Two thoughts:

1) I've always said it's important not to reject a poll just because we don't like what it's telling us. Having said that, this feels off.

2) If this kicks our asses into gear, then good.

I think many of us are taking for granted that certain demographic groups (blacks, youth, etc) will register and turn out in unprecedented numbers, as they did in the primary, but can that energy last? That's the task at hand.

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

As the post suggests...likely voters confined to assisted living facilities and nursing homes!

This is why very little energy should be spent on polls in July/August!

I agree that this poll and others that are close should motivate us into high gear, but even Newport doesn't put much faith in this poll. Note that it is within the margin of error.

From the article:

Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

I suspect that Gallup's "likely voter" criteria is skewing the results - in particular, the "how often they say they vote" portion. Obama's ground game has the potential to turn out large numbers of voters who have not voted before.

Ok, honest to god, this is ridiculous. One hour one poll says one thing, an hour later another says the opposite.

please - this is as bad as all the confictling medical research out there. One day coffee will kill you, then next day it is a wonder drug.

[rolls eyes]

I think this is beneficial for Obama supporters more than anything else.

The coverage of this will be tiresome, of course.

And there will be all the usual spurious causal linkages. Obama has alienated Ohio; the negative McCain ad (that very few people will actually see) is working; that "differentness" of Obama might start being a bigger issue....and so on and so forth.

Could be an excellent time to disconnect cable.

Wasn't the "likely voter" an invention of '92 or '96, designed to make whichever of those races it was look like more of a horserace?

The poll doesn't make any sense whatsoever. How can there be more Republican voters than Democrats? It is frankly impossible. The democrats have been registering more voters in the last few months than the republican.

This poll is so much an outlier its not even funny. I don't give it one iota of credence....the USA Today/Gallup poll is one of the wildest in swings of opinion.

Every other poll released in the last few days has Obama leading:

Research 2000 51% - 39%
Gallup Tracking 48% - 40%
Rasmussen Tracking 48% - 45%
Democracy Corp 50% - 45%

Heck even Fox News has hom leading 41% - 40%.

If any Obama supporters get sucked into fretting over this unreliable poll they really need to stop.

This is where this race stands. Obama leads from mid single digits to high single digits nationally. He leads in all the Kerry states (252 EV) and leads in many Bush states like Iowa, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana...possibly in Ohio and Florida. He is very close in Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, North Dakota, and others. McCain is NOT ahead!

It's nice to see that Kleefield is still firmly in the "bitter" category of Hillary supporters. When I saw this poll on RCP, I was expecting him and not Greg to post this story and take delight in what is clearly an outlier of a poll.

Republicans don't like Europeans. Since when is it a good thing to not have other countries like our potential new leaders? Wouldn't that be a bit warped?

In the immortal words of lolo, yesterday afternoon, August 4 is Obama's birthday. Let's make it a record breaking donation day.

That is the most effective counter to every bit of this bullshit.

The candidate who raised $52 million in June is not - is not - going to lose this election.

Good grief!

I can't wait to hear the list of reasons why McCain was able to pick up the lead.

Obama's failure to acknowledge the surge as a success.

Skipping out on the troops in Germany.

Americans are turned off by Europe's embrace of Obama the rock star. The 200,000 in Berlin was a tad too much.

He still can't connect with white working class men.

McCain's attack on his character is starting to work.

He doesn't have an energy plan and he's against offshore drilling.

The New Yorker cover.

They're going to bring out the big guns. I can hear Chris Matthews now. "Pat, why can't this guy manage to connect with the Dunkin' Donuts crowd?"

all this story needs is steam rising off of it, just like a hot turd.

I'm finding myself thinking bad words...this is NOT a good thing...

new mantra...don't listen to polls this early, don't listen to polls this early, don't listen to polls this early...

followed by...worrying is not constructive, do something positive, worrying is not constructive, do something positive, worrying is not constructive, do something positive

Let me continue to sip my lemonade ... Gallup was going to give me a head ache for a minute. I’ve got to get off my butt and do something this weekend. I don't want to wait any longer.

There is no Republican enthusiasm for McCain. He is a plurality default candidate that most Republicans did not want to be their nominee in the first place. Far less than 50% of Republicans who voted in contested primaries voted for John McCain. They voted for Romney, Huckabee, Thompson and Paul instead of John McCain. Democrats will unite further as they see the inevitability of Obama's victory. While Republicans who voted for other Republicans in the primaries won't feel the need to vote for McCain when they see the invitablity of his defeat. If one poll that is so out of synch with so many others gets Republicans exicited, their cupboards of hope must truly be bare.

Just something to chew on.

Could the Obama campaign had an inkling something like this was coming out? His comment about "You might even see a little dip in the polls" sounds positively prescient at this point.

If you recall the primaries, Obama pretty consistently underperfomed in most polls in states with substantial numbers of minority and young voters. I think you are likely to see the same thing in national polls now that we're in the general election. For that reason, I have continued to believe that the polls showing a close race are just an illusion so that Bill Kristol will be able to spout off in the NYT on how Obama hasn't closed the deal.

The cell phone anomaly alone is likely to give Obama a bump of several points in the election. Pollsters generally call land lines and most of the people I know without them are either young, minority or both.

The fact that McCain and his utterly incompetent, gaff-a-day campaign have been staying close to Obama in the polls shows a deep, problem with Obama's candidacy. And now McCain is ahead, coming in at almost 50%? Wow! This seems to be repeating the phenomenon we saw at the end of the primary campaign. Hillary was broke, her campaign disintegrating, and everyone knew that she had no chance win. Yet she remained close in the polls and won staggeringly large victories right up to the end. The only difference now, of course, is that McCain is a much worse candidate than Hillary. So what the hell is going on? Is it race? Hostile MSM? Negative attack ads? All of the above? Whatever it is, this poll is shocking news that can't be rationalize away. It confirms Obama's persistently sluggish showing in the tracking polls, and helps explain why his post-trip bounce has already begun to fade. We're looking at a McCain presidency right in its ugly, "real American", oil-besmirched, war-mongering face. Wake up people! The slime machine hasn't even been revved up yet! It's going to take half a billion dollars and about three miracles to get Obama into the White House, so you better start throwing garage sales and praying like crazy or kiss it good-bye.

Good. Let the country F**K itself.

Why r people so worked up over this poll? The pollster can't even give a logical explanation for the finding. This poll is what you call an 'Outlie.'

The commentator in the "likely voters" poll says that the Repubs were more "energized". This says to me that the "likely voters" poll OVERSAMPLED Repubs for there is NO WAY is the Repubs more energized than the Dems in this election.

Republicans fall in line.
Democrats fall in love.

Everyone that's going to fall in love with Obama already has. And some are falling out of love. He has peaked.

McCain will only gain as the Republicans continue to line up and Independents get more comfortable with him.

Hillary Clinton remains the best choice for president.

Good lord, its only one poll and a questionable poll at that. Look up in the upper right corner of the website, Obama is leading in all five polls. RELAX!

This election is far from decided.

Somehow, it seems the republicans are once
again driving the narrative, branding the talking points, putting Obama on the defensive--all this after a great tour abroad for
Obama.

We have a lot of work to do.

TROLL ALERT...PUMA ON THE PROWL

Hill supporters CAN'T GET OVER THE FACT THAT HILLARY LOST.

It is still very early in the race. Who cares what the polls say, now. We need to work like heck to make sure every vote gets to the polls and is counted. Not a sure thing unfortuntily.

Now if only we could ban polling 7 to 14 days before the election until after the real poll closes. That would be an important improvement to our democracy because we would actually have to vote, and People in California would not know if their vote really counts or not and go to the poll to vote with knowledge that every vote in every state has equal weight. Like what happens in Canada, all polls open and close at the same time across all time zones.

It sure is, Research Center:
Obama 51% MCBushSame: 39%

Of course, not mentioned by the media...

I would be able to dismiss this poll if the following were not true...

This poll was taken on Sunday...

Rasmussen's final day of polling (Sunday) was most likely tied. Obama's numbers are in free fall on Rasmussen.

Gallup tracking showed a similar weakness on Sunday, going from around +11 on Saturday to +4 on Sunday.

This is not the only poll moving in the wrong direction...this one is overstated though...

Barack Obama needs somebody with National Security gravitas as his running mate. Voters will only consider voting economic/social issues if they feel the safety/security issue is a wash. This will NEVER be the case if Obama brings on a Governor with no National Security credibility such as Kaine or Sebelius.

If Obama chooses Kaine or Sebelius, McCain will choose a strong security running mate and own that issue and ride it all the way to a November surprise.

I certainly hope Obama doesn't think a speech and a week-long trip will pull him equal with the McCain Brand on national security/foreign affairs issues. I don't care how right he thinks he's been proven to be - when people are thinking about their safety they want a track record. If it's not Biden, Reed, Hagel, Clark or the like I believe Obama will be making a grave error in judgment.

Biden on the ticket would put National Security on the back burner and allow the voter to consider other high priority issues, all of which I believe favors the Dems this election cycle.

There really is not one electoral vote count projection (and there are a number of them) that does not show Obama with a healthy lead. That is what matters, not the national polls/percentages. The electoral count wins the election. Heck, Obama is winning or is competitive in traditionally red states! McCain is in trouble which is why he is going negative so early. With the Olympics and the Democratic convention coming up, he has little chance to get a lead in the electoral count. Obama is on the right side of all the main issues (the war, the economy, etc.) within the electorate. And Democratic voter registration is way up over 2004!

How can this be? Shouldn't the enthusiasm of Obama's supporters vis-a-vis the relative apathy of McCain's supporters show up here?

Ok, a couple of things.
Yesterday, Research 2000 gave Obama bigger lead than Gallup/Rasmussen.
Res 2000: Obama +12
Rasm: Obama +5
Gallup: Obama +9

If you average out yesterday's Research 2000 and USA Today's poll:
USAT: Obama -4
Res 2000: Obama +12
Avrg: Obama +4

If you average out USAT/Gallup/Rasm from today:
USAT: Obama -4
Rasm: Obama +3
Gallup: Obama +8
Avrg: Obama +2.33

If you average out yesterday's Res2000/Gall/Rasm and today's USAT/Gall/Rasm what do you get?
Obama +5.5

Thanks for your data USA Today. We'll look forward to averaging out your data with the rest next time.

Oh, I know, we need a horse race.

No, "we" -- i.e. USA Toady -- needs a Republican in the White House. It's a Republican paper run by Republicans for a staunchly, and historically, Republican newspaper chain. Gannett has diversified media interests, including TV, radio and billboards. It needs to have good friends at the FCC, the SEC, etc.

And that's really all there is to it -- trust me, I know: I worked at that miserable pile of shit for seven awful years.

When it comes to dramatic poll results like this one, I would almost always recommend Nate's take at fivethirtyeight.com. If nothing else, it's worth following his links - including, here, an article on problems with Gallup's Likely Voter model.