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Polls Show Close Races In North And South Carolina
A new set of polls from the Carolinas show that both of these states could be close this Fall, despite the fact that neither has voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976.
The new North Carolina poll from SurveyUSA: McCain 50%, Obama 45%, with a ±3.8% margin of error.
And here's Public Policy Polling's (D) survey of the much more conservative South Carolina: McCain 45%, Obama 39%, and Bob Barr 5%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. The X-factor here is Barr, as much of his vote would presumably have gone to McCain in a two-way race.
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Holy freaking cow! Mcbush might just win a handful of states. Look out obama ground game. It is looking sweet!
July 15, 2008 11:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think he'll win the Carolinas, but he will force McCain to spend some serious cash in places that were supposed to be in the bag. I mean come on, since when has a Rethug had to spend cash in South Carolina?
July 16, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama could win NC -- but not SC. A comfortable Obama victory would include winning NC. Also, SUSA, which predicted Obama would win the Tarheel State by five over Hillary Clinton, was way off the mark in the NC primary. Obviously, the general is different.
Still, it would be incredibly redeeming if an African-American won the state that sent Jesse Helms -- who unlike Strom Thurmond never apologized for his segregation advocacy -- to the Senate all those years.
July 16, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is already behind and people are just beginning to find out about his being an inexperienced flip flopping empty suit. He will lose both Carolinas by double digits if the supers do not change their minds and switch to Hillary. Obama is proving to be an exceptionally weak candidate.
July 15, 2008 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. bill, put the computer away. Go screw with an intern and stop messing up this election.
July 15, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama is already behind and people are just beginning to find out about his being an inexperienced flip flopping empty suit."
Shut the fuck up asshole, don't you have PUMA meeting to attend? Calling someone who was president of the Harvard Law Review and taught Constitutional Law and International Politics an "empty suit" makes YOU look like a drooling lunatic.
July 16, 2008 1:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget he was a community organizer too...well he was...
July 16, 2008 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're forgetting that McCain still is a community organizer. There are plenty of communities that are organizing against the very thought of him as President. Just imagine what would happen if he actually campaigned in these places!
July 16, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dream on turncoat, dream on.
July 15, 2008 11:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you wander away from the group? The Chief and the rest of the guys are getting ice cream, and everyone is taking their meds, why don't you join them?
July 16, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I predict that McCain will with Utah, Oklahoma, AND Alabama. Probably Idaho and Wyoming too.
The rest are in play!
July 15, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd add west virginia and kentucky, but then the rest are in play, big time. Just watch out what happens after the first presidential debate. I wonder if mcbush will realize by then that czechoslovakia ceased to exist a long time ago. I doubt it.
July 15, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am giving you my official prediction:
McCain will win Georgia...and Rick Goddard will unseat the BlueDog Jim Marshal (I wish I could do more but these are the only places I'm allowed to vote).
July 16, 2008 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Add Arkansas, West V., Kentucky, and Kansas to your "McCain without a doubt" column. I think McCain has a better shot of losing Idaho than Kentucky or any of these other states.
July 16, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Georgia and Texas are out of reach for Obama too. I really think it will shake out a lot closer to the 2004 map. Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio will decide it.
July 16, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
It bodes very well for Obama in November if we are even talking about Georgia. Hardly fits the definition of a "swing state".....If McLame has to spend time and money there, of all places, things are looking good.
July 16, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
It won't be that close. Florida, for one, is going Obama, due to heavy, heavy Democratic registration there.
July 17, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Zogby had another poll for
South Carolina
42% Obama
41% McBushSame
6% Barr
1% Nader
6% Undecided
North Carolina
Obama: 47%
McBushSame: 38%
Barr: 4%
Nader 1%
Undecided: 6%
So Senator Obama is doing very well. It is fair to assume that these states are in play...
July 15, 2008 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
McsameBush? LOL. Thats hilarious seeing that written like that. i like it though
July 16, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the Rasmussen Reports analysis page:
McCain fares better against Obama than he does against two other prominent Democrats. New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads McCain by eight points, 50% to 42%. Former Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000, leads McCain 50% to 43%. There are many unconfirmed reports based on phone banking efforts to reach out to Super D’s that 8 previously Obama SD’s, expressed that, given the opportunity, they would vote for Hillary at the convention. No wonder Obama wants to break with tradition and keep Hillary off the convention ballot, even though she won more popular votes than he did, and neither of them earned enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination.
July 15, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too funny, ratsmussen is the most pathetic polling organization. Total right-wing tilt and they had clinton beating obama by ten through the last primary. Totally credible, not. Keep on dreaming.
July 15, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Phone banking efforts to reach out to super Ds"
So let us in on the joke - do your posts fulfill some requirement for an MFA thesis or something?
Let me know when "Othering the Hegemon: Antiphallic Blogging and the Aesthetics of Identity Confusion" reaches the pages of Social Text, can't wait to read it, y'know.
July 16, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Respectfully, don't feed the trolls.
July 16, 2008 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bill dear, you forget Hillary's words throughout the campaign. When she was ahead by a hundred super delegates and Obama was consistently ahead in pledged delegates, she said often and forcefully, that there was no difference at all between the votes of pledged delegates and super delegates. Before the Pennsylvania primaries, she and Terry McAuliff said often that a win by one vote was a win. Period. She didn't win more popular votes by anyone's count but her own. You can check the final numbers the rest of the world uses at Real Clear Politics. Obama won. You can say that the percentage won by was a small percentage, but as Hillary often said, a win by one vote is a win and this win was by a lot more than one vote. Hillary never once pulled ahead in pledged delegates after Iowa. You can go back and check that out if you like. It was a hard fought race, but it's over. Hillary has moved on. You'd be happier if you did too. There will be no challenge vote at the convention. That's why we had seventeen months of campaigns and primaries and spent nearly half a billion dollars. We have our nominee. It isn't traditional to allow a vote, thought it may be that the defeated candidate speaks if the victorious candidate agrees. There have been some conventions where votes were taken. You can mark those years by the democrats losing the general election. The rest of us mean to see to it that a democrat is elected to the White House. Hillary says that she'll work her heart out for Obama. Why don't you join us? It's more pleasant than kicking against the pricks.
July 16, 2008 12:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
This what has always annoyed me with the Clinton supporters' argument. They always point to polls that show Clinton doing better than Obama against McCain. One MAJOR problem, Clinton is not getting attacked, throwing attacks or even in campaign mode. When she was in campaign mode, no one was attacking her towards the end of the primaries, Obama OR McCain.
That's a major factor of these "polls".
July 16, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, Nelly. Hold on for a second:
What you did there was more than a little misleading, Billy.
The rasumssen commentary ends about 3 sentences in. You added your own commentary right to the end of it, without any delineation.
Try again, Billy.
Besides.. are you really deluded you can't see both sides of this coin?
In that Ras survey, Gore and Hillary both outperformed Obama, while McCains share held consistent.
Is it not obvious to you that nobody is running AGAINST Gore or Hillary? Nobody is attacking them. Nobody is criticizing them.
You honestly don't think this has anything to do with it?
I'm not sure what's worse: that you realize it and refuse it, or that you don't realize it at all.
July 16, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are some sad people on this planet...Some people to get a reality check...FYI, BillC, the primaries are over...
And McBushSame has no chance...He is one of the worse politicians ever. He has no class and his wife is so elitist...
July 15, 2008 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a suggestion, If Clinton supporters are so loyal to her- why don't they pony up 1 measly dollar each and whaddaya know -18 Million dollars and zap no debt- Bill C why don't you try organizing and mobilizing and maybe through this you will find a reason to NOT kill yourself-dillweed:)
July 15, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
living in SC, i am happy to see this!! we are mobilizing to defeat McBush!
July 15, 2008 11:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woohoo! Where in SC are you? I grew up in Summerville. Now I'm a Midwest transplant, but I still consider myself a Carolina Girl (Best in the World)! :)
July 16, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is precisely the fallacy that is continuously repeated about Nader in 2000. There is no so-called "SPOILER" effect. These are people who would have otherwise NOT voted.
It was Gore's fault in 2000 for running such a poor campaign, that he couldn't have convinced those who would have stayed home, but instead voted for Nader in protest (or for host of other reasons).
It is clearly an anti-McCain vote (or a non-vote for McCain), but it is a net-nothing for Obama.
July 15, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me rephrase "net-nothing"; it does however lower the bar percentage-wise for Obama to reach a majority (obviously - see Clinton's 1992 "victory" vs Perot vs Bush). That is all.
July 16, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Uhm, so what? I don't care why they are voting for Barr, I just care that they do so that it helps Obama win the electors of a particular state (like Georgia or NC). I don't care about what it says or doesn't say about Obama. I care about numbers only. Go Barr!!
July 16, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
What? That's the most ridiculous statment of the night! Hillary lost and has no money, yeah, let's jump on that bandwagon!
July 16, 2008 12:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
The key person in the Carolinas is Bob Barr. Bob Barr may indeed be the Ralph Nader of 2000.
Based upon these polls, I would say that Obama has a shot in North Carolina. If he drives up the African-American vote and youth vote, it will be damn close.
North Carolina is definitely a toss up state.
July 16, 2008 5:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
good ole survey USA.
a 27 point gender gap in North Carolina... LMAO. unrealistic and impossible. in 2004 it was a 14 point gender gap Kerry vs. Bush.
if it was Clinton vs. McCain i would believe such nonsense but not Obama/McCain race. another survey USA poll to throw in the trash...
July 16, 2008 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
From where I am sitting in metro Atlanta, it looks like Obama is making a big play in GA. He was just here last week to hold a townhall meeting and the place went crazy. McCain only comes here for fundraisers. He will need to start campainging here or it will only get closer and GA will be more in play. The more time he has to spend in "safe" GA, the less time for OH, MI, PA, and NH. Go Bama!!
July 16, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude...of course they went crazy in Atlanta...get outside of the 285 loop and find an Obama sign...not gonna happen.
July 16, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe I can answer that question: 1992.
Driving home from my father's funeral in South Carolina the week before the election, I literally could not find a radio station whose ads were not entirely Republican campaign commercials. Even black gospel stations! By the time I got to Statesville NC, I couldn't stand it any longer and stopped to buy some tapes.
I concluded that Clinton was going to win the election, and that the Republican effort was to save the downticket races.
July 16, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Never thought I would root for Bob Barr. But if only he can stay in the race and eat away 8-10 points this will over before we know
Go Barr!!
July 16, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, Nelly. Hold on for a second:
What you did there was more than a little misleading, Billy.
The rasumssen commentary ends about 3 sentences in. You added your own commentary right to the end of it, without any delineation.
Try again, Billy.
Besides.. are you really deluded you can't see both sides of this coin?
In that Ras survey, Gore and Hillary both outperformed Obama, while McCains share held consistent.
Is it not obvious to you that nobody is running AGAINST Gore or Hillary? Nobody is attacking them. Nobody is criticizing them.
You honestly don't think this has anything to do with it?
I'm not sure what's worse: that you realize it and refuse it, or that you don't realize it at all.
July 16, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink