McCain Outspending Obama By Hundreds Of Thousands In Many Core Battleground States
The McCain campaign has outspent the Obama camp by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and in some cases by as much as a million dollars or more, in virtually all of the dozen battleground states where both campaigns are up on the air, according to a firm that tracks national advertising.
Evan Tracey, the chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, confirmed to us in response to our questions that McCain's campaign has racked up a huge ad spending advantage in what he called "traditional battleground states," the states that both campaigns are sinking cash into.
McCain is advertising heavily in 12 traditional battlegrounds; Obama is advertising in those same 12 plus roughly seven more; and McCain holds a heavy advantage in virtually all the 12 shared states.
The comparison is significant, and in one sense it lends comfort to Obama, because McCain has not been able to pull ahead in those states despite vastly outspending him in them. But the flip-side of this is that Obama has not been able to make significant enough headway in many of the seven states where Obama has the airwaves to himself.
Here's the comparison of the two camps' spending on ads up to the present in the 12 states where both are up on the air, according to Tracey:
Iowa: McCain has spent roughly $700,000 more than Obama.Missouri: McCain has spent roughly half a million more than Obama.
Ohio: McCain has spent approximately one million more than Obama.
Pennsylvania: McCain has spent roughly a million and a half more than Obama.
Michigan: McCain has outspent Obama by about a million dollars.
New Hampshire: Spending is about even.
New Mexico: McCain has spent approximately $300,000 more, and has outspent Obama by roughly two to one.
Nevada: McCain has outspent Obama by $800,000, also roughly two to one.
Missouri: McCain has spent $500,000 more than Obama.
Virginia: Obama has spent a million more than McCain, largely because Obama is advertising statewide while McCain is only up in a small part of the north.
Wisconsin: McCain has spent roughly a half million more than Obama.
North Dakota: Obama has outspent McCain by around $170,000.
The reason for this is partly that both campaigns are spending at roughly the same rate overall, but Obama is spread thinner and is spending in more states. Tracey says that the campaigns are both spending between $1 million and $1.6 million a day overall.
Meanwhile, Obama is up on the air in all of McCain's states, but also in Indiana, Alaska, Montana, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and southern Virginia.
"There are two ways to look at this," Tracey says. On the one hand, Obama is pouring significant resources into seven states where McCain is spending nothing at all, and hasn't necessarily gained enough in those states to show for it.
But Tracey adds that the spending disparity in the core battlegrounds also bodes well for Obama in some ways. "The concern for McCain is that he's outspending Obama" in the more traditional battlegrounds at a rate "that's not going to be sustainable," he says. "But he's not building any real leads in these states."
The Obama campaign may be banking on the fact that with enough spending in non-traditional states they can eventually force the McCain campaign to broaden the number of states they're spending in, making it tougher for the McCain team to keep pace with Obama's spending advantage this fall.
Late Update: Some of you rightly note that Colorado isn't on the list even though both campaigns are advertising there. We'll bring you word on Colorado's spending disparity as soon as we get it.
Separately, it's worth pointing out that the total list where both are up is still 12, even including Colorado. That's because Virginia shouldn't really be on the list, because McCain's advertising is very limited there regionally.
Late Update: We inadvertently left Colorado and Michigan off the list of states where both are advertising; they've now both been added, above. Also, North Dakota was accidentally described as a state where Obama is advertising solo; in fact, both campaigns are up on the air there.
Finally, we initially said that there are 11 states where both are up on the air; it's in fact 12 states, not counting Virginia, which is a special case because McCain is only up in a small northern corner of the state in order to access the D.C. market. Obama is up statewide there.
Obama is waiting till the conventions are over. Waiting for McCain to do all his primary money spending. I would expect these # to change after the conventions.
August 18, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah because mccain cant use the money he raised now after the convention because then he would be getting the 84 million, so he has to spend that money in some fashion instead of wasting it on Britney and Paris type ads.
Warren Lied, McCain Wasn’t In The Cone of Silence
August 18, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
By that time, McCain's defining and framing of Obama may have quick dried and all the money in the world will only dent the image.
If he loses this election and his ignominy will rank with Bush and McCain in the annals of American history. Seems like he's doing his best to do just that. It's almost like he's a Manchurian candidate for the Republicans.
August 18, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hi,
I think it is depressing that at this stage of the race McCain is already catching up. Hisstroical analysis show that a Dem needs to be up by alot more at this point to squeeze through. The Republican attack machine has not even started yet and Obamas responses appear in shambles. I am resigning myself to a 300+ EV win by McCain. I never thought it would be so easy.
August 18, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd like to see this "analysis"....you got a link? What in any of your "schoolin" leads you to believe that polling trends in past elections are indicative of what will happen in this one? If that's the case then I think we should just poll at the end of August and not even bother holding the election in November. Hey.....why waste the money?
August 18, 2008 8:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll bet dollars to doughnuts (where did that expression come from?) that Obama tops 325 EVs and 400 isn't out of the question.
Obama will win more than one of those traditionally red states in which he is now spending $ on TV and organizing -- good investments!
He will also do well in all of these battleground states and may sweep them!
How?
1. Momentum heading into September with the VP slection, a great Dem convention, college students heading back to campus, and a solid summer or grass roots organizing in all 50 states!
2. His money advantage will allow him to outspend McCain in TV overall. And, I expect more locally targetting TV ads like the DHL ad in Ohio.
3. Obama will out-work McCain 3 or 4 to 1. The reality is that a 72 year old candidate doesn't have the stamina to do 3 or 4 events per day; he does 1 and usually takes 2 days off per week. Obama can go 6 or 7 days per week (and will!)
4. This is a change election and Obama is the change candidate.
5. Obama is a coachable candidate who continues to get better and better.
6. Strategically speaking, Obama has been focusing his attention on orgaizing and laying the foundation for his fall campaign; he has not been worrying about national polls! I anticipate that the campaign will now focus on raising his support in all of the states listed above.
In contrast, the McCain campaign will rely on personal attacks and other Rovian strategies.
Obama is ready.
August 18, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed this will be a threshold election. Once voters are satisfied that Obama can serve the election will break big towards Obama.
I have read almost a dozen blogs from other sites where Independent voters said that after Saddlebake McBush scared them to death. The fact that he is a black and white, binary thinker and is obsessed with war even during a church sponsored forum was alarming to them. A few of them did not even know that McBush was staunchly anti-women's right to choose. Now they know for sure McBush would just be like Bush, self assured on every issue but wrong on every issue.
August 19, 2008 12:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
You've "resigned yourself to a McCain win"?! That is BS, I'm sorry. Go out and do something about it. There's plenty we can do between now and November 4th to keep that from happening.
August 19, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo - McCain has $$ to burn that he has to get rid of by the RNC campaign.
After the conventions the $$ will tilt along with our ground game and McSame is going to be cooked..
August 18, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope Obama, while waiting for McCain to shoot his load on a primary spending spree, doesn't find himself behind, because he was asleep at the wheel. Letting all these attacks go unanswered could help McCain get traction on some of his points. Many people, myself included, have often said that a critical thing for Obama to do is maintain a war room, and never, ever, let any attack go unanswered beyond the same news cycle. Failure to do so often lets those attacks gain traction, and take on a life of their own, driven by the news media and Internet blogosphere. A signature strategy of the successful Bill Clinton White House runs was to maintain such a policy against attacks, and a failure of the Kerry and Gore runs was the failure to do so.
August 18, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, tell Obama to give up on GA, he's wasting his money. McCain will win GA and Republicans pick up GA-8 and GA-12, put it in the bank!
August 18, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed, unfortunately. I suspect (hope) we'll see a major shift in tactics post convention. I keep telling myself these guys know what they're doing, but I am still girding myself for President Walnuts. Ugh ugh ugh.
August 18, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a lot of logic to a 50-state campaign. True, the likelihood of Obama winning Georgia is very small. But by putting money in the state, it forces McCain to compete there, spreading out his more meager funds. Second, it will help in down-ticket races, so even if Obama loses Georgia, other Democrats might win, making a President Obama's legislative goals more likely to manifest. Third, it builds the party over the long haul. The Democrats aren't going to win back the South in a generation, but with dedicated resources, eventually we will. Obama wants to do more than win, he wants the Democratic party to be strong, unified, and sustainable, everywhere in America. So, for myself, I hope he keeps sending resources into Georgia and all the 50 states.
August 18, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny, I heard this same sentiment from my Alabama relatives during the primary. They told me that Hillary would take Alabama by a blow out and that I could "put it in the bank." Instead of figuratively taking it to the bank, I should have literally bet them actual money (then taken that to the actual bank.)
August 18, 2008 10:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Obama is making headway in Georgia, especially in voter registration, and can possibly win outright, due to higher Democratic voter turnout than the historical average.
The fundamental error that Republicans are making is in assuming that they can win based on their existing power structure. Meanwhile, there are over 500,000 unregistered black voters in Georgia, along with many young voters, who are strongly tilted towards Obama. And, unlike McCain, Obama has a serious ground game for registering new voters.
What it comes down to is that the Republicans have nothing to offer the future of America, and nothing that appeals to the next generation of voters, who simply don't see the world in the same way as older voters. It also seems likely that Bob Barr will be a big feature in the race in Georgia, as much of a "change" vote as a protest vote against McCain.
Even amongst OIF veterans, Barack Obama is receiving donations over McCain by huge margins. That's something that Obama should aggressively point out, as it flies in the face of McCain's claims of being the candidate of choice for veterans. Obama just needs to do a better job of making the argument, which will be a lot easier later on in the race, when he starts to truely dominate with his ground game, his large speeches, and his fundraising superiority.
In large part though, it probably won't matter whether Obama wins in Georgia this time around, as he leads across the rest of the nation, and will be well-situated to make permanent inroads for Democrats in Georgia over the course of his administration.
August 19, 2008 1:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's in part because McCain is currently gaming the finance system, after opting in and then out of public financing for the primaries. He keeps raising money and has to spend it down before the convention, when he will be bound to the $80 million or so in federal funds. (Unfortunately, the 527s won't.)
August 18, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, that's exactly what is going on.
On a side note, I just heard mcbush claim that petraeus was one of the greated military leaders in american history. What? Is this guy delusional or what. Petraeus isn't even in the top 100. Give me a break.
August 18, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain said the same thing at Saddleback.
August 18, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The guy is totally over the top. It's ridiculous. In fact, there is an argument that petreaus screwed up when he was in iraq leading the 101st early on. Also, the "surge" really had nothing to do with the decrease in violence. What stopped the violence was the ethnic cleansing that occurred and the buying off of the militias. Now they are just waiting us out and it will explode again when we leave. Best in american history my a**.
I hate cnn, now I am listening to them push clinton as vp again for the thousandth time. I can't wait until the vp is selected and the praise for the clintons from the right wing media ceases. It really is tiresome.
August 18, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think most of us here feel the same way.
August 18, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there any information available on what percentage of their overall funds each campaign is spending on tv advertising vs other expenses (ground organizing etc)?
August 18, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is just advertising, it does not include money spent on the ground game. From the first lines:
"according to a firm that tracks national advertising."
At least that is the way I'm reading it.
Now smarter folk than I can tell you how wise investing heavily on the ground game is, but just advertising doesn't seem to be doing much right now and the effect of the ground game won't be fealt until November.
Or maybe I'm totally wrong.
August 18, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ask George W. Bush how smart investing in the ground game is. Its how he won Ohio and Florida in 2004. They were light years ahead that year of us in GOTV, canvassing, voter registration, and organization. They had centralized microtargeting operations and a network of field operatives.
We had some old guys down at the local union hall with a box of index cards. That used to be our "edge" and Rove turned it into our Achilles heel.
That whole operation Rove built rotted from the inside out after he left and McCain has just tossed the remains over the side. Its exactly the kind of thing that bores him, relies on technology he doesn't like or understand and its no fun.
August 18, 2008 5:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I"ll go back further than that. The development of local GOP GOTV resources is what took Congress out of the Dem's hands after 50 some years and that was under Newt in 1994.
The Democrats relied heavily on union resources and those resources are still important to GOTV efforts in a lot of places--St Louis is one of them. The old Dem city machine still creaks around but it's really a rusty relic of its once glorious self--when the unions were a quarter of the work force and not 7% like today. Finally, though smart Democrats are organizing differently--and that's Dean and now Obama.
The GOP has real reason for concern because a new machine operation on the local level will put Democrats back into Congress for another 50 years and hopefully a Dem president for the next 30 at least.
August 18, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is just advertising -- and doesn't even include direct mail AFAICT; I'm not even sure it includes radio. Which is why this is yet another stupid, overblown headline. If these numbers justify a claim that "McCain is far outspending Obama in big states..." then they also would seem to indicate that McCain has conceded Florida. In fact FL is the one state where McCain is way ahead on the ground; they seem to be holding their fire media-wise in FL, which makes some sense given their lead there.
There's nothing here.
August 19, 2008 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is advertising money, right?
What about campaign offices?
And secondly, McCain HAS to spend this money, or it's just circling down the drain...
August 18, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 2 million donors are going to be critical starting in September. One hundred dollars per donor for the general election would be all Obama needs--that's $200MM. $100. $50 per month. $200MM.
After giving steadily since last year. I think I can handle that. $100.
August 18, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I an waiting for Obamna to ask his 2 million donors for $100. My checkbook is ready and willing.
August 18, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn, you need a special invitation now?
August 18, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I don't need a special invitation. I have been contributing every month. I just think it would be very effective if he would email all 2,000,000 contributors and tell us that the battle is now on in full and that he needs our help to blow McSame away. I think he would raise more than $200,000,000.
August 18, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Expect that e-mail the day after the convention.
August 18, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sure hope this is not going to be another one of those years like the Kerry campaign, where they lose the election, with money left in the bank!
August 18, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
This story explains exactly why McCain is hanging around. Notice that he hasn't broken about 45%. Instead his negative campaign is pulling Obama down, but he isn't pulling him down enough. The problem is that after August Obama will be able to outspend McCain two or three to one everywhere. As to the DNC v. the RNC, the DNC out raised the RNC last month. Expect that to continue. I suspect if McCain can he will try to figure a way out of Federal Campaign financing. I am not sure he isn't committed at this point.
McCain's negative ads haven't worked as well as he expected and although things look close in the long run he is really trailing and trailing badly.
August 18, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that's pretty spot on.
August 18, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope it is.
August 18, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And all McCain has to show for it is a tie?
August 18, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
A tie, a little voter enfranchisement, and a diebold machine here and there - the next thing you know, you got a Rebpublican landslide!
August 18, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's exactly how it's going to work.
Caging lists. Check.
Voter roll purges. Check.
E-voting with no audit trail. Check.
All pretty much already done.
The McCain attacks are about making the election close enough to steal. And so far, it's working.
As Josh notes on the front page, from a reader's email:
And as Frank Rich in the NYT noted this past Sunday:
(Yes, Rich's column also scoffs at what he calls the "Obama-is-doomed" crowd. I sure hope his predictive skills match his confidence.)
If O. goes into this with anything less than a 10-point advantage, he's flirting with disaster.
Remember the Republican two-step:
1) Make the election close enough to steal, by any means necessary.
2) Proceed to steal.
August 18, 2008 8:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, what's your theory about how the Democrats won both houses in 2006?
Despite Rove's THE MATH?
The Democrats are well aware of the dirty vote tricks and are doing plenty to neutralize it.
I think the Republican's ability to fraudulently acquire votes is greatly exaggerated. ESPECIALLY now that many of the agencies that would pursue criminal prosecutions are controlled by Democrats (most notably in OH).
The Dems have been in power for two years now, don't you think they have been working on that feverishly to go beyond what they already fixed in 2006?
The climate for Republicans was a lot better in 2006, too.
There’s no question that there are many illegal voting schemes that could be done in this coming election and many of these potential schemes favor Repubs.
But the more relevant question is: How many of these operatives will be willing to roll the dice on the possibility of serious jail time, if caught? I suspect, not many.
Heck, not even in AK! Who would have thunk it?
If the Repubs were in charge in a lot more places maybe I’d be a little more worried.
There are some pretty powerful people who would greatly benefit from another Bush term, though, so I suppose there is some legitimate cause for concern for cheating in the Presidential race, alone.
But I suspect that these powerful people have allude decided that four years with a Democratic “useful idiot” President, given the problems that will occur with bills for Iraq coming due, the withdrawal from Iraq that is will happen, not because of “conditions on the ground” but rather because our military just cannot sustain it, etc. Etc.
They would love to shift blame for all this from the Repubs to the Democrats.
August 18, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
This appears to be about media expenditures. Obama, according to reports, has been overwhelmingly outspending McCain on the ground on local infrastructure.
August 18, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is kind of sad that anyone can be swayed by ads at all at this point. I mean seriously, how the hell can someone have lived through the last 8 years, and this goddamn election that has been going on forever, and still not know who they are voting for?? Seriously, people who are somehow still undecided need to pull their heads out of their asses because it isn't like these two are at all similar.
Shit, just ask yourself, are you happy with the direction the country has gone in in the last 8 years? Do you want 4-8 more years of it? If yes, vote McCain. If no, vote Obama. No need for stupid ass ads. Yeah, it is simplistic, but it is also a hell of a lot more useful than the nonsense we get from the media and all these ads about Britney Spears.
August 18, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
It happened in 04. It's the 80% of the american electorate that doesn't really pay attention. It's truly sad and pathetic.
August 18, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No one believes McCain is Bush.
No one knows who Obama really is.
Simple but not simplistic.
August 18, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
That makes you...a nobody?
August 18, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's certainly an authority on "simple."
August 18, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate the compliment.
Simple = very good (see Occam's razor)
Simplistic = no so much.
August 18, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that you have somewhat misunderstood that particular axiom.
August 18, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must be related to "the World's Foremost Authority".
August 18, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh yeah, the jerk store called, and they're running out of you!
BOOOM!
August 18, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, McCain is not Bush. He is worse: a Bush wannabe who got his clock cleaned in 2000 and then decided to stop fighting and join the enemy. To get rich and, if the MSM has anything to say about it, become president. McCain was once an honorable man and I supported him then. Now, he is threatening the health of this nation. This country needs a serious slap in the head.
August 18, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now that some of these numbers have sunk in, isn't it a bit of a concern to the McCain folks that their campaign outspent Obama by as much as a million dollars and McCain's not crushing him?
Hmmmmm. I would suggest that this means that McCain has a problem with voters.
Of any gender, race, religious, economic class or educational level.
August 18, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Depends on how you look at it. Not long ago people expected the Republican candidate to be way behind, a sure loser, considering all the Bush baggage.
They're even. A dead heat. Obama's support is flat. McCain's has grown.
Depends on how you look at it.
August 18, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Depends on how you look at it."
Sure, it depends whether your point of view is from the ass of a Hillary dead-ender - not exactly the most trustworthy of viewpoints.
August 18, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
fogu2,
I find it amazing that a young black guy, with not much experience, never in the military, unknown until about 18 months ago, is actually leading the experienced, war hero, straight talker John McCain in many polls. Kinda upside down, isn't it?
A poll taken two years ago on who you would vote for for President; McCain or Obama, probably would have been; McCain 96.8% Obama 3% .2 undecided.
August 18, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. It is amazing that he has gotten this far. What's your point?
Not sure he's leading though. Let's wait and see.
August 18, 2008 7:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I agree. It is amazing that he has gotten this far. What's your point?"
..that you are a drooling lunatic. Try to keep up.
August 18, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
fogu2 asks"
heh, that is the point! Now, are you willfully not seeing it, or are you blind to it?
August 19, 2008 8:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
His point is that you ain't seen nothin' yet.
If you are amazed now, prepare to be astounded in November.
August 19, 2008 5:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that Obama is spending A LOT of the money NOT on advertisement but on groundgame.
Not on this list is Florida. Obama has spent $5 million or more in advertisement in Florida while McCain has spent NOTHING.
August 18, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ads are fine but where is McCain's ground organization? Where, for that matter, is the RNC's?
August 18, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're right. Obama's bread and butter has been the ground game. He loves the dull nuts and bolts of community organizing. It's in his blood. And he spent the seven months of this year getting his machinery in working order battling Hillary. Should be enough to add a percent or two to his totals in tight races. I think. (Gulp)
August 18, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't this how Clinton put away Dole in 1996? Glad to see McCain can do no better than a tie, but it's still worrisome.
August 18, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dontcha just hate it when you think of a better comeback three minutes after you click "send?"
August 18, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crap. That was directed at Fogu, upthread.
But, on another topic, where are all the panicmongers? Did they pass out from exhaustion after their morning-long hissy fit?
August 18, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
You ain't lyin'. The lines for the fainting couch must have been miles long.
In the spirit of the Olympics, I think a new world record in hand-wringing was set this morning.
August 18, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
All right. This is not a sprint race, this is a marathon. And this one is only starting...
It's not just speed, it's resistance and discipline.
August 18, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm getting a really clean screen....very funny.
August 18, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's okay. I'll give you another shot.
Go!
August 18, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I clean my screen.....very funny.
August 18, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
But, on another topic, where are all the panicmongers?
Probably sick of the bong-smoking don't-worry-be-happy Pollyannas.
August 18, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tell me about it!
August 18, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm assuming that the spending that is being reported here is advertising spending. But what about the ground game?
Where is Obama spending on voter registration and organization to get out the vote? If that is building right now, then a spurt of advertising in October will swamp McCain's efforts, but since the new voters are not the most likely voters the poll models are looking for, that effort will not show up much until election day.
Just a thought.
August 18, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ground game will kick in in the fall. Right now Obama is building infrastructure. I know his people are all over western Missouri organizing like crazy.
August 18, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also very, very busy in St. Louis.
August 18, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! What he said... verbatim.
August 18, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in the KS/MO border area, and McCain is absolutely flooding the TV with his ads. Probably a 5-6:1 McCain:Obama ratio. It's stunning that he can keep running these many, with the cost of so many ads.
August 18, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's 'use it or lose it/ time for McCain.
He's gotta burn that money on ads, because he can't use a dime of it in the general.
August 18, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't count out McCain on the ground game basis. The targeted mailing lists get better over time as people confirm what is important to them and the recipients accept your mailings as accurate.
Plus, the conservatives will continue working to have their supporting organizations include their mesage in their communications to members.
For example WalMart telling its employess how to vote and churches spreading doubt about Obama.
August 18, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's fairly obvious that Obama ought to cut out the ad spending in Georgia. Demographics-wise, it's where Virginia was about a decade ago. No way is a Democrat winning there this year.
Wisconsin is the other side of the coin: unnecessarily defensive. Cut the ads there, and let McCain spend his heart out. He's not flipping it.
Other than that, I'm not so uncomfortable with Obama spending wider but shallower. But post-conventions, he needs to start keeping it simpler, concentrating his (presumed) financial advantage. MI, IA, NM, CO, OH. Maybe VA, and NH if it closes up. That's it, unless something changes drastically to make one or more of these states look out of reach (in either a good or bad sense). He should blanket those 5-7 states and keep himself within the MoE so that his ground game can bring him home.
August 18, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also possible is that Obama's strategy in the battleground states is to focus ground operations with his best people. I know there have been ground canvasses going on for weeks in St. Louis with the focus on voter registration.
I also found out second-hand that Obama offices are opening in our out-state areas (small town and rural) and are being BIG interest draws since Dem campaign offices haven't been in these areas in recent memory.
August 18, 2008 7:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its not always about the win in a given state. Even if Obama's chances of winning Georgia are low, he may eventually force McCain to spend money playing D there after the spending limits have kicked in on him and/or help down-ticket races.
August 18, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
how many times does the fifty state strategy have to be repeated and explained before people start to get it???
spending in georgia isn't about trying to flip it. obama's not spending in the states he's spending in because he thinks he can win them all. he's spending in the states to make them more competitive. this is both a long term strategy about building the democrats' brand and a strategy to force the republicans and mccain to spend more $ in places they'd rather not have to. and let's not forget how this impacts down ticket races.
August 18, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Person-to-person contact is much more important than TV advertising, and in that area Obama is crushing McCain in terms of offices and volunteers.
Volunteers are registering massive numbers of voters and talking to undecided voters every single day. But more help is always needed. If each Obama supporter would spend ONE hour making phone calls, that would be, like, a bazillion calls. And even if it takes 20 calls to find one persuadable voter, it's time well spent.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/
August 18, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign reluctance to spend mass amounts of advertising money is a classic political move. Drain your opponents resources then go in for the gusto. Smart move!!!
August 18, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama campaign reluctance to spend mass amounts of advertising money is a classic political move. Drain your opponents resources then go for the gusto. Smart move!!!
August 18, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ooo...is that a thrill I feel going up my leg?
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashom.htm
August 18, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Ooo...is that a thrill I feel going up my leg?"
..that's the crack talking.
August 18, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, fogu2 is Offensivetoyou.
heh heh heh
August 18, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt McCain will be spending money outside the traditional battle ground states. He does not have the money over the long run to do that. He will sit in the states he currently is and hope that Obama does not make a big enough inroad to matter.
August 18, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This just shows you how good McCain is at getting free MSM coverage, because I would have thought the difference was much greater.
When is McCain officially locked into the public financing? Can he still opt-out since he hasn't collected any of the money yet?
August 18, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
So how much is the RNC spending to support McCain? And will that increase as he gets locked under the public spending cap?
August 18, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's an error in the article.
Missouri is listed twice, meaning there are only TEN states. It's nice to know the numbers match up each time, though.Also, it doesn't seem like North Dakota should be included in that list either (as a non-traditional battle ground and a state where McCain is being outspent). NINE states.
August 18, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
No kidding, statecounter. I keep waiting for TPM to fix it, but I guess 11 sounds better than 10 or 9.
Uh, Greg: Missouri IS ONE STATE!
August 18, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
He is counting Missouri and Mizohhra.
August 18, 2008 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama is waiting until right after the convention to fully release the hounds. Remember, Obama will have more money at his disposal than McCain (he'll be limited to public $$$ once the convention happens). Obama should have $100 million - $150 million at his disposal plus all the money he raised BEFORE the convention.
August 18, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did McCain lift POW story from Russian novelist? Some think so?
http://www.topix.net/news/2008-presidential-election/2008/08/did-mccain-lift-pow-story-from-russian-novelist
August 18, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've been trying to remember -- how DID Clinton put away Dole in 1996? Was there a lot of negative advertising? A lot of doddering-old-man stuff? Or what? This election reminds me of that one in a lot of ways, so I'm trying to remember what was the winning game plan.
August 18, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dole fell off the stage at a campaign stop, referred to the LA Dodgers as the Brooklyn Dodgers. Clinton sort of cruised through, relying on his record and letting Dole make an ass of himself. Life was simpler then. . .
August 18, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although, if Obama's the new Jimmy Carter/George McGovern/Michael Dukakis, then I kind of like McCain as the new Dole.
August 18, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wikipedia has a decent summary. I don't remember any great amount of negative advertising on either side. The late-night comedians made a lot of jokes about Dole's age, and Dole helped that issue along by managing to fall off of a stage at a campaign event, by referring to the LA Dodgers as the Brooklyn Dodgers (the Dodgers left Brooklyn before the 1958 season), and with his odd habit of referring to himself in the third person.
Except for the age issue and the fact that Bob Dole was also a decorated veteran (badly wounded in WWII), I don't see this election as comparable to that one at all. Clinton was an incumbent president with all the built-in advantages of incumbency, he had no significant primary challenge, which makes his situation the exact opposite of Obama's, and Dole didn't have the slimy Karl Rove acolytes running his campaign.
Clinton had a comfortable lead in the polling from the start.
The Clinton campaign did manage, though, to tie Dole to Newt Gingrich in the aftermath of the budget standoff that shut down major portions of the government for about 3 weeks at the end of 1995, a tactic that backfired badly on the Republicans, and especially on Gingrich.
I guess if that election has any lessons about the present one, it is this: Even with the advantages of incumbency, uncontested primary, and a lead in the polls, the Clinton campaign still worked to frame the narrative about their opponent and to tie him to the most unpopular politician in his party. With none of the advantages that Clinton enjoyed in 1996, Obama needs to work even harder to do the same thing to McCain. And he shouldn't wait until the convention is over to do that; you can be sure the McCain will have a slew of negative ads to release at that point to try to dampen any "bounce" that Obama might enjoy from the convention aftermath.
August 18, 2008 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess if that election has any lessons about the present one, it is this: Even with the advantages of incumbency, uncontested primary, and a lead in the polls, the Clinton campaign still worked to frame the narrative about their opponent and to tie him to the most unpopular politician in his party. With none of the advantages that Clinton enjoyed in 1996, Obama needs to work even harder to do the same thing to McCain. And he shouldn't wait until the convention is over to do that; you can be sure the McCain will have a slew of negative ads to release at that point to try to dampen any "bounce" that Obama might enjoy from the convention aftermath.
What are you, a panicmonger?
Anyway, quoted for great truth.
August 18, 2008 8:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Superb analysis.
August 18, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
A better example was Bush I versus Clinton in 1992. Clinton was behind big time because he was the new inexperienced kid on the block. Obama already has a build in party affiliation lead, once people become more familiar with Obama during and after the DNC his lead will still be tight but stead. Also by this time in 2004 Kerry was already behind Bush.
August 19, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is advertising in Alaska during the Olympics programming on NBC.
August 18, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
those are national ad buys. same as obama's ads during the olympics.
August 18, 2008 8:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing that is missing in that analysis or at least not highlighted, is that Obama isn't necessarily spending less in those battleground states but employing different strategies. He is spending quite a bit of time, money and energy on increasing voter registration. As Kos points out in his present front-page post(http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/18/12328/9349/757/569782), in Miami-Dade area, "Of 85,532 new registered voters in the south Florida county, 56,175 were Democrats, only 9,313 were Republican. That is, 66 percent of new registration were Democratic, only 11 percent were Republican (the rest were third party and "no party affiliation")."
It is my sense that at this time of the race focusing on the massive registration drive all around the country, including battleground states, is money better spent than keeping pace with McCain on ad money in those battleground states.
August 18, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has just come off his vacation. I have noticed a real up tick in his campaign's activity.
August 18, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Advert dollars are money much less well spent than on field ops. As I understand it, McCain isn't spending diddly on grassroots field organizations and Obama is investing heavily in them. Ads are almost a waste of money comparatively as are yard signs and stickers.
A good solid ground game like Obama ran through the primaries (and by all accounts, he's going much larger for the general) will more than make up more than a few polling percentage points when it comes to election day gotv.
August 18, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just to add so I make my point clear, unless you are counting how much the campaigns have been spending total in those states in field operations and advertising, just the ad dollars alone mean nada.
A gazillion ads don't mean squat compared to teams of people knocking on doors, registering voters, and building targeted voter rolls, pushing early voting and election day gotv. Obama could be spending half of what McCain is on ads and still slaughter him on election day.
August 18, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your avatar is freaking me out! My eyes! My eyes!
August 18, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right back at ya.
August 21, 2008 12:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
This sort of reminds me of Obama spending enormous amounts of money in Pennsylvania but not really closing the deal.
August 18, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's some mighty fine reasoning imo.
August 18, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, I thought that Barack Obama is the "biggest celebrity in the world," known to all, everywhere. Hell, the last John McCain ad I saw told me that Barack Obama is so safe, well known, and acceptable that even pretty white girls from the suburbs love him. And in the ad before that, I was told that all the applause that Obama gets from his millions of adoring, trusting fans must have "gone to his head."
August 18, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crap, I was trying to reply to fogu2's thread:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/ad_buyer_mccain_outspending_ob.php#comment-3026965
Oh well, my mistake.
Feel free to come argue down here if it's not too much trouble, fogu2. ;)
August 18, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
At your service. May i help you? Fire away!
August 18, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reporting for duty. May I be of assistance? Fire away!
August 18, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well that explains why he has done nothing but go backwards in those states for 2 months.
August 18, 2008 7:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know it takes lots of people to set up a successful campaign . . . I know these people have to be paid . . . but gads I am so tired of candidates buying their seats!
When are we going to pass laws that each candidate can spend X dollars and not a nickle more during a political race.
That would allow many well qualified individuals to run for office on an even playing field.
When I think what all of this money being spent could do for healthcare, lowering college tutions, upgrading badly needed infrastructure, enery research, etc. it truly makes me ill!
August 18, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
well, considering that when you say 'pass a law' you mean 'amend the constitution' given the sup ct's position on $$$ and freedom of speech, i'd say the short answer is: no time soon.
August 18, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I heard Obama say that simply stating the obvious isn't enough for this campaign; that everyone is a lot more cynical and, in his words, willing to "burn both houses down" just for the fun of it; that eight years of the worst, most devastating presidency in the history of the US isn't enough.
If this is the case, and I kinda think that it is to a large degree, then he needs to show a side to himself that he hasn't shown yet.
He's too damn perfect and as much as we admire him for it, there are a lot of people who resent him for it too.
If he wants the average Dick and Jane regardless of color or age or gender to listen and then vote for him he needs to be loose his cool, get down and dirty, get mad, get real.
It's not enough to "get to know" the real Barack. He needs to show his passion and his guts. If people are on the fence and they think that HE thinks he can just waltz into the white house they'll vote against him out of spite no matter what the consequences to their own lives.
They are considering McCain because he is imperfect, bumbling and crude but he is also a fighter.
They identify with him.
It is difficult to identify with perfection.
Obama's campaign machine too is near perfect but it is too controlled. Too calculated.
Clinton showed her tears. Obama needs to make a fool of himself and show his humility.
How else can McScmuck just shrug off his gaffe-reflex by saying that he's "just joking" and get away with it?
August 18, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
All we know at this point is that MSM lets McCain "get away with it". Now, the elusive American voter is a whole different story and we'll have to wait until November to see how that plays out.
August 18, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree with this, and, in fact, the "different kind of politics" stuff is the least interesting thing about Obama's campaign. I'm interested in liberal policies, not gentlemanly conduct on the campaign trail.
To a Clinton supporter, that probably sounds hypocritical, because we Obama folks griped about Clinton's nasty attacks. But that was Democrat vs. Democrat. A little feistiness is acceptable in such a case, but her campaign went way over the line against someone who mostly agreed with her policies, and pretty much explains why she has never been on Obama's VP short-list. She could've been; but after the "shame on you Baracks" and "As far as I knows" it's out of the question. It's called burning bridges. When you declare, "All in", and lose, well . . . you lose.
But now we're talking about Republicans. Screw "elevated discourse"; Americans thinks that's wimpy. If you want it bad enough, you gotta bare fangs.
To wit, I'd like to see ads about McCain's lobbyist buddies on his campaign, receiving about $700,000 from the country of Georgia. Perhaps Obama's ad can say, "I'm more interested in the STATE of Georgia" . . . and then mention a few bytes of his economic plan.
Every ad should be attack-ad. Squash the bug.
August 18, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
My quick math of the states, shows an $8 million spending advantage for McCain - which if consistent, will probably be at least $12 million by the end of the Dem Convention. And shortly thereafter the direct McCAin spending will be limited (but there's the RNC to consider also). Now, Obama is hording a lot of money, and I anticipate that he'll get in September, if not in August, a record breaking amount. The Ad blitz will take place over the final 8 weeks, and can build on the Convention. Let's hope that the damage hasn't been done by then.
August 18, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's hope that the damage hasn't been done by then.
That, indeed, is the risk.
August 18, 2008 8:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, it's political history (at least recent) that a good portion of the "uncommitteds" make up their mind in the last 15 days.
August 18, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
They say they made up their minds in the last 15 days to appear to have carefully considered both options.
August 18, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Missouri is listed twice.
August 18, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
and what about the number of offices for each campaign in those states?
August 18, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, I don't understand how you think McCain has little to show for his advertising blitz. Obama formerly led in MO, CO, NV, MT, OH, and VA, and now trails in all of them, rather substantially in the case of MO. I'm all for the ground game and I'm doing my part, but it still worries me.
August 18, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few points which may even be relevant.
McCain is just spending in N VA which means he is advertising for the national politcal reporters as he has little chance up here. Obama is going statewide and is focusing on the areas where he has a very good chance of winning plus areas where he is weak--in the weak areas he must cut down the McCain margin and his TV reflects that. Note the upcoming event in South Central VA. This is also coordinated with his grass roots efforts. The Shenandoah Valley (a bit more so than South Central VA) is key for Republcians--they must get a very large margin there to carry VA. Obama is adverstising there without any opposition (other than what seeps over from DC) PLUS he is investing resources in voter reg and community organizing. If Obama gets 40% in the Valley, he probably carries VA; every point above that improves the odds. McCain is acting as if he is conceding VA--at least to date--and he has very little grass roots plus the VA Republican Party is in a nasty, internal civil war (and it isn't very civil).
In NC, where Obama's TV AND grass roots are unanswered by McCain, he is setting the stage for a win. He is setting up the metropolitan areas for very large margins and working the rural areas for whatever he can get. Now consider this: in the NC primary, Obama carried the counties which include Ft. Bragg and Camp Lejuene--remember the study of military contributions just released? Dole and McCrory (Republican candidates for US Senator and Governor, respectively) are petrified of getting wiped out by what appears to be an Obama landslide in metropolitan NC. (Durham County, for example, appears to be on target to give Obama a majority of 80,000 plus with all the organization and voter registration going on there.) The Helms-ites do not like either, but the old Helms staff running the McCain campaign (Charlie Black & co,) will deliver some of them. At some point, both Dole and McCrory will be forced to cut McCain in metropolitan NC to have a chance. Another intra-state-party civil war appears inevitable.
I agree that Georgia does not look good, but there are some interesting factors there--in addition to a large unregistered African-American voting potential (which is being registered more and more by the day), there is also a substantial Hispanic voting block as well as a good number of unregistered Hispanic US citizens. Military families may not be as solid for McCain as some think--remember that more than 30% of the Army is either African-American or Hispanic and white families are not thrilled about the extended tours and other conditions either.
A final point: one of the reasons Obama will be nominated next week is because of the supurb job his folks did on financial management. At the first of this year after raising close to $100 million, Clinton was essentially broke but Obama had so much "banked," he could have run a full tilt campaign through the end of February without raising another cent PLUS he had all his grass roots in place and more on the way. McCain has no grass roots because he was almost bankrupted last summer and never put together the resources to invest in them. He frittered away three months when he could have set something up. As a commenter or two noted above, the RNC GOTV machine is non-existant and McCain is dependant upon what exists in state parties. Given Obama's brilliant campaign fiaancial manangement thus far, I do not question his resource allocations. It is the best Democratic campaign financial management I have seen since Steve Smith ran campaigns for his three brothers-in-law---and may have surpassed Smith.
August 18, 2008 8:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
SCFWallace,
Obama may lose Georgia (USA) Presidential race BUT win the down ticket Senate race. If that happens then we are are possibly looking at 57-43 or even 60-40 DEM to REP in the Senate.
If Obama can manage to avoid snatching defeat from the jaws o' victory . . . The political landscape is going to look WAY different.
August 18, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
in the words of the immortal Ed McMann, "You, Sir, Are Correct!".
August 18, 2008 10:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, it may "look WAY different"...but it won't work WAY different.
Just ask Pelosi and Reid. Out titans of political cowardess.
August 19, 2008 3:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't I read a poll somewhere that said people are getting tired of hearing about Barack? Makes sense, then, to push money into ground organization and give the airwaves a rest.
I will settle for being close at this point. Who's gonna have the kick in the final stretch?
August 18, 2008 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
If McCain and Obama aren't getting tangible results from the states in which they are spending lots of money on advertising, then maybe we should conclude that advertising isn't all that effective. I think this election is going to be about voter turnout, and Obama is going to swamp McCain in that department.
August 18, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's not advertising in FL? I'm at my folks' place in North Palm Beach, and seeing all plenty of McCain ads on the Olympics: NBC, not CNBC or MSNBC. Maybe ALSO on CNBC and MSNBC, but definitely on NBC. Are they network vs. local spot? DK.
August 18, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those are part of McCain's Olympic national buy. Greg is focused on the separate state buys. McCain has not done any FL only buys while Obama has bought all FL markets and heavily.
August 18, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're drowning in McCain TV ads in Colorado. Also lots of right-wing "advocacy" type ads against Obama, Udall, and Democrats in general. Hopefully, people are tuning them out. But the polls are tightening.
August 18, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lest we all forget, Haters have already made up their minds and are looking for excuses not to vote for the 'black guy'. Undecideds will wait till election day and then will decide using the last one to two weeks of propaganda. True believers have already decided and can't be swayed.
Smart money says let McSame put out material that can come back to bite him at the proper time, while Obama puts up some resistance. And if anyone was paying attention, Obama has great timing for the most part. He has a plan and is sticking to it with only needed adjustments. Be patient, this will come to fruition soon. Hammer Time is coming!
August 18, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in Phoenix, AZ and I just saw an Obama ad on TV for the first time about 2 minutes ago. WooooHoooo! I thought the candidates had forgotten about AZ and just assumed it was going to McCain. Glad I was wrong!
August 18, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll see your Occam and raise you with Einstein's Anti-Razor: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler."
August 18, 2008 11:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er, that was for fogu2's inapplicable "occam's razor" reference way upthread.
August 18, 2008 11:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain went negative too early, before voters were that focused. It will be tough for him to go back to the well after the conventions because both candidated need new material and McCain will have shot much of his wad.
August 18, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
All McBush has done is get his base back in line which they were going to do anyway. The base just needed McBush to show he would throw out the red meat so they can build up the hatred of Obama. This is a failed strategy in the end because it will not excite the GOP base to LIKE McBush. Independents are already starting to get turned off by McBush's constant war mongering and binary thinking just like Bush.
The polls will be close going up to the election, but when people get in that voting booth and reflect on the disaster of the last 8 years Obama will still win in an EC vote landslide.
August 19, 2008 12:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with alot of your points but there are a couple things that we (dems) keep forgetting. It's not just McCain, it's the RNC and they have a lot more money in hand than the DNC. Also, the RWA have no convictions other than the ends justify the means. I live in PA and McCain ad's outnumber Obama 4or5 to 1 here. Unfortunatly, repetition makes it true in way too many peoples psyche... I would love the world to be the one Obama wants it to be, and the campaign to be about issues and each candidates qualifications and viewpoints but, McCain is succeeding to some degree with the lies and attack ads and he's not yet begun to unleash the hell hounds of teh RNC and the 527's. If Obama really wants to win, and I want him to with every fiber of my being, he's got to get in the trenches with McCain and start tearing the nasty old jerk the flip flopping, angry, mean spirited, opportunist, bush loving, Right Wing, Christian Right loving, pandering jerk for the asshole he is.
Politics is rough and being nice is a wonderful ideal and I hope we can get back there some day, but for now, The RWA know they can win through repetition of lies and charachter assisination...
August 19, 2008 1:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is signing up a lot of voters here in Georgia. My mother is on the front lines in a VERY red county (Hall County - one of the reddest and most despicable counties in the state.) They're going after everyone, including the HUGE Latino community there.
So, Hall County has a good chance of turning purplish, which is amazing.
Also, don't forget that Georgia is one of the few states where Bob Barr will get a significant vote. Figure he gets a nice Nader-ish 3-5% - if that happens, Obama has a great shot here.
Put that in your pipes repugs!
August 19, 2008 1:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let Nader Debate.
Obama must've gotten an acute case of Fraidy Pants since May 4, when he told Russert the Hut that he'd debate anyone.
Kerry's supposed gaffes were simply nuance; Obama's are bonafide flip flops.
August 19, 2008 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kudos to tpm staff for the following compliment:
"Let me start here. Talking Points Memo is, hands down, as good as it gets in political blogging/reporting. They are the gold standard."
The context is a disagreement with Greg's analysis on McCain outspending Obama in battleground states, found here at the blog FiveThirtyEight.
August 19, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink