Dems' Chances Improve For Huge House Pickup -- In Alabama
Here's an interesting House race that national Dems are watching very closely, because it gives them a shot at picking up an open seat in deep-red territory: The battle over Alabama's Second District.
In a sign of just how much the battlefield has expanded this year, CQ has rated the race as only "Leans Republican," which means it's competitive -- an extraordinary development, because this district voted 66% for President Bush in 2004, and the GOP advantage should be overwhelming.
Democrats, however, have a strong candidate in popular Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, who is going to get a lot of national money when he goes up against Republican nominee Jay Love, a wealthy state legislator. The GOP nominee just barely won a very long and bloody primary this past Tuesday night, leaving local Republicans very exhausted.
National Dems are encouraged that the divisive primary is likely to leave some Republican voters disliking Love, and open to a relatively conservative Democrat like Bright, who has been re-elected mayor by overwhelming margins.
Republicans, however, are optimistic for a few reasons. For one thing, Love will have no problem bringing in money -- he's a self-financier who has given his campaign $650,000 to date. Furthermore, he shares the Birmingham geographic base with Bright, which could help him eat into Bright's stronghold while also doing well in the deep-red rural areas.
Say what? Where? Alabama? This, combined with the news that Obama opened 6 offices in Montana makes today official "Say what? Where?" Day.
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 17, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This further illustrates the irony of BigO and the DNC sending money to down-ticket candidates, while the McSame campaign is whining about not getting enough money from other RepoMen and the RNC.
July 17, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
P.S. Cha-ching! $50 for Bobby via ActBlue.
July 17, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
With credit to Neil Young, "Southern change gonna come at last...."
July 17, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a fairly accurate article about what is happening here.
Bright is more than "fairly conservative." He almost ran in this race as a Republican.
Also, you need to change "Birmingham" in the last sentence to "Montgomery."
July 17, 2008 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dear Republicans,
We're just not that into you, ok?
Sincerely,
The Voters
July 17, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
CT,
You're on fire today!
:)
July 17, 2008 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not that it's hard to google and find these more obsure candidate's websites, but is there any editorial resistance to linking some of these candidate's names in stories like this to their websites?
Could drive traffic and increase exposure. Not that it's TPM's job to do that, but it would keep your reader base well informed.
Just an idea.
July 17, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love that Intrade graph next to the comments. Chance of Obama victory almost 70%. Chance for McBush 30%. Lovely. I hope that is also how the popular vote total comes out.
July 17, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
we love this site http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ href>
July 17, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Back in the day, the whole South was Dem. Well, sort of, anyway - they were "Southern Democrats" who were rather more conservative than the kind of people the netroots likes to think of as a typical Democrat.
During those days, the "Southern Democrats" were a constant drag on the party as a whole when trying to advance any progressive legislation.
The point of all this is that Bobby Bright is very much in that "Southern Democrat" mold, as have been our other recent Southern pickups, for example Travis Childers.
Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather the seat be held by a conservative "Southern Democrat" than by a Rethug ... but at some point we'll want to give some thought to the "better" part of "more and better Democrats".
That point is not this cycle, however. Maybe not any cycle near-term. But at some point the issue will arise, as as we elect people like Bright I think it's worth noting that we'll probably want to revisit this at some point in the future.
But that's then, and this is now. For today, it's enough to take the seat. Improving the seat is a conversation, but it's a conversation for another day.
July 17, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The official Corporate Media line these days about the presidential race seems to be that Obama is losing his edge nationally...how come he seems to be doing well and even gaining ground in most battleground states?...
What gives?
July 17, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink