Ted Stevens Indictment Virtually Guarantees Dem Senate Pickup In Deep-Red Alaska
Huge, huge news out of Alaska: In a major development that all but ensures that Dems will make a major Senate seat pickup in a state that hasn't elected a Dem to Congress since 1974, incumbent GOP Senator Ted Stevens has just been indicted.
Stevens, who was indicted on seven counts of public corruption, was already trailing his Democratic opponent Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage, by a decent margin in the polls. Begich's campaign has been founded on a commitment to public ethics, and this indictment will now give him even more ammunition.
The wild card here, of course, is whether Stevens steps aside and lets a stronger Republican take his place from the big GOP bench in this deep-red state, perhaps via a write-in bid for the upcoming primary. On the other hand, he might just be stubborn enough to stick around. Even if Stevens were to drop out, Begich is a strong candidate and would have a very good shot at winning.
In short, what was already a bad map for the Senate GOP just got a whole lot worse.
Late Update: It's worth pointing out that Stevens already had several primary challengers, and any one of them could end up being the new nominee. But none of them are big names, and Begich would start out as the favorite in a general election.
FIRST!
THIS IS HUGE! Lets turn Alaska blue!
July 29, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Couldn't have happened to a better guy.
July 29, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric, that's not entirely true. It's early enough for him to resign and be replaced with a cleaner Republican. This is generally good news, but it doesn't guarantee a Dem pick-up yet until we see how it shakes out.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 29, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
To clarify, there is a GOP primary in late August. Stay tuned.
July 29, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice.
I wonder if Stevens would be so kind as to share some of his indictments with a certain Karl Rove??
Here's hoping...
July 29, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any word on his son?
July 29, 2008 1:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
As far as Ben Stevens goes -
I think the indictment of Ted is related to the case against Ben.
It's being reported that Ted is being indicted related to "false statements to investigators" - I think he lied in relation to the investigation against Ben.
Which is sad...I think Ted came to power in a Washington environment that doesn't reward Senators that play by the rules, and for as small as a state as Alaska is - Ted did a pretty good job overall with regards to appropriations. The feeling here is that he did what he had to do to advocate for Alaska as a whole.
July 29, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sean Parnell is running against Stevens for the Republican nomination, as is Gabrielle LaDoux. If I had to place my money... Parnell wins the nom and the seat in November - he's the Lt. Governor of the wildly popular Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin.
The title of this post is bullshit - Mark Begich isn't the only one running for the seat. There isn't anything guaranteeing he wins.
July 29, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Co-sign.
Eric is slightly brain-damaged.
July 29, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would go even further; this actually hurts Begich's chances. Running against a unknown Republican in Alaska will be much harder than running against a crook.
July 29, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bingo Frog Leg, hit it on the head exactly.
Alaskans are bracing for a national Democratic majority - very concerned that we'll be the whipping post for the disaster that was the Bush Administration, (even though we have little if any effect on electing any president, if we had any influence at all on Bush ANWR would be open for business today).
Believe it or not Alaskans feel that with the election of Sarah Palin that we are taking the lead in cleaning up the Republican Party.
Her predecessor, Frank Murkowski is much reviled.
July 29, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sarah Palin is also embroiled in a bit of a mess herself right now that could become interesting.
July 29, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah. My take on this is that it actually improves the Republicans' chances in Alaska. There are enough conservative voters there who didn't want to vote for a corrupt Republican, but would vote for an unknown Republican over a Democrat in a heartbeat.
July 29, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, Frog Leg - you beat me to it.
July 29, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Parnell is running in the primary against Don Young, not Stevens.
July 29, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Parnell is running for the House seat, not the Senate seat.
July 29, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops, shows how carefully I've been paying attention! (I pretty much read the voter pamphlet the night before I vote and make a list).
Sorry folks.
July 29, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republican brand in Alaska is getting a little tarnished, isn't it?
Isn't Palin having some sort of trouble?
July 29, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republican brand in Alaska is getting a little tarnished, isn't it?
Exactly. I'm more interested to track whether the tarnished brand will spill its stains on the Presidential politics and the outcome in Nov? I guess it will not hurt reminding Alaskans McCain is a Republican.
July 29, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain consistently bad mouths Alaska - with regards to opening ANWR and the ever present rhetorical fight against "earmarks" - he's not well liked or respected here. In fact, I haven't seen a single bumper sticker, campaign sign or even a news report on McCain getting Alaska in November, nor has anyone IN Alaska stepped forward to advocate for him.
