McCain's Obama-Britney Ad Buy May Have Real Money Behind It
We speculated below that the McCain campaign's new Obama-Britney ad, which is supposedly running on national cable and in "key states," might not have any real money behind it and could be designed merely to get free media coverage. McCain has done this before.
As it turns out, though, the Obama-Britney ad is already up on the air in the swing state of Pennsylvania, according to Evan Tracey, who tracks national ad buys for the Campaign Media Analysis Group. This suggests that this might be a real buy.
Indeed, Tracey tells me he suspects this one might have real money behind it.
"The ad seem to me to be something the McCain campaign tested and believes will work," Tracey says. "Therefore, I suspect this ad will be part of their rotation for a couple of days and not simply a video press release, but only time will tell."
Tracey added that the McCain camp might be reluctant to do another fake buy because it might make political reporters reluctant to cover future ads without proof of real cash behind them.
It would be interesting if this spot did test well and has real money behind it. It's too early as yet to know where else it may be running, but we'll bring you news of that as soon as we get it.















Where does the electricity tax claim come from? That strikes me as totally out of context.
July 30, 2008 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Republicans don't do context . . . or honesty. They try to win at all costs.
July 30, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it based on cap-and-trade, as FactCheck guessed for an earlier false claim?
http://www.factcheck.org/askfactcheck/would_obama_tax_my_profits_if_i.html
It would be nice to nail down both the mendacity and the innuendo in the ad.
July 30, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I think would be nice to know is whether McCain supports his own cap and trade plan! D:
July 30, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not according to Steve Forbes. And frankly I'm not sure if McCain even UNDERSTANDS his cap and trade plan....
July 30, 2008 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget about facts either
July 30, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm reading a lot of panicky comments in TPM today. I'm not unsympathetic. I'm a Cubs fan, have been my whole life, and I'm built to anticipate humiliating disappointment.
But really, a little more confidence is called for. One of Obama's greatest traits is that he doesn't panic, and his campaign reflects that. Yet I'm reading all these posts encouraging him to hurriedly respond to McCain's desperate advertising.
Incidentally, here's a link to the polling done in 2004. There's a lot of insight on the significance of current polling numbers to be gleaned from the numbers from 4 years ago. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
July 30, 2008 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm one of the handwringers, and I completely agree with your statement about Obama not panicking. I'm not suggesting panic, but maybe a little more of a response.
And that link you have? If you click on the "more polling data" link at the bottom, you'll get the polls for the month of August. And what you see is a steady decline for Kerry, and a steady increase for Bush. Relevance of August? That's when the swift boat ads started appearing.
The ads that the Kerry campaign dismissed as unbelievable.
July 30, 2008 5:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's not Kerry. And this isn't 2004.
July 30, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
But the media is still the braindead media that it was in 2004. Case in point: Dana Millbank was on CNN repeating the crap that he published today. The reality is that it's 2008 and Obama is a vastly superior candidate. But when has reality been a factor in elections?
July 30, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear what you are saying. But in 2004 the Internet wasn't half as powerful a tool for distributing information as it is now. And Kerry's biggest problem was being dark for all of August.
I think Obama has to continue to control the narrative. Right now he's on the economy; if he starts responding to everyone of these inane ads, he loses TWICE. He's got a $5MM buy planned for the Olympics where he's go to get GREAT coverage.
Hopefully surrogates will be out there today/tonight dismissing this crap. But Obama, the candidate, needs to keep hitting the economy (which he is doing quite powerfully today in those two town halls--which are not getting ANY coverage here at TPM in favor of this drivel).
July 30, 2008 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good suggestion about the polling link. But it's worth keeping in mind that Kerry got his boost -- and only started taking the lead consistently -- right when he picked Edwards as his running mate, and his lead through the DNC convention at the end of July. And during the convention and immediately after is pretty much the only time he showed the kind of lead (4-9%) that Obama has routinely.
Bush got a big bump from his own convention.
But what is most interesting is the Gallup/USAT bias, which consistently posted outliers favorable to Bush/Cheney.
July 30, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll go back and look at the Gallup/USA Today data.
It seems pretty obvious that they did some championship cherry picking to come up with the "McCain up by 4" number that the did.
July 30, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Party affiliation shifted from +11 Democrats in June to even in July. No explanation as to WHY.
July 30, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
confidence! don't you mean presumption?!
(sarcasm)
July 30, 2008 10:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd sure like to see that test group.
Will you be my new boyfriend? I love you for that - it's what I keep saying, only I'm not nearly as nice about it as you were.
July 30, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course, Tena, as long as I can get permission from my fiancee.
Right now, Obama is in rural towns in MO that haven't seen Dem presidential candidates in 16 years. Keep an eye out for the poll numbers in MO for the next couple of weeks. The man knows what he's doing.
July 30, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the info about the two town halls in MO that that haven't seen a presidential candidate in 16 years. This is key that Obama is doing this.
There's a lot of credible thought out there that Democrats just need to show up, present a plan, and ask for those rural folks' votes. It's part of how Warner and Kaine won in Virginia and I think McCaskill is advising him to do what he's doing in MO. That's how she won. Shrink the margins in the rural counties and carry the urban areas. It's would be a chapter in a book called "The 50 State Strategy".
July 30, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're going to burn good money on that?
'Intellectually bankrupt' does not even begin to describe the McCain campaign.
July 30, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
OMG! I did not know that Obama was a drug-addled piece of ass-wipe trailer-trash that can't keep his legs crossed . . .
Wait! Britney of the 'we should shut-up and just trust pResident Shrub' sound-drop fame?
We live in Bizzaro World.
July 30, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
poor britney-- seems being a bush supporter isn't helping her too much in the eyes of mcsame...
here's the video to which you refer. with, of course, mccain added in for comparison:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPEV6twzxmE
July 30, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we start a list of ways Britney is less of a failure than the Bush administration?
July 30, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Apparently JM's former campaign manager John Weaver, thinks JM's ad is childish and takes a shot at JM's new campaign manager by calling JM's recent campagin moves as "tomfoolery."
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/weaver_mccains_former_strategi.php
July 30, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have yet to see Obama or anyone in his campaign be as totally clueless as Kerry was and Kerry's campaign was.
Need I remind you who was running it? He just lost the primary for Clinton, too.
I have a lot of faith in this campaign - it's beautifully run.
CT - here's what I propose - if it actually happens that they start swiftboating him and instead of answering the charges he goes snow-boarding, then you will have every reason to panic.
;)
July 30, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Deal.
I know I'm being whiney. Too many papers to grade.
July 30, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not that I don't feel ya, cause I do.
I'm scared every day that something will happen and we'll never get the fuck out of here.
July 30, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mainly, I'm bored by these ads (and these threads on ads), not worried. I'd like to discuss issues. John McCan't- not so much.
I wouldn't mind Obama hitting back a little harder, but for the most part I trust the Obama campaign- they've been brilliant on just about everything so far.
That said, McCain's record is horrible and it should be brought up more often by, well, somebody.
July 30, 2008 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
No shit.
But hell, Josephcast, what would McLame have to say?
Cf: the last 8 years? That's what he's running on -
July 30, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
They are playing it in PA. It has to be "the white girl, black man" dog whistle. Nothing else about that ad is worth a damn. I think they are throwing good money down the drain.
July 30, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think so. I think this is the vapid/empty suit argument.
July 30, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
If so they are truly throwing money down the drain.
July 30, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
must be.
but maybe he's just trying to get there first? McCain is the long-time celebrity here.
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=2945
http://www.oliverwillis.com/news/2008/07/17/meghan-mccain-hanging-out-with/
to me this whole ad just smacks of jealousy of a younger more popular guy. it's sort of pathetic, actually.
July 30, 2008 10:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
who would respond well to this ad?? monkeys?
July 30, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I repeat: I sure would like to see this test group.
July 30, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Halperin.
July 30, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!
July 30, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
what gains more overall traction in a presidential campaign: release major ad buys that attack your opponent or releasing major ads that (simply) supports your candidacy?
it seems to me that mccain seems to buy that the former is the way for his campaign and the latter for obama. but of course, all things are not equal right now.
perhaps the obama camp is betting that all of the coverage on the political advertisments against him is not enough to trump the speeches, the discussions on foreign policy and economic policy which consists the coverage of obama's campaign.
July 30, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think McSame is just a whining, petulant little dck.
July 30, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope somebody just recorded the segment on Hardball today that just passed.
Congressman Barney Frank just laid it straight to the mainstream media over their constant distortion, over-analyzing, opinionated discussions they frequently make about every nuance Obama makes.
It was a refreshing moment to see, and the little worm Tucker Carlson was there also to get caught backtracking trying defend the media.
If you see it be sure to catch the part of Tucker squirming the words "Spare Me" when Barney catch him lying. :D
I wish I had a DVR. This would go straight to Youtube.
July 30, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
So all the foreign leaders who met with Barack Obama and liked him are brainless morons?
The Germans (Hasselhoff ad) and the French (Sarkosy shot, and luggage tag mock) deserved to be mocked to win political points? Is this the vaunted McCain foreign affairs experience at work?
I'm off the ledge now and I don't know if this add "works" for McCain. I mean why magnify the fact that your opponent is popular here and around the world?
July 30, 2008 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be fun to watch Barack go into "Give em hell, Harry!" mode. McCain is no Dewey, but can do with a good dose of salts in any event.
July 30, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama just found an opening. From McCain's townhall (via The Page):
Read my lips....
July 30, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jed put together a quick video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cFbJFYKkQQ
July 30, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't he get that idea from the olde guy he sat next to in the golf scooter?
Sad.
July 30, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's something I find odd about TV ad buys: I have to believe that most of America is like my husband when it comes to political ads - watch them once, then every time afterward they come on, America changes the channel or leaves the room -
July 30, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I figured this was coming, but not so soon. It proves Obama's forging a lead already, or they would not resort to desperation tactics.
Maybe they don;t realize, the Harold ford "callme" ads only worked at the last minute in a much closer race.
I smell Mehlman. Maybe Gillespei, too, which means Rove's got a finger in the pie, too, probably.
This is their inevitable "plan Z' which they were probably figuring would begin sometime in the last week of October.
Actually, it is a good sign that they are already floundering. McCain's going to lose more than he gains by giving it up to the same people who trashed him in SC in 2000. And that is what this ad represents, more than anything previously.
July 30, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I keep sayin'...
They are panicked right now - Obama's trip last week totally panicked McLame and the GOP.
July 30, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone here feel sorry for Britney Spears who by all accounts is trying to get her act together, the McCain campaign do realize that Britney is a "real" person with documented mental issues. I'm no Britney defender, but it's one thing to use a celebrity who is known for there political stances (Alec Baldwin, Streisand, Susan Sarandon, Jane Fonda), but Britney Spears is as apolitical as you can get, it just seems like in trying to get a dig in at Obama, they are also getting a dig at Britney's expense, and it kinda makes it more wrong for some reason.
July 30, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does anyone here feel sorry for Britney Spears who by all accounts is trying to get her act together, the McCain campaign do realize that Britney is a "real" person with documented mental issues. I'm no Britney defender, but it's one thing to use a celebrity who is known for there political stances (Alec Baldwin, Streisand, Susan Sarandon, Jane Fonda), but Britney Spears is as apolitical as you can get, it just seems like in trying to get a dig in at Obama, they are also getting a dig at Britney's expense, and it kinda makes it more wrong for some reason.
Paris on the other hand, I have no sympathey for the spoiled little rich girl
July 30, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa, double post...sorry guys.
July 30, 2008 6:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator McCain seems to be trying to prove the cynical adage that nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste or intelligence of the American people.
So Senator Obama tries to keep out of the gutter, and people go on and on bout how he's uppity .... sorry, presumptuous. If the Obama campaign even starts telling the truth about John McCain, not even getting close to the lies and smears of the McCain camp, then he would get hammered for being less than reverent toward the war hero who has never stopped fighting against his country's enemies.
Four times, Obama dropped people from his campaign because he believed they were being disrespectful toward McCain. End this with an equally cynical aphorism: no good deed goes unpunished.
July 30, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Start calling him:
JOAN RIVERS McCAIN.
July 30, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink