Another Big Tracking Poll Shows Obama Convention Bounce
Another major tracking poll is showing the start of a convention bounce for Barack Obama. The latest numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, up from a 47%-47% tie yesterday.
Bear in mind that this is a three-day rolling poll that stopped sampling some time yesterday -- meaning we've only just begun to see the impact of Bill and Hillary Clintons' speeches, and no impact at all from after Obama's big victory speech last night.
Yesterday's Gallup poll also showed a convention bounce, with Obama taking a solid 48%-42% lead.
Stay tuned for today's Gallup tracking poll, due at 1 p.m.
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It's good news until the media poops its pants with glee and runs all over to the Palin story.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
August 29, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm so tired of daily polling. If America doesn't vote for Obama in the fall -- then I don't know what this country stands for anymore. It's clear to me that, no matter what the polls say, we need a new direction in this nation.
http://thepajamapundit.com/
August 29, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny, but in the wake of last night's speech, I really couldn't care less about polls, either.
A bounce is nice, but the only poll that matters is yet to come and the fight has just begun.
August 29, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Polls mean very little until October.
The ground game will be more important than any pollster is currently accounting for. Add that to the decreasing use of land lines and what you have is much ado about nothing.
August 29, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
And national polls mean even less. It's not a national vote, it's 50 state votes resulting in Electoral College votes. Leading in national polls is nice but it doesn't meana thing come election day. Just ask Al Gore.
August 29, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, for now the only use polls have is feeding the blogs and cable news.
Speaking of Cable News, are we finally past the PUMA horse shit? Can they focus on something other than the Clintons? I hope so, I think Bill and Hillary did a masterful job of backing Obama.
August 29, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. If America continues to choose fear over hope, aggression over peace, and ignorance over enlightenment I truly fear for our future.
August 29, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Palin = Harriet Miers. This ain't exactly a pick that will slow an Obama bounce.
http://pufferfish.typepad.com/
August 29, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's only been in office for two years and Alaska politics (I was born and raised in Alaska and my parents were political animals) is not like politics in the lower 48.
And she has hit some snags in the last year for abuse of power. Look it up, she is not without controversy.
Not only that, but if Obama wanted to play by the GOP handbook he could tie her to the CBC (corrupt bastards club.) I don't think she has much in the way of ties to the CBC, but that wouldn't stop the GOP if they were in our shoes.
August 29, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please don't even fantasize about such a tragic occurrence as Obama adopting Rovian principles.
August 29, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forget the poll for, now, and focus on organization. I am looking forward to the polls in Ohio, Michigan and Missouri nest week. I won't be surprise if Indiana turns blue come November.
August 29, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
CNN has confirmed it, its Palin.
August 29, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
He has fricking lost whatever he had left of his mind.
August 29, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
So - why? I mean - I don't know one thing about this woman - I never heard of her.
August 29, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's got one year experience as governor...that's it. Before that she was mayor for some town I've never heard of. In addition, she's apparently had some scandal issues involving abuse of power. How can he possibly attack Obama now for lack of experience?
August 29, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
She's a less rich, less well-connected, less sophisticated Dan Quayle from a more out-of-it state.
August 29, 2008 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just saw that.
I knew he'd pick a woman.
August 29, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I hate to say this, I'm with Joe Scarborough on this one: it's way too obvious a pander to Hillary supporters. I know I'm biased, but as a woman, I'm a little offended.
August 29, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess Cindy doesn't have enough mojo for McCain.
August 29, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
National polls don't matter...
...except that they set the media narrative. The narrative that - as the polls absorb the speech last night - will be that Obama is kicking McCain's ass.
August 29, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
There isn't going to be this big bounce because the conventions are too close. Who cares anyway? The only poll that matters is in november. We'll be around 45/45 until the first debate and if obama hits a home run then the polls will reflect it. This really is reagan/carter 1980. As long as people feel ok about obama, he will win.
August 29, 2008 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Call it what it is -- not so much a convention bounce as a Clinton bounce.
August 29, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Again Eric informs us from on high that any improvement in the polls is to be credited to the Clintons.
Sen. Biden may as well never have been born or taken the Convention by storm as he did so far as Eric knows.
August 29, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
s--cat----do you think any of hillary's supporters will do the math, and figure if mcCain wins, then Palin could be the first woman to finally make it instead of Hillary---and if McCain loses--- 2012 and 2016 could present opportunities for Palin---even a loss in 2012 would not finish her.
August 29, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Speaking of likely women, what did folks think of Susan Eisenhower last night? Despite her nervousness, her lack of experience dealing with a crowd like that (who has that anyway?), I'm wondering if she might not have a bright future in an Obama adminstration.
I've seen her on Charlie Rose, for example, and her experience and knowledge, especially of foreign affairs, are very impressive. And her family heritage isn't so shabby, either.
It struck me while she was speaking that the contrast between Eisenhower and McCain could be very, very useful polemically for Obama. Eisenhower, a West Point graduate who, while working for MacArthur gradually became renowned as a brilliant trainer and leader of men, compared to McCain? The great general who commanded the Allied Forces who was the furthest thing from the trigger-happy McCain, whose claim to military fame is having the right parentage and getting captured?
August 29, 2008 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. Her international experience might be very useful to Obama.
http://www.eisenhowerinstitute.org/about/board/susan_eisenhower.dot
She's got languages (fluent in at least French and Russian), and has lived in Russia.
Is she still married to that Russian physicist with whom she had that romance that became a book?
http://www.amazon.com/Breaking-Free-Memoir-Love-Revolution/dp/0374262462
August 29, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to belabor the Eisenhower connection (though I admit I'm fascinated, since I grew up in a household that idolized Ike, my father having served under him in the War), but I just remembered that the President's son John, Susan's father, endorsed Kerry in the last election.
August 29, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The greatest thing about the rasmussen poll is the favorable---actually---the very-favorable-very unfavorable daily trends.
Obama has bumped from 33-30 on August 26, to 35-27 today---on figures which do not include last night's speech, and partially do not include the Clintons' speeches.
McCain has remained significantly lower in both parts--indicating he is not well defined. (some voters might have heard-he was a pow).
He was 21-19 on the 26th---today he is 21-23.
August 29, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Still bupkes, even if it's in favor of our guy. The polls won't mean squat until mid-September, after the convention bounces have played out, and even then the only ones worth paying attention to are the polls in individual states. Watch places like Indiana and the Dakotas; if, in mid-September, they start trending for Obama, then things will look good.
Until then, it's all bupkes.
Peace,
Paul
August 29, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink