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Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Virginia
A new poll from Virginia suggests that Barack Obama is holding on to a narrow lead in this unlikely swing state, which Obama is making a major play for despite the fact that it hasn't voted Dem since 1964.
The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 46%, McCain 44%, within the ±2.7% margin of error, and consistent with other recent polls showing a close race.
The poll has McCain winning white voters by a 53%-36% margin, much narrower than George W. Bush's 68%-32% margin in 2004. Curiously, the poll also has Obama ahead 77%-16% among black voters, a margin that will likely grow by the time Election Day rolls around.
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Of the southern states, this one is far and away the most achievable gain for Obama.
Not saying it's done, just that it's most likely out of the possible southern states.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 23, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
16% is way too high of an African American vote for McCain in my state of Virginia. It gather that it will be in the low single digits.
July 23, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I gather"
July 23, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you - I can't imagine that being the number anywhere. I can't believe that McLame would get 7% of the AA vote. I just can't.
If they show me a fraction, then I might believe. But there is no damn way he gets 17% of that vote. No way - why should he? He has done nothing for AfricanAmericans. For that matter, McLame hasn't done shit for any voting demographic.
July 23, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
This total is entirely plausible, although that 16% of blacks for McCain seems almost absurd to me. There are black voters here in Virginia who will vote for John McCain, but they are rarer than that.
I predict 52% for Obama in Virginia on election night.
July 23, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry - me and numbers - I kept saying 17 and it's 16%.
I'm the same way with dates, alas.
July 23, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
because mccain voted against mlk holiday and obama running he will probably get low single digits from aa....
July 23, 2008 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
How would that turnout be if he picks Mitt "Who let the dogs out" Romney to the ticket?
July 23, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cue the concern trolls to remind us of the Wilder effect...
Seriously though, this is wonderful news. Good work, ye citizens of Virginia. I would be positively delighted to see us tip Virginia blue this year.
July 23, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget the citizens of Maryland and DC. We are organizing, mobilizing, and coordinating with our neighbors in VA so that we can maximize our impact and maximize their turnout. We will win VA in November.
July 23, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. I did not mean to slight the out of state volunteers. I tip my hats to them as well.
July 23, 2008 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
lol
these polls that keep coming out are fun, i love them. but they just are not accurate unless you take a bunch and average them and then match the CORRECT demographic strengths.
bush got 12% of blacks in 2004, so there is no way McCain improves on that.
McCain will be lucky to get 5% of blacks.
July 23, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Y'all are overly optimistic. For Obama to win Virginia, you'd need the following: plenty of money, a disciplined and aggressive campaign organization, lots of volunteers, a strong Dem senate candidate, a weak Rep senate candidate, and high African-American voter turnout.
See what I mean? Obama doesn't have a chance.
July 23, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hahahaha! This is on my list for post of the week, baby!
July 23, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I get your point. LOL. I think Mark Warner will drive a lot of votes home for Obama in parts of the state where BO isn't real known or popular but Warner is. Wish I still lived in Fairfax County this year. Don't know how much my vote will count, or even if they will count it, here in Georgia.
July 23, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
with bob barr on the ticket, GA is in the realm of possibility for obama, imho.
July 23, 2008 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
d'oh. i mean bob barr on the ballot not the ticket. he'd be a terrible veep choice.
July 23, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dunno, I think he might also need a state Republican Party that's become so ideologically rigid that it's throwing out experienced senior leaders for being insufficiently pure on taxes and abortion, and has responded to successive losses by demanding more purity. And there's no way... oh, wait! Virginia has that, too!
July 23, 2008 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't you guys get the memo,
only pro-GOP Rasmussen polls count or should be heeded.
Anything else is media-fawning over Obama.
July 23, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I'm from Virginia, and we've got Obama covered here. Kaine and Webb carried Prince William County in 2005 and 2006, respectively, feats that hadn't been accomplished since the 60s. They just opened one of the state's 20 Obama offices down the street from me.
July 23, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
The June poll from this place had 32% of Blacks voting McCain. So 16% is a big improvement.
Obama consolidated his Black base(increasing his edge by 25 points) On the flip side, he lost quite a bit of ground with Whites(losing 8 points) since June. It as of if he's adding Black voters at the expense of White ones.
Sure the margin in narrower than 2004, but the trend is not his friend when it comes to VA.
July 23, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was walking my dog about 9:30 Sunday night and was amazed to find Obama's Charlottesville campaign office not only open, but with seven or eight people hard at work. I stopped in to see if they had any bumper stickers (all out, I'm sad and happy to say) and was immediately drafted to take on a precinct for door-to-door voter registration. According to the campaign people, all it will take to win VA is one new Obama-favoring voter in every precinct. And, man, are they ever organized with boots on the ground!
July 23, 2008 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I stopped in to see if they had any bumper stickers (all out, I'm sad and happy to say) and was immediately drafted to take on a precinct for door-to-door voter registration.
ldp, that's the story my Obama office had, too. I don't think it's that they're all out -- they just never got any. Our office just opened on Saturday, and they had no bumper stickers to open with, and they say they don't know when they'll get any. Someone commented on TPM yesterday that they may be holding out til Obama names his running mate.
July 23, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP (D), a Democratic polling operation had Obama up 8 in Ohio this week, and the next day Rasmussen (the second most accurate multistate pollster according to 538.com) had McCain up by 10 points.
So take any PPP poll with a grain of salt. I assume McCain is up 1 or so in VA right now, given PPP's bias in favor of Obama by a few points.
Without Webb or Kaine on the ticket, Obama will lose VA by a couple points probably.
July 23, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Mark Warner on the ticket, Obama will win Virginia by a couple of points, probably.
July 23, 2008 1:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain may well take 10+ percent of the AA vote in The Old Dominion when you consider: 1. Black republicans in northern Virginia; and 2. Military folks in the Norfolk/Hampton Roads area. Plus, unlike many southern states, Virginia doesn't have a very large AA population. So, the numbers don't strike me as that far off.
That said, I think there is a better than even chance Obama takes the Commonwealth in November. How exciting would that be -- for Virginia to put him over the top? After 20+ years, my vote in a presidential election may acctually count! When I couple that with the thought of having two Democratic senators, well, I could practically piddle myself with excitement.
July 23, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt VERY SERIOUSLY that McCain will get higher than 10% of the black vote. He will probably get under 5% by election day.
Virginia is DEFINITELY in play.
July 23, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Poll from Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 1 in Florida.
July 23, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too early to count on any of these polls . . . As the campaign progresses the current news, the change of direction in platform, the economics of the country etc.all can create an entirely different picture and what people believe is our best bet. Definitely McCain leads in changing the direction of his platform and for major (lying) gaffes!
July 23, 2008 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
of the three southern states Obama is competing for: Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia. Virginia is the state Obama is likely going to win.
July 23, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe Virginia will go Democratic for the first time since '64, but I don't believe it is the most likely.
Georgia is more likely. It has a history of going Democratic and a lot of Democratic folks have moved to the ALT and elsewhere in Georgia in recent years.
July 23, 2008 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wheeeeee!
Alas, i still don't know how anyone can vote for that doddering old malapropist....
July 23, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's whole presidential campaign can be summed up in two words - "Surge" & "Drill". Since surge is not working , probably he'll now call for "Surge in Drilling"..
July 23, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Surge" & "Drill"? Has he been getting into Bob Dole's Viagra before strategy meetings again?
July 23, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Red State Blues:
I'm not sure what you mean when you say that Virginia doesn't have a very large AA population. According to Wikipedia, 20.8% of Virginians are African-American; I think that's right in the middle of southern states.
Dr. Zaius:
I keep hearing people say that Obama has to have Kaine or Webb on the ticket to win Virginia. As a Virginian, I can promise you that this is just not accurate.
The bad news, I suppose, is that, as much as I like Tim Kaine, he is not in a position to "deliver" Virginia in the outmoded sense that certain VP candidates are said to be able to do with their state. The good news is that Obama can win Virginia anyway. Every Democrat to win statewide office here since Mark Warner has done so using the same playbook -- work hard in SW Virginia and on the Southside (not just "don't write them off," but really push the retail politics) and try to break even there or come close; exude enough centrism/deficit hawkishness to undermine the "tax and spend liberal" stereotyping that the GOP throws out every time; and, of course, annihilate your opponent by ridiculous margins in Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads. Warner, Kaine and Webb will all concede this if you ask them. So, I think there may be reasons Obama wants Kaine nationally but I think the opportunity is there in Virginia with or without him.
July 23, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm, somewhere I had read that Virginia's AA population was around 12%, but darned if I can remember where I saw that. Not sure I would trust Wikipedia as an authoritative source on Virginia demographics, but since I can't come up with my source . . .
I agree with you completely that Obama can win Virginia without Kaine or Webb, though I think Webb would increase the likelihood significantly. I don't see that Kaine gives Obama much nationally or state-wise, since Kaine ain't all that popular right now, and certainly will never be as popular as Warner. And Obama can't have Warner. No way, no how!
July 23, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those black military guys in Va. need to tell their friends and pollsters how strong they are for McCain. Fight, fight, fight!
In November, they'll be AWOL when the old man needs them most.
July 24, 2008 5:34 AM | Reply | Permalink