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Poll: Obama Pulls Into Narrow Lead In Florida
Barack Obama's support has significantly risen in Florida -- a place where John McCain is thought to have an advantage -- to the point where he's taken the lead in a new poll.
The latest numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 46%, McCain 44%, within the ±3.6% margin of error. In their last poll from March -- taken right in the middle of the first Jeremiah Wright controversy -- Obama trailed 50%-39%.
For now, the polls are mixed on Florida. PPP, Quinnipiac and ARG have given Obama a narrow lead, while Rasmussen puts McCain ahead.
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I'm inclined to believe Ras. PPP has a horrible record in these big states, ARG is wrong by natural law, and Quinn is largely untested.
July 1, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm tired of Florida.
July 1, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP got NC right -- or at least more than SUSA and many other surveys.
July 1, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP also got the closest result in the Ohio primary. They had a very good record in the primaries - the only major call they blew was Pennsylvania.
July 1, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
But what if...that would be amazing!
July 1, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
But how could Obama be ahead in Florida if McCain has a 2-1 advertising advantage in Missoura?
July 1, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't that other PPP poll there, with Obama neck and neck with McCain in NC, at least as interesting. I would, of course, be delighted if we were to win FL, but I would be just as delighted if we were to win NC.
July 1, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Having an African-American win the state that sent Jesse Helms to the Senate for so many years (and Launch Faircloth for six) is much, much more redeeming than winning the state that got Democrats into the current mess.
July 1, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
More good news. Now this is good. You know even if he doesn't pull in florida, the fact that he is neck and neck bodes well for the status of the election over-all. I really am surprised that it is this close and he barely has done anything in florida yet. Amazing.
July 1, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought Rasmussen was conducted in connection with Fox. If that's true, I'll just look to fivethirtyeight for the averages.
July 1, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is funny because fivethirtyeight has a partnership with Rasmussen.
July 1, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, everybody see the ny poll. 57 to 37 obama. But, but, but I thought he needed clinton on the ticket to pull in ny. Yeah, right.
July 1, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Honestly, I rather wonder why so many outfits continue to poll NY. There were no fewer than four polls conducted in NY by major polling firms in the month of June. Contrast that with Missouri (a genuine swing state) which saw only two polls by major polling firms in the same time period. Why waste funds to answer a question to which everyone already knows the answer (who will win in NY?), while leaving another question which many are eager to explore (who will win MO?) largely untouched?
July 1, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with that observation. Also, polling ny and a state like cali is probably more expensive than polling states like missouri. Why not poll the battlegrounds more. It's cheaper and you would probably get more fluid and changing interesting results.
July 1, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't seen that O/C ticket argument for NY. But certainly for MA and NJ.
Anyway, I've a feeling Obama is not putting all his chips on FL. If McCain can't pull FL, he better quit now.
July 1, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your point about mcbush and florida is why this poll is huge and shows the problems that mcbush is having big time. Florida should be polling much better for him right now and it isn't. That speaks volumes. Also, add in the fact that florida is the native home of PUMAs, as pointed out by 538, and obama is probably actually in much better shape. This really is huge. If obama should open up a double digit lead in florida, it could be lights out for mcbush.
July 1, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate polls - but the ones that look like this make me do a happy dance I have to admit.
July 1, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP has been one of the best pollsters. This is encouraging news for Obama.
It's funny how many bloggers are saying Obama should skip FL because of one Rasmussen poll even though three other pollsters (PPP, Qpac, ARG) have him very competitive there.
July 1, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hate to say I told you so, McCain. While I wouldn't say that Obama is actually ahead down here, I will say that Florida is gonna be a toss-up this year. McCain screwed himself pretty good with the offshore drilling switcheroo. We live and die by tourism down here, & the specter of blackened beaches, and dead game-fish scares hell out of folks from every political party. Alot of businesses would like to get into the Cuban markets, as well, and McCain's stance on that thorny issue is only gonna help him with, like, 300 crazy old men in Miami.
July 1, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I will say that Florida is gonna be a toss-up this year.
I'd love to agree with you. But you know it's FL, one state I wish was not in the union in 2000. It's a tailor-made state for McCain. I don't mean Obama shouldn't compete in FL, but please no FL hopes again.
July 1, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind that PPP (D), a Democratic-affiliated pollster, is so bad that even though it is based in Raleigh it was waaaayyy off in predicting the NC primary.
Having lived in FL long ago, I can assure you that Obama will not win FL unless he is winning anational landslide. The demos in FL are not good for him -- older white women, Cubans, Jews, rednecks, and veterans.
July 1, 2008 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just checked on this, PPP actually nailed NC: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html
July 1, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dr Zaius: not only are you wrong about PPP - which did the best job of calling NC, IN, and OR of any of the larger pollsters - but you are also wrong in the demographics you've listed as "bad" for Obama. The only group there that polls better for McCain is "rednecks." With every other group you note, Obama does better. It's only white men with whom McCain polls ahead, so if that's your only evidence that Florida is a sure thing for McCain, I'm not convinced.
However, I do think you're probably right about the state being Republican territory on the whole. I just think it's Pubs for reasons other than "older white women, Cubans, Jews, ... and veterans." At least according to all the polling I've seen, more of them are voting Dem this year. :-)
July 2, 2008 1:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Um, if three polls say someone is ahead, and one poll says he's behind, that's not mixed polling results. That's one poll being an outlier from the rest.
Of course, one of the three polls is ARG, which is about as reliable as a group of monkeys throwing crap at a board full of random numbers, so it's really two polls to one. But still.
July 1, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's probably neck and neck and at this point in time that is an awesome result for florida. He's done little campaigning in florida and is only getting his operation up and running. Look out florida, this could be a landslide election.
July 1, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've mentioned this at other boards, and I'll do so right here.…
Missouri has the longest streak of voting for the president elect while others missed a beat here or there. It has done so since 1904 with the exception of 1956, when it went for Adlai Stevenson in his rematch against President Dwight Eisenhower.
I suppose if you consider 1904 and 1956 and the 52-year difference, you can go ahead and speculate that Missouri might not match up in voting for this year's presidential elect, 52 years after it's last "mistake." But I would not ignore this remarkable pattern.
If I was running for the presidency, I'd figure Missouri as a requirement for whatever other states are in my win column.
July 1, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's possible to find all sorts statistics like this for a variety of states, as Team Clinton did throughout the primary.
This misses the point. We have a melalin-enhanced male with the name of Barack Hussein Obama as the leading candidate to become the President right now. There's no precedent for that now is there?
The old "rules" and patterns are becoming irrelevant very quickly, with several already having been proven wrong. Sure, would be great to win MO, but certainly doesn't mean all "Hope" is lost if MO goes for McKeating.
We're here now, and we're dominating. Let's keep the pressure on, since we're gonna have ta win by a landslide to prevent any voting machine "irregularities" from stealing another election from us.
July 1, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
FWIW, the last 'Democrat' to win the White House without Missouri was John Q Adams in 1824 as a 'Democratic-Republican' when all four candidates that received electoral votes were from the same party.
This 184 year streak is twice as long as the Clinton touted 92 year streak of West Virgina.
July 1, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jessie Helms was from North Carolina.
But, still would be a significant victory!
July 1, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
NOTE TO JOHN McCAIN: Keep talking about offshore oil drilling!!!!!!
July 1, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a stat:
No melanin-enhanced person has ever won a U.S. Presidential election. Evah.
Might as well give up now...
July 1, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah that offshore drilling was a good idea McCain! Good thing you flipped flopped and sided with Bush on that.
July 1, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have nothing meaningful to say; just want to get my beautiful mug in front of the masses once again.
July 1, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah, but how many Poles could there be in Florida ???
/emily litella
July 2, 2008 1:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLANT NEWS!!!FOR McCAIN!!!!
July 2, 2008 2:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
One reason for the paucity of recent polls in Missouri:
Have you ever been in St. Louis in June.
Two big cities, traditional run by Democratic machines and everyone else rednecks. I think it's Obamas to loose.
July 2, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink