of start a new Cold War with Russia, who will play hardball this time. (Bush let them thanks to Iraq, so why won't they take the shot).

Still, the message must be sharpen. I agree with some critics on that. Maybe the "Drill here, drill now" is stupid, but is easier to swallow for some low-info folks. Don't get me wrong, I love the Obama style of responding because it actually tries to explain the problem and the solution, but as Brian Griffin of Family Guy said:

"...undecided voters are the biggest idiots on the planet. Try giving short, simple answers".

I'm for the positive campaign on the issues, but many average americans are not. But, in the end, the way of attacking must be done with caution, because if you go on the offensive without a clear purpose or a defined strategy, the backlash will make the Mondale defeat look like a photo finish.

Obama: Looking forward, not back.


Dole and Hagan in a real tie, 40-40

SWEET.

Thanks for at least pointing out at the end that Obama is still crushing McBush in the only measure which will matter - the state by state electoral vote counts.

People, national polls mean NOTHING. Polls showing how much % of the white vote Obama will lose mean NOTHING. Little variations and fluxuations in these polls mean just plain flat-out n o t h i n g. Our elections are state by state contests. How can people who are into politics keep falling for this time and time again?

Now, I'm definitely in the camp of those who think Obama has done a pretty poor job recently of both defining himself and attacking McCain. I'm still just stunned that he decided to take a damn vacation in the middle of this contest. Who on earth thought that was a good idea? Take the damn vacation in mid-November, dude. Now, NO!!! He missed a major chance to be a voice of reason in contrast to McCain's ludicrously over the top statements about Georgia. Now, McCain is seen as having gained great advantage there, even though what he was saying was utter crap, simply because there was no drumbeat from Obama or his camp refuting what McCain was saying. Coming out of vacation (especially one you shouldn't be taking in the first place) to make a single tepid statement about an issue your opponent is using against you does NOT cut it. This is a fight. You can just win by virtue of fighting a cleaner fight. Nobody is keeping track of how clean the damn fight was!

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According to Really Clear Politics Obama is not creaming anyone by any count. Last week RCP had Obama well over 300 Electoral Votes. Today while he's still up 228 - 163 in states outside the margin of error, RCP has it 274-264 McLame when you include the toss-ups.

The trend here is not good. Hopefully someone in the Obama camp sees this and we start to see some hitting back with a consistent theme. What I'd expect is that the "reckless/trigger happy" talk will go on for one news cycle and we'll be off to something else tomorrow.

I'm thinking of starting up a national polling outfit. The industry doesn't seem saturated at all.

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Oh, thanks for the very much needed laugh!

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I wouldn't mind a genderbending revival of Sophocles' Philoctetes, starring Hillary as the isolated archer, Patti Solis Doyle as Neptolemus, and Barack as Odysseus.

"Sleep, thou patron of mankind,
Great physician of the mind,
Who dost nor pain nor sorrow know,
Sweetest balm of every woe,
Mildest sovereign, hear us now;
Hear thy wretched suppliant's vow;
His eyes in gentle slumbers close,
And continue his repose;
Hear thy wretched suppliant's vow,
Great physician, hear us now.
And now, my son, what best may suit thy purpose
Consider well, and how we are to act.
What more can we expect? The time is come;
For better far is opportunity
Seized at the lucky hour than all the counsels
Which wisdom dictates or which craft inspires."

OK. Off topic, but I think my head's going to explode. Over on HuffPo, McCain is apparently willing to consider reinstating the draft while Obama is defending himself from the stupid "infanticide" smears. Oy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/20/mccain-on-bringing-back-d_n_120178.html

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Here's an issue that surely would boost turnout among the thirty and under set.

It could also underscore the "reckless" meme from the previous thread...

McCain is the honest one of the two in this case. Essentially he's giving America a reality check. Security in an increasingly dangerous world does not come free. Trying to make nice nice with peole who want to kill you at any cost does not work. Eloquent speeches will not stop a dirty bomb.

Kudos to McCain for being honest. A draft would be the quickest way to either get everyone board or end the unnecessary wars. It is the test of America putting its money where its mouth is. You little hipsters and dreamers are going to get a good dose of reality.

OT When Georgia decided they were going to beat up on their little sub-territory S. Ossettia wit the big bear friend did they ask their pal Condy or did they just go it alone like some kind of rabid mouse? If they asked her, what did she say: Go for it?



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This is not a new poll but a poll of existing polls.

In other words, not news.

and here is the latest poll in North Carolina. Senator Obama is within 2%...

according to Insideradvantage

McWar = 44.5%
Obama = 42.8%

McWar would get 17% of the black vote...

As I keep saying, this is fishy, but shows how close Senator Obama is in North Carolina...

Obama: UR DOIN IT WRONG. Wake the F up!

With all of the negative adds by team McCain, I'm not too shocked.

What I'm worried about, though, is the type of narrative that CNN and the mainstream media will
spin.

Obama campaign in turmoil.
Did Obama peak?,
Is he ready to lead?, etc.

At this point, the polls don't mean much to me.
It's how the media covers them is what concerns me.

I am skeptical that the debates will change anything. Consider the 2004 election.

-- Bokonon

Well the media have all endorsed McWars...They make more money covering wars than peace...

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...not to mention the money that the companies who own media outlets make from actually waging wars.

I agree, until they start hitting McCain hard
I'm off the bus.
I'm not going to back another effort like that of Gore and Kerry.

All they have to do is have an underling mention something about McCains past characterizations about women - something the media will run with - and McCain would lose 80% of the female vote.

Mark my words, all of you:

Toby Keith just endorsed Obama, and I believe Obama will realize a 3 point permanent bump from this alone. I believe Toby Keith has just won the election for Obama.

I realize how ridiculous this sounds, but I'm certain that Archie Bunker, the Fonz, Mr. Roper, your father-in-law, your mechanic, your family doctor, and the janitor at your kids' school would be more likely to vote for whomever Toby Keith endorses than whomever Bill O'Reilly or David Brooks tell them is a better choice.

He says he's a Democrat. Wow, would not have thought that. But having him perform in Denver, one has to do what one has to do, would be worth something for sure.

Okay, excuse me but my head just did this funny thing where the world got all fuzzy and I thought you said "Toby Keith endorsed Obama."

Are you sure? Do you have a link? Did Dick Cheney and Bill Kristol and David Dukes endorse him too? Did Natalie Mane endorse McCain? Is the sky still blue? Is gravity now a repulsive force?

No but Toby Keith is a repulsive force.

Nevertheless it is apparently true.

Beware!! He did not quite endorse Obama: "He's the best Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton" and "He said some really nice things" smells like a setup to me.

If Obama picks credit card and unregulated bank loan king Joe Biden we're screwed.

Obama has to either pick Hillary (because he fell so far in polls) or Wes Clark.

Obama better pick someone with a backbone because Obama doesn't have one.

I think Wes Clark would be the best choice, but don't see it happening. Obama needs to stand up to this POW extravaganza the way Clark did. Yes, McCain suffered as a POW, no this is not a qualification for president. Get that message out. Not much more to lose.

Polls have enough problems.

A "poll of polls" is ridiculous. A poll of polls isn't rational, under the laws of mathematics.

Sorry, CNN. It just won't work. Ever.

It is a catchy little graphic, though.

The only way a poll is even remotely useful is if you choose one set of metrics and use the results as a comparison. Choose your pollster and stick with it, if you like polls.

Like I said, actively going out of their way to make us stupider.

