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Quinnipiac: Obama Ahead In Florida, Ohio And Pennsylvania
New polling from Quinnipiac has some very bad news for John McCain, with him trailing in all three of the largest swing states -- even Florida:
Florida
Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 43%
Margin of error: ±2.6%
Ohio
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 42%
Margin of error: ±2.6%Pennsylvania
Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%
Margin of error: ±2.5%
According to our Election Central Poll Tracker, this is the first poll ever in which Obama has led McCain in Florida. Obama previously had a lot of trouble here thanks to the primary controversies that kept him out of the state, but this poll shows he's overcoming that difficulty rather quickly. Even if part of it is a post-primary boost, it would still seem to say that any ill will from the primaries is over with.
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This is great news (even if it isn't reflective of the the outcome). This plays to Obama's strengths in terms of organization and money management. McCain will have to fend off Obama, not only in these expensive states (see Hillary's current debt for reference).
Add NV, NM, CO, VA and NC to the list and it becomes evident that a good ground game is going to make the difference. A nice set of young legs helps too.
June 18, 2008 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama can play this new Offshore Drilling issue properly, he might be able to put FL in his column permanently.
June 18, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, excellent point, as always. He has to inform the public with facts, like the gas tax bs. If we drilled in anbar and off-shore it would take ten years for the oil to come on line and the impact on the price of gas would be negligible. Also, another interesting fact is that there is something like 60 million acres or so of land in the us that is drillable, but the companies aren't drilling. Why? They want the price to go higher so that they make more caaaaasssshhhh! Facts over spin.
June 18, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, he needs to nail this hard and repeatedly, just like the bullshit gas tax pander scheme:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-scher/offshore-drilling-comes-u_b_107625.html
June 18, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link. I really wish, and I know its a pipe dream, that the gd, freaking, right-wing media would be all over this crap. It really is gd frustrating.
The only people that would benefit from off-shore drilling and drilling in anwar would be the oil companies and their execs, once again. The american people would not realize any benefit whatsoever from the drilling. There isn't enough oil to make a difference. Pathetic.
June 18, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
...but you can't keep making the "it'll take 10 years" argument. Clinton said the same thing 14 years ago, we would've been online for 4 years by now. How long will it take for a new nuclear plant to come online?...so we don't build it? How long will it take for fuel cell technology to become affordable and efficient?...so we don't invest in it? Comprehensive is just that...allow states to determine if they will allow offshore exploration and production in their area, build more nuclear plants and invest in future energy technology. It's gonna take more than 10 years to eliminate the neccessity for fossil fuels.
June 18, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read the link by LuxVeritas and there's your answer.
I think it would be better to invest in detroit to make cars like the Honda hydrogen car that's being produced, along with building a hydrogen infrastructure. That would solve the oil problem, big time.
F*ck the drilling, we need to get off of our "oil addiction" as the king said.
June 18, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
I did read the link before I commented...Fuel cell technology is a great idea...it's just not here now...you can't just blink your eyes and nod your head and make oil dependence disappear. There will be a change over period, one that has already begun. However, between then and now Obama's position is...? McCain's is use our resources, lessen dependence on foreign sources on the way to the new technology.
June 18, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is not enough oil off-shore or in anwar to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. It won't have any impact.
I do agree that you can't blink your eyes and change the situation, but drilling isn't the answer.
By the way, I would reverse engineer honda's car if I were detroit. It's obviously being produced and sounds like an excellent vehicle. For decades the japanese reverse engineered american products to get a jump, why not return the favor.
Also, other sources of energy, including nuclear, should be immediately started up to reduce dependence on oil in general.
June 18, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like your idea! Reverse engineer sounds perfect.
Now, if only Detroit will listen.
June 18, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who killed the electric car?
June 18, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you propose we make the oil companies produce more product to bring the price down? Or stop the type of speculating that drives the price up?
June 18, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
That was a thoughtful answer, btw.
June 18, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Doh! Still it's a loooooong time until November, but it brought me a smile over my coffee this morning.
June 18, 2008 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
@lamont williams: you are correct, sir!!1
here's to hoping obama goes after mccain with full force and making bush-mccain the inseparable twins.
June 18, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gosh!
You me an Obama can WIN the big swing states? What happened to all those Regan democrat problems?! :(
June 18, 2008 9:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Turns out it was all baseless Clinton spin. Who'd have thought?
June 18, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
these new sets of polls with make msm heads explode everywhere today since the sky was falling last week with suburban white women. loll
pat buchannan will be obsolete aftera ll!!!
June 18, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, they'll just tut-tut and assure us that Obama's big fall is yet to come and they haven't really released their big guns on him yet, and you know "anything can happen between now and November"...
