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Poll: Obama Holds Healthy Lead In Ohio
We'd been wondering when the next Ohio poll would come along, and Public Policy Polling has just released one finding Obama holding onto a healthy eight-point lead in Ohio:
Obama 48% (50% last month)McCain 40% (39% last month)
The three-point shift is within the margin of error.
The numbers suggest Obama's problems with blue-collar whites in this industrial state may have been overstated: He's only trailing McCain among whites by four points, 46%-42%. Nor does he appear to have a problem with female voters: Obama's leading among them by 20 points.
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This is excellent news for McLame!
July 21, 2008 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes!!! INDEED!!! It's definitely McMENTUM!!!!
July 21, 2008 1:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ohio CAN be won.
Here's to Obama coming back from his excellent adventure focusing extremely hard on the economy.
July 21, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win Ohio.
Book it!
July 21, 2008 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
So Fogu, where can I mail the tape of me laughing at you?
July 21, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, let me get a piece of this action! :)
July 21, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it needs to be a tape of ALL of us laughing.
July 21, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm joining with you guys on the notice to fogu2...
July 21, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't trust PPP, but McLame is still screwed.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 21, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP has a decent record. It made some very bad calls in an election or two, but so did SUSA, the supposed gold standard. They're not Zogby or Insider Advantage. They use methodology that's so conventional its postively boring. They've been wrong once in a while for the same reason all the others have been wrong--the old turnout models are whack this year.
And noooooo, I'm not defending them just because they're based in NC and I'm kind of proud of them. Not at all. Perish the thought.
July 21, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
But just last week he was "struggling" with older women.
Is that Planned Parenthood ad playing there yet?
July 21, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes! :)
"The ad is running in Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Washington, D.C."
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0708/Planned_Parenthood_Action_Fund_Simple_Question.html
July 21, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does PPP have credibility?
July 21, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The last available SurveyUSA report card puts them on par with Rasmussen and Insider Advantage (and ahead of folks like CNN and Gallup). I'll take it!
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surveyusa-report-cards/
July 21, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's a Dem outfit so one could argue that it has a bit of a leftward lean. But then Scott Rasmussen is a wingnut and he's usually considered one of the more accurate pollsters. FWIW, Nate/538.com has PPP ranked 12th (out of about 30) and slightly about the average.
July 21, 2008 1:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
They've had ups and downs, but they nailed the Ohio primaries."
July 21, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
and north Carolina...........
July 21, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
obama have a nice lead in ohio and gallup... i wonder why, might his trip have something to do with it...................
July 21, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good news. I was worried about this one.
July 21, 2008 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Worry no more.
I guarantee it!
July 21, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Note that McCain only gets 11% of Democrats while Obama gets 12% of Republicans. Independents side with Obama as well by 5. There are more undecideds in the Democratic camp, however, than among Republicans.
I've had a theory about party ID. This shows a 46-33 D-R advantage, which seems high. But national party ID has shifted from D+2 to D+10, so it's conceivable that Ohio shifted about the same. Also, skewed party IDs probably bring in a lot of Independents who voted for Clinton. Those voters can't be expected to vote for Obama and aren't really "Democrats" the way long-term partisans are. For that matter, Obama Independents may have drifted to "Democratic" status too. I bet if you polled Ohio and found a more likely 39-30 D-R ratio, you'd get 85% Democrats for Obama.
July 21, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
My concern with this is poll is that 46% of the respondents were Democrats while 33% were Republicans. In 2004, according to the CNN exit poll, 40% were Republican and 35% were Democratic. In the 2006 Senate race, according to CNN, the exit polls indicated that 40% were Democratic and 37% were Republican.
According to me, 46% Democratic electorate seems awfully high.
Does anyone know Ohio's voter registration numbers?
July 21, 2008 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
A lot of independents registered as Dems this year. This is true around the country.
July 21, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am still worried. In the primaries Obama did not receive as many actual votes as the polls predicted.
I think we should allow a margin of error in favor of McCain to account for this loss and work a little harder.
July 21, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's not true at all. SUSA, PPP, and Suffolk all got it right within the MOE. Rasmussen was only slightly off.
July 21, 2008 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
PPP is towards the top of the middle of the pack in the pollster ratings. They're not the most accurate but they're certainly reputable. This is probably within a couple of points of accurate. But even six points would be a good lead for Obama in Ohio.
July 21, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like the poll. The only thing I worry about is that they're projecting 57% of the voters in Ohio to be female. Since Obama is up by 20 points with Ohio females, this inflates his numbers if the male/female voter ratio flattens out.
Regardless, this poll shows Obama is up in Ohio by a very clear margin. Now I think we see the reason for McCain's camp having dropped the first couple negative ads over the weekend.
July 21, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's an eight point lead now for Obama in Ohio and Michigan. And Iraq has endorsed Obama's exit plan out of that costly war. Things are looking good for Obama.
July 21, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just watched the trailer for the David Bossie movie on Barack Obama. It scared the heck out of me. I have a headache. http://hypemovie.com/index.html
July 21, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you were being sarcastic Erline, because those videos were a joke..
July 21, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's foreign travels seem to be helping him more in Ohio than nationally: Obama 46% to McCain 45%. It will be intersting to see if the small candidates on the left -- Nader and McKinney -- are able to jointly equal the damage that the small candidate on the right -- Barr -- is doing to McCain. The HUGE disapproval of BOTH the Republican president and the Democratic Congress will make the upcoming months more than interesting to follow.
July 21, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you see the new Gallup daily?
July 21, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is actually a better poll than last month. Consider the party ID in both. This poll has Obama up by 8, with a party ID split of 46-33.
Last month had Obama up by 11, but a party ID split of 55-30.
So this sample is 12 points more to the GOP in party ID (more realistic) but only 3 points more to McCain.
I've seen these lopsided samples out of Ohio in every poll, by the way. If it was 40-37 in 2006, before the massive primary this year, I could easily see it close to 46-33 now.
July 21, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Vaughn,
Check out today's Gallup tracker. Obama is up to 6 now.
July 21, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's Obama's widest Gallup lead to date.
July 21, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
just send him the trailer of the dark knight.
OOO HOOOO HWA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
July 21, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
McLame sure expects a huge turnout in his favor from the Ohio/Alaska border
July 21, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Funny. Odd that McCain's Bordergate hasn't made it over here yet.
July 21, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Anybody notice that Bayh seems to be the surrogate of choice in Obama's absence? He's doing a good job too.
Chuck Todd predicted that Obama will announce his VP candidate before the start of the Olympics. It is beginning to look like Bayh might be at top of the list. He is very popular in Indiana.
July 21, 2008 1:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. Bayh had a smirk on his face last week.
Putting Hilliary's boy on the ticket may have been the price for keeping Hilliary on board.
It would be logical electoral college choice, and Bayh, despite what most of here feel, is sort of telegenic.
That said, I really hope we don't find ourselves with a Obama-Bayh ticket. I think Bayh would be there primarily to do Hilliary's bidding and that could induce congestion in the Obama administration.
July 21, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Byah can deliver Indiana, he's fine with me. I think that would seal the deal. Mcsame would lose for sure.
July 21, 2008 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bayh did a good job of putting Lieberman in his place yesterday. I also heard it mentioned that taking Reed along on the foreign tour might be a compatibility test. Could have been David Gregory who said it, if so, disregard.
July 21, 2008 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am glad you caught that. I think he is basically being given a test run by Obama to see how he does. I think others like Clarke were also given those chances.
I am certain he is near the top of the list and I have a strong hunch he will be the VP nominee.
July 21, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why on earth would he announce it that early? Wouldn't that work to Grandpa's advantage?
July 21, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bush beat Kerry by 118,601 in 2004.
Other parties secured 26,973 votes.
Does anyone know how many newly registered Democrats have come online in Ohio in the three and half since November 2004?
I am sure it must well in excess of 118,601, and more than the number of those who have since registered for the Republican Party.
(I suspect Obama signed up at least that number since January 2007.)
July 21, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana would be huge for Obama, that NC, and VA are definitely on the able. Anyone have any thoughts on Obama winning the south? Personally, I think that he could because of population growth, voter registration (black and young), as well as people talking about the possibility of him winnign the south. That makes disillusioned dems want to go out instead of sitting at home
SemiPolitico.com
July 21, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joe Scarborough, did you hear that? After you spent 3 days of programming carrying on about how steel workers in Youngstown will never vote for Obama, because of his "bitter" comments. Guess they don't produce political geniuses on the Redneck Rivera.
July 21, 2008 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scarborough is so full of shit.
He knows nothing about Ohio.
Or anything else for that matter.
July 21, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Geez, people, you're slipping. Greg tees up a line one would expect to set off a snarky gloatathon like "the numbers suggest Obama's problems with blue-collar whites in this industrial state may have been overstated" and no one bites? No Penn bashing? No Hillary snark? No making fun of Wolf Blitzer and David Broder?
This could be some kind of turning point. Apparently, its hit the point where it's not even fun anymore.
July 21, 2008 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's doable of course. But no popping the sparkling cider yet. I would take off 5 percent from Obama's numbers in any Ohio poll due to the Wilder effect.
Anecdotally, in my mother's coffee group (65 yrs and up), there are a bunch of lifelong Dems who are will never vote for a black man. One of them told a pollster he would vote for Obama, but confided privately that he feared Obama would bring in 'all blacks' to the cabinet. Much work needs to be done on the seniors.
July 21, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I recently met a friend's 65+ year old Mother from Western Pennsylvania who claimed to have to voted Democratic all her life (including against Reagan).
My friend embarrassingly said her mother had said earlier that she wouldn't vote for Obama because he'll favour "all the negros over all us Americans".
I agree. Lop off 5% from such polls.
There are folks in states like Florida, Massachusetts (not a type-o), Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, who are going to vote for McCain because of Obama's black skin.
This is all McCain has. It follows he would select a VP who could help him widen this crack. It's no accident that Crist, Romney, Giuliani, Portman and Ridge are in the mix here.
July 21, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any comments on the Bradley Effect in the Ohio blue collar numbers?
July 21, 2008 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not forget dubious election integrity in the age of privatization. Shall we call it the Rovian Effect? We can call upon the other 'effects' to help us pretend it doesn't exist. Wasn't Kerry leading Ohio? Didn't he also 'win'?
July 21, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The reason PPP has a (D) after its name on every polling site is because it is affiliated with Democrats. Its 11-point margin for Obama in Ohio in June was higher than any other pollster found that month. We'll have to wait for SurveyUSA, Rasmussen, and Quinnipiac to release their July Ohio numbers to know what is really going on there. I assume Obama is up by about 3 points in OH now.
If you wanna know how bad a pollster PPP can be, they were way off on the NC primary even though PPP is based in Raleigh.
July 21, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think it's the Bradley affect Obama will have to worry about, as much as the Ken Blackwell / Diebold affect. People in Ohio probably would not say they are for Obama, unless they really were. Not many liberal liars there, like you would find in Los Angeles.
July 21, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Blackwell is long gone now.
Ohio's Secretary of State is now Democrat Jennifer Brunner.
there will be no bullshit ala 2004.
July 21, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're all grateful for Brunner. But there's an awful lot to clean up from what I understand.
July 21, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I expect Obama's VP to be one of three people:
1. Evan Bayh, the one I'd pick.
2. Joe Biden.
3. Senator Jack Reed (RI) who is on the Obamapalooza tour. He is a former Army Ranger and Harvard Law grad.
July 21, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink