Poll: Obama Leads By Six, But Majority Says He's The "Riskier" Choice
The new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll has good news for Barack Obama, giving him a 47%-41% lead over John McCain. But there's a catch: A solid 55% of registered voters view him as the "riskier" choice for president, compared to only 35% who say McCain is the bigger risk.
Huge majorities say Obama is more likable, more compassionate and able to understand average people, offers hope and optimism for the future, and would improve America's standing in the world. But at the same time, McCain has his own lop-sided majorities on being a good commander-in-chief, and on being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency.
McCain has his own problems, mainly coming from a lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy. Only 14% of the people voting for him will say they're "excited" about him, with 42% "satisfied" and a whopping 43% listing him as the "lesser of two evils." Obama's numbers are much better at 44% excited, 33% satisfied, and only 22% saying he's the lesser of two evils.
"This remains Barack Obama's election to win," said the pollster. "In the end, the election is about reassuring voters and removing doubts."
A dog bit a man today. News at 11.
July 23, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Breaking (not braking)!
McCain to pick Robert Novak for Veep:
McCain admires Bob's "killer instinct".
~
July 23, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actuallu, McCain has quite enough of the killer instinct in him without help from Novak. I guess the nice guy running in the primary election against Bush was ground into the dirt never to reappear. In some ways I can understand that. But it has made him so nasty and shrill so I can no longer support him although I wrote in his name the last two elections. Sad to have to see this in someone I have so admired in the past. People always told me there was this nasty streak in him and alas, I finally see it.
July 23, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw, gee - ya think?
I should get paid for this - I was saying the same thing weeks ago.
;)
July 23, 2008 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Over the last month JM has been trying to paint BO as a flip flopper and has out spent BO 3-1 and all JM has to show for it is a 6 point deficit. This poll has to sting JM a bit.
July 23, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's probably true for most people. But rub a little Surge on it and voila, he's up by 15. You can't deny the power of the Surge!
July 23, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Play it safe voters. Go with McCain. The Republicans have not fucked up the country enough yet. Give him War more years,I mean.. hell no, I had it right the first time. War more Years. Let McCain finish Bush's wrecking job.
Play it safe. Why take a risk on Obama. He might turn the country around. You wouldn't want that now, would you, since you are just
growing accustomed to watching the
country go down the drain?
Play it safe. Let Ye Olde War Monger
finish what Bush started.You will love becoming a third world economy.
July 23, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty sure that McCain's knowledgable ratings will drop like a rock throughout the campaign.
BTW, who would have known that McCain's name would be the one to lend itself to so many monikers and not Obama's? Of course, I don't read the wingnut sites...
July 23, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
MSNBC is reporting a new poll that shows only 13% of Americans believe the US is heading in the right direction. That suggests people will be willing to take some risks to change course.
July 23, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
great point. the enthusiasm gap is important too. this means if its raining or snow then that means older voters and mccain supporter who aren't that enthusiastic about mccain will not come out to vote. does anyone want to join me in rain dancing?
Video of Meghan McCain and media get together at McCains house
July 23, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
race for white house kept implying this could spell trouble for obama and where is bounce from his overseas trip, but none will tackle the fact mccain is still losing. i hope no one has forgotten bush beat kerry by 3 percent.
July 23, 2008 7:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would challenge them to look at their coverage of the race and count how many process stories they run on how this and that gaffe draws into question McCain's ability to lead, or whether McCain has the temperament to be POTUS, or whether America is ready for a 72 year old President, or whether McCain truly understands his own proposals, or if McCain's supposed experience in foreign policy is truly warranted in light of his recent comments and lack of foreign policy vision.
They've run COUNTLESS stories on Obama on similar themes. It's a wonder that he's even up at ALL.
July 23, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This election might be about reassuring voters, but I also think it's about making sure that those very excited Obama voters get to the polls.
I look forward to Andrea Mitchell explaining why this poll is bad news for Obama.
And considering the fact that John McCain is outspending Obama (and bragging about it), these results have to be disappointing. But again, I"m sure Andrea Mitchell will explain why this is actually a good thing for McCain.
July 23, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has his own lop-sided majorities on being a good commander-in-chief, and on being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency.
Anyone witnessing the events unfolding this week will consider this statement absurd. Be it me McCain Iraq/Pakistan border style gaffes or Obama's pictures with the troops and Patreaus. Be it be Maliki's endorsement of Obama's Iraq plan or McCain's blatant lie about Iraqi surge timeline.
We cannot predict the outcome, but Obama is running a beautiful campaign. Challenging and winning the foriegn policy argument against McCain and the GOP- the turf long considered as a given for the G.O.P doesn't appear so anymore.
July 23, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good poll numbers. Too early to tell if the trip had any affect for poll done over the weekend, only 2 days into Obama's trip.
But the good news is that Obama hasn't lost points after that whole "he moving to the center" crap and that whole "he's a flip flopper".
