Wisconsin Obama (D) 50% (-1) McCain (R) 39% (+0)

UH OH!

Isn't this about strategy though? Right now, at least according to what I've read, Obama is spending on ground game and McCain is spending on advertising. It takes longer to setup the ground game than it does to put out a 30 second ad. The ground game helps down the stretch whereas the ads have an immediate effect. Obama can always do an ad blitz, but McCain can't wave a wand and create a ground game.

Am I way off base here or what?

One set of polls and you claim that Obama is tanking? The only one that is tanking is you and it is for Hillary.

This is the first CO poll McCain has ever led and it's the first poll since forever that Udall hasn't been leading Schaffer. I am willing to bet, based on the Senate poll, that it's an outlier especially considering the other recent polls showing an Obama lead in the state.

As for Minnesota? I'm not really sure, but it's just one poll and most other outfits have Obama with a big lead.

That MN poll looks really weird. Definitely don't trust it yet.

WI & MI is probably just noise.

The Colorado one is the only one that looks like it might have some actual bad news in it.

We'll have to see if the trend continues in future polling.

How odd......

Rasmussen (far more on-target than Quinnipiac) shows:

Minnesota: Obama leads by 12 (July 22)
Michigan: Obama by 5 (July 21)
Colorado: Obama by 7 (July 21)
Wisconsin: Obama by 11 (July 8)

Plus the NATIONAL TRACKING POLLS show absolutely no McCain movement for a month. Funny - if there were these disastrous losses in these battleground states, would it not be reflected in the National Tracking Polls? After all, these are not small states.

Ah yes - I'd definitely be worried if I were Obama. (insert eyeroll here)

Everyone forgets that polls are lagging indicators. They tell us more about the last few days than they do about today or the future. The McCain implosion will be seen in next week's polls. McCain is spending a lot of money on ads just to stay in the game. Obama's foreign trip and the ground game build-up are both designed to reap future rewards, while ad buys are designed for a shorter time horizon. Don't panic!

Stay in the game, stay motivated, don't get complacent and don't worry about the twists and turns of a campaign. There may even be times when McCain pulls ahead--during those times "keep your eyes on the prize."

Hey folks, here's a much bigger sample from Gallup on the same question, pointing in the other direction

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Obama-Gains-Over-McCain-Swing-States-Since-June.aspx

They actually have Obama +8 in swing states.

What we are seeing are the results of two different strategies. McCain has been putting up a lot of TV in the battleground states. He has gone negative in a pretty ham handed way. This is a long way out for a negative campaign, but I guess his people think he has to drive Obama down just to stay competitive.

Obama is not advertising so much. Right now Obama is spending his money on his ground game. He has also been doing a lot to demonstrate that he is commander in chief material. The election is in November. Don't panic over July polls. I know I was overjoyed when Kerry went up by a bunch in 2004. Bush came back in November. So far Obama has demonstrated remarkable skill. I will go with him until I feel he is screwing up. This race is still Obama's to lose. As long as he remains close and continues answering the questions the voters have about his experience, we will be OK in November.

The big problem with a negative campaign is that it suppresses the votes of both the target and the mudslinger. Obama can take some hits. The real question is can McCain afford the downside from going totally negative all the time. I don't think that is a winning strategy.

Any poll that doesn't include cell phones overestimates McCain. I mean how many people do you know that even use a land line these days?

"it's been a good month for senator mccain"

i guess if you ignore all the gaffes and blunders, then yeah, it has been a good month.

this doesn't make sense. it doesn't. his campaign is a wreck, he's screwign up basic fastc about the one area he's supposed to be an expert on, and yet, he's GAINING in the polls.

i guess the american really are stupid.

i mean, we did RE-ELECT GW Bush...

yeah really

to see obama live at 1PM
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/watch-obama-live-in-germany/

I'm gonna have to give a thumbs down to Quinnipiac this time. I don't doubt that they might be right on a couple of the states, but MN is just wrong, and that calls into question their polling methods. Coupled with the fact that other pollsters are not finding the same results and I'm forced to conclude that perhaps these are off base. Perhaps not entirely off base, but enough for me to be skeptical of the results.

Don't feed the trolls, 'er I mean, the polls!

The crosstabs in the CO poll are downright bizarre. Obama's winning Dems by roughly the same margin McCain's winning Republicans, and Obama's winning independents by 8 points, but McCain's up by 2 points overall?

Colorado polls are messed up because there are a lot more Repubs than normal.

Those Polls are FOS.

It seems like McCain is trying to win the polls now whereas Obama is laying the groundwork to win the election later. McCain is vastly outspending Obama in television advertisements - which is affecting polling numbers, whereas Obama is vastly outspending McCain on the ground with GOTV registrations, field offices and staffers in battleground States - all of which will not show up in polls until much later in the process.

All that these polls show me is that the vast majority of people are not paying attention yet, because there is no way McCain should be climbing in polls if people were paying attention.

Some more crosstab math. In CO, Quinn is roughly estimating that around 30 percent of the electorate will be registered Dem. Around 35 percent registered Rep. and the rest Ind.

These aren't exact of course because Quinn doesn't give us the exact numbers, but it's the only way the math works to give us a McCain lead.

In Minnesota, the Republican turnout is estimated somewhere in the high 20 percent, but it has McCain dominating in independents.

There is no need to panic because nobody is really paying attention at this point. The most important thing is for Obama to build his ground organization.

Once appropriate organization is in place, then, he should start the air war. Without solid organization the air war can't give that much effect. John has been spending all his money on the air but Obama is spending most of his money on the ground.

I expect the media coverage to change starting from Next Week. By the way, it is only one poll.

Don't discount the effect of a very favorable portrait in Time Mag recently about McCain.

Someone raised a very interesting issue: Do these polls include cell-phone-only people? If they don't, polling organizations could be moving toward another "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment.

After reading the recent polls, I think conclusion that this election is very difficult to poll. Given the breakneck speed of the narrative, the election will be decided for the way the bases will mobilize.

The ground game is going to be the defining factor of this election. That gave Bush the victory in 2004. This year, is the other way around, the dems are definitely more committed and excited.

We can't forget the groups that could be decisive: african americans, hispanics (for me that's the poll number we should pay attention to) and the young vote. On the swing states, their turnout will be the make or break point.

McCain's ads are stupid but effective with the undecided, because their message is simple,even if is misleading. Let's not forget the racism thing, is still there. Some people will look for any reason for not vote for Obama.

Finally, the question is why some many state polls contradict each other?

People who obsess over every poll are going to go insane long before November. Just saying.

Just how valid are these polls? First, they were conducted over the course of a week (started last Monday). That's way too long for polling; most pollsters survey for 1-3 days, because it helps reduce error. Second, the polls were only conducted on landlines, so they don't include individuals who prefer to be reached on cellphones (i.e., on-the-go individuals), or cellphone-only users. Third, Rasmussen just came out with some one day polls in a few states, and even though they are landline-only polls too, they found, in Minnesota, Obama +13 (a decrease of 4 -- probably near MOE -- from previous poll) versus +2 in Quinnipiac; Colorado: O +3 Rasmussen (a gain from previous poll) vs. O -2 Quinnipiac. So, the picture isn't as clear as the media is trying to make it. These polls should be taken with a grain of salt, mostly for the first reason.

Furthermore, there should be as much pushback on these as possible, because they play into the emerging CW that Obama's trip abroad was going to turn off voters at home and/or that McCain's attack on his foreign policy credentials was effective. Yet, none of that can be derived from these polls, because they were conducted over a period of significant volatility. [You would need polls AFTER the trip to make those conclusions.] As such, they may have actually only picked up that volatility, not where voters are settling out now that the trip abroad is winding down. For instance, maybe voters were weighing Obama & McCain pretty equally over the last week, because of the volatility -- couldn't settle on a choice. But maybe now they have. Perhaps, Obama moved up, or perhaps McCain is now ahead in their minds. Again, no one really can tell from these polls, because of their time frame. Polls conducted next week would be much more helpful in clarifying this point.

Sorry for the long post... It's just that I'm already seeing how the press is gonna play this. I hope I'm wrong.

Q released results on "likely voters." Not sure about the other tracking polls. Not a few pollsters consider "likely voter" samples to be unreliable this long before an election. Depending on their methodology, these polls could be way more accurate or way less accurate than the other ones we're seeing.

What is a "likely voter"?

I think polls should be "registered voters" for we have no idea who will show up at the polls.

What's wrong with people? Gas prices are up 300%, the economy is on the brink of great depression, war , chaos, declining prestige, massive problems everywhere. How could people ever want more of this?

I just don't get it.

There's quite a bit of volatility among individual state polls at this point, but the overall trend - this week as well as in previous weeks - is pretty favorable for Obama. Pundits, bloggers, reporters, and yes, even the good folks at TPM are wont to overanalyze individual polls at this stage of the race because doing so provides something "new" to talk about each day. The reality is that the race has been pretty stable since the primaries ended, with Obama maintaining a small but steady lead both nationally and in most of the key battleground states. We're all fixated on the possibility of a game-changer, but it hasn't happened yet, and it probably won't until the public starts seriously paying attention after the conventions. Until then, the divergent polls ought to be viewed basically as noise - part of a bigger picture, but not individually determinative. Also, I agree with previous posters who have suggested that some of the polls in this latest batch are outliers.

We'll have plenty of data to digest once the general election season really begins. Until then, focus on the big picture, which is looking pretty damn good right now. The images of Obama hanging out with the troops were pure gold, and he's done a good job of looking statesman-like this week. Times are bad enough for Republicans and McCain is an uninspiring enough candidate that Obama will almost certainly win if voters see him as credibly presidential and not overly risky. The events of this week have gone a long way toward enhancing Obama's image in that regard. In short, it's been a very, very good week for our guy, regardless of what one set of polls suggests.

Tragically, and regardless of which polling outfit is being used, there is no doubt that McCain's numbers are supposedly "increasing," especially in the battleground areas.

I, for one, am not surprised by these statistics at all because I really believe that many Americans are becoming more and more conservative, arrogant and isolated in their outlooks on life. It is no wonder that so much of the rest of the world is appalled by the United States as a "whole"--our consumerism, our energy consumption, our sense of entitlement, and our arrogance towards the problems that face ALL of us all on the planet such as global warming and world starvation/hunger.

Just look at the wonderful reception that Obama is experiencing right now outside of our borders in Europe and the Middle East--at the same time that McCain is supposedly gaining momentum here in America.

As I have said before in my TPM comments, I am embarrassed my the number of Americans who are still willing to vote for yet another Republican president after all that this Administration has done to our economy and world. And yet, sadly, I am not surprised by this horrible "trend!" I would go so far as to say that much of the movement in the polls towards McCain is coming from those "so-called" Independents"--who are really nothing more than Closet Republicans coming home to their Republican Roosts. How else could these so-called Independents be so indecisive in not knowing which political party to identify with after Iraq, Katrina and the tanking economy?! In other words, in this day in age, there really is no such thing as an "Independent" any more!

I am appalled by the apathy and/or willingness of so many Americans to remain ignorant. And yet, I know that it is very real phenomenon! And as far as all of the gaffes and enormous mistakes that McCain is making increasingly more every day, I fear that these "charming little stumbles" make him even more appealing (or endearing) to the types of people to which I am referring. It doesn't matter to them that McCain is a multi-millionaire, like Bush, when they certainly are not one. He still comes across to THEM as the kind of guy THEY would want to have a beer with--quite a tragic commentary on our country!

Heaven help us, because we really need it in this country!

I keep thinking these polls have to be wrong. Nobody I know, absolutely nobody, will vote for Mccain. The man is entering old timers disease as we speak. These polls have to be messed with. What is Karl Rove really up to?

For every "Uh oh", there's a "Yes we can" soon to follow:

Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center.

Obama now polls even higher than Hillary Clinton among Latinos.

In addition to their strong support for Obama, Latino voters have moved sharply into the Democratic camp in the past two years, reversing a pro-GOP tide that had been running among Latinos earlier in the decade. Some 65% of Latino registered voters now say they identify with or lean to the Democratic Party; compared with just 26% who identify with or lean to the GOP. This 39 percentage point Democratic Party identification edge is larger than it has been at any time this decade; as recently as 2006, the partisan gap was just 21 percentage points.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/24/poll-sharp-reversal-for-o_n_114747.html

The CO, MI, and WI numbers look right but MN is definitely off.

Remember that the significance of polls is not the absolute numbers but the overall trend. Some of Barack's June support has gone into the undecided column.

As for the RCP averages (which are not weighted by pollster accuracy or date), in both 2004 and in the 2008 primaries -- they were good predictors of the winner in each state but terrible at predicting the winning margin, since one bad outlier from Zogby and two outdated polls from others could throw the whole margin off.

Udall and Schaefer are tied in CO, and Coleman is ahead of Franken by 15? Neither of these sound right to me.

While I think that it's sensible to not get completely wigged out by the polls this early, I also think that Obama is making a horribly bad strategic and tactical mistake by not countering the McCain advertising blitz more effectively now.

The sad fact is that a majority of Americans, including swing voters, get most of their news from television and radio, and this means they're getting the news from Fox, CNN and Rush. In this completely toxic media environment, it's either crazy or arrogant to assume that your vaunted "ground game" and a late spurt of advertising is going to magically produce voters in November after they've been sold for 12 weeks on how dangerously scary and radical Obama is. Obama is an unknown quantity to millions and millions of voters, and his campaign is making a fundamental mistake in allowing McCain and the GOP to establish the first definition of Obama in the minds of these voters. If Obama loses (as I think he will), the post-mortems are going to focus on this period in the campaign as the huge missed opportunity. As nice as speeches in Berlin are, they will do next to nothing in persuading low-information- and swing voters in the U.S. that he's the best choice to address their concerns about the economy, Iraq, and health care.

These polls mean nothing. It is July. I will get scared in October if McCain is still leading, which I doubt