Poll: Obama May Have Gotten Bounce From Overseas Trip
Gallup's daily tracking poll today finds that Obama has moved into a nine point lead over McCain, 49%-40%, the largest spread since Gallup started tracking the general election in March.
Meanwhile, today's CNN poll of polls finds Obama's national lead has doubled from last week to six points, though it's unclear whether this simply reflects the new Gallup numbers.
Other key metrics to keep an eye out for: How will the trip affect polling on Obama's commander in chief readiness, and will Obama cut into McCain's lead in this department? If Obama does manage to go some way towards neutralizing McCain's foreign policy advantage, the road ahead suddenly looks a lot steeper for the Arizona Senator.
We'll be keeping an eye out for numbers on that.
Late Update: The 49%-40% number is in fact yesterday's number, not today's. But today's is practically as good: Obama 48%, McCain 40%.
Well, I know you have to work with the facts as you have them, Greg, but - hell yes he got a bounce. He morphed right into The Prez while he was on that trip.
And of course the Repugs are spinning and lying as fast as they can - they are desperate to get the image of Obama as The Prez out of people's minds. They saw him morph just like the rest of the world and of course they are panicked.
July 28, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
there's little doubt that the trip played extraordinarily well for obama....
July 28, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
It really was brilliant - the whole trip - and I think it has done more for Obama than anything else could have - now that I see how it went.
It was a brilliant trip. It should have dispelled a lot of uncertainty about Obama. Going in, Obama was not at all well known. Now he is, and so far he has looked nothing but presidential as hell.
July 28, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whatever minor (and not-so minor) quibbles I had with Obama were vanquished with that overseas trip. Holy Presidential, Batman! Great speech that covered everything I'd hope our foreign policy could be. Completely sealed the deal for me and it's gotten me really excited by this campaign again! Woo-hoo!!
And that 3-pointer? Awesome!!
July 28, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I could'nt resist this observation of how McCain has morphed into all sorts since the beginning of the campaign
First he was McCain, then McSame,McLame,McBushSame,McWar,McFoolish,McStain,McWorse,McCorpse,McSurge...
You are free to add any I have missed.
All that on top of Tena's funniest...Commander coo coo Bananas for W.
July 28, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mickey D. Mentia
July 28, 2008 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's good news, but in interest of intellectual honesty and consistency, we have to cast a skeptical eye on the tracking poll now, just as we do when it shows a tie or worse.
We can't toss them aside as unreliable when we don't like the results, and cite them when we do.
More proof they aren't to be believed: Rasmussen's is virtually unchanged.
I don't doubt Obama is in the lead, just saying it's important to keep it in perspective: this is the same tracking poll we all have been bashing for weeks.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 28, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am still very cautious when it comes to poll numbers. The trip was very successful by all measure and I think it is going to have effects in the long run.
The mere fact that Germans waiving an American flag abroad send strong signals to the independents that want our image repaired. Obama has passed the foreign policy test. The next hurdle for him is the economy. He need to fire up all his economics six cylinders for the next two months.
July 28, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
He really ought to be able to walk that one in. He's been talking about it all along and I agree that that is the number one issue - and McLame is as fucked up on the economy as he is on the war. I haven't really heard much of anything out of McLame on the economy that made any sense at all.
July 28, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
How come no mention yet of the R2000 national poll, taken for two New Hamphire media outlets, that shows Obama leading 51-39% when Barr and Nader are included? That was taken over the weekend and, while there was no previous national poll by that organization to compare to, would seem to indicate that Obama gained strength from his trip.
July 28, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been seeing these numbers with Nader in them and with Nader not running and as far as I know - Nader is not on any ballot, has no structure in place to get on a ballot and I want to know why they keep including him.
He can't be a factor if he isn't on a ballot and he's not.
July 28, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Tena, just wanted to say that there are those of us who miss you over at Eschaton.
July 28, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks - I miss my peeps. I have nothing but love for all of you.
You'll never guess who I ran into last week at Taos Pueblo of all places - Lilith.
She's an Ojibway who is living with a Taos Indian here. He's a silversmith.
July 28, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Do not know the track record on this pollster. However, another big bounce figure to throw out there- 12 points!!!
BS? Maybe. However, I do not think any of these polls are accurate. Voter turnout, my friends, voter turnout. Of which, I do not know of one pollster taking into account massive Democratic turnout this year. We'll beat the polls- just watch! :)
"A new Research 2000 national poll finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 51% to 39%, with Bob Barr getting 3% and Ralph Nader getting 2%."
The survey was conducted July 25-27.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/07/27/r2000_obama_holds_double_digit_national_lead.html
July 28, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Research 2000 numbers are very encouraging (for us poll junkies, at least). They also continue the trend of Obama doing even better when Barr and Nader are included in the questions.
-- Stu
July 28, 2008 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also notice how Real Clear Politics, the supposed "gold standard" on polls, still hasn't posted or included this poll. They are always quick to post any fly-by-night poll showing movement toward McSame or a Repub, yet on polls like this, they either ignore it or publish it very late.
July 28, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
They'd rather talk about the Democracy Now poll which shows Obama only with a 5 point lead, and, if you just look at the results from the 18 battleground states (18?), Obama only has a 1 point lead.
Seriously. It's hackery at its finest.
July 28, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree, Joseph. I'm convinced that turnout will be record breaking, based on what has happened so far. The primary turnout broke records and I expect the same will happen in November.
July 28, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am still skeptical of polls; they are only good for fund raising. Only political junkies are paying attention at this point. The rest of the citizens are on vacation or worried about their job.
July 28, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Polls mean nothing in July. Not trying to be a downer, but poll watching right now is nothing short of navelgazing.
July 28, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Polls mean nothing in October. Not trying to be a downer, but poll watching right now is nothing short of navelgazing.
Posted by hello_world
October 28, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
July 28, 2008 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
why would anyone want to vote for someone who only gives a rat's ass about this country and you every 4 years?
July 28, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
...supposed to be in reply for Tena's Nader comment. oops.
July 28, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes and no. I think the state polls are more relevant than the national polls. The national polls constitute navel gazing through November.
July 28, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, and I have been keeping an eye out for the state polls, if for no other reason to see where Obama and McCain are likely to be deploying the bulk of their efforts going into the fall. However, national polls are just fodder for the pundits, and I generally ignore them, regardless of what they say.
July 28, 2008 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can someone please tell me why the pollsters keep including Nader?
Please?
July 28, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
well, I wish he was as irrelevant as we'd like. unfortunately, there are those committed to make their vote mean zilch and apparently, choose to ignore the fact they are actually voting against the issues that mean something to them by voting for nader. that is- obama and nader are on the same ground on all the important issues, yet by voting for nader, you are pissing your vote away, which in turn actually helps mccain.
nader's enormous ego shouldn't be fed by one voter, let alone 2%.
July 28, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree with all of that, Joseph. What I cannot understand is why they are including him when in fact he isn't actually running.
They throw him as a spoiler. Which is what he is - but he only came out of hiding once that I'm aware of and said he was "toying with the idea of running again." That's what has me puzzled- he's not on the ballot in any state I'm aware of nor is he filing petitions to get on a ballot, so it's like they just conjure up Nader as a sticking point and throw him in the mix.
It's weird.
July 28, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
HTX, Nader has announced that he is running again. I don't know the details about ballot qualification, but he is announced as a candidate.
At this point anyway polls actually show him hurting McCain more than Obama, and I don't expect him to exceed his paltry showing in 04 anyway, so I have little trouble with him running.
July 28, 2008 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, then - d'oh me.
Me so stoopid, me missed story.
Thank you - it was driving me nuts not knowing the facts. I had not heard or read that about Nader.
What a goddamn megalomaniacal nut job and he looks it these days - he looks as though there is something wrong with him.
And for damn sure there is something really wrong with anyone who would vote for that lunatic.
July 28, 2008 12:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently, Nader is on 15 states ballots as of July 21, with more to come, I believe.
July 28, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
pollster ating here:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
July 28, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the trip, visually, was spectacular, and I think that is what will linger with voters.
Plus, if you saw Obama on "MTP" and McCain on "This Week", Obama was comfortable, teasing Tom Brokaw, and thoughtful. McCain was weird (I never said timetable! ) and didn't look healthy, frankly. These images will hopefully start piling up in voters' minds.
That being said, the tracking polls, while fun on days like today, are just the equivalent of crack. Stay away from them, people. At this point in 2004, Kerry was up over Bush. Then came a month of Swiftboat ads, and, well, you know the rest.
July 28, 2008 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dont mean to change the topic, August 4, is BO's birthday, lets make August 4 the biggest donation ever!!
July 28, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oooo - what an awesome, award winning post!
Thank you lolo!
July 28, 2008 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Several things Rasmussen has done lately seem questionable.
It has become difficult to access the favorability-unfavorability ratings lately.
Their weekend figures show Obama down---this has long been a quirk in their daily numbers which they seem to brain-dead to address.
July 28, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Germans even found out his workout routine . . .
July 28, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
info@rasmussenreports.com
There is a suspicion about your omission of the favorability-unfavorability ratings on McCain and Obama. Why are they being omitted?
Thank you for taking the time to write. We're not sure how to respond, since the favorability ratings are posted every day as part of our Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Thank you for your interest in our work.
really. Where?
General Election Match-Up History
See all recent Presidential Election Polls
Analysis of Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
General Election Match-Up
John McCain vs. Barack Obama
Match-up without Leaners Match-up with Leaners
McCain Obama McCain Obama
07/28/2008 42% 45% 45% 48%
07/27/2008 41% 46% 44% 49%
07/26/2008 40% 46% 43% 49%
07/25/2008 41% 46% 44% 49%
07/24/2008 41% 45% 45% 48%
07/23/2008 42% 45% 45% 47%
Site Search
Search for "favorability" returned 4 matches:
Presidential Favorability Ratings
A look at the favorable and unfavorable ratings for leading Presidential contenders provides a good look at a polarized electorate.
Favorability Ratings Improve for Thompson and McCain
For the first time in months, Thompson has moved ahead of Giuliani and McCain has moved ahead of Romney in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination.
Hillary Meter: Just 24% Consider Clinton Likely Candidate in 2008
In the most recent Rasmussen Hillary Meter survey, former First Lady Hillary Clinton has shifted three points to the left on the ideological continuum to 58 points left of the nation’s political center.
Hillary Meter: Just 23% Say She's Likely to Be Candidate in 2008
Just 23% of Americans now believe that Senator Hillary Clinton is "very likely" to be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2008, a decline of ten percentage points over the past year and a half.
July 28, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink