Will There Even Be Any Scary Right-Wing Groups Swift-Boating Obama?
The Politico has a terrific story today reporting that there really isn't any frightening apparatus of right-wing independent groups gearing up to Swift Boat Obama -- even though the specter of such efforts is central to Obama's justification for opting out of the public financing system.
Indeed, the story reports that the super-rich oil baron who was the lead funder of such efforts against John Kerry is not going to shell out a dime this time around:
T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oilman who gave $3 million to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and who numerous GOP sources said was being looked to as a funding source this year, is sitting the race out."He is not giving anything to 527s involved in the presidential race this cycle, and has communicated that...to Republican strategists and operatives," said Pickens spokesman Jay Rosser.
The dynamic on the right is interesting. I'm told by people involved in trying to launch such efforts that the big GOP money-people are genuinely confused by the anti-527 noises John McCain has been making. They don't know whether to bankroll such efforts, because they can't tell whether McCain would tacitly approve, or whether doing so would actually gain them nothing from McCain.
Meanwhile, others are trying to decide whether they even care what McCain thinks, and are weighing putting money into them simply to stop Obama, regardless of what McCain has said.
A half a billion sounds like a lot, and is by historical standards. On the other hand, a few days' Iraq expenditures seems like a small price to pay to decide whether we might not want to change course a tad. Why not a billion?
June 20, 2008 9:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
oops, wrong place
June 20, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, no, of course there aren't going to be any 527s going after Obama in the fall. Who ever said such a thing? They just can't tell what McCain wants so they're not going to do anything!
June 20, 2008 9:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well played
June 20, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they're just not tipping their hands. Or perhaps the right has exhausted itself.
Either way, Obama's opting out is a smart deterrent. It fits with the gun/knife comment he made the other day -- now the other side knows for sure that if they try anything, anytime between now and Election Day, he'll have plenty of resources to fight back.
June 20, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Inactivity by Repub 527s might result in continued carping by the right that there was no reason for Obama to opt out of public financing after all.
As Rhett Butler so fabulously put it, "Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn."
Obama's fundraising strategy is right for America and I hope that we'll see in an Obama administration a push to make his way of raising funds the only way to do so. And it's time to get rid of 527s so that there aren't any potential mind games --- like the one mentioned her --- to be played.
Meanwhile, we'll use our $500 million to $1 billion to carpet bomb McCain and put a new kind of leader in the White House.
June 20, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have contributed to Ob. I have been waiting for his email to his 1,500,000 contributors asking for another donation - but nada. I get my phone calls but I thought he would do a direct email and ask for funds.
June 30, 2008 9:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Greg, IT'S JUNE!!!
Had you heard about the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in June of 2004? Because I sure hadn't. It was August/September when it hit.
June 20, 2008 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
true enough. good point. that said, I think there is genuine confusion about what to do.
June 20, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps, but there's plenty of time to sort that out. Obama's move (which was entirely predicted) will certainly light a fire under these groups to get their act together.
June 20, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even if there is confusion now ... in a few months I don't doubt that there will be people more interested in keeping Obama OUT of the White House than getting John McCain IN. We've already see it in small forms (viral rumors, stupid buttons) - even bigger forms from the TN Republicans. The deluge from the anti-Obama forces is coming ... there is no confusion about that. And, I think the Obama campaign is smart to predict and prepare for this reality.
June 20, 2008 10:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
"there will be people more interested in keeping Obama OUT of the White House than getting John McCain IN."
They're starting already! Has anyone checked out the RNC webpage? Its all anti-Obama. Very hard to find any McCain stuff there...
June 20, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect they're more confused by the utter failure of the "Freedom's Watch" attacks associating congressional candidates with Obama and Wright. McCain's occasional rumbles about how he doesn't approve of such attacks (but can't do anything about them, of course) provide a handy way to blame him for their failure to act, but these are money men -- it seems far more likely that they are looking for evidence that it would be a good investment (in particular, that it would be any more effective than anonymous email slurs, which cost nothing.)
June 20, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting point. Maybe they're waiting for Obama to spool out some rope before they try to hang him with it in the fall.
June 20, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Extremely unfortunate choice of cliche there.....
June 20, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, it's rather apt in that we're talking about groups with racist motivations.
June 20, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, the Swiftboat Bottom-feeders didn't drop their first ad until early August, but they first went public via press conference in early May. The fact that we haven't heard a peep out of any 527 is pretty eyebrow raising..
June 20, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the Politico article, it says that Karl Rove is actively seeking out funders for such a 527. This should be the take-home message of the Politico article: Rove Seeks Smear Group Funders.
June 20, 2008 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is the "test marketing" phase where rumors and assertions will be released narrowly and the effect on voter sentiment monitored by demographic. By the time the 527's roll in, there will be state-by-state scripts to follow. Media buys, email campaigns and faux-grassroots spin-ups will be coordinated to minimize message overlap and reach crescendo in the weeks leading up to the election.
Any impact of coordinated attacks launched now is doubly blunted, in that 1) Obama has already been "introduced" to much of the country and a media narrative established 2) the election is a good ways off. Both primacy and recency work to the disadvantage of Republicans at the moment.
The smart move is to play possum and develop a compelling Obama "anti-brand" that is thematically coherent, even if its component parts are based in falsehood. The Fight the Smears "re-branding" effort is likely to meet with some success as a countermeasure; the full measure of Obama's success will come with an effective re-write of McCain's recent history as a narrative of inconsistency that is philosophically disjointed at best and confused, soulless pandering at worst. He needs to sap the hard-right enthusiasm and moderate curiosity, possibly even at the expense of vigorous self-defense in the face of character assassination.
June 20, 2008 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Strangely, there is no mention in the article of, of all people, Houston realestate mogul Bob Perry, financer of swiftboaters in 2004 and of deceptive massive robocalling during the 2006 midterms.
There are so many of these dirty organizations, a single article is unlikely to be able to keep track of them all.
June 20, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Better to be fully funded to take them on, rather than assuming you will not need to. If they do not emerge, Senator Obama will not have lost anything, but should they emerge, he will have fortified his defenses to combat them.
In politics, it is always folly to assume that the opponent is going to play fair.
June 20, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Nation, it's no secret that one of John McCain's biggest challenges as a candidate is distinguishing himself from President Bush. I'm not sure why he's so eager to spurn the president's supporters. I mean, that's walking away from almost 29% of the American electorate, and nearly half of the Bush children [on screen: a photo of Jenna Bush, along with an article that suggests she may not vote Republican in the upcoming election]. But he's so different from Bush already. The only issues they agree on are education, immigration, Iraq, abortion, Supreme Court judges, Social Security, tax breaks for the wealthy, wire-tapping, trade, health care, the Middle East, same-sex marriage and Medicare." --Stephen Colbert
June 20, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Smart strategic move with a tactical disadvantage. We should expect nothing less from our nominee. You do not voluntarily disarm when you have an advantage, unless there is some larger advantage available in voluntarily disarming.
If McCain had the real choice, do you think he'd accept public financing? I remember this discussion from 2004, with the roles reversed. I had the same opinion then (why should Bush voluntarily disarm?).
Is there any question that Obama is probablya superior chess player? Or, if not him, Axelrod?
June 20, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
"genuinely confused" is how I think a lot of people feel about John McCain's campaign.
June 20, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
And I would include McCain himself in your group!
June 20, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
There will be plenty of "swift-boating" going on this fall. Don't believe that the GOP will play fair or will find ethics. The are laying low and will launch a ton of ads and gimmics this fall. They will go after Obama hard and with a huge ad campaign funded by the 527's...it's sure bet!
June 20, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
What anti-527 noise from McCain? As far as I've heard he hasn't come out against any of it, especially not forcefully. The most he did was to say he disagreed with an ad the Tennessee GOP was running, and that obviously wasn't even a 527.
June 20, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not a surprise that an oilman would spend 3 million to help get Bush elected but is less invested this time. What's interesting is that the groups had geared up to fight Hillary, including Citizens United essentially breaking their bank to create Hillary the Movie. Nice move! But I agree with the commenter above that they will emerge at some point, hopefully much less funded than in 2004.
June 20, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
What's really interesting in the article is the extent some groups are growing to distance themselves from that past behavior.
It's hard not to read that they are worried about the (personal/financial) consequences this time, and hard for me not to be encouraged by that worry.
June 20, 2008 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe they can tell a loser when they smell one?
In 2004 they made a difference. This year, all signs are they can't.
Hey, why throw throw away all that perfectly good money? Clever players know when to fold.
June 20, 2008 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well put.
They arsenal against Obama has already been spent, and he's still ahead.
A "fresh" round of 527 ads spewing the same garbage will get the media, this time, to join in the criticism of their "new" ads.
June 20, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's sort of the impression I get, but even less that they know McCain is a loser and more that they think Obama might be a big winner.
If they throw their lot in and barely lose, that's not that big a deal. If they throw their lot in and Dems win everything big, we're talking national sea change, then they're screwed.
And they sound to me like their pretty nervous about being screwed, going so far as to distance a bit from past transgressions.
June 20, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good point.
The McSame cause is lost, but lots of down-ticket races are at stake.
June 20, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
If I was a conservative millionaire, that's where I would put my money -- senate and congressional races. I think lots of GOP bigwigs realize the presidential race is all but lost.
June 20, 2008 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Politico article is disinformation placed as a justification by GOP surrogates in an attempt to make Obama look like a flip flopper by neutering part of his justification for opting out of "public financing". This is a disingenuous action which other posters have already acknowledged.
We would be foolish not to realize that there is an underlying current of racism that exiists in this country, even among some in the Democratic party. To think that some disgruntled, mean- spirited Republicans,Republican surrogates or 527 groups aren't going to come up with some devious way in which to funnel that underlying racism against a very intelligent, charismatic person of color is naive.
Politico = tool
527's = evil
"existing public financing process" = broken
Obama's opting out = REAL publc financing
June 20, 2008 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
It certainly sounds like disinformation, none too subtle.
June 20, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
T. Boon Pickens has got to be the best name for a Texas oil man ever.
June 20, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I suspect as the election nears, if it appears Obama is significantly ahead in polls, McCain (if he hasn't already) will unleash the 527s in a move comparable to Hillary's "kitchen sink" strategy, hopefully with similar success.
June 20, 2008 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's June, for crying out loud!
Do political observers expect a 527 to stand up and shout "Hey, we're gonna swift boat Obama!!"--giving Obama advance notice?
This is one of the sillier analyses (and I'm not talking about you, Greg) I've seen.
June 20, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Greg,
If T Boone Pickens is really not going to do anything, then why did John Kerry's crewmates just attack him today?
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/06/20/t_boone_show_us_the_money/
Swiftboating is not an issue in Kerry's re-election campaign in Mass. The GOP Senate candidate already said he wouldn't touch it. So what gives here? I am intrigued. And, frankly, I am not sure I believe Pickens or anyone in this article that they aren't going to fund another smear campaign against a Democrat.
June 20, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bad reporting Greg.
You ever heard of "Freedom's Watch" 527? The one that is being advised by Karl Rove? The one that is expected to have about $200 million to play with?
June 20, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
However, in the original Political article, Freedom's Watch says they won't be working toward the presidential race:
Asked if was still the intent of Freedom’s Watch to stay out of the presidential fray, Carl Forti, the group’s director, flatly said: “Yes.”
June 20, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait, wait. I'm confused. Greg already told us it's a "terrific story."
June 20, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because, of course, if Pickens WAS going to fund a group that was going to do its level best to destroy Obama through lying slander, he'd say so if some reporter asked him. So if he says he's not going to do that, well, that pretty much settles the question.
And of course, Pickens is the ONLY rich guy that wants the President to be the guy whose solution for any problem whatsoever is "cut taxes." So it's Pickens or nobody, and Pickens said it wouldn't be him. So there you go. I'm glad we got THAT sorted out.
June 20, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Elephant in the 527 room, than no one appears to notice:
Right Wing Talk Radio:
It is a daily all pervasive form of 527 swift boating, and Senator Obama has to counter all of that. Add FUX SPEWS, to the list of similar swift boating foes that he also has to defend against on a daily basis.
June 20, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
just fyi, here's a factcheck.org article regarding mccain's financing and obama's claim it's all lobbyists and PACs...
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/obamas_lame_claim_about_mccains_money.html
June 20, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
liam:
Thank you. Thank you. I had been trying to figure out what was troubling about the fairly uncritical posting (they said=it is true).
The attempt to name and shape public perception of Obama (or, I should say, the "Obamas") is taking a more diffuse form than the perception project against Kerry in 04.
For example, talk radio is everywhere - and nowhere. Language, frames etc., move in-and-out of AM radio, cable news (CNN is especially uncritical in its adoption of talk radio's/Fox TV's frames), blogs (even liberal ones), dinner conversations, WaPo, NYTimes - and so on. Each site stands alone - but together are mutually-reinforcing.
Case: This week's story about Michelle Obama is everywhere, untethered from one particular source. Even if some of the origins of the offensive language can be traced to Fox, the responses which keep the offensiveness alive (primarily because of the cable news insistence on "on the one hand and on the other hand" style of "reporting)are everywhere. So: I did a local AM/Black talk show segment (Atlanta)yesterday about Michelle Obama. Even in the dynamics of opposition (AM Black radio)the original characterization (the Obamas as "foreigners among us")is kept alive. NOT to mention that the possibility of the stuff sticking is helped by pre-existing race/gender stereotypes already "out there and everywhere." (unlike Kerry as a lying Vietnam Vet). The work of 527s is 50% done because of the history of race/gender in this country.
So there may be no SwiftBoat press conference. Who needs it??? Which is why it is important not to merely "repeat" - but to critically report.
Ah: For those who poo-pooed postmodernism, that stuff's kind of useful at times.
In other words: Obama: Forget them (I was tempted to type another "F" word). Do what you need to do, and I'm sending my little bit of money as soon as I finish this too-long comment.
Obama's candidacy promises many things - but HE has never promised to be stupid.
June 20, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's likely the 527s and their handlers were not showing their hands in the hopes of lulling Obama into taking public financing. Secondly, even if that scenario was unlikely, by waiting they could criticise him (as they have done) more easily for changing his decision on financing. I imagine it was all orchestrated and we will see plenty of 527s come August and September.
June 30, 2008 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink