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Polls: McCain Coming On Strong In Battleground States
Uh, oh. Conventional wisdom holds that McCain's campaign is tanking and has been an all-around disorganized mess, but a new round of polling from Quinnipiac suggests John McCain could be making major headway in key swing states. He's also taken the lead in Colorado, where Barack Obama is making a major play for support.
Here are the latest numbers, compared to Quinnipiac's previous poll from a month ago:
Colorado
McCain (R) 46% (+2)
Obama (D) 44% (-5)
Michigan
Obama (D) 46% (-2)
McCain (R) 42% (+0)Minnesota
Obama (D) 46% (-8)
McCain (R) 44% (+7)Wisconsin
Obama (D) 50% (-1)
McCain (R) 39% (+0)
From the pollster's analysis: "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."
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UH OH!
July 24, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
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July 24, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
When was this poll conducted? Because John McCain was having a good press up until about a week ago.
July 24, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
The polls were conducted July 14 to July 22, according to Q.
And McCain really just started getting negative press Tuesday, the last day of the poll.
July 24, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, CT.
July 24, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
And negative press is in the eyes of the beholder. CBS is doing their damnedest to spin Obama's trip as a negative for Obama and a plus for McCain.
Maybe Katie Couric is hoping to be McCain's perky new Press Secretary?
July 24, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? Negative press? I haven't seen any. Well only on MSNBC. And even that is only on Countdown and the Verdict. And it's not like the people that need to be reached watch those shows. I still think there is vast silance on McCain's bungling of his campaign.
July 24, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
July 14-22, which means that the first half included what could be considered a "good" week for McCain, days before Obama made his trip and the McCain camp lost it's collective mind.
In addition to their national poll from last night, it seems like NBC was in a rush to get polls out there that would somehow correlate to Obama's trip. Problem is that they finished their polling in the middle of the trip. As many have noted, we'll probably need wait a week after the trip ends before we start seeing if it had any affect on the polls. Of course, getting the numbers out there now allow the NBC folks to spend hours asking, "Why no bounce?" And isn't that what's it's all about.
That said, the stupid yet seemingly effective McCain gas price ads seem to be working in these states. I don't buy the MN swing, though...don't buy it. We have to remember that those silly ads have really gone essentially unchallenged by the Obama campaign. There's still time...those ads won't win him an election but they can make it close in the early stages of the race.
July 24, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was polled in CO by Quinnipiac on Monday night.
July 24, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Off topic but is your avatar from Zion NP in Utah? It looks familiar, maybe taken around the Emerald Pools area?
July 24, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't this about strategy though? Right now, at least according to what I've read, Obama is spending on ground game and McCain is spending on advertising. It takes longer to setup the ground game than it does to put out a 30 second ad. The ground game helps down the stretch whereas the ads have an immediate effect. Obama can always do an ad blitz, but McCain can't wave a wand and create a ground game.
Am I way off base here or what?
July 24, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, I think you're exactly right. And I hate to parse polls, because I generally tend to believe them, especially when there's movement this dramatic.
But, reviewing: MI and WI seem about right.
CO is worrisome, the hope is when the convention is held there, things will change.
MN is fracking weird. I'm not surprised that there may be some movement as a result of advertising and the presence of the GOP setting up shop for the convention, but this much movement seems a bit much.
But, at the end of the day, I err on the side of caution: DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 24, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
One set of polls and you claim that Obama is tanking? The only one that is tanking is you and it is for Hillary.
This is the first CO poll McCain has ever led and it's the first poll since forever that Udall hasn't been leading Schaffer. I am willing to bet, based on the Senate poll, that it's an outlier especially considering the other recent polls showing an Obama lead in the state.
As for Minnesota? I'm not really sure, but it's just one poll and most other outfits have Obama with a big lead.
July 24, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pollster.com average for MN before this was released was Obama +16. Rasmussen's MN poll from yesterday had Obama ahead by 13. This is an outlier. Has to be. The other three probably aren't that off and may be pretty close to reality.
July 24, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would be very surprised if MN went to McCain. I just don't see that happening. Some rural areas are tending towards McCain, they bought into that whole Muslim Koran thing. Hopefully perceptions will change with increased press. That being said, those rural people just are set in their ways. It would be a big change in thinking and ideology to vote Obama. Lived their for 15 yrs. and have friends there still, this is what they are saying.
July 24, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, those Senate numbers send up a flag. I don't doubt that it's that close in Colorado, but that's just weird.
July 24, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Hate Hillary meme is really frigg'n old and really frigg'n boring. Do you have anything relevant to say?
July 24, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not even sure who he was responding to; nobody said Obama was tanking (though if he were, it would, of course, be Hillary's fault).
July 24, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few points on these polls.
1--Too many undecideds.
2--A few contradict other sm\imiliarly reliable polls taken in the same period.
3--Obama still leads in 3 of the 4.
The Minnesota poll woefully underestimates Obama's support. A just released Ramsussen poll shows Obama leading 52% - 39% which is consistent with other polling.
Colorado is close and will be close. The latest Rasmussen and PPP polls released this week show Obama leading 50% - 47% and 47% - 43% respectively. Obama leads in Colorado narrowly but he must work to maintain his lead and win this red state (yes it is red----only voted DEM once since I believe the Johnson landslide in 1964)
Wisconsin is consistent with other polls and Michigan's results is very consistent showing Obama with a narrow lead.
July 24, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's no way that MN poll can be accurate. That's a blue state, period. Maybe the GOP convention has something to do with it, but it's too eco-conscious to ever go GOP nowadays.
July 24, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
It has been reliably Blue but it has been closer and closer over the last three election cycles. There is a strong presence of "values voters" in Minnesota of the pro-life variety. They make it closer than you would think. This is also the case in Wisconsin, which was the state that went for Kerry by the single closest margin.
I am guessing that these polls reflect the difficulty of trying to guess the likely composition of voters in the fall. Different polling outfits make different judgments about that.
July 24, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also, people shouldn't forget that (a) CW is currently swinging away from Franken and toward Republican Coleman in MN, (b) the RNC is coming to town (I'm starting to hear the buzz here in the Twin Cities), and (c) lots of folks (Minnesotans and otherwise) still hear "maverick" when they hear McCain. I know it's bizarre, but some folks don't follow the news the wy readers of this site do. Because of that, Obama's going have to get off his high horse, take off the gloves, and rough up the old man eventually.
This race *is* tighter than it looks. Even in blueblueblue Minnesota.
July 24, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
That MN poll looks really weird. Definitely don't trust it yet.
WI & MI is probably just noise.
The Colorado one is the only one that looks like it might have some actual bad news in it.
We'll have to see if the trend continues in future polling.
July 24, 2008 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
But this is Colorado, the state where they want to make a fertilized egg a person with "rights", WTF? There has to be some very right wing whack jobs there to get that on the ballot.
July 24, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the crosstabs in the CO poll. They oversampled republicans by 8-10 points.
July 24, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
How odd......
Rasmussen (far more on-target than Quinnipiac) shows:
Minnesota: Obama leads by 12 (July 22)
Michigan: Obama by 5 (July 21)
Colorado: Obama by 7 (July 21)
Wisconsin: Obama by 11 (July 8)
Plus the NATIONAL TRACKING POLLS show absolutely no McCain movement for a month. Funny - if there were these disastrous losses in these battleground states, would it not be reflected in the National Tracking Polls? After all, these are not small states.
Ah yes - I'd definitely be worried if I were Obama. (insert eyeroll here)
July 24, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Q-Poll also very strong according to 538 rankings. The numbers don't matter quite as much as the trends, which are clearly down for Obama. McCain seems to be gaining traction on offshore drilling, as appalling as that is. Also, in addition to lower levels of advertising, I think Obama's inability to hit back at McCain's outrageous attacks has probably hurt.
Anyway, it's early in the scheme of things. I'm not dismissing the polls, though. The negative direction is real.
July 24, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that the irony here is that McCain's poll surge reflect that fact that it is he (and not Obama) who is putting his election ahead of the country's needs.
Why? Because McCain is more willing to do or say or advertise things that play fast and loose with facts or instill fear in Americans.
July 24, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
How does that ad "play fast and loose with facts?"
Obama said in the debates that 15,000, 20,000, 30,000 it didn't matter. It wouldn't help.
Then he said, he always knew 30,000 troops would help the security sttuation. Then he took down the web page that said the surge wasn't working and said he always knew it would work. Then he said the other day that it was the tribal leaders in Iraq that changed the security sittuation there...the only thing fast and loose is Obama's tounge.
July 24, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, great, yet another person who believes that the Iraqis have absolutely NOTHING to do with their own security. This is American hubris at its finest.
The Iraqis do read and can grasp American public sentiment. And they haven't been betting on the GOP. Great attention was paid to the Democratic primary and all made note of who lost and how she voted on the Iraq war. It doesn't take much to figure that you better get your country together before the Americans pull out because that is EXACTLY what will begin to play out on January 20, 2009.
Gee, this isn't rocket science but it does require leaving your hubris at the door. Try that next time.
July 24, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never said they have nothing to do with there own security, however, some credit does have to go to us (I use the term us very loosely on this thread)as well. Obama said before the surge 30,000 additional troops would have "no effect" and could even make the security sittuation worse. Now he refuses to admit that he was wrong and expects us to believe he never said it....that my friend(looser than us) is hubris!
July 24, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Give me a break. Obama is the one not putting our country first. He is over in Europe making speeches apologizing for our country. What an empty suit Obama is and what a disgrace to this great country he would be if he were President. America is waking up to that and he will lose in November.
July 29, 2008 4:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Everyone forgets that polls are lagging indicators. They tell us more about the last few days than they do about today or the future. The McCain implosion will be seen in next week's polls. McCain is spending a lot of money on ads just to stay in the game. Obama's foreign trip and the ground game build-up are both designed to reap future rewards, while ad buys are designed for a shorter time horizon. Don't panic!
Stay in the game, stay motivated, don't get complacent and don't worry about the twists and turns of a campaign. There may even be times when McCain pulls ahead--during those times "keep your eyes on the prize."
July 24, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Lagging indicators: This poll then should be in response to "Social Security is a disgrace" "We're a nation of whiners" "maybe cigarettes is how we'll kill [Iranians]".
These polls are depressing.
July 24, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Depressing, yes. But we've had eight years to see just how myopic, ignorant, and sluggish the voting public is, even regarding its own evident self-interest.
This is one bear you can poke with a stick for eight years and it still think it's dreaming.
July 24, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Quin is completely contradicting Ras? It'll be interesting to see their Ohio poll.
July 24, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey folks, here's a much bigger sample from Gallup on the same question, pointing in the other direction
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Obama-Gains-Over-McCain-Swing-States-Since-June.aspx
They actually have Obama +8 in swing states.
July 24, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree the MN poll is probably a bit of an outlier. I grew up in WI and there is no way Obama is up 10pts in WI and only up a handful in MN. Remember WI went to Kerry by only a hundred or so votes in 04 while MN went by several points.
Obama was playing possum/supposedly flip-flopping for a couple of weeks and most polls reflect that including, I think these.
There was some evidence that that was turning around even before this trip so by next week Obama should be making decent ground again. I also agree that the ground game wont be visible until Nov so not to worry.
Besides, if everyone thinks this is close race, it will keep people on their toes and keep us from getting complacent.
July 24, 2008 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Notice also that Q has polls of the Senate races and all of them also show movement towards the Republican candidates.
For instance, in CO, where McCain "overtakes" Obama, suddenly the Senate race where Udall was up several points is now tied.
There was obviously something going on here that has nothing to do with Obama and McCain. Either a change of sample or more simply a movement towards Republicans in general.
But it was obviously not specific to McCain
July 24, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
What we are seeing are the results of two different strategies. McCain has been putting up a lot of TV in the battleground states. He has gone negative in a pretty ham handed way. This is a long way out for a negative campaign, but I guess his people think he has to drive Obama down just to stay competitive.
Obama is not advertising so much. Right now Obama is spending his money on his ground game. He has also been doing a lot to demonstrate that he is commander in chief material. The election is in November. Don't panic over July polls. I know I was overjoyed when Kerry went up by a bunch in 2004. Bush came back in November. So far Obama has demonstrated remarkable skill. I will go with him until I feel he is screwing up. This race is still Obama's to lose. As long as he remains close and continues answering the questions the voters have about his experience, we will be OK in November.
The big problem with a negative campaign is that it suppresses the votes of both the target and the mudslinger. Obama can take some hits. The real question is can McCain afford the downside from going totally negative all the time. I don't think that is a winning strategy.
July 24, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I ain't worried.
Not yet, anyways.
Even if we assume these polls were accurate (which is a huge assumption, mind ya) Obama clearly has the steam to go all the way, while I ain't sure if McLame can stand till the finish.
July 24, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Or even to the convention. Maybe he gives his acceptance speech to an empty room. By the time he takes the podium, I imagine most of the delegates will have moved on to the strip bars and watering holes.
July 24, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or airport restrooms...
July 24, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any poll that doesn't include cell phones overestimates McCain. I mean how many people do you know that even use a land line these days?
July 24, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
No smoke and no fire here, for reasons already addressed... Lagging, lagging, lagging.
July 24, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
these polls are all over the place if obama was up by 12 points yesterday so what happen over night to drop to 4... ras daily tracking poll has obama up by 4 now, but during the last 2 weeks they were either tied or obama up by 1 or 2 points. this might be an outlier..............
July 24, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few things to talk about here.
Quinnipiac has a good track record, but the Pollster.com or Real Clear Politics composites are the best way to get an accurate measure of where these things are headed.
Secondly, this round of polling doesn't include the latest McCain gaffes, the CBS "mistake", and the reaction from Obama's tour. It also doesn't really include the al-Maliki situation in full, since our media (typically) was slow to react, nor does it include the fact the shifts towards what Obama has been preaching for years now, such as talks with Iran (which are underway), drawing down Iraqi forces (which Iraq wants us to do), and putting more troops into Afghanistan (which the DOD announced today it is going to do.)
In short, McCain was getting good press the past few weeks until the past few days, when everything started going Obama's way, and the public hasn't had a chance to internalize all of this yet. Once it does, things should bounce back to where they've been: a solid Obama lead.
July 24, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't place your hope in McCain's gaffes. The only people who even know they're gaffes are already for Obama. The low-information voters who will decide the election don't know they're gaffes, and McCain's supporters don't know and don't care.
July 24, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
"it's been a good month for senator mccain"
i guess if you ignore all the gaffes and blunders, then yeah, it has been a good month.
this doesn't make sense. it doesn't. his campaign is a wreck, he's screwign up basic fastc about the one area he's supposed to be an expert on, and yet, he's GAINING in the polls.
i guess the american really are stupid.
i mean, we did RE-ELECT GW Bush...
July 24, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah really
to see obama live at 1PM
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/watch-obama-live-in-germany/
July 24, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can't get excited about any of these polls yet. It's all about the ground game folks.
July 24, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm gonna have to give a thumbs down to Quinnipiac this time. I don't doubt that they might be right on a couple of the states, but MN is just wrong, and that calls into question their polling methods. Coupled with the fact that other pollsters are not finding the same results and I'm forced to conclude that perhaps these are off base. Perhaps not entirely off base, but enough for me to be skeptical of the results.
July 24, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please, McCain ads have lied over and over. Latest example, Obama to blame for gas prices?! You are such a troll. He has totally supported the troops you ignoramus.
July 24, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
For SFC Wallace, and I know, don't feed. I just had to call him a name today, he is tarnishing our site.
July 24, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I was wondering how that was in response to me. ;D
July 24, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm tarnishing your site? Get a grip. Just because I don't join in the group Obamagasmfest? He sat right there in front of Katie Couric and couldn't say that the increase in US forces (the surge) was a success. She asked him 5 times 5 different ways. He himmed and hawwed and threw in a couple "I love the troops" but he can't say it was a success for stricktly political reasons because you wingnuts on the left will tar and feather him like you did on FISA. That is spineless or as the ad says..."he'd rather lose a war and win an election."
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2008/07/cbs-katie-couric.html
July 24, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
"He sat right there in front of Katie Couric and couldn't say that the increase in US forces (the surge) was a success."
Good for him for not falling for Couric's pathetic "gotcha" style questions. It doesn't matter how many times and in how many ways you try to ask a bogus question, it's still bogus.
July 24, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a Democrat who grew up in a house with a retired NCO (MSG), I recognized that the Democrat's pre-emptive declaration that the surge would "fail" was foolish. The success of the surge was always going to be measured in how well it reduced U.S. casualties, regardless of whether the reduction in casualties indicated "success" in Iraqi nation-building or the transformation of the Middle East (which is most certainly does not). You've got to figure that if we can't "bring them home" we might as well "keep them safe" and prevent the need for more Falujahs, which would result in only the need for still more troops. Then return to debating the real issues at hand. You don't want the merit of your arguments to be premised on body bags. Don't let the debate over grand strategy or theater strategy get bogged down in the success or failure of a particular operation. But, Obama fell into the typically pacifistic framing that dominates the thinking of most Vietnam era Baby Boomer Democrats and will permeate th