Poll: Obama Leads By Eight, But McCain Holds Big Foreign Policy "Readiness" Advantage
New Washington Post/ABC News numbers have mixed news for Barack Obama. On the one hand, he holds a healthy national lead of eight points among registered voters, besting McCain 50%-42%.
On the other hand, the poll also shows that McCain holds substantial advantages on key foreign policy readiness questions, suggesting that the stakes of today's Iraq speech, and Obama's pending trip abroad, are extremely high for his presidential hopes.
For instance, the poll finds that McCain has a huge lead (63%-26%) on the question of who has a better knowledge of world affairs.
And McCain also holds a sizable lead (50%-41%) on who is more trusted to handle a major crisis.
Just for the fun of it, we went back and took a look at Bill Clinton's numbers against President George H.W. Bush on foreign policy readiness at around the same time during the 1992 campaign. And as it turns out, Bush had an enormous advantage in a Harris poll, which found that Bush was seen as more likely to be effective in foreign policy by a similarly huge margin of 64%-28%.
And Bush had come off of a successful and popular war, while McCain is defending and promising to continue one whose success is, shall we say, not yet assured -- and is also far less popular. For the history buffs out there.
The rest of (today's) poll is right here.
Comments (70)
Well, obviously McCain knows a lot more than Obama about Czechoslovakia.
July 15, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
nice!
July 15, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
When will someone give McCain a foreign policy pop quiz on camera that he can fail miserably, like a Boston Globe reporter did to Bush?
July 16, 2008 11:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also about Iran sponsored Al-Q, Sunnis and Shites
July 15, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice job, Greg.
Important to have the context of the numbers and what they mean on election day.
July 15, 2008 6:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thje country is further to the left than the pundits realize.
A lot of people have warm feelings towards McCain because he looks so much like the older Charlie Chaplin.
July 15, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thje(sic.) country is further to the left than the pundits realize.
Absolutely true. Especially on the Iraq War, we don't need war thirsty MSM poll to confirm or deny the fact much of the country has been against the Iraq war for three or more years now. Much of the country would like to see us withdraw from Iraq yesterday.
July 15, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean the man who was forced to leave the US under suspicion of being a communist, and had a hard time even getting a visa to accept an academy award decades later? Americans loved that guy . . .
July 16, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
It'll be interesting to see how Obama's poll numbers change after his trip abroad.
July 15, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
All in all, one has to feel pretty good about the fundamentals of the race as it stands.
In the end, Obama needs to re-invigorate his core demographics and turn them out heavily. I'm sensing some fatigue or lack of enthusiasm amongst the youth demo, for instance, but I think that will change in the fall (hopefully).
July 15, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. I, for one, consider exhausted by the long and endless primaries. I'm sure some of the steam has run out of the engine. Also, no denial, whole over blown Wright drama has also hurt the enthusiasm. The recent FISA shift also weakened the enthusiasm among his core base. But you get a sense he is positioning himself for renewal and I fully expect the energy to amplify starting his convention speech.
July 15, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Getting the college kids back in school will be an energy boost as well.
July 15, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the fall it will be cooler, and we'll have more energy.
(There are seasons, in the garden....)
July 15, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that with or without Joe LieberSchmuck whispering in his ear?
July 15, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
For real, you know what it is: the MSM. They have given that to McLame - the man who doesn't know the difference between Sunni and Shia.
July 15, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
to add to your post tena...the difference from his ass and the hole in the ground!
July 15, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't realize quite how well, stupid, McLame is until this campaign.
He's a man of very little brain.
Well, he's a very little man...
July 15, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
It really is a scandal that his ignorance on foreign affairs, and the middle east in particular, isn't more widely known.
"Oh, that's just McCain being McCain...."
July 15, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's response: 50% of the registered voters in this country are whiners.
July 15, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Honk! Honk! Honk! Honk! :-)
July 16, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actuall, the New WaPo/ABC numbers:
Obama 49
McCain 46
This is among LIKELY VOTERS.
July 15, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And in the last poll, among likely voters, McCain led Obama.
July 15, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
and among all adults Obama is up 51-39 in the same poll... what does this mean? The higher the turnout in November the higher Obama's margin of victory.
July 15, 2008 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting comparison to the '92 election numbers, Greg. Your reporting has been great!
July 15, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
If he's so freaking knowledgeable about world affairs, why does he continue to talk about Czechoslovakia, and why did he call Putin the President of Germany?
I loathe mainstream media. I really do.
July 15, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto, I loathe the right-wing propoganda machine as well. When will we get our democracy back? Hopefully in January 09.
July 15, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
" right-wing propoganda machine" Y'all are really killing me with this. You can refer to FNC and Talk Radio as Right-Wing. The NY Times, LA Times ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN/MSNBC/PBS/NPR/BBC have and probably always will be tilted left.
July 16, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
For instance, the poll finds that McCain has a huge lead (63%-26%) on the question of who has a better knowledge of world affairs.
That's fucking maddening.
July 15, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know - it really is. He's dumb and he knows nothing about foreign affairs.
*sigh*
July 15, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain who doesn't know the difference between a Shiite and a Sunni and who thinks Czechoslovakia is still a country has a better knowledge of world affairs? Is anybody paying attention?
Biden went on the attack today, giving McCain and Lieberman a history lesson- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/15/biden-praises-obamas-spin_n_112921.html
July 15, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain's ignorance of history, geography, other cultures, other religions, etc. makes him a typical American, a real man of the people. It also renders him completely unfit to lead. Hey, McCain really does equal Bush.
July 15, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's an item at Politico about how, of all people, W. pointed out that McCain kept referring to Czechoslovakia!
From the comments:
And the media is at it again.
July 15, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Egad, deja vu all over again. With Lieberman and Graham already crowding McCain's bottom, you wouldn't think there would be room for the media too.
July 15, 2008 8:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
word indeed
July 15, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is with the headline? Why isn't the headline more accurately written as "Poll: McCain Holds Big Foreign Policy "Readiness" Advantage, But Obama Leads By Eight"?
Because while McCain may hold a lead on this one issue, the "BUT" is that he is still losing badly. The headline written this way makes it seem as if McCains lead in this one issue somehow overshadows Obama's lead, but the opposite is true, Obama's large lead leaves McCains lead on this one issue as a mere footnote.
July 15, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
The WO!rld TO!ur's a masterstroke
July 15, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow, this proves the tragedy of geographic and historical ignorance in American society...how this idiot could be seen positively in these areas is astounding...as is this:
"For instance, the poll finds that McCain has a huge lead (63%-26%) on the question of who has a better knowledge of world affairs."
Crazy.
July 15, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to Chuck Tood in this election one shouldn't look at "likely voters" but rather "registered voters" because of all the NEW VOTERS in this election.
"Likely voters" are by definition voters who are registered, want to vote, and have voted BEFORE thus that rules out many young voters and first time voter who are enthusiastic to vote in this election.
I agree that the FISA vote dampened some of the left's enthusiasm for Obama but today's Iraq/Afghanistan speech is getting Obama back on track.
July 15, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
According to Chuck Tood in this election one shouldn't look at "likely voters" but rather "registered voters" because of all the NEW VOTERS in this election.
"Likely voters" are by definition voters who are registered, want to vote, and have voted BEFORE thus that rules out many young voters and first time voter who are enthusiastic to vote in this election.
I agree that the FISA vote dampened some of the left's enthusiasm for Obama but today's Iraq/Afghanistan speech is getting Obama back on track.
July 15, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's with the negative title?
July 15, 2008 8:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ok, how about the sc poll results. Obama is only down by 6, 45 to 39. Is sc in play as well? Obama already has a huge ground opp there from the primary. Would that be amazing?
July 15, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's failing. His flip-flops are costing and he's proving himself not ready on security and foreign policy. Further, his attempts to sieze the DNC before his presumed corination are backfiring spectacularly. I'm reading tonight several different news reports of super delegates switching FROM Obama to Clinton. If confirmed in the coming days I'm sure this will have some intense impact upon Obama campaign and breath new life into Clinton's. All's not well with the Dear Leader and there is still time to stop this train wreck before or in Denver.
July 15, 2008 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
Plus ca change, plus ca meme.
In your dreams, Weaver. You wouldn't have believed the 4th of July parade I saw this year- it was practically dedicated to Obama. They were carrying lifesize pictures of him.
July 15, 2008 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't you ever get a bit embarrassed that the substance-free cult following of the Dear Leader?! Or, maybe it's the Kool-Aid?
Clearly a few people are waking up. What, with FISA and more, it is becoming clear that the Dear Leader is throwing everyone and everything under the bus. Anyway, name a cult leader and following that has ever turned out well?
July 15, 2008 9:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Same here. In *Virginia*!!
Of course the hate-filled trolls (Weaver and all the others) will cowardly not appear the day after Election Day when Obama wins. Bet on it! Just like Shrub, they can never admit when they are wrong due to their incredibly insecurity. So we can continue to laugh at their constant attempts for attention. :-)
July 15, 2008 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cute: cowardly hate-filled trolls.
I guess this is an improvement over the typical labels by the Dear Leader's followers in recent months. I'll take that as a positive sign.
Have you ever read about cult followings or studied any history at all?! Who else gets lifesize pictures paraded around by adoring followers? Hussein, Hitler, Mussolini, Kim Jon-il, al-Gaddafi, Iran's Ayatollah... Wow, great company. Go for it is all I can say...
July 15, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Weaver - Please go on your fucking "49-country tour" and don't come back till Jan 09.
P.S. to others : This troll, in an earlier post, claimed to have visited 49 countries where they spoke only English.
July 16, 2008 3:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I had a lifesize poster of Clint Eastwood when I was a kid...he's still the man!
July 16, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bill Clinton was a successful governor with a record. Obama is barely a senator. He'd better not screw up on his trip. He can't afford any mistakes.
July 15, 2008 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matthew Weaver?!?! Is it March again?!
July 15, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like I said mon chere - plus ca change. First Gotalaff posts a Reader's Comment and here comes Weaver.
July 15, 2008 9:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Early summer break and all... I've been amused at the buyer's remorse I keep reading about Obama. Anyway, our now 10-month old twins are keeping me increasingly busy.
Work schedules permitting, I'll be putting up new versions of my own websites in the coming days and in time for Denver.
Can't speak for GOTTALIFE, but I do have a life outside of reading/writing on the blogs.
July 15, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anyway, our now 10-month old twins are keeping me increasingly busy.
That's often the case when Social Services steps in.
July 15, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent. You have a great sense of humor.
July 15, 2008 10:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I, for one, miss gotalife. MW is someone we sure can live without....lol.
July 15, 2008 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, you hurt my feelings. Are you simply bothered by provocative questions like why/how you explain your cult following for Obama with lifesize pictures in parades ala Hussein, Hitler, Mussolini, Kim Jon-il, al-Gaddafi, Iran's Ayatollah. I mean, really, that does have to give you pause.
July 15, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
haha, how provocative...
July 15, 2008 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
didn't give me pause - it was the greatest 4th of July parade I've ever seen. Code Pink marched against the war; for favors they gave out candy, as usual, but they also gave out "We've Been Ambushed" bumper stickers.
A group of peace workers from Taos who just got back from Iran marched with an Irani woman and they held a banner against attacking Iran; there was 1 impeachment "float," a bunch of green entries and they were registering people to vote up and the two blocks of street they have in Arroyo Seco.
I loved every second of it.
July 15, 2008 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did they visit Iran on behalf of Obama? Can we get some pictures? Protesting America from an overseas location, namely one that has hostile relations with the U.S. Priceless. Next we get Obama going overseas--will he criticize America, too?
Look, don't get me wrong, I protested Reagan in hte 80s, after being in the Navy and outside the Strait of Hormuz. I've opposed both wars in Iraq. But, never, ever, would I go to a foreign country to protest or criticize America. People have never forgiven Jane Fonda for this in the 60s and it is a total discredit to anyone claiming to be loyal, patriotic Americans. We keep our dissent and criticism at home. Maybe that's a bit conservative view, but I truly think, regardless of the candidate or circumstances, it is totally discrediting within mainstream American politics.
This is a tightrope that Obama walks when he goes to Europe for a campaign trip. Anything he says that can be construed negatively will be used against him and rightly so. In this he should have followed McCain's lead and took low-profile trips. Again, it shows his lack of experience and it is likely to seriously bite him.
July 15, 2008 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Were you beaten as a child? I think Obama gets what he needs to do, but thanks for the "tips"
July 15, 2008 10:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain doesn't know shiite!
July 15, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's been said already, but bears repeating ad nauseum. It's McCain who doesn't understand the differences between the Shiite and Sunni. It's McCain that seems stuck in cold war mode when it comes to Czechoslovakia. It's McCain who now thinks that maybe it ain't such a bad idea for American forces to beef up in Afghanistan, even though this is a position advocated by that neophyte Obama for quite some time. It's McCain who wants to sustain the "surge" in Iraq while increasing the troop levels in Afghanistan by three brigades! He's gonna need to borrow that magic wand from Bush to get that commitment done. He's probably going to pull the troops out of the same hat he's going to pull from to balance the budget by 2013.
It can not be repeated enough. McCain is not credible! Yet, people believe, apparently on faith, that McCain is somehow more knowledgeable about world affairs. I'm beginning to wonder just what it's going to take to puncture this balloon of hype that surrounds him.
July 15, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama raises only $23.3 Million in June
His June FEC Report just went up and the news isn't good. Obama brought in only $23,348,774.15 in June, way lower than his February peak of $55 million and only just beating McCain's $22 million.
This isn't good news. John Kerry's fundraising exploded after he locked up the nomination, but Obama's didn't. Was his decision not to take public financing a colossal mistake?
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00431445/346069/#SUMMARY
July 15, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, his contributors need a break. If he averages 23 million for 5 months that equals 92 million, plus what he has on hand and that's still way more than public financing. I for one am not worried. He has plenty of cash and he is very frugal in how he spends it. No prob.
July 15, 2008 11:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Huh. The report is for May, isn't it?
July 16, 2008 9:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Drudge has it that the McCain campaign plans on towing a tiger cage with McCain dressed in rags, from which he will give his speeches to the crowd. The concept behind McCain in a cage is that voters will be reminded of what McCain's expertise in Foreign Affairs consists.
July 15, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
And Obama will give his foreign affairs speech dressed as McGruff the crime dog to stress his experience as a neighborhood watch commander.
July 16, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is indeed time super delegates switched away from Obama to Clinton. Make it happen. Obama is a flip flopping empty chicken suit slimy chicago style politico.
July 15, 2008 11:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Got a reply letter from my Senator in the mail today. She explained her superdelegate endorsement of Obama from months ago, giving as reasons the 2/3 majority he earned in our state primary, as well as her independent judgment. Funny, nowhere did she mention having first consulted Dem BillC, Foghat, or Goatlife! Very puzzling!
July 16, 2008 12:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shouldn't the poll say:
"63% of registered voters more ignorant on foreign affairs than McCain" ?
Just asking.
July 16, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink