Go us! It's definitely doable, imho. If the AA vote can be bumped up, and continue the malaise that the conservatives seem to be having about voting for McCain, then yeah, it could happen. I'd be thrilled if we went blue! And the state is heading that way, perhaps only a few years behind Virginia.

Obama has been spending a lot in NC. I live in Raleigh and get 3 or 4 Obama ads every night on cable between about 7~11pm. Yes, I watch a lot of TV.

My main concern in NC: that Kay Hagan unseat Liddy Dole, especially after yesterday's lunacy.

Should Obama prevail in NC, PLEASE let him have coattails!!!

I think it's a bit too much to lead with "John McCain might end up having to work really hard to hold on to North Carolina" when poll after poll have shown Obama within a few points in NC. I mean, it's fine the first few months of such polls being released, but Rasmussen has shown the two within 4-5% in NC since April. Heck, they were tied at 47% in the April poll!

My point is just that McCain hasn't led big in North Carolina poll in months (and never had a double-digit lead), so it might be a bit excessive to express amazement every time!

Apart from that, I entirely agree that as of a year ago no one would have predicted NC to be this tight, and it would a HUGE pick-up if Obama managed to win this!

What people should keep in mind is that when you look at most pollsters crosstabs they are keeping the turnout models fairly consistent with past turnout history. I just can't imagine that AA turnout will be at the same rate as it ahs in the past. But the question is how much will it grow? 10% increase in NC would add just under 2% to Obama's total share of the vote. 20% increase means an additional 4%. All the recent NC polls suggest this race is 5% or closer, so we can see what AA turnout will mean come November.

The other thing to jeep in mind is that young voters in NC vote below the national average and they could also swing the election in NC if there is a significant increase in their rates.

Just to make another point. During the primaries there was a lot of talk about Obama winning the nomination based on red states he's not going to win the General. I don't think any other democratic nominee could make NC or VA competitive. Obama seems to be doing well in pretty much every blue state, leading in quite a few swing states and staying competitive a couple of red states which have a chunk or electoral votes.

That's VERY unfair, especially in Virginia. Let's not rehash Clinton-Obama, but it's hard to argue that Clinton wasn't very competitive in Virgina. Look at this poll from December: Clinton led by double-digits against all GOPers but McCain, whom she led by 2%.

Obama was tied with McCain in the April poll. He's now down 3 points and that's a positive? Oh yea, margin of error etc etc. He's really up 1.5% if you factor in the margin of error.

FYI: Bush won NC by 13 points in '04.

This reiterates the possibility that Obama has a very good chance of winning the popular vote, no matter what the final electoral vote is. If he's going to be close in these red states, the actual popular vote total will be very high for Obama.

Obama reopened all of his primary field offices in NC a couple of weeks ago and is opening several more in the next several days.

So how many field offices does Johnny Maverick have in the must-win state of NC? According to his website, that would be zero, zip, nada, zilch. He's got a relatively big footprint in Virginia, several field offices and a regional HQ--though still less than Obama--but zero footprint here in the old North state. His whole "effort" in this state, is run out of his Southeast regional office in Florida. Get that? Florida! Buahahahahaha! It is to laugh.

Both Virginia and North Carolina are must-wins for our Straight-Talkin' Hero (he was tortured for his country, you know but don't ask 'cause he hates to talk about it). There is no realistic victory scenario for him that does not include both states and he's got nothin' here. I live in the second most conservative area code in the state and I have, thus far, seen exactly one McCain bumper sticker here. A tiny ie little square one that's like those black and white "W" stickers with the "W" turned upside down (way to attach yourself to a winning brand there, Mav, p.s. and btw!)

N.C.'s Republican party is loaded with precisely the kind of knuckle-walking club thumpers who hate McCain for his "liberalness" and, among those who aren't, there is a lot of concern about his temper. Really. He's got to win those people on the bandwagon if he's going to have a chance but he's giving this state no love whatsoever.

Taking it for granted? Must be, because he sure can't afford to write it off.

Annnnd, as has already been noted, the turnout models are whack for this state this year.

I would love for my adopted state to be the one that really porks his chances on election night and its like McCain has a deliberate plan to make that happen.

Conservatives won't be voting for Barr when they find out he has shifted 180 degrees on most positions. He now opposes the war on drugs he once championed and hates the Patriot Act he once loved.

He also drove his second wife to a clinic to get an abortion he paid for even though the hypocrite denounced Roe v. Wade.

Funny note: Barr unsuccessfully sought to ban wiccans (witches) from the military. Who woulda thunk the army was a hotbed of goddess worship?