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DCCC Reserves Over $34 Million In Ads For This Fall
We've just obtained from a Democratic source a long list of 31 races that the DCCC has decided to target with ads this fall -- a list that offers a glimpse into the national Dems' view of which Republican seats are ripe targets and which Dems are vulnerable.
The DCCC's list adds up to over $34 million on TV ads this September and October in 31 targeted districts, a move designed to swamp the NRCC with the Dems' huge cash advantage.
The list suggests that Democrats see a very wide playing field this November. About two thirds of the money is going to districts currently held by Republicans, many of them in traditionally tough areas for Democrats.
For example, the Dems are planning to spend $1.2 million on the open seat of New Mexico Congressman Steve Pearce, and $1.5 million against incumbent Michigan Republican Tim Walberg -- both of which have been traditionally viewed as Republican safe seats.
It's highly unusual for the party committees to disclose their ad buying strategy, and the DCCC declined to comment.
Full list after the jump.
District Incumbent Buy Amt. AK-AL Young (R) $586K AZ-01 Renzi (R) - Open $1.7 M AZ-05 Mitchell (D) $1.7 M CO-04 Musgrave (R) $667K CT-04 Shays (R) $697K FL-16 Mahoney (D) $1.5 M FL-24 Feeney (R) $1 M IN-09 Hill (D) $1.6 M KS-02 Boyda (D) $1.2 M KY-03 Yarmuth (D) $659 K LA-06 Cazayoux (D) $723 K MI-07 Walberg (R) $1.5 M MI-09 Knollenberg (R) $1.1 M MN-03 Ramstad (R) - Open $1.4 M MO-09 Hulshof (R) - Open $941 K NC-08 Hayes (R) $1.6 M NH-01 Shea-Porter (D) $564 K NJ-07 Ferguson (R) - Open $1.8 M NM-01 Wilson (R) - Open $1.3 M NM-02 Pearce (R) - Open $1.2 M NV-03 Porter (R) $916 K NY-13 Fossella (R) - Open $1.3 M OH-01 Chabot (R) $928 K OH-15 Pryce (R) - Open $1.2 M OH-16 Regula (R) - Open $1.3 M OR-05 Hooley (D) - Open $1.2 M PA-04 Altmire (D) $554 K TX-22 Lampson (D) $1.1 M TX-23 Rodriguez (D) $707 K VA-11 Davis (R) - Open $1.3 M WI-08 Kagen (D) $475 K
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Nothing for Kay Barnes (former mayor of KC) running against Sam Graves in MO-06? Damn disappointing.
July 11, 2008 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aren't you tipping off the Republicans with this story?
July 11, 2008 12:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey! Are you tipping off the RepoMen that they're being tipped off? Shhh!!!
July 11, 2008 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, this list, not corroborated btw, forces Republicans to spend big bucks in these districts. That is the plan. Democrats out-raised Republicans by huge majorities in both the House and Senate committees. It is wonderful to know the Democrats have raised so much money. I am not alone in my estimation of Republicans. I am a completely disillusioned Republican (along with hordes of other Republicans) and this is the only way the two party system can be salvaged. Republicans need to be forced to return to some legal stand by the outcome of this election, ie losing so many seats. Their leadership has been the most corrupt of any administration in modern history. Republicans are in much need of a big shellacking in order to force reform. Otherwise, the Republican brand is doomed.
July 13, 2008 1:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is not really a "buy" per se, but rather a reservation. The DCCC is securing the time, and it's there if they need or want it as fall approaches -- but be assured, they can back out of any of these commitments if they so choose.
July 11, 2008 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for updating your title.
July 11, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Boy, am I delighted to see Chris Shays name on this list.
And equally delighted not to see Chris Murphy's name on it.
July 11, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Graves is a tool and Barnes is a strong candidate. Kay has a real shot. I am shocked that the DCCC isn't going to put any money in her race.
I am going to send Kay some money. If you want to contribute, her website is www.Kay4Congress.com.
July 11, 2008 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
okay, anyone else picking up on the disconnect here?
"Dems' huge cash advantage"
First we hear reports that the DNC is strapped for cash, but next we hear they have a huge advantage. First we hear Obama is flush in cash and doesn't need public funds because he'll raises unheard of amounts of cash, but then we hear the fundraising isn't going nearly as good and the repubs are back to having more money than the dems!
well, which is it? do the repubs have more loot or the dems? inquiring minds would like to know!!
July 11, 2008 1:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ready for some alphabet soup?
The DNC is behind, big, the RNC.
On the other hand, the DSCC and DCCC are (or were, at least report) way ahead of their Republican counterparts. Hence, this story.
Does this clear it up, or make your head ache?
July 11, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Basically they're are four different Democratic sources of spending in the fall election:
1. Obama for President
2. Democratic National Committee (DNC)
3. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)
4. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC)
They're all structured a little bit different in how they allocate their resources towards campaigning.
July 11, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks for the alphabet lesson! sorry if i got them all confused. still confused/concerned the DNC has so much less cash than the RNC...
July 11, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Simple, the obama/clinton clash in the primaries. They sucked alot of money that would have been donated to the dnc. Now if clinton would have bailed in February when she lost the nomination, the dnc and obama would now be up by a couple hundred million or so. However, it is what it is.
July 11, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The DCCC already lists ID-01 in their Red to Blue Program. I'm hopeful they'll help Walt Minnick out with some ad buys in Idaho. Minnick is a strong candidate and the state loathes Sali. Maybe because advertising is so cheap in Idaho there's no need to "reserve" time now; let's see if the DCCC steps up on this one. It's a cheap pick-up.
http://dccc.org/page/content/redtoblue/
July 11, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure if that is good news or bad news for the Dems in CA-04 which became open when Doolittle decided not to run for reelection. Is it good news because Charlie Brown has a real shot at turning this red district blue or is it bad news because he has no chance?
In either event, it must be that a red district in a blue state does not fit the DCCC goals.
July 11, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am surprised to see OR-05 on this list, especially with a relatively large dollar commitment. I see this race as a near slam-dunk for the Democrats now, with Republican candidate Mike Erickson having shot himself in the foot - or perhaps another part of his anatomy - with the controversy over his girlfriend's abortion several years ago.
My personal choice for a bigger investment would be Don Cazayoux in LA-06. This is a long-time Republican held district that was recently picked up in a special election, won narrowly against a weak, perennially-losing Republican candidate. This will be a tough one but would be a great prize to win.
July 11, 2008 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am disappointed to see that Darcy Burner (WA-08) is not on the list.
The DNC has less cash-on-hand than the RNC, but they used it to build party organziations in every state, and I think we'll see that pay off handsomely. And of course, the DCCC will bury the RNCC.
July 11, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really surprised that MO-09 is on the list and MO-06 is not. Hulsoff (R MO-09) is the likely nominee for Governor and His seat is more Republican due to 2002 redistricting than whewn Hulsoff first took the seat.
OTOH, Barnes is a really strong candidate for MO-06 as a native of St. Joseph and former very popular mayor of Kansas City.
July 11, 2008 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kay Barnes has shown a great ability to raise money and is well known in the district...that is one reason they aren't investing there. But District 09 is a winnable seat especially with at least two strong potential candidates running in the primary - Former House Speaker Ken Gaw and 2004 Lt. Gov Nominee Ken Jacob. Either would put this district in play with a less than stellar GOP field.
So I think they are very smart to invest money there. Also Obama is going to have 150 paid staffers in Misouri in the fall. With this money and Obama staffer working for the whole DEM ticket they can win.
July 11, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
For some reason, Cederico forgot MO-09's top Dem candidate, state rep Judy Baker from Columbia. She was the only one with the guts to file against Hulshoff BEFORE he decided to run for Governor rather than for reelection. Judy Baker is out fundraising and polling Gaw and Jacob, and is a whole lot smarter and better looking. Are you a D.C. Republican mole, Cederico?
July 12, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Very surprised OH-02 isn't on the list.
Jean Schmidt(R-OH2) has barely won two elections (the run-off for Rob Portman's old seat against Paul Hackett received national attention in 2005, and against Vic Wulsin where she won by less than 3,000 votes), is notoriously nationally unpopular, and represents the very symbol of the Latter-Years Bush Rubber Stamp Congress.
Should be a more high profile race. In this part of Ohio, I feel pretty strongly that the OH-02 race is more win-able than the OH-01.
July 11, 2008 2:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please, please please give some support in NC-10. Daniel Johnson (military hero that lost his legs saving a sailor back in 99, son of a minister, fabulous human being) is running against the loathsome Patrick McHenry - youngest, wing-nuttiest Member of Congress. This is THE one and best chance to stop what may otherwise be a long and painful McPhony political career. Very R district but polling encouraging - McDouchebag's negatives are high.
July 11, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Woo-hoo! Great to see NJ-07 on the list. Linda Stender (D) almost won last time despite a lack of DCCC support, while Ferguson carpet-bombed the district with "Stender is a Spender" fliers. She's running again and Ferguson is retiring, so it's ripe for the taking.
July 11, 2008 4:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good to see Musgrave (CO 4) on the list. She is a nasty piece of work and is as wingnutty as one can be. I have some very conservative friends in her district and they can't stand her - they won't vote for a Democrat - they just won't vote (half a loaf is better than none).
July 11, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agreed. Marilyn Musgrave is embarrassingly awful.
I hope Hank Eng has a chance in my district, CO-6, most likely against Coffman since Tancredo is retiring.
July 11, 2008 6:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not a dime in the Chicago market where we have 4 or 5 seats we can take in the collar counties this year? What's up with that?
July 11, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you, Mark.
Very disappointed to not see IL-10 [Dan Seals (D)taking on incumbent Mark Kirk (R)], on the list.
And it seems we are competitive in several other local races (including defending the recent win in Hastert's old district).
This one of the reasons I donate directly to campaigns, through Act Blue, rather than giving money to the DCCC or DSCC establishment -- I'm smarter than they are. ;-)
-- ARG
* I also give to Russ Feingold's Progressive Patriots PAC, and to Al Franken's Midwest Values PAC. They distribute their money to truly progressive candidates.
July 14, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink