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Poll: Obama Narrowly Ahead In Colorado
A new poll suggests that Barack Obama is ahead in Colorado, a Western state that his campaign is actively targeting to turn from red to blue -- but at the same time, a lot of undecideds could be headed towards John McCain.
The new numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, consistent with other polls that have shown a close race here. Before leaners were factored in, it was Obama ahead 49%-42%, meaning that John McCain could really pick up here as more people make up their minds during a tough campaign.
The stakes in Colorado are enormous: Flipping Colorado is one of the few routes that gets Obama to the White House in the event of losses in Florida and Ohio.
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Living in Denver, it's easy to forget that our state is predominantly red. Here in the city, Democrats are mobilized and pumped up for the convention. And Boulder and Aspen are always blue. But the rest of the state, especially Colorado Springs and the eastern plains, is pretty conservative.
There are some things working for us this year: Republican Senate candidate Bob Schaeffer keeps blathering like an idiot in the media, which should cause some backlash. And homeboys Ken Salazar and Federico Peña both have a shot at cabinet positions, which will mobilize our hispanic population.
Oh yeah, and McCain's a tool.
July 22, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Living in Denver, it's easy to forget that our state is predominantly red."
Well, in area perhaps, but not in population. Eastern Colorado is very red, but there ain't that many people out there.
July 22, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
For you stupid Obama lovers, check out the second poll number, it is Udall 49, Schaffer 46. Is not this supposed to be a cake walk with Udall's name and Schaffer's problem? So much for Colorado trending Democratic. Figuring in Bradley effect, the likelihood of messy Denver convention, your love boy, the empty suit, has as much chance winning as any other Democratic candidate before now.
I have a commercial ready for RNC and McCain to run. Run commercial on Obama's refusal to acknowledge the success of surge to Kate Couric. Encourage people to ask ask him to give a straight answer: do you think it is a success or not? If yes, then the man lacks judgement to oppose the surge to begin with. If the answer is no, then this man is as stubborn as Bush and is someone who refused to acknowledge reality. a tag-line: Obama, prefer a failure in Iraq to help his candidacy, eager to over ride the people on the ground in Iraq, ...
July 22, 2008 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"I have a commercial ready for RNC and McCain to run."
By all means, please suggest it to them. You sound like you have the level of thoughtfulness and competence appropriate for the McCain campaign.
July 23, 2008 12:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ahhahahahahahahahahahahaha...
You illiterate buffoon.
July 23, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Have you even followed McCain's bumbling attempts to criticize lately?
You sound desperate and silly. Good news, I'd say.
July 23, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Udall's trend is up, Schaffer's is down.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/co/08-co-sen-ge-svu.php
July 22, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't play poker, do you Eric? This is kinda one of those deals where how much you're willing to bet can be decided by measuring your chip stack against the other guy's chip stack. The contest is for the Presidency of the United States, so by that measure, the stakes are enormous for both candidates. The stakes in Colorado are enormous if you assume Obama can't win in Florida and/or Virginia. Is that the POV you started with?
July 22, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm confused. "Before leaners were factored in, it was Obama ahead 49%-42%" but with them it's 50%-47%? And that's bad Because the margin narrows? I'd be worried if the leaners gave it to McCain, but this looks pretty darn solid.
July 22, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, because if Obama only gets 50% and McCain gets 51%, then McCain gets all of the electoral votes. This will happen if Nader gets 2% and Barr only gets 1%.
July 22, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Adding up to 104%? I'm sure there's a typo in your post. :)
July 22, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I sure hope you're not home-teaching your kids with that math.
July 22, 2008 6:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
July 22, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah Eric, McCain could really pick up more there and still lose because Obama just needs a tiny fraction of leaners to put him over the top.
July 22, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love the lede on the front page of TPM: The White House is still trying to explain Maliki's statement.
The first thing that popped into my head when I read it was an old Jimmy Reed song:
You got me running,
you got me hiding,
you got me run run, hide hide
anyway you want me, let it roll,
yeah yeah yeah.
You got me doing what you want me,
baby what you want me to do.
The Repugs are running around like rats on a burning ship.
July 22, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
OT, but Ackermann has a great point about McCain's revised history of the SURGE:
http://attackerman.firedoglake.com/2008/07/22/macfarlandknowsbetterthanmccain/
Passing it along with the hopes that folks will read it and digg it.
July 22, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
We Democrats better be very concerned about all of the news (or polls) coming out today--be it Colorado, Ohio, Michigan or even the National Tracking Polls!
I, for one, NEVER believed in the existence of these so-called "Independents" --at least NOT in the large numbers that they supposedly represented. In other words, anyone at this point in time (or even recently) who still has to debate over which party to identify with after ALL that the Republicans have done to our economy, environment and the globe is NOT an independent-thinking person! Indeed, a great many of these so-called "Independents" are really just Closet Republicans, who want (or wanted) to dignify themselves by labeling themselves as "Independents."
All in all, it does not surprise me that these so-called "Independents" are now coming home to their REAL Republican roosts.
Obama needs to win decisively in many of the "key" states or I fear that History will repeat itself and the Republicans will once again steal the election in whatever manner they see fit to do so THIS TIME AROUND!!
July 22, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can quit worrying.
Colorado is trending strongly to Democratic. The Repugs only held the front range - they dominated Colorado Springs and the AF Academy. That's where Dobson is HQ'd, but Dobson is not all that popular these days and a conservative Democrat can take the whole state. Salazar took the Western Slope in '06.
This is one big goddamn reason Obama started showing his centrist leanings so much (and it pissed alll the lefties off, but I know the Western Slope of Colorado well - you cannot win it as a liberal Democrat. You can win the state if you demonstrate centrist tendencies.
July 22, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Midwesterners, you seem to think that Independents are "independent-thinking person[s]". No, in polls Independent = stupid. Remember that half of the population is below average, but they still get to vote.
July 22, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
NO poll before Labor Day is worth worrying about, no matter how hard, and how breathlessly, the MSM tells you to worry about it.
July 22, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forget Ohio and Florida. B. Obama is going to win Colorado, Nevada and Virginia.
July 22, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can also substitute Missouri or Indiana (11 electoral votes each) for Colorado, which are effectively both "red states" currently in a dead heat, trending blue.
As a hoosier, I must say: "Whodah-thunkit?"
July 22, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not just the Western Slope and Colorado Springs are Republican. In the North Eastern county with which I am most familiar registration for the last 10 years or so, has been about 45% Republican, 30% Unaffiliated, 25% Democratic. They love Schaeffer and explain away the last 8 years either by denying the facts or claiming Bush et al are not "real" Republicans.
In the meantime, blue dog Dems are losing the base. The Dems will keep the House, so supporting blue dogs only holds us back there. Putting the Repub back means they will be powerless, so it is a better strategic choice for traditional, liberal Dems like me to support real Dems in other areas or other states. Wouldn't it be better to work for high turnout of real Dems than for Dem politicians to continue to genuflect before Republicans whose support they will never actually gain?
July 22, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he wins NV and CO, that means he will win NM as well. And don't forget IA.
The convention will likely give Obama a big boost in CO. That was well planned.
July 22, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if anyone wants anecdotal evidence, I have conservative friends living in Colorado Springs who loathe John McCain to the extent that they'll either sit home or vote for Obama.
The only person who would have brought them out to vote for McCain would have been Clinton.
July 22, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Richardson as VP would help in CO. He is a westerner, knows the lingo and attitude about hunting and firearms.
Richardson would deliver NM and might push CO into the Blue column.
July 22, 2008 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
How would Romney as McCain Veep effect the Colorado numbers?
July 22, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The stakes in Colorado are enormous: Flipping Colorado is one of the few routes that gets Obama to the White House in the event of losses in Florida and Ohio."
