Exactly. I'm from Michigan and was told by everyone (including Clinton) that my vote wouldn't count and even told by Clinton supporters that an "uncommitted" vote was a sabotage vote for the Democratic party. After she starts losing, she pretends it's a civil rights issue to count the vote when she was the only candidate on the ballot. I don't think anyone really called her out on the full extent of the hypocrisy of that one.

I haven't seen any polls that say the primary is affecting the November vote, but I wouldn't trust one either, because the people who would say so are most likely Republicans or die-hard Clinton supporters who never would have voted for Obama in the first place.

I'm not sure that your analysis of the numbers works. While conservatives will probably come home to McCain in the states you mention, those numbers in total popular vote are more than offset by the large margins Obama will run up in California, Illinois, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, VT, CT, NJ, Hawaii, and probably MN,WI, Washington State, and several other states.

Coupled with larger African-American turnout (that should give Obama a greater vote total than Kerry in urban areas and in a number of southern states, even if he doesn't win them), a more enthusiastic Democratic base, and being more competitive in states Kerry wasn't (Kansas, Montana, Indiana, North Dakota, Virginia, etc) -- it is hard for me to imagine a scenario where McCain is 3-5% ahead in popular vote while Obama is winning the EV.

There are very few states (TX, KY, TN, OK, UT, WY, ID, WV, AZ, SD) where McCain seems likely to run up the kinds of margins that would make that happen - and of those states, only TX and TN are very large and it isn't even clear Texas will be a blowout as big as the past since their hometown boy isn't on the ballot. Unless McCain somehow breaks away huge in FL, NC, SC, GA, MS etc and closes the margin in traditionally Democratic states, the math just doesn't work.

In all polling, but especially this year, the challenge of predicting who will vote makes it hard to figure out exactly what the polls mean at this stage of the race. Different turnout models (national and state) vary in terms of key factors such as % of the electorate that is African-American, how many new and young voters will be brought in this year, what is the accurate party ID % to include in the polling mix, how enthusiastic is each party's base, etc. These days I think looking at each poll's internals is essential to making comparisons or looking for trends. From what I can tell, that accounts for a lot of the movement in some polls and the differences between many state polls and national polls.

STROSZEK,

I AGREE, I am not putting much weight on these "Daily Tracking Polls" Because the Fact is, Obama can still win regardless if he is TIE or DOWN in the National Tracking Polls!