While many will try to explain this away as statistical noise, and they may be right, I think there is cause for concern.

The major story out of the last month has been "Obama's opportunistic moves," so for low-information voters, that's what they know.

As they say, these are the dog days of summer and no one can win the election during these months, but you CAN lose it. McCain has done nothing to win it and for those paying attention has been a mess, but nothing has stuck. Obama's been tagged with the "opportunistic" label and it has made a major dent in his appeal.

No one has won or lost anything, but Obama's taken more hits. There's a very simple thing for him to do, which is go on the offense more often and not appear so defensive. He's on the right side of the issues.

Finally, here's hoping his upcoming trip is the big deal people expect it to be, and generates the right kind of coverage.

I agree with Amelie, but even so it astounds me, absolutely baffles me, why Americans would even consider another round of Republican rule at this point.

I don't believe these polls anymore.

They don't include cell phone only households -- I don't know what that number would be, but if they did include cell phone only HHs in their mix, I bet Obama's lead would be much greater.

Anyone know how many HHs are cell phone only? My household is.

Large pop vote leads are nice, but between a flat-out tie in the pop vote and a 3-4 lead for Obama, he may not actually gain any electoral votes. Even at a one-point deficit, I think he likely gets 273-293 electoral votes, and that may be all he gets even if he wins by 3-4 points.

Considering that, these polls, which really are all moving within the MOE, are not too worrisome.

Here is a link from Crooks and Liars. They too think media is the reason for these numbers, and the media is not going to get any better come fall, from my perspective.

Link:

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/07/14/downplaying-the-differences-between-obama-mccain/#more-30958

Wait until both tickets are set, both conventions are over, and the debates have started before you start buying into poll results. If Obama is to win, it will be in a close election. Republicans have dominated Presidential elections since Nixon implemented the Southern Strategy.

We must be realistic and not buy into our own fairy tales.

Seven out of the last ten presidential elections were won by Republicans. The Democrats won three. One was the Carter victory against Gerald Ford, who had never been elected to anything bigger than a congressional seat. That did not last long, and Reagan won by huge margins. Of course the only other two Democratic victories were when Ross Perot had sunk his teeth in Bush's ankle and refused to let go. We are back to one on one again, so we are the underdogs.

while i tend to agree with a lot of the posters here arguing that obama needs to get out on offense more, quit letting mccain set the terms of debate, fight back more forcefully, etc., i want to remind everyone that all of those things were said about obama's campaign for all of 2007 until about a month before iowa. he soaked all of the criticism in, waited, waited, not yet, and when the time was right, he pounced. and the rest was history. it's true that the time period since the primaries ended haven't been the best for the democratic nominee, but let's remember that these guys know what they're doing. have patience, and have faith.

The Newsweek poll didn't really concern me because of huge shift in party ID between this one and the June poll - which also looked wacky. The Rasmussen shift over the last few days has concerned me because he weights for party ID and has had the Dems ahead by 9-10pts in that category. (I believe he currently has it at 41-31) In addition, while other polls - including Gallup's daily tracking - have shown some wacky shifts, Rasmussen's has had Obama ahead by a pretty steady average of 4-6 pts. That is, again, until the last few days. Obama dropped below 48 w/leaners for the first time since early June and McCain moved above 45 w/leaners for the first time since the Dem primary ended.

What I can't explain is, "why?" What happened in the week following the July 4th holiday that apparently has damaged Obama? McCain calls SS a disgrace and his top economic adviser calls Americans concerned about the economy a bunch of "whiners", and it works in his favor.

Of course, the American people would have had to have heard about those things in order to have an opinion about them. I can't believe how quickly Gramm's comments fell from the headlines...and I don't even think they picked up McCain's SS comments. And when his "kill Iranians with cigarettes" comment surfaced, the media treated that as just, "McCain being McCain", and sick jokes like that are - according the media - why people like him.

Can you guys please learn to read polls?

Rasmussen shows a genuine tightening, but the "big shift" in Newsweek's poll had to do with their not weighting for party ID.

What about Intrade Markets posted right here at TPMEC ? Don't they mean anything at all ? After all, these people put their money where their mouth is.

We need to keep in mind what a different kind of election this one is. If Obama's going to win big, it'll become apparent only right before the end. Why? First, McCain has had a reputation for independence for a decade, and it's going to take some time and work to chip away at that. I'd argue this is happening beautifully. People see him as close to Bush and he's proven so inept on the trail, that folks will slowly realize he's not who they thought he was. And second, and probably most important, Obama is new on the scene and black. People like him (his approval ratings are great), but they're not convinced yet he's either ready or they're able to get over any issues with a black president. If he's going to win, it's all going to come together further down the road. Elections aren't won in July, but the groundwork for a victory can be seen as it takes shape. At the moment, I feel good about Obama's prospects.

Looks like that FISA thing worked like a charm, eh, Barack? I think he made his first major error myself with that one. He could have stood on principle, and stated that the Constitution forced him to vote NO. It was going to pass anyway. This way, he pissed off his supporters, looked vague and weak, and didn't get any new support.

As far as MO goes, I work there, and live in IL. Here's my analysis:

1) The current crop of Repukeliscum in MO have really done a horrible job, and the Repukeliscum brand is way down.

2) The governor will almost certainly be a Democrat, who is very popular, and has a great track record.

3) In 2004, the SoS was a Repukeliscum. Now, the SoS is a Democrat.

4) Claire McCaskill won pretty clearly state-wide in 2006. She is backing Barack.

5) The Repukeliscum tried but did not pass a Voter ID law.

6) The blue collar Republican voters are REALLY PISSED at a plan that the current Gov passed which destroyed the Medicaid health care for the poor. It's a total disaster, and has not been replaced.

I feel that Barack has an excellent chance in MO.

These head-to-head polls are not what wins the prize as former VP Gore unfortunately found out. It's the electoral vote count that matters. And Obama is doing quite well! See www.electoral-vot.com, for example.

Clearly, for Obama to win, he must move further to the mushy middle to avoid offending anyone. A major speech castigating progressives and liberals for their un-American beliefs should help; or perhaps a promise to bomb Iran. At minimum, he must replicate Gore's and Kerry's approaches to a tee. Triangulate, Barack, triangulate! And for chrissakes, pander, don't lead!

Here we go; presumed liberals and Democrats going into panic mode in JULY for an early November election based on a national poll.

I witnessed the exact same thing last year in the primary polls between Hillary and Obama. Yet again, I am forced to weed through the hysterical posts from the Chicken Little (the sky is falling, the sky is falling) contingent and those pretending to be part of that contingent.

Hillary found out that Obama really did understand the primary--whether that primary was an election or a caucus in the state--and planned his campaign accordingly. There's no reason to suppose that Obama has suddenly decided to run his general election campaign as if the popular vote matters more than electoral college votes.

Don't panic.

Amuse yourselves with this, from here. Wordcloud of tags from the McCain website's blog. Notice anything funny? Like, um, the relative prominence of the terms "Obama" and "McCain"?

You'd think they would talk about their candidate occasionally, wouldn't you? Polls schmolls.