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McCain Outspending Obama By Hundreds Of Thousands In Many Core Battleground States

The McCain campaign has outspent the Obama camp by hundreds of thousands of dollars, and in some cases by as much as a million dollars or more, in virtually all of the dozen battleground states where both campaigns are up on the air, according to a firm that tracks national advertising.

Evan Tracey, the chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, confirmed to us in response to our questions that McCain's campaign has racked up a huge ad spending advantage in what he called "traditional battleground states," the states that both campaigns are sinking cash into.

McCain is advertising heavily in 12 traditional battlegrounds; Obama is advertising in those same 12 plus roughly seven more; and McCain holds a heavy advantage in virtually all the 12 shared states.

The comparison is significant, and in one sense it lends comfort to Obama, because McCain has not been able to pull ahead in those states despite vastly outspending him in them. But the flip-side of this is that Obama has not been able to make significant enough headway in many of the seven states where Obama has the airwaves to himself.

Here's the comparison of the two camps' spending on ads up to the present in the 12 states where both are up on the air, according to Tracey:

Iowa: McCain has spent roughly $700,000 more than Obama.

Missouri: McCain has spent roughly half a million more than Obama.

Ohio: McCain has spent approximately one million more than Obama.

Pennsylvania: McCain has spent roughly a million and a half more than Obama.

Michigan: McCain has outspent Obama by about a million dollars.

New Hampshire: Spending is about even.

New Mexico: McCain has spent approximately $300,000 more, and has outspent Obama by roughly two to one.

Nevada: McCain has outspent Obama by $800,000, also roughly two to one.

Missouri: McCain has spent $500,000 more than Obama.

Virginia: Obama has spent a million more than McCain, largely because Obama is advertising statewide while McCain is only up in a small part of the north.

Wisconsin: McCain has spent roughly a half million more than Obama.

North Dakota: Obama has outspent McCain by around $170,000.

The reason for this is partly that both campaigns are spending at roughly the same rate overall, but Obama is spread thinner and is spending in more states. Tracey says that the campaigns are both spending between $1 million and $1.6 million a day overall.

Meanwhile, Obama is up on the air in all of McCain's states, but also in Indiana, Alaska, Montana, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and southern Virginia.

"There are two ways to look at this," Tracey says. On the one hand, Obama is pouring significant resources into seven states where McCain is spending nothing at all, and hasn't necessarily gained enough in those states to show for it.

But Tracey adds that the spending disparity in the core battlegrounds also bodes well for Obama in some ways. "The concern for McCain is that he's outspending Obama" in the more traditional battlegrounds at a rate "that's not going to be sustainable," he says. "But he's not building any real leads in these states."

The Obama campaign may be banking on the fact that with enough spending in non-traditional states they can eventually force the McCain campaign to broaden the number of states they're spending in, making it tougher for the McCain team to keep pace with Obama's spending advantage this fall.


Late Update: Some of you rightly note that Colorado isn't on the list even though both campaigns are advertising there. We'll bring you word on Colorado's spending disparity as soon as we get it.

Separately, it's worth pointing out that the total list where both are up is still 12, even including Colorado. That's because Virginia shouldn't really be on the list, because McCain's advertising is very limited there regionally.


Late Update: We inadvertently left Colorado and Michigan off the list of states where both are advertising; they've now both been added, above. Also, North Dakota was accidentally described as a state where Obama is advertising solo; in fact, both campaigns are up on the air there.

Finally, we initially said that there are 11 states where both are up on the air; it's in fact 12 states, not counting Virginia, which is a special case because McCain is only up in a small northern corner of the state in order to access the D.C. market. Obama is up statewide there.


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Obama is waiting till the conventions are over. Waiting for McCain to do all his primary money spending. I would expect these # to change after the conventions.

yeah because mccain cant use the money he raised now after the convention because then he would be getting the 84 million, so he has to spend that money in some fashion instead of wasting it on Britney and Paris type ads.

Warren Lied, McCain Wasn’t In The Cone of Silence

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By that time, McCain's defining and framing of Obama may have quick dried and all the money in the world will only dent the image.

If he loses this election and his ignominy will rank with Bush and McCain in the annals of American history. Seems like he's doing his best to do just that. It's almost like he's a Manchurian candidate for the Republicans.

Hi,

I think it is depressing that at this stage of the race McCain is already catching up. Hisstroical analysis show that a Dem needs to be up by alot more at this point to squeeze through. The Republican attack machine has not even started yet and Obamas responses appear in shambles. I am resigning myself to a 300+ EV win by McCain. I never thought it would be so easy.

Hisstroical analysis show that a Dem needs to be up by alot more at this point to squeeze through.

I'd like to see this "analysis"....you got a link? What in any of your "schoolin" leads you to believe that polling trends in past elections are indicative of what will happen in this one? If that's the case then I think we should just poll at the end of August and not even bother holding the election in November. Hey.....why waste the money?

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I'll bet dollars to doughnuts (where did that expression come from?) that Obama tops 325 EVs and 400 isn't out of the question.

Obama will win more than one of those traditionally red states in which he is now spending $ on TV and organizing -- good investments!

He will also do well in all of these battleground states and may sweep them!

How?
1. Momentum heading into September with the VP slection, a great Dem convention, college students heading back to campus, and a solid summer or grass roots organizing in all 50 states!
2. His money advantage will allow him to outspend McCain in TV overall. And, I expect more locally targetting TV ads like the DHL ad in Ohio.
3. Obama will out-work McCain 3 or 4 to 1. The reality is that a 72 year old candidate doesn't have the stamina to do 3 or 4 events per day; he does 1 and usually takes 2 days off per week. Obama can go 6 or 7 days per week (and will!)
4. This is a change election and Obama is the change candidate.
5. Obama is a coachable candidate who continues to get better and better.
6. Strategically speaking, Obama has been focusing his attention on orgaizing and laying the foundation for his fall campaign; he has not been worrying about national polls! I anticipate that the campaign will now focus on raising his support in all of the states listed above.

In contrast, the McCain campaign will rely on personal attacks and other Rovian strategies.

Obama is ready.

Agreed this will be a threshold election. Once voters are satisfied that Obama can serve the election will break big towards Obama.

I have read almost a dozen blogs from other sites where Independent voters said that after Saddlebake McBush scared them to death. The fact that he is a black and white, binary thinker and is obsessed with war even during a church sponsored forum was alarming to them. A few of them did not even know that McBush was staunchly anti-women's right to choose. Now they know for sure McBush would just be like Bush, self assured on every issue but wrong on every issue.

You've "resigned yourself to a McCain win"?! That is BS, I'm sorry. Go out and do something about it. There's plenty we can do between now and November 4th to keep that from happening.


Bingo - McCain has $$ to burn that he has to get rid of by the RNC campaign.

After the conventions the $$ will tilt along with our ground game and McSame is going to be cooked..

I hope Obama, while waiting for McCain to shoot his load on a primary spending spree, doesn't find himself behind, because he was asleep at the wheel. Letting all these attacks go unanswered could help McCain get traction on some of his points. Many people, myself included, have often said that a critical thing for Obama to do is maintain a war room, and never, ever, let any attack go unanswered beyond the same news cycle. Failure to do so often lets those attacks gain traction, and take on a life of their own, driven by the news media and Internet blogosphere. A signature strategy of the successful Bill Clinton White House runs was to maintain such a policy against attacks, and a failure of the Kerry and Gore runs was the failure to do so.

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Dude, tell Obama to give up on GA, he's wasting his money. McCain will win GA and Republicans pick up GA-8 and GA-12, put it in the bank!

Agreed, unfortunately. I suspect (hope) we'll see a major shift in tactics post convention. I keep telling myself these guys know what they're doing, but I am still girding myself for President Walnuts. Ugh ugh ugh.

There is a lot of logic to a 50-state campaign. True, the likelihood of Obama winning Georgia is very small. But by putting money in the state, it forces McCain to compete there, spreading out his more meager funds. Second, it will help in down-ticket races, so even if Obama loses Georgia, other Democrats might win, making a President Obama's legislative goals more likely to manifest. Third, it builds the party over the long haul. The Democrats aren't going to win back the South in a generation, but with dedicated resources, eventually we will. Obama wants to do more than win, he wants the Democratic party to be strong, unified, and sustainable, everywhere in America. So, for myself, I hope he keeps sending resources into Georgia and all the 50 states.

Funny, I heard this same sentiment from my Alabama relatives during the primary. They told me that Hillary would take Alabama by a blow out and that I could "put it in the bank." Instead of figuratively taking it to the bank, I should have literally bet them actual money (then taken that to the actual bank.)

Barack Obama is making headway in Georgia, especially in voter registration, and can possibly win outright, due to higher Democratic voter turnout than the historical average.

The fundamental error that Republicans are making is in assuming that they can win based on their existing power structure. Meanwhile, there are over 500,000 unregistered black voters in Georgia, along with many young voters, who are strongly tilted towards Obama. And, unlike McCain, Obama has a serious ground game for registering new voters.

What it comes down to is that the Republicans have nothing to offer the future of America, and nothing that appeals to the next generation of voters, who simply don't see the world in the same way as older voters. It also seems likely that Bob Barr will be a big feature in the race in Georgia, as much of a "change" vote as a protest vote against McCain.

Even amongst OIF veterans, Barack Obama is receiving donations over McCain by huge margins. That's something that Obama should aggressively point out, as it flies in the face of McCain's claims of being the candidate of choice for veterans. Obama just needs to do a better job of making the argument, which will be a lot easier later on in the race, when he starts to truely dominate with his ground game, his large speeches, and his fundraising superiority.

In large part though, it probably won't matter whether Obama wins in Georgia this time around, as he leads across the rest of the nation, and will be well-situated to make permanent inroads for Democrats in Georgia over the course of his administration.

It's in part because McCain is currently gaming the finance system, after opting in and then out of public financing for the primaries. He keeps raising money and has to spend it down before the convention, when he will be bound to the $80 million or so in federal funds. (Unfortunately, the 527s won't.)

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Yep, that's exactly what is going on.

On a side note, I just heard mcbush claim that petraeus was one of the greated military leaders in american history. What? Is this guy delusional or what. Petraeus isn't even in the top 100. Give me a break.

McCain said the same thing at Saddleback.

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The guy is totally over the top. It's ridiculous. In fact, there is an argument that petreaus screwed up when he was in iraq leading the 101st early on. Also, the "surge" really had nothing to do with the decrease in violence. What stopped the violence was the ethnic cleansing that occurred and the buying off of the militias. Now they are just waiting us out and it will explode again when we leave. Best in american history my a**.

I hate cnn, now I am listening to them push clinton as vp again for the thousandth time. I can't wait until the vp is selected and the praise for the clintons from the right wing media ceases. It really is tiresome.

I think most of us here feel the same way.

Is there any information available on what percentage of their overall funds each campaign is spending on tv advertising vs other expenses (ground organizing etc)?

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This is just advertising, it does not include money spent on the ground game. From the first lines:

"according to a firm that tracks national advertising."

At least that is the way I'm reading it.

Now smarter folk than I can tell you how wise investing heavily on the ground game is, but just advertising doesn't seem to be doing much right now and the effect of the ground game won't be fealt until November.

Or maybe I'm totally wrong.

Ask George W. Bush how smart investing in the ground game is. Its how he won Ohio and Florida in 2004. They were light years ahead that year of us in GOTV, canvassing, voter registration, and organization. They had centralized microtargeting operations and a network of field operatives.

We had some old guys down at the local union hall with a box of index cards. That used to be our "edge" and Rove turned it into our Achilles heel.

That whole operation Rove built rotted from the inside out after he left and McCain has just tossed the remains over the side. Its exactly the kind of thing that bores him, relies on technology he doesn't like or understand and its no fun.

I"ll go back further than that. The development of local GOP GOTV resources is what took Congress out of the Dem's hands after 50 some years and that was under Newt in 1994.

The Democrats relied heavily on union resources and those resources are still important to GOTV efforts in a lot of places--St Louis is one of them. The old Dem city machine still creaks around but it's really a rusty relic of its once glorious self--when the unions were a quarter of the work force and not 7% like today. Finally, though smart Democrats are organizing differently--and that's Dean and now Obama.

The GOP has real reason for concern because a new machine operation on the local level will put Democrats back into Congress for another 50 years and hopefully a Dem president for the next 30 at least.

This is just advertising -- and doesn't even include direct mail AFAICT; I'm not even sure it includes radio. Which is why this is yet another stupid, overblown headline. If these numbers justify a claim that "McCain is far outspending Obama in big states..." then they also would seem to indicate that McCain has conceded Florida. In fact FL is the one state where McCain is way ahead on the ground; they seem to be holding their fire media-wise in FL, which makes some sense given their lead there.

There's nothing here.

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This is advertising money, right?

What about campaign offices?

And secondly, McCain HAS to spend this money, or it's just circling down the drain...

The 2 million donors are going to be critical starting in September. One hundred dollars per donor for the general election would be all Obama needs--that's $200MM. $100. $50 per month. $200MM.

After giving steadily since last year. I think I can handle that. $100.

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I an waiting for Obamna to ask his 2 million donors for $100. My checkbook is ready and willing.

Damn, you need a special invitation now?

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No, I don't need a special invitation. I have been contributing every month. I just think it would be very effective if he would email all 2,000,000 contributors and tell us that the battle is now on in full and that he needs our help to blow McSame away. I think he would raise more than $200,000,000.

Expect that e-mail the day after the convention.

I sure hope this is not going to be another one of those years like the Kerry campaign, where they lose the election, with money left in the bank!

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This story explains exactly why McCain is hanging around. Notice that he hasn't broken about 45%. Instead his negative campaign is pulling Obama down, but he isn't pulling him down enough. The problem is that after August Obama will be able to outspend McCain two or three to one everywhere. As to the DNC v. the RNC, the DNC out raised the RNC last month. Expect that to continue. I suspect if McCain can he will try to figure a way out of Federal Campaign financing. I am not sure he isn't committed at this point.

McCain's negative ads haven't worked as well as he expected and although things look close in the long run he is really trailing and trailing badly.

I think that's pretty spot on.

I hope it is.

And all McCain has to show for it is a tie?

A tie, a little voter enfranchisement, and a diebold machine here and there - the next thing you know, you got a Rebpublican landslide!

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That's exactly how it's going to work.

Caging lists. Check.

Voter roll purges. Check.

E-voting with no audit trail. Check.

All pretty much already done.

The McCain attacks are about making the election close enough to steal. And so far, it's working.

As Josh notes on the front page, from a reader's email:

McCain is playing his Georgia actions as a victory in every speech, and unless unanswered, it will become common wisdom. We keep waiting for Obama to do what we were promised he'd do: take McCain down at the knees on his one point of perceived strength. It is so much harder to do this after the narrative continues to harden.

And as Frank Rich in the NYT noted this past Sunday:

So why isn't Obama romping? The obvious answer -- and both the excessively genteel Obama campaign and a too-compliant press bear responsibility for it -- is that the public doesn’t know who on earth John McCain is. The most revealing poll this month by far is the Pew Research Center survey finding that 48 percent of Americans feel they’re "hearing too much" about Obama. Pew found that only 26 percent feel that way about McCain, and that nearly 4 in 10 Americans feel they hear too little about him. It's past time for that pressing educational need to be met.

(Yes, Rich's column also scoffs at what he calls the "Obama-is-doomed" crowd. I sure hope his predictive skills match his confidence.)

If O. goes into this with anything less than a 10-point advantage, he's flirting with disaster.

Remember the Republican two-step:

1) Make the election close enough to steal, by any means necessary.

2) Proceed to steal.

So, what's your theory about how the Democrats won both houses in 2006?

Despite Rove's THE MATH?

The Democrats are well aware of the dirty vote tricks and are doing plenty to neutralize it.

I think the Republican's ability to fraudulently acquire votes is greatly exaggerated. ESPECIALLY now that many of the agencies that would pursue criminal prosecutions are controlled by Democrats (most notably in OH).

The Dems have been in power for two years now, don't you think they have been working on that feverishly to go beyond what they already fixed in 2006?

The climate for Republicans was a lot better in 2006, too.

There’s no question that there are many illegal voting schemes that could be done in this coming election and many of these potential schemes favor Repubs.

But the more relevant question is: How many of these operatives will be willing to roll the dice on the possibility of serious jail time, if caught? I suspect, not many.

Heck, not even in AK! Who would have thunk it?

If the Repubs were in charge in a lot more places maybe I’d be a little more worried.
There are some pretty powerful people who would greatly benefit from another Bush term, though, so I suppose there is some legitimate cause for concern for cheating in the Presidential race, alone.

But I suspect that these powerful people have allude decided that four years with a Democratic “useful idiot” President, given the problems that will occur with bills for Iraq coming due, the withdrawal from Iraq that is will happen, not because of “conditions on the ground” but rather because our military just cannot sustain it, etc. Etc.

They would love to shift blame for all this from the Repubs to the Democrats.

This appears to be about media expenditures. Obama, according to reports, has been overwhelmingly outspending McCain on the ground on local infrastructure.

It is kind of sad that anyone can be swayed by ads at all at this point. I mean seriously, how the hell can someone have lived through the last 8 years, and this goddamn election that has been going on forever, and still not know who they are voting for?? Seriously, people who are somehow still undecided need to pull their heads out of their asses because it isn't like these two are at all similar.

Shit, just ask yourself, are you happy with the direction the country has gone in in the last 8 years? Do you want 4-8 more years of it? If yes, vote McCain. If no, vote Obama. No need for stupid ass ads. Yeah, it is simplistic, but it is also a hell of a lot more useful than the nonsense we get from the media and all these ads about Britney Spears.

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It happened in 04. It's the 80% of the american electorate that doesn't really pay attention. It's truly sad and pathetic.

No one believes McCain is Bush.
No one knows who Obama really is.

Simple but not simplistic.

That makes you...a nobody?

He's certainly an authority on "simple."

I appreciate the compliment.
Simple = very good (see Occam's razor)
Simplistic = no so much.

I think that you have somewhat misunderstood that particular axiom.

You must be related to "the World's Foremost Authority".

Oh yeah, the jerk store called, and they're running out of you!
BOOOM!

No, McCain is not Bush. He is worse: a Bush wannabe who got his clock cleaned in 2000 and then decided to stop fighting and join the enemy. To get rich and, if the MSM has anything to say about it, become president. McCain was once an honorable man and I supported him then. Now, he is threatening the health of this nation. This country needs a serious slap in the head.

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Now that some of these numbers have sunk in, isn't it a bit of a concern to the McCain folks that their campaign outspent Obama by as much as a million dollars and McCain's not crushing him?

Hmmmmm. I would suggest that this means that McCain has a problem with voters.

Of any gender, race, religious, economic class or educational level.

Depends on how you look at it. Not long ago people expected the Republican candidate to be way behind, a sure loser, considering all the Bush baggage.

They're even. A dead heat. Obama's support is flat. McCain's has grown.

Depends on how you look at it.

"Depends on how you look at it."

Sure, it depends whether your point of view is from the ass of a Hillary dead-ender - not exactly the most trustworthy of viewpoints.

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fogu2,

I find it amazing that a young black guy, with not much experience, never in the military, unknown until about 18 months ago, is actually leading the experienced, war hero, straight talker