Oh, bullshit.

We can debate cross-tabs all day long, but the fact that it's even close is upsetting. Ohio is ripe for the picking for Dems and should be in our column.

Rather than target this poll, better to get to work in Ohio and campaign like we're 10 points down.

http://strategy08.wordpress.com

I don't believe Rasmussen no matter what...Outflier...

Is this all the McCain ad spending having an effect? From where I am in Cincinnati, it must be at least 4-1 McCain ads on local TV.

Given the recent - and inexplicable - tightening of his daily tracking poll, it seems to me - and I have no proof - that Rasmussen has fiddle with his model - particularly re: party ID - that has resulted in a shift towards the GOP. (Scott Rasmussen is, after all, a wingnut)

That said, even if he's off and he's not off by 10 or more, which means our candidate is at least 1 pt down in reality. With the gas pandering and McCain's blanketing of the airwaves with lies and pictures of him as a POW, it wouldn't surprise me if there's been a shift in his favor in Ohio. As das noted above, Ohio is far from being a lock for Obama. And if he doesn't win Ohio, there's a whole collection of Bush 2004 states he's going to have to win in order to win the WH - ie, a much tougher job to do.

I'll consider this an outlier, honestly. I haven't seen a poll giving McCain a lead in OH, let alone such a huge lead, in a long, long time.

Numbers are just like the bible - you can make them say anything you want them to say.

I just love polls- they're like fads: here one day, gone the next.

What the fuck is wrong with Ohio anyway?

Why are they always stuck in a time machine every 4 years? Really that dumb?

Since Barr won a court victory over the weekend to get his name on the Ohio ballot, all future polling in Ohio should have Barr's name as a choice.

Almost certainly Barr will poll higher than what he actually received on election day, as some people finally decide not to waste their vote. My rough estimate would be to divide Barr's vote in half, and give the other half to McCain.

I suppose that the McCain-Obama debate rules have not yet been established with regards to 3rd party candidates.

Apparently Ohioans feel like they haven't lost enough of their industrial jobs yet. Apparently Ohioans don't feel that the economy is as bad as they want it to be.

"Please sir, can I have some more."

We can't celebrate polls that show Obama in the lead and then berate polls that show Obama falling back. I think we need to keep the celebrations in check. Focus on the news.

Let's be more proactive. If he has fallen so much in Ohio, what could be the problem that anyone sees? Why could it have happened?

I hate to be the pessimist, but living here in a small middle class neighborhood in eastern Cincinnati, the 10 pt lead doesn't sound too far off. Granted, SW Ohio, and specifically the East side of Cincinnati, is practically KY (hence Mean-Jean Schmidt) but there is alot of support for McCain around here.

Like I mentioned above, my guess is that the ads are about 4-1 for McCain. But more than that, they are angry ads about energy. We live in a neigborhood w/a bunch of people who own their own small business, plumbers, electricans, etc. They are sitting drinking a cup of coffee in the morning, reading these stories in the local paper (http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080721/NEWS0108/807210303/1104/NEWS0108) and realize that they need to fill up on the way to work. But it's going to be $75 again, and they are PISSED OFF. And here comes McCain's newest ad with the O-Bam-A chants that I saw this morning that is angry just like they are. Obama's nice ad that they may see once or twice is no match for the anger of the McCain ads on every day.

Obama doesn't need to win SW Ohio to win OH, but he needs to keep it somewhat close. It doesn't feel close here right now.

People, the race is a lot closer than many want to believe. Right now in the Gallup Poll he is polling at 3%. We should look into the Bradley effect. Something tells me that with Obama that outside circumstances affect his poll numbers. In other words there's not a lot of hard support for this guy. There's a lot of skepticism about this guy. And there may also be a backlash.

As ever, Nate over at FiveThirtyEight.com has an eminently plausible explanation of the discrepancy between yesterday's PPP and today's Rasmussen: party of it is party ID (Rasmussen thinks that OH is more Republican than PPP does, and Rasmussen is probably wrong about that) but also Rasmussen forced people who chose Barr to say who they would prefer between McCain and Obama. In other words, part of Rasmussen's prediction is premised on the idea that those Bob Barr voters will likely come back to McCain by November. This sounds very plausible to my ear, so I think that Das & al above are correct - those in OH should work as if we were way behind because it is likely that some of our present margin will disappear as disaffected republicans come back to McCain in the fall.

Outlier. Rasmussen. Pretty standard.

The numbers next week will be much, much better for Obama if the rest of week is as good as it has been so far.

Rasmussen will still suck though.

Look TenaX. I think the only way Obama can lose is by him thinking he can only win. That is how Hillary lost. Look at the news cycle, it has been a horrible 2 weeks for McCain but would you have noticed if you had only seen the news from cable and not on the Web. Not likely.

Don't get presumptious just becuause it is looking like a landslide for Congress. We have been leading in all the polls but they have been sliding down. This is not a Chickelittle call. Once you get to overcondifent, you start to fail to see what are the weaknesses.

Rasmussen is generally a good pollster, despite his slant. However, here's the thing:

Look at the other questions asked in the poll, about off-shore drilling, "is it more important to reduce gas prices immediately..." Though I think Rasmussen is good, the real problem is that I think the questions in the poll, if asked before Obama/McCain, would cause McCain's ratings to go up.

What scares me most about the tightening of the race - and let's be real, in most polls, it's tightening, even where Obama retains a large lead - is that the shift is inexplicable. I mean, seriously, I think McCain has been the big loser through most of the last three weeks on many, many issues. But even if we assume that it's a wash, that nobody "won" any of the previous 3-4 weeks, what's the deal? Should the polls remain essentially the same.

It's gas prices. It's almost certainly gas prices. Throw the McCain panders and lies into the mix against a guy many people don't know and who hasn't been on the scene for that long and people will go with the war hero they know who promises lower gas taxes tomorrow. (a lie, but there are many more low info voters out there than folks like us) Obama is winning the foreign policy battle right now but in many of the swing states, that's just not an important issue currently.

I also think that McCain's big ad blitz in the battleground states is having a modest to significant effect on the polls in those states and on the daily tracking polls overall. I don't think it's a bad decision for Obama to take a break on ad spending this early in the race - but he can't wait too long. Obama seems to be spending more money and time on his ground game in these states. Ads can provide a quick fix but their effect often doesn't last. A strong ground game can be the difference so I'm happy to see they're are focusing on that aspect of the campaign a lot.

This can all reverse back in Obama's favor, no doubt, but it just shows that in a year where the Dems should coast to victory in both houses of Congress and the WH, we at least have our work cut out for us when it comes to the presidential race.

I think Ogiliberal raises a good point about the polls: Obama is having one of his worst polling days in a while today.

Gallup down to +3 with O only having a narrow lead last night. ARG, Rasmussen both showing movement to McCain on the state level. I dont get it.

I dont understand why O isnt opening up more of a lead. More problematic, if he can't open up a lead when McCain's foreign policy has just imploded, when can he open a lead?

Polls are not taking into account what is going to be massive turnout for Democrats this year, to say nothing of those that have switched parties to Democrat this year.

Personally, I think polls are pretty useless this year, except to get some general trends.

Agree? Disagree?

Don't be so sure. They may not have been bothered by the actual *position* on FISA, but could well be responding to the weak, vacillating image he projected with that vote.

Or not. But the politics of the policy itself are often secondary to the politics of the narrative and image.

Someone remind me of Rasmussen and PPP's track records for accuracy.
This poll has startled me enough that I'm donating another $25.

Time Magazine has recently published a very friendly and respectful article about McCain. There's a NYTimes story in a similar vein. My first reaction was, Hmm, this guy (mcCain) sounds okay. Lotta middle class people still rely on Time and Newsweek.

I appreciate some of the very specific info on this thread about Ohio; generalizations about a whole state or type of people are useless, in my opinion, except to perpetuate a black-white, us-them, good guys-bad guys mentality which, folks, will not win us this election.

Look, McCain is white (did I say that?), male, "experienced," a war hero, and is not an evangelical. This goes down well with a lot of people and a lot of them live in Ohio. Many -- most? -- people do not vote based on policy (NAFTA, for instance); they vote their guts. Exception may be on war. Many guts will say, I donno about that young, inexperienced, black man. Fact of political life. So the comments here about donating and working harder are right on the button.

And let is not forget the Bradley effect.

Tena,

I am no concern troll but I do think that we must assess realistically the situattion.

One day one poll has Obama up 8 in Ohio and the next day he is down 10.

Average both polls and it's a wash.

It's the ground game folks.

Well even if college kids had land phones they are all out of school for the summer. So July polls really don't give the full picture of a state in November.
And Rasmussen may be more trustworthy in the primary than the general because it is run by a wingnut. At this point, I don't trust any republican because they are desperate.

Oops, never mind - I see the number when leaners are included.

I guess Ohioans haven't been kicked in the balls hard enough by Republican policies. Please sir, may I have another?

I have had a creeping fear about this election for awhile that has nothing to do with the candidates background.
The problem for the Democratic candidtate is that the Republican brand gets a pass in media and in many peoples minds. What needs to happen is that the current situation, the economy, the war, the energy costs, all need to be tied to the republican party. It's an ugly truth but when things go bad the people need a scapegoat. The republicans have always understood this and have built a long term propaganda campaign around making liberals america's permanent scapegoats. By running a relentlessly optimistic campaign Obama runs a risk; a risk that the public will not blame the republicans for the bad things that are happnening and instead stick to the familiar and accept the GOP advertising that continues to blame liberals for everything that is going wrong. If obama doesn't do it himself, someone from the liberal side has to do it. And my understanding is that Obama has shut down the liberal 527s so that not attack messages are going out. (I hope I am wrong here)

The point is that when things get ugly people get angry. Republicans are masters at harnessing this anger and placing it on liberals, despite the facts of the case. The Democratic party needs to be working to placing blame on the republican party. And I don't see any efforts to this effect. This could explain the ohio poll result, the energy cost scapegoating is working. The republicans are getting off the hook for the mess they made because we're not telling people why they should be angry at the republican party.

How does McCain call out Obama for his lack of patriotism, lie about Obama's position on nuclear power/alt energy, distort Obama's position on Iraq, while flip-floping his foreign policy into a near mirror image of Obama's?

And for the final touch, McCain alleges 'media bias.' One would think journalists who have been cutting McCain a lot of slack might not continue doing so if the old man keeps questioning their integrity.

I think this poll is BS and we shall all agree. I think when we see polls favoring Obama we should all high five or fist bump if you will and when we see the opposite I think we should just say that it is all BS. That is how one wins an election, Hillary style. This poll sucked but guess what, IT sucked! Anyone has criticism, hey PLEASE DONT LECTURE ME. Next poll will be positive for Obama, and guess what, we will all be talking about how Obama is going to wipe this election.

Pie in the sky I tell you. The media is reporting crap on all the McCain blunders. In fact they are reporting the opposite.

But hey, let's all high five each other or fist bump until election day.

Rasmussen just recently posted his Senate numbers for Colorado. Udall still leads but only by 4, 47-43. (w/leaners it's closer, 49-46) Last month it was Udall 49-40. The big shift - as we seem to be seeing in all of Rasmussen's recent polls - is among the independents. In June, Udall had a 21 point lead among indies, now it's down to 4.

Allow me to propose a theory. I've heard several people argue that the indies these days may lean more to the GOP because less people are willing to say that they are Republicans. At the same time, more and more indies are switching to the Dem column, increasing Dem numbers. Perhaps Rasmussen hasn't adjusted his party ID to account for this, which may have been a shift that has occurred in just the past 2-3 months.

Then again, it's not just Rasmussen - the ARG numbers for FL in NH from today also show a significant shift away from Obama and towards McCain

I'm at a loss, to be honest. Again, is this gas crap actually working, not just for McCain but for the GOP in general?

Good grief! McCain was wrong on the damned war to begin with and supported the biggest foreign policy disaster in the past 40 years. And gas prices? Give me a break. Off-shore drilling right now MIGHT yield results in 2012 and MAYBE would reduce the price of gas then by TWO CENTS A GALLON.

Everything is a damned mess and Ohioans know that as well as anyone else. And if you support a change then give in one or more ways with money, time or shoe leather. How do we beat the media? We go out and talk to our neighbors and identify those who will vote for Obama and make sure they go out and vote for Obama in November.

Do NOT believe these polls. It is damned July.

Ohio is Clinton country and it is going to McCain.

All those bitter people clinging to their guns and bibles will be voting for McCain.

McCain 08!

It seems the Obama campaign hasn't really been defining McCain;

McCain cannot be defined. He has been on the national stage for decades. People know him.

Obama OTOH is a blank slate. The GOP is going to have fun filling in the blanks.