The way I look at it, in that scenario he needs just one of Missouri, Indiana, Virginia, or Colorado. I wouldn't be surprised if he got two of these.
He might take Ohio which would make that moot, but I'm not going to count on that state. Been burned by them too much the last 8 years.
July 22, 2008 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
And now for a reminder why the Criminal in Chief can sink lower than (AWK!) 21%:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/greg-mitchell/banned-bush-video-surface_b_114363.html
++ugh
July 22, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
i don't see that happening. but just in case, if you want to help elect obama as president, donate to bob barr!
July 22, 2008 9:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry to pimp, but huge story about Couric's interview with McCain tonight and his facts on the surge - there is a potentially big scandal here if it gets around enough:
http://strategy08.wordpress.com/2008/07/23/action-time-katie-couric-and-cbs/
July 22, 2008 9:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm more inclined to watch the events over at Nate and Poblano's digs, 538.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Trying to make sense of one single poll, doesn't really make sense. Predictions are tricky for sure but these guys over at 538 have a pretty interesting thing going on. They are more worried about Ohio today than Colorado.
I know it sounds like spamming, but seriously, if you haven't seen their sight it is really worth checking out. A must for junkies, and much more interesting that just merely poll watching.
(Eric, you should check it out, too, if you haven't. You'll like it I'm sure.)
July 22, 2008 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is a must read. As I have been harping, nagging (I admit) for months, this man is not qualified for the Presidency. He has no clue to the actual facts and events in Iraq past and present. FINALLY, people are starting to question the gaffes, which I still maintain are slight dementia due to age. And no, I am not being disrespectful of the elderly. I will get there too, sooner than later. I would not, however, feel that I had the acumen to run this country. BTW, on Yahoo's most viewed stories tonight is the headline about the mistakes McCain is making and whether it is more than gaffes.
Here is must read link:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ilan-goldenberg/not-a-gaffe-a-fundaemtnal_b_114394.html
July 22, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I realize this is off topic, which I apologize for, but hell, when will people wake up and stop covering for this guy?!
July 22, 2008 10:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
you're right. That is a must read. What a sad man McCain is. My only quibble. I don't think the events of 2006 are properly called history. It's current events. McCain is too out of touch to even keep up with what is happening right now, much less history.
worst. candidate. ever.
He should just quit now before he becomes a total laughing stock. I'm sure Willard is still willing to run. They might have half a chance with Willard.
July 22, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean Obama can still win the White House even if he might not win Florida and Ohio even though he most likely will win Florida and Ohio?
I'd say that Obama's latest speech for the NAACP in Cincinatti will make an enormous difference.
Remember who Obama's base is Erik.
July 22, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not at all true. These states have very different demographics. New Mexico's Hispanic population is literally 10 times that of Colorado and that's just for starters. In age, education and income these states all vary wildly.
July 22, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Ritter won the governorship in '06 by 16 points. Obama has opened 5 offices here (he had 12 for the primary), McCain has yet to open one. The Rs here are demoralized and out of money, Musgrave has pretty well been deserted by the RNCC and the RNSC may soon give up on Schaffer as well and spend their money elsewhere.
Oh - and the Rs are bleeding in voter registration, while Dems and Unaffiliateds are gaining them. The Unaffiated just became the larges voting bloc in CO, overtaking the Republicans.
Obama can win Colorado if he keeps up the momentum.
July 22, 2008 11:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, citizens! The stakes in Colorado are enormous and delicious!! Eat for Obama!!
July 23, 2008 2:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yikes, you're bright as Alaska in December!
July 23, 2008 4:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
"The stakes in Colorado are enormous: Flipping Colorado is one of the few routes that gets Obama to the White House in the event of losses in Florida and Ohio."
Hmmmmmmm. Answer this question, Eric. How many routes get McCain to the White House if he loses Florida OR Ohio?
July 23, 2008 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The very idea that we can talk about a possible Democratic victory in November without winning either FL or OH kinda defeats the idea that the "stakes are enormous", doesn't it?
July 23, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink