The presidential campaigns battled today over the significance of Nouri al-Maliki's endorsement of Barack Obama's proposed 16-month withdrawal timetable -- with the McCain campaign making the rather curious claim that Maliki was actually backing up McCain's position.

The Obama campaign reacted to Maliki's Der Spiegel interview with a statement on how the foreign policy debate is continuing to move towards Obama's position. Key quote:

For months, Senator McCain has called any plan to redeploy our troops from Iraq "surrender" - even though we'd be leaving Iraq to a sovereign Iraqi government. Now, the Bush Administration is embracing the negotiation of troop withdrawals with the Iraqi government - a position that Senator Obama called for last September, and reiterated on Monday in the New York Times. And now, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki supports Barack Obama's timeline, telling Der Speigel that, "Barack Obama is right when he talks about 16 months."

The McCain campaign responded with this statement from top foreign-policy adviser Randy Scheunemann, emphasis ours:

"The difference between John McCain and Barack Obama is that Barack Obama advocates an unconditional withdrawal that ignores the facts on the ground and the advice of our top military commanders. John McCain believes withdrawal must be based on conditions on the ground. Prime Minister Maliki has repeatedly affirmed the same view, and did so again today. Timing is not as important as whether we leave with victory and honor, which is of no apparent concern to Barack Obama. The fundamental truth remains that Senator McCain was right about the surge and Senator Obama was wrong. We would not be in the position to discuss a responsible withdrawal today if Senator Obama's views had prevailed."

For the record, here's what Maliki actually said:

"US presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."

Obama Arrives In Afghanistan
Barack Obama has arrived in Afghanistan, meeting with American General Jeffrey Schloesser, commander of NATO forces. "I want to, obviously, talk to the commanders and get a sense both in Afghanistan and in Baghdad of, you know, what the most, their biggest concerns are," Obama told reporters before he first departed for the trip in secret on Thursday, "and I want to thank our troops for the heroic work that they've been doing."

John McCain Raising Money Today
John McCain does not have any public events scheduled for today, but will instead be holding a series of fundraising events.

Maliki Backs Obama's 16-Month Timetable
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has endorsed Barack Obama's call for a timetable to leave Iraq, a development with serious ramifications for the American debate over foreign policy. "US presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months," Maliki told German news magazine Der Spiegel. "That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."

McCain To Focus On Economy This Week
John McCain is set to use this week to focus on economic issues, while his rival Barack Obama is overseas focusing on foreign policy. McCain will then hold campaign events this week in Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, where he will try to shore up his image on kitchen-table issues where he's tended to lag behind his Dem rival.

LAT: Romney Getting On McCain's Good Side
The Los Angeles Times reports that Mitt Romney has more and more maneuvered his way into John McCain's favor, with active fundraising efforts to help the man who defeated him in the primaries: "Even if McCain goes on to pick someone else as his running mate, Romney's dutiful, well-noted slogging for the party's winner after his own defeat will help bolster his standing within a GOP party that traditionally awards its presidential nominations to the next in line."

New Right-Wing Ad: Obama "Worse Than A Flip-Flopper!"
A new right-wing group called Let Freedom Ring is launching an attack ad against Barack Obama, which it says will run with an ad buy of several hundred thousand dollars. The ad accuses Obama of being worse than a flip-flopper, holding two contrary positions at the same time:

Rudy Starts New Leadership PAC For New York Republicans
In a sign that Rudy Giuliani might not be done just yet with electoral politics, the former mayor has started a new leadership PAC called Solutions America -- which despite its national name, will reportedly aid New York Republican. Take it as a sign that Rudy might be looking at a run for governor in 2010.

In a sign that senior Democratic officials remain deeply concerned that post-primary bitterness could imperil Barack Obama's chances, two top Democratic officials have emailed a sharply-worded letter to major donors and other leading Dems confessing "fatigue and irritation" at those withholding full support from Obama and demanding that they get behind him "without conditions or demands."

"I supported Hillary Clinton and am proud and pleased that I did," reads the email, which was written by Donald Fowler, a former DNC chair and DNC member-at-large who was one of Hillary's most prominent supporters. Alice Germond, the Secretary of the DNC, is also a signatory.

"But she lost," continues the email, which was sent our way by a source. Barack Obama won. It's over."

"It is time for all Democrats, supporters of Senator Clinton and all other contenders for the nomination, to stand with him to secure his election and the election of Democrats at all levels of competition," the email continues.

The email also laces sharply into Hillary supporters who remain embittered by the primary and are demanding things in exchange for their support.

"I must confess a bit of fatigue and irritation with people who continue to carp, complain, and criticize the results of the primary and lay down conditions for their support," it reads. "It is time to act in a mature and resourceful fashion. It's time to put the primaries behind us. It's time to support Barack Obama without conditions or demands."

Pretty stern stuff. The full email after the jump.

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Some of the details of Obama's world tour were kept secret for security reasons but once Obama landed in Kabul Saturday the embargo on that portion of his trip was lifted.

Here's an early pool report from the John McCormick of the Chicago Tribune, as provided by the Obama campaign:

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The McCain campaign has released the following statement from Phil Gramm, as part of a continuing effort to distance itself from the controversies caused by Gramm's "Nation of Whiners" remark:

"It is clear to me that Democrats want to attack me rather than debate Senator McCain on important economic issues facing the country. That kind of distraction hurts not only Senator McCain's ability to present concrete programs to deal with the country's problems, it hurts the country. To end this distraction and get on with the real debate, I hereby step down as Co-Chair of the McCain Campaign and join the growing number of rank-and-file McCain supporters."

This came in the wake of a few days of reports from Robert Novak, indicating that Gramm and McCain were still on good terms and that the candidate was telling his adviser not to worry about the controversy -- despite public declarations by economic adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin that Gramm wasn't advising them anymore.

One question still unanswered: Gramm may have abdicated his honorary co-chair title, but will he still be giving McCain economic advice, or not?

Late Update: Jonathan Martin asked the McCain camp whether Gramm will stop advising the candidate, and reports that spokesman Tucker Bounds "only said that it was Gramm's decision to step down from his co-chair post."

The McCain campaign has yet to comment on a Reuters story that broke this afternoon reporting that McCain said he believed that Obama would be in Iraq "today or tomorrow," despite such details usually being kept secret for security reasons.

"I believe that either today or tomorrow -- and I'm not privy to his schedule -- Sen. Obama will be landing in Iraq with some other Senators," McCain said.

As of yet, it's unclear exactly how serious a breach this is. Some media have reported obliquely on the timing of Obama's trip, though to our knowledge no media have named the two days Obama is supposed to be in Iraq. It's also unclear as yet whether McCain was sharing inside info or simply passing on what he thought had already been reported.

But the McCain campaign has yet to offer any public clarification.

The Obama campaign has also declined to comment.

Obama campaign spokesperson Bill Burton releases a statement hitting back at the McCain campaign's ad pillorying Obama on Iraq:

"While Barack Obama wants to change American foreign policy to wind down the war in Iraq and address the grave threat posed by a resurgent al Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan, John McCain offers this patently misleading negative ad. Given his calls for a civil campaign, it's disappointing that Senator McCain has slipped so easily into the same, tired campaign tactics that have become so familiar to the American people."

The McCain campaign has just unleashed a brutally negative new TV ad on national cable and key battleground states, accusing Barack Obama of shifting his positions and failing to support the troops:

"He hasn't been to Iraq in years. He voted against funding our troops," the announcer says. "Positions that helped him win his nomination. Now Obama is changing to help himself become president."

"John McCain has always supported our troops and the surge that's working. McCain. Country first."

Late Update: The Obama campaign has responded to the ad.

The McCain campaign is declining to disavow a top surrogate's assertion that "the Muslims" have said that "either we kneel or they're going to kill us."

As noted below, the comment was made by Bud Day, a frequent leading surrogate for McCain, on a conference call with Florida reporters. I asked the campaign whether they agreed with the assertion.

Here's what McCain spokesperson Michael Goldfarb sent me:

"The threat we face is from radical Islamic extremism."

This isn't quite how Day described the threat -- the McCain camp attributes it not to "the Muslims," but rather to radical Islamic ideology -- but the McCain campaign won't explicitly say it disagrees with Day or disavow his remarks. If anything, it shades a bit in the direction of backing Day up.

This is partly because of who Day is -- McCain is reluctant to throw him under the bus. Day isn't just any old surrogate. Day, a Medal of Honor recipient and Swift Boat Vet, is a former fellow POW of McCain who frequently speaks for the candidate on campaign conference calls.

Just to recap: This high-profile McCain surrogate said that "the Muslims" are going to kill us, and the McCain campaign doesn't appear to disagree.

In a sign that Al Gore is gearing up to lend a big assist to Barack Obama, reps for Gore are in the midst of talks with the Obama campaign about a planned high-dollar fundraiser for Obama at the Gore home in Tennessee, according to the Nashville Post.

The preliminary plans also call for a more public event in addition to the private big-money one, the paper says. Gore, who is obviously a huge fundraising draw, already hosted one "unity" fundraiser on behalf of the DNC in May, but this would be his first for Obama since he clinched the nomination.

No comment yet from Gore's office.

Late Update: Gore spokesperson Kalee Krider emails to confirm that the Gores will be hosting an event, though the time and place are undecided.

Wow. Things are so bad for the GOP that even Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, a powerful institutional player from a red state, is taking his re-election fight very seriously.

The evidence? McConnell is already on the air with a negative ad against his opponent, businessman Bruce Lunsford, even though there are still three and a half months until election day:

If Democrats can beat McConnell or even make it close, it will be a very huge deal -- after all, nobody in the Senate has done more than McConnell to keep the Iraq War going against the efforts of the Democratic majority to end it.

Here's a test for the McCain campaign: Will it disavow the incendiary comments that a key McCain surrogate made about Muslims on a campaign conference call?

I've asked the campaign for comment on the fact that the surrogate, fellow POW and former Swift Boat Vet Bud Day, said the following on a campaign call for Florida reporters:

McCain POW bud: Muslims 'going to kill us'

One of John McCain's fellow POW's in Vietnam defended the war in Iraq, saying, "The Muslims have said either we kneel or they're going to kill us.''

In a phone call with reporters arranged by the McCain campaign, Colonel Bud Day added: "I don't intend to kneel and I don't advocate to anybody that we kneel, and John doesn't advocate to anybody that we kneel.''

As Ben Smith archly notes, Day "seems to have cast McCain's foreign policy in stark, religious terms."

Keep in mind that Bud Day isn't any old surrogate. He's a fellow POW and regular fixture on campaign conference calls.

The McCain campaign hasn't yet disavowed the remarks. We'll see what happens.

We now know that the Obama campaign and the DNC had a very good fundraising month for June, banking a total of $92 million in cash on hand -- putting them very close to the $102 million that John McCain and the GOP have between them.

But the more important long-term question is this: Which team is now raising money at a faster rate? What does the overall picture tell us about what things will look like later this fall?

We took a close look at the last six months of numbers, and here's our conclusion: Though the GOP got a big, big head start in fundraising while the Dems were still duking it out, the June fundraising numbers leave little doubt that the Dems are on track to vastly outpace the Republicans -- meaning the Dem team is almost certain to overtake the collective Republican machine in cash on hand by as soon as next month.

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Check out this interesting polling from Pew Research that goes into a fair amount of detail about a much-discussed topic: How Obama is faring with female voters.

On the down side, the poll warns that Obama is faring worse with older women than his two Dem predecessors:

Obama is falling short with some segments of the women vote. In particular, he currently polls considerably worse than his predecessors among all women age 65 or older. About one-third (35%) in this group support Obama, while 42% support McCain. In June 2000, Gore enjoyed a 53%-to-36% lead among women over 65, while in June 2004, Kerry held a more modest 48%-to-43% lead. Currently, nearly one-quarter of women 65 and older (23%) remain undecided about whom to support or say they will vote for another candidate, more than double the share that said that was the case at this point in 2004 (9%) and 2000 (11%).

Even among older women voters who identify themselves as Democrats, significant numbers have yet to declare their support for their party's presumptive nominee. While Obama has a solid 69%-to-12% advantage over McCain among Democratic women over 50, nearly one-in-five (19%) remain undecided or would vote for another candidate. By comparison, just 4% of older Democratic men are undecided.

This isn't terribly surprising, given what happened in the primary. So how big a problem is this? It's unclear. The poll finds that Obama is doing well with women overall: He has a double-digit lead over McCain with them, 51%-37%, which is up considerably from May. And his lead among women is higher than that enjoyed by both Gore and Kerry at the same point in their races.

Still, the older female demographic is certainly one the Obama campaign will be trying to improve among in the weeks and months ahead.

Very early this morning, Bloomberg News cited a report in the German press saying that Obama will not speak at Brandenburg gate in Berlin next week:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will give a speech at the Victory Column in central Berlin, avoiding the Brandenburg Gate after a political spat broke out over plans to speak there, Berliner Zeitung said.

A stage will be set up at the column, a 19th-century fluted structure that lies at the opposite end of a tree-lined boulevard from the Brandenburg Gate, the newspaper said. The campaign will announce the plans for July 24 today, it said.

An appearance at the Victory Column, capped by its trademark gilded angel, will still give the Illinois senator the Brandenburg Gate as a backdrop in the distance.

Politico also linked this morning to a German language version. And here's an English language version from the German press.

If true, it seems like a pretty solid compromise. But the report is un-sourced. The Obama campaign is refusing to confirm it, though it isn't denying it, either. And Berlin City Hall declined to comment to us, too.

We'll let you know if we confirm.

Barack Obama is sinking unprecedented resources into Virginia, and a new poll suggests that every penny will count -- the survey finds that the race in the state is a dead heat.

The new numbers from Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

The internals, however, contain one number that presents serious concern: Obama's unfavorable rating stands at 47% among likely voters suggesting that he may not have much room to grow. By contrast, John McCain's unfavorable rating is at only 36%.

Obama To Meet With Merkel Next Week
Barack Obama will be meeting this coming Thursday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has opposed his campaign's floated idea of speaking at the Brandenburg Gate. However, it appears Obama will still have the chance to personally meet with the conservative head of government when he tours Europe.

McCain In Michigan Today
John McCain is holding a town hall today in Michigan, a state that his campaign is aggressively targeting to turn from blue to red. Given the state's troubled automotive industry, expect McCain to push his gas tax holiday proposals. The Obama campaign has not announced any events for today.

Netroots Nation: Fox News Is Opinion Journalism
The Netroots Nation convention has adopted a fun policy for Fox News: If any Fox correspondents come by, their credentials badges will classify them as opinion journalism. For their part, Fox News isn't sending anybody over.

Freedom's Watch Making Robocalls On Oil Drilling
Right-wing independent group Freedom's Watch has stepped up its robocall campaign against targeted House Democrats. The New Hampshire Union Leader reports that the group is now hitting both of the state's Dem members of Congress, with calls declaring that "The only thing standing between us and billions of barrels of American oil are Democrats in Congress."

House Dem Facing Tougher Race This Fall
CQ has changed their rating for the Pennsylvania seat of Dem Rep. Paul Kanjorski from "Safe Democrat" to only "Leans Democrat." Kanjorski easily won re-election in 2006, but this year he faces a very well-financed challenge from Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta.

Bush Sewage Plant Initiative Makes The Ballot In San Fran
A voter initiative in San Francisco to rename a sewage plant in honor of George W. Bush has received a sufficient number of signatures, and will appear on the November ballot. The idea was hatched by a group calling itself the "Presidential Memorial Commission," which by their own admission was formed over drinks at a bar.

John McCain appears to be upping the ante in his efforts to paint Barack Obama as out of touch with America: He now says Obama is so extreme, he's not ruling out Obama being a socialist.

In an interview with the Kansas City Star, reporter Dave Helling asked McCain whether he would really characterize Obama as an "extremist."

McCain's reply: "That's his voting record. All I said was his voting record -- and that is more to the left than the announced socialist in the United States Senate, Bernie Sanders of Vermont."

Helling then asked if McCain actually thinks Obama is a socialist. "Oh I don't know," McCain answered.

Just in case anybody was hoping for a dream ticket of Barack Obama and Al Gore, you can put that hope to rest: In an interview set to air tomorrow on ABC's Good Morning America, Gore said definitively that he is not interested in the role.

"I've decided to impose a personal term limit of two terms as vice president," Gore said.

A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Barack Obama has moved into a narrow lead in the perennial swing state of Nevada, in line with his campaign's goal of aggressively advertising in Western states.

The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, John McCain was ahead by three points.

The key number: Obama has improved his showing among core Democrats, suggesting that there isn't much in the way of long-lasting damage from the long primary campaign. Obama now has 79% of core Dems, an improvement from 65% two months ago, and is comparable to McCain's 76% of core Republicans.

I just watched the McCain campaign's new "documentary" on Iraq a few times, and while it does find scattered inconsistencies in Obama's positions, it doesn't really draw blood.

Let's dive in.

The first thing the "documentary" tries to do is prove that Obama reversed himself on whether he said the surge would fail. It seizes on an early Obama quote where he said that the surge wouldn't "solve the sectarian violence," and added that "it'll do the reverse." Then it cites him later saying that he'd always said "we would see an improvement in the security situation."

It's true that Obama originally said that it would "do the reverse." So there's a slight inconsistency here. But Obama's broader original point was that the surge wouldn't solve the political problem. His later quote was strictly focused on whether there would be military gains. Whatever slight inconsistency there was is just not really meaningful when looked at in the broader context of his larger arguments.

Let's move to the next set of charges.

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Here it is!

As promised, the McCain camp has now held a press conference in D.C. where they rolled out their new "documentary" called "The Obama Iraq Documentary: Whatever the Politics Demand." Take a look...

Senator Jon Kyl doesn't appear; the MSNBC report I linked to below didn't actually say he would. Kyl actually introduced the vid. My mistake. Apologies.

More in a sec.

Late Update: My take on the "documentary" is right here.

The McCain camp's attacks on Obama over Iraq are really beginning to take on a burlesque quality.

Yesterday senior McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann actually said that Obama was the one who resembled Bush on Iraq, in that both are stubbornly clinging to their views despite reality.

And today the comedy continues. This afternoon, the McCain campaign will release a video attacking Obama on Iraq called "The Obama Iraq Documentary: Whatever the Politics Demand." The McCain "documentary" gives a starring role to Senator Jon Kyl.

But Kyl isn't exactly brimming over with credibility on Iraq: He clung for years to the silly, long-debunked myth that Iraqis went to Niger to acquire yellow cake, repeating it as late as August 2006.

We'll bring you the McCain camp's video as soon as it's available. Stay tuned for all the fun!

Late Update: The video is here, but I was wrong to say Kyl is in it. The MSNBC report I linked to above didn't actually say he would. Kyl actually introduced the vid. My mistake. Apologies.

John McCain might end up having to work really hard to hold on to North Carolina, a new poll suggests, even though this Southern state hasn't voted Dem since Jimmy Carter's win in 1976.

The new numbers from Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 45%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. Other polls have shown a similarly-close race, a surprising development considering that George W. Bush beat John Kerry here by a 56%-44% margin.

One thing that should be noted: North Carolina is on the list of 18 states that the Obama campaign has targeted with their ads so far, and the ads could be making an impact.

Here's an interesting House race that national Dems are watching very closely, because it gives them a shot at picking up an open seat in deep-red territory: The battle over Alabama's Second District.

In a sign of just how much the battlefield has expanded this year, CQ has rated the race as only "Leans Republican," which means it's competitive -- an extraordinary development, because this district voted 66% for President Bush in 2004, and the GOP advantage should be overwhelming.

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Check out the half-page ad that a pro-Hillary group called the Denver Group -- a reference to the location of the Dem convention -- is running in today's edition of CQ (click to enlarge):

The ad demands that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid stop opposing the inclusion of Hillary's name on the ballot, and invokes FDR to make its case.

So what is the " Denver Group," anyway? It's been getting some media attention of late, and CQ had a piece detailing the group last week: It was formed by a pro-Hillary Georgetown University professor named Heidi Li Feldman, and its aim is to lobby for an open convention and for the inclusion of Hillary's name on the ballot. She claims to have raised $100,000 for her efforts.

The group ran an ad in the Chicago Tribune last week. We're not sure what to make of this outfit yet, if anything. If we find out more on the group of interest, we'll let you know.

It looks like national Democratic strategists have concluded that they have a very good shot at knocking off North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole, which would amount to a huge Senate seat pickup in a deep-red state.

The Raleigh News and Observer reports that the DSCC is preparing to throw an enormous sum of cash into the race, reserving several hundred thousand dollars worth of ad time on the CBS affiliate in Raleigh alone. The total ad time reserved in the state could go as high as $6 million, with the ads set to run this fall.

Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole currently has a strong lead in the polls, thanks to a heavy ad blitz Dole unleashed right after the Dem candidate, state senator Kay Hagan, won her primary. Kay Hagan won her own primary. But the Dems think the race will even out in the run-up to the general election, with Barack Obama also targeting the state with his turnout and advertising efforts.

Here's a bit more detail on Obama's $52 million June haul: According to the Obama campaign, some $50 million of this was raised for use in the primary, and $2 million was raised for the general.

Does this matter? Not really.

Campaign finance rules dictate that any money raised for the primary can be spent all the way up until the convention, even if the primary has already been settled. So Obama can spend the $50 million all the way up until the end of August -- not a difficult thing to do.

And as it happens, Obama could also roll over money left over from the $50 million for use in the general if he so chose. TPM's resident numbers-obsessive, Eric Kleefeld, checked in with Federal Election Commission spokesperson Bob Biersack, who confirmed that Obama can roll over that money because he's opted out of public financing and hence is no longer bound only to spend public money on the general.

So the only significance of the primary-general breakdown is that Obama can't spend the $2 million raised for the general until after the convention. And that obviously doesn't matter at all.

Late Update: Commenters are making a good point: The real significance of the $2 million for the general is that it means that all these donors are still there to be tapped for general election money.

GOPers and McCain aides are seizing on the fact that a huge media retinue is planning on following Obama to Europe in order to argue that the press is favoring Obama:

The coverage also feeds into concerns in Mr. McCain's campaign, and among Republicans in general, that the news media are imbalanced in their coverage of the candidates, just as aides to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton felt during the primary season.

"In every campaign, time is a finite resource, so it is unproductive to spend it worrying about the way Obama is covered," said Jill Hazelbaker, a spokeswoman for Mr. McCain. "That being said, it certainly hasn't escaped us that the three network newscasts will originate from stops on Obama's trip."

I don't doubt that Obama gets more coverage than McCain. And maybe that's an imbalance that should be corrected. But come on: The more important issue here is the quality, not the quantity, of the coverage.

Can anyone seriously argue that the national media has been tougher on McCain than on Obama? In very general terms, the national press gave the Mccain camp the narrative they wanted on Obama's non-flip-flop on Iraq, even as it woefully under-covered McCain's Afghanistan reversal.

What's more, McCain's penchant for jokes that tend to be euphemistically termed "off color" has also basically been given a pass by the national media. And one very influential news org hasn't even tried to disguise its absurdly over-the-top McCain fluffing.

It's very hard to generalize about media coverage. That said, that's the general picture. So let's hope that any future GOP complaining is recognized by people in the media for the transparent ref-gaming that it is.

The Democratic National Committee raised $22, 481,194 in June, spokesperson Karen Finney says.

The DNC's cash on hand total $20, 306,056.

That puts the total combined Obama and DNC cash in the bank at over $92 million -- very competitive with the GOP/McCain total of nearly $100 million.

Late Update: Our pal Instaputz has a good point about the faulty media coverage of Obama's fundraising.

Obama: Dems Wouldn't Attack Spouses Like Fox Does With Michelle
In an interview with Glamour magazine, Barack Obama went after Fox News and other right-wing media outlets for attacks on Michelle Obama, saying they "went fairly deliberately at her in a pretty systematic way." Obama added that they "treated her as the candidate in a way that you just rarely see the Democrats try to do against Republicans."

The Obamas In Washington State
Barack Obama will be in Washington state today, an area that he is expected to win this fall. Also, Michelle Obama will be holding a fundraiser for Gov. Christine Gregoire, who is facing a close re-election fight this Fall.

McCain In Missouri Today
John McCain is in Kansas City, Missouri, today, seeking votes in a Democratic area within a pivotal swing state. Missouri has voted for the winner in every election but one over the last 100 years, and the recent polls have been mixed on who is ahead.

Obama Camp, DNC Set Up Funding Agreements With State Parties
The Obama campaign and the DNC have set up a joint fundraising program with 18 state parties -- the same 18 where his ads have been running thus far -- to funnel money specifically for those states for the presidential race as well as down-ticket contests. Take this as further evidence of the degree to which the Obama campaign is seeking to expand the map for this year, instead of letting the race come down to one or two swing states.

House Republicans Not Shelling Out Cash For McCain
The Hill reports this morning that John McCain has had a hard time raising money from House Republicans, with only 32 members donating any money from their own campaign or PAC coffers since McCain became the presumptive nominee. House Republicans say that the campaign hasn't put much effort into soliciting their money, even though there'd probably be plenty to spare from Congressmen holding safe seats.

Solis Doyle: Hillary Was Okay With Me Working For Obama
In an interview with the Associated Press, former Hillary Clinton campaign manager said she had "complicated emotions" about her move to the Obama camp -- and she made sure to check with Hillary in order to make sure her old boss was okay with it. "And she was," Solis Doyle said.

Poll: Americans Conflicted On Gay Marriage
A new Quinnipiac poll finds that only 36% of Americans support gay marriage, with 55% opposed. On the other hand, only 45% say they support a law in their state to ban it, with a 49% plurality opposed to such a law, and they also oppose a constitutional amendment to ban it by a 56%-38% margin.

From an email to supporters from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe:

We have some big news we want to share with you.

Because of your generosity and commitment, we're reporting to the press today that this campaign is in a very strong financial position.

In the month of June, supporters like you helped raise $52 million.

But more impressive than the number is how you did it. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary people contributed to building our campaign for change. Many were first-time donors, giving only what they could afford -- and the average donation was just $68.

Fifty-two million dollars raised with an average donation of $68 is undeniably impressive. Also, by our estimate, this puts Obama on track to achieve his goal of raising $300 million or more, since he needs at least $50 million a month to get there -- and the fundraising very likely will pick up even more when the conventions roll around.

Plouffe also warned, however, that Obama and the Dems still face a cash disadvantage: He and the Democratic National Committee have a combined $72 million on hand, he said, while the GOP and the Republican National Committee finished June with nearly $100 million.

Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton says there's an error in Plouffe's email: It turns out the campaign on its own has $72 million on hand. The DNC totals should be released today.

Late Late Update: More detail on Obama's haul right here.

Senator Evan Bayh's appearance today with Barack Obama at the "21st Century Threats" summit has stirred a lot of talk in the press about the possibility of him being on Obama's Veep short-list.

But we're not sure that's such a viable idea. That's because in 2003, Bayh was an honorary co-chair of the neocon pro-war Committee for the Liberation of Iraq -- a group he joined along with none other than John McCain and Joe Lieberman, according to a press release from during the run-up to the invasion.

Check this out, from the group's press release on February 14th, 2003 (via Nexis):

The Committee for the Liberation of Iraq (CLI) is pleased to welcome Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) as an Honorary Co-Chairman. Bayh becomes the third U.S. Senator to join the committee after Sens. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) announced their participation on January 28.

The Committee is a neo-con group that was formed to propagandize the country into war. It boasted such illustrious neocon members as Bill Kristol, former CIA director James Woolsey, and even McCain senior foreign policy adviser and Chalabi-bamboozler Randy Scheunemann, whom Josh has been blogging about.

Bayh would, to put it very charitably, muddle Obama's message. It's true that Bayh was said to have subsequently removed himself from the group. But Obama's campaign is partly about -- and rightly so -- the judgment he made, and others didn't, in the run-up to the invasion.

The McCain campaign and the Repubs would have a grand time mocking the choice. Indeed, the McCain camp is already trying to make an issue of Bayh's past.

"We know Obama isn't interested in the facts on the ground in Iraq, but one would think he'd at least be interested in the facts about those rumored to be at the top of his VP list.," McCain spokesperson Michael Goldfarb emailed us about Bayh. The Obama camp didn't immediately comment.

"A lot has changed since 2003," Bayh communications director Eric Kleiman told TPM's Eric Kleefeld. "And Senator Bayh has acknowledged if we knew then what we know now, he wouldn't have cast that vote."

Not sure that'll be enough.

There's been yet another bizarre turn in the GOP's eternal quest to find a candidate for the key House seat in New York's 13th district, which is expected to be one of this fall's most hotly-contested races.

The latest: The GOP has finally found someone to make the race, former Assemblyman Robert Straniere -- but one of the state's most prominent Republicans is vowing to destroy his candidacy!

"I'm going to do everything in my power to stop him," said former Rep. Guy Molinari, who used to represent the area and is one of the biggest GOP names in New York, in an interview with Election Central. "And if that means defeating him and a Democrat wins, that's okay, too. I would rather have someone that's honest and would do what's right for the country, than support him."

"He lies about everything," Molinari later added. "How do you pick a man like that to go to Congress?"

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The New York Times's Adam Nagourney has sent me a long and detailed response to the Obama campaign's complaint that his story today on the paper's big poll on race omitted key info that would have been more favorable to Obama.

While Nagourney says he is "comfortable" with the story, he does concede that he left out one key data point about Michelle Obama that he should have included. He allows that headline was imperfect, in that it implied some sort of failure on Obama's point to close the racial divide:

I do think there is room for discussion about the headline -- "Poll Finds Obama Candidacy Isn't Closing Divide on Race." The point of the story is that black respondents apparently do not see the fact of Mr. Obama's candidacy as evidence of significant improvement in race relations. The story does not suggest that there is some onus on Mr. Obama himself to be closing this divide.

Nagourney also conceded that he may have erred in omitting key info about the high percentage of whites that don't have any opinion of Michelle:

I also, on a smaller matter -- and the one matter the Obama campaign did raise with me -- should have included, in saying that 20 percent of white voters had a favorable view of Michelle Obama, the fact that 72 percent either have no opinion about Mrs. Obama or hadn't heard enough about her, to avoid any suggestion that 80 percent had an unfavorable view of her.

Nagourney's full response after the jump.

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Here's another real sign that the Obama campaign is dead serious about making a real play for Virginia.

The Obama campaign plans to open 20 new field offices in the state -- and at least five of them are in very red areas where Dems have traditionally feared to tread, Obama's Virginia director of communications, Kevin Griffis, confirms to me.

The Obama team is setting up shop in Winchester and Bristol, both of which are in areas that voted for Bush in 2004 by at least 25 points. Camp Obama is also adding an office in Harrisonburg, which went for Bush by 13 and is in the reliably-red Shenandoah Valley.

There will also be a new office in Castlewood, which is in the coalfields near West Virginia and Kentucky and went for Bush by eight, and in Martinsville, whose surrounding county went for Bush by 13 points.

Obama's Virginia campaign director, Mitch Stewart, says he's hoping to turn the network of field offices into the foundation of an all-out bottom-up effort in the state. "The new offices represent the frame upon which our neighbor-to-neighbor, grassroots campaign will be built," Stewart says.

It's getting interesting.

The McCain campaign is taking their effort to distance their candidate from the unpopular President Bush to a whole new level: McCain's advisers are now openly attacking Bush on Iraq -- and not only that, they're also saying that Barack Obama is the one who is like Bush on the war!

On a conference call just now with reporters, McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann compared Barack Obama's insistence on a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq to Bush's insistence that we were winning even as things went badly for years.

"I think the American people have had enough of inflexibility and stubbornness in national security policy," Scheunemann said. When asked later by the Huffington Post's Sam Stein whether the campaign was disparaging President Bush, Scheunemann dug in: "We cannot afford to replace one administration that refused for too long to acknowledge failure in Iraq with a candidate that refuses to acknowledge success in Iraq."

Forget "McSame." The candidate who would really continue Bush's policies is "BushBama."

Obama goes up with his second national security ad in two days, a spot that highlights our changing security imperatives in a way designed to dovetail with today's "21st Century Threats" summit...

There's no mention of Iraq in the ad, just as in yesterday's spot. But the ad underscores the intensity and seriousness of purpose of the Obama camp's push on national security in advance of his tour abroad next week.

"New leadership, for a changing world," says the ad, putting Obama's change message in a national security context in hopes of defusing attacks on his foreign policy readiness.

Oh, dear. You know things have really gotten out of hand with the GOP myth that China is drilling for oil off American shores when a Republican Senator pushes it, only to be called out on it by a Fox News host.

The latest hawker of this tall tale: Senator Pete Domenici, who appeared on the Fox Business Network to promote offshore drilling. He repeated not one but two GOP myths: That China is drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, and that Hurricane Katrina did not cause any oil spills:

But this is the funny part. The bogus China-Cuba oil myth is now so discredited that even Fox won't stand for it! As Think Progress noted, Fox Business host Elizabeth MacDonald repeatedly tried to correct Domenici, even as the Senator dug in and refused to concede he'd said something that's entirely fictional.

A fun footnote: Domenici announced his retirement long ago, and the seat is widely expected to go the Dems. So he doesn't really have any personal stake in pushing the myth -- leaving open the possibility that he actually believes it.

Vets for Freedom, the pro-war third party group that's vowed to spend huge sums on ads pushing for "victory" in Iraq, goes up with a new ad insisting that the surge has worked and that Dems have their heads in the sand about it...

The ad will air in multiple markets in the battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico.

The ad reflects the GOP's strategy of focusing the discussion of the Iraq War on nothing but the narrow question of whether the surge has produced military gains -- a strategy McCain has adopted. Intriguingly, the only mention of whether those gains have also achieved their stated goal of facilitating political reconciliation is this: "The Iraqi government grows stronger each day."

No mention of the fact that Iraqi government officials have also said they won't accept any security deal with the United States without specific withdrawal dates.

With polls showing that John McCain holds a big lead on foreign policy readiness, and with McCain constantly arguing that Obama would surrender in the war on terror, one of Obama's chief political challenges is to drive home the message that his national security policies constitute going on offense against global dangers.

Today Obama is trying to do just that, convening a "21st Century Threats" summit in Indiana with potential running mates Evan Bayh and Sam Nunn, as well as a bunch of foreign policy experts. Obama's speech -- part of his ongoing national security tour leading up to his visit abroad next week -- is underway.

According to Obama's prepared remarks, he'll make the case today that pulling out of Iraq and refocusing our resources in a wholly new way constitutes a real offensive against terrorism.

"It's time to update our national security strategy to stay one step ahead of the terrorists -- to see clearly the emerging threats of our young century, and to take action to make the American people more safe and secure," Obama will say. "Today, we will focus on nuclear, biological, and cyber threats -- three 21st century threats that have been neglected for the last eight years."

Obama will argue that we need to do more to secure the 50 tons of highly enriched uranium that's poorly secured around the world, and will also argue that we need to make eliminating all nukes a central policy goal. He'll also argue for the development of new technology to deal with bio-terror.

It's worth noting once again that Obama is staking his candidacy on the rather audacious belief that he can change, through persuasion, the way national security is discussed in this country -- that Dems don't have to cede this turf to the GOP.

Full prepared remarks after the jump.

Late Update: Steve Benen adds some choice thoughts, and much more context.

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Another national poll this week has found Obama with a solid lead over McCain, suggesting that the race isn't necessarily tightening, as several polls late last week found.

The new numbers from Zogby: Obama 47%, McCain 40%, beyond the ±3.1% margin of error. This is on top of the CBS/NYT and ABC/WaPo polls, which respectively gave Obama a six-point and eight-point lead.

The internals also have a very surprising, and not entirely believable, number: Obama leads among Hispanics by an astonishing 71%-19% margin.

Late Update: Make that four polls, with the Quinnipiac survey giving Obama a nine-point lead.

Did the FISA cave-in cause Congress' approval numbers to drop even lower than they were before?

We can't promise that it's because of FISA, but the new Gallup poll now has Congress at its lowest approval rating ever in the firm's 34 years of tracking this stat: Approve 14%, Disapprove 75%.

And get this: The poll, like several others before it, also finds that the group now most likely to approve of the Democratically-controlled Congress is Republicans, at 19% approval. Only 11% of Democrats and 14% of independents approve.

With accomplishments like the FISA cave and unconditional war funding, what's not to like about Congress if you're a Republican?

MoveOn goes up with a new ad attacking John McCain for opposing a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq:

The spot says that Americans and Iraqis want this thing to end, while McCain would continue to spend "hundreds of billions" to keep our troops in Iraq for "years and years."

MoveOn will spend $100,000 to run the air on national cable, suggesting that the target audience is largely an insider one.

The Obama campaign is taking issue with The New York Times this morning over the paper's front-page piece today on the Times poll released last night, critiquing the story for omitting a great deal of the paper's own poll polling data that suggests a different conclusion than the story reached.

The Obama campaign sent over a detailed critique of the story, which concludes from the poll that Obama isn't closing the divide on race. The story's lead reporter was the paper's top political writer, Adam Nagourney.

"The NYT story about their poll ignores multiple and significant pieces of data that actually indicate a trend much different from that which the story suggests," the critique reads. It goes on to list "some straightforward points from their data that are omitted from the story."...

a) More white voters say Obama cares about people like them, than say the same thing about McCain by 31 to 23

b) On the essential issue in this campaign - bringing about change in Washington - Among white voters, Obama is seen as the change agent by 52% to 30%

c) Obama's 31% favorable rating among white voters is virtually identical to McCain's, which is at 34%.

d) By a 2 to 1 margin over McCain, white voters are more likely to say that Obama would improve America's image in the world

e) "Racial dissension" around Mrs. Obama's 24% favorable rating among whites is an extremely odd description given that Mrs. McCain's favorable rating among white voters is 20%.

f) Enthusiasm for Obama's candidacy is roughly 2.5 times higher among white voters than is enthusiasm for McCain's.

g) Obama is winning by 6 points against McCain and the gap among white voters is only -9 --- a margin smaller than independent expert on voting patterns, Ruy Texiera, said would give Obama a " solid win."

h) though there is a six-point margin of error among black voters the NYT describes the 7-point change in black voters' views that whites had a better chance of getting ahead as slightly higher than 8 years ago. Given that the Times reports horserace questions as statistically even when the margin falls within the margin, it seems that this shift from seven years ago among black voters is well within the margin of error.

More on this soon.

Late Update: Nagourney responds.

Planned Parenthood Ad Hits McCain On Birth Control
Planned Parenthood Action Fund is launching this new ad against John McCain in the swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin, plus the D.C. media market. The ad bluntly tells women voters that they can't trust John McCain on the issue of birth control, playing back the video from when McCain couldn't answer a question about requiring insurance companies to cover it:

Obama Discussing National Security In Deep-Red Indiana
Barack Obama is spending today in Indiana, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964 but where a recent SurveyUSA poll gave him an improbable one-point lead. He will be joined at Purdue University by Senator Evan Bayh and former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, both viewed in the press as potential running mates, for a "Summit on Confronting 21st Century Threats."

McCain Pitching School Vouchers To The NAACP
John McCain will be speaking today to the NAACP, a venue where Republicans haven't done well and where Barack Obama was already very well received with his own speech. McCain will use this as an opportunity to reach out to African-American voters on education reform: "If I am elected president, school choice for all who want it, an expansion of Opportunity Scholarships, and alternative certification for teachers will all be part of a serious agenda of education reform."

Poll: Obama Ahead, Both Candidates Are Flip-Floppers
The new CBS/New York Times poll gives Barack Obama a 45%-39% lead over John McCain among registered voters, a margin unchanged from the 48%-42% lead he had a month ago. Meanwhile, both candidates have come to be viewed as flip-floppers: Barack Obama is seen as having changed his views in order to get elected by 56% of voters, and 51% say the same thing about John McCain.

McCain Cites "Czechoslovakia" Again
For the second time in two days, John McCain yesterday discussed his foreign policy concerns by referring to Czechoslovakia -- a country that hasn't existed for 15 years. On the bright side, he did at least refer to Russia's interactions with Czechoslovakia, and not the Soviet Union.

Pro-War Group Getting Involved In Senate Races
Freedom's Watch, the right-wing 501(c)(4) group that has set out to further a pro-Iraq War agenda, is now targeting Senate races under the direction of longtime GOP operative Tony Feather. On the one hand, their intervention into Senate races will be a welcome assist to the under-funded NRSC -- but on the other hand, their record in special elections this past cycle was hardly a success, with the GOP losing two deep-red seats in the South.

Al Franken Gets Long-shot Primary Challenger
Trial lawyer Priscilla Lord Faris, scion of a prominent Minnesota Democratic family, has announced that she will run in the September primary for Senate against Al Franken, telling Election Central that his campaign is "floundering" and something must be done. A Minnesota Dem source was highly skeptical that Faris has the time to build up any sufficient organization or name recognition that would pose a serious threat.

A new set of polls from the Carolinas show that both of these states could be close this Fall, despite the fact that neither has voted Democratic since Jimmy Carter was the South's favorite son in 1976.

The new North Carolina poll from SurveyUSA: McCain 50%, Obama 45%, with a ±3.8% margin of error.

And here's Public Policy Polling's (D) survey of the much more conservative South Carolina: McCain 45%, Obama 39%, and Bob Barr 5%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. The X-factor here is Barr, as much of his vote would presumably have gone to McCain in a two-way race.

New Washington Post/ABC News numbers have mixed news for Barack Obama. On the one hand, he holds a healthy national lead of eight points among registered voters, besting McCain 50%-42%.

On the other hand, the poll also shows that McCain holds substantial advantages on key foreign policy readiness questions, suggesting that the stakes of today's Iraq speech, and Obama's pending trip abroad, are extremely high for his presidential hopes.

For instance, the poll finds that McCain has a huge lead (63%-26%) on the question of who has a better knowledge of world affairs.

And McCain also holds a sizable lead (50%-41%) on who is more trusted to handle a major crisis.

Just for the fun of it, we went back and took a look at Bill Clinton's numbers against President George H.W. Bush on foreign policy readiness at around the same time during the 1992 campaign. And as it turns out, Bush had an enormous advantage in a Harris poll, which found that Bush was seen as more likely to be effective in foreign policy by a similarly huge margin of 64%-28%.

And Bush had come off of a successful and popular war, while McCain is defending and promising to continue one whose success is, shall we say, not yet assured -- and is also far less popular. For the history buffs out there.

The rest of (today's) poll is right here.

With the candidates dueling over Iraq today, what are the polls telling us about where the public is on the war?

The latest round of polls on Iraq adds up to a clear message: The public widely believes the war was a mistake from the start. Nonetheless, the polls do show that the public is more divided over what to do going forward than in the past.

There's a reason for this: The polling on what to do next depends heavily on how the question is asked.

The reason this is important is that numbers showing more public support for staying in Iraq -- based on imperfect questioning -- could lead to more punditry saying that McCain is on the offensive on the issue, which could in turn affect public opinion.

Our snapshot of current public opinion on Iraq after the jump.

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Barack Obama has just given a lengthy interview to PBS' Gwen Ifill about his views on Iraq, and according to advance excerpts, he elaborated on his desire to hear input from the commanders on how to withdraw responsibly.

Obama's suggestion that he wants to confer with commanders over withdrawal has been spun by John McCain and the GOP -- with the complicity of some in the national media -- as proof that he's softened on having a withdrawal timetable.

But in the interview, Obama goes into a bit more detail than I've seen before about what he wants to discuss with the commanders -- in particular, how to handle the logistics of leaving a residual force behind. Asked what he means by "residual force," Obama said...

SEN. OBAMA: Well, this is one of the things I want to discuss when I travel there. And I think that it's important to have the commanders on the ground help to shape what is going to be necessary for limited missions that have been defined by the president, the commander in chief.

The missions that I've called for: as you said, protecting diplomatic forces and civilians, U.S. civilians or foreign civilians in Iraq, making sure that we are protecting our bases, training Iraqi forces, if, as long as we are [sure] of the fact that we are not training them to engage in sectarian war but rather training them for the integrated force structures that are needed to protect them, and to have a counterinsurgency force that can act swiftly if you start seeing the reemergence of al Qaeda in Iraq.

Those would be the limited missions that they would be carrying out. I think we need to make sure that the commanders have the resources they need in order to be able to deal with those issues.

The interview will air tonight at 7:00 E.T. More excerpts after the jump.

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Check out this odd little line buried in John McCain's Iraq speech today:

"I know how to win wars."

As a reader asks in genuine wonderment, Which wars did McCain win again?

Also, from the end of the speech:

"Understand this: When I am commander -in-chief, there will be nowhere the terrorists can run, and nowhere they can hide."

Via HuffPo. One would have imagined that the complete failure of Bush's "Mission Accomplished" swagger would have persuaded the GOP to move beyond this sort of schlock-swinging. But one would be wrong, apparently.

On the other hand, McCain probably thinks that his war service has endowed him with the capacity to schlock-swing in a way Dubya never could.

Now here's a funny campaign blooper. As spotted the other day by the Senate Guru blog, GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole's campaign had to go back and re-edit a campaign ad a few weeks ago, after it turned out that a shot of a fighter plane wasn't an American aircraft.

It turned out that the Republican ad was displaying -- the horror! -- a French plane!

Here's the original, with the French Super Etendard plane:

The edited version, subbing in a U.S. Air Force plan, is after the jump.

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So does John McCain believe that gays should be forbidden to adopt children, or not?

In his interview this past weekend with the New York Times, McCain agreed with President Bush's stance against gay adoption, even if the alternative is that children are kept in the foster care system.

But now the McCain camp is backing off that assertion, declaring that in fact he believes states should make the decision and that he "could have been clearer in the interview."

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Perhaps not surprisingly, the first main theme in John McCain's Iraq speech today, which just concluded in New Mexico, was that he was right about the surge, and Obama was wrong.

Key quote:

Today we know Senator Obama was wrong. The surge has succeeded. And because of its success, the next President will inherit a situation in Iraq in which America's enemies are on the run, and our soldiers are beginning to come home.

Senator Obama is departing soon on a trip abroad that will include a fact-finding mission to Iraq and Afghanistan. And I note that he is speaking today about his plans for Iraq and Afghanistan before he has even left, before he has talked to General Petraeus, before he has seen the progress in Iraq, and before he has set foot in Afghanistan for the first time. In my experience, fact-finding missions usually work best the other way around: first you assess the facts on the ground, then you present a new strategy.

McCain needs to narrow the discussion about who has had better judgment on the war into an argument about the surge, rather than one about the broader intellectual failures -- which McCain shared -- that got us into this mess in the first place. Obama, by contrast, is insisting on a broader discussion and wants McCain to own his misjudgments about the bigger question of whether to invade at all.

Adding to what Ben Smith says here, both candidates are asking voters to judge their ability to decide what the right way forward by looking at their past decisions.

But the inescapable fact is this: On the biggest and most consequential decision, Obama got it right, and McCain got it wrong. The only question is whether McCain's efforts to focus the discussion on who was right about the surge will succeed in obscuring this.

Separately, we need to avoid the misconception that McCain represents a complete continuation of Bush's policies. After all, in the speech, McCain proposed creating a second war czar to handle Afghanistan. Right now, there's only one, for both countries.

McCain's full speech after the jump.

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Now that Barack Obama has just wrapped up his big Iraq speech, it's worth noting how big a gamble he's taken at key moments during this race -- by insisting on elevating the discussion to a higher plane than the ordinary tit-for-tat of campaigns.

When Obama was under fire for Reverend Wright, Obama gave a speech in which he asked his audience to think bigger, to rise above the narrow, gaffe-driven debate about Wright and have a real and meaningful discussion about the larger social and historical forces at play.

Now Obama has again done something very similar on Iraq.

John McCain wants the debate between the two men about Iraq to be framed around three narrow assertions: One, he was right about the surge, which has succeeded. Two, that success proves that we can "win" with "honor," rather than "surrender." And three, Obama has "flip-flopped" because he can't guarantee that withdrawal from Iraq won't take 30 seconds longer than his proposed 16 months.

Today, Obama insisted on a much broader framing of the discussion, in multiple ways.

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Obama's big Iraq speech in Washington, D.C., has just started. The full text of the speech is after the jump.

It would be hard to overstate how high the stakes are here. Video and more soon.

Late Update: Here's video of what we think are the key moments...

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A poll out the other day gave hope to national Dems, because it seemed to suggest that Al Franken had taken an improbable lead over GOP incumbent Senator Norm Coleman. But not so fast: Another survey out finds the opposite result.

The numbers from SurveyUSA: Coleman 52%, Franken 39%, not significantly changed since a month ago. Somewhat counterintuitively, the poll's internals show Coleman ahead 58%-31% among voters age 18-34.

Yesterday's Rasmussen poll gave Franken a two-point lead, after trailing 48%-45% a month ago.

Both pollsters have good reputations, so it's really not clear what the status quo is at this point -- but a one-time comedian might just have a real shot at knocking off a GOP incumbent in a real upset.

Barack Obama goes up on the air with a new national security ad that doesn't mention Iraq but seems timed to coincide with his big Iraq speech today laying out his fundamental foreign policy differences with John McCain...

The ad says the most serious threat we face is nukes falling into the hands of terrorists, stresses his bipartisan work on that problem, and vows to "restore America's leadership in the world."

A list of states where the ad is running and a transcript of the spot are after the jump.

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Oh, man -- this one's really cringe-worthy. You really have to watch this priceless video of South Carolina GOP governor Mark Sanford pulling a homina homina homina when asked by CNN's Wolf Blitzer to cite any differences between McCain and Bush on the economy. The man is totally stumped...

South Carolina's The State newspaper reports this morning that Sanford may have just seen his Veep chances slide down the same drain that claimed Phil "nation of whiners" Gramm the other day.

National reporters are just beginning to notice the gaffe, and expect national Dems to make major hay with this today. For more on this, check out what TPM's Ben Craw had to say over on his great new TPMtv blog.

Late Update: It turns out this already got a ton of attention on Sunday. I was taking a rare day off-line. Apologies.

This news broke late yesterday, but people seem to have missed the domestic political implications of this: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plans to attend the United Nations General Assembly in September.

In case you didn't notice, that will come right in the thick of the presidential campaign. And in a sign of what's likely to come during his visit, the McCain campaign is already hitting Obama over it this morning.

In an interview with Iranian state television, Ahmadinejad said that he will speak at the U.N. meeting about "ruling the world based on justice," adding that "any American government should understand that they should stop bullying and try to have interaction with Iran."

Talk like this -- and his expected kind and conciliatory words about Israel (not) -- is likely to set off a furious skirmish between McCain and Obama over their differences on Iran, right when the presidential race is at its hottest.

Indeed, this morning, the McCain campaign is quickly moving to use the scheduled visit to disparage Obama's support for negotiating with hostile foreign leaders. McCain campaign Internet guru Patrick Hynes emails over this:

Perhaps he and Senator Obama can finally have that heart to heart.

Get ready for a lot more like this.

Poll: Obama Ahead By Nine Points, But Iraq Verdict Unclear
The new Quinnipiac poll gives Barack Obama a 50%-41% lead over John McCain among likely voters, beyond the ±2.4% margin of error. But the poll has mixed news on Iraq: Respondents say by a 59%-34% margin that the war was the wrong thing to do, but on the other hand they say 51%-43% that troops should be kept there without a fixed date for withdrawal.

Obama To Give Speech This Morning On Iraq And Security
Barack Obama will be in Washington this morning, where he will give a major speech on Iraq scheduled for 10:45 a.m. Obama will condemn the war as a distraction from the true fight against Al Qaeda, according to pre-released excerpts, putting the national-security issue right back at John McCain: "It is unacceptable that almost seven years after nearly 3,000 Americans were killed on our soil, the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 are still at large."

McCain In New Mexico Today, Hitting Obama On Security
John McCain will be campaigning today in the swing state of New Mexico, where he will rebut Obama's national security speech. "And I note that he is speaking today about his plans for Iraq and Afghanistan before he has even left, before he has talked to General Petraeus, before he has seen the progress in Iraq, and before he has set foot in Afghanistan for the first time," McCain will say, according to a pre-released excerpt.

Another Poll Has Mixed News On Iraq
The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows that the public is evenly divided on the question of what do in Iraq, with 50% wanting a timetable for withdrawal and 49% opposed. John McCain has a 47%-45% lead over Barack Obama on who is trusted more to handle the situation, within the ±3% margin of error.

NYT: Comedians Having A Tough Time With Obama
In the wake of the flap surrounding the New Yorker cover, the New York Times explores how comedians have had problems finding an angle to go after Barack Obama. One problem is he is simply too earnest and gaffe-free to be easily lampooned, but an executive producer for David Letterman pointed to another factor: "Anything that has even a whiff of being racist, no one is going to laugh."

Poll: The Only Vulnerable Dem Senator Leads Her Opponent
In a further sign of how barren the map is this year for Senate Republicans, a new Rasmussen poll of Louisiana gives Senator Mary Landrieu -- probably the only vulnerable Democrat this cycle -- a 51%-45% lead over Republican candidate John Kennedy with a ±4.5% margin of error. This is despite the fact that John McCain has a 56%-37% lead over Barack Obama here, meaning that Landrieu is able to get a very high number of ticket-splitters.

Barack Obama may be making major news this morning with a big speech on Iraq in Washington, D.C., and excerpts from the speech have just been released by his campaign.

The speech will be closely watched at least in part what he says about his proposed 16-month timetable. The just-released excerpts contain no mention of the specific timetable, so we'll have to wait until he delivers the speech to see what -- if anything -- he intends to say about it.

In the excerpts, however, Obama does re-commit himself to a broader foreign policy vision that is a clean break with that of George Bush and John McCain, both of whom say they see an extended presence in Iraq as central to American national security. Obama, by contrast, argues in the speech that this extended presence is harmful to our security and endangers our future in multiple ways. At the same time, he presses his case for more aggressive engagement in Afghanistan. Key excerpt:

This war diminishes our security, our standing in the world, our military, our economy, and the resources that we need to confront the challenges of the 21st century. By any measure, our single-minded and open-ended focus on Iraq is not a sound strategy for keeping America safe...

"As President, I will pursue a tough, smart and principled national security strategy - one that recognizes that we have interests not just in Baghdad, but in Kandahar and Karachi, in Tokyo and London, in Beijing and Berlin. I will focus this strategy on five goals essential to making America safer: ending the war in Iraq responsibly; finishing the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban; securing all nuclear weapons and materials from terrorists and rogue states; achieving true energy security; and rebuilding our alliances to meet the challenges of the 21st century."

Full excerpts after the jump.

Late Update: I should reiterate that Obama did re-commit himself to the 16-month timetable in his New York Times Op ed yesterday.

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Former Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura announced tonight on Larry King Live that he is not running for Senate, citing a desire to spare his family from the media scrutiny that would come along with a return to politics.

This race is a top target for Democrats, as incumbent Republican Norm Coleman will have to seek re-election in a state that is likely to vote for Barack Obama for president by a decent margin. Had Ventura entered, it's unclear whether he would have taken more votes from the Democratic column or the Repubican one -- but it sure would have things more confusing.

Meanwhile, Al Franken got some good news tonight in a new Rasmussen poll: He has a slim 44%-42% lead over Coleman, within the ±4.5% margin of error, after Coleman had led 48%-45% a month ago.

Coleman is certainly vulnerable with numbers like these, but Franken has generally had problems in making the transition from comedian to politician. However, Franken might be starting to turn the situation around.

There's something of a history-making event set for tonight: The first African American Democratic Presidential nominee is set to address the NAACP at 8 P.M., at the group's 99th annual convention.

According to the prepared remarks, Obama reaches for a properly humble tone, linking the Civil Rights movement both to the success of his own candidacy and to his own biography:

It is because of them; and all those whose names never made it into the history books -- those men and women, young and old, black, brown and white, clear-eyed and straight-backed, who refused to settle for the world as it is; who had the courage to remake the world as it should be -- that I stand before you tonight as the Democratic nominee for President of the United States of America.

And if I have the privilege of serving as your next President, I will stand up for you the same way that earlier generations of Americans stood up for me -- by fighting to ensure that every single one of us has the chance to make it if we try.

The idea that earlier generations "stood up for me" is a nifty Obama-esque (Obamanian?) rhetorical flourish. Obama also notes that the Civil Rights movement inspired him to go into community organizing in Chicago when he could have made more money in other fields.

But Obama also uses the occasion to reiterate his refusal to back away from his earlier demand that fathers exercise more responsibility in their children's lives, comments which provoked the Jesse Jackson outburst:

Now, I know some say I've been too tough on folks about this responsibility stuff. But I'm not going to stop talking about it. Because I believe that in the end, it doesn't matter how much money we invest in our communities, or how many 10-point plans we propose, or how many government programs we launch - none of it will make any difference if we don't seize more responsibility in our own lives.

Full text after the jump.

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Here's something to keep on eye tonight: Jesse Ventura will be appearing on Larry King Live, where he'll announce whether or not he's running for Senate in Minnesota as an independent.

If he is running, it would seriously complicate an already strange race, where Republican Norm Coleman has been leading Al Franken in this blue state. It's not clear whether Ventura's macho image and essentially libertarian platform -- he's opposed to heavy government spending, is socially laissez-faire, and has said he would run as an expressly anti-war candidate -- would draw more votes from Coleman or Franken.

A Minnesota Democratic source told Election Central that nobody really knows what to expect from Ventura. "Our suspicion remains that the governor is, unless he makes clear otherwise, not in fact in the race," the source said. "But let's wait and see."

Late Update: Ventura has announced that he's not running.

Wow. A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Barack Obama could be putting in play the very red state of South Dakota, which hasn't voted Democratic for president since the 1964 Lyndon Johnson landslide.

The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 43%. Compare this to 2004, when George W. Bush beat John Kerry by a 60%-39% margin. The last Rasmussen poll here was four months ago, and it had McCain ahead 48%-38%.

The kicker: South Dakota isn't on the list of 18 states that the Obama camp has been targeting with advertising. But with numbers like these, that list might end up growing any day now.

It looks like we may be on the verge of finding out whether Barack Obama will opt to deliver his July 24th speech before Berlin's historic Brandenburg Gate, which would associate Obama with JFK and Ronald Reagan and add a great deal of historical resonance.

Der Spiegel reports today that "a resolution to the issue is imminent," adding that members of Obama's advance team on the speech are "expected to arrive in Berlin early this week to iron out the logistical details" for the speech.

Had Obama chosen the Gate, it would have sent a powerful symbolic message to Europe about his intention to restore America's global image and credibility. But Obama has said that he doesn't want the venue to be a distraction from the speech itself. The controversy over the Gate has been nothing if not a distraction, so it's hard to see how this speech will end up being made there.

Indeed, Der Spiegel floats several far more likely venues:

But it is far more probable that Obama will appear at a more neutral location -- in front of the former West Berlin city hall in the Schöneberg district (where Kennedy gave his famous "Ich bin ein Berliner" speech), Tempelhof Airport, in front of the Reichstag (home to Germany's parliament) or at picturesque Gendarmenmarkt Square.

He'll have plenty of opportunities at any of those locations for photo ops of cheering Europeans that he can then use for his campaign at home to show that he has support on the continent.

Photo-ops of cheering Europeans? Der Spiegel isn't exactly displaying the keenest grasp of American politics there, but whatever. We'll keep you posted.

A new survey of Colorado by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Barack obama with a narrow lead in this swing state, which has been trending from red to blue very quickly in the last few years.

The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 43%, with a margin of error of ±3%. Other recent polls have also shown Obama with a narrow lead in this state.

In this poll, McCain has a 46%-45% lead among white voters, but Obama dominates 58%-34% with Hispanics, a demographic where some had doubted he'd do well. The key to watch for in Colorado will be what percentage of the state's voters will be Hispanics. "The higher that number is, the more likely it will be that Barack Obama is victorious," the pollster concludes.

Also, some good news for Dems in the Senate race: Democratic candidate Mark Udall leads Republican Bob Schaffer by a 47%-39% margin, in the race for this open GOP-held seat.

At his press avail today, John McCain referenced current relations between Russia and, um, a non-existent country.

From a transcript...

"I was concerned about a couple of steps that the Russian government took in the last several days. One was reducing the energy supplies to Czechoslovakia. Apparently that is in reaction to the Czech's agreement with us concerning missile defense, and again some of the Russian now announcement they are now retargeting new targets, something they abandoned at the end of the Cold War, is also a concern."

Czechoslovakia, of course, hasn't existed in over 15 years. Not the hugest deal, of course, but McCain keeps making this mistake.

Around three months ago, McCain told Don Imus that he would "work closely with Czechoslovakia and Poland and other countries" to install the European Missile Defense System in Poland, according to the Democratic National Committee. (The slip-up was referenced elsewhere, too.)

And during a GOP debate in October 2007, McCain said: "The first thing I would do is make sure that we have a missile defense system in place in Czechoslovakia and Poland, and I don't care what his objections are to it."

We're nitpicking a bit here. But McCain is running on his supposed foreign policy superiority. And the GOP and McCain would hit Obama as a foreign policy greenhorn based on less than this.

There was a striking moment just now on an Obama campaign conference call with reporters: Top Obama supporter Joe Biden said that all the military commanders he talks to privately say they want Barack Obama to make the trip to Iraq that's been ridiculed by the McCain camp.

"One thing I can tell you for certain from recent trips is commanders in the field...all want to see Barack Obama," Biden said, in a reference to Obama's planned trip.

"They know the policy that's being pursued now is one that baffles them," Biden said, stressing that the commanders know, as Obama does, that current troop levels in Iraq can't be sustained and that more resources need to be freed up for Afghanistan.

Biden also came very close to suggesting that the commanders were not favorably disposed towards McCain: "They don't get this administration and they surely don't get John McCain right now."

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Barack Obama has secured a decent-sized lead in Michigan, a must-win swing state where he'd previously been a lot weaker, a new Rasmussen poll suggests.

The numbers: Obama 47%, McCain 39%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. A month ago, Obama had taken a small lead of 45%-42%, just as he'd sewn up the Democratic nomination.

Obama had stayed away from the state until very late in the game, due to the controversies surrounding their rogue primaries, but he appears to have overcome any lingering bitterness surrounding the matter that might have been out there.

As noted below, the McCain campaign is now arguing that Obama and the Democrats want to lose in Iraq precisely because it will help them politically.

This is tantamount to an accusation of treason. What will the national press do with this?

That aside, we thought it worthwhile to recall that McCain himself has actually said something along the lines of what Dems are being accused of thinking. During the 2004 elections, McCain said the following about the recent surfacing of a Bin Laden tape...

"Bin Laden may have just given us a little boost. Amazing, huh?"

McCain also said that the video is "helpful to President Bush because it puts the focus on the war on terrorism."

The McCain campaign is merely accusing Obama and Dems of wanting American deaths because it will help them politically. McCain, meanwhile, actually said that the specter of a lethal terrorist attack on American soil would help the GOP. The point, again, is that Republicans actually think this way.

The McCain campaign, which has said it doesn't question Obama's patriotism, is now doing something awfully similar: Claiming that Barack Obama and the Democrats are dedicated to losing the war for their own political benefit.

The new accusation was unveiled on a McCain campaign conference call moments ago, with top McCain surrogates making this charge in tandem.

Sen. Lindsey Graham said that a "turning point" was when Harry Reid declared the war "lost" over a year ago, and brought up an old quote from Chuck Schumer predicting that discontent with the war would lead to further Democratic gains. "The Democratic Party built a political strategy around us losing the war in Iraq," Graham said.

McCain adviser Randy Scheunemann joined in: "Senator Obama seems to think losing a war will help him win an election."

Scheunemann then hammered Obama for voting against a war-funding bill last year that contained money for not only Iraq but also Afghanistan. "This is Senator Obama's judgment on display," Scheunemann said. "Defund our forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, in an effort to placate the left wing of the Democratic Party."

Late Update: As a commenter notes below, what Dems are being accused of thinking sounds awfully similar to something McCain himself actually said.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

Click To Play

Obama spokesperson Nick Shapiro, in a statement:

On Tuesday, Obama will deliver a major policy address on Iraq and national security in Washington. He will focus on the global strategic interests of the United States, which includes ending our misguided effort in Iraq.

As Mark Halperin notes, this comes a day after Obama published an Op ed in The New York Times reiterating that the troops should be withdrawn in 16 months.

Tomorrow's speech will be closely watched by people looking to skewer the "Obama-flip-flopped-on-Iraq" narrative -- and by others, inside and outside the McCain campaign, who are looking to advance it

The Obama campaign will also hold a reporters' conference call on Obama's Iraq plan with Senator Joe Biden and foreign policy adviser Susan Rice today at 12:30, an Obama campaign aide tells me. It appears that the Obama campaign is undertaking a serious Iraq offensive.

There are two facts about Joe Lieberman that the big news orgs simply can't bring themselves to tell their readers and viewers.

The first is that during the 2006 campaign against Ned Lamont, Lieberman and his aides vowed multiple times that he would continue caucusing with the Democrats. The second is that Lieberman also vowed to help elect a Democrat to the White House in 2008.

These facts must never be repeated. Case in point: This morning, The New York Times has a long piece by reporter Mark Leibovich on Lieberman's support for John McCain and the possibility of his eventual switch to the GOP. The piece reports:

He has not ruled out switching parties but has stopped short of saying he has moved so far from the Democratic Party -- or, in his view, the other way around -- that he is at a point of no return.

The claim that Lieberman "has not ruled out" switching parties is a rather questionable distortion of recent history -- one that's very helpful to him, as it happens.

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It's starting to look like the presidential race is narrowing once more. The latest Rasmussen tracking poll now has a nearly-tied race at Obama 47%, McCain 46%, the latest national poll showing the race to be practically even.

Rasmussen also registered a dead-even tie yesterday of 46%-46%, after Barack Obama had previously held a steady five-point lead for several weeks.

This is on top of the Newsweek poll from last week, which showed Obama's lead shrinking from 15 points to a mere three. The Gallup poll also has Obama up by three points.

Obama Camp: New Yorker Cover "Tasteless And Offensive"
The Obama campaign has condemned as "tasteless and offensive" the new cover of the New Yorker:

Cartoonist Barry Blitt defended the cover, in an e-mail to the Huffington Post: "It seemed to me that depicting the concept would show it as the fear-mongering ridiculousness that it is."

Obama Speaking To NAACP
Barack Obama will be in Cincinnati today, where he will be addressing the annual convention of the NAACP. In many ways, this is a moment in history: An organization founded when most African-Americans were disenfranchised will be hearing from a man who may well become America's first black president.

McCain Courting Latinos
John McCain is speaking today before the National Council of La Raza conference in San Diego, an effort by the Republican nominee to improve his party's standing among Latino activists unhappy with their anti-immigrant wing. "And I know this country, which I love more than almost anything, would be the poorer were we deprived of the patriotism, industry and decency of those millions of Americans whose families came here from other countries in our hemisphere," McCain will say, according to pre-released excerpts.

McCain: Obama Should Travel To South America
Also in his La Raza speech today, McCain will needle Obama as a neophyte on foreign policy, saying he should visit South American in order to learn the value of trade: "And while it is surely not my intention to become my opponent's scheduler, I hope Senator Obama soon visits some of the other countries of the Americas for the first time."

Obama Op-Ed: Iraqis Are Giving Us Opportunity To Withdraw
In an op-ed this morning in the New York Times, Barack Obama points out that the Iraqi government is now strongly pushing for a timetable of American withdrawal: "We should seize this moment to begin the phased redeployment of combat troops that I have long advocated, and that is needed for long-term success in Iraq and the security interests of the United States."

Obama To Visit Israel And West Bank
Barack Obama will be bolstering his image on foreign policy next week, with a visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories. The candidate will be meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as well as other top names in Israeli politics, plus Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and peace negotiator Saeb Erekat.

Hmm, it looks like the McCain camp might have just thrown Phil Gramm under the bus in the wake of his "Nation of Whiners" gaffe.

McCain economic adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin appeared Friday night on PBS' Nightly Business Report, and had the following exchange with correspondent Darren Gersh:

GERSH: Is Senator Gramm still giving advice to Senator McCain?

HOLTZ-EAKIN: No.

GERSH: No.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: At -- I haven't spoken to Senator Gramm since the comments took place, and I'm not expecting to.

That's a big change from McCain's former attitude, when he declared that there was nobody more respected on economics than Phil Gramm.

(Via The Page)

It's official: Republican Senator Chuck Hagel's office has put out an announcement that he will be joining Barack Obama on a trip to Iraq and Afghanistan, along with Democratic Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island.

In many ways, Hagel has become the mirror image of Joe Lieberman -- he is a conservative who has infuriated his party through his opposition to the Iraq War. However, Hagel has not crossed party lines to endorse Barack Obama as of yet, opting only to refuse to endorse John McCain.

However, going on a overseas visit in the middle of the campaign season will be about as much of a vote of confidence in Obama's foreign policy vision as you could get without it turning into an outright endorsement.

Thus, expect a lot of reporters to ask Hagel repeatedly whether he is supporting Obama. As it is, expect him to do a lot for Obama in terms of running interference against Republican attacks that Obama doesn't have the experience or judgment for foreign policy.

Obama: Hagel And Reed "Good Guys"
Speaking to reporters last night on his campaign plane, Barack Obama acknowledged that Senators Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and Jack Reed (D-RI) could be accompanying him to Iraq. "They reflect, I think, a traditional bipartisan wisdom when it comes to foreign policy," Obama said. "Neither of them are ideologues but try to get the facts right and make a determination about what's best for U.S. interests -- and they're good guys."

Obama Speaking To Teachers Union, Latino Voters
Barack Obama has a busy day today, after taking yesterday off. The candidate is in San Diego, where he is speaking via satellite to the American Federation of Teachers convention in Chicago, and then proceeding to an in-person appearance before the annual conference of the National Council of La Raza.

McCain Taking The Weekend Off
John McCain does not have any public events scheduled for today. He will, however, be delivering his own speech before to the National Council of La Raza.

Iran Condemns McCain's Cigarette Jokes
The government of Iran has officially condemned John McCain's joke from earlier this week, that cigarette exports to Iran were a good way of killing them. "We condemn such jokes and believe them to be inappropriate for a U.S. presidential candidate," said a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Fiorina: Most American Not Concerned With Phil Gramm Gaffe
Carly Fiorina today tried to downplay the potential impact of Phil Gramm's declaration that America had become "a nation of whiners" about he economy. "Outside of Washington, where this is an interesting parlor game, I think most Americans are not really focused on what a bunch of surrogates are saying," Fiorina said on Meet The Press -- though it's unclear if the average American will see things as Fiorina does, as she's just a campaign surrogate.

McCain: I'm Learning To Use A Computer
Good news from John McCain. In an interview with the New York Times, McCain declared that he's finally learning how to use a computer by himself: "I am learning to get online myself, and I will have that down fairly soon, getting on myself. I don't expect to be a great communicator, I don't expect to set up my own blog."

Obama: It Would Be Hard For Jesse Jackson To Disagree With Me
Barack Obama told CNN that he had a private conversation with Jesse Jackson a few days before Jackson's derogatory comments, in which they discussed Obama's message at African-American venues about personal morality. "I think it would be hard for him to disagree with that since many of the things I have said are the things that he has said in the past," Obama said.