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Poll: Obama Struggling With Older Women

Check out this interesting polling from Pew Research that goes into a fair amount of detail about a much-discussed topic: How Obama is faring with female voters.

On the down side, the poll warns that Obama is faring worse with older women than his two Dem predecessors:

Obama is falling short with some segments of the women vote. In particular, he currently polls considerably worse than his predecessors among all women age 65 or older. About one-third (35%) in this group support Obama, while 42% support McCain. In June 2000, Gore enjoyed a 53%-to-36% lead among women over 65, while in June 2004, Kerry held a more modest 48%-to-43% lead. Currently, nearly one-quarter of women 65 and older (23%) remain undecided about whom to support or say they will vote for another candidate, more than double the share that said that was the case at this point in 2004 (9%) and 2000 (11%).

Even among older women voters who identify themselves as Democrats, significant numbers have yet to declare their support for their party's presumptive nominee. While Obama has a solid 69%-to-12% advantage over McCain among Democratic women over 50, nearly one-in-five (19%) remain undecided or would vote for another candidate. By comparison, just 4% of older Democratic men are undecided.

This isn't terribly surprising, given what happened in the primary. So how big a problem is this? It's unclear. The poll finds that Obama is doing well with women overall: He has a double-digit lead over McCain with them, 51%-37%, which is up considerably from May. And his lead among women is higher than that enjoyed by both Gore and Kerry at the same point in their races.

Still, the older female demographic is certainly one the Obama campaign will be trying to improve among in the weeks and months ahead.


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It truly is amazing the change America has gone through in the last 60 years. Think about it; segregation used to be the law of the land. Old people grew up in a MUCH different country then young people.

This poll doesn't suprise me a bit. What surprises me is the reluctance some old people show for voting for one of their own (McCain.)

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I'm pretty comfortable that they'll come home by November. It takes time.

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Just matching up a demo group to compare to how past Dems performed in that group isn't overly constructive, since we know he is going to way over perform amongst other groups than Kerry or Gore.

It raises the danger of us turning a CNN anchor focused excessively on one group vs. another.

Having said that, two ways to correct this "problem":

1) Go visit his grandmother

2) SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL SECURITY!!

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

Interesting. That means he must really be cleaning up among younger women.

My wife and I when we travel conduct our own poll of voter preferences by tracking the number of bumper stickers and logging which candidate they are for. We traveled last weekend in NC for 6 six hours and the totals were: Obama 254 - McCain 1...

I don't know about you but that tells us that NC will be in play for Obama and we are this far out from the election. Anybody seeing alot of McCain bumper stickers?

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I don't know if it qualifies as a McCain bumber sticker but I recently saw a bumper sticker that declared, "My other car is a dinosaur."

Does that qualify?

I also saw one that said, "Honk if you just pooped your pants." That one I'm pretty sure is a McCain bumper sticker.

I have seen one or two McCain stickers here in St. Louis. More shocking to me is the number of people who STILL have Bush/Cheney '04 stickers on their vehicles!! I would be embarrassed to ride in such a vehicle at this point, much less own one . . .

Bush/Cheney voters tend to be utterly unaware of the world around them, so don't expect them to remember what is stuck to their bumpers.

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Actually we display them proudly...getting a rise out of you guys is just gravy.

I'm not sure pity counts as "a rise".

I have seen (in all of St Louis) a total of two McCain bumber stickers. I would not care to count the number of Obama stickers I have seen. I have actually seen more Ron Paul stickers than McCain stickers. That said, everyone knows that Obama will win St Louis - the question is whether his margins here will be enough to overtake McCain's margins outstate. I have not traveled outstate recently, so I cannot comment on how many McCain stickers are showing up in Kirksville or Hannibal or Iron Mines (etc).

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I see more bumper stickers for Hillary, Kerry, and even W around the SF bay area than I see for McCain. Obama stickers, on the other hand, are everywhere!!! Yard signs too.

More indications of the enthusiasm gap between the campaigns.

I've remarked elsewhere that I've only seen one McCain bumper sticker here. Still a few Cheney-Bush '04's, but just one understated McCain sticker.

I have seen several "Nobama" and caricatures of Obama with the circle slash, but a relative handful compared to the Obama stickers. But you've also got to remember there was no real Republican primary here. The real anecdotal leather hits they highway after the convention and the the Candidate/Running Mate stickers are printed.

I did the same thing on a recent trip to Indiana.

Obama had about 50, McCain 0

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We saw two McCain bumper stickers last night in Denver and commented on it because that was more than we'd seen in months. We see Obama stickers quite regularly

Of course, we also saw a "Limbaugh/Coulter" sticker last night, so maybe it just had something to do with the full moon.

What it tells me is that you and your wife are both bores who have nothing to say to each other.

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..or they share their passion for politics...I think it's cute.

Asshole much?

I'm seeing a lot of beat-up pickups and big SUV's with "W O4" on them. Does McCain have bumper stickers? Haven't seen one.

That's one of the most interesting things. I've yet to see a vehicle with a W sticker updated w/McCain. Buyers remorse, Republicans?

meant as a reply to the guy with the mask

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I live in Austin TX and recently saw a car with, "Ex Navy Seal for Obama," written in big letters on the back window.

I liked it!

I like the "Gas was $1.46 when Bush took office" stickers myself.

$1.46!!!!

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Yep $1.46 and it was $2.15 When Harry and Nancy took over, an increase of 47% over 6 years. Now it's $4.12 ...wow an icrease of 47%....but it only took Nancy and her boy 2 years what took Bush 6...you guys do rock!

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In my rush to give you credit I cheated you it's risen 91%

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A bit off topic, perhaps, but saw a bumper sticker in the parking garage at work yesterday that made me laugh so hard:

At least in Vietnam, Bush had an exit strategy

I think that one qualifies as an Obama supporter...

catholics and seniors, pretty much obama's only "problem" demographics. many catholics are coming around. not too worried about it...

seniors- vote your economic interests, and those of your grandchildren, vote OBAMA 08!

I am still not convinced that we Catholics count as a demographic. I have never seen any evidence to convince me that there is an explanatory power in noting that a voter is or is not a Catholic. Blue collar white Catholics vote just like the blue collar white non-Catholics. Black Catholics vote just like black non-Catholics. Upper-income Catholics vote just like upper-income non-Catholics. Et cetera and so forth. When we say that Obama is struggling among Catholic voters, I think what we really mean is that he is struggling among those demographics which happen to include a lot of Catholics (i.e. hispanics and blue collar whites), but really the Catholicism of those voters has nothing to do with it. He was struggling with Hispanic Baptists just as much as he was with Hispanic Catholics until recently, and now he is not really struggling with either.

I agree with you, however, that those blue collar white Catholics (and their non-Catholic confreres in the same demographic) will come around to Obama in time (or at least the ones at all likely to vote democratic will). The AFL-CIO have only recently endorsed, but they are moving flex their endorsement muscle and that will surely help in coming weeks.

I'm not sure. I'm a Catholic in the heart of a 28%er (Bush supporter) parish, but I'm hearing something of a return to traditional Catholic values that Obama speaks to nicely. Despite a more conservative pope, we're reminded in this parish at least to care for and be of service to our fellow man, rather than to judge, or to focus only on abortion.

Even if Catholics are a distinct voting group (and you make a good case otherwise), I don't know that they would be a problem for Obama in the current environment.

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I've seen Obama stickers, the odd W 04 sticker, and no McCain stickers. Yesterday, I saw the first Obama yard sign.

That said, I'm beginning to wonder about comparisons between 2008 and 2004 and whether they're valid. I guess we'll know on November 5.

I, too, struggle with older women. They usually win. I have a small frame.

Thanks for the huge laugh here with your post!

I read that headline and immediately thought of Obama taking on Python's Hell's Grannies.

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... nearly 19% [of Dem women over 50] remain undecided or would vote for another candidate.  By comparison, just 4% of older Democratic men are undecided.

By comparison???  Comparing (undecided plus another candidate) against undecided?  Feh.

The older woman who are still undecided or having trouble backing Obama are the second wave feminists who desperately wanted to see a woman President in their lifetime and probably hold it against Obama that he beat Hillary. Also now with the "McCain is old" belief they are probably additionally feeling ignored/isolated or even attacked. So upstart Obama defeats a woman now is battling an old timer like them so it's hard for them to warm to Obama.

Unfortunately I'm sure there is some level of "back in the day" racism at play as well.

That or they question his politics or ability to lead the country...

A lot (not all) of old women are just plain nasty.

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Two theories on why older Dem women aren't warming up to Obama:

a) Many of these women lived through a time when women weren't nearly as empowered as they are now. Hillary - ie, a woman president - was a potential dream come true for them. And whether it was real or not, they were probably more likely to detect/perceive sexism coming out of the Obama camp. They're still smarting from the (for them) devastating primary loss. Some may be stating that they will voting for McCain but I'd bet the majority of them don't like either choice, hence the high undecideds among both Dem women over 50 (19%) and all women over 65. (23%) I'm thinking most of these Dem women will come home by November.

b) Because they grew up in a time when women weren't as empowered as they are today and also during a time when segregation was in full force, they likely didn't have a lot of exposure to black people in their formative years. Men were more likely to have contact with/exposure to blacks - especially black men - in the workplace, in the military, watching sports, etc. While they are not necessarily racist, a black guy as president might still strike them as a bit too "exotic" and maybe even a little scary. (remember Obama's story about his own grandmother)

My vote goes to "a", but I wouldn't discount "b" entirely.

Now, onto stickers. In my corner of NJ, I don't think I've seen a McCain sign or sticker yet. My county leans Republican and I'm sure many in my area will end up voting for McCain - but they're just not excited about it...and some may just stay home. I mean, McCain has no chance in NJ anyway (even some folks still insist it's a potential swing state) so why bother?

I live in a deep red state where a Bush bumper sticker on your car was practically required just to license it much less have you son chosen to be on a team or even to be included in anything social. Fox news is on everywhere here, even the gas stations, though one experimented a couple of weeks ago with CNN but, now they are back on Fox.

Now you can't find a Bush, much less McCain, bumper sticker if a hundred bucks were riding doing so.

Even people in this state are evolving. Not even the evangelicals are immune. I looks like their niche is quickly dissapearing anyway.

It drives me nuts when I keep hearing media say voters "still don't know Obama" but there's a lot of truth to that. I don't blame the candidate - rather voters' reluctance to do real homework and/or open up to the possibility of an Obama candidacy.

I know 50-something white Democratic women in the greater Chicago area who still say "I don't trust him." Though it's easy to label this as silent racism, I think a lot of it can be attributed to Obama's relative youth and a perception of inexperience. These are not ignorant women - rather white-collar professionals who simply don't follow politics. As a result, they've no idea of Obama's DC Senate record, let alone that in IL - even though they live and/or work in his hometown.

As for senior women, I think many in that age group still consider military service a big plus. This can be difficult for younger voters to swallow but it's also true.

All said, though, my 74-year-old mother is an ardent Obama supporter, as are all her women friends in San Antonio.

Know Hope

Those woman don't trust men in general or their own ability to judge a man trustworthy. Of course they don't trust him. They don't trust men.

As a demographic they are unreliable on many levels and at worst, a big distraction and waste of resourses and time if persued. I's a woman's only club after having their hopes raised by the possibility of electing someone they could trust emotionally, a woman. They are entitled. It's their reality. Accept it.

The campaign needs to drop it and let it alone. They aren't going to become a reliable source of funding nor a reliable vote. Best I can tell, they have already shifted their attention to other things happening in their lives and of those that do decide to vote and vote on issues, they will hold their noses and vote for Obama.

You're tone deaf if you have to keep trying to sell to someone who isn't buying. If what you have is interesting to them, you wouldn't have to "sell" in the first place. The first rule of sales is "DON'T SELL".

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Boy that was a horribly misogynistic over sweeping judgement. Why not just come out and say that all women over 65 are just crazy cat ladies?

Boiling this down to "don't trust men" says more about you than it does about the whole demographic under discussion.

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This "woman of a certain age," 2nd wave feminist, army brat has supported Obama from the beginning. And I know I'm not the only one.

Here's to hoping we're a sign of things to come!

Amen. I'm a middle-aged mother of three, who has been in the military family my entire life. My sons and I were all born overseas.

I contributed to Obama the day he announced his candidacy. My kids and I canvassed the neighborhood, and our whole family was able to shake hands with whom I pray will be our next president.

Some of them are never coming over. The hard fact is that, especially, but not exclusively, in the South, there are a lot of white 65+ women who are just deeply and viscerally frightened of black men. It was imbued in them from earliest childhood and many of them simply have no capacity to reason themselves past it or be reasoned with.

I've seen it and I've heard about it from others. Whenever you so much as mention the idea of an Obama presidency to one of them, they become almost aphasic with inchaoate fear--it's like they believe that the day he's inaugurated a vast secret army of gigantic black men will be unleashed for a Satanic orgy of rape and pillage and murder directed particularly toward old white women.

How many "Obama struggles to win amongst (hispanic vegans, gay bank tellers, name-your-subset-of-the-American-populace)" stories are really necessary?

I have yet to see one story on here, or any other news network, about how McCain does not have a shot in hell at winning the vote with people under 30 (or maybe under 40, for that matter), or how McCain has no shot to win amonogst those with college educations, etc.

I guess since Obama is clearly in the lead, and is clearly the better candidate running the better campaign, to keep it interesting, we have to see the occasional "Obama doesn't have it in the bag" story.

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You make a great point.

But don't hold your breath waiting for those stories about McCain. Whether it's fundraising, voter demographics, or race, it's always Obama who is "struggling".

No matter what the poll numbers say, some noodle head from CNN, MSNBC, Time, the New York Times, Newsweek, Rasmussen, etc, will tell us that there are "warning signs" for Obama.

The fact that Republican voters just aren't into McCain, that young voters swarm to Obama (young being anything lower than AARP age, if you ask me), that McCain is one of the most uninspiring speakers, even without being compared to Obama, the fact of pretty much you name it---we're not going to see stories about McCain struggling.

Or if they are, they're written, and then forgotten. His campaign is in disarray, and if it were Obama's campaign, it would be front page news, literally and figuratively.

No wonder people hate the media.

I don't think that demographic as a whole will ever be able to be read reliably by the campaign or the poles. Most 65+ women, white or other, are settled into their lives, generally only share their emtional life with other women and don't trust any man regardless of his intent, qualifications or honesty. (Often for good reasons.)

This is just as reflective of the reality that they don't generally trust their own judgment of men. They're reluctance to trust Obama so they can support him is a defensive reaction meant to protect themselves emotionally. Hillary was no threat because, like them, she is a woman.

My bet is that turnout will be low for this demographic and therefor, not much of a factor in the election. They would rather do nothing than choose a man and feel dissapoined by him. They certaintly aren't going to be a difference making source of funding. I think both campaigns have more important demographics to give attention too.

Besides, that demographic has already made it clear, over and over, that they won't participate. Why don't the big cheeses who are supposed to be so smart believe them when they say NO; after all doesn't NO means NO?

Shining a focused effort on them is a waste of time and resources.

Yeah, for me that headline conjured up an unfortunate image of a mud-wrestling session at a retirement home : : :

Meant to be a reply to Barney Fife's lament above!

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No wonder people hate the media.

Amen. The recent media navel-gazing on Iraq ("How could we have been so asleep at the wheel? We'll do better next time!") or Katrina ("Hey! Cool! We got our groove back!") was annoying, false, and way too short-lived.

All (not just alot) of commenters who disparage groups of people based on biological characteristics are nasty.

My comment above is a response to biglith.

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I feel for Obama . . . I struggle with my mother everyday.

I learned decades ago to just listen and accept her for all that she is. My Mom. Beyond that, I don't have a fucking clue of what else to do. :)

This thread is a bit discouraging--substitute about any other demographic for 65+ women and you'd be skewered for making these sort of comments. Before making generalizations, it would be much more helpful to break the demographic down quite a bit more. Many 65+ women have supported the progressive movement for years. The other characterization that's a little crazy making (not here so much) is that low income over 65+ means low education--that's just how it was in terms of earnings in available jobs for many of the age group. But read the "undecided" with caution--with attitudes out there, is it surprising that many 65+ women would prefer to keep their opinion in the ballot booth?

Well, they obviously didn't ask my white, 80+ yr. old mother and mother-in-law. They are so "in the tank" for Obama it's almost embarassing.

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I just took a big 16-state road trip out west. 15 of those 16 states voted for Bush. I saw 3 McCain stickers and about 100 Obama stickers.

The most Obama stickers were in Salt Lake City.

I was quite happy to see three Obama signs in Paducah, KY too.

I live in arch-Republican East Tennessee and have yet to see a McCain sticker. The other day at the grocery store I saw a car with TWO W stickers and another car with an Obama sticker.

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These old ladies really need to get a grip. Hillary didn't lose because she's a woman. She lost because Obama played the existing system better than she did. He would have beaten anyone who used the same old game plan. Do these women really think they will be better off with McCain in any way. He wants to raise the retirement age for social security. Do they know that? Despite his own advanced years, he would weaken the enforcement of age discrimination laws in the workplace. Do they know that? Perhaps the most disturbing thing about this typically reliable block of Dem voters is that their behavior reinforces the worse stereotypes about women as being petty, vindictive, and emotional in their decision making—sacrificing their own best interests to get even. The fact that women younger than 65 support Obama strongly gives hope that when this generation finally dies off, we will move into a world where more rational minds prevail.

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OK don't know why my comment was deleted yesterday - all I said was Obama has the votes, so the only reason they would send this letter is they need money. So I suggested they save $3 million by scrapping Obama's stadium idea, and they save a few more dollars by persuading Obama to opt back in to public financing, in which case he'll receive a bunch of taxpayer dollars and the extra fundraising can divert to House and Senate races.

But I guess that made the messiah look bad so the editors censored it.

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