Here's my overall prediction:
Parnell wins Steven's Senate seat, it remains Republican (locally Begich is thought of as utterly mediocre).
Obama wins Alaska, his rhetoric regarding the "infrastructure bank" to move earmarks into the daylight plays really really well here. The so-called pork spending provides union/bacon jobs for a lot of families in Alaska (including mine). No one here thinks they are wasteful and unnecessary - and the reason they are earmarked is because there isn't a process by which they CAN be debated and appropriated fairly in Congress.
The question asked is "What has McCain done for Alaska lately".
My answer is "McCain who?"
July 29, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Touch Wood. From your lips to God's ears. I heard Obama will campaign in Alaska? The first Dem candidate to do so since JFK?
July 29, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's already campaigning here. His campaign commercials are playing on local tv. Not word one from the McCain camp however.
July 29, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lt. Gov Parnell is running for the US House seat held by fellow corrupt GOP Don Young. Parnell is likely to defeat Young in the primary and have a good chance of beating Democrat Ethan Berkowitz in the fall. But that is not a given though....Berkowitz is a very strong candidate in the good year for DEMS in Alaska. The DSCC and DCCC in addition to Obama are spending real money in Alaska this year and the GOP brand there is severely tarnished with all the scandals including the new one involving Gov. Palin.
July 29, 2008 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, she made a big mistake with the ouster of Public Safety Comish Monegan replacing him with a guy with reprimands for sexual harrassment - who subsequently resigned. As of today the position is being held by a deputy.
I don't think this mistake will have any lasting effect. I don't think anyone associates it with "Republicans" in general - its all hers. She's trying to get the state to pay out $1200 to each man, woman and child as aid in rising energy prices - in addition to the Permanent Fund Dividend (which is being estimated at $2000+ this year, in sum, for a family of 4 thats $12,800).
July 29, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just like I said below, when this was posted in comments:
The little baby jesus really does love me!
July 29, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stewart is going to have a ball with this one tonight, I expect. Jon relishes no story more than Ted Stevens...I guess we can see him calling Stevens...lol.
July 29, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well that priceless damn video of Stevens having a fit and falling in it on the floor of Congress should get replay - I hope. The one where he's yelling "No!".
See this just adds to my overall deep intuition that the real situation with this election is being carefully altered in the media - I honestly think the GOP is dead in the water.
July 29, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Stewart calls on Stevens everytime there is bad news. This sure seems like bad news for Teddy..LOL.
July 29, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like Ted Stevens is fit to have his toobz tied. Look for a big spike in packet loss.
July 29, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Haha, bye bye.
July 29, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
go to ketchikandailynews.com...their poll shows that third-party Candidate Bob Bird is in the running for this seat as well--as of yesterday it read Stevens 33%, Begich 30%, Bird 29%.
It's possible that traditionally conservative Alaska flocks to Bird (pun intended), an independent who would be less prone to corruption. Remember that Begich is being investigated too...
July 29, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh...You made me waste my time on a stupid internet poll! Do you not understand the difference between a scientific and unscientific poll? How many times have you voted? Don't anyone else go and check it out.
July 29, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee, Bob, Welcome to the Intertubes!
Just a bit of advice: if you want to go onto a website and anonymously shill for your own campaign, it's best to post a few messages that have no mention of your Senate race beforehand. That way, when people click on your profile they won't immediately discover that this was the first and only thing that you've ever posted here.
July 29, 2008 3:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was already counting on an Alaska pickup. The ones I'm really keeping my eye on are Minnesota, NC, and Maine. And dare I even say it...Kentucky.
I think we'll all rue the day when we don't have Senator Tubes to kick around any longer.
July 29, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody ever sends Texas any love. Don't y'all want to get rid of John "Bush's Buffoon" Cornyn?
July 29, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Coryn is horrible but he has a boatload of money. Texas is still to red even with Bush at record low approval.
July 29, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm listening to the indictment being read on national news... the thing that sticks out to me is the 'gifts received of amount over $250k, for the house remodel'
I've seen the house they are talking about, $250k in value of upgrades is WAY overreaching - its a very modest house even post remodel.
July 29, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any nail in the coffin is a victory, and this is no small one. But, don't be too overjoyed.
Senator Stevens' longtime friend and ally from across the aisle is Senator Inouye of Hawaii, quite possibly the most corrupt sitting member of the Senate, though one seldom hears anything about him. And that's saying something, given the historic conduct of Senators such as Sessions of Alabama and Vitter of Louisiana.
Until Senator Inouye is held to account, the process of cleansing the US Senate has a very long way to go.
July 29, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The indictment does not allege a quid pro quo"
Basically Ted got favors, but didn't return them.
July 29, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://dwb.adn.com/news/politics/fbi/story/9179115p-9095789c.html
Anchorage Daily News story on the subject, along with pictures of the house if anyone is interested.
July 29, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Overreaching by whom?
July 29, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't know why I've become cynical about the Department of Justice, but I can't help suspecting that this indictment would not have gone through if it had not been concluded on high that it gives the Rs a better chance of holding Alaska (but forcing Stevens to step aside).
July 29, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Investigators. Claiming that he received a gift of $250k. I'd estimate half that, and I'm a construction estimator by trade.
Also, wouldn't he have had to sell the home in order to actually profit from such a transaction? I've heard nothing that he even intended to sell, ever.
As far as I can tell all he did was increase its tax value, and therefore pay more property taxes to Mayor Begich - Girdwood is part of the Municipality of Anchorage.
July 29, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The governor of CT landed in jail for receiving gifts in the form of remodeling work. And he didn't have to sell any property to get nailed for it.
And Stevens wouldn't be paying taxes to Mayor Begich. That's an odd statement to make.
July 29, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
He will be paying increased property taxes to the Municipality of Anchorage, of which Begich is the Mayor.
I don't find it an odd statement - Begich benefits by the expanded revenue - its always easier to please a constituency when you have money to spend on them. Begich never bothered to run for Mayor until real estate values recovered in Anchorage, tis easy to do well when your coffers runneth over.
Just my view, I don't claim to have logic behind it. Lots of problems with property taxes in Anchorage, its the ONLY source of tax revenue off the general public. Some of the largest property tax payments don't receive the same services as much lower ones. No public bus service for much of the areas that pay some of the highest taxes to mention one.
July 29, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
This news will probably take awhile to get to Sen. Stevens. The internet is a little slow in his parts. It's kind of like a dump truck. Or is it like a series of tubes? I forget.
July 29, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Politics and CORRUPTION seem to go hand in hand!
*SIGH* OsiSpeaks.com
July 29, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with Subliminability completely.
This indictment seems pretty weak to me (even though I've never heard of a U.S. Attorney in Alaska bringing a case that wasn't locked up).
There are no allegations of influence peddling, just favor received and not returned.
Lying in the course of an investigation smacks of the Valerie Plame investigation where no one was actually held accountable.
Me thinks Ted retires, survives the trial and anyone but Begich takes the seat.
July 29, 2008 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biased against Begich much?
July 29, 2008 2:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. I'm not a fan, and I've lived in anchorage for 20 years in good times and bad. I've never particularly liked any Anchorage Mayor to be fair - even the one I worked for.
Anchorage is quite a large city (area wise) and I don't think every district is treated equally.
July 29, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any odds on Stevens making Bush's January 2009 pardon list?
That list will be Bush's last outrage.
July 29, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
The polar bears are dancing, as well as the wild slamon and the caribou.
July 29, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Campaign Diaries actually explains that this might be a slight overstatement. Begich has a great chance here, but depending on what happens in the next 4 weeks the race could go back to being a toss-up, far from a "guaranteed pick-up."
July 29, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I know that I will be in the minority on this one, but I think this indictment is very wrong and very suspicious. A couple of points.
1. He was in big trouble in the latest polls that came out and surprise, surprise down comes an indictment. The odds were that this seat was a loss already and then we see an indictment.
2. The king's administration handed down indictments and "launched" criminal investigations in violation of doj policy right before elections. These were blatant violations and surprise, surprise they were always against dems in the past. Gee, right before when the king is getting out of office they launch ONE in violation of policy on their own against a bozo of a republican. Can you say CYA.
3. The doj shouldn't be "launching" investigations or issuing indictments 4 months before a major election. That's in violation of policy and can be used for ulterior purposes, as we saw in the last two midterms and the 04 election.
I smell bs all over this one. It may be valid, but the timing reaks of more rovian manipulation. Stevens was going to lose, so why not indict after November? Something smells majorly fishy about this. Now everyone will be running around saying "see they go after republicans also." Bull freaking sh*t.
July 29, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink