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Poll: Obama Pulls Into Narrow Lead In Nevada
A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Barack Obama has moved into a narrow lead in the perennial swing state of Nevada, in line with his campaign's goal of aggressively advertising in Western states.
The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, John McCain was ahead by three points.
The key number: Obama has improved his showing among core Democrats, suggesting that there isn't much in the way of long-lasting damage from the long primary campaign. Obama now has 79% of core Dems, an improvement from 65% two months ago, and is comparable to McCain's 76% of core Republicans.
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NV is a perennial swing state?? I thought it was a pretty red state.
In any case, the state by state numbers just keep getting better.
NO COMPLACENCY ANYONE! Work for the man like he's 5 points down.
July 17, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is the mirror of WI. Both states are always really close but NV almost always winds up red by a handful of votes and WI always winds up blue by a handful of votes. So theoretically if a candidate could move the needle even a little, they could turn the state.
July 17, 2008 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clearly Obama has problems in Nevada.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 17, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO!!
July 17, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, Cokie Roberts. I agree that these numbers mean that Obama in particular, and Democrats in general, have major obstacles to overcome this election season.
July 17, 2008 11:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good day for Barack.
50 million. Staying Close in NC. Taking the lead in NV.
I couldn't find the Hispanic vote for the two canddates. That would be a good indicator.
July 17, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow obama didn't leave his house today yet we have all this good news........................
July 17, 2008 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
More Poll nonsense.
Here are the numbers that matter.
In November, 2004, there were 1,093,563 registered voters in Nevada. 442,142 were Republicans. 438,096 were Democrats.
Advantage Bush: 4,046
NB* Bush beat Kerry by 21,567 votes in 2004. 414,939 voted for Bush. 393,373 voted for Kerry.
As of June, 2008, there are 1,314,899 registered votes in Nevada. 487,685 are Republicans. 559,814 are Democrats.
Advantage Obama: 72,129
NB* Other parties registrations such as Green, Libertarian, Natural Law etc. total over 200,000.
****
TPM would really be doing a public service if it were to tabulate the 2004 Margins and 2008
July 17, 2008 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good analysis.
July 17, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
$52 million in June...
Winning in every poll...
Red states that would have been unthinkable in any other year suddenly in play...
That'll teach Obama to ignore Glen Greenwald!
July 17, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
BLACKJACK!
July 17, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS TERRIBLE NEWS FOR OBAMA!!!!
July 17, 2008 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
You know what's scary? That's how it's being spun.
http://www6.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20080717/Obama.Money/
Summary: Obama is in trouble now because, after such a great month, he has set "the bar" too high.
You can't make this shit up.
July 17, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops... this applies to the fundraising. Not the NV poll.
July 17, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to break 300 easy, well, as long as we don't screw it up by spending the next 4 months attacking Obama for not being a progressive superhero sent from the future to save humanity.
We'll have to settle for the best candidate we've had in decades, or potentially ever.
July 17, 2008 7:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's our job to make the media eat crow.
July 17, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Who believes that Nevada is a deeply red state?
Bush barely won it back in 2000 and 2004.
Good news, but Obama was leading Nevada by 12% back in February.
And Rasmussen shows the race tied nationally - again.
July 17, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you really think good God fearing Christian folk have been flocking to Las Vegas for jobs in the leisure and tourism sector? "Get the Heinekens in will you please, John." "Yes, darling, just as soon I'm finished buying more Mark Warner VP stock on Intrade."
The Clark County registrant numbers tell the story.
In November 2004, there were 306,711 registered Democrats in Clark county. Now, there are 410,659. That's an increase of 103,948 in 4 years. And you expect tens of thousands more by November, probably.
Forget quoting polls. Just keep on eye on the monthly registration numbers from the Nevada Secretary of State. Obama had a 72,129 advantage in June. I would expect that number to increase every month between now and November. That's the number to follow, not random polls conducted with several hundred potential voters.
July 17, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
National polls are as meaningless as the popular vote was in the primary.
July 17, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is up 8 in Michigan (Rasmussen).
July 17, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is up 8 in Michigan (Rasmussen).
July 17, 2008 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
there's a livestream of Howard Dean at Netroots Nation (re-named from yearlyKos) right now at Ustream.tv
Wesley Clark is opening right now:
here's the direct link to watch and live chat as well:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/exhibit-hall-4
Spread the word :-)
July 17, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am listening to it as I am typing this, this is fun!
July 17, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but a close Nevada poll result means that the race nationally is close as well.
July 17, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
what do you think the numbers will look like if you were to minus the 15% of the "just say no deal" folks?
July 17, 2008 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
so then this means that '...what happens in Vegas, stays in the White House.' hey works for me...i'll gamble on that line any day. we deserve it.
July 18, 2008 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
The flipflop on public spending and the enormous discrepancy in money raised between the McCain camp and the Obama team suggests a shift in the Democratic process. Could "contributing" to a campaign fund be more important than the act of voting? To the extent that the gigantic sum for June will be "invested" in mind-blitzing advertisements and, that this process may continue on till November, how legitimate will that vote be?
The voters in Pennsylvania resisted an all-out assault by Obama which was even criticized by journalists who had shown a marked bias towards him. It remains to be seen if Nevada voters can see through the Glitzkrieg of what is -- by the admission of Obama himself -- an "aggressive" advertising campaign. If that turns out to be the case the "Chicago insiders" will come under the same scrutiny Obama tried to turn on the Washington insiders and the flashy side of his camapign will begin to play against him.
Nader doesn't seem to think that the majority of Obama's funding is from individual voters close to the ideas of his platform. The future figures for July will prove if it's a question of "personal appeal" orchestrated by an "assertive" -- let's be euphmistic -- ad campaign ... or voters who are looking critically at the platform of the candidate and how he's changed it.
July 18, 2008 7:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keeping it close in Nevada.
July 18, 2008 8:27 AM | Reply | Permalink