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Poll: Obama Takes Narrow Lead In Florida
Barack Obama might just be taking a narrow lead in the big swing state of Florida, a new Rasmussen poll suggests -- a state where John McCain has been expected to do a lot better all throughout this year.
The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the ±4.5% margin of error. In Rasmussen's last poll from almost a month ago, McCain had a seven-point lead. Obama's favorable and unfavorable numbers now stand at 51%-47%, a big improvement from his 44%-53% favorables a month ago.
Most recent polls have given McCain the lead here, but it's a close one.
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Comments (19)
Rassmussen's world is a strange one in which Bush's approval rating is as high as 32%.
July 23, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I still think that Florida still leans McCain - but it's good news.
It also calls into question the Ohio poll even more, it wouldn't add up that Ohio would see such a dramatic shift that hasn't been seen in other battlegrounds.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 23, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unless McCain is blanketing Ohio with lying ads about gas prices and drilling and not running many in Florida because he thinks he's a lock in that state. Rasmussen's poll still indicates that a majority of Floridians are behind "offshore drilling". (Although, like his other polls, I question Rasmussen's phrasing of the question.)
July 23, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen's poll may indicate that, but as a Floridian I hafta tell them that their methodology is WAYYYY off. We live and die by tourism (i.e.- Beaches) down here, and McCain screwed himself good w/ his offshore drilling flop. Maybe they were asking the farmers out in the sticks, and built their whole poll around that, but from where I sit (Tampa-St. Pete, south end of the I4 corridor) almost no one I've heard from, or talked to, thinks the offshore gamble is anything but a payday for the oil barons. I expect to see a lot more movement in Florida, tho it does still lean Republican.
July 23, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Legislation was passed last year that any drilling off the coast of Florida had to be outside a 250 mile boundary. Don't know if that was on the east or west coasts or both. I have observed some letters to the editor that indicate some Floridians buy into the notion that it's better we get the oil than China, and that drilling off our coast will provide immediate relief in prices. It's hard to turn those people around.
July 23, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get Off My Lawn! Damn kids!
July 23, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Rasmussen has Obama up 2 in Florida and down 10 in Ohio. Does that pass the smell test?
July 23, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't all that surprising with our economy in the tank. Crist being floated as possible VP isn't helping much either. He's turned out to be an empty suit who's so concerned about being liked he won't make decisions to bring about much-needed reforms because it might offend someone. I can't speak for other Floridians, but the thought of Crist assuming the duties of POTUS in an emergency is almost as scary as the thought of McCain in the WH.
July 23, 2008 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Could Obama lose Ohio but win Florida?
Hmmmm...
July 23, 2008 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
No.
July 23, 2008 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is no way McCain is up by 10 in OH and down by 2 in FL, as Rasmussen indicates. He's a good pollster but something stinks in these numbers.
I wish SurveyUSA would hurry up and put out some numbers for OH, FL, and PA.
July 23, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the OH and FL numbers must have been flipped in an alcohol-fueled lab accident.
July 23, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
ras is crazy with these polls i don't think obama is up fl and i can't see how they have mccain up so high in ohio....................
July 23, 2008 1:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
We really need a PA poll to validate the Ohio numbers. By supporting drilling McCain may have sacrificed Florida for Ohio but the key question is if it helped in Pennsylvania as well.
July 23, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am also suspicious of these numbers, but here's a thought.
Obama didn't campaign in Florida during the primary. So it makes sense that he should be gaining ground there. (He has gained ground everywhere, once his organization gets established and people get to know him better.)
Obama did campaign in Ohio, and he lost there. If there is any place in the country where some of the Hilleriods might just be bitter enough to *say* they are voting for McCain, it would be Ohio (and, perhaps, Pennsylvania).
So, based on that, I think it is possible, at least, that Obama could do better in Florida than in Ohio. At least this early. In a poll.
Just a thought -- not saying I know this is the reason, but it seems plausible to me.
-- ARG
July 23, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Guess this won't be one of those years, where Republicans are making fun of Jews not being able to navigate butterfly ballots!
July 23, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
These numbers are not as off as you might think.
There was a Florida polling firm (similiar to Insider Advantage) that did a statewide matchup about a week and a half ago. The results were Obama 47% and McCain 45%. Also the not so trusted ARG put out a Florida poll yesterday that had McCain ahead 47% to 45% for Obama.
So Florida is indeed a close contest. I live here in Florida and there are many people who you would think are for McCain but tell me they favor Obama. Florida is not as Southern as you might think and to dismiss Obama's chances is a mistake.
July 23, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure about the rest of Florida, but here in Sarasota County, I'm seeing a whole lot of Obama bumper stickers than I am McCain stickers.
July 23, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
McSame has been running a ton of ads in Ohio, but Obama has kept pace, although not as many. McSame runs heavy on the Fox affiliate in Columbus, but less so on the NBC affiliate.
There is no way that McBush is up by 10 in Ohio.
Moreover, in my view, there is no way McSame is up in Ohio, period.
July 23, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink