The McCain campaign has this brutal new attack ad against Barack Obama, making the blatantly false charge that he doesn't care about the troops unless there are cameras around:

"And now, he made time to go to the gym, but cancelled a visit with wounded troops," the announcer says. "Seems the Pentagon wouldn't allow him to bring cameras."

"John McCain is always there for our troops."

As we reported yesterday, the Pentagon told Obama that the issue here was not that he couldn't bring cameras, but that he only had campaign staff with him and not Senate staffers. And since the Pentagon didn't tell him this until he had already embarked on his trip, it was too late for him to do anything.

In London, Obama Defends Overseas Tour
Barack Obama is spending the day in London, where he took some tough questions from reporters about the validity of his overseas trip. "This was important for me not only to try to highlight or amplify how the international situation affects our economy back home," Obama said, "but also hopefully to give people at home, but also leaders abroad, some sense of where an Obama administration might take our foreign policy."

McCain: Obama's Tour Is Leaving Us All Out
John McCain is now attacking Barack Obama for traveling the world during the campaign, with the angle that Obama is ignoring the American people -- and John McCain. From McCain's weekly radio address: With all the breathless coverage from abroad, and with Senator Obama now addressing his speeches to 'the people of the world,' I'm starting to feel a little left out. Maybe you are, too."

Obama: McCain Has Travelled Abroad During Campaign, Too
Also during this his press conference in London, Barack Obama rebutted John McCain's charges that his overseas tour was some how inappropriate: "John McCain has visited every one of these countries post-primary that I have. He has given speeches in Canada, in Colombia, Mexico, he made visits. And so it doesn't strike me that we have done anything different than the McCain campaign has done which is to recognize that part of the job of the next president, commander in chief is to forge effective relationships with our allies."

Obama Caught On Tape Discussing Vacation Plans For August
Barack Obama apparently plans to take a week's vacation in August, having been caught on tape discussing it with UK Conservative Party leader David Cameron. "Do you have a break at all?" Cameron asked. Obama replied: "I have not. I am going to take a week in August."

Jack Reed Takes Self Out Of VP Consideration
Sen. Jack Reed, the Rhode Island Democrat and Democratic point man on foreign policy who is accompanying Barack Obama on his overseas trip, has taken himself out of consideration for the vice presidency. Reed told the Providence Journal that he would refuse the running-mate position if he were asked, "but I frankly I don't expect to be offered the position."

Wisconsin Dems Oust Pro-McCain Delegate
The Democratic Party of Wisconsin's administrative committee voted unanimously yesterday to disqualify Debra Bartoshevich, a pledged delegate for Hillary Clinton who has said she'll now be voting for John McCain. "I won't drink the Kool-Aid," Bartoshevich told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

GOP Rep. McHenry Digs Into His Own Pockets For Campaign
In a sign that he could be facing a tough race for what is usually a safe Republican seat, Congressman Patrick McHenry (R-NC) has loaned his campaign $175,000 for his race against Democratic nominee Daniel Johnson, a disabled Navy veteran. If not for the loan, McHenry would have been roughly tied with Johnson for cash on hand. (Via BlueNC.)

Okay, John McCain just wrapped up his interview with CNN, and there were a couple of real live ones in there that should juice up your happy hour a bit.

First, McCain dealt with Nouri al-Maliki's inconvenient endorsement of Obama's pullout timetable by saying, in effect, that Maliki didn't mean it...

BLITZER: What -- but if Maliki persists, you're president and he says he wants U.S. troops out and he wants them out, let's say, in a year or two years or 16 months, or whatever, what do you do? Do you just -- do you listen to the prime minister?

MCCAIN: He won't. He won't. He won't.

McCain said Maliki knows withdrawal "has to be conditioned-based." Again, Maliki said that Obama's plan was "the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."

McCain also tried to argue that he wasn't questioning Obama's patriotism when he said that Obama would rather lose a war than lose a campaign.

MCCAIN: I am accusing -- I am stating the facts. And the facts are that I don't question Senator Obama's patriotism. I'm sure that he's a very patriotic American. I question his judgment because he lacks experience and knowledge. And I question his judgment.

On this one, we'll agree with McCain. He wasn't accusing Obama of being unpatriotic. He was accusing him of treason.

Video soon.

Late Update: Here's McCain saying Maliki didn't really mean it about the timetable:

And here's McCain claiming that accusing someone of treason isn't questioning their patriotism:

Woah, this seems significant. In an interview to be broadcast later this afternoon on CNN, John McCain seemed to favor a Nuremberg-type international trial for Bin Laden -- even though McCain previously criticized Obama for saying we needed to take care in determining how Bin Laden should handled legally should he be captured..

In the interview, McCain told Wolf Blitzer the following:

"We have various options. The Nuremberg Trials are certainly an example of the kind of tribunal that we could move forward with. I don't think we'd have any difficulty in devising an international -- internationally supported mechanism that would mete out justice. There's no problem there."

But McCain sharply criticized Barack Obama last month when Obama said we needed to avoid making Bin Laden "into a martyr" and "to assure that the United States government is abiding by basic conventions."

Obama's comment wasn't perfectly clear, but it's obvious that he was saying that if Bin Laden were captured, and not killed -- which seems extremely unlikely to begin with -- Obama would favor some sort of above-board legal method for dealing with him that wouldn't inflame tensions in the Muslim world.

Late Update Here's the video:

John McCain has unveiled a new slogan against Barack Obama: That Obama's attitudes on Iraq represent "the audacity of hopelessness"!

In his speech today at the American GI Forum convention in Colorado, McCain excoriated Obama for opposing the surge, saying that the surge policies "amounted to a real-time test for a future commander-in-chief."

"Fortunately, Senator Obama failed, not our military," McCain later added. "We rejected the audacity of hopelessness, and we were right."

Full prepared speech after the jump.

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What do you do if you're a GOP candidate locked in a brutal race for re-election and you need to hoodwink voters into embracing your tax policies?

Easy: Create a fictitious "hero of the taxpayer" award supposedly bestowed on you by a respected non-partisan watchdog group.

TPMmuckraker's Kate Klonick has a great find: Our pal GOP Rep. Don Young, who's fighting for his life in Alaska, is running a new ad saying that he received such an award from a group called Taxpayers for Common Sense.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it just so happens that this is, well, entirely false, as the group tells Klonick. But the real beauty of the tale lies in its kicker.

Take a look.

Here it is: We've created a comprehensive time-line of John McCain's statements on Iraq, from the inception of the conflict to the present.

You can view it right here.

Our time-line casts some doubt on a key McCain campaign claim: That he's been a broad critic of Bush's war policies for many years now.

It also finds multiple inconsistencies in his public statements on the war.

The claim that McCain has been a critic of Bush's war policies in general is central to his candidacy. In July, he said: "I think you know that I opposed the failed strategy of the Bush administration."

Our timeline does support some of McCain's argument. It's true that as early as August of 2003, after he'd visited Iraq, he started saying that there weren't enough American troops in Iraq. At the time, this was consensus opinion among Democratic members of Congress and foreign policy hands. When McCain claims credit for having called for more troops early on, he's right.

Nonetheless, from the very beginning, all the way up to the present, McCain has repeatedly voiced strong support for Bush's approach in general, in ways that are at odds with his later claims of prescience.

For instance, In December of 2007, he deplored the fact that America had gone to war without "a realistic and comprehensive plan for success." But in June of 2003, he said that the "major conflict is over" and suggested that the mission had been accomplished. That same year he predicted that we'd be "greeted as liberators."

There are other inconsistencies. In October of 2006, he himself said that we needed 20,000 more troops. And when Bush subsequently announced that he would send 21,500 -- more than McCain's suggestion -- the Arizona Senator firmly supported it.

But then, in what may have been an effort to lay the groundwork for evading blame if Bush's surge failed, McCain changed his position, saying that he'd actually prefer that Bush send still more troops.

McCain has also been somewhat inconsistent on whether he supported Bush's policies and has exaggerated his opposition to them in a general sense. In April of 2008, for instance, he said that the war had been "mishandled terribly" by the administration and said he'd "fought against" Bush's overall approach.

In fact, while he did criticize the administration for not sending more troops, the timeline shows that he was repeatedly supportive of Bush's general approach over the years. Indeed, in April of 2008, he said: "No one has supported President Bush on Iraq more than I have."

You can view our timeline -- which was compiled with the help of indefatigable TPM intern Matt Berman -- here.

The check marks denote McCain statements in favor of Bush's policies. The X marks denote opposition. And the Pinocchio noses are not meant to denote outright lies, but exaggeration and fudging of the whole truth.

If we've missed any important ones, let us know and we'll add them. Enjoy.

White House Irony Watch...

The Bush Administration's statement today on its new sanctions against Zimbabwe call into question just how much of a sense of self-awareness they have. Quoting President Bush:

"No regime should ignore the will of its own people and calls from the international community without consequences."

We might point them in the direction of polling data at home -- not to mention international opinion -- showing that people want a timetable to withdraw from Iraq.

Yet more evidence of just how abysmal the GOP brand is these days?

Nine of 12 targeted Republicans running in the most competitive Senate races this fall are either skipping the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., or have not decided whether to attend.

Among those who will not attend are Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, who is not close to presumptive presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is a McCain loyalist. Stevens and Collins will use the convention week to focus on their campaigns.

Also sending regrets is former Rep. Bob Schaffer of Colorado, running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Sen. Wayne Allard.

Six others -- Sens. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, John Sununu of New Hampshire, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Gordon Smith of Oregon and challengers John Kennedy of Louisiana and Rep. Steve Pearce of New Mexico are still on the fence. Their spokesman offered responses ranging from "there are no plans yet" to "no decisions have been made."

By contrast, most of the Dems in those races will be going to the Dem convention. Pretty telling stuff.

I've just gotten clarification from the Pentagon on what really happened with regard to Barack Obama's canceled visit to an Army base in Germany, something the McCain campaign has been using to hit Obama since yesterday.

A Pentagon spokesperson confirms to me that because of longstanding Department of Defense regulations, Pentagon officials told Obama aides that he couldn't visit the base with campaign staff. This left Obama with little choice but to cancel the trip, since the plan to visit with campaign aides had been in the works for weeks.

The Obama campaign yesterday announced that it had decided to cancel the visit to Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, saying that it would be "inappropriate" to make such a visit as part of a campaign trip.

The McCain camp has nonetheless been using Obama's canceled trip to insinuate that he's anti-troops. "Barack Obama is wrong," McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers said in a statement yesterday. "It is never 'inappropriate' to visit our men and women in the military."

But it turns out that the Pentagon did in fact tell Obama that in this case, it was not only "inappropriate," but against DOD rules, for him to conduct the visit with campaign staff.

"We have longstanding Department of Defense policy in regards to political campaigns and elections," Pentagon spokesperson Elizabeth Hibner told me. "We informed the Obama staff that he was more than welcome to visit as Senator Obama, with Senate staff. However, he could not conduct the visit with campaign staff."

After being told this, the Obama campaign announced yesterday that it had decided it was "inappropriate" to make the visit as part of a campaign trip.

It's unclear how Obama could have made the visit at all, given the Pentagon's directives. No Senate staff was on the trip, and the Obama camp says they received the Pentagon's directives on Wednesday, after they were already abroad.

Bottom line: We're not seeing any issue here at all.

Late Update: In fairness, the Obama campaign's first statement should have been clearer about what happened, but the larger point is that the McCain campaign criticism appears unfounded.

In yet another piece of evidence that the GOP really needs to get its online act together, the RNC's Web site still has their counter of how long it's supposedly been since Barack Obama went to Iraq, going all the way back to January 2006:

Um, the correct answer is more like four days.

Check out this new ad from Al Franken, responding to an attack ad from Republican Sen. Norm Coleman that hit him for telling "tasteless, sexist jokes" and writing "juicy porn" as a comedian:

"Look, I'm not proud of every joke I've ever told. But I know there's a difference between what you say as a comedian and what you do as a U.S. Senator," Franken says. "Norm Coleman has supported George Bush's war in Iraq, and he's taken millions from Big Oil and special interests. Unfortunately, that's no joke."

Franken has trailed in most polls, though a recent Rasmussen survey gave him a narrow lead. This race will probably be close in the end, though, as Barack Obama is likely to carry Minnesota by a healthy margin.

Obama In France Today
Barack Obama is headed to Paris today for the next leg of his overseas tour, which has focused on the idea that he can repair America's relationship with allies and forge an international consensus. Obama will be meeting with the country's conservative (and colorful) leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy.

McCain To Speak To GI Convention And The Dalai Lama
John McCain has an interesting day ahead of him, with a speech in the swing state of Colorado before the annual American GI Forum convention. He will then meet with the Dalai Lama, giving him a chance to both talk about the honor of military service and a yearning for peace in one day.

Merkel's Office Praises Obama's Speech
Barack Obama's speech yesterday in Berlin is being praised by the office of Germany's conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel. Spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm said the speech "underlined the fact that the challenges of the 21st century can only be tackled together, only in international cooperation -- that corresponds with the German government's position."

WaPo: McCain Could Announce VP Pick Soon
The Washington Post reports that John McCain could make his running-mate selection very soon -- between Obama's return home on Sunday and before the Olympics begin on August 8. Anything outside that window, and he risks being overshadowed by other media events.

Dem Chances In House Get Even Better
CQ has changed their ratings on 14 House races, with only two rating changes in the GOP's direction and the other 12 in favor of the Democrats. Furthermore, the two ratings changes for the Republicans are in seats they already hold, with the magazine declaring them to be safer than before -- so the GOP hasn't really made any true headway.

Report: Clinton Donors Helping Obama, But Not Vice-Versa
The Los Angeles Times reports that big donors for Hillary Clinton have donated a total of over $2.5 million up through June to the Obama campaign and to the campaign's joint victory fund with the DNC. On the other hand, Obama donors have only given about $105,000 to help retire Hillary's campaign debts during that period.

McCain Camp Creates Its Own Social Network Site
The McCain campaign is playing catch-up with the Obama team, launching their own social networking site to help supporters find each other and organize events: McCain Nation. The Obama campaign used this idea from practically the very start of their campaign, allowing their grassroots organizers to better contact each other.

The McCain campaign couldn't help but get in a joke about Barack Obama's overseas trip, with the candidate delivering a joke that encompassed two separate narratives: That Obama is being ridiculous by traveling all over the world, and the press loves him.

"My opponent, of course, is traveling in Europe, and tomorrow his tour takes him to France," McCain said according to the prepared remarks for tonight's LIVESTRONG town hall meeting with Lance Armstrong in Ohio, set up by Armstrong to talk about health care and cancer issues. "In a scene Lance would recognize, a throng of adoring fans awaits Senator Obama in Paris -- and that's just the American press."

Every now and then we like to check in on the latest antics surrounding GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt -- the Ohio Republican who called Jack Murtha a coward on the House floor. And boy oh boy, her latest doesn't disappoint.

Schmidt is now enmeshed in a bitter feud with another Ohio Republican, who's so furious with her that he called her a "lying b----" and a "despicable person" who would "sell her mother" -- and expressly told us we could print that!

The issue? GOP State Rep. Tom Brinkman, who founded an anti-tax government watchdog group, is charging that Schmidt's House staffers frequently work on her campaign for re-election.

"You can quote me anywhere you like. Jean Schmidt is a lying b----," said Brinkman, who lost his primary challenge to her this year by a 58%-40% margin, in an interview with Election Central. "She would sell her mother to promote herself. She is a despicable person. She will go any length possible to win, to get what she wants."

Yikes!

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The latest poll out of Pennsylvania has some good news for Barack Obama: He's now over 50% in this big swing state.

The new numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±3% margin of error.

A key number is that 46% of respondents say economic issues are their biggest concern, and they favor Obama 60%-29%. This is compared to only 25% who rate national security as the top issue, a group that gives McCain a 58%-33% lead.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the McCain camp took a whack at Obama's Berlin speech by suggesting it's presumptuous for him to be speaking abroad in presidential tones while still a candidate.

From McCain spokesperson Tucker Bounds:

"While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap today in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a 'citizen of the world,' John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving, improving and protecting America. Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about it."

Complete with a swipe at Obama's internationalism and an obligatory (if slightly more subtle than usual) allusion to McCain's war service.

Hmmm. It looks like Fox News is asking some rather loaded questions in its latest poll:

Have you heard any of your friends and neighbors say there is something about Barack Obama that scares them?
Yes 49%
No 50%

Have you heard any of your friends and neighbors say there is something about John McCain that scares them?
Yes 36%
No 62%

Some people believe Barack Obama, despite his professed Christianity, is secretly a Muslim. Others say that is just a rumor and Obama really is a Christian as he says, and point out he's attended a Christian church for years. What do you believe -- is Obama a Muslim or a Christian?
Muslim 10%
Christian 57%

John McCain was held captive for five years in a North Vietnamese prisoner of war camp. Do you think that experience would make McCain a better president or a worse president?
Better 49%
Worse 11%
No Difference (voluntary) 33%

Do you think Barack Obama's trip to Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East is better described as a fact-finding trip or as a campaign event?
Fact-finding 19%
Campaign event 47%
Both (voluntary) 25%

Barack Obama's Berlin speech has just concluded, and to whatever degree it was intended for a domestic audience, as well as an international one, it seemed designed to achieve a number of key goals.

First, he strongly conveyed the idea that liberal internationalism is not only compatible with an aggressive war on terror, it's an enormous boon to it. Indeed, the discussion of terror was more extensive than you might have expected.

This is the moment when we must defeat terror and dry up the well of extremism that supports it. This threat is real and we cannot shrink from our responsibility to combat it. If we could create NATO to face down the Soviet Union, we can join in a new and global partnership to dismantle the networks that have struck in Madrid and Amman; in London and Bali; in Washington and New York. If we could win a battle of ideas against the communists, we can stand with the vast majority of Muslims who reject the extremism that leads to hate instead of hope.

This is the moment when we must renew our resolve to rout the terrorists who threaten our security in Afghanistan, and the traffickers who sell drugs on your streets. No one welcomes war. I recognize the enormous difficulties in Afghanistan. But my country and yours have a stake in seeing that NATO's first mission beyond Europe's borders is a success. For the people of Afghanistan, and for our shared security, the work must be done. America cannot do this alone.

That last line carries a hint of a plea, and it's as clear a signal as you could want that Obama represents a complete break with the Bush administration's swaggering unilateralism.

Obama also tried to persuade us that we're on the cusp of a global moment as historic and momentous as the end of World War II and the fall of the Berlin Wall -- shoring up Obama's message that only the candidate who truly grasps the nature of our changing world is the one with real commander-in-chief readiness.

Read more »

It's after the jump. Dig in. Video and more soon.

Late Update: Here's the vid...

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Obama's Berlin speech is set to begin within moments.

You can see pictures of the crowd gathering at the Victory Tower here and here.

Video of the scene is here.

Fox reports that the crowd may be in the hundreds of thousands. One question: Will the crowd stretch all the way back to the Brandenburg Gate, the venue that Obama had first eyed?

Meanwhile, (via the Page), Obama got ready for the speech with a trip to the gym.

And you can watch the speech live right here.

Full text and more soon.

Late Update: Speech is underway.

Late Late Update: Full text is here.

Not sure what to make of this. While Obama gives his historic speech in Berlin today, John McCain will be lunching in a German restaurant in Ohio.

Farah Hice, a hostess at Schmidt's Restaurant and Sausage Haus in Columbus, just confirmed to me by phone that McCain just walked into the restaurant and is staying for lunch.

Perhaps the goal is to mock Obama's speech, just as the RNC is trying to do by running ads in three places in the United States called "Berlin." But doesn't it risk making McCain look a bit small in comparison?

Late Update: In fairness, I should add that I really don't know if the goal here is to mock Obama's speech, so perhaps it's premature to suggest that he may look small in comparison. McCain is mingling with small-business owners today.

Uh, oh. Conventional wisdom holds that McCain's campaign is tanking and has been an all-around disorganized mess, but a new round of polling from Quinnipiac suggests John McCain could be making major headway in key swing states. He's also taken the lead in Colorado, where Barack Obama is making a major play for support.

Here are the latest numbers, compared to Quinnipiac's previous poll from a month ago:

Colorado
McCain (R) 46% (+2)
Obama (D) 44% (-5)

Michigan
Obama (D) 46% (-2)
McCain (R) 42% (+0)

Minnesota
Obama (D) 46% (-8)
McCain (R) 44% (+7)

Wisconsin
Obama (D) 50% (-1)
McCain (R) 39% (+0)

From the pollster's analysis: "Sen. Barack Obama's post-primary bubble hasn't burst, but it is leaking a bit. It's been a good month for Sen. John McCain."

The Obama team is well aware of the complexities of managing domestic perceptions of his foreign trip and Berlin speech today. On the one hand, the risk is that it'll be seen at home as presumptuous for him to be speaking in presidential tones to foreign lands while he's still a candidate.

But the Obama campaign is also trying to accomplish a dual goal: First, and most obviously, Obama advisers hope the optics from abroad will get voters at home to feel more comfortable with him in a commander-in-chief role. And second, they hope to signal strongly that an Obama presidency would take America's relations with the rest of the world in a new and positive direction.

The European press certainly seems to believe this, if these front pages out of Germany, France, and Austria are any indication....

Barack Obama's speech today in Berlin will be a major international story, a global event, and Jake Tapper has a good post quoting Obama on his campaign plane talking at length to reporters about what's coming:

"We really have no idea what's going to happen. Sort of a crap shoot. I'm happy with the speech though."...

Obama said tonight's address will not be "a wonkish policy speech...We started working on it about two weeks ago, about two weeks ago." The speech "was in pretty good shape a couple days ago and now we're just kind of tooling around with it."...

Did he look to the Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy speeches about Berlin for guidance when writing his own? he was asked.

"You know, they were presidents," Obama said, " I am a citizen. But obviously Berlin is representative of the extraodinary success of the post World War II effort to bring the continent together and the West together and then later to bring the East and the West together so, so I think it's a natural place to talk about it."...

"Hopefully it will be viewed as a substantive articulation of the relationship I'd like to see between the US and Europe."...

He added that "there's no doubt that part of what I want to communicate on both sides of the Atlantic is the enormous potential of us for restoring a strong sense of coming together."

Obama said he was not surprised by the international reaction to his world tour.

"What I think I anticipated was that the world is keely interested in this election," he said. "And I think they are hungry for a sense of where America is going so certainly there is a curiosity there as well."

Great stuff. The speech is today at 1 P.M. eastern, and we'll be bringing you full coverage.

Obama's Big Berlin Speech Today
Today is the big day of Barack Obama's tour through Europe, with him set to address a crowd in Berlin that is expected to be simply massive. Speaking to reporters on the campaign plane, Obama tried to play down the big expectations that have been set: "I doubt we're going to have a million screaming Germans -- let's tamp down expectations here."

McCain To Discuss Cancer With Lance Armstrong
John McCain is stopping tonight in Columbus, Ohio, where he'll be holding a town hall meeting on cancer issues with Lance Armstrong. The famous athlete has remained publicly neutral in the campaign all this cycle, with the goal of lobbying all the candidates on health care issues relating to cancer research and treatment.

Schumer: Sixty Seats "Not Out Of The Question"
During a pen and pad briefing with reporters yesterday in his capacity as head of the DSCC, Senator Chuck Schumer didn't rule out the possibility of the Dems reaching a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority this fall. "It's very difficult, but it's not out of the question," Schumer said.

WaPo: Obama's Israel Trip Focused On Jewish Vote
The Washington Post reports that the Israel leg of Barack Obama's trip was the most meticulously planned part of the overseas tour -- with the big issue being an effort to woo Jewish voters back home. "In the end, I think he's going to do as well as any Democratic nominee with the Jewish community, but people still have to feel more comfortable with him," said Congressman Henry Waxman.

NYT: McCain Putting In Extra Effort For Home State
The New York Times reports that John McCain has stepped up his number of campaign appearances in his home state of Arizona, a sign that the campaign isn't taking the place for granted as Democrats have gained strength locally. One problem is the enthusiasm gap between the two candidates, and that many local conservative activists have long dislike McCain for his stances on campaign finance and immigration.

Report: Lieberman Not Bringing In Cash For McCain
The Hill reports that in the time since John McCain won the Republican nomination, only two donations have come into the McCain campaign from Joe Lieberman supporters. In his defense, Lieberman noted that he's attended several fundraising events for McCain: "I hope my presence there has helped."

Check out this new ad from Vote Vets, set to air on national cable. It does what many anti-war voices have been hesitant to do: Declare that by refusing to formulate a plan for withdrawal from Iraq, John McCain's dedication to the basic idea of freedom has been called into question.

"But Senator McCain would occupy Iraq indefinitely, against their wishes," declares Brandon Woods, an Iraq War veteran. "That's not what freedom means. That's not what we fought for. Senator, I thought you would know better."

The new NBC/Wall St. Journal poll has good news for Barack Obama, giving him a 47%-41% lead over John McCain. But there's a catch: A solid 55% of registered voters view him as the "riskier" choice for president, compared to only 35% who say McCain is the bigger risk.

Huge majorities say Obama is more likable, more compassionate and able to understand average people, offers hope and optimism for the future, and would improve America's standing in the world. But at the same time, McCain has his own lop-sided majorities on being a good commander-in-chief, and on being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency.

McCain has his own problems, mainly coming from a lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy. Only 14% of the people voting for him will say they're "excited" about him, with 42% "satisfied" and a whopping 43% listing him as the "lesser of two evils." Obama's numbers are much better at 44% excited, 33% satisfied, and only 22% saying he's the lesser of two evils.

"This remains Barack Obama's election to win," said the pollster. "In the end, the election is about reassuring voters and removing doubts."

Wow:

WASHINGTON (AdAge.com) -- It's official. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign will be among the TV sponsors of NBC Universal's Olympics coverage. In the first significant network-TV buy of any presidential candidate in at least 16 years, the Obama campaign has taken a $5 million package of Olympics spots that includes network TV as well as cable ads.

AdAge editor Ken Wheaton tells Ben Smith that this makes Obama the first candidate to use national broadcast advertising since Bob Dole in 1996.

The DSCC is sinking some big TV ad money into the hard-fought Oregon Senate race, because national Dems think they need to hurry up and drag down GOP incumbent Gordon Smith's numbers before his own aggressive ad campaign succeeds in fortifying them.

So they've just released this fun new attack ad. Check it out:

"In Oregon, Gordon Smith will say anything to get elected," the announcer says -- a clear reference to Smith's pattern of running to the left during an election year, exemplified by his recent ad aligning himself with Barack Obama.

Okay, this afternoon John McCain pushed back on criticism of his Anbar-surge timeline flub by arguing, in effect, that the overall strategy change that made the Anbar Awakening possible began before the actual surge in troops:

The Arizona senator has told reporters during a stop at a super market in Bethlehem, Pa., that what the Bush administration calls "the surge" was actually "made up of a number of components." McCain says some components of the surge began before Bush ordered more U.S. troops into Iraq.

McCain says U.S. Col. Sean MacFarland started carrying out elements of a new counterinsurgency strategy as early as December 2006.

Hmmm. McCain is crediting the success of the surge to strategic components that didn't involve the actual increase in troops? Sounds a bit like he's undermining the troops, doesn't it?

Seriously, what McCain actually said is that one of the key figures in the Awakening "was contacted by one of the major Sunni sheiks. Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening."

But MacFarland himself, who is cited by McCain above, first started describing the stirring of the awakening in September 2006, months before the surge strategy was announced in January.

Maybe McCain is arguing that we can use the "surge" label on any aspect of the war we want? The surge: It can be whatever you want it to be...

Ooooooooooo-kaaaaaaaay....

Now we have a McCain surrogate explaining away McCain's flubbing of the Anbar Awakening and surge timing by saying that asking for the truth about Iraq undermines the troops...

We listened to that several times, and we're pretty sure that this McCain surrogate, Nancy Pfotenhauer, actually said...

"Barack Obama and his supporters can try to litigate what came first or what was crucial, but that's really an attempt to undermine the significance and the impact of the American troops and their sacrifice and their effort."

A Deluxe TPM Lava Lamp to anyone who can name a single thing about Obama's entire existence that doesn't undermine the troops at this point...

Yet another GOP oil-drilling myth?

You already know about the China-Cuba nonsense. And a couple days ago we brought you Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) amazing claim that increased drilling would lower gas prices all the way down to two bucks a gallon. Now Bachmann has also come up with a great new tall tale:

Visiting ANWR also revealed that almost no wildlife exists in the 2,000-acre area. It was flat arctic tundra with absolutely no trees in view. And, caribou and wildlife were nowhere near the possible drilling sites.

That's right: Bachmann would have us believe there are large expanses of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge that don't actually have wildlife.

Even John Boehner, who led the Republican delegation's trip to ANWR, argued just the opposite in his own National Review essay, saying that drilling and wildlife can peacefully co-exist, "including in the 10-02 Area."

Late Update: It seems Boehner used to argue that there was no wildlife there, too, but has evolved in his arguments over the last week or so. Apparently Bachmann didn't get the most recent memos.

MSNBC teases the results of a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll coming this evening:

With the news that Iraq's prime minister wants the US to set a timetable for withdrawal, 60% of registered voters believe it's a good idea for the US to set such a timetable, while 30% say it's a bad idea.

Twice as many voters agree with Obama and al-Maliki on Iraq than agree with McCain -- after weeks of being buffeted by the McCain message that calling for a withdrawal timeline is tantamount to advocating for surrender, defeat, and even dishonor to the troops.

The Republican National Committee has just unleashed a tough new radio attack ad that hits Obama for voting against the Iraq supplemental without withdrawal timelines last year, casting it as a vote against funding our troops in wartime:

In a somewhat puckish touch, the ad, which is timed to coincide with Obama's trip to Berlin, will run in Berlin, PA; Berlin, WI; and Berlin, NH.

"If Obama can't rise above politics to support our soldiers in a time of war, then how can he claim to have the strength to change the way Washington works?" the ad concludes. "John McCain is ready to lead. Barack Obama is not."

That last clause contrasting the candidates on readiness to lead represents a bit of a sharpening of the GOP message attacking Obama, something Republicans have struggled with, and foreshadows what's ahead.

That said, if Obama voted against funding the troops because he opposed a supplemental without timelines last spring, than McCain, too, voted against funding the troops when he opposed the other supplemental that did have timelines.

Full script after the jump.

Late Update: Just to clarify, the ad is running in the Johnstown-Altoona market in PA, the Green Bay-Appleton market in WI, and the Portland-Auburn market in NH.

Late Late Update: Obama spokesperson Hari Sevugan responds:

"There are honest differences between Senator Obama's position on Iraq and Senator McCain's, but there's no question that both support our troops. Under the RNC's definition, John McCain would have also chosen politics over our military when he urged George Bush to veto funding for the troops, and we know that's not the case. This is the sort of distasteful and misleading attack from the Rove playbook that the American people are tired of, that does nothing to give our troops the equipment they need, and distracts from the honest debate we should be having about how we can keep the country secure."

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As you may have heard by now, CBS is under attack today because the network mysteriously edited out of an interview with John McCain a passage where McCain flubbed the timeline of the Anbar Awakening and the surge, a serious foreign policy gaffe at a sensitive moment for the Arizona Senator.

The flubbed-timeline quote never aired. It's only available in a transcript on CBS' Web site.

Here's what a CBS spokesperson is sending reporters who ask for an explanation:

As all news organizations do with extended interviews, last night's Obama and McCain interviews were edited to fit the available time and to give viewers a fair expression of the candidates' major differences. The full transcript and video were and still are available at cbsnews.com.

Quite clearly, this doesn't even begin to address the criticism. It doesn't explain why the portion revealing McCain to have badly botched the surge timeline was edited from the piece -- even though McCain on the surge is basically the cornerstone of his argument that he has better foreign policy judgment and seasoning than Obama does.

We're asking CBS for further explanation. We'll keep you posted.

Barack Obama might just be taking a narrow lead in the big swing state of Florida, a new Rasmussen poll suggests -- a state where John McCain has been expected to do a lot better all throughout this year.

The numbers: Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the ±4.5% margin of error. In Rasmussen's last poll from almost a month ago, McCain had a seven-point lead. Obama's favorable and unfavorable numbers now stand at 51%-47%, a big improvement from his 44%-53% favorables a month ago.

Most recent polls have given McCain the lead here, but it's a close one.

Is the Obama campaign selectively referring to his long-absent father in some ads and not in others, depending on the target audience?

The question -- which was answered by the Obama campaign with a resounding No -- was posed to the Obama campaign on a conference call with reporters today where Obama aides unveiled a new Spanish language radio ad that emphasizes his fatherless upbringing to appeal to struggling immigrants.

"Some people have power and connections," says the ad, which will run in Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. "But most of us have to make our own way through life."

"This is true even for the man who could become the next President ... Barack Obama," the ad continues. "He grew up without a father -- raised by his mother with the support of his grandparents."

On the conference call, Politico reporter Ben Smith asked whether the decision to include his father in some ads but not others was a strategic one.

The Obama campaign flatly rejected the premise of the question. "There's no strategy going on to eliminate him by any stretch," senior Obama adviser Steve Hildebrand said. The campaign also cited Obama's books and speeches mentioning his dad.

Full script of the ad after the jump.

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It's too bad for Barack Obama that European countries don't have electoral votes -- a new set of polls from Gallup shows that he'd win by a landslide:

United Kingdom: Obama 60%, McCain 15%.

France: Obama 64%, McCain 4%.

Germany: Obama 62%, McCain 10%.

The Telegraph also reports that one third of the Conservative Party members of Parliament support Obama.

We can gather a few things from this. First, Obama is going to get a really big crowd when he speaks in Berlin. Second, there really may be something to the narrative that he can restore America's relations with other countries.

And finally, this gives the GOP more fodder for its coming attack ads charging that our European allies like Obama.

Check out this new attack ad from Minnesota GOP Senator Norm Coleman, who's locked in a tough race with comedian Al Franken -- it's Coleman's first TV spot directly attacking Franken for his history of dirty jokes:

"Foul-mouthed attacks on anyone he disagrees with," says the actor playing a blue-collar everyman. "Tasteless, sexist jokes. Writing all that juicy porn."

The "juicy porn" line is in reference to a comedy essay Franken wrote years ago for Playboy, featuring graphic sexual humor. And make no mistake: the Coleman campaign will be spending the next three and a half months mining all those jokes from Franken's career for attack material.

A new poll from Virginia suggests that Barack Obama is holding on to a narrow lead in this unlikely swing state, which Obama is making a major play for despite the fact that it hasn't voted Dem since 1964.

The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D): Obama 46%, McCain 44%, within the ±2.7% margin of error, and consistent with other recent polls showing a close race.

The poll has McCain winning white voters by a 53%-36% margin, much narrower than George W. Bush's 68%-32% margin in 2004. Curiously, the poll also has Obama ahead 77%-16% among black voters, a margin that will likely grow by the time Election Day rolls around.

Pro-war Washington Post editorial page editor Fred Hiatt has come up with a creative way to deal with al-Maliki's inconvenient endorsement of Obama's pull-out timeline: Pretend it never happened.

A WaPo editorial today On Obama's Iraq trip begins as follows...

THE INITIAL MEDIA coverage of Barack Obama's visit to Iraq suggested that the Democratic candidate found agreement with his plan to withdraw all U.S. combat forces on a 16-month timetable. So it seems worthwhile to point out that, by Mr. Obama's own account, neither U.S. commanders nor Iraq's principal political leaders actually support his strategy.

The basis for this claim? The editorial continues...

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has a history of tailoring his public statements for political purposes, made headlines by saying he would support a withdrawal of American forces by 2010. But an Iraqi government statement made clear that Mr. Maliki's timetable would extend at least seven months beyond Mr. Obama's. More significant, it would be "a timetable which Iraqis set" -- not the Washington-imposed schedule that Mr. Obama has in mind.

Now, there's a certain beauty in Hiatt's claim that the fact that the Iraqi government's timetable would extend seven months beyond Obama's somehow shows that Iraqi leaders don't support Obama's timing. After all, WaPo's headline writers were pushing this self-evidently absurd claim the other day, something Josh suggested might show that the edit page's slant was bleeding on to the news pages. Now here they are both pulling the same rhetorical hoax, like a pair of bumbling confidence-men who both accidentally play the same part in a two-person con-game.

To reiterate, the "seven month" claim is borderline farce.

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A fun guy to have a beer with?

The buzz began Monday when the columnist Robert D. Novak posted an item saying that sources close to the McCain campaign were "suggesting" he would announce his selection this week. On Monday night, en route from Buffalo to Manchester, N.H., reporters went to the front of Mr. McCain's plane to get a response.

Mr. McCain's initial reaction was not encouraging. "What do you want, you little jerks?" he asked, using what his staff members say is a term of endearment.

Frustration, frustration...

McCain Credits Surge For Event From Before The Surge
John McCain has been been caught in a big foreign policy slip, saying during his interview with CBS Evening News that the surge was responsible for the Anbar Awakening, an event that first happened before the surge. Even more embarrassing for the media -- a group that the McCain camp says is for Obama -- CBS edited the gaffe out of the broadcast version, but still left it in the online version.

Obama Visits Sites, Meets Officials In Israel
Barack Obama's tour of Israel has continued while all of us in America were asleep, with the candidate visiting the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial and museum in Jerusalem, then meeting with high-profile Israeli and Palestinian officials. On the list of those he has met with or will be meeting with later: Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.

McCain In Pennsylvania
John McCain is holding a town hall event at 10 a.m. ET in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, part of his tour of swing states while Barack Obama is overseas. Expect this event to stay in keeping with the tone of the last few days: Officially it's about domestic issues, but a good part of it will be spent bashing Obama on foreign policy issues relating to the countries he's now visiting.

Volunteer Tells McCain: Get New Staff
A McCain supporter volunteering for his campaign offered her advice to the candidate during his New Hampshire stop yesterday -- perhaps the best advice he's gotten this year. "You've got to make some changes," the woman said. "I've had problems with a lot of your paid staff."

Ron Paul Ready To Make Bigger Trouble For The GOP
Ron Paul's supporters have moved his planned "Rally For The Republic" -- essentially a massive protest of the Republican convention -- to the 15,000-seat Target Center in Minneapolis, a larger venue than originally planned. This should be a sight: A bunch of Paul-heads speaking out against the modern GOP, with the candidate himself joining in for the fun.

New Hampshire Senate Race Leans Dem
CQ has changed their rating on the New Hampshire Senate race from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democrat," giving Dem former Governor Jeanne Shaheen an edge over incumbent Republican John Sununu. The only surprising thing is that this didn't happen sooner -- Shaheen has led by comfortable margins in nearly every poll taken since she got in the race.

It seems Joe Lieberman just can't get enough of John Hagee. Lieberman took some time tonight to stop in and speak at Hagee's Christians United For Israel conference in Washington, even after John McCain was forced to reject Hagee's support over some rather controversial remarks.

Among Hagee's greatest hits: God brought Hitler to brutalize the Jews and thus spur them back to Israel, the Catholic Church is the Great Whore of the Book of Revelation, and Hurricane Katrina was God's punishment against New Orleans for its tolerance of homosexuality. Plus his overriding fascination is the Apocalypse, and he's constantly urging military strikes against Iran.

The kicker: Lieberman admitted that a whole lot of people told him he shouldn't be speaking there. "The bond that I feel with Pastor Hagee and each and every one of you is much stronger than that, and so I am proud to stand with you tonight," he added.

A new poll suggests that Barack Obama is ahead in Colorado, a Western state that his campaign is actively targeting to turn from red to blue -- but at the same time, a lot of undecideds could be headed towards John McCain.

The new numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 47%, consistent with other polls that have shown a close race here. Before leaners were factored in, it was Obama ahead 49%-42%, meaning that John McCain could really pick up here as more people make up their minds during a tough campaign.

The stakes in Colorado are enormous: Flipping Colorado is one of the few routes that gets Obama to the White House in the event of losses in Florida and Ohio.

Check out this fun new ad from Mark Begich, the Dem candidate running against ethically-challenged GOP Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, depicting Begich sending dour men meant to be Washington politicians through a car wash:

The ad is consistent with Begich's strategy so far: Talking about ethics and hitting unnamed crooked politicians in Washington, without directly mentioning Stevens or his specific investigations just yet.

Okay, here's where McCain's claim that Obama got the surge wrong is headed: Obama isn't merely denying that the surge succeeded; Obama is also denying the success of the troops.

In an interview set to air on CBS tonight, McCain was asked to respond to Obama's assertion that the Sunni awakening and the Shiite government targeting militias was responsible for improving security in Iraq, along with the troops' work.

After a long answer, McCain said the following, according to an advance excerpt:

"Our troops will come home with honor. And we won't be defeated. And there won't be chaos in the region. There won't be increased Iranian influence in the region. And it will have a bearing on what happens in Afghanistan, as well as the entire region of the world. And I'm proud of what they've done. And to deny their success -- I think is a fundamental misunderstanding of what happened. The American people will make a judgment."

McCain also accused Obama of denying that the troops had made possible the success of the surge, calling it "a great disservice to young men and women who are serving and have sacrificed."

All of this is false. Obama is emphatically not denying the success of the troops. He's denying the success of the Iraqi political process. He has repeatedly said for months now that the troops were responsible for reducing violence.

Obama, Feb. 21: "I think it is indisputable that we've seen violence reduced in Iraq. And that's a credit to our brave men and women in uniform."

Obama, July 15th: "As I have said many times, our troops have performed brilliantly in lowering the level of violence."

Obama, today: "In Iraq, we reviewed the gains that have been made in lowering the levels of violence thanks to the outstanding efforts of our military, the increased capabilities of the Iraq security forces..."

Not that facts matter, of course.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Dem party committee that has the most money in the bank, has now allotted practically all its available cash on hand for ad time this fall, with a Dem source providing us the latest list of ad reservations in swing districts throughout the country.


The latest list, which adds up to $17.6 million in 20 districts across the country, paints an extraordinary picture of just how grim the GOP's outlook is in House races: About three fourths of the money the DCCC is plunking down is going to races for seats that the GOP currently holds and now has to defend.

What's more, some of these districts where Dems are vying to knock off GOP incumbents are historically hostile territory for Dems, such as the open Second District in Alabama, or the Idaho seat now held by right-wing Rep. Bill Sali.

Read more »

Republicans are trying to argue that they've caught Obama in a gaffe because he flew into Jordan today in an Osprey aircraft -- despite the fact that last year he spoke out against funding the aircraft, describing it as wasteful.

It's not the most devastating hit ever launched. And it doesn't seem to be getting lots of traction today.

But alas for these GOPers, it turns out that John McCain also used the Osprey for his trip to Iraq in May of this year -- even though he, too, criticized the project as wasteful!

You can see pictures of McCain arriving in the Osprey here and here. But back in 2007, McCain dismissed the Osprey as untested and too costly.

And it actually gets worse, too. As you can see in those pics, McCain was wearing body armor when leaving his Osprey in Iraq. And McCain can be called out under the rules of Washington discourse as having voted against body armor, the sort of charge his campaign regularly lobs at Obama. He did, after all, vote against the appropriations bill that included a time-line for leaving Iraq as well as funding for body armor and other approps.

So on his trip to Iraq, McCain used not one, but two things he previously criticized or voted against in some fashion -- the Osprey and body armor. But who's counting?

As you all know, McCain has repeatedly referred to "Czechoslovakia" in recent days, even though that country hasn't existed since the beginning of the Clinton administration.

Well, at a town hall meeting in New Hampshire today, McCain again made the same slip-up. But this time, he caught himself, and proceeded to deliver a rather extensive mea culpa of sorts for his serial mistake. It's worth a watch...

"From time to time some of us misstate and say Czechoslovakia when the fact is it's the Czech Republic," McCain said, with a bit of a giggle. Not to be a bad sport and all, but not all of "us" are running for president on a claim of foreign policy seasoning and superiority. But whatev.

Meanwhile, Politico's Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei round up McCain's multiple gaffes and become the first to openly ask an "uncomfortable" question: "Are the gaffes the result of his age? "

Separately, AmericaBlog's John Aravosis notes a rather less humorous moment from McCain's town hall today.

Barack Obama might not actually be doing so well in Ohio, after all, a new Rasmussen poll suggests.

The numbers: McCain 52%, Obama 42%. A month ago, John McCain had a tight one-point lead. McCain's push for offshore drilling could be helping him here, as 64% of respondents were found to support it, against only 22% opposing it.

This is the opposite of yesterday's release by Public Policy Polling (D), which gave Obama an eight-point lead.

The McCain campaign has come up with an intriguing new way to sell his opposition to a timetable for withdrawal: McCain just might withdraw from Iraq sooner than Obama's 16 month deadline!

"He'd like troops to come home earlier than 16 months if the conditions allow it," said Congresswoman Heather Wilson of New Mexico, on a conference call with reporters just now. "Senator Obama has said it's a 16-month timeline no matter what."

Wilson walked this line back a bit later on, reminding people that any such withdrawal would have to be based on conditions on the ground, and might take longer: "Whether that happens in 12 months, or 16 months, or 24 months, the important thing is that our troops come home with victory and America's vital national interests secured."

One is reminded of George Orwell's classic novel 1984, in which the ruling regime ran an intentionally never-ending war with the frequent promise in news updates that it was "within measurable distance of its end."

Here's the audio from the call:

Click To Play

The campaign of John McCain -- who once described the media as his "base" -- has come up with a pretty creative way to portray the media as "in love" with Barack Obama, blasting two versions of this video right into the in-boxes of the swooning reporters themselves...

It actually is a pretty funny idea, we have to admit. MSNBC takes an especially hard hit, with Chris "Thrill Up My Leg" Matthews singled out for particularly scalding ridicule.

Still, all that said, McCain is no stranger to media adulation, now is he.

The McCain camp is holding an online contest for folks to decide between two versions of the "Obama love" vid. The first is above; the second is after the jump.

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Obama's presser in Jordan has now wrapped up, and one thing that was striking is how aggressively -- again -- he moved to appropriate Republican rhetoric about the war on terrorism.

Obama said he'd decided to go to Afghanistan first because it's the "central front in the war on terror," the place "where 9/11 was planned" and where terrorists are "plotting new attacks against the United States."

"We have to succeed in taking the fight to the terrorists," Obama said at another point, calling for a broader policy that defeats terrorists, reduces the spread of nukes, and achieves "true energy security."

As we've noted here before, with John McCain painting Obama's Iraq policies as a "surrender," a central political challenge Obama faces is driving home the message that his national security policies constitute going on offense against global threats. He tried to do precisely that today by appropriating language the GOP uses about Iraq and instead using it to describe Afghanistan, his first stop on the trip.

Here's Obama on terror...

And there was one other nice touch.

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Barack Obama's press conference is underway now in Amman, Jordan, and he's detailing the private conversation he had last night with General David Petraeus.

Obama told reporters that Petraeus asked for "as much flexibility as possible," and revealed that he told Petraeus that he understood Petraeus' desire but told the general that his own job as commander in chief "extends beyond Iraq."

"The U.S. military can't be there forever," Obama said at the presser, adding that he'd had a "terrific conversation" with Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker. "The job they've done on the ground is extraordinary," Obama continued.

"In his role as commander on the ground, he wants to attain as much flexibility as possible," Obama said of his talk with Petraeus. "What I emphasized to him was, if I were in his shoes, I would probably feel the same way."

"But my job extends beyond Iraq," Obama said.

More soon.

Late Update: I've removed Obama's answer to the question about the surge, because I can't be certain precisely what was asked. We're going back to check the tape and will bring you the question and answer soon.

Late Late Update: At the presser, Obama was asked something to the effect of whether he was ignoring his commanders' advice. He rejected that premise, saying:

"The notion is that either I do exactly what my military commanders [say] or I'm ignoring their advice. No, I'm factoring in their advice, but placing it in the broader strategic framework that's required."

Works for me.

Late Late Late Update: Here's vid of Obama discussing his talk with Petraeus...

The Huffington Post's Sam Stein has a terrific catch:

Among the most high-profile Jews in Congress, Lieberman is viewed far more unfavorably than the presumptive Democratic nominee, according to a new poll. Only 37 percent of Jews view the Connecticut Independent in a favorable light compared to 48 percent who have a negative perception. As for Obama, 60 percent of Jews view him favorably while 34 percent view him unfavorably.

Polling data here. Recall that Lieberman was recently asked about concerns that his attacks on Obama are creating the impression that Obama is anti-Israel. Lieberman replied: "It's my way of thinking that if I've concluded, as I have, that John McCain is best for our country, then why wouldn't I do that?"

The above numbers suggest that it's perfectly probable that Lieberman's support for McCain is actually hurting the Arizona Senator -- among Jews. Boy would we love to see polling on that.

Obama Arrives In Jordan
Barack Obama's foreign policy tour continues, with the candidate having arrived in Jordan after his two-day tour of Iraq. Obama is set to hold a press conference expected at around 10 a.m. ET, will meet with King Abdullah, and will later a attend a state dinner.

McCain In New Hampshire Today
John McCain will be campaigning today in Rochester, New Hampshire, a swing town in the middle of what is very much a swing state. McCain has long been popular here, but a recent University of New Hampshire poll gives Barack Obama a narrow lead.

Right-Wing Group Promoting Anti-Obama Documentary
A right-wing group called Citizens United has produced a new anti-Obama documentary, after having previously sunk a lot of capital into a similar project about Hillary Clinton. Here's their commercial that's been running on Fox News portraying Obama as an over-hyped media darling:

McCain Meeting With Potential VP Jindal Tomorrow
John McCain will be meeting tomorrow with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, in a somewhat out-of-character stop in a state that is already safely in his column. Expect a lot of VP speculation to surround the visit, on top of the report by Bob Novak that McCain could announce his pick this week.

Dem Chances Go Up For Colorado Senate Seat?
In yet another sign that Democrats are poised to expand their Senate majority this fall, CQ has changed their rating on the open GOP-held seat in Colorado from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic." Democratic candidate Mark Udall has taken a lead in the polls, due in part to the scandals hitting Republican Bob Schaffer over his connections to Jack Abramoff, the Marianas Islands sweatshops, the Kurdish oil deal in Iraq, and other problems he's had.

Senate Candidate Has Campaign Repay His Self-Financing Loan
In a sign that he might not be too dedicated to his uphill Senate bid, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore has used campaign donations to repay himself the $50,000 loan he initially made to the campaign. The story was first flagged by Ron Gunzburger, and then confirmed to us by Gilmore spokesperson Ana Gamonol.

Now this is just sad. Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican who has long led the conservative forces of his state, has been denied his customary position as a voting delegate to the Republican National Convention -- and it's being done by an even more conservative bunch.

The Iowa Christian Alliance, a successor to the state's Christian Coalition, has effectively taken over the state party's executive committee, and they obviously weren't happy with Grassley. It does seem curious, though, when one considers that he came up in the ranks of conservative activists and was elected to the Senate in 1980 on Ronald Reagan's coattails, and is a reliably conservative vote on issues like abortion and gay rights. What could have gotten them angry?

The Washington Times, of all places, has a hypothesis: Grassley teamed up with Democrat Max Baucus to investigate the finances of televangelists.

The Washington Post's Dan Balz gets at a point I've been hitting here pretty regularly: That one of the keys to Obama's success is that he's projecting a degree of confidence on foreign policy that has long eluded some Dems...

What is striking is how Obama's campaign differs from past Democratic campaigns. In earlier years, Democratic candidates couldn't wait to move off of foreign policy and onto domestic issues, aware that their party more or less owned the domestic debate, while Republicans generally held the high ground on national security. The more time they could spend focusing the contest on domestic issues, the better their chances of winning.

That was true certainly for John F. Kerry against President Bush four years ago, and it's clear that the polls currently show that national security issues are McCain's one key area of strength against Obama. Obama's advisers believe the economy will dominate the fall campaign, but the candidate shows no indication that he will try to avoid engagement with McCain over foreign policy.

Obama has, with the exception of FISA, largely held to a tenet that has defined his campaign since the beginning: That through persuasion he can win arguments with the GOP on national security; that this turf needn't be ceded to the GOP.

When McCain was attacking Obama's Iraq plan, he gave a big speech doubling down on withdrawal. And on this trip, Obama has managed the neat trick of projecting a sense that he's setting the agenda here, even though it came after weeks of McCain attacks on him for not visiting Iraq (public statements from al-Maliki and an Iraqi government spokesperson supporting Obama's withdrawal time-line didn't hurt in this regard). That's partly what made the trip abroad such a high-stakes gamble, and thus far, it's clearly paying off.

It's worth repeating that the key is not simply that Obama believes that he can win disputes on national security. It's that he keeps saying so. This projects confidence and leadership, and prevents the McCain campaign from being perceived as being on offense in an area where polls show McCain still holds an advantage.

Indeed, asked by CBS on Sunday whether he ever lacked confidence that he could prevail in the foreign policy arena, he offered a one-word answer: "Never." Just in case you were wondering.

As you know, we've been posting here regularly about the GOP's frequent pushing of the myth that China is drilling for oil off American shores.

Well here's another outlandish oil-drilling line: If not for the Dems in Congress, gas would cost two bucks a gallon!

Here's what Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota had to say in an op-ed for National Review, promoting drilling in ANWR:

The fact of the matter is that Congress is standing in the way of $2-a-gallon gas. It is Speaker Pelosi and the House Democrats who are refusing to let commonsense energy legislation come to the floor.

That's right: Bachmann says that we can cut the price of gas from over four dollars down to two, a change of more than 50%, by just opening up some new drilling. What wonderful news!

The problem, however, is that this just isn't true when you're working on the scale of a vast global marketplace.

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The New York Times has just responded to the accusation lobbed today by the McCain campaign that the paper was displaying bias against the Republican candidate by asking him to rewrite an Op-ed about Iraq because it didn't meet the paper's standards for publication.

Times spokesperson Catherine Mathis sends over this...

It is standard procedure on our Op-Ed page, and that of other newspapers, to go back and forth with an author on his or her submission. We look forward to publishing Senator McCain's views in our paper just as we have in the past. We have published at least seven Op-Ed pieces by Senator McCain since 1996. The New York Times endorsed Senator McCain as the Republican candidate in the presidential primaries. We take his views very seriously.

The McCain camp had charged that the rejection proved that the paper was unreceptive to his views on the war. But the paper's Opinion Page Editor, David Shipley, had emailed the campaign with a specific objection: He wanted not just an attack on Obama, but a detailed explanation of McCain's plan, including (gasp!) a definition of what constitutes "victory."

If you take a look at McCain's original Op ed submission, you can see that it's little more than a broadside aimed at Obama's Iraq plan combined with the de rigeur hailing of McCain's own prescience on the surge.

Please. This one's a no-brainer.

A new Rasmussen poll of Alaska has some big news: Democratic candidate for Senate Mark Begich now leads long-time incumbent Republican Ted Stevens by a margin of 52%-44%, in a deep-red state that hasn't sent a Dem to Congress since 1974.

Stevens has been easily re-elected since he was first appointed to his seat in the late 1960s, but his many ethics scandals have slowly but surely dragged his popularity down. He now has only a 50% approval rating to a nearly-identical 48% unfavorable rating, compared to Begich's 63%-34% favorables.

In short, Republicans could be on track to lose this seat unless something drastic happens.

Unlike the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times reports it clearly, accurately, and unambiguously: Iraqi leaders agree with Barack Obama:

Iraqi leaders support U.S. withdrawal in 2010

BAGHDAD -- Iraqi leaders told Barack Obama today that they hope U.S. combat troops can be out of Iraq by the end of 2010, according to a government spokesman, a time frame similar to one favored by the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Couldn't be clearer.

Wow, this is getting kind of surreal. As I noted below, The Washington Post has yet to do a stand-alone story on al-Maliki's endorsement of Obama's troop-withdrawal timeline.

Now look how WaPo is reporting on Iraqi government official Ali al-Dabbagh's assertion that he's hopeful that U.S. troops will be out by 2010:

"Eight months later than Obama's proposal." Got that? al-Dabbagh's comments are at odds with Obama's plan.

Can this be real? First, unlike the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and the Associated Press, WaPo buries Maliki's comments -- and now this?

There is still some lack of clarity about what al-Dabbagh said. WaPo quotes him as follows: "We can't give any schedules or dates, but the Iraqi government sees the suitable date for withdrawal of the U.S. forces is by the end of 2010."

On the other hand, the Associated Press' version makes it sound like he wants them out by some time in 2010 and didn't specify that they should only be out by the end of the year, not before.

It doesn't really matter, however. Even the quote that says he wants them out by the end of that year doesn't really preclude them being out earlier that same year. So spinning this as somehow counter to Obama's plan is borderline farce.

We'd been wondering when the next Ohio poll would come along, and Public Policy Polling has just released one finding Obama holding onto a healthy eight-point lead in Ohio:

Obama 48% (50% last month)

McCain 40% (39% last month)

The three-point shift is within the margin of error.

The numbers suggest Obama's problems with blue-collar whites in this industrial state may have been overstated: He's only trailing McCain among whites by four points, 46%-42%. Nor does he appear to have a problem with female voters: Obama's leading among them by 20 points.

The DSCC is making a huge investment of over $5 million in the Maine Senate race, Advertising Age reports -- a sign that Senate Dems will use their massive financial advantage over the GOP to expand the map into some very tough races.

The infusion by the the Dems in this race shows that Chuck Schumer and company are throwing their weight around in a big way, as polling has consistently shown incumbent Republican Susan Collins ahead of Dem Congressman Tom Allen by a sizable margin. But $5 million thrown into this small New England state could very well change those numbers around.

It would also force the lesser-funded NRSC to respond, taking attention away from other seats where they're playing defense.

You may have heard that Matt Drudge "rules our world" -- the "we" in question being members of the political media, who helplessly march off like pod people to cover stories when Drudge tells them to with his little siren.

That Drudge rules our world is something you hear constantly from members of the press themselves. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, for instance, recently hailed Drudge's "ability to drives news cycles" and the "power Drudge has to push a particular storyline or a broader narrative in the race."

Except that it turns out that Drudge doesn't always rule the world of political reporters. Yesterday, Drudge blared the following banner headline for around 20 hours straight:

While The Times and the Associated Press finally got around to posting stand-alone stories on Maliki's endorsement of Obama's withdrawal time-line late last night, WaPo downplayed the news on Sunday and only flagged it in the 18th paragraph of its story today on Obama's trip. No stand alone story from WaPo yet. And has this story gotten the sort of wall-to-wall cable coverage that other Drudge-flacked tales have?

The point, as has been made here repeatedly, is that reporters and editors make editorial decisions to follow Drudge. They themselves confer on him whatever influence he has, and then in turn claim to be hypnotically transfixed into obeying him.

As we can see on the Maliki story, reporters and editors do have the power to refrain from treating Drudge as their assignment editor. I thought Drudge ruled WaPo's world. What happened?

The Associated Press adds some more detail about the quote we noted below from the Iraqi government official saying he wants the troops out by 2010:

Al-Dabbagh said the government did not endorse a fixed date, but hoped American combat units could be out of Iraq sometime in 2010. That timeframe falls within the 16-month withdrawal plan proposed by Obama, who arrived in Iraq earlier in the day as part of a congressional fact-finding team.

"We are hoping that in 2010 that combat troops will withdraw from Iraq," al-Dabbagh told reporters, noting that any withdrawal plan was subject to change if the level of violence kicks up again.

We'd like still more direct quotes, please. The paraphrase here says the government wants the troops out by 2010. But the direct quote isn't quite as conclusive.

Either way, however, this is very significant. As TPM alum Spencer Ackerman puts it:

"There's nowhere left for McCain to go here. Either he endorses a timetable for withdrawal, which he has consistently said would be a disaster, and cedes his only big issue to Obama -- and more importantly, concedes that Obama's judgment is sound -- or he deliberately ignores the concerted, expressed wishes of the Iraqi government in order to prolong an unpopular war."

Pretty much, yeah.

This is interesting. The McCain campaign, which has long thought it holds an advantage on foreign policy issues, is shifting the focus to domestic concerns with a new ad blaming the gas crisis on Barack Obama...

The ad, which will run on national cable and in "key states" (no further details given), reflects the fact that the McCain campaign believes it has staked out an advantage on the gas-crisis issue. The Dem polling firm Democracy Corps recently concluded:

"McCain's message adding domestic oil production to a policy of alternative energy investment and conservation is favored over Obama's message that blames oil companies, calls for investments in alternative energy, and rejects limited offshore drilling."

It also suggests that McCain advisers want to move the discussion away from the combo of the Obama trip optics, Nouri al-Maliki's recent endorsement of Obama's withdrawal timetable, and the White House's talk of a withdrawal "horizon."

For the first time, the McCain campaign is trying to dismiss Maliki's endorsement of Obama's troop-withdrawal timeline by questioning the translation -- even though a published report in the New York Times convincingly argues that the translation was accurate.

In a conference called just now with reporters, McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann responded to a question about Malik's comments by citing "the reaction from the Iraqi government, which made it clear that there were apparently some translation problems in the quote, that's not the position of the prime minister."

"I certainly can't believe that the Obama campaign would take a quote that's already been clarified out of context, and try to hang their Iraq policy on that," Scheunemann later added.

Of course, it's worth noting a few things: The New York Times independently verified the translation based on the original tape, and the "clarification" only came 18 hours later, after Bush Administration officials called to complain about it. And on top of that, the Iraqi official who issued the statement is now saying he's hopeful for a withdrawal.

Here's the audio from the call:

Click To Play

If there's still any lingering controversy over whether the Iraqi prime minister's endorsement of Obama's withdrawal timetable was mistranslated, this just-breaking news should really render that whole debate moot:

Iraq's government spokesman is hopeful that U.S. combat forces could be out of the country by 2010.

Ali al-Dabbagh made the comments following a meeting in Baghdad on Monday between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama, who arrived in Iraq earlier in the day.

The timeframe is similar to Obama's proposal to pull back combat troops within 16 months.

The key here is that this is the same Iraqi official who issued his "clarification" of Maliki's remarks -- the one that was distributed by CENTCOM.

Of course, we'd prefer to have al-Dabbagh's direct quotes, and we'll bring them to you when they're available.

Late Update: Some direct quotes here.

This was reported a few days ago, but it got surprisingly little attention, and it seems worth flagging in light of Obama's trip abroad. Check out this little nugget buried in that New York Times piece on Barack Obama's cast of 300 or so foreign policy advisers:

Another person who has contributed outside advice is former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, whom Mr. Obama has been wooing. Mr. Powell, a Republican, has a friendship of decades with Mr. McCain, but friends say he has felt excluded from Mr. McCain's foreign policy operation and was impressed when Mr. Obama called on him in June. Mr. Powell also met around the same time with Mr. McCain.

Powell recently met with Obama and has made it clear that he won't let any endorsement be dictated by party allegiance, so neglecting him seems like a pretty big oversight on the McCain camp's part. Could Obama's wooing of him eventually pay off?

Obama Arrives In Iraq
Barack Obama has arrived in Iraq, a big part of his overseas tour and his efforts to pitch his proposals on getting out of Iraq and refocusing on Afghanistan. On the agenda: A meeting with General David Petraeus, the man most credited with the surge, and another with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has endorsed Obama's proposed withdrawal timetable.

McCain In Maine Today
John McCain is in Maine today, a Democratic-leaning state that is favored to go to Barack Obama, as part of his campaign's plan to focus on economic issues while Barack Obama is out of the country. True to his campaign's themes, he'll be holding an event at the Maine Military Museum in South Portland.

Dobson: Maybe I'll Support McCain, After All
Perhaps James Dobson isn't so inflexible: The Christian Right leader who vowed before that he would not vote for McCain is now hinting that he just might endorse the Republican candidate, in order to stop Barack Obama. "His (Obama's) radical positions on life, marriage and national security force me to reevaluate the candidacy of our only other choice, John McCain," Dobson said.

Obama Pulled In $25 Million In One Day
Wow. The Politico took a closer look at Barack Obama's June fundraising numbers, and found this simply amazing stat: On the last day of the month, Obama took in a whopping $25 million. That's more than John McCain took in for the whole month.

Obama And McCain To Visit Megachurch Before Conventions
The two presidential candidates are set to visit Rev. Rick Warren's Saddleback Church on August 16, a joint venue picked out for before they officially become their parties' nominees. The two candidates will appear briefly on stage together, then sit down for separate interviews with Warren on issues such as AIDS, poverty and the environment.

Poll: Media Want To Help Obama Win
The meme that the press is helping Barack Obama definitely has its adherents with a new Rasmussen poll showing 49% of voters believe the media will try to help Obama win. By contrast, only 14% believe reporters are trying to help John McCain, and only 24% say most reporters try to remain unbiased.

CQ: Franken's Chances Go Down In Minnesota Race
CQ has downgraded Al Franken's chances in the Minnesota Senate race, changing their rating from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Republican." Democrats have high hopes that they can beat incumbent GOPer Norm Coleman in a state likely to vote for Barack Obama, but Franken's own problems on the trail have left him trailing Coleman in most polls.

The McCain campaign appears to have come up with their response to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's endorsement of Barack Obama's withdrawal proposal: Dig in, and keep insisting that U.S. commanders oppose it.

The McCain camp sent out a statement today quoting Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, from his appearance on Fox News Sunday.

"Today, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mike Mullen, the nation's highest ranking officer, made clear that he believes such an approach could be 'very dangerous,'" said McCain adviser Randy Scheunemann. "Admiral Mullen further added that his view is shared by U.S. commanders in Iraq, who are 'adamant about continuing progress, about making decisions based on what's actually happening in the battle space.'"

It can't be overstated how much of an awkward position the McCain team has been put in by Maliki. By sticking to their position on an indefinite U.S. presence, they now appear willing to remain in Iraq against the stated wishes of the Iraqi government, if that's what it comes to. And as such, they have to cite current military leadership in order to convince people that it's a matter of necessity for America's security.

Curiously, the statement never directly mentions Maliki, only ascribing the timetable to Obama -- and it mentions Mullen twice. Full statement after the jump.

Read more »

Obama Meets With Karzai, Calls For More Troops In Afghanistan
Barack Obama met this weekend with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a leader whom he has criticized for a lack of effectiveness in fighting terrorism, and later reiterated his call for more troops to be sent to the country. "I think the situation is getting urgent enough that we have to start doing something now," Obama told CBS' Face The Nation.

It's Official: Obama To Speak At Berlin's Victory Column
The Obama campaign has officially announced that the candidate will speak in Berlin at the Victory Column, not the Brandenburg Gate. The Obama campaign had originally looked at the Brandenburg gate as a site for the speech, but was discouraged by the German government that frowned upon using the site of Ronald Reagan's "Tear Down This Wall" speech for electioneering purposes.

Iraqi Government Walks Back On Maliki's Support Of Obama Plan
The Iraqi government is backing off of Prime MInister Nouri al-Maliki's seeming endorsement of Barack Obama's proposed withdrawal timetable, saying his remarks were "not conveyed accurately" by Der Spiegel. Nevertheless, it's hard to see where there could be room to misunderstand Maliki saying troops should leave "As soon as possible, as far a we're concerned," unless it's outright fabrication -- which the government is not contending.

McCain Campaign Now Using Up Cash Reserves
John McCain's campaign has entered a new phase of their fundraising strategy: From this point out, the campaign will be spending far more than it takes in, running out its reserves before the candidate gets his public funding for the general election and would thus be barred from using private money. "Up to this point we have been accumulating capital; now we will start spending down that capital," said campaign manager Rick Davis.

Lieberman: Obama's Iraq Visit Is Proof Of McCain Being Right
In an appearance this morning on Fox News Sunday, Joe Lieberman advanced the latest argument from the McCain campaign against Barack Obama's overseas trip: "The fact is that if Barack Obama's policy on Iraq had been implemented, Barack Obama couldn't go to Iraq today. It wouldn't be safe."

NYT: Hillary Being Vetted For VP, But Is A Long Shot
The New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton is being vetted by the Obama campaign as a possible running mate. That said, the chance of actually being picked is reportedly not very high, with sources saying her chances have actually gone down in the last month.