The election is like 1980 in that voters at the last mind will either think Obama is a "safe" choice and he wins in a landslide.
Furthermore, the enthusiasm gap is HUGE. Chuck Todd says that is the difference in whether people will come out and vote for a candidate in the rain or snow or wait in line for hours to vote.
Stay tune...
July 23, 2008 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to wonder about the 14% of the people voting for McCain who say they're "excited" about him. Talk about a low excitement threshold, they're probably dunking a slice of Wonder bread in a glass of water while they wait for their vanilla puddin' to cool.
July 23, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL.
July 23, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those numbers are worse than W's.
I think one thing needs to be made clear to the American public: electing a short-tempered individual who appears to be suffering from some sort of memory deficit is by far "riskier" than electing Obama.
July 23, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
At the Del Boca Vista, the threshold to achieving excitement isn't much of a hurdle. Kind of a hedgerow, really.
July 23, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
SO. . you think that growing and being old is laughable. "Oh, look those old people have to soften their food before eating it. They are to be pitied and marginalized, and they can't be counted as _real_ people! Only people over 18 and under 65 are valid humans!"
Unless you are dead before you get that old, that will be YOU. Do you think you are going to escape it? When you get there, someone will be marginalizing YOU and you will look back to this day and think. " what a putz I was, why didn't I see age discrimination for what it was, my inability to imagine myself in the same situation?"
enjoy
July 23, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I acted as a caregiver to both my parents for many years prior to their deaths. Don't preach to me about respecting the elderly, Mr. or Mrs. Putz.
My post made no reference to age but rather to people with a low excitement threshold, so please remove your head from your ass and pay more attention.
July 23, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reality Check:
A nation of voters which reelected George W. Bush is not qualified to gauge what a safer pick is.
July 23, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is outspending Obama in ad buys, however they're basically spending the same amount of money - Obama is just spending his money on the ground with GOTV registration, field offices and paid staffers. All laying the groundwork for a massive volunteer influx when the colleges get back in from summer break.
Obama is banking on word-of-mouth being more powerful that television ads.
July 23, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow. Only 6 points and people think Obama's RISKIER than McCain?
I'm frightened.
July 23, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Its summer folks. These polls do not reflect reality. They wont matter till the fall, it's only us junkies that are really following this thing. I was listening to republican strategists today and they are pissed. They know the game and they are not seeing an organised campaign. The ground work is non existent in most states, there is no unified message, irresponsible ads. Their operation is a joke and it will show in the fall trust me.
July 23, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. This is the state of play.
July 23, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd echo Maritza re: echoes of 1980. If and when Obama sells the American people on the fact that he is qualified to be President, the margin will be a lot more than 6, IMHO.
July 23, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can't win a Presidency in the summer, but if the notion that "Obama will be our next President" settles in, we'll all be happy come November.
July 23, 2008 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
This election has the potential to be a landslide for Obama or a squeaker for McCain because of the HUGE enthusiasm gap.
It will be one or the other.
July 23, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
just finish looking at poll when nader and barr are added obama goes up by 13.... why the media didn't focus on that because last i heard nader and barr are still in the race....
July 23, 2008 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is tempting to contribute to Barr. I seem to recall in 2004 Nader got the lion's share of his funding from Republican donors.
July 23, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quite true. However, for the most part third party candidates are "over polled" prior to Election Day. When push comes to shove on Election Day, a significant number of Nader or Barr voters will go for McCain or Obama. Third party candidate numbers do not go up in the fall. Still if it is a close race a few percent in pivotal states may make a difference.
July 23, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
While most of the recent polls indicate a pretty tight race, from the tone of the McCain campaign and it's complete lack of decorum, attacking Obama's statement at the Holocaust Memorial, etc., you would think he was trailing by 20 or 30 points. It suggests that the people working for McCain lack confidence in his candidacy.
July 23, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Riskier" is not an unreasonable assessment of Obama at this time, and considering that the effect of Obama's it-gets-better-every-day overseas trip had barely kicked in when the poll was taken.
As other people have pointed out, the situation in 2008 is similar to 1980. The untested name then was Ronald Reagan, facing an intensely disliked and unlucky Jimmy Carter. Carter kept it close until the debates. After Reagan uttered his famous "there you go again" line against Carter in one of the debates, Carter's defeat was assured. It may not be remembered, but Reagan got only 50.8% in that vote, with Carter at 41% (hence the "landslide for Reagan" idea) and Anderson had 6.6%.
July 23, 2008 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really can't wait for the debates. Having a side by side comparison of these two candidates and giving Obama a chance to directly call McCain on his bullshit will be immensely satisfying. I bet we'll start to see Obama pull away once the debates start.
July 23, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Obama 'risky' because of what his expressed positions might do to the country if implemented, or is he risky because he is a largely unknown quantity, he would be the devil we don't know as opposed to McCain's devil we know? As for me, Obama will get my vote, there is no way that we can afford to have McCain as president on top of 8 years of this Bush travesty to democracy.
July 24, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
. . . and the universe hears,
July 23, 2008 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I too am considering donating to Barr's campaign. It's time to use the 3rd party against the Republicans, as they have the Democrats. Barr did get on the ballot in Ohio.
July 23, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree 100%. Turnabout is fair play. We all remember GOPers going overboard to get petitions signed allowing Nader on the 2004 ballots. Let's donate to Barr and be ready to say "Get over it" to the GOP when McCain loses in November...
July 23, 2008 10:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Katie Couric's interview was disgusting. Who the hell gave her that job, she is not a journalist, she is a talking head idiot. It is people like her that carry McCain's surge, limp though it may be.
July 23, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you all corporate media clones? Why highlight the riskier data in the heading and leave out the fact that 60% actually think he is more mainstream candidate of the two?
July 23, 2008 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
The election is not about those issues.
The election is about waterboarding United States citizens through the Patriot Act, convicting the Republican Party of treason, dismantling the Republican Party, rooting out Frats, Street Gangs, and Freemasonry, Cults, and bringing the Olympics to Chicago in 2016.
July 23, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
McVane = That bizarre phenomenon when the politcal wind makes an old geiser flip in the face of a pandering gust
Mcinsane in the membrane = That harrowing phenomenon when an ancient of days ODs on viagra and he cant stop talking about the surge
Mcblame = That tired argument an naval campaigner makes that the guys licking his butt cheated on him in mass nero orgy overseas and instead of an invite all he had was a lone dude in the Granite state with no lube..."F him all he gets his 3 fingas!"
Mcsheik = That eerie feeling this old man is so in tune with Iraqis he can make decisions for them including pork sarnies on his I won party now sheik my left hand Omar
Mcoops = Yet again as a Brit I scoff at even the signer of the magna carta lack of geographic nous
McCBS = Is it an edit, is it a liberal media mistake nah its a network covering up a man so young he makes Babylonians look like a glint in a snarky Mesopotamian's eye for a mess in front of a national audience that took ten rolls of paper towels and an entire bottle o bleach
Mcmaverick = A aged cheese so out on the Mountain Dew edge he goes conventional flipper when we all expected a grey haired James Dean to show up and rub the Elephant's trunk with straight tanqs
Mchandson41 = Hey can you blame him for puking Broccoli (after they had blue lite special) on a man in such proximity to Moses he sent Joe Lie about humping spam to pay homage...o sorry Hagee always get those mixed up silly me!
Mcblowme = Hey look he may win the election by default but his plastic whiff will never grant his biggest wish
Mc
July 23, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain has taken the Governor of Louisiana off his VP candidate list. Bobby Jindal says that he thinks that the reason why McCain dropped him from consideration is because Satan made him do it.
July 23, 2008 10:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a shame, he would have been fun.
Let's go Mittmentum V.2
July 23, 2008 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I get a kick out of visiting here every couple of days.
You think the American people think this Marxist egomaniac is risky now just wait and see what is in store for him beginning after the conventions. It will be priceless! Never in my political memory has there been so much material to use against a candidate and I feel like a child trying to wait for Christmas morning.
You all just have NO IDEA what awaits! BWAAAHAAA!
PUMA
McCain 2008
July 23, 2008 10:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
There there, Rush baby.
You'll still have your Clear Channel contract, and your Viagra™.
~
July 23, 2008 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know what you mean. McFuddle won't even it coming at him! He seems so confused and lost for the reasons why want to vote for him! Poor John, maybe Cindy will be there for him with some strong kick ass vicodin!
July 23, 2008 11:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a quick suggestion. I always try to 'proofread' my posts before I hit send. It often helps to make a post understandable rather than just sounding silly.
McCain 2008
PUMA
July 24, 2008 12:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody wants a pear-shaped president. Get over it.
July 24, 2008 8:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
And the survey says:
The guy that votes against condoms and healthcare is safer . . .
I note that nobody has yet to ask the revelant question:
What the fuck does 'safer' mean in the context two dudes running for President?
July 23, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Richard, it means "whiter"
July 24, 2008 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
In 2000, voters polled compared Bush to a Mazerati. The fucking stupid toads thought they were voting for, not the all-time shitbag, but a damn Mazerati!
So what they think is safe and good is just nutso, IMHO.
July 24, 2008 5:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama the "riskier" choice. what bs.
in other words Obama is "too dark skinned" for me.
July 24, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's sadly a real sentiment of many voters. That is one reason Obama has not pulled away in the national polls. Many people are simply not going to vote for a black candidate or are very reluctant.
July 24, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Watch this. Then tell me how Obama is the riskier candidate. http://www.tagg-lines.com/2008/07/john-mccains-personal-facts-machine.html
July 24, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain more knowledgeable? That will change as people find out he doesn't know his ass from Afghanistan.
July 24, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink