So now we know what Jack Davis -- who made it easier for rich folks to buy office by getting the Millionaire's Amendment overturned at the Supreme Court -- is doing with all his money.
He's buying gas for voters, the Rochester Democrat And Chroniclereports.
Davis, who is running in the Democratic primary for an open GOP-held seat that he previously ran for in 2004 and 2006, held a campaign event Thursday at a local gas station, paying the difference so that voters driving through could buy gas at $1.50 a gallon, the price before George W. Bush took office.
This tactic was previously used by other candidates in primaries and special elections this cycle, some of them self-financiers and others not. Many of them won their contests.
Report: Hillary's Biggest VP Impediment Is Bill
Jill Iscol, a donor to Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, told the Los Angeles Times that Barack Obama personally told her that Hillary Clinton was under consideration for vice president, but Bill Clinton's presence makes things "complicated." He said once you're a president, even if you're a former president, you're always a president," Iscol said.
Report: Hagel, Reed To Join Obama For Iraq Trip
Multiple news outlets have now reported that Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel, the Nebraska conservative who has turned vocally against the Iraq War, will be accompanying Barack Obama on his upcoming trip to Iraq. Also along for the trip will be Sen. Jack Reed, a Dem point man on foreign policy, but Hagel's presence is far more interesting -- might he become a mirror image of Joe Liebemran, crossing party lines to support the Dem for president?
Both Nominees Taking The Day Off
Both presidential candidates are taking the day off today. Neither Barack Obama nor John McCain have any public events scheduled.
Sebelius Not Denying VP Talk
In an interview with CQ, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius said that was not ever vetted for the vice presidency by John Kerry's team in 2004 -- but did not make the same statement about the Obama campaign this year. "Any discussion about this process is being done by the campaign itself," Sebelius said.
German Pol: Obama Shouldn't Speak At Brandenburg Gate
The leader of Bavaria's conservative party says Barack Obama shouldn't speak at the Brandenburg Gate, and accused the leftist foreign minister of pandering to the candidate. "Obama didn't do anything for German unification," Erwin Huber told the newspaper Welt am Sonntag. "That's not a criticism, but as a result there is no reason to grant him such a privilege."
Poll: Obama Leads In Missouri
A new Research 2000 poll in Missouri gives Barack Obama a 48%-43% lead in this swing state, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Most recent polls have given McCain the lead here, but the pollster's analysis in this case indicates that economic insecurity is increasingly driving voters into the Democratic column.
Possible Spoiler Candidate Files In Louisiana District
Some bad news for House Dems: Louisiana state Sen. Michael Jackson, who lost the special election Democratic primary to Rep. Don Cazayoux in a conservative district this spring, has filed to run in November as an independent. Jackson could potentially pick up African-American voters who might otherwise go for Cazayoux, thus splitting the vote in favor of the Republican in a district that Democrats just picked up.
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
A caveat on whether this is a drop: Newsweek had previously been something of an outlier in Obama's favor; this poll is a bit more in line with other national surveys. But Newsweek says the FISA change and other shifts (though he didn't actually shift on faith-based initiatives) are damaging Obama:
Obama's reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
That Obama is a typical politican/flip-flopper, of course, is the GOP/McCain message, just as it was in the past two presidential elections, and it's again being amplified by the national media, like last time and the time before. One has to hope that this doesn't mean it's gaining traction. On the other hand, the internals don't show any previous numbers for comparison, so it's hard to see whether there's been movement on this question.
The poll finds a swing in independents back to McCain:
In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.
On the other hand, the notion that Obama lost 14 points among indys seems hard to believe. But the survey finds the false Obama-is-a-Muslim rumor is alive and kicking:
Twelve percent of voters surveyed said that Obama was sworn in as a United States senator on a Qur'an, while 26 percent believe the Democratic candidate was raised as a Muslim and 39 percent believe he attended a Muslim school as a child growing up in Indonesia. None of these things is true.
Finally, at the end of the piece, Newsweek tells us the good news for Obama:
Concerns that he would be unable to unite the Democratic Party after the bruising fight against Clinton appear to be unfounded. Only 17 percent of former Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain in the general election, and 19 percent of undecided voters are former supporters of the New York senator. But 61 percent of registered voters who support Obama say they support him strongly, compared to just 39 percent who say they strongly support McCain.
There's been yet another odd twist in the story about alleged pressure by the Bush administration on the German government to block an Obama speech at Berlin's historically-charged Brandenburg Gate: The White House isn't denying the allegations.
At today's White House press gaggle, reporters asked for a comment on the charges...
"I'm not going to comment on any conversations," said White House press secretary Dana Perino.
"We have no view on the locations of candidates' speeches or events. Our position is that the candidates have to make their own decisions."
This is a bit odd. On one hand, Perino seems to be saying that the White House has no official and public position on whether Obama should deliver a speech before the Gate. But she isn't denying the charge that officials privately urged the Germans to nix the speech.
So here's where that leaves us. The one Bush administration official who supposedly expressed hostility to the idea on the record denies he ever did that. But respected German media outlets have reported, based on anonymous sources, that such pressure was privately brought to bear.
The German government denied this. But the White House didn't.
A source sends over a copy of a sharp new radio ad the Obama campaign will release a bit later today responding to this earlier RNC ad claiming Obama will hike taxes.
The Obama ad hammers McCain for the spot, saying the Arizona Senator is "shameful" for "makin' stuff up," and links the mendacity to Bush and Karl Rove. Give it a listen:
Here's yet another sign of just how abysmal the map is for Senate Republicans this year: They are openly saying there are exactly zero safe seats this year -- not even Kansas, a red state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
"We have no safe seats right now," NRSC spokesman Scott Bensing told the Kansas City Star. "In a normal election year, we would not be concerned at all. But those are the cards we're dealt. We're not taking any states for granted."
Two-term Republican Pat Roberts is facing a challenge from former Rep. Jim Slattery, and might be vulnerable because of his role as a lead apologist for the Bush Administration's Iraq policies when he was chairman of the Intelligence Committee. Even if you think Roberts is favored to win, it still says something that the NRSC has to pay any attention at all to this very red state.
We're going to bring you every bit of info we can find on the campaigns' national ad spending, and this is kind of a fun one.
It appears Obama is vastly outspending McCain on ads at the late Jesse Helms' old TV station in North Carolina, suggesting the campaign is making a real play for a state that hasn't voted for a Dem since Carter in 1976.
The Raleigh News and Observer reports that Obama has plunked down over $80,000 for ads at WRAL, a CBS affiliate in Raleigh. That's a decent sum for this point in the campaign. John McCain, by contrast, has spent nothing.
The interesting historical wrinkle here is that WRAL is the station where Helms had served as an executive since the 1960s and had done on-air editorials that were, shall we say, racially-charged. In 1963, Helms had this to say about Civil Rights protests on the station:
"The Negro cannot count forever on the kind of restraint that's thus far left him free to clog the streets, disrupt traffic, and interfere with other men's rights."
Forty-five years later, the first black man with a serious shot at becoming president is spending real money at this station and has at least a shot at winning the state. How about them historical apples, eh?
Former Rep. Melissa Hart -- a Pennsylvania Republican who lost her seat in a 2006 upset and is now seeking a comeback -- just can't seem to let go of the myth that China is drilling for oil off American shores. She now admits the Chinese weren't drilling in the Gulf of Mexico when she pushed it last month -- but she says they might be drilling now.
Here's a clip from an interview with Hart earlier this week, with Pennsylvania blog 2 Political Junkies:
"The fact was that they were not at that moment drilling," Hart said. "But they may already be now."
Hart originally made the claim on May 20. This was before Dick Cheney retracted the story, so we were willing to let this tall tale slide.
It looks like the story that the Bush administration pressured the German government to nix an Obama speech at Berlin's historic Brandenburg Gate is getting shakier.
The Treasury Department has just told me that stories in the German press saying that a Treasury official expressed open hostility to the idea are "not an accurate reflection of what he said."
As noted below, Der Spiegel cited another German press report quoting Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt saying this about the idea: "It would be nice if the German government would focus on strengthening its contacts to us rather than already beginning to look for our successors."
The quote reinforced the idea that the Bush administration was trying to tell the German government not to help Obama by facilitating the speech.
But Kimmitt's spokesperson Brookly McLaughlin, tells me that this is wrong. She says that the quote from Kimmitt was not a reference to the battle over the speech.
"This report is not an accurate reflection of what he said," she says.
We've just obtained from a Democratic source a long list of 31 races that the DCCC has decided to target with ads this fall -- a list that offers a glimpse into the national Dems' view of which Republican seats are ripe targets and which Dems are vulnerable.
The DCCC's list adds up to over $34 million on TV ads this September and October in 31 targeted districts, a move designed to swamp the NRCC with the Dems' huge cash advantage.
The list suggests that Democrats see a very wide playing field this November. About two thirds of the money is going to districts currently held by Republicans, many of them in traditionally tough areas for Democrats.
For example, the Dems are planning to spend $1.2 million on the open seat of New Mexico Congressman Steve Pearce, and $1.5 million against incumbent Michigan Republican Tim Walberg -- both of which have been traditionally viewed as Republican safe seats.
It's highly unusual for the party committees to disclose their ad buying strategy, and the DCCC declined to comment.
The Obama campaign sends over a statement saying the Journal story reporting he raised $30 million in June is false.
From spokesperson Dan Pfeiffer:
"The Wall Street Journal report of our fundraising numbers is way off the mark. It appears that after 18 months, some in the press still haven't realized that anyone who is talking about numbers doesn't know what our numbers are."
Earlier today, the Obama campaign wasn't commenting on the story. This will obviously prove a relief to many.
The story of the potential Obama speech at Berlin's historic Brandenburg Gate just gets stranger by the minute.
Here's the latest: Reuters is now reporting that the German government adamantly denys that the Bush administration put any back-channel pressure of any kind on Chancellor Angela Merkel to block the speech from happening. The Associated Press adds that Merkel says Germany will be able to work out its differences with Obama over this.
But Reuters adds a key detail, reporting that she still opposes the idea...
Merkel's spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm said the Illinois senator was welcome in Berlin even if details of his visit are still unclear. He said, however, that Merkel had not dropped her objections to Obama speaking at the Brandenburg Gate.
Why the objection? Reuters says that Merkel doesn't want to see the Gate used for "electioneering," and called the idea "odd."
Perhaps no American official tried to nix the idea privately. But the fact is, we now know that one American official expressed his hostility to the idea on the record. Does the Bush administration have an official position on this, and does it have anything to do with Merkel's coolness to the idea? Weirder and weirder...
Yesterday I noted that Germany's Der Spiegel had reported that the Bush administration was privately trying to block Barack Obama from making a speech at Berlin's historic Brandenburg Gate.
Now Der Spiegel has more, citing another German report that actually has an American official on the record shedding light on what might really be going on here:
The German government, however, is more concerned with other possible side-effects of the speech. An overly warm welcome for Obama could anger the Republican candidate, John McCain, as it would not exactly be a good starting point should McCain be elected this autumn. Furthermore, any indication that Berlin is over-eager to see the end of the Bush administration is not likely to play well in Washington.
Indeed, Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt told the mass circulation tabloid Bild that "it would be nice if the German government would focus on strengthening its contacts to us rather than already beginning to look for our successors."
This American official is openly letting his hostility to the idea be known. Meanwhile, Ben Smith reports that his German-speaking readers have found reports in the German press saying that an American official "berated" a German official about the speech idea.
This definitely warrants some follow-up reporting.
The Obama campaign isn't commenting on this, but The Wall Street Journal reports that Obama may announce that he raised a little over $30 million in June.
That's more than the $22 million McCain raised in June, but the paper nonetheless calls the number "underwhelming." It lists some reasons for the smaller-than-expected haul: The slowness of Hillary's big-money people to get behind Obama and his irking of some on the left, which could be dampening the ardor of his small donor base, among others.
Again, the campaign isn't confirming the number. And I can't vouch for it. But here's the cold, hard math: The Obama campaign wants to raise at least $300 million, and in order to do this he has to haul in an average of at least $50 million a month. If the Journal's number is right, this obviously didn't happen in June.
On the other hand, Obama's fundraisers reportedly expect the money flow to swell into a torrent when the conventions kick off and public attention really focuses on the race.
New McCain Ad Makes Appeal To Hispanic Voters
John McCain has a new ad set to air in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, in which the candidate makes a direct appeal for Hispanic voters who have largely been alienated by the Republican Party's anti-immigrant wing. Note that the ad uses footage of McCain at a June 2007 debate, with McCain's defense of immigrants' patriotism in front of none other than Tom Tancredo:
Obama Talking About Energy Today In Ohio
Barack Obama is visiting Dayton, Ohio, where he will be holding a "Secure Energy Future Town Hall." Ohio has proven to be a pivotal swing state delivering Republican victories in recent elections, but Obama has taken a narrow lead in the most recent polls -- and you can bet he'll be working very hard in the coming months to sustain that.
McCain Visiting Wisconsin, Where Obama Is Polling Ahead
John McCain is making a visit today to Wisconsin, an attempt to win over a state that has narrowly voted Democratic in the past two elections. Meanwhile, a new Rasmussen poll gives Barack Obama a 50%-39% lead here, up from a 45%-43% lead a month ago.
Report: Obama Team Vetting Dodd For VP -- And Not Vetting Hillary
Former Hillary Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said on Fox News last night that the Obama campaign is not vetting Hillary for vice president, to the best of his knowledge. Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that Chris Dodd is being vetted.
McCain Hits Obama For Missing Vote That He Missed, Too
Good work on CNN's part for spotting this: John McCain has been criticizing Barack Obama's national security credentials for missing the September 2007 vote on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment. But McCain, who has missed the vast majority of Senate votes since he began running for president, also skipped out on that vote.
Dem Chances Go Up In Red Florida Seat
Rep. Tom Feeney, a former Florida House Speaker who worked to pass legislation in 2000 to award the state's electoral votes to George W. Bush just in case the recounts didn't work out, might be in danger of a seriously-funded challenge from Democrat Suzanne Kosmas. The Rothenberg and Cook Reports, plus CQ, have all changed their ratings on this race to "Leans Republican," up from safer ratings for the GOP.
Poll: GOP Sen. Susan Collins Way Ahead Of Dem Opponent
A new poll from Maine by local pollster Pan Atlantic SMS shows two-term Republican Senator Susan Collins having a huge lead over Democratic Congressman Tom Allen: Collins 56%, Allen 31%. Barack Obama is heavily favored to win Maine's electoral votes, but Collins appears to be safe and getting more than her fair share of ticket-splitters.
As you all know, after McCain economic adviser Phil Gramm's claim that we're a "nation of whiners" blew up into big news, John McCain distanced himself from Gramm by saying that Gramm "does not speak for me."
But as it turns out, Gramm was in fact very much speaking for McCain and representing him at a meeting today with a New York newspaper editorial board. Check out this throwaway line in WaPo's write-up today...
Speaking today from New York, where he was meeting with the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board on McCain's economic policies, Gramm said the nation's economy was initially thought to have grown by an anemic 0.6 percent in the first three months of the year.
Oops. Adding to what Matthew Yglesias says here, it might be a good idea for McCain to get himself a top economic adviser who does represent his views in situations such as meetings with the edit boards of powerful newspapers.
A new series of ads by the Oregon Democrats raises an interesting question: Is the state party trying to evade campaign finance rules by running so-called "issue ads" -- which ostensibly aren't supposed to be about the candidates -- that just so happen to star their nominee for Senate?
Since last week, the Oregon Dems have been running ads featuring Senate nominee Jeff Merkley, the state House speaker who is running against GOP Senator Gordon Smith. Here's one of them:
As you can see, this "issue" ad does showcase a candidate.
Over the past several weeks, a whole bunch of you have written in from all over the country to say that it seems like John McCain is outspending Barack Obama on ads in your areas.
Well, here's something that may -- repeat, may -- shed some light on this.
On the McCain conference call about the combined $94 million he and the RNC have in cash on hand, campaign manager Rick Davis claimed that they were outspending the Obama team by a large margin.
"We have spent up until last week probably over $10 million more than Obama has in the last two months on television advertising," Davis said, adding: "From April to this point, we've spent almost three times the amount of TV spending that Obama has."
Is it true? The Obama campaign declined to respond to Davis' claim, saying it doesn't comment on its ad buys.
It's not easy to verify or disprove this. Such claims are typically based on what a campaign's ad buyers are telling campaign aides about what the other side is spending. We're going to try to dig into this in the days ahead and see if we can settle this.
Late Update: Obama spokesperson Bill Burton responds: "We are proud of the more than 1.7 million contributors to our campaign who are committed to changing Washington and are simply not surprised that John McCain and President Bush have been able to raise millions of dollars for the McCain campaign last month, much of it from Washington lobbyists."
Late Late Update: Here's the audio from the conference call:
There's been an interesting twist in the ongoing behind-the-scenes discussions over whether Barack Obama will deliver a speech on July 24th at Berlin's historically-charged Brandenburg Gate.
A new report in the German press says that Bush administration officials are unhappy with the idea and privately said as much to representatives of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The whole thing started when Der Spiegel reported the other day that Obama would be visiting Berlin on July 24th, stirring speculation that he wanted to speak before the Gate, a place that's associated with JFK and Ronald Reagan, symbolizes the end of the Cold War, and would give Obama's speech a great deal of historical resonance.
The Obama campaign has been tight-lipped about his plans, saying that he has "considered several sites for a possible speech." Meanwhile, Merkel has reacted with coolness to the idea.
Now Der Spiegel has added a new twist to the tale.
The McCain campaign announced today that they and the RNC have a combined cash on hand of over $94 million -- an indication that they'll very much be able to compete with Barack Obama's fundraising machine.
On a conference call just now with reporters, Rick Davis said that the campaign currently has over $26 million on hand, plus the RNC's over $67 million. They expect to have a total of $210 million between September and Election Day alone -- and a total budget of over $400 million for the pre-convention and general-election cycle.
For comparison, the current McCain/RNC total is about twice the combined Obama/DNC cash figure through the end of May, though the June numbers from after Obama sewed up the nomination have yet to be released.
"When you're starting with a cash position one half of your opponent who has never shown a propensity for fundraising, that's not where you want to be," Davis said.
Hoping to force John McCain to own Phil Gramm's assertion that we're in a "mental recession" and are a "nation of whiners," Barack Obama himself has just hit his foe over the remark.
"One of his top economic advisors, former Senator Phil Gramm, said that we're merely in a mental recession," Obama told reporters moments ago. "He didn't say this, but I guess what he meant was it's a fiction of your imagination, these high gas prices."
"A nation of whiners," Obama repeated. "Now this comes after Senator McCain recently admitted that his energy proposals for the gas tax holiday and the drilling, will have mainly psychological benefits."
Here's Obama...
Meanwhile, as promised below, McCain personally distanced himself from the comments.
A new Rasmussen poll suggests that Barack Obama may actually be putting North Dakota in play, a state that hasn't voted Democratic since 1964 but has found itself targeted by the Obama campaign's advertising.
The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 46%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.
The state has only three electoral votes, but those are three votes that the Republican can usually count on winning very easily. In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry here by a 63%-36% margin.
Okay, this is interesting. The McCain campaign just responded to our post below pointing out that top McCain surrogates are openly questioning Obama's American-ness, for lack of a better word.
I asked the McCain camp whether he agrees with those surrogates. In response, McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers referred me back to this exchange between McCain and reporters.
In that previous exchange, McCain had been asked whether Obama was patriotic, and didn't quite answer the question directly, though he did describe Obama as a "great American success story." McCain's spokesperson then added...
Sen. McCain's comments speak for themselves -- he respects Sen. Obama and considers him "a great American success story." The question in this campaign is about issues and whose vision can move us forward to security and prosperity.
The McCain campaign is distancing itself from national campaign co-chair and top economic adviser Phil Gramm's claim that we're in a "mental recession" and are a "nation of whiners." The campaign has just sent us this:
"Phil Gramm's comments are not representative of John McCain's views. John McCain travels the country every day talking to Americans who are hurting, feeling pain at the pump and worrying about how they'll pay their mortgage. That's why he has a realistic plan to deliver immediate relief at the gas pump, grow our economy and put Americans back to work."
In a sign that the McCain campaign is worried about having to own Gramm's comments, a McCain campaign official tells me that McCain himself will address Gramm's comments to reporters on his plane today.
Late Update: The Obama campaign tries to wrap Gramm's comments around McCain's neck, blasting out this from spokesperson Bill Burton:
"One of Senator McCain's top economic advisors may think that when people are struggling with lost jobs, stagnant wages, and the rising costs of everything from gas to groceries, it's merely a 'mental recession'. And Senator McCain may think it's sufficient to offer energy proposals that he admits will have mainly 'psychological' benefits. But the American people know that our economic problems aren't just in their heads. They don't need psychological relief - they need real relief - and that's what Barack Obama will provide as President."
John McCain's campaign has explicitly said that questions about Obama's patriotism are off limits, but McCain's highest-profile surrogates have embarked on a new round of efforts to raise questions about Obama's American-ness, for lack of a better word -- with no objection yet from the McCain camp.
The occasion for the latest insinuations about Obama's American-ness is the Illinois Senator's recent claim that Americans should learn a second language. "You should be thinking about how can your child become bilingual," Obama told a crowd the other day, adding that it was "embarrassing" that Europeans can speak English while Americans can't communicate in other languages abroad.
Now McCain's surrogates are taking this perfectly innocuous observation and using it to sow doubts about Obama.
"I do think that, frankly, Barack Obama looks toward Europe for a lot of his inspiration," top McCain supporter Mitt Romney told Fox News on Tuesday. "I think John McCain is going to make sure that America stays America."
Does that mean Obama won't make sure America stays America?
And here's Rudy Giuliani today on Morning Joe, saying that Obama is "capturing" an "anti-American feeling" that exists in Europe, where Obama is "popular"...
But a few days ago, top McCain adviser Charlie Black said of Obama: "We concede that he's a patriot."
So the question for the McCain camp now is, Does McCain agree with what his surrogates are saying about Obama?
If the Dems have their way, McCain top economic adviser Phil Gramm's claim that we're in a "mental recession" and that we're a "nation of whiners" will be the lead story of the day.
The Democratic National Committee's chief spokesperson, Karen Finney, is already out with a response...
What John McCain, George Bush Phil Gramm just don't understand is that the American people aren't whining about the state of the economy, they are suffering under the weight of it -- the weight of eight years of Bush-enomics that John McCain and Phil Gramm have vowed to continue. How dare John McCain and his advisers so callously dismiss the challenges the American people face. no wonder voters feel John McCain is out of touch, he and his campaign don't even understand the everyday issues Americans are dealing with."
Will this be a big story? Will McCain be forced to own these comments, just as the relentless press coverage of Wes Clark's non-impugning of McCain's war service came close to forcing Obama to own those?
Meanwhile, let's entertain ourselves by trying to figure out how the Associated Press will spin this one in McCain's favor. Here's my guess at what the AP's headline will be for this story:
McCain's Top Economic Adviser Speaks To The Economic Concerns of Americans
Hmmmm. This really won't do much to allay John McCain's big disadvantage among voters who cite the economy as a leading concern.
Check out what Phil Gramm, the top economic adviser to McCain, had to say in a new interview:
"You've heard of mental depression; this is a mental recession," he said, noting that growth has held up at about 1 percent despite all the publicity over losing jobs to India, China, illegal immigration, housing and credit problems and record oil prices. "We may have a recession; we haven't had one yet."
"We have sort of become a nation of whiners," he said. "You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline" despite a major export boom that is the primary reason that growth continues in the economy, he said.
Out of touch much? McCain's top economic adviser thinks we are in a "mental recession" and thinks America is a "nation of whiners."
This is becoming a pattern. As Think Progress points out, McCain recently said that a lot of our problems are "psychological." And as we noted here the other day, when asked if we are in a recession, McCain could only bring himself to say that "I would imagine that we are."
Late Update: The Democratic National Committee responds.
Obama Reaching Out To Women Voters Today
Barack Obama's campaign will be focusing heavily on women voters today, starting with this morning's high-profile fundraiser in New York City with Hillary Clinton. The campaign will also release an in-depth plan on "Economic Security for America's Working Women," and the candidate will head to Fairfax, Virginia, where he'll host a town hall focusing on those issues.
McCain Courting Blue-State Voters
John McCain today is visiting two states that have gone Democratic for quite a while: Michigan, which hasn't voted Republican since 1988, and Minnesota, which hasn't gone GOP since the 1972 Nixon landslide. That said, both states have tended to be close in recent elections, and the McCain campaign is hoping to finally win them over.
Obama Almost Forgets To Ask For Money For Hillary
At a joint fundraiser with Hillary Clinton last night in New York, Barack Obama initially forgot to request money to help retire Hillary Clinton's campaign debt when he gave his speech. After realizing his error a few minutes later, he returned to the stage and asked his supporters to help Hillary.
Fiorina Goes Off-Message For McCain The Los Angeles Timesnotes this morning that former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina hasn't been all that great a spokesperson for John McCain. For example, Fiorina suggested on Monday that McCain thinks insurance companies should have to cover birth control for women -- something that McCain has voted against in the Senate.
German Chancellor Opposes Obama Speech At Brandenburg Gate The New York Timesreports that German leaders are divided on the rumored plans of the Obama campaign to speak at the Brandenburg Gate, the site of Ronald Reagan's famous "Tear Down This Wall" speech, with the right against it and the left for it. "No German candidate for high office would think to use the National Mall or Red Square in Moscow for a rally, because it would be seen as inappropriate," said a spokesman for conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel.
GOPer Defeated In Special Election Drops Out Of Fall Race
Woody Jenkins, the Republican candidate who lost to Democrat Don Cazayoux in one of those embarrassing special elections this past Spring, has announced that he isn't running again. Republicans are set to rally around Bill Cassidy, a Baton Rouge state Senator, who a GOP source tells us has already managed to put together an impressive campaign structure and fundraising base over the last three weeks.
The Obama campaign released the following statement tonight, in reaction to Jesse Jackson's comments about their candidate:
"As someone who grew up without a father in the home, Senator Obama has spoken and written for many years about the issue of parental responsibility, including the importance of fathers participating in their children's lives. He also discusses our responsibility as a society to provide jobs, justice, and opportunity for all. He will continue to speak out about our responsibilities to ourselves and each other, and he of course accepts Reverend Jackson's apology," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
What's interesting here is that the bulk of this statement is dedicated to standing by the main points about personal morality that Jackson had attacked. While Jackson's apology is accepted in clear terms, the placement of the acceptance at the end puts it in a secondary position to the main points -- as in, Obama will continue speaking as he pleases.
When asked about concerns he is creating the impression that Obama would not be a friend to Israel, Lieberman responded: "It's my way of thinking that if I've concluded, as I have, that John McCain is best for our country, then why wouldn't I do that?"
That seems like a pretty straight-up admission by Lieberman that his Obama's-bad-for-Israel nonsense is pure propaganda designed to help McCain. Or maybe we're missing something?
A top House Republican is taking very seriously the idea that Barack Obama could alter the election map -- specifically, that Obama could spur high turnout from African-American voters and drastically change down-ticket races in the South.
"I think you'll see House members who won their last race by 60%-65% percent lose because of the turnout model that Obama brings," said Rep. Adam Putnam, chairman of the House Republican Conference, the St. Petersburg Timesreports.
We've seen some early hints of a changing electoral map, with Democrats winning special elections in Louisiana and Mississippi districts where the Republicans usually got over 60%. But those races didn't involve incumbents. Is Putnam right that we'll be seeing more of this?
As you may have heard by now, Barack Obama voted for the FISA cave-in bill in the Senate today, and Hillary voted against it.
Hillary has now explained her vote in a new statement...
The legislation also makes no meaningful change to the immunity provisions. There is little disagreement that the legislation effectively grants retroactive immunity to the telecommunications companies. In my judgment, immunity under these circumstances has the practical effect of shutting down a critical avenue for holding the administration accountable for its conduct. It is precisely why I have supported efforts in the Senate to strip the bill of these provisions, both today and during previous debates on this subject. Unfortunately, these efforts have been unsuccessful...
Congress must vigorously check and balance the president even in the face of dangerous enemies and at a time of war. That is what sets us apart. And that is what is vital to ensuring that any tool designed to protect us is used -- and used within the law -- for that purpose and that purpose alone. I believe my responsibility requires that I vote against this compromise, and I will continue to pursue reforms that will improve our ability to collect intelligence in our efforts to combat terror and to oversee that authority in Congress.
A GOP Senate candidate in Louisiana who used to be a Democrat has flip-flopped on Social Security, saying he now supports privatization when news reports indicate that he opposed it back when he was a Dem.
GOP candidate hews to party line on Social Security -- no surprise there. But here's the odd thing. The candidate's flack is saying that pointing out the flip-flop is a Dem talking point -- without refuting the flip-flop.
John Kennedy, the Republican candidate for Senate in Louisiana, endorsed President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security at a campaign stop yesterday. The problem: Kennedy used to be a Democrat, and when he ran for Senate in 2004 the Shreveport Times quoted him as opposing it (via Nexis).
So we e-mailed Kennedy spokesman Lenny Alcivar, with an open-ended question about what Kennedy's position is. He simply replied that we were "falling hook, line and sinker for the dem state party spin."
So we asked him why we were wrong and how this was falling for spin. "You don't know what you're talking about," he answered, repeating that we "fell for their spin directly."
So we asked him yet again why this wasn't a flip-flop, and why it was merely Dem spin. Not surprisingly, he didn't answer that either. Oh, well. We tried.
I've just confirmed that Progessive Media U.S.A. -- the independent group that was formed to great fanfare by David Brock to bludgeon McCain with ad spending before Obama put the kibosh on such outside expenditures -- has now reconstituted itself as a new group devoted to researching and tracking John McCain.
The newly formed group, called ProgressiveAccountability.org, reflects the efforts of such outside groups to adapt to the new landscape Obama has created in Democratic presidential politics -- one in which outside Dem ad spending has been effectively snuffed in service of centralizing the Democratic message through the Obama campaign.
The new group -- a joint project of John Podesta's Center for American Progress Action Fund and Brock's Media Matters Action Network -- will have approximately 20 paid staffers and is headed by Tara McGuinness, formerly connected with MoveOn.org. It won't spend any money on ads, but will devote significant resources on digging into McCain's record and policy proposals.
The group also has on-staff trackers that will film McCain at every public event and post the footage on the group's Web site.
Interestingly, the treasure trove of research and months of tracking footage that had already been collected by Brock's group have now been posted on the site, too -- another reflection of the ongoing search by such groups for a way to be useful in a general election at a time when outside ad spending has been nixed by Obama.
"We track McCain and his policies and will post literally the footage of every event he does," said Jennifer Palmieri, communications director for the CAP Action Fund. "We're creating an excellent McCain resource."
The group does indeed promise to offer a useful trove of info. Take a look.
With the news today that Iran's Revolutionary Guards test-fired nine medium and long-range missiles, the campaign battle shifted today over to what to do about Iran. And just moments ago, the McCain campaign misleadingly attacked Obama for allegedly opposing the designation of the Guards as a terrorist organization.
On a conference call with reporters just now, McCain senior foreign policy adviser Kori Schake hit Obama, saying he "opposed calling them a terrorist organization." The basis for the charge? Obama's opposition to the Kyl-Lieberman amendment.
The McCain camp repeatedly labeled Obama as "consistently weak on Iran."
But Obama has in fact supported labeling the guards a terrorist org, and explicitly said at the time of the Kyl-Lieberman vote that he opposed it for other reasons.
The Obama campaign is making a major play for the perennial swing state of Missouri, but a new poll finds that John McCain has taken the lead there.
The latest numbers from Rasmussen: McCain 47%, Obama 42%. A month ago, it was Obama 43% to McCain 42%. This is in line with a SurveyUSA poll from two weeks ago, which also had McCain taking the lead after Obama had previously held a narrow edge.
The Obama campaign is pouring an extraordinary amount of resources into the state. The Kansas City Starreports today that the campaign is hiring an astonishing 150 paid staffers for Missouri alone.
I've just obtained a first look at a new Web ad hitting McCain on Iraq that the Democratic National Committee plans to release later today.
It's a good one. Take a look...
In an ironic touch, the ad, after showing at least half a dozen of McCain's positions on when the troops would come home, concludes that he represents "more of the same on Iraq."
Barack Obama may have closed down outside expenditures by 527 groups, but he still has Big Labor cranking out the ad spending on his behalf. Check out this ad that the AFL-CIO will air beginning tomorrow in select communities across the country...
At the outset of the ad a veteran actually praises McCain's war record before going on to attack his Senate record -- an effort to defuse the power of McCain's bio and suggest that you can admire his service while voting based on, you know, his record and policies.
According to the AFL-CIO's release, the ad "will run in targeted communities across the country hit the hardest by the bad economy and the Bush economic policies." More details of the buy when we get them.
Late Update: The AFL-CIO has informed us that the initial targeted states for the ad are Minnesota, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Wow. The Associated Press' fluffing of John McCain is getting almost cartoonish at this point.
Yesterday the AP actually ran a story about a poll the news org did of pet owners, finding that they favor McCain over the "petless" Obama. Now check out how the AP head and subhed read on their reporting today on McCain's "joke" about killing Iranians:
And here's AP's lede...
Cindy McCain's jab to her husband's back came a second too late Tuesday to keep him from making a wisecrack about the health impact of Iran's main import from the United States: cigarettes.
Right, the news here is that McCain and his wife bantered playfully -- and that McCain made a "wisecrack" about cigarettes.
Um, AP, the joke was about killing Iranians. Asked about increased exports to Iran, mainly from cigarettes, McCain said: "Maybe that's a way of killing them." The joking about killing was the news here.
Separately, it turns out that the AP's poll findings yesterday that pet-owners prefer Mccain are not only absurd, but thoroughly bogus, too. Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal has the must-read take-down.
A new Gallup polling analysis suggests that Barack Obama is overcoming any previous difficulties he had with less-educated voters, defying a piece of conventional wisdom that was bandied about during the primaries and afterward.
Back in March, Obama trailed John McCain by a 47%-40% margin among voters with only a high-school education or less. But in June's aggregate polling, they were tied 43%-43%. From Gallup's analysis:
Obama's gains among less-educated voters are surely a positive sign for his campaign, and certainly help allay some of the concerns about his electability, specifically regarding his struggles in appealing to this core Democratic group. While he is on track to do less well than other recent Democratic presidential candidates among voters with less formal education, his great appeal to college-educated voters (in particular, those whose schooling continued after getting a college degree) helps to offset that.
With the Senate vote on the FISA cave-in bill set to take place later this morning, the McCain camp moved to take charge of the FISA news cycle, blasting Obama as a flip-flopper and an opportunist in a new statement...
"A few short months ago, Barack Obama outwardly opposed terrorist surveillance legislation, saying that he would filibuster any bill that includes immunity for American telecommunications companies that had been asked by the government to participate in the program. Today, the U.S. Senate will approve legislation providing the immunity Barack Obama supposedly opposed, and despite his promise, he will not support a filibuster. What Barack Obama will do is show that he's willing to change positions, break campaign commitments and undermine his own words in his quest for higher office."
The vote is set to take place at 11:15. We'll bring you Obama's response if and when it comes.
Take a look at Obama on MSNBC this morning, pushing back on the Iraq flip-flop narrative...
Obama didn't quite answer when asked directly whether he would listen to the commanders on the ground if they urged him to keep combat troops in Iraq, but in some ways that's as it should be: No need to answer a hypothetical beyond saying that he, not the commanders, establishes military policy in consultation with them.
Separately, also note that Obama has begun to cite Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki's call for a troop withdrawal timetable as a way of pushing back against McCain's efforts to box him in on the issue.
Sen. John McCain hasn't had good luck joking about Iran. But he tried it again Tuesday.
Responding to a question about a survey that shows increased exports to Iran, mainly from cigarettes, McCain said, "Maybe thats a way of killing them."
He quickly caught himself, saying "I meant that as a joke" as his wife, Cindy, poked him in the back.
That's not very presidential, now is it. It'll be interesting to see what kind of coverage and commentary this generates, if any.
NYT: Obama Donors Not Rushing To Relieve Hillary's Debts The New York Timesreports that many of Barack Obama's donors aren't joining in on the candidate's request to donate money to retire Hillary Clinton's campaign debt. "Not a penny for that woman. Or her husband. Or -- god forbid -- Mark Penn," one donor said -- an ungrateful reaction, when you consider how much Mark Penn did to help Obama win the nomination.
Obama With Hillary In New York City, McCain In Michigan
Barack Obama Will be coming to New York City tonight for a big-money fundraiser, featuring one other than Hillary Clinton -- a further step in forging an image of Democratic unity. John McCain will be in Michigan, a swing state that has not gone Republican since 1988, but where he's hoping to make inroads.
McCain Jokes About Killing Iranians
Oh, boy. John McCain was asked yesterday about a report that exports to Iran have increased in recent years, including such products as cigarettes. "Maybe that's a way of killing them," McCain joked.
Obama: No More Malia And Sasha Interviews
Barack Obama has had a change of heart regarding the media attention surrounding his daughters, after watching the recent Access Hollywood interview with his whole family. "I don't think it's healthy and it's something we'll be avoiding in the future," Obama told ABC's Good Morning America.
Dem Chances Go Up In New York House Seat CQ has changed its rating for New York's 25th Congressional District from "No Clear Favorite" To "Leans Democrat," citing the strong fundraising and ad campaign from Democratic candidate Dan Maffei. The seat is currently held by Republican Jim Walsh, who just narrowly fended off Maffei in 2006, and is now retiring.
Mark Penn Teams Up With Bush Insider
Mark Penn has acquired an interesting new staffer at his public relations firm: Karen Hughes, a former top staffer in George W. Bush's White House. "Karen and I have had so many of the same experiences in the White House and campaigns," Penn said.
The Democratic unity-fest is set to continue this week, with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton teaming up for some big-money fundraising events on Wednesday and Thursday, the Obama campaign has announced.
The two will meet for a Wednesday evening fundraiser in New York City, followed by a Women For Obama breakfast Thursday morning in New York City.
These joint appearance, starting with their event last week in Unity, New Hampshire, and perhaps extending all the way to Election Day, are viewed as crucial steps in lining up Hillary's voters, especially older women, into Obama's column. So expect a lot of media coverage -- and parsing of just how glowing Hillary's praise of Obama is -- when they do these.
It looks like Barack Obama is taking the fight to John Mccain on immigration. In a speech today, Obama aggressively targeted the Arizona Senator on the issue, charging that McCain had been friendly to Latinos until the GOP primary forced him to abandon his previous principled stand.
Key quote:
Now, I know Senator McCain used to buck his party on immigration by fighting for comprehensive reform, and I admired him for it. But when he was running for his party's nomination, he abandoned his courageous stance, and said that he wouldn't even support his own legislation if it came up for a vote. Well, for eight long years, we've had a President who made all kinds of promises to Latinos on the campaign trail, but failed to live up to them in the White House, and we can't afford that anymore. We need a President who isn't going to walk away from something as important as comprehensive reform when it becomes politically unpopular.
The Obama campaign will spend the next four months targeting McCain on issues -- such as immigration -- where he earlier held a "maverick" position that he's now jettisoned in order to please the Republican base.
Well, what do you know: We finally found a Republican who's willing to acknowledge that the myth that China is drilling for oil off American shores is, well, a myth.
We previously noted that Rep. Mark Kirk, an Illinois Republican facing a tight re-election battle this year, made the false claim in June. His offices didn't return our calls.
But the Chicago Tribune asked Kirk's office for clarification, and has now gotten a retraction. "While the Cubans may have issued offshore drilling rights, Congressman Kirk has publicly agreed that the Chinese are not currently drilling for oil near Florida," Kirk's chief of staff told the paper. Score one for reality.
David Corn at Mother Jones asked an interesting question today: Is the McCain campaign screening questions from reporters on its campaign conference calls, in order to protect the candidate or his advisers and surrogates from tough questions?
I've checked in with the McCain camp about this, and they have now responded, saying they don't know before-hand what the questions are and that they "take on all comers."
When a reporter calls in for a conference call, he or she is asked by an operator to provide his or her name and media outlet. Then when it comes time for questions, there is a long pause -- long enough for someone in the campaign to select whom should be called on. This has caused several journalists who have participated in these calls to wonder: is the McCain campaign screening reporters, and, if so, on what basis? A reporter for a progressive media outlet says that he has tried at least half a dozen times to ask a question on a McCain conference call and has had never been selected.
The same has happened to me. No matter how quickly I press *1, I'm never afforded the opportunity to pose a question.
Asked to respond, McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers tells me that the first time the McCain campaign hears the questions that are asked on the call is when the entire call-full of reporters hears them. "No one knows the questions before they're asked," Rogers said. "No one hears the questions before they're asked."
But are the questioners permitted to ask a question -- or blocked from doing so -- based on the news org they're affiliated with? "You've been on the calls," Rogers replied. "We take on all comers."
TPM reporter-blogger Eric Kleefeld, who frequents these calls, says that his sense is that more of the questions that do end up getting asked come from friendly news outlets, though there are definitely occasions where tougher ones get posed. Kleefeld adds, however, that he has frequently tried to ask a question and never gotten through.
Late Update: It's worth noting that we don't recall ever hearing a conservative blogger ask a question on an Obama call. The McCain campaign has reached out to liberal bloggers to go on their calls, though they rarely seem to have gotten their questions through.
The McCain campaign appears to be unable to decide when he'll succeed in balancing the budget. Is he promising a balanced budget by the end of his first term -- partly contingent on a sudden victory in Iraq -- or by the end of his second term?
As Think Progress pointed out, McCain economic adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin told the New York Times yesterday that McCain would balance the budget by the end of his first term. But during a conference call with reporters yesterday, Holtz-Eakin suddenly walked it back significantly.
Not only that, but he walked it back in a way that made it seem like this was always McCain's position, and not a flip-flop: "The senator has always pledged to balance the budget by the end of his second term."
Late Update: This isn't the first time McCain has gone back and forth on this one, either. As the New York Timesnoted, McCain promised back in February to balance the budget during his first term, but then changed it to the second term in April.
Here at TPM we've been chronicling some of the more ridiculous reporting on the presidential election that's been produced by the Associated Press.
But now we think we've found the most Pulitzer-worthy AP effort yet. Gaze upon this headline and subhed -- the AP actually did a poll of pet owners and found that people with animals prefer McCain!
In poll of pet owners, McCain tops Obama
Pet owners find McCain with his house full of animals more appealing than the petless Obama
Yes, this is a real AP article. Now check this out from the body of the story...
From George Washington's foxhounds Drunkard and Tipsy to George W. Bush's terriers Barney and Miss Beazley, pets are a longtime presidential tradition for which the presumed Republican nominee seems well prepared, with more than a dozen.
Democratic candidate Barack Obama, on the other hand, doesn't have a pet, though he has promised his daughters a dog after the election, win or lose.
"From an image standpoint, nothing humanizes a candidate more than seeing him lovingly dote on his pet or toss a ball around on the White House lawn," says American Kennel Club spokeswoman Lisa Peterson.
An AP-Yahoo News poll found that pet owners favor McCain over Obama 42 percent to 37 percent, with dog owners particularly in McCain's corner.
"I think a person who owns a pet is a more compassionate person -- caring, giving, trustworthy. I like pet owners," said Janet Taylor of Plymouth, Mass.
We're not sure what our favorite thing is here. Is it that last quote? Is it the fact that the subhed called the Illinois Senator "petless Obama"? Is it the fact that the AP, which presumably knew at the outset that Obama was "petless" and was thus likely to score lower than McCain, conducted this poll at all?
How's this for hopelessness in the House GOP ranks: A Republican Congressman is not only predicting losses in this election and futures ones -- he's also saying it would be a good thing!
"I'm of the position that we really need to clean house in this Republican Party," Nevada Republican Dean Heller told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "And I think the next couple of election cycles are going to do that."
Heller isn't all doom and gloom, though. He thinks the Republicans will get the majority back within a decade.
Hmmm. This, from John McCain this morning, isn't going to help McCain overcome his large disadvantage among voters who cite the economy as a leading concern...
McCain was asked if he believes we're in a recession, and here's the crux of his answer:
"If we're technically in a recession or not, I would imagine that we are, but the major thing is, Americans are hurting, and Americans don't like it and they think the country's in the wrong direction."
What you have here is McCain's political problem in a nutshell. If he acknowledges that the country's in a recession, then he has to explain why he's basically offering a continuation of Bush's economic policies. If he doesn't, he looks out of touch with Americans' economic pain. Here he tries to split the difference.
On this score, my favorite quote from this interview might be this one: "Eighty-some percent of the American people think the country's on the wrong track. Approval ratings of Congress, I saw one poll 12 percent, the lowest in 40 years they've been taking these polls."
No mention of Bush's approval numbers. Only those of the Dem Congress. Good one!
A key new hire in Obamaland: His campaign announces that they've hired Dana Singiser, who was Hillary's director of women's outreach, to help win the female vote.
It's an important move, because the McCain campaign has already begun to work overtime to win over disaffected Hillary supporters, particularly blue collar women, and Singiser, who was also a top aide to Howard Dean in 2004, obviously knows this demographic as well as anyone.
There's no real evidence yet that this demographic is really at risk for Obama, of course. What will prevent this from changing is a successful effort by the Obama team to cut through the fog and persuade women what a McCain presidency would really mean for them -- and Singiser will be central to that campaign.
Check out the new ad from Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mark Begich, who has managed to run about even in the polls against scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Ted Stevens in this deep-red state, where Democrats usually aren't competitive in Congressional races.
The ad accomplishes two main goals for the Alaska Dems: It introduces Begich to voters in a positive way -- and subtly reminds people of Stevens' personal scandals:
Begich says how he's made all his finances public, so the people can know what he's up to. "But it's not that way in Washington, DC," Begich says. "It's time to end the secret deals for special interests, and the special favors for elected officials."
The Obama campaign is quickly striking back at the RNC's spot on energy policy, airing an ad of their own that goes after John McCain.
The ad will run in the same four swing states as the RNC's spot -- Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- and rebuts the GOP's accusation that Obama doesn't have an energy plan in two ways: Explaining what Obama's policies actually are, and tying John McCain to the unpopular President Bush.
Check it out:
"McCain and Bush support a drilling plan that won't produce a drop of oil for seven years," the announcer says. "McCain will give more tax breaks to big oil. He's voted with Bush 95% of the time."
Here's an advance look at the new ad that Health Care for America Now -- the consortium of progressives, unions, and think tanks that's planning a $40 million ad campaign to call for universal health care -- is planning to unveil today at a noon press conference...
The group, which is being promoted by Elizabeth Edwards, is planning a hugely ambitious campaign that includes more ads like the above, organizers in 52 cities, Op eds in big broadsheets, and even an organizer placed in the districts of every Blue Dog Dem who might be resistant to supporting universal health care. The initial ad buy is $1.5 million.
Here at TPM we've been asking whether the national political press will take on John McCain over his economic hocus-pocus, such as his "plan" to balance the budget by 2013.
Well, today's New York Times comes through today with a double-barreled shot at McCain, publishing one piece pointing out that McCain's economic policies have slithered all over the ideological map, and a second piece noting that his balanced-budget promise is, well, complete horse-bleep.
The pieces are written in polite Times-speak, but they make the point pretty effectively. Too bad neither one is on the paper's front page, but we'll take what we can get.
John McCain's new TV ad, which will be airing on national cable and in targeted swing states, offers us a one-minute encapsulation of McCain's message: He was shot down, bled for his country, and now offers real change instead of the empty promises offered by Barack Obama.
Here's the ad:
"John McCain doesn't always tell us what we hope to hear. Beautiful words cannot make our lives better," the announcer says. "But a man who has always put his country and her people before self, before politics, can. Don't hope for a better life. Vote for one."
John McCain himself is taking up the Republican charge that Barack Obama has flip-flopped on Iraq, an effort to change the dialogue on an issue that has done a lot to drag the GOP down in recent years.
Here's McCain appearing this morning on Fox News, where the hosts dutifully set up the talking points for him:
"Oh I think there's been definitely shifts in position," McCain said. "One of them is Iraq, and I will be -- wait and see what Senator Obama has to say after he returns after meeting for the first time seeking a face to face sit-down briefing from General Petraeus and visiting in over 900 days. And I'll be interested in seeing what he has to say when he returns."
WSJ: Clinton's Convention Role Still Being Negotiated The Wall St. Journalreports that negotiations are still ongoing over a serious issue for the Democratic convention: Will Barack Obama be nominated unanimously, or will Hillary Clinton's name be put to a vote in order to not alienate her supporters? "There's nothing symbolically wrong to putting her name in," said Donna Brazile, but the danger is that an overly-enthusiastic reception would make Obama look like he hadn't unified the party.
Obama In Red State Of Georgia Today
Barack Obama will continue his efforts to win red states with a visit today to Powder Springs, Georgia, where he will hold a town hall on economic issues. Georgia used to be one of the Democratic-leaning states in the South, but has turned sharply Republican over the last six years with a GOP takeover of the governorship, both Senate seats and the state legislature.
McCain Courting Latino Voters Today
John McCain will be speaking today to the League of United Latin American Citizens convention in Washington, a part of his campaign's effort to improve the Republican Party's standing among Latino voters. "When you take the solemn stroll along that wall of black granite on the national Mall, it is hard not to notice the many names such as Rodriguez, Hernandez, and Lopez that so sadly adorn it," McCain will say, according to pre-released excerpts.
NYT: Obama Making Headway With Big-Money Donors, Too The New York Timesreports that Barack Obama's fundraising prowess is expanding beyond his small-donor base now that he's won the nomination. The campaign took in $5 million at a Hollywood fundraiser ten days ago, and last night the candidate was in Atlanta for a fundraiser that carried a minimum $2,300 ticket price.
Union Leader Challenges Obama To McCain's Town Halls The New Hampshire Union Leader, the largest newspaper in this swing state, is joining in on John McCain's town-hall challenge to Barack Obama. "If Sen. Obama would meet the president of Iran without pre-conditions, he can surely find time to meet with Sen. McCain and New Hampshire voters," the Republican-friendly newspaper declares in this morning's editorial.
Former Clinton Spokesman Joins Fox News
Howard Wolfson, who served as Hillary Clinton's top campaign spokesman throughout her roller-coaster of a campaign, has joined Fox News as a contributor/commentator. "It's a huge audience, and it is important to have a strong, progressive voice on the network," Wolfson told the New York Times.
Two Republican Congressman from Florida, brothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, could both be in serious fights to hold on to their districts, according to new polling.
The polling from Bendixen and Associates, a Florida-based firm that specializes in surveying areas with large percentages of Spanish-speakers, finds Lincoln ahead of Democratic candidate Raul Martinez by a 41%-37% margin, within the ±5% margin of error. Mario leads Dem candidate Joe Garcia by 44%-39%, also with a ±5% margin of error.
Both brothers have had pretty easy rides to re-election during their time in Congress, but this year might just be different.
In yet another sign of the disarray gripping GOP ranks, a top Republican in New York is now flatly stating that the party is such a mess that they are very likely to lose a key House seat in the state.
The race in question is that wacky contest we've been posting about here regularly -- the battle to take over the open seat of Vito Fossella, who announced his retirement after a personal scandal.
"The overall lay of the land is that the Republican Party in Staten Island is a great big mess," said former Rep. Guy Molinari, an elder statesman among Staten Island Republicans, when I called to check in on the state of the race. "It's shameful and embarrassing to people like myself, who've been active since -- actually decades."
Terry McAuliffe was obviously one of Hillary's most aggressive and high-profile advocates during the primary, but now McAuliffe is really doing his part to help Obama get elected.
We hear McAuliffe will be the main attraction at a unity event for Obama this Thursday, along with Rep. Artur Davis, a top Obama supporter. A source forwards us the invite...
The event is meant to get lawyers and other young professionals who backed Hillary to swing behind Obama -- it's being organized by a bunch of pro-Hillary groups, such as Young Lawyers for Hillary and Young Professionals for Hillary.
Separately, today's Chicago Sun Times caught a glimpse of McAuliffe in Aspen, where he went out of his way to reassure a table-full of Obama supporters: ''We're all on the same team now! This election is too important.''
Just think: Terry McAuliffe, transformed into a lean, mean, unity machine...
This appearance by McCain at a town-hall today is just weird. Check out our highlight reel...
What's up with that giggle?
One thing that hasn't really entered the media narrative of this race is that McCain just isn't a very good candidate. We've seen a bit of this, but despite the fact that this time around the guy with the candidate skills is the Democrat, and the stiff one is the Republican, there's just no way McCain's stump struggles will ever get nearly the level of attention that Al Gore and John Kerry's deficiencies got.
Woah -- we think we're not alone in saying we didn't see this one coming.
Jim Webb -- the perfect on-paper Vice President for Obama and a target of much Veep-oriented speculation -- just put out a statement removing himself as a candidate entirely. From Webb...
"Last week I communicated to Senator Obama and his presidential campaign my firm intention to remain in the United States Senate, where I believe I am best equipped to serve the people of Virginia and this country. Under no circumstances will I be a candidate for Vice President."
We're not sure what the back-story is here, but we're def going to try to find out. Webb's full statement after the jump.
Two of Barack Obama's top surrogates just offered a pretty strong response to the RNC's new round of ads attacking Obama on energy policy: This only encourages his supporters to donate more.
On a conference call with reporters this afternoon, Governor Jennifer Granholm of Michigan and Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio said that they were not worried about Obama's decision to ask donors not to help out with independent expenditure efforts, noting that he has enough supporters to fight back on his own.
"Because Barack Obama has so many small donors," Brown said, "these kinds of ads are just gonna make them want to participate that much more and send another $25 a week, instead of just the $25 a week they were sending."
The McCain campaign has responded to our request for clarification of its plan to take all the money saved by victory in Iraq and Afghanistan and devote all that booty to balancing the budget.
Yes, that does appear to be the McCain camp's plan. As Josh noted early this morning, a policy paper on McCain's economic proposals contains this surprising nugget:
The McCain administration would reserve all savings from victory in the Iraq and Afghanistan operations in the fight against Islamic extremists for reducing the deficit. Since all their costs were financed with deficit spending, all their savings must go to deficit reduction.
Since this clearly demands some sort of clarification, I checked in with the McCain camp. Here's what McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers sent me:
It's pretty straightforward, as we win, costs will go down with a smaller footprint over time, and those savings will go to deficit reduction. It's really the logical extension of Senator McCain's position as articulated in the 2013 speech. Achieving success in Iraq would obviously lead to reduced expenditures on the effort.
Since President McCain's imminent victory in Iraq is now a foregone conclusion, it's naturally also a foregone conclusion that the savings we reap from our victory will lead to resounding success in the budget-deficit reduction department, too.
Last week we brought you the news that well-known liberal blogger Brian Beutler was shot three times in D.C. and underwent surgery to remove his spleen. He is expected to undergo a full recovery.
Now TPM alum Spencer Ackerman, a Beutler pal, has set up a Brian Beutler Medical Relief Fund to help him cope with the financial costs of recovery.
You can donate by going right here and clicking where it says "donate."
The McCain campaign continues to push an outright falsehood: That Obama flip-flopped on Iraq.
On a conference call with reporters a few moments ago, a senior McCain surrogate, Steve Forbes, recited a litany of things that Obama has supposedly flip-flopped on, and said that Obama had "changed his mind" on troop withdrawals from Iraq.
This, of course, is false. All Obama said on Friday was that he would "continue to refine" his Iraq policies -- and what's more, he reiterated at a second presser that day that his 16-month withdrawal timetable was not subject to refinement.
The McCain campaign's efforts to work the flip-flop narrative into the dialog got a big assist from the truly awful reporting we already saw on Obama's comments. Nor are there any signs that the press will challenge the McCain camp's latest misrepresentation of what he said.
Will Obama ultimately shift his position on the timing of withdrawal? Anything is possible. But it just isn't true to say that Obama has "changed his mind" on Iraq.
Yet another basis for comparing Obama with John F. Kennedy?
This morning it was announced that Obama would be moving his convention acceptance to Invesco Field, a football stadium that holds 76,000 people. The last person to do this was -- you guessed it -- the nation's 35th president, who delivered his 1960 acceptance speech as the Dem nominee at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum:
At about one minute and twenty seconds in, the camera pulls out to a wide shot that gives you a sense of just how grandiose the setting for JFK's speech was -- and how grandiose Obama's chosen venue may prove, too.
This line from a top McCain adviser, in a Politico article on Obama's efforts to convince the electorate that he's American through and through, is unintentionally funny and revealing:
"We don't want to talk about his patriotism and character," said McCain adviser Charlie Black. "We concede that he's a patriot and person of good character. This is about big issues."
It kind of says it all that to this senior McCain campaign hand, acknowledging that Obama is patriotic is a concession.
It's official: The Democratic convention's organizing committee has just sent out a press release confirming that Barack Obama will be giving his acceptance speech in Denver at Invesco Field, a football stadium that holds 76,000 people, instead of the official convention hall at the Pepsi Center.
Obama previously spoke to a rally of about this size in the run-up to the Oregon primary, so there's no doubt he could fill the stadium for his acceptance speech. The size of the event will also spotlight just how wide his support is, with a crowd size that is nearly unheard of in American politics.
But what if it rains? We're checking to see whether the stadium has a dome -- more on this in a sec.
Obama Will Deliver Acceptance Speech At Football Stadium
The Obama campaign is expected to announce this week that the candidate will deliver his acceptance speech outside of the Democratic convention itself, a plan first floated late last week. The speech will be given at Denver's Invesco Field, which holds 76,000 people -- a stunning audience size for an American political gathering. (Late Update: The convention's organizing committee has just put out a press release officially announcing Invesco Field as the site of Obama's speech.)
Candidates To Discuss The Economy Today
The economy will dominate today's campaigning, with Barack Obama visiting North Carolina to propose a second economic stimulus package. John McCain will be in Denver to pitch his own jobs plan, hoping to hold on to a state that has historically voted Republican but is trending Democratic very quickly.
McCain Camp Hires New Political Director
John McCain's campaign reorganization has resulted in the hiring of a new political director -- a role that was previously absent entirely from the campaign. The campaign has hired Mike DuHaime, who previously worked as Rudy Giuliani's campaign manager.
McCain Could Have Convention Problems With Conservative Activists
John McCain could face some friction with hard-line conservative activists at the St. Paul convention, as the party sets about rewriting the largely-symbolic party platform in order to remove references to President Bush and reshape it as McCain's official agenda. "Our job is to make sure that the grass roots continue to have a say," said Eagle Forum executive director Jessica Echard.
CQ: Most Vulnerable House Seats Are All GOP
In a further sign of just how bad things are for the House Republicans, CQsays that the top five seats most likely to switch control are all open Republican-held seats. The seats are currently held by: Vito Fossella of New York, Jerry Weller of Illinois, Rick Renzi of Arizona, Tom Davis of Virginia, and Jim Walsh of New York.
Senate Dem Incumbents Flush With Cash Roll Callreports that Senate Democrats have found themselves in an interesting quandary: Nearly all their incumbents up for election this year are considered safe, and collectively they have more than $50 million on hand. Much of that money can be transferred to the DSCC or to other candidates, thus adding to the party' overall infrastructure -- but for now, many of them are sitting on it.
New RNC Ad: McCain For "Balance" On Energy, Obama "The Party Line"
Here's the Republican National Committee's new ad on energy policy, which is airing in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The ad pitches John McCain as a moderate who has a balanced approach to energy, while Barack Obama is depicted as a hardline Democrat who doesn't have a plan:
Pro-War Ad: Victory In Iraq Is "Change We Can Believe In"
Here's the new ad from Vets For Freedom, a pro-Iraq War group, declaring that gains in Iraq brought on by the surge are "change we can believe in," an obvious hit against Barack Obama's calls for withdrawal. The spot will air in Ohio, New Mexico and Virginia, with an initial ad buy of $1 million:
Neither Candidate On The Trail Today
Both presumptive nominees are taking the day off from the campaign trail. After a busy July 4 and more events on Saturday, Barack Obama is spending the day in Chicago with no public events. John McCain has been taking his Independence Day weekend off.
Obama: I'm "Puzzled" By Reaction To Iraq Comments
Barack Obama told reporters yesterday that his statement about refining his policy of withdrawing from Iraq was not in any way inconsistent with his previous statements. "I was a little puzzled by the frenzy that I set off with what I thought was a pretty innocuous statement," Obama said on a plane flight.
NYT: Dem Convention Planning Beset By Delays And Rising Costs The New York Timeshas an interesting article on the planning of the Democratic convention -- profiling an organizational wreck that has gone over-budget and under-performed its fundraising goals. The DNC has since blasted out a statement from Howard Dean and convention CEO Leah Daughtry, disputing the article's characterizations: "In fact we are ahead of the game."
Hewitt Pushing Use Of Obama's Audiobook
Right-wing talker Hugh Hewitt has been promoting a new method of going after Barack Obama, which could find its way into third-party ads: Using clips from the audiobook of Dreams From My Father, in which the candidate himself narrates his youthful indiscretions and identity crises. "It turns out to be very jarring to many ears to hear Obama talking about his youthful adventures, his attitudes on race," Hewitt said.
