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Poll Suggests Obama Putting Deep-Red North Dakota In Play

A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Barack Obama may actually be putting North Dakota in play, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964 but has found itself targeted by the Obama campaign's advertising.

The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

The state has only three electoral votes, but those are three votes that the Republican can usually count on winning very easily. In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry here by a 63%-36% margin.


Comments (28)

But Karl Rove told me Obama was wasting his money there?

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Just like in Montana!

just like in virginia

http://sensico.wordpress.com

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and Mississippi

and Texas

and Alaska

and North Carolina

Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon

and a few other places too

I am, of course, tickled to death to read these sorts of reports, but I hope that what the Obama campaign really takes away from this sort of thing is that we should put a real effort into Texas. There are some "solid" red states that are up for grabs this time around, and there is no red state on the map that is a more tempting target than Texas. Even if we do not win it this go around, a hard fought campaign there can pay dividends in the future.

This week's The Nation has a cover story on turning Texas blue. It made Tena very happy, as you could imagine.

I know how much you enjoy polls! Some more good news for you!

... I hope that what the Obama campaign really takes away from this sort of thing is that we should put a real effort into Texas.

Texas is possible, well worth the effort.

I can see an even bigger pay-off in its effects on down-ticket races.  Tom DeLay's redistricting machinations may backfire by putting several previously impenetrably-red congressional districts into play.  And the Texas legislature may also be in play.

Combine BigO's coattails with McSame's contagious constipation, and you've got a recipe for a Blue Tsunami.

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I'm in a strongly Republican pocket of San Antonio, but I don't see ANY enthusiasm for McCain. Most of San Antonio leans Democratic, and my Obama sticker is one of many I see every day out on the road.

I really think it is possible for Obama to win Texas again, now for the general. I hope hope hope that he does campaign and put resources in here.

McCain's attempts to paint Obama as "unAmerican" don't seem to be resonating in North Dakota.

ND is one of the places really struggling with the economy, and the flight of their young people out of state, etc....After the disaster that has been the last 8 years, is it any wonder they are questioning the wisdom of voting for a 3rd Bush term?

But Phil Gramm says it's all in our heads....

Hey, you're a CT resident, yes? John Edwards is going to be on "Where We LIve" (WNPR) tomorrow morning...FWIW. 90.5 on the dial....


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rasmussen polls should be thrown in the toilet

he is up 5 in MT... and up JUST 5 in NJ?

ummmmmm... no... not possible... nada, not gonna happen that he would win both states by the same margin.

then he says Obama is down 3 in MO and down 1 in ND.

again... nuh uh.... he wont lose Missouri by more than he loses ND.

no we are supposed to believe Obama is just up 12 in IL??!! he will win it by 25

obviously rasmussen is under polling urban areas of MO, IL and NJ to get those ridiculous results.

This is good news, but let's work more on winning Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.

Good news. Esp. considering Rasmussen underpolls Obama support. For instance, Obama up only by 11 points in IL? Not in real world.

That was my reaction to the poll as well. Well, that and wondering "why are they even bothering to poll IL?".

Yep, grudgingly, I can restrain from arguing against the 5-point NJ poll. (Knowing NJ is full of dem crooks and repub crooks taking turns playing musical chairs, but 11 point IL poll- as some governor would say- Rasmussen is just "blowing smoke."

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I've always been kind of amazed that ND managed to send pretty-decent Byron Dorgan to Washington.

I guess SD is similar - it's said that SD likes to send Republicans to the statehouse and Democrats to DC (setting aside the travesty of Thune unseating Daschle).

Anyway, great news.

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that travesty gave us Harry Reid and Howard Dean, people with balls.

Daschle was a great guy but was weak, same with McCauliffe.

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I'd say Daschle is roughly equivalent to Reid. Both are/were good guys who knuckled under far too often, with the occasional principled stand thrown in there now and then.

But Daschle compared to Thune? Pffff. No contest.

And agreed about McAuliffe. He's probably a decent guy for the most part, but IMO somehow comes across as about the weakest Dem imaginable. With a few rare exceptions, of course.

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Reid has balls? Since when?

If he had a pair, he'd make Republicans actually filibuster to stop a bill, rather than requiring a 60-vote supermajority to pass it.

And don't get me started on the "balls" it took to bring Bush's pet telecom immunity bill to the floor. If he really had any balls, he would have made sure that bill never got out of committee.

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"Deep-red" North Dakota hasn't elected a Republican U. S. Senator since 1980. And, as this post notes, hasn't voted Democratic for President since 1964. I have always wondered why this unusual phenomenon exists.

Also this unrelated one - I live in Portland OR. North Dakota has about 0.2% of the total U. S. population but for some reason it's not at all unusual to see 2 or 3 native North Dakotans in the daily newspaper obituaries. I don't understand that one either.

wow and hearing what gramm said this will probably hurt mcsame in other states..............

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I understand the comments from some who are skeptical that states like North Carolina and Georgia, let alone Alaska and North Dakota, are in play, but this is what gives me hope. Obama's got a superb team working for him. Perhaps this is just a blip and in a few weeks, McCain will be ahead with a comfortable lead. But along with the polls showing close races in North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia and the ones him leading in those states and states like Montana, a narrative storm is gathering. A few more of these, and even McCain's base, the media, won't be able to ignore it. That alone is going to yield huge dividends.

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Barack Obama has the money, the resources and the ground game that's a recipe for a win in ND. The 50 state (Dean) strategy works.

What do all these interior northern states have in common? The people who live out here don't have an obsession with meddling abroad and have a lot less fear of being attacked by anyone from abroad, except Canada of course, and lately we're more likely to want to get in there than to want to keep them out.

Don't cave on Iraq and Iran Obama!

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I don't see anything particularly inconsistent about Rasmussen's polling this year.

Obama is a Midwesterner and appeals to a moderate, LaFollette-type Progressivism that has legs all over the Plains states in a way that no recent Democratic nominee has touched. The last Midwestern nominee, Mondale, was from the other wing of the party; the machine-labor one. This kind of thing puts IA, WI and MN in the bag for us, and makes us competitive in ND, MT, IN and so on.

At the same time, the machine-labor wing still isn't fully nailed down (hence the weakish numbers in New Jersey, and also in MO and MI where the Democratic base is labor union industrial), and in Illinois, Downstaters are deeply suspicious of anything and everything carrying the label, "Chicago Democrat", especially when so many prominent Chicago Democrats are complete and total buttheads (Governor Blagojevich and Senate President Emil Jones indisputably, House Speaker Mike Madigan at least to some people, Jones' right-hand man Sen. Rickey Hendon, Cook County Board President Todd Stroger and so on). And Jones, one of the buttheads-in-chief, was Obama's mentor in the state senate, and Stroger, the most incompetent of the whole bunch, was endorsed by Obama in his election bid. The fact that Obama was a very good state senator who probably did more reform work in a day than his mentor Jones has done in his entire career doesn't really register with a lot of suburban and rural folk here; again, all they see is "Chicago Democrat."

Look for those Illinois numbers to remain underwhelming if, as I expect, the governor and state legislature continues to deadlock over everything and our federal matching funds for transportation get released to other states.

Yeah, Howard Dean is a really good strategist. That's why he lost like 48 states in the primaries when he ran in 2004.

Obama should contest ND, MT, and AK though as it will force McCain to spend money defending what should be automatic GOP states.

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Yeah, Howard Dean is a really good strategist. That's why he lost like 48 states in the primaries when he ran in 2004.

Well, no - he lost because the press is obsessed with trivialities and got wood over the so-called "Dean Scream." Nothing to do with strategy.

And then there's the little matter of the 2006 elections. Think Dean's 50-state strategy might have made a difference there?

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