McCain Adviser: We're Outspending Obama Three-To-One On TV Ads
Over the past several weeks, a whole bunch of you have written in from all over the country to say that it seems like John McCain is outspending Barack Obama on ads in your areas.
Well, here's something that may -- repeat, may -- shed some light on this.
On the McCain conference call about the combined $94 million he and the RNC have in cash on hand, campaign manager Rick Davis claimed that they were outspending the Obama team by a large margin.
"We have spent up until last week probably over $10 million more than Obama has in the last two months on television advertising," Davis said, adding: "From April to this point, we've spent almost three times the amount of TV spending that Obama has."
Is it true? The Obama campaign declined to respond to Davis' claim, saying it doesn't comment on its ad buys.
It's not easy to verify or disprove this. Such claims are typically based on what a campaign's ad buyers are telling campaign aides about what the other side is spending. We're going to try to dig into this in the days ahead and see if we can settle this.
Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton responds: "We are proud of the more than 1.7 million contributors to our campaign who are committed to changing Washington and are simply not surprised that John McCain and President Bush have been able to raise millions of dollars for the McCain campaign last month, much of it from Washington lobbyists."
Late Late Update: Here's the audio from the conference call:
I'm not sure this a bragging point. They are outspending him 3:1 and STILL losing? I get that they are trying to brag about their financial advantage, but it says something that it's not translating into a bump in the polls.
July 10, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree.
It just makes me think the crappier the product, the more you need to advertise.
July 10, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is letting McCain Blow his proverbial wad early.
July 10, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
LMAO!
July 10, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
From April to this point? Do they count Obama's primary spending?
Anyhow, I actually believe them. And I believe that Obama has outspent them on a monthly basis.
Because Obama is investing far more in salary and staff on the ground and opening infinitely more offices.
July 10, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably not. There is no way McCain outspent Obama in April and May, for instance. I mean, look at Pennsylvania for crying out loud.
July 10, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry you voted for Bush. Hopefully you are too.
July 10, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
"spending more on staff"....
From Kos:
Now, this isn't McCain, specifically, but it suggests that the RNC isn't spending its money on staffing issues either.
And Obama just deployed, what, 150 workers to Missouri, while McCain has some ads on TV?
July 10, 2008 5:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
the ground game is important and a strong suit of Obama.
if I understand your point, this whole thing is more bark than bite, though bark does count some, I believe in the grassroots.
July 10, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would say more bark than bite at this point. I don't think it was the advertisements that eventually won Obama the nomination, and I don't think advertisements will win McCain the presidency. It's getting people to the polls, and the more boots on the ground, the better.
It's nice not to be squabbling for once. : )
July 10, 2008 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary tried this for the Missouri primary on Super Tuesday in February. No ground game and hit the air with ads in the last couple of weeks. This didn't take into account that Obama supporters had been going door-to-door in their neighborhoods since September.
Result was the surprise the Hillary supporters here got when the metropolitan results finally came in and she lost.
Take the Missouri 150 and multiply by at least 10 to get to the number of dedicated Obama supporters who are part of the field game today.
July 10, 2008 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they've been spending like that, shouldn't McCain's poll numbers look a little bit better? Maybe the ads are having the opposite effect?
July 10, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
To be fair, he has improved in places like Missouri. And I haven't seen a ton of battleground polls in places like OH, CO, etc. lately.
July 10, 2008 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
For me this adds the final piece of the puzzle. If you look at the trends, Obama should be way the hell up over McCain. Maybe this explains why Obama is only slightly way the hell up over McCain.
Does this actually hurt McCain? For all of his straight talk about campaign finance reform, to then come out and basically say "we have $94 million between us and the RNC..." I don't know. Something isn't sitting well with me on that.
July 10, 2008 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think it makes a difference, no one sees McCain as Mr. Campaign Finance anymore.
July 10, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
No one cares where the money comes from on the Republican side. Obama is getting outspent, HRC supporters are not jumping in enough, in my opinion, and McCain probably does have a sh**load of money. The ads are everywhere.
July 10, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
They're cooking the books. McCain Campaign + RNC > Obama Campaign + DNC.
The DNC is sucking air and the RNC is cleaning up. If McCain was winning the head to head fundraising race against Obama's campaign, they'd have said so.
And as it happens, I just blogged this andit is not excellent news for McCain.
July 10, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The McSame campaign is running ads heavily in Ohio.
But you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.
People in Ohio are simply sick of the GOP.
That's why they lost most of the statewide offices in 2006, and why the Dems are poised to pick up 3 house seats and an Obama victory in November.
Obama is running ads too now.
July 10, 2008 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think there is some validity to this. Again, we all need to contribute, be it $5, to Obama.
I still feel his 527's/PAC thing was a HUGE mistake, but oh well, that was yesterday.
July 10, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. This is the take home point.
Let's. Give. More. Money.
I just gave another $50, and I'll probably give again soon, when Genghis has his party.
July 10, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good, I hope McCain is outspending Obama 3:1 on ads. If they are, it's a sign of good strategy on the part of the Obama campaign.
1) It's summer, which means fewer people are watching TV (there's a reason that most networks don't air new programming in the summer, after all).
2) The election is four months away and there are still lots of people who aren't paying attention, and won't start until after the conventions. These people will flip away from or tune out political ads right now.
Best to save the advertising dollars for September and October. That's when they'll get the most bang for their buck.
July 10, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
There's two schools of thought - one is that voters' perceptions/preferences get set early and likely won't change, the other is that people aren't really paying attention at this point and it's better to save up the ads/cash until later in the game. I don't know where I stand on this - I can see pros and cons with each.
One thing we do know is that McCain is going to be limited post-convention whereas Obama will not....perhaps letting McCain spend often and early is intentional? I don't know. It looks like the ad buys in MO have defintely helped McCain, but how strong is his support among the former undecideds who went his way in the most recent polls in that state or the people who switched from Obama to McCain? Some people might make their final decision based on an ad or two but I'm thinking that if McCain's improving numbers in Missouri are mostly due to undecideds leaning his way because they saw a couple of his ads and none for Obama, they could easily lean the other way after seeing some Obama ads, getting a visit from an Obama volunteer, watching the debates, the convention, etc.
July 10, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is a little of both, and so, to ignore anything at this point it a mistake. Think about this: Kerry slam-dunked most of the debates with Bush. And yet, the poll numbers remained absolutely unchanged. People made up their minds by September/October. The game was lost when the Republicans successfully determined the themes of the campaign, which were established in people's minds throughout the summer (Kerry: flip-flopper, Bush: keeps us safe - don't change horses in the middle of the stream).
One must relentlessly attack in order to establish a winning narrative and not let your opponent's themes take hold. Like Nixon claiming he wasn't a crook... being on defense doesn't work; that's dancing to the opposition's narrative. One must be ahead of the competition in placing ideas in people's minds about what the campaign is about, what the differences are between the candidates, and to a large degree, who the candidates are/represent.
The Dr. Phill thing is cute, but it seems the Obama camp hasn't linked it to a specific narrative. It is a temporary campaign moment which will carry no weight unless it is effectively linked to a core narrative in a clear and recognizable way. We already know that one theme is that McCain = Bush's 3rd term. But that narrative doesn't link smoothly here. The opportunity is being missed to create a more powerful narrative given the economic hardships that Americans are facing: that McCain and the Republicans are wealthy elitists who're out of touch with the common Jane and Joe (or something like that).
In any case, I point this out because it concerns me that the Obama camp is missing the opportunity to set the narrative - and the lack of advertising is just a symptom of this much larger issue. I don't know if they're just distracted by a perceived need to unify the party, or that building state organizations has become such a priority that they're taking the eye off the other balls that still need to be juggled. I don't know, but the absence of an aggressive campaign to establish narrative-dominance has me concerned.
July 10, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's a little early to say they're missing the boat on this narrative that Phil Gramm handed to them today.
In fact, I see the Obama campaign making this a larger theme of McCain being out-of-touch with ordinary Americans, just like McSame's statement today that Social Security system of payment (that's worked well since its inception) is an "absolute disgrace."
This narrative is developing right now.
Say if two weeks from now, there is nothing more about this, then I would say you're right, but I think this new narrative to bash McBush is emerging right now.
Hallelujah!
July 10, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hope so. Graham is becoming a major gift to the Obama camp, with his connections to the housing crisis, being McCain's top economic advisor, his comments and others by McCain that signal their out-of-touchness, and both being incredibly wealthy - this is an opportunity to turn the elitist theme the other direction. Elite, out of touch, and corporate greed are the themes to link to McCain. McCain = Bush is also good... the two themes work well together. But they must start hammering hard now. After the conventions is too late. They must shine the spotlight each time McCain and his surrogates do something that fits the theme:
"See! There it is folks, McCain and his wealthy elite Bush friends think the recession isn't real. They don't feel your pain. They call us wimps. But what do they know? They don't know what it's like worry what gas prices will do to their household budgets, they don't worry about their mortgages, or about losing their jobs. Well, maybe it's time to make them worry about their jobs! Let's put 'em in touch with what real Americans like us deal with every day!"
Something like that.
July 10, 2008 10:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree 100%.
If the Obama campaign does not use this from her to the convention and beyond, it would be throwing away a major gaffe gift.
July 11, 2008 12:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Kerry slam-dunked most of the debates with Bush. And yet, the poll numbers remained absolutely unchanged."
Uh, No. Kerry was 8-10 points down pre-debate, and pulled almost even afterwards.
July 10, 2008 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is time for the media to put to rest the refrain about the Obama campaign having gobs more to spend than McCain's. That was never going to be true, when you take into account the ability of Republican fat cats to give through the RNC. Had Obama not avoided limits on himself, he would have had no room to try to equalize things.
Also, blog people need to get off the marginalia and give Obama some money and support for running his general election campaign.
July 10, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. But just to clarify, we need to give to the primary campaign until the convention. He can't spend a dime of general election donations before then.
July 10, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bottom Line: People are ill-informed and ads work. For some reason idiot voters buy into them and vote according, not doing their homework. This will hurt Obama unless he can hit back with numerous ads himself.
July 10, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
When he says, "we've spent almost three times the amount of TV spending that Obama has," does "we" mean the McCain camp and the RNC? He makes it sound as if they're coordinating, which many have speculated.
July 10, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am sure they are! Bottom line: It will not stop and we need to donate. If they cannot stop FISA, for lords sake, they sure are not going to stop coordinating with our current system.
Please donate.
July 10, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
90% of his adds are about how he was a POW. We get it, he was a crappy pilot who should never have been allowed behind the stick of a fighter plane but daddy pulled strings.
How much of that crap can people handle before they get disgusted?
July 10, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't a point hidden in all of this is that McCain is outspending Obama 3:1 using primary funds he isn't legally supposed to be using?
July 10, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
hyper: So true, but you and I know that is not going to stop. I think we need to stop speculating ourselves and just donate.
Time is flying and Obama's numbers should be much better than they are......it's the ads!
July 10, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's. Give. More. Money.
July 10, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hear you both. I've been donating as I can.
July 10, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I couldn't be less alarmed. Let McCain burn his fuel. He's making the same mistake Hillary did.
July 10, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not exactly alarmed. Comparing the video of Barack today to the video of McCain, it's difficult to be alarmed.
But this issue goes beyond November, and in fact, beyond whatever we like or don't like about Obama himself. I really want to see the grassroots fundraising model work, so that the next Democratic candidate doesn't feel compelled to take PAC money.
The success of the small-donor fundraising model may also shape Barack's sense of what risks he can -- or can't -- afford to take as president.
July 10, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
None of this article is meaningful until we have the numbers for June. I do not intend to raise my blood pressure based on an innumerate analysis. I aim to keep it near Barack's 90/60.
We shall see.
July 10, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
No money for Nobama. I'm getting my $50 T-shirt.
An unguarded man says out his true feeling. No need for Jackson to apologize. He was speaking his truth and this is a free country.
July 10, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just contributed again to Obama online.
Hope I win the backstage lottery!
July 10, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I'm going to win the backstage lottery!
A tuxedo cat backstage would be very elegant, wouldn't it?
July 10, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like they'd ever let a cat backstage. Don't you know Obama hates small animals?
July 10, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Forget about it. Rush Limbaugh's listeners will win the lottery. YOu ahve no chance.
July 10, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
This deserves a huge:
WTF?
In search of a point?
Ummmmm, yeah.
Good luck finding it!
July 10, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just contributed again to Obama online.
Hope I win the backstage lottery!
July 10, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do people keep saying McCain is doing really well in MO because of his ads? Obama's "lead" in MO was overplayed to great extents, and was, it could be argued, an outlier. Obama's still doing pretty well in the state when it comes to polls.
http://www.pollster.com/08-MO-Pres-GE-MvO.php
If we actually look at the polls and the averages, such as the graph here on Pollster, we can see that Obama's steadily been closing in on McCain. Even though McCain is polling ahead of Obama, he's been on a steady decline.
Obama is clearly behind in the state, and has been, but not by very much, and certainly with enough momentum to overtake McCain if he starts really investing in the state.
Still, I think this talk that McCain's ads in MO are doing him a world of good are a little overstated.
July 10, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It's not easy to verify or disprove this. Such claims are typically based on what a campaign's ad buyers are telling campaign aides about what the other side is spending. We're going to try to dig into this in the days ahead and see if we can settle this."
For broadcast TV, one can find out about every ad placed by every federal candidate from the station itself. This public file is required by the FCC. Simply go down to your network affiliate (or other station) and ask for the public file. It can be a little work to figure out what's going on, but my experience (in Kansas City, MO) is that the folks a fairly helpful.
Another FCC (or maybe FEC) requirement is that federal candidates get the lowest rate available. I believe these rates are listed in the filings, but in cases where they are not, you can get a rate card for federal elections. This will allow you to calculate actual spending by a candidate.
One other point to note - some committees have rather deceptive or non-descript names. The community relations folks at the station may help you figure these out, but it is useful to note all federal ads by even innocuous sounding orgainzations. This way once you figure out who is who, you'll know for whom the money was spent.
Again this is only for broadcast. I don't believe that there is a legally granted right to know this for Cable/Satellite.
If we each research our own areas, and post results, we could get a pretty good picture of what is going on.
July 10, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Outspending 3-1 and still losing.
Uhh...I don't know if I'd be bragging about that.
July 10, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amelie is totally right. This is not irrelvant, and it isn't something to some yucks over, it is a fucking problem. The great unwashed listen to McCain's ads, don't you doubt it.
The solution is to get positively involved. Contribute, volunteer. Do it.
July 11, 2008 2:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
So let me see if I have this straight.
The McCain Team is actually BRAGGING that they have outspent Obama 3-1 in June and yet THEIR POLLING POSITION IS ACTUALLY SEVERAL POINTS *WORSE* THAN IT WAS IN MAY????????
Am I missing something here?
At this rate, let's hope they outspend Obama 4-1 o rmore! We could have an Electoral landslide!
July 11, 2008 6:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the Obama camp is deliberately downplaying their funds. Remember that PowerPoint presentation they emailed out where they themselves made the point of the RNC/DNC fund gap? Spending on ads ostentatiously would send the message that they're flush with cash and donations aren't needed. Spending on organization is a better investment, period. But it also provokes worrying like we have here on TPM that they're not doing so well financially, and thus reminds us that our money's still needed. This is especially important now, to compensate for all the hype over his $300 mil fundraising juggernaut after he opted out of public financing.
July 12, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink