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Top GOP Rep: Obama's Turnout Could Sink Us In The South
A top House Republican is taking very seriously the idea that Barack Obama could alter the election map -- specifically, that Obama could spur high turnout from African-American voters and drastically change down-ticket races in the South.
"I think you'll see House members who won their last race by 60%-65% percent lose because of the turnout model that Obama brings," said Rep. Adam Putnam, chairman of the House Republican Conference, the St. Petersburg Times reports.
We've seen some early hints of a changing electoral map, with Democrats winning special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi districts where the Republicans usually got over 60%. But those races didn't involve incumbents. Is Putnam right that we'll be seeing more of this?
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Comments (27)
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!
July 9, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stash, you are the best!
(btw, I had a pre-Pete cat that looked like Stash's identical twin....)
July 9, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are so nice. Stash won't let me get any other cat, he's kind of possesive about that. I've had him for 17 years. Heh, I've had him a long time. My oldest brother gave him to me as kitten. ;)
July 9, 2008 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Is Putnam right that we'll be seeing more of this?"
No, what Putnam is doing is trying to drive up Republican turnout among racially resentful white voters by pumping the 'the blacks are sticking together' narrative.
Not that I'm cynical.
July 9, 2008 9:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to read this post and the good news! today has been one of those days where you seek and hopefully find positive and encouraging news!
July 9, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't stand Putman. A young little PUNK from Florida who is nothing but a kaka maker. That said, even a broken clock is right twice a day. Putman has 1 more opinion left that might be right!
July 9, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well that - and the fact that repulicans are disgusted with bush - and they are disgusted with the fact that McCain called his wife a Cu*t in public.
July 9, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love those Mississippi blues.
July 9, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Short answer: Yes, he is right.
July 9, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here in Texas, under Tom Delay's redistricting plan, black and brown voters were diced and spliced into districts to get the maximum number of Republicans elected. Those redistricting maps depend on low voter turnout from minorities. If they vote in unexpected numbers, we could see some unexpected outcomes.
That would be the perfect revenge, after Delay allegedly broke the law to use corporate money to fund state house races with the express purpose of achieving his redistricting dream.
July 9, 2008 8:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
baby, we saw those numbers on primary night.
There's little reason to think we won't continue to see them - And Obama has taken a very promising position with regard to immigration and we have a plurality of Hispanics in Texas.
We could do it - we could go blue.
July 9, 2008 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love it! We're alive!
after all these years they've been telling us we're goners -
WHHEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!
That's what I saw happen on primary night in Dallas Co. - the most gobsmacking record setting turnout of all time. The excitement was palpable.
I hope we kick their asses down here!
July 9, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Noooooo! Don't listen to him, Republicans! All is well! All is welllll! He's just a crazy old alarmist! Just keep talking about tax cuts for rich people and staying in Iraq forever, it's never failed you before and it will win again!
July 9, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
so it the bigot-nased "southern Strategy" fails, what else do the repuglitards have ???
nuttin
the repug;itards been relying on Nixon's racially divisive strategy for 40 years, and now kkkarl rove killed the golden goose
ooops
seriously, where does the gop turn to regroup ???
what part of the Nation has enough fools and gulls to elect a repuglitard if the south isn't buying ???
July 9, 2008 8:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to second what Tena is reporting -and M3M is also seeing here in Texas.
Some big time mover & shakers here -like Mark McKinnon even are predicting some real surprises. I will say this now loud & clear -Noriega will beat Cornyn -
Texas is in play ya'll - this is not a drill - Texas is in play ...
And in a related aside the grand jury has reconvened here in Travis County Texas- still looking into the illegal money laundering that funded the illegal gerrymandering that Tom DeLay strong armed through here-
July 9, 2008 9:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is good news. I hope we see a blue Southern tsunami in November.
July 9, 2008 9:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, Rick Noriega is running hard and strong. He was the star of the Dem Convention in Austin last month.
I don't want to jinx the magic with a brash prediction, but we are gonna do what must be done. Dallas County has shown the way.
BTW, down there next to SRV, shouldn't there be a statue of Ronnie Earle?
July 9, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
the whole country is in play
or at least all the red parts are in play
July 9, 2008 10:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think TPM has been doing the best down-ticket reporting I've seen just about anywhere, but to answer your question, it may still fall short of the amount of attention it should be getting. I think Democrat enthusiasm, and specifically southern African-American enthusiasm is going to cream Repubs this election season.
I was watching MSNBC this week, and Chris Matthews scoffed openly at the idea that Dems could get as many as 55 seats in the Senate. He may not be wrong in the end, but I think his open doubt of the idea is at least being overly generous to the GOP. We're in a good position to romp. So good, in fact, that I think the prospect should not be laughed off by anyone.
July 9, 2008 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Our local REPUB daily paper here in suburban Atlanta runs the Steve and Cokie Roberts column. They don't know why Obama would be wasting his money running ads in Colorado. They don't consider it to be a swing state or even a battleground state!! What polls have they been reading?? Dem governor, Dem Senator, and a soon to be second Dem Senator, and the Dem convention on top of it. Can't they sense the change in Colorado and the country at all?
July 10, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uh, well free patriot, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho do. But that's why it's nice to be so small that we don't matter. That way, the damage done by the breath-takingly ignorant knuckleheads who run things out here is limited to this area of the country. And we have some beautiful mountains to help soothe the sting.
July 9, 2008 11:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
What we're seeing is a concerted effort by the Republican Party to lower the bar on prospects for the upcoming election. We have to redouble our efforts for Democratic candidates and prevent any letdown based on an opinion that we have it in the bag.
July 9, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
True, we have to prevent letdowns, but I dunno about lowering the bar.
Politicians lower the bar so that anything better that the low estimate is seen as a victory for and by the media -- for the next race in the primary. The election in 2008 is it. There are no further races.
While scary predictions might encourage Republicans to vote, it might also discourage Republicans who are not so keen on McCain. I think some Republicans are honestly Staring at the Abyss -- The Skinny Black Kid Named Obama.
July 10, 2008 8:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama was giving a speech at a suburban HS about five miles from me yesterday. The local REPUB paper said today it was an inspiring speech but the same old socialist message of taxing the rich and giving to the poor. Sounds like the message from the New Testament to me that they want to have taught in the schools down here.
July 10, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is one story that actually gets the importance of Obama and the African American vote right. Black turnout was fantastic in targeted swing states in 2004; besting white turnout in some cases. There's a lot of evidence-poor common wisdom going about that Obama will excel in MO/FL/OH/PA because of increased Black turnout, but the real effect will be downticket in states that weren't targeted by national turnout operations in '04 and may or may not be targeted this time around. Tack Obama's well-funded 50-state registration drive on to that and it's a huge difference between previous election years.
July 10, 2008 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
And that's the primary reason the GOP is so intent on strategies to depress turnout among African-Americans, students, and new voters.
July 10, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
And lets not forget that electoral ticking time bomb down there in Georgia - Very popular former Congressman Bob Barr is running as the Liberterian Presidential candiate -all those Ron Paul Revolutionaries might just back Bob. Thus clearing the field for an Obama victory . This is more than ironic in many ways - Barr is part of the iMPEACH President Clinton possee, also he is a former CIA opeartive that in that context adamantly denounced Scooter's pardon ..And yes oskie oskie we should have a statue of Travis County Prosecutor Ronnie Earle down here - a tireless champion of truth , justice , and the American Way !
July 10, 2008 9:03 PM | Reply | Permalink