McCain is going to be increasingly running scared as the summer goes on. It ain't gonna be pretty. :)
June 18, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
So all this talk about Obama's "electability" was utter BS? Who would have thought...
June 18, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I told you to not make a big deal out of his poor Florida numbers because I knew as soon as he was able to campaign there and put the primary behind him he'd take off, and he has.
Ready for a tsunami in November? ;)
June 18, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
But but, what about those regular lunch pail workers? Those hard-working, white, hard-working voters?
June 18, 2008 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you look at the poll's internals, you can see big problems for Obama... There are always problems for Obama. He could win 49 states and the pundits would point to his Utah problem.
June 18, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are right, they need something to talk about for the next 5 months and a blowout in the making isn't very good for them which is what this is already shaping up to be (knock on wood).
It's like the Celtics/Lakers game last night; they didn't really have anything to talk about for the last quarter of the game because Boston was up by 35+ points!
The media will keep trying to pull down the expectations for Obama but hopefully not damage him too much in the public. I think they would love nothing more for Obama to have a "surprisingly" big win in November and it would make such a great story for them to write/blog/talk about.
June 18, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are soooo right!
It is the same reason we had to listen to them talk about the popular vote during the primaries once Obama had an insurmountable delegate lead after his 11 consecutive wins.
The media creates their own narrative and sticks with it no matter how distorted or misleading it is.
They need a horse race...ugh!
June 18, 2008 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are absolutely right here, sir...I mean look at the buzzing noise over the poll that shown Obama polling closer to McBush in....wait for it...Pakistan!!!
June 18, 2008 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
As the stat maven formerly known as Poblano points out over at www.fivethirtyeight.com, Obama's bounce has been bigger in the states where Hillary was polling strongest, and less in those states where he was doing well (Minnesota, for example).
But this is a huge blow to McCain. If he loses Florida and Ohio, he has no path to victory.
June 18, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
From Poblano...
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/todays-polls-618.html
"If Florida is in play, then John McCain's defense is completely broken; it was the one traditional swing state that always had looked off-limits to Obama. "
God, please protect us from overconfidence...Because I want to shout out: "Holy Landslide Batman!"
June 18, 2008 9:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
As pointed out by mr. williams, throw in the off-shore drilling issue and florida could wind up being deep blue. Mcbush is totally tone deaf, thank God!
June 18, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, this truly could go anywhere between now and November. But, just looking at where this is right now, it does reflect how truly fed up much of this nation is with Bush and his cadre. We are thoroughly ready for change and Obama needs to take us there with full confidence and authority.
June 18, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
If he is doing less well in states he was strongest that suggests there were fewer Hillary supporters to give him a big bump, no?
June 18, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
BOOM!
I love it. Let's hope he can hold on to it or maybe even build it.
June 18, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Time to start moving goalposts, McCain camp. "If Obama doesn't win the election by a convincing margin considering he much he's outspent us and how much more electoral support he has, there's a problem. Don't forget that electoral voters can change their mind!"
June 18, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can bet any amount that the MSM wont even mention these polls. it goes against everything they have been saying. I am going to watch MSNBC and the Situation Room later today to see if they mention it.
After the NC and IN primary i made up my mind that i will not put one ounce of credence into what these pundits have to say. They are simply guessing.
June 18, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Florida!!!! I'm shocked. If Obama wins Florida, it's game, set, match.
June 18, 2008 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whoo hoo!!*
*polling in June should be celebrated or mourned with the caveat that it's still freakin June. Nonetheless, I'm most excited here about Pennsylvania. I think as long as Obama holds onto MI, PA, MI, and WI he will win the White House because he's going to win in VA and CO.
June 18, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
not only must obama win florida and ohio, he must also win kentucky and west virginia. he must show his problems with working class whites are in the past. i am not sure he can do this.
June 18, 2008 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
wha??
he doesn't need to focus on winning working class whites--no Dem since 1964 has won a majority of working class whites.
if he wins PA, OH, VA, and CO then this thing is done.
June 18, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Andy's the Snark King. He's extremely subtle, so it's easy to miss.
June 18, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Brilliant! So much for the Electoral College, its more like an Un-automatic Electoral Deliberation Club. They'll come around and all vote for McCain in the end. The ballot box is more like a suggestion box.
June 18, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, that was a comment to middlenamesareseriousbusiness above???
June 18, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
i am sorry. i ment to write working, hard working, white voters.
June 18, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
did obama promise the retirees he would nuke iran? he must of.
June 18, 2008 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Question for TPMers:
Has anyone read any articles or prognostications about what we should expect the voter turnout to be from African-Americans this year (other than jsut a "big")?
What is clear is that many pollsters are using 2004 turnout models to predict turnout in 2008. They may be right and often the predicted wave of new voters (often young) doesn't materialize to the degree to change an election. But I'm wondering if anyone has attempted to make some educated guesses about the increase in AA turnout this year? Any help?
Thanks, Yoda
June 18, 2008 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's possible Poblano has done some work on that at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
June 18, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
THanks. I did find some helpful info there. But I think basically no one can predict what will happen based on previous election results because having an African-American is totally new.
What is interesting is that we can predict the impact of say 10% increase in AA voter turnout in various states.
June 18, 2008 11:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Given that this is a June poll, BUT:
I never felt Florida was out of reach - while I don't live there now, I was born there and have family stretching from the conservative north to to the Miami/Lauderdale area.
My south Fla relatives were Hillary supporters who were always willing to vote for whomever was the Democratic nominee. But the real surprise was my very conservative, white, 40-something female, Baptist cousin who wrote me early this year to ask my opinion about Obama, whom she voted for in the "primary" and will vote for in November.
And yes, Obama needs to hit hard on the offshore drilling issue as well as preservation of the Everglades. I believe McCain voted against this funding, mistakenly saying he did so because it was contained in an omnibus spending bill. I don't think this is accurate.
June 18, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think these numbers give a lot of hope.... bama just needs to stay on message, appearing as presidential as possible.
My heart literally races thinking about having a thinking President again.
When compared to the numbers in June that showed Kerry and Gore in dead heats with their republican opponants, the polls floating around give me great hope that we can win this one and win it big.
It is time for America to return to greatness.... and for us to start healing the animosity felt for our nation around the world. Barack Obama is the person to get that job done!
June 18, 2008 10:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Think about this point on the prior june polls for gore and kerry. Both gore and kerry had locked up their nominations in March. Neither gore nor kerry were getting battered on a daily basis up until the beginning of june.
Throw in the mcbush flailing and mistakes and I think mcbush has topped out on his support. Obama's numbers should gradually keep going up for a while before leveling off.
June 18, 2008 10:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Starting with the fundraisers, you'll see everyone coalescing faster if this continues. This could turn into a avalanche.
June 18, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
"I believe McCain voted against this funding, mistakenly saying he did so because it was contained in an omnibus spending bill. I don't think this is accurate."
My guess, the Republican whip gave a thumbs down to the bill so the renegade maverick voted nay.
June 18, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is amazing. Does not reflect well on Hillary, but this isn't a Greg Sargent post, so I won't "go there."
June 18, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Threatening to destroy Florida's coastline and tourism trade by allowing offshore oil drilling sure won't do much for him there.
McCain also received 2 million dollars from energy companies yesterday for taking that position.
So is that who America wants? Someone who panders to energy companies, takes their money, doesn't have a long-term plan, and cannot appreciate America's natural beauty?
I think not. Obama-Feingold 2008!
June 18, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
someone's gotta do it! :o)
June 18, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
hehehehehe..lovin" it!!...great response ami
June 18, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
AND FOR HILLARY!!!
June 18, 2008 12:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The pundits have always been a step or two or twenty behind in this election. Obama had essentially locked up the pledged delegates after the Virginia and Wisconsin landslides and it took weeks for that fact to become the CW.
June 18, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I know this is only June, and I know this could be an outlier, but....
Woo-hoo!!!! And suck it all you naysayers! Yayyyyy!!!!
Okay, back to my regularly scheduled pessimism and worry now.
June 18, 2008 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
There was no "ill will." That was made up by Clinton & her sycophants in an attempt to scare supers. Juts like the made up notion that Obama had problems with Latino voters, women voters, Jewish voters, OH & PA's white voters, big state voters, etc.
ALL GE polls show the complete and utter opposite.
The question I have is why were so many in the corp. media (and some here on the blogosphere who came into being to take down conventional wisdom, no propagate it) so willing to suspend disbelief and go with the Clinton flow on these issues when anyone looking at the polls even before the primary was over, knew they couldn't' be compared to anything related to the GE?
Ahem.
June 18, 2008 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Anyone still think that any poll showing Obama ahead in Ohio is an outlier?
))))))))))-crickets-((((((((((
June 18, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
The truth is we will get around to pumping both Anwar and off shore eventually. Neither will make a giant difference, but eventually we will drill everywhere.
That said, what we have to do is force the oil companies to show us how they can drill in an environmentally safe way. So far, despite McCain's claim to the contrary, they haven't.
Even though we can and will drill everywhere the ultimate solution is to move away from oil. I think the current bubble is speculation driven. It will burst, but peak oil has happened and gas is never going to be really cheap again. Prices might drop to $2.75-3.00 per gallon, but that is not really cheap. Once they drop, over time they will immediately climb back up and keep climbing.