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Another Poll Shows Montana Is A Swing State
We now have another poll confirming that Montana, a state that can usually be relied on to vote Republican, has improbably become a battleground state as Barack Obama aggressively pursues the Mountain West.
The new poll from Rasmussen has Obama and McCain tied at 47% each. A month ago, Obama led by a margin of 49%-44%, in a state that has voted Dem only once in the last 40 years.
The internals do show that McCain has a favorability advantage here, a good sign for his chances. His numbers are 59% favorable to only 40% unfavorable, compared to Obama's 53% favorable and 46% unfavorable. But with both candidates posting overall positive numbers, expect this state to see a very hard-fought race this fall.
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Schweitzer for Veep.
July 31, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops = beat me to it.
;)
July 31, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too. I would love Schweitzer. My god, that'd be awesome.
July 31, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I honestly wouldn't be surprised. Obama can carry the west and he needs it.
I'd love to see Chet Edwards get the nod, because I believe Texas could could do it this time - vote for Obama. And I saw someone here the other day who had a Chet Edwards bumper sticker- which surprised the hell out of me.
But Schweitzer is such a great choice - it's hard to ignore that fact.
July 31, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
YEEEEEE-HAW!
http://strategy08.wordpress.com
July 31, 2008 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Midwest will the key for victory.
July 31, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd prefer a Veep that would have a bit more pull in a state with more electoral votes, or who balanced out a few more of Obama's perceived weaknesses.
Bill Richardson would be my top choice.
Good news though about Montana being in play! Maybe pigs will fly and my own home state of Idaho might eventually be contestable.
July 31, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know...Schweitzer is a Western governor, libertarian, verbally sharp, Catholic, an energy expert, and a fluent speaker of Arabic. I really can't find a better combo than that, and he could go a long way to carrying Western-style liberals in CO, NM, AZ, MT, ND, etc.
July 31, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think Richardson will be it - that would be a purely ethnic ticket.
I dunno - I think Richardson is risky for several reasons.
July 31, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty sweet how the headline on the main page went from "Montana to be swing state" to "Obama loses lead in MT" in about half an hour. Nice work guys.
July 31, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why the NEGATIVE headline? Just post that Montana is now officially a battleground state.
Amazing!!!
July 31, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Rasmussen also has him within 10 in TX and KY...that's not horrible news.
July 31, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
wonder if msm will talk about this poll hmmm
July 31, 2008 5:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Schweitzer strong where Kaine is weak?
Does his Middle East experience trump being a hairy commie looking dude in Honduras?
Does he support a woman's right to choose an abortion?
Does he it sharp and sweet at press conferences?
Montana has some populist tradition, and did go for Clinton in '92.
Ever hopeful...for another smokescreen before Mark Warner materializes and starts issues Smackdowns to McCain, Davis and Co.
July 31, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Northern VA - there's a guy up the street with a Warner sign and a McCain sign in his yard. I'd love to see his face if Warner actually were Obama's veep.
July 31, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is a house I pass on the way to work every day with two yard signs next to each other: "McCain" "Obama"
Guess they are schizophrenic! :-)
July 31, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, see, now I'm sorry I entered any discussion of veep possibilities - I really don't care who he picks and I generally do not care enough about who it is to argue about it.
LOL!
July 31, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
damn they did changed headline fast i thought i was on cnn web site for a second............
July 31, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
margin of error? Sample size? All the motion is well within the very large MoE, therefore suggesting a) little has changed, and b) this is a really crappy poll. Anything above 3.5 is less than impressive, and here is what Rasmussen sez about this one:
'This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 29, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.'
Calm down, the numbers don't say anything much -- and it is still a month before Labor Day!
July 31, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Damn!! Every state will be a swing state if this keeps up! Obama better tighten up!
July 31, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did you guys miss the head-line? The state is trending BACK to McStain. That's not a good thing.
July 31, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
C'mon. The poll is good news. We're talking about freaking red Montana.
July 31, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
The poll numbers are within the margin of error, in both cases. These are probably normal polling fluctuations, which don't mean a thing.
The only meaning one can actually take from this poll is that now we have a second poll which confirms that Obama has a shot at MT. The initial poll showing an Obama lead, was not an outlier.
July 31, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stay on target.
July 31, 2008 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama needs to go negative with both barrels, now. The way to win an election has been, is, and always will be, to make the other guy look worse than you. Go negative early and often, in as many venues as you can get, deny that you are going negative, and accuse the other guy of going negative. It works EVERY TIME.
July 31, 2008 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Schweitzer? No thanks!
His infamous 2006 interview with the New York Times magazine was a career-killer for him in national Democratic politics:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/08/magazine/08governor.html?pagewanted=all
Mitt Romney??? No way!
July 31, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's running for reelection so..... but that would be awesome! Schweitzer is someone I'd like to know more about and hear more from. Definite energy and foreign policy gravitas.
July 31, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like Eric's original headline as opposed to the home page headline.
Remember when the last poll came out showing Obama up 5, a lot of people were happy but also warned that this could be due to the post-primary bounce and his visit to the area, which immediately preceded the poll.
All you hand wringers need to calm down about this latest poll. It's a tie and it's the second Ras poll in a row showing that this state is a legitimate toss-up.
Toss-up. Montana. How many of you even had this one on the map a few months ago? Bob freaking Dole won this state. No reason to get upset about this one settling back to a tie. In fact, I think the fact that two straight polls show MT as 100% in play is fantastic news.
Perspective, folks. (and this is coming from a guy who tears his hair out daily re: the crazy and inexplicable fluctuations in the daily tracking polls)
July 31, 2008 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
In other words the entire swing between the two polls is withing the margin of error. 49-44 and 47-47 are statistically indistinguishable and yet Eric Kleefield can distinguish a pattern.
The reporting based on polling on this site is abhorrent and should be an embarrassment to the editors whose campaign against crappy journalism is otherwise admirable.
Eric at least read "Sampling for the Utterly Ignorant", "Margin of Error for English Majors", or "Why Political Reporting is Different from Finding Shapes in Clouds for Morons". You will learn something.
July 31, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with ogliberal on this one. The second TPM headline on this story is a bit harsh. That Obama is even tied in Montana is reason enough to marvel. I mean the reported five-point lead was great, but a one-point win in November would be enough for me.
As for Schweitzer possibly for V-P, I have no idea if he's being vetted, but he could bring other Western states with him, besides possibly his own Montana.
July 31, 2008 11:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Handling of poll results is one of TPM's most frustrating ongoing lapses.
This post that we're commenting on, and its headline, are both acceptable.
(Although sample size and MOE should always be stated in even the briefest citation.)
But the Home Page headline is simply wrong.
It assumes a level of accuracy the pollsters themselves do not claim.
These two polls offer no evidence of a trend.
In fact, the result is fully consistent with Obama's Montana support actually having increased over the past month.
August 1, 2008 2:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's not going to win Montana. He has gone down in the polls there. If Obama wins Montana then he'll win the electin in a landslide, which isn't going to happen.
August 1, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
The discussions about Montana's surprising purple status always miss that this trend suddenly happened when Montana became one of seven states to allow registration on election day, the others being Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Idaho, New Hampshire, and Wyoming. Notice all those states have been are are trending Democratic. The timing could be a coincidence, but I suspect otherwise. When I was a poll watcher one election here in Minnesota, many people registered at the polls, and the majority had moved to their current address after the pre-registration deadline. In most states, they can't vote. I suspect Democratic leaning demographic groups move more often than Republicans. Certainly, I suspect this more than anything else explains the suddenly competitiveness of Democrats in Montana in the last couple elections.
This isn't about one state. Perhaps the biggest reform we could make to our elections is allowing registration at the polls. It increases turnout, and would end the incentive to wrongly purge voters from registration rolls, which is the main place election fraud will be happening this year.
August 1, 2008 6:09 PM | Reply | Permalink