Obama’s opponent is NOT McCain right now. Obama’s real opponent is Obama. The problem with Obama is his arrogant thinking that he has the CREDIBILITY as a Democratic Party Leader. The primary electorate who voted for him overlooked his major weaknesses. First of all, he should accept that. Moreover, he doesn’t have any credibility to attack McCain because of his lack of presence in the National or State political scene in the last several years. Even his VP (like Biden, Nunn , Hillary) candidates may have credibility attacking McCain not him. Obama wasted almost two months of precious time with a ton of campaign money. With his ton of campaign money, he could have orchestrated several monologue type solo prime-time national town hall meetings (like Hillary’s Hallmark Channel town-hall meeting) to explain each of his public policy positions (Health Care/Economy & taxes/Foreign Policy/Iraq war etc) in a very substantive manner. Also, Obama could have used the friendly MSM to write positive things about his town-hall meetings. By presenting this way, the UNDECIDED ELECTORATE would have taken him seriously as a substantive leader. Since this was not done, the celebrity ads by McCain camp worked. It is already too late. Obama cannot do this in Denver convention. Right after convention, instead of big rallies and inspiring speeches, he should immediately conduct these kinds of solo National Town Hall Meetings in the prime time in NBC/CBS/ABC. This should be done before the first presidential debate and the World Series. Otherwise the game is over.

(Bill Clinton conducted these kinds of solo town hall meetings in 1992 and impressed lot of people like me with his substantive knowledge in Economy. His substantive explanation of Volcker/Carter’s fiasco in raising interest rates during 1976-80 recession time was hailed by the press and the electorate. At that time he was a small state governor and the electorate doesn’t know him either.)

Obama’s opponent is NOT McCain right now. Obama’s real opponent is Obama. The problem with Obama is his arrogant thinking that he has the CREDIBILITY as a Democratic Party Leader. The primary electorate who voted for him overlooked his major weaknesses. First of all, he should accept that. Moreover, he doesn’t have any credibility to attack McCain because of his lack of presence in the National or State political scene in the last several years. Even his VP (like Biden, Nunn , Hillary) candidates may have credibility attacking McCain not him. Obama wasted almost two months of precious time with a ton of campaign money. With his ton of campaign money, he could have orchestrated several monologue type solo prime-time national town hall meetings (like Hillary’s Hallmark Channel town-hall meeting) to explain each of his public policy positions (Health Care/Economy & taxes/Foreign Policy/Iraq war etc) in a very substantive manner. Also, Obama could have used the friendly MSM to write positive things about his town-hall meetings. By presenting this way, the UNDECIDED ELECTORATE would have taken him seriously as a substantive leader. Since this was not done, the celebrity ads by McCain camp worked. It is already too late. Obama cannot do this in Denver convention. Right after convention, instead of big rallies and inspiring speeches, he should immediately conduct these kinds of solo National Town Hall Meetings in the prime time in NBC/CBS/ABC. This should be done before the first presidential debate and the World Series. Otherwise the game is over.

(Bill Clinton conducted these kinds of solo town hall meetings in 1992 and impressed lot of people like me with his substantive knowledge in Economy. His substantive explanation of Volcker/Carter’s fiasco in raising interest rates during 1976-80 recession time was hailed by the press and the electorate. At that time he was a small state governor and the electorate doesn’t know him either.)

This is an election that will be a repeat of 1980.

No one's following these polls, the main poll people care about is Nov. 3.

The Republicans are in for a rude awakening.

IT'S THE FREAKING HILLARY HOLDOUTS WHO AREN'T GIVING O A BIGGER LEAD!

o's crushing mcsame with indies.

It would seem that is a big part of it, given the data on indies. I know how some feel about the Clintons, but one can only hope that they turn up the volume on their appeal to these people to get behind Obama.

I will not vote for Obama.
I do not support McCain.
Clinton '08 or '12.

Lucky for us, it's not about popular vote. Remember Obama's strategic ground game targeting to get himself more delegates? Well, that's what he's going now.

Where is Obama massive Inspirational Speeches to the Masses that was his forte. He is now acting like McCain, only entertaining these little town hall groups. He needs to go back to his Massive Inspirational Speeches to the Masses to get back his base voters. He doesnt need to do what McCain does, Mccain cant gain a crowd, Obama can. Who ever is advising him is not doing him justice. We need to hear his speeches. I only see commericials for John McCain, where is Obama spending his money?

Partly on the ground game.

And McCain has to spend all his primary cash before the convention.

Obama is also probably looking at blitzing the media after the convention. Spend too much of now he might find he needs it later if a 527 or two come out of the woodwork.

I was listening to NPR a little while ago and an Obama spokesperson in Minnesota says the problem with the recent Zogby poll (and I assume others) is that the pollsters aren't picking up the younger vote at this time due to their mobility (he said) and that they aren't focused on the election yet. It's summertime and they're out having fun.

What is the matter with you guys. Last week was vacation time and the olympics where what everybody was looking at. All the polls that come out now will reflect the same thing. They will reflect the views of folks last week when McCain had the week to himself. I was watching a republican pollster on C-Span, and he had the election as a dead heat, with McCain slightly ahead, but then he warned that August polls would have given us a president Dukakis, a second president Bush, and even a president Kerry. So there.
You cant just jump ship because of one week of polls.

Also, as a followup, I have several nieces and nephews between the ages of 20-30, most of whom will vote and most of whom will vote for Obama, but at the moment, their main concerns consist of important things like who's going to win the AL East division. Come November, they'll be there.

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Obama's limpid style and convoluted answers are losing him ground, but, as always, it's media framing.
Prime example: Russia, Georgia, S. Ossetia. Too many people don't get who started it (Georgia) and the MSM casts Russia as the initial aggressor. First impressions hold. And it's going to take a hell of a lot of work for Obama to dispel all the impressions people already have of him.
Oh, and he's also black, the elephant in the corner that dare not trumpet its name for fear of the race card accusation. That's reason enough for some to never support him but they won't admit it. And again, it's the media frame. Obama gets accused of making race an issue when it was McCain who did, very slyly. Would the media feel an obligation to dispel false notions? Surely, I jest.

There's nothing wrong with his approaches. we just fold like wimps whenever somebody challenges us for taking nuanced, intelligent approach. All we have to say is: "Obama thinks people are smarter than McCain gives him credit for" We'll never get intelligent leadership as long as we insist on candidate playing to the cheap seats all the time. Give us a leader who makes us feel like we're a nation of moderate intelligence for heaven's sake!

National polls aside, on the bright side Pollster.com's aggregate of state polls still has Obama way ahead in electoral votes.

Hate to burst your bubble, but www.realclearpolitics.com has McCain frickin AHEAD in the electoral college.

Pull it together, big O! We believe!

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I'm thinking your conservative myopia has turned from chronic to acute.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

I just checked RCP and it

That's in the no toss up states map, and they give McCain Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Flordia. When only those states that solid or leaning are looked at, Obama still has the lead.

Sorry: I just checked RCP and it shows Obama ahead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Go Big Mac! Why is it that democrats don't know how to pick a nominee? They always choose someone based on some useless characteristic; good looking, good speaker, makes me feel good inside, etc. Learn how to pick a winner. Republicans have dominated the White House the last 40+ years, becasue they want to win and they know how to put petty differences aside to win. They picked McCain because he was the only one who could get independants and give the a chance, not because they all love him. Obama has absolutely nothing that is required of the president, he is terribly lacking in experience and courage. He is such a wimp. Michelle has bigger balls than he does. Hillary is a real fighter and a winner. She should have gotten the nod, but I guess she doesn't send shivers up people spines, while reading a prepared speech via teleprompter. She and Bill know how to beat the republicans and how to get things done in the White House.

Quit your belly-aching. It's McCain who looks like a lawn sprinkler when he goes from teleprompter screen to teleprompter screen, chasing his poorly written, poorly delivered speech. Obama can actually talk to an audience without curing their insomnia on the spot.

Quit your belly-aching. It's McCain who looks like a lawn sprinkler when he goes from teleprompter screen to teleprompter screen, chasing his poorly written, poorly delivered speech. Obama can actually talk to an audience without curing their insomnia on the spot.

What ... do ... you ... mean? Deliberate ... and full of .... pauses ... like my old Rabbi? (long pause) Is that ... what .... you ... are ... saying?

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Bretster: "She and Bill know how to beat the republicans and how to get things done in the White House."

"Beat" is definitely the right word to describe how Bill knew how to get things done in the White House.
Ah, the old White House beat. A plum job for reporters and interns.

I think we have better things to do this election than hyperventilate about polls. Polls do not win elections, messages do, and the message we are all sending right now to the wider world is "circular firing squad!"

So folks, lets do ourselves a favor and act like we got some brains, some heart, some guts, and as gender appropriate, some balls. Anything else will just be a repeat of the same damn sad story we've repeated since Carter. Quit second-guessing ourselves, and lets kick some ass!

Bill was a great president. He wasn't a great husband. I couldn't care less about Monica Gate. He did a damn good job in the WhiteHouse and Hillary was at his side and they were a team. You would rather have another Jimmy Carter, than the only twice elected (two full terms) dem presidency since FDR. That is why dems always loose. Obama offers nothing but warm fuzzies. I want my country put back on track.

Agreed

I've got two numbers for you:

80%, which is the proportion of Americans sick with the way their country is going.

95%, which is the proportion of times St. Maverick McCain voted along with Bush.

Anybody who wants this country back on track should have the sense to vote against the candidate who voted with the president who put us on that wrong track.

Going from worst to just bad is not a great strategy. I believe neither Obama nor McCain should be president.

He's the smartest, toughest guy I've seen running in a long time. He's not beholden to your candidate's (if she is your candidate and not McCain) establishment system, whose strategy was basically turning the Democrats into a regional party.

I didn't vote for him for touchy-feely reasons, I voted for him because he combines great strategy, with tough rhetoric, which he's skilled enough to employ conversationally. This is a guy who I've seen repeatedly side-stepping the political conventional wisdom to capture the public's conventional wisdom. He's not some passive figurehead for the party, but an honest to God leader. That's what I want, and what this party needs.

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The best evidence that Clinton was not a great President is that the country wound up under Republican control when he left office. He had no lasting impact as did FDR and Reagan. When Bush came into office and the neocons hijacked foreign policy and drove us into war, Democrats, including most especially Mrs. Clinton had no policy argument to counter the neocons. They were struck dumb. They had nothing to say. They still don't have anything to say.

Bret08-
Warm Fuzzies? Is that what the McCain campaign offers you for trollery?

Hey, Obamic idiot. Supporting Clinton does not mean your are supporting McCain.

1) Clinton conceded the election to him, and threw her support to him. This is her publically stated position.

2) Therefore, those who truly support Clinton should follow her lead.

3) If you're doing your best to badmouth and sink the chances of Obama, you are not supporting your candidate or Obama, but the only remaining opponent on the field likely to win, who is McCain.

4) Therefore, your actions likely are in support of McCain, and I will treat them accordingly. If they are not, they are still effectively supportive of McCain, and I will deal with that accordingly.

No. She suspended her campaign. She very carefully did not concede.

I will not be complicit in electing either Obama or McCain. They both are unacceptable.

My point is that Clinton is the best candidate and the only one who can beat McCain.

And there is still time, not much, but it is possible. If cooler heads prevailed they'd realize that there really only is one alternative to McCain and it is Hillary Clinton.

She didn't end her campaign because that meant she couldn't recover any of her personal expenditures. Edwards did the same, for the same reason.

Clinton's out of the race. And don't think that she could come out more strongly with some brilliant coup d'etat at the convention. If she came out of that, then McCain would mercilessly emphasize her as the second choice of her party.

Obama was the first choice. Going with anybody else only makes a weaker position, even if he is the weaker candidate.

But he's not. He outmanuevered Clinton, and he'll out manuever McCain. McCain is copying your same strategy, which means, he's setting himself up to lose.

but why leave it to chance for Obama to 'out manouver' McCain when just the addition of HRC would energize at least 18 million and raise the momentum of the Democratic party?

Biden, Bayh and Kaine .. Yawn.

McCain offers hope that we will have someone who knows what the hell he is doing. POTUS is a very important job. Experience matters. I am a life long democrat and I stayed home in 2004 because Kerry was the worst nominee since Mondale. I couldn't and wouldn't vote for Bush, but McCain is a moderate and I am a moderate. Obama can't even answer a question with knowledge and conviction.

McCain is a moderate who voted 95% of the time with the least moderate president of modern times.

Which means, he's not moderate, much less a maverick. He's a rank and file Republican who stages occasional rebellions to make himself seem mavericky. Obama, on the other hand, can answer question with some degree of thought regarding what he's saying. Some take that as stupidity, but I'll let those people sort out their affairs for themselves.

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2 new polls have come out:

CBS/NYT poll: Obama 45, McCain 42

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama 45, McCain 42

Exact same numbers. These polls say the bottom line is that Obama has NOT united the base around him. If Obama unites the base around him than he will win folks.

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I imagine McCain has Huckabee and Romney supporters a la Bret08 and fogu2 undermining the McCain campaign in hopes that the Huckster or the Mittster will be the nominee.
It's time to fold the tent, folks, and get on the bandwagon.

The McCain bandwagon? Why should I get on the bandwagon of somebody who got on Bush's bandwagon in order to get nominated? The guy, in this election, has completely wussed out on everything I can remember him distinguishing himself from other Republicans with! If he wasn't that committed to those positions, then in reality, he's just a mediocre Republican at best, and a hothead doctrinair at worst. Which means he's just like Bush!

In fact, exactly like Bush. Bush, you remember, was the compassionate conservative. This in contrast to the ones taking hippies out back and beating the crap out of them, apparently. Oh, he made such promises about what a moderate fellow he was going to be. Then he ran the most far-right adminstration this country has seen since Nixon, only worse.

Why, remind me, am I supposed to jump on this bandwagon?

I think the thing that causes reactions to be so strong is that people get so negative and every person starts thinking that their own personal plan is much better than any professional campaign advisers could be AND then they say they're not going to help fund the campaign until the Obama campaign does whatever it is that they think it should do.

For myself, I'd rather see him start lying through his teeth and trashing McCain into the ground-----which is the winning strategy used by republicans for some time now------than lose. I don't think we can afford to lose this time. But, I don't think my thinking is more brilliant than the professionals and I keep sending money faithfully.

p.s. If he did start doing what the repugies do to win, some of us would be glad and many of us would attack him unmercifully. Sometimes I think we're too "honorable" to win and too conflicted to lead. What's with us dems? Have we become the slaves of the century who are doomed to domination because we won't take control in a unified way?

Dr. Wang's EV simulation is at its lowest of the cycle # Obama: 289
# McCain: 249


Current single-poll median: Obama 280, McCain 258 - August 20th, 2008, 9:10am by Sam Wang

A reader asked about a statement by David Gergen on CNN that based on [an average of ] the most recent polls, McCain would win the Electoral College. Using only the most recent available poll in each state (as opposed to the last three polls, our usual top-line estimate), assigning every state to its more likely winner gives total EV counts of Obama 264, McCain 261, tie 13. This is the mode of the distribution, and is the closest result that I can get to what Gergen said. However, even that’s not quite right…

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/08/20/current-poll-calculation-obama-280-mccain-258/#more-397

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Hopefully Obama will get a bounce from the Dem convention.

Okay, great. Now, I can't stop extemporizing verses to a blues song called "His Lead is Gone" in my head.

Agreed. Women might be saying they aren't voting for anyone, but we will vote for Obama. Even if they are only voting for Supreme Court nominees, it is still a reason to vote.

With women and the under 30's getting out in force, it will happen.

They need to get Michelle out there. Women like someone with balls.

It is hugely important for Obama to keep a national lead. Part of his appeal is that he represents the nation's best hope to get us out of this 8 year funk. When it doesn't look like the people want the change anymore (when the polls are tied) it won't matter what the state-by-state polls say, the newly registered, first time voters will think the cause is lost and many won't bother showing up to the polls in November.

Obama has to start hitting McCain back hard. "John McCain distorts my positions because he doesn't have any." Or better yet "Only John McCain is taking money from Washington Lobbyists."

THey have to hit back hard, PLEASE!!!

Yes, they should hit back (and we're starting to see that), but your first paragraph doesn't make sense. People don't think the cause is lost when polls are tied--there's a bigger risk of complacency with a big lead. Mind you, I'd rather see Obama up by 20, but this little wake up call is not the end of the world.

The Brits have a good piece on McCain dumping his ex wife. What a pig. Gotta get this out more.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1024927/The-wife-John-McCain-callously-left-behind.html

There are two ways to look at this. One is that Obama is underperforming because he's not crushing a guy who essentially is Bush with less hair and an ill-fitting suit. But look at it from this angle: McCain is underperforming as well. Except for Zogby, he's been stuck in the low forties in just about every other national poll, and he hasn't moved up much, even as Obama's numbers have dropped. In red states like NC and Ohio, after running a barrage of negative commercials, he's still in a statistical dead heat with a black Democrat with a foreign-sounding name that many people suspect is a closet Muslim. Not exactly an impressive performance for old Quickdraw.

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What the 2 latest polls show (NBC/WSJ & CBS/NYT polls) that if Obama was to unite the Democratic base, he WILL win comfortably.

That is MORE important that attack ads, etc.

As a proud longtime Clinton supporter and lifelong Democrat, I am also very proud to vote for the people's choice from my party, Barack Obama. Me and all the Clinton supporters I know all feel the same way. We're not happy that she lost and we still think she was the best candidate.

But we especially don't understand the viciousness of the Obama supporters around here who should be doing their small part to unite the party by stopping with the Clinton hate speech - don't stop the hating (that's too much to ask) - just the hate speech. I still see gratuitous slams on the Clintons on every "progressive" blog every day - sometimes I think I'm reading Michael Medved posts or something.

If it's true that 25% of the Clinton voters won't commit to pollsters that they support Obama, perhaps some should look in the mirror to figure out how this could possibly be. Anyhow, I think maturity will win out and nearly all of the Clinton supporters will get out and work for and vote for the Democratic ticket after the convention. Victory in 2008!

I don't see how these national polls are accurate if the third party candidates are not included.

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I repeat what I said earlier: national polls are pretty meaningless, and any polls taken before the conventions are totally meaningless. Or, to use a better word, they mean bupkes.

After the conventions are over, the post-convention bumps have passed, and the campaign has actually begun, *then* the polls might mean something. Might. At least the state-by-state electoral-college polls. Otherwise, and until then, bupkes.

Peace,
Paul

I would agree, just add that the polls right now do give a basic pulse of where the electorate is at: which would be Obama has a slim lead, basically the same as it has been since he won the nomination.

I suggest everyone look at the polls for Bush/Kerry. In early September Bush was cleaning Kerry's clock, +7, +16, +11, but by the time the election rolled around it was +3, +1, tie, +3.

pollster.com's bizarre methodology has its electoral college analysis at odds with electoral-vote,com, RCP, and fivethirtyeight.com. Why tpm bothers with some pollster.com graphs is beyond me unless it is to look at Obama-biased analysis that defies the reality assessed by everyone else.

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