Election Central Morning Roundup
Obama Arrives In Iraq
Barack Obama has arrived in Iraq, a big part of his overseas tour and his efforts to pitch his proposals on getting out of Iraq and refocusing on Afghanistan. On the agenda: A meeting with General David Petraeus, the man most credited with the surge, and another with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has endorsed Obama's proposed withdrawal timetable.
McCain In Maine Today
John McCain is in Maine today, a Democratic-leaning state that is favored to go to Barack Obama, as part of his campaign's plan to focus on economic issues while Barack Obama is out of the country. True to his campaign's themes, he'll be holding an event at the Maine Military Museum in South Portland.
Dobson: Maybe I'll Support McCain, After All
Perhaps James Dobson isn't so inflexible: The Christian Right leader who vowed before that he would not vote for McCain is now hinting that he just might endorse the Republican candidate, in order to stop Barack Obama. "His (Obama's) radical positions on life, marriage and national security force me to reevaluate the candidacy of our only other choice, John McCain," Dobson said.
Obama Pulled In $25 Million In One Day
Wow. The Politico took a closer look at Barack Obama's June fundraising numbers, and found this simply amazing stat: On the last day of the month, Obama took in a whopping $25 million. That's more than John McCain took in for the whole month.
Obama And McCain To Visit Megachurch Before Conventions
The two presidential candidates are set to visit Rev. Rick Warren's Saddleback Church on August 16, a joint venue picked out for before they officially become their parties' nominees. The two candidates will appear briefly on stage together, then sit down for separate interviews with Warren on issues such as AIDS, poverty and the environment.
Poll: Media Want To Help Obama Win
The meme that the press is helping Barack Obama definitely has its adherents with a new Rasmussen poll showing 49% of voters believe the media will try to help Obama win. By contrast, only 14% believe reporters are trying to help John McCain, and only 24% say most reporters try to remain unbiased.
CQ: Franken's Chances Go Down In Minnesota Race
CQ has downgraded Al Franken's chances in the Minnesota Senate race, changing their rating from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Republican." Democrats have high hopes that they can beat incumbent GOPer Norm Coleman in a state likely to vote for Barack Obama, but Franken's own problems on the trail have left him trailing Coleman in most polls.
i don't see how the media trying help obama win if we look at all the "scandals" obama had: flag pin gate,bitter gate, rev wright,need more white votes, looking for bitter clinton supporters etc.........
July 21, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL...media helping obama my ass.
this bullshit was concocted by clinton. it turns out quantity means favorability.
July 21, 2008 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey MSM pinheads: since after all your enthusiastic fluffing of McCain you still get blamed for wanting to help Obama, don't you see that you can't win that game? Just knock it off and do some straight reporting for once in your lives.
July 21, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
About the MSM -- I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Confirmation bias. We get a storyline from bloggers who agree with us. Then we turn to the MSM and expect to see the same storyline. When we don't, we say "they favor McCain." I don't know who they actually favor. But I do know that we're not reliable judges of the question.
In any case, Obama won't need much help from the media, if John McCain keeps performing the way he did this morning. Talking to Meredith Vieira he was barely able to find his way through a sentence. He was rambling and incoherent -- and worse, kept talking over her when she would try to ask a question -- but not to say anything pointed, just to repeat sentence fragments like "I have a strong -- hydro -- hydrogen -- hybrid fuels -- I have a plan."
It was a real train wreck.
July 21, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
You missed the oxygen.
And he kept on rambling about the same points over and over again, overlooking Viera's questions.
Great C-in-C material, I guess.
July 21, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think McCain might have been missing his oxygen, too. ;)
July 21, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
How were they able to get so many donations at the last minute in June? Was it just a strong push asking for money before the month ended?
July 21, 2008 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Then why is John (Flippety Floppety) McCain still considered a straight talkin' maverick?
It ain't the voters who keep pushing that theme.
July 21, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I say give him all the coverage he wants. Amplify every statement he makes. I'm sure he will be rueing the day he ever started in on this meme.
July 21, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
The way I understand it, I think the reason that you see $25m worth of donations the last day of the month is that they only need to give a break down of donations over a certain amount, I think $200. Anything other then that they agreggate over the month and report it as one big donation on the last day of the month from an address tied to the campaign.
July 21, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's amazing that Politico got that story so wrong. They could have just called the campaign.
July 21, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
The thing is if the person who wrote this had been paying attention to other candidates in other periods they would realize that as a possibility, since every single month you would be seeing the last day post numbers wildly out of line with the rest of the month. I think Clinton had a month that was just like that (maybe Feb) and it set off a round of questioning whether her people lied about taking in $X in a certain period of time, but it was impossible to definitively say because she had aggregated small donations at the end of the month.
July 21, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
An update ? It is ridiculous to suggest and accept the notion that people suddenly decided to donate $ 25 mil on the last day of the month.
July 21, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Goes beyond Eric's power to update, I bet. Sounds like the people at Politico need an update.
July 21, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not going to be updated. It's out there, which means it's true, right?
July 21, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
About the "Obama Pulled In $25 Million In One Day" section, do any of you think that it is possible that Obama's camp did in fact leak the $30 million for June number to the Times just to spark some end fo the month donations?
I don't recall the exact time table but it's certainly interesting. I think if they did do it then it shows some very smart use of the news and internet in tandem.
July 21, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the WSJ report came out around July 9 or so.
July 21, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama did take in the lion's share for June in the last days it might explain why they released the numbers late. Or maybe they were just trying to set up the media for another misstep while getting more donations in July in response to their stories speculating we're all burned out or too irritated over his "move to the center" to pony up. Nice twofer there if it's the latter.
Somebody tell the clowns at the WSJ and the Corner to keep telling us what Dems think. It helps Obama.
July 21, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, the media has an Obama bias. For evidence of this, just look at the coverage of al-Maliki's endorsement of Obama's withdrawal timeframe in the TradMed. It was horrendous. Even in the stories Josh has highlighted on the home page of TPM.com, it's downplayed and followed soon after with the BS "mistranslated" crap. Had al-Maliki told Der Spiegel that he agrees with McCain that we should stay there until "victory" and that we'll need a continued US military presence there for the next 50-100 years, it would have been top headlines. I'm sorry, but what al-Maliki said should have been a top story.
And just because the media is spending more time on Obama than on McCain doesn't mean they are in the tank for him - it just means he's a more interesting story. I think people equate coverage with bias. Over half of the coverage given to Obama is of non-issues like flag-pins and his supposed foreign policy weaknesses or inability to win over this group of voters or that group of voters. I welcome more coverage of McCain. Because nobody is paying attention to him, he's getting away with flip-flops, gaffes, etc., on a daily basis. And when the press does notice him messing up, well, that's just McCain being McCain - nothing to see here.
July 21, 2008 10:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I read somewhere the number of Obama stories to McCain's is 3 to 1. Even McCain's base, his cultivated boys and girls in the media realize what a poor candidate he is at this point. They'd like to cut him some slack and let him get his feet under his campaign if he can rather than report his daily contradictions and misstatements. Even they know the only storyline is shaping up to be "is Obama ready to be president?" It's all about Obama and McCain sounds more and more and like a man overboard watching the ship sail away shouting and waving his arms hoping someone will notice.
July 21, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
About the poll that the media wanting Obama to win. I want to see the cross-tabs. Is it a majority of whites who think that? Older people? Former Clinton supporters? What about racism? I bring up racism because it has been my experience that when blacks do well, many racists deny that such person could make that accomplishment without the help of others. So you see a person attributing a person of color's success to affirmative action and nothing else. And so on and so forth.
July 21, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The media bia poll is a Rasmussen poll and you have to pay for his cross-tabs. Rasmussen's daily tracking poll, which was remarkably steady for over a month, showing a 4-6 point lead for Obama just about every day, has now shown a statistical tie for the last week or so. Today it's 42-41 Obama w/out leaners and 46-45 w/leaners. 42 marks - by far - Obama's lowest number w/out leaners and 46 is close to his lowest. (I think it was 45, also recorded recently. During this time, McCain is still tracking as he has done since early June so he's not gaining as much as Obama is losing.) Obama's Rasmussen approval is 53 v. McCain's 57, also a reversal of what that poll showed throughout June. This all seems counterintuitive, given Gramm's whiners statement, Obama's world tour, Obama's continued solid poll advantages in the swing states, Maliki's "endoresement", etc. Has Rasmussen - who is clearly a conservative and Republican - altered his model to make it even more GOP friendly?
July 21, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
But Obama is not doing so hot in Gallup as well.
July 21, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, true. I think he recorded his lowest number in a while this weekend in Gallup - 45. Again, McCain isn't gaining there either - he was only at 42. (3pt lead for Obama - about the Gallup average) But what the heck is going on? Again, it all sounds counterintuitive given that events seem to be occurring in favor of Obama and McCain has had plenty of stumbles while Obama's have been kept to a minimum. I'm not saying Obama's numbers should be going up - tough to get people to pay attention this time of year - but why are they going down?
It's the gas thing, isn't it?
July 21, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
While talking to Diane Sawyer this morning, McCain referred to "the Iraq/Afghanistan border."
That's what I call thinking outside the box. Instead of transferring troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, McCain plans to transfer IRAQ to Afghanistan... brilliant.
July 21, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't the Iraq/Afghanistan border just another name for Iran?
July 21, 2008 11:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, a border region where we'll undoubtedly be greeted as liberators and showered with rose petals after an initial round of shock and awe. Also, after we and/or Israel attack Iran, Iran can pay for it out of their oil revenue. It's all spelled out in the McLiebergraham Doctrine.
July 21, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
The media is trying to help Obama win? Yea, they really went out of their way to help with the Rev Wright story. Let's just see how they cover the McCain gaffe today. McShame goes on GMA and talks all about the Iraq, Pakistan border? REALLY?
July 21, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am puzzled by the fact that he
and McCain are tied. . Is there a backlash that is brewing? Where people feel like that they are being told to vote for Obama?
July 21, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
What makes you think they're tied?
http://www.demconwatchblog.com/search/label/Presidential%20Forecast
July 21, 2008 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
The past two presidential races have demonstrated that the number of people who identify themselves with the two major parties is roughly equal. I'm not referring necessarily to registered voters. A lot of people base their votes on one or two issues, favor one party over the other and are unlikely to ever vote for the other even if they have never registered their preference. The so-called swing voters tend to be a particularly low-information group. Many of them are simply apathetic and won't even bother to vote.
So, with the numbers roughly equal, enthusiasm counts for a lot. People inclined to vote for the Democratic candidate this year are fed up with the way Republicans have run things for the past 8+ years. The Republican base is also fed up. They'll never cross over and vote for a Democrat but if nothing happens between now and November which mobilizes them, they might just stay home, in which case Obama will win by a large margin.
I'd be curious to know if the polls ask respondents whether they intend to vote, or simply how they are inclined to vote?
July 21, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is there a link to the quote? That's better than "Czechoslovakia".
Guess I'm a child of the Cold War too --- I didn't have to spellcheck "Czechoslovakia".
July 21, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's referring to McCain's reference to the Iraq/Afghanistan border.
July 21, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol that's a ringing endorsement by dobson.
July 21, 2008 10:29 PM | Reply | Permalink