WAsn't Missouri one of the states that McCain had started blanketing with ads, and Obama, in comparison, wasn't putting much up in?

Well, I always knew that we would face an uphill climb here. I am not discouraged. This poll still shows McCain under 50%. It just indicates that we have more work to do, which I think we all knew already.

Speaking of resources, has there been nary a twitter about how much money BO pulled in June, or am I crazy?

Too early, but warning signs for Obama nonetheless. I'm hopeful his ground operation will do the trick at the end of the day. McCain has an unfair advantage and will continue to, coz Media seem adamant to hand it to him on a platter.

Obama has his work cut out.

At least we have this:

Obama Making Gains in Red States July 7, 2008 8:35 AM

According to recent polls, Sen. Barack Obama is doing extremely well in states that have voted Republican in recent presidential elections.

* Montana: Bush won by 11 points in 2004, Obama leading McCain by 5 points

* Colorado: Bush +4, Obama +5

* Virginia: Bush +8, Obama +2

* New Mexico: Bush +1, Obama +3

* Florida: Bush +5, Obama +2

* Indiana: Bush +20, Obama +1

* Georgia: Bush +16, McCain +1

* Mississippi: Bush +20, McCain +4

* Alaska: Bush +26, McCain +4

* North Carolina: Bush +13, McCain +4

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/

I've got two frames of mind on his investment in Missouri and his money situation overall. The first is that things are good to great. I suggest this because of what I've been reading over the Internet. Over at the Atlantic Monthly site, I've learned that Marc Ambinder's sources said that the cash is flowing nicely. It's not clear exactly how well it's going, but even if we fell short of the lofty goal of $100 million in June, I have to imagine that June's number and then July's number as well will be pretty big.

I recently made two donations. One was for $50 at the end of June, my first ever. The second was earlier today, when I donated $15, definitely because I believe in Obama, but also because I want to win a trip to Denver for the convention. I was considering donating $5 every time McCain does something ridiculous, but I might meet the limit by the end of next week.

Well anyway, if the money is coming in a great rate, then we can interpret Obama's recent moves--sending paid staffers to not only traditional swing states like Ohio and Michigan but red states like Indiana and Georgia and even deep red states like South Carolina, airing ads in these states, and increasing the number of staffers in these states--as a sign that he's confident it will continue. Even if his campaign is trying to psych out McCain's campaign, I doubt he would allow money to be spent if it was going to be scarce in a few weeks.

As for Missouri and other states where he might be ramping up his efforts, I want to believe this is a sign things are actually good. His campaign has internal polling that tells him a different story than we might see. My read of this move is that it's possible to lay the ground work now for not just a small win but a nice victory of a couple percentage points, particularly because McCain won't be able to match his efforts.

But let's say that the positive possibilities above are reversed. Let's say he's not doing as well as he would have liked with fund raising and that he is seeing some bad signs in internal polling. Then I'd say his recent moves are an attempt to fix the problem as soon as possible.

Either way, I'm confident in his campaign. And while I have nothing more than gut instinct to back me up right now, I have a feeling that as the weeks go on, we'll see Obama's position improve in direct and indirect ways, precisely because of the smart moves his team is making regardless of his position right now.

Looks like Obama's move to the center (right) is paying great dividends in Missouri. I've noted, too, that his lead has recently dwindled in my home state of Washington.

And here I thought Obama's cutthroat team of Chicagoans might deviate from the Kerry/Gore self-immolation strategies of yesteryear. Good thing for us that Bob Dole, er, John McCain is running on the opposing ticket.

Perhaps as these mediocre poll numbers continue to come in over the next few weeks, the Obama team will recall the recipe that fueled his rise to begin with.

I would like to know the specifics of this poll.

Missouri is a state where Obama can win a few counties only and lost a whole bunch and still win the entire state.

so if a pollster over polls rural areas it can give the republican a huge advantage.

I agree Ron. It is July and Obama is close.
Given Obama's constituency, polls are probably under estimating his support by 2-3pts and he will have a great ground/GOTV effort in MO given how close it is to IL and his 150 paid staffers (in addition to heavying-up on the Org Fellows in MO). That will be worth a couple more points.

So as long as he is close, it should be fine. All of the polls (except Zogby) had him losing by a good 7-10 points in the primary.
Granted, it would be better if he was ahead but a small deficit isn't anything to get worried about. Of course it isn't anything to get complacent about either so we have work to do.

As far as his ads go, I believe Obama is pacing himself. It is 4 months to the election, middle of summer - why spend now. He seems to be spending just enough to stay ahead of the game but no more. Seriously, I think come mid-August, you will start seeing a boat load of ads attacking McCain on all of his crap. It will have a better audience and the impact will be more lasting. Think Rev Wright. Who cares about that now?? Had that come out in Oct, that would be a seriously different story. We don't want to use all the McCain bullets shooting in the air. We want to use them when they will be the most lethal.

Basically this could just be statistical noise on either side of the margin of error in a race that is essentially a toss-up.

In any case, as things stand now Obama can still win big without MO or FL.

I'm not that concerned.

The Zogby Interactive online polls were worthless in 2004 and should be disregarded. Zogby's bro, who runs an Arab American organization, is a bigtime Barack Obama supporter to boot.

As for Missouri, I expect McCain to win it by about 3-5 points in November unless Obama has a landslide.

Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Ohio are the only 4 states that have gone with the winner in every election since 1964. McCain leads now in the first three and Obama leads in OH (which I hope is polled more often, along with PA, MI, and CO).