Poll: Obama's Lead Slips In Michigan
Another poll shows Obama's lead slipping a bit in a key swing state. The new numbers from Public Policy Polling, as compared to those in June:
Obama: 46% (48%)McCain: 43% (39%)
The pollsters say that McCain's gain is fueled partly by his improvement among white voters. McCain has turned what was a small edge for Obama into a 10-point lead among them, 50%-40%.
The poll comes after another recent one found McCain making gains in Michigan and two other key states, Colorado and Wisconsin. Clearly, the conventional wisdom that McCain's campaign is struggling isn't being borne out by these numbers.
Advertisement
Comments (48)
Hmm. Frack.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 30, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, and maybe that gas ad that everyone found so hilariously bad is actually having an effect.
July 30, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd bet the house it's the gas thing. McCain blankets the airwaves in these states with an "Obama is stealing your gas" ad, Obama takes a while to counter and when he does, it's an ad about fast tracking alternative energy. (among other things) I liked the ad but I'm not a lower income voter in Michigan. It did a good job of mocking the McCain camp's claim that Obama and Obama alone is the reason for high gas prices, but it offered no concrete solutions - at least none that would appeal to the low info, low income, busy, struggling to get by voter. The drilling thing is simple and easy to explain - there's oil out there, we're not tapping it, the Dems are preventing us from doing so. At the surface level, it's all true. In fact, of course, there's a lot more nuance to the issue and any price reduction would be years in the future - if there is any reduction at all. But you can't convey that in a 30-second spot. Actually, you can't convey that to most voters, period.
You could hammer the GOP/Bush for the fact that gas prices have risen substantially under McCain's newest BFF, Bush. You could argue that the Iraq War not only didn't decrease gas prices but actually increased them. You could talk about how Big Oil is making money hand over fist as a result of these high prices. And most voters will likely agree. But those are causes, not solutions. And when people are hurting, they want solutions that are easy to understand and (sound like they) are easy to deliver.
This gas thing is going to be a tough nut to crack for the Dems...and you can bet that the GOP will demagogue the crap out of it. Prices are falling, though. If a gallon is down to, say, $3.25 (on average) in September, simply because of reduced demand (imagine that, we use less and the price drops!) and the usual seasonal re-adjustment, it may not be that big an issue. The economy will still be an issue, obviously, but gas price anxiety may recede. But we can't hope that happens. Need an effective, realistic and easy-to-explain counterargument and policy.
July 30, 2008 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Crikey, democrats always underestimate the power of stupidity.
July 30, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hesitate to contribute to horse race myopics before Labor Day at the earliest but Pollster has it at 47-41 trending Obama including this poll
July 30, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
At least Obama is still ahead.
I never believed the first poll in the first place since this was always a tight race in Michigan.
It's time that Obama hits McCain with EVERYTHING that he has.
July 30, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, sometimes their own.
July 30, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not good news, to be sure, but I take these snapshot polls with a mountain of salt. Obama hasn't campaigned aggressively against McCain's trade position yet, so that will definitely help.
But the bigger picture is beginning to really worry me. After the FISA debacle, a Kaine VP selection (taken w/my meagre finances) effectively puts the kibbosh on any further contributions to Obama, Inc.
Really, what does choosing a right-to-life, anti-stem cell research, gay basher suggest about who Obama would appoint to the Supreme Court?
I'll certainly vote for Obama and encourage others to do so. But really, is this a cause that our scarce liberal/progressive dollars should be asked to finance?
Why exactly did we support Obama over Hillary? As much as Hillary has hedged on big issues like abortion - speaking of the need to increase adoption, for example, after the elevation of Roberts and Scalia - could anyone here imagine her selecting a right-to-life VP?
A Kaine selection represents nothing less than a subversion of decades of hard fought, hard won (for the time being) victories of liberal/progressive political organization. We can ill afford to surrender our power to an autocrat who would flout our many years of hard work.
July 30, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
We can sit here and whine or we can DO something. I call on ALL who truly believe in Democracy to hold WaPo to account for the purposeful quote cropping it did to further the "arrogance" meme surrounding Obama. I call on ALL who truly believe in Democracy to hold McCain to account for lying on the public airways.
Editors need to be called, NOT simply e-mailed. Lawyers need to be consulted to file suits against these Corporate Media whores for libel.
It is NOT enough for Obama and his surrogates to respond, it is NECESSARY for organizations to be held to account.
July 30, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, the Obama campaign doesn't seem to understand what it needs to do to push back against this WaPo-type bs.
So you're right, it's up to individuals rather than the candidate who has raised over a quarter-billion to get the word out. Pathetic.
July 30, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
WaPo today. They are backing up Obama and questioning McCain.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/29/AR2008072902286.html?sid=ST2008072902360&pos=
July 30, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
What about today's latest chestnut courtesy of Mr. Jonathan Weisman?
Sure, the WaPo, along with the rest of the MSM, can air bs attacks as news, discussing them for a few days while they gather momentum, only pulling back as needed to preserve a modicum of credibility.
Obama needs to get at this shit far earlier and more aggressively than he has. This way, he can turn McCain's bs against him and make McCain, for once, an area of focus in this campaign. And you know the McCain people would not like that at all.
July 30, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen to this.
July 30, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Temporary. Wisconsin is definitely Obama. These numbers change with the wind. The real numbers will be after the conventions.
July 30, 2008 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I ain't one of those who say "do it now" but yes, "do it now." While, we're far off from seriousness, it's time for Obama to take the blinds off and start atleast defending McCain attacks.
Right now the old scum is given a freepass to paint any picture of Obama he wants. Apparently, McCain attack tactics are working to an extent.
July 30, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two points:
1) I lived in Michigan for years and have always thought that McCain would be very competitive there (much more so than Bush).
2) That said, I still expect Obama to win. This poll does not surprise me at all. I expect our victory in MI to be narrow but real. We cannot let our guard down, but I still expect us to take the Wolverine State.
July 30, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michigan is more rust belt than anyone realizes.
July 30, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who said White Men Can't Jump?
Look at the poll. Obama is losing Whites, specifically white men, like rats on a sinking ship. A 12 point movement is big and well beyond an error.
WTF is going on in MI that has all these White Men jumping?
July 30, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Read the reactions on Huffington Post. Everyone thinks this is ridiculous, the whole ad campaign. I think these numbers are 'for the moment' only.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/30/mccain-ad-links-paris-hil_n_115841.html
July 30, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
HuffPo and us here (along with a host of other sites) are essentially echo chambers. Many of us don't watch the MSM so we really don't see what is going on outside of our isolated blogosphere.
McCain isn't seen as the putz we believe him to be and Obama isn't the next great president that many here believe he will be. McCain is the straight talking lovable war hero and Obama is the unknown presumptuous rockstar.
July 30, 2008 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
While much of the attacks don't hold water, surely the offshore drilling meme is playing well. C'mon Obama, it's time to do a few more strong ads to let people know the realities and perils of Offshore drilling.
July 30, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Note:
The previous PPP poll was taken shortly after the Gore endorsement in Michigan. That poll probably showed a "Gore bump" that faded.
July 30, 2008 12:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, Rove is helping McCain. Rove has just been held in contempt. Please sign petition link and let's get rid of his ass!
http://sendkarlrovetojail.com/
July 30, 2008 12:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Chuck Todd was right last night, no polls should be considered until after the 1st debate, when many will be taking their first hard look at both candidates.
July 30, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I also think Obama's lack of visits to the Midwest has been for a reason.
Feingold (or some other Midwesterner) for VP?
July 30, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, this is to be expected when you have two candidates running as Republicans.
Let's see, McSame is trying to run both to the right AND the left of Bush, while Obama immediately abandoned any thoughts of actually running to the REAL center of the country (the left), and instead has been running like hell to the "center" as defined by the DC pundits.
Two Republicans...po-tay-to:pa-tah-to.
July 30, 2008 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michigan and Colorado close? Maybe McCain will choose Romney to put them both over the top to his side.
July 30, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he picks Romney, he might lose the all important snake-handler vote (evangelicals, not log-cabin Republicans).
Given his history of playing both sides of every issue, McCain will have a hard time choosing ONLY one running mate. Perhaps conjoined twins are the answer.
July 30, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am getting really frustrated by Obama's lack of muscular ads. I think that is what is hitting him in the polls. People like to see assertiveness. There are so many possibilities:
The theme of McShameless essentially lying and trying to smear Obama's character, using quotes from several papers about how the claims are false and dishonorable;
McCain's record on women including his votes against SCHIP and free choice;
McShameless' sorry record on vets despite his exaggerated claims compared to Obama's record;
McC's flipflopping clearly to pander despite his claims of integrity.
There is a wealth of potential attacks but none forthcoming. The latest ad is really tepid.
July 30, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree and I really do not see how an ad highlighting McCain's dismal record on any number of issues can be seen as an "attack" ad per se.
July 30, 2008 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or how about raising the specter of the Keating Five? Is Obama waiting to bring out the heavy artillery after the conventions?
If so, this is a risky strategy. McCain's campaign draws straight from the Rove playbook: negative early, positive late. If McCain can stay within 6-8 pts. of Obama until the end of the conventions, he remains viable, hence the barrage of negative ads.
McCain has given Obama all the ammunition he needs to color McCain an angry, pessimistic liar without tarnishing the Barack, Inc. brand. But Obama just won't do what it takes.
July 30, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is still summer folks. People's opinion will change once Obama engage McCain in full gear. Michigan's political system is going through a problem right now. The Democratic mayor of Detroit is going through his own scandal and the governor is not that popular.
Obama need to really establish his grand operations in the state. He needs to get out of this DC bubbles and focus his attention on the bread butter issues. I’ll suggest he stays in Chicago for the rest of the campaign. Nothing good comes out of DC.
July 30, 2008 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Margin of error 3.3% and a poll of less than 1000? I wouldn't panic just yet.
If you see a 5 point swing, thats when you start to panic.
Has he been to Michigan lately? A few campaign stops will eliminate that insignificant shift.
July 30, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd point out that fivethirtyeight.com has an interesting piece up this morning that shows where each campaign is spending their money.
It isn't surprising that Michigan is a closer race these days since McCain is spending and campaigning harder in that particular state.
July 30, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
New poster here, but a long time reader.
Sorry, but I am not buying this poll for one minute, in fact I am sick of hearing about the polls altogether as they tend to categorize people into "groups" of who Senator Obama might be having problems with. Now think of this for a moment, the latest talking point from Faux is he is having trouble with women over 40 (white women), and as an Obama campaign worker here in Michigan I can tell you that most of the women I come into contact with who are middle age (I am 46 BTW....and white) tend to be multi taskers, carry cell phones and feel very enthusiastic about Senator Obama, just how are the pollsters calling the many people without land lines when those very same people dumped their land lines and went with a cell only?
Then you have the younger people who are registering for the first time and can't wait to vote and this election seems very important to them because in this town they have seen their parents lose jobs they have held for years and the war is still an issue as many of them have friends that could not find a job and the military was the only option. Oh, and as for the many cell phones they carry they are the prepaid, so I don't think any of them would waste their minutes answering a call that is "unknown" or a pollster survey.
I was at the speech Senator Obama gave here in Michigan at Kettering University in Flint, people started to arrive at 5:00 a.m to stand in line to get free tickets to the event, by 8:00a.m the lines stretched around two blocks and people had to be turned away as the University couldn't accomodate everyone. There is excitement here for Senator Obama for all races and ages, can the McCain camp say the same? I don't think so.
July 30, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Welcome hopeforward.
Thanks for the on-the-ground report, and thanks for your hard work.
July 30, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
In 6 of the last 8 elections, the Republican nominee has done better in the November popular vote than he was doing in midsummer national polling. Something to keep in mind.
If McCain picks up blue Michigan he wins, so Romney is his logical VP pick regardless of evangelical qualms about a Mormon (what are upset evangelicals gonna do? -- vote for the son of a Muslim father and an atheist mother whose spiritual mentor for 20 years begged God to damn America?)
July 30, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
As a white man, I feel I'm qualified to state that white men are idiots.
July 30, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee Greg:
I just consulted the 'Swing State' Poll Graphs over at Pollster.com. Here's what they indicate:
OBAMA GAINING OR INCREASING LEAD:
FLORIDA
INDIANA
ARIZONA
NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
MONTANA
ARIZONA (!!!!)
McCAIN LEADING OR GAINING:
NORTH DAKOTA
COLORADO
NEVADA
WISCONSIN is not a 'Swing State'. All polls currently have Obama INCREASING his lead over McCain (again, Pollster.com combined poll graph for state)
You know, Greg, you might want to look up the definition of the word 'cherry-picking'. Perhapos you can even land a job at Gallup doing their 'Likely Voter' "Scenario" polls.
In short - this blog entry really makes you look partisan - and less than intelligent.
July 30, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh you Obamabots will change the polls to your favor no matter what. Your empty suit is falling and this is just the beginning of his slide. America is slowly but surely waking up to his lies and arrogance. I especially love the new Ludicruis Obama rap song. You know the one where he is calling Hillary a bi-tch and that McCain should be paralyzed in a chair and where he is calling women Ho's. The best part is that just a couple months ago Obama stated in Rolling Stone magazine that Ludicruis is one of his favorite rap stars and that he is a great talent and businessman. Of course today he denounced Ludicruis . Thats what your man does . Gosh I hope Obama's tour bus of change is huge. He has thrown so many people under it and I am sure there is more to come. Just keep an eye on the polls , your Obama ship is sinking.
July 31, 2008 12:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Racist.
July 31, 2008 7:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why does this country detest intelligence? why do they insist on electing intellectual neanderthals like bush and Mccain?
July 30, 2008 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama needs to run some harder campaigns against McCain...The only time I see "attack ads" is when they are coming from McCain...It's reminding me of Kerry a la 2004.
July 30, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
boomer:
Really?
Obama has not run a single attack ad - and has a 5-6 composite lead in the major polls.
WHy would he go negative if McCain's negative ads are not working?
And at a time when 99 out of 100 people are paying no attention whatsoever?
July 30, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only proving once more that America is still a racist country and Republicans are still racist scum.
July 30, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Powkat,
This has nothing to do with race. Heck, I would vote for a black, tan even orange candidate if he was the right candidate to lead America. The facts are Obama is not that candidate. Every politican flip-flops, everyone, but I have never seen someone flip flop so much as Obama. I have never seen someone throw so many people under a bus who were once his 'mentors'/friends . I have never seen such arrogance. More importantly Obama has no experience, he is not ready to protect this country, his views are so radical they are frightening. He is frightening. So, don't call Americans racist, call Obama wrong for America.
July 31, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, you're pretty much just a racist.
July 31, 2008 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
UhOh! I think I sense some twitching and squirming in Osamaland!
When their savior should be up by 15-20 he is falling fast.
After the debates and fall campaign ads begin in earnest, and the American people become truly engaged, Osama doesn't have a chance.
I have to admit though, checking in here and at HufPO and seeing the panic gives great joy......almost like a tingle running up my leg!
The hatefulness of Obama supporters during this entire campaign toward all other points of view is coming back to bite them in the a$$.
Have a nice day!
July 31, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink