Poll: Obama Vaults To 15-Point Lead Over McCain
Barack Obama might just be getting his post-primary national bounce. A new poll from Newsweek gives him a 51%-36% lead over John McCain, up from a 46%-46% tie a month ago.
Obama is helped by some key statistics. Five-five percent of respondents now call themselves Democrats or Dem-leaners, compared to only thirty-six percent Republicans and GOP-leaners. With the Democrat-on-Democrat mudslinging out the way, Obama is now able to fully enjoy that wide base of support.
Obama is doing better at this point in the game than John Kerry or Al Gore did before him, an encouraging sign for a Democratic victory. A caveat, though: Obama's lead right now is comparable to Michael Dukakis' lead back when he clinched the nomination, and he went on to lose the election.
A great poll to start the weekend.
And one to make the Repubs gnash their teeth some more.
June 20, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama won't be posing with tanks. There, he'll keep Michael Dukakis' lead.
June 20, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
As much as the wingnutz want people to believe that Obama is (take your pick) the next:
Kerry
Gore
Dukakis
Mondale
Carter
Humphrey
Stevenson
Al Smith
John Davis
Jimmy Cox
William Jennings Bryan
[what, no Geraldine Ferraro?]
Obama ain't a loser by any stretch of the imagination.
June 20, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Walker McBama opposes the Constitution. He is no champion of the people. What a sad day in America when hope is crushed by the audacity to support illegal spying.
June 20, 2008 9:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
You really do have your head up your ass, don't you.
June 21, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whattya bet Bush stages some belligerent activity to try to change the math for McC. Iran anyone?
And it won't help McC, but it'll be another fish hook that will rip a big hole when it's pulled out. Bush always leaves big messes for others to clean up. He's got another 7 months to do it.
June 20, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are already strong indications that Israel is on the verge of attacking Iran. If they do, we'll probably be participating in some fashion. Just enough to scare the bejesus out of the unwashed . . .
June 20, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
fivethirtyeight sez:
Newsweek's poll is the attention-getter, showing Barack Obama leading John McCain by 15 points. Is Barack Obama actually ahead by 15 points? Of course not. Newsweek's data tends to be fairly volatile, and we have a whole bunch of polling on both the state and national level that implies that Obama's real margin is closer to 5 points. Nevertheless, he has broken through a barrier of sorts. The last instance I can identify when a Democrat held a 15-point lead over a Republican nominee in any individual November trial heat poll is from November, 1996, when CBS News gave Bill Clinton an 18-point lead over Bob Dole on the eve of the election.
June 20, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't like the Kennedyesque logo you have. Barack Walker McBama has demonstrated today that he is no agent of change. He certainly isn't a man of the people. He craps on the Constitution just like the rest of them.
I had hope until Barack Walker McBama had the audacity to support immunity.
June 20, 2008 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is your avatar appropriately named:
"in search of a clue?"
June 21, 2008 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bam. Bam.
June 20, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
chika chika yeah!
June 20, 2008 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's pointless to make too much of a poll this early, except, as Eric correctly pointed out, as a warning to remember Dukakis and not assume anything.
Let's also be mindful that the national poll is just a curiosity. There are 51 separate elections thanks to the Electoral College (now that slavery is abolish, can we finally get rid of this thing?) so the state polls are much more telling.
Of course, it's only June for those too.
June 20, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gallup/CNN/USA Today has Obama leading, 50-44, among likely voters.
June 20, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is more likely his actual margin, since both the polls showing him just 2 points ahead, and that showing him 15 points ahead, would fall within a range of 12-16 points regarding the margin between two candidates, the range you have when you have margins of error of 3-4 points.
June 20, 2008 9:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the polling sounds good. But I'm disappointed that Obama supported the FISA compromise. Seriously disappointed. This is why I preferred John Edwards over either Obama or Clinton. And this is probably why I just can't find the Obamamaniac in me.
June 20, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
You mean your "inner Obamamaniac."
I started with Edwards too, but I put Obama on the same level as John.
Let this play out before you let disappointment get the better of your feelings.
You know Obama's with us.
June 20, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree, there is only so much Obama could do here, and we know he believes the same thing as us, it is just a matter of what is feasible. I don't like it either, but no candidate is perfect, and as much as I like Obama, I never thought I'd agree with him on every single decision. The real problem is the Republicans, and the corporate Democrats who vote with them, THOSE should be in our crosshairs, not the good guys (and gals) who want to do the right thing but don't have the votes to get it done.
I say Dodd and Obama and Feingold and the rest of them should filibuster that thing until immunity is gone, or until they decide to table the thing and let is rot for the rest of the session.
June 20, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I judge people by their actions. I now understand why Barack Walker McBama opposed the war. He had nothing at stake. Now with the chip on the line, he falls in line. Hope has been crushed by the audacity to support criminal activity in the "name" of National Security. What a sad day in America.
June 20, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Cranial, I think you're overreacting a bit prematurely. This IS NOT over. The bill has yet to pass the Senate and Obama has promised to fight to remove the immunity clause. And John Dean tonight on Olbermann seems to think there may be other avenues to pursue to take the telecoms to task.
June 20, 2008 10:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, if you judge a man by his actions, you'll realize that Obama is not McCain, in word or deed. But you don't judge a man by his actions, do you? Otherwise, you would not make such stupid equivalences.
June 21, 2008 12:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
The above was directed at Cranial.
June 21, 2008 1:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you're disappointed, call him and let him know. This is the Obama headquarters office number:
1-866-675-2008
When the automated router comes on, press '6' to speak to a live person. (Note: you'll need to call during office hours to reach a live person.)
June 20, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Go to his blog at http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hqblog and find the FIRST post and add your comments about FISA.
His cave on FISA is not acceptable. I will vote for him, but cash stays in my pocket now.
June 20, 2008 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to absolutely trounce McCain. It'll be Celtics/Lakers all over again. Clinton/Dole. McCain makes John Kerry look like Bruce Springsteen.
We need 60 in the Senate.
June 20, 2008 5:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama!
you trickster, I want my money back!
BO is done now burning the constitution and single handedly ensuring passage of the telecom immunity, and new invasive, unlimited, unmonitored, and unaccountable state spying on the president's word.
This is a travesty for our cause and movement but moreso our country, and he has massively failed his first test.
I won't do anything to help him really.
If it gets close in my state, I will vote for him.... I guess.
he's not who we hope he will be. not even at the basic level of sticking up for our constitutional rights.
so so so disappointing
June 20, 2008 5:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you are voting for him, you must still think he's better than McCain (and you would be right). Why wouldn't you volunteer and donate to him? Beating McCain is absolutely vital. Obama is on the right side of that issue- he's just not willing to throw himself on the railroad tracks for it.
June 20, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once again... opposing telecom amnesty is not akin to "throwing himself on the railroad tracks."
The American people are with us on this issue.
I'm reading comment after comment saying some variation of "he can't take the risk..."
But I'm not seeing the risk in opposing Mr. 24%.
You know how the Dems in Congress keep acting like the minority party, afraid to do anything that the *actual* minority party might not like?
I think that attitude is trickling down to their constituents.
Opposing George W. Bush, one of the least popular presidents in history, carries no political risk.
Tattoo it on your foreheads, people. The R's are pulling some kind of Jedi Mind Trick that makes many on our side forget that basic fact.
June 20, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
"BO is done now burning the constitution and single handedly ensuring passage of the telecom immunity, and new invasive, unlimited, unmonitored, and unaccountable state spying on the president's word."
Yeah, 'cause it was his idea. I want him to vote against it too, and I really hope he at minimum gets rid of the immunity provisions, but it takes 535 to tango. This is way more Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi than BHO.
June 20, 2008 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
He may not be who you think he was but I am seeing exactly what I expected. He is a winner. The best leader we have seen in over a generation. He said he will fight to get the immunity removed from the bill but if that fails he will vote for the bill. That is a pragmatic aproach that will get him elected. I have given before and will give again. He is exactly what we need and this one vote does not change that.
June 20, 2008 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow. i didn't realize how much i needed comments like yours. and the waters keep rising...
June 20, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol, yes, he singlehandedly did it all, no Republicans or corporate Democrats involved, it isn't Pelosi's fault or Reid's fault or anyone's fault but Obama, because he is still against amnesty and has only accepted that the rest of the bill is politically inevitable. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
How ungrateful people are, the man makes the right decision 99.9% of the time, and on this he is still against the bad part of the bill and will try to get it removed, and yet everyone throws up their hands and say he can go to hell because he didn't say it strongly enough for their liking, and suddenly everything wrong in the world is Obama's fault. Nice
June 20, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
From Kos:
June 20, 2008 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now THAT literally made me LOL.
Thanks!
June 20, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
laughter makes better thinking than anger.
June 20, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
True dat.
June 20, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am in total and complete agreement.
In the last 24 hours or sow, Obama just jumped the shark - at least for me.
Here at TPM they noted the day before that Obama cut an add supporting a blue dog house democrat from Georgia who is for continuing the war, for keeping bushes tax cuts, the whole Lieberman nine yards.
Then he forgoes public funding of campaigns, totally destroying the concept of it in my life time.
Then he endorses the FISA immunity bill - which creates a precedent where any president can do the same thing Bush did, and promise retroactive immunity at some future date. It totally destroys our constitutional protections.
To cap it all off there's this http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/opinion/20brooks.html?hp
Brooks NYTimes column provides a multidimensional bullseye (including timing of the column) on labeling Obama as just another quick change artist politician.
I'm done backing Obama. I'll vote for him, sure. But he's not "change we can believe in" he's "the same we can not believe in" kind of politician.
Just another lying sack in a suit with a nice turn of phrase.
Yeah, he's got my vote, but that's it.
And I doubt we'll see universal health care in our life times. If not now, its never.
June 21, 2008 12:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Grow up already
June 20, 2008 5:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This post was just fine sans the goddamn Dukakis reference.
Obama is not Dukakis. I know it is really hard for everyone to figure that out but it remains true nonetheless.
Post hoc ergo propter hoc:
Dukakis was a Democrat. Once upon a time 20+ years ago, he had a comparable lead to Obama's lead.
Therefore, Obama=Dukakis. Good grief. Can we stop that now please?
June 20, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Amen, brutha, amen!
June 20, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I took it as a simple reminder that this is only June, and nothing is settled yet and there hasn't been a single vote cast thus far.
I didn't mind the reference to be honest. There's still a lot of work to do.
June 20, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I just think there's a more apropos way to get that point across as opposed to bringing up Dukakis. We all know it is early.
You need only look at today's events to see how one thing can throw a lot of stuff up in the air.
I just think of all the "caveats" the Dukakis comparison is one of the dumber ones.
June 20, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough. I agree.
June 20, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can kiss that bounce good-bye after he goes along with the other cowards in the Senate and passes retroactive immunity for the telecoms next week. Hope he liked the lead for a few days because it's about to go away.
June 20, 2008 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michael Dukakis? From 1988?! TWENTY YEARS AGO?
I can understand mentioning it if he ran in 2004 or even 2000, but you went all the back to 1988 in order to be able to dampen the news?
Damn.
June 20, 2008 5:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
It must be too tough for Eric to transition from pro-Hillary/anti-Obama to pro-Obama.
You expect this type of crap from a Joe Klein or a David Broder, not TPM.
June 20, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I expect it from TPM as well at this point. It's a joke.
June 20, 2008 6:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Newsweek mentioned Dukakis. The point of mentioning him isn't Dukakis per se but cautioning against reading too much into a lead 4 months ahead of the election.
June 20, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
or--it's like that yahoo news screencap about obama, with a BIG picture of osama--for no aboveboard reason whatsoever.
sub-liminal dotted cheese.
June 20, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! But then again, should be smooth sailing as long as McCain keeps spewing crap like this:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/200044.php
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0608/McCain_muffs_description_capandtrade.html
June 20, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is absolutely horrible, my worst fears about Obama came true today, he is nothing but a charlatan. A political snakecharmer playing a melodious tune for our votes!!!
Wait.. This post is about a favorable Obama bump in the polls?
Sorry, I was momentarily hypnotized by all the fucking concern trolling going on in the name of FISA. My bad..
June 20, 2008 5:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, you had me there, for a minute!
Thanks for the laugh.
June 20, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
lol. Thanks.
I was getting pretty pissed off at all the concern trolling initiated by Greg Sargent.
June 20, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me too.
Thanks for the comic relief, Humanity!
June 20, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only one thing I'm vaguely afraid of:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-rosenbaum/when-mccain-drops-out_b_107236.html
Is McCain doing so badly that this could become a reality?
June 20, 2008 5:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
And what brilliant savior do the Republicans have in store for when he does? One of the candidates who could not even beat McCain? Rudy? Mittster? A different Bush? It would be un-Republican to do something so unusual, but if they did, I expect the replacement would get trounced even worse. (And consider how divided the party would likely be after a smoke-filled room replacement process, which would strike even Republicans as undemocratic.) I think they're stuck with McSame.
June 20, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Spot on.
June 20, 2008 7:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow, that's actually a decent idea for them. (provided they could get a real conservative celebrity like condi as the candidate)
Let's hope they don't read Huffpo...
June 20, 2008 6:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nah, no worries. McCain is the best the Repubs have right now. No one with a brain wants to run as a Repub this year. At least McC has a slight chance because of his reputation. It is too bad for the republicans that he has been stupid enough to move to the right with an eye on the presidency. Had he stuck to his more moderate stance on issues, he would be doing a lot better now. It just goes to show that when you sell your soul for political ambition - you end up paying in the long run.
June 20, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
You could have made the same prediction about Bob Dole in 1996. The fact of the matter is, the Republicans have nothing this year and they know it. There is no savior for them.
June 20, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep, and your baby is adorable. Thank you.
June 20, 2008 8:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew Michael Dukakis. I like Michael Dukakis. Michael Dukakis was a friend of mine in the sense that I sent out mass mailings in a windowless room of his Boston headquarters. Barack Obama is no Mike Dukakis, needless to say. In addition to infinitely more modest pure political talent than Obama, he did not enjoy campaigning (recall that his wife was going through tough times personally during the campaign). Obama, on the other hand, seems to relish it a la Bill Clinton, and it shows.
June 20, 2008 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news!!! Now Obama doesn't need the rest of us any more and has tossed us aside
">http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/the-fragility-of-hope.php> The Fragility of Hope
June 20, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
He didn't toss anyone aside you idiot. He is still against the amnesty portion, and he acknowledges that the rest isn't perfect but it is best they can do right now. He could have even planned this all to give Dems cover and then kill immunity on the Senate floor and force Bush to veto the thing, thus turning the tables on the Republicans, who knows?
Seriously, grow the hell up. The man makes the right decision 99.9% of the time, and on this he is still against the bad part of the bill and will try to get it removed, and yet everyone throws up their hands and say he can go to hell because he didn't say it strongly enough for their liking, and suddenly everything wrong in the world is Obama's fault.
Apparently 8 years of Bush wasn't enough to get the Nader out of everyone's system, maybe they need another 4 to stop blasting the best candidate Democrats have had in decades over single issues that were out of his control.
June 20, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lux,
Just a shout-out to you for being on top of the crap that's been posted on this site this afternoon.
You did an excellent job!
June 20, 2008 7:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
a named my dog lux, so i really like your screen name. just don't ever ask me about veritas federal media...
buckeye terrorist fist bump nation is also a screen name that is sweetly humorous...but mostly because buckeye sounds a lot like lucky, and i wish he were here and could VOTE!
June 20, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
My Congressman voted against the bill as did 4 out of 5 of the House Democrats in my state. That's all I'm asking from Obama: vote against the FISA bill.
June 20, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops
">http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/the-fragility-of-hope.php> The Fragility of Hope
June 20, 2008 6:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Of course the poll was taken BEFORE Obama caved on FISA.
Before Obama went into hidding, before giving his safe answer (uh, I'm for it), his lie about FISA.
What is the difference between Steny Hoyer, Rockefeller and Obama - not a damn thing.
Why aren't we taking an ad out against Obama.
June 20, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this snark?
And about those poll results? The public supports wiretapping, and doesn't give a crap about immunity (to its detriment, of course), so Obama's stand on FISA isn't going to do a thing except prevent Republicans from calling him "soft on terror".
June 20, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Calm down, you are acting like a complete idiot.
June 20, 2008 6:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Of course the poll was taken BEFORE Obama caved on FISA."
Give me a break with that bullshit..
June 20, 2008 6:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not so sure this is a "post-primary bounce." I think it's McCain gaffing and goofing his way through the past couple of weeks and people really seeing what McCain is all about.
June 20, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please change your avatar.
It's causing havoc with my erectile non-dysfunction.
June 21, 2008 2:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Most polls showing Obama's significant gains in every demographic is encouraging. Coupled with state polls showing similar gains substantiate the trend is in Obama's favour.
Obama is tied with McCain in Georgia and Virginia ( a state a democrat has not won since 1964); he's surpassed McCain in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Florida etc. Of course depending on which poll some polls have them within 1 to 7 points of one another.
Even Kansas of all places Obama is within 10 points of McCain, a state Bush won with a 25 point lead over Kerry.
All in all the trends are in Obama's favour in every demographic. Let's see if they last.
June 20, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
My favorite red state where Obama is in the hunt is Alaska, even though it's obviously got fewer electoral votes than some of the others. I hope he goes up there, raises some money for Begich and Berkowitz, visits some melting permafrost, and shows the flag for the 50 state strategy.
June 20, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ya'll in Alaska?
June 22, 2008 1:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama is going to wipe the floor with McCain.
June 20, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
This new ad of his is only going to continue to raise his numbers. People are just getting to know him and are starting to warm up to him. I don't want to put too much into this poll but DAAAAMN!
June 20, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is great news. I'm going to keep my hopes up despite the FISA ordeal. It's going to work out alright. =)
June 20, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think Obama has a wee edge over Dukakis in charisma and mass appeal.
Not to dis on the Dookie, who has his own charms.
June 20, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
May I say, I love your alliteration on a Friday night.
June 20, 2008 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
An Obama landslide will keep the GOP 51-percenters from stealing another election. A true mandate for a change.
June 20, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the first time I've smiled all day. I'm keeping my faith in Obama that when he is president he will convince the country that losing our rights and principles are not a price we should be willing to pay for security. But right now Obama must win this election...because the Republicans remaining in power is unthinkable.
June 20, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, all in all despite not being perfect...
Obama is a superior candidate in almost every way from Kerry (who I like) and McCain is in almost every way an inferior candidate to Bush (despite the fact that I like McC more than Bush) and given that Kerry barely lost - it does bode well.
Poblano (Nate) over at 538 has some really scary numbers if you are a republican. I am trying hard not to get wrapped up in polls 4 months out but still, I would rather be in this position than the opposite. At the very least it gives some breathing room should things go wrong later, the farther ahead he is now, the farther he can fall and still win.
June 20, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Grr no. edit. feature.
Link to Poblano. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls
June 20, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good analysis and I agree 100%. Thanks!
June 20, 2008 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
fivethirtyeight restores my faith in "wonk."
they are megawonk.
June 20, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other point on my agreement, but my favorite pollster has obama up big and even if he loses the current swing states he still wins. I hope, pray, and believe that we are looking at president obama in January.
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml
And this guy is a ruby red republican. Look out! Maybe we finally get our country back.
June 20, 2008 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
- FISA
- Fundraising
- Hillary Friendship Tour
- Rips McBush on Offshore drilling (what would Arnold do?)
Oh yeah
John McWhat'sHisName gave a major economic speech supporting NAFTA today
in CANADA
June 20, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just a random thought: have there been any polls of who the people of Iraq would like to see elected as US President? I suspect that it would be Obama by a landslide, which kind of cuts the ground from under John McCain.
June 20, 2008 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
WTF!!!! I really don't believe this poll. It's too far out in left field. I am very surprised. Is Newsweek turning into ratsmussen? Mcbush sucks, but not this bad.
June 20, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
All I know is people better stop talking about my husband's wife, Michelle. Because whatever makes HIM upset...makes ME upset....And no ones want's to see ME upset!
June 20, 2008 8:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
yeah 15 points higher then mccain is horrible for mccain. i personally think this is an outlier poll but a gallop.USA poll showed him up by 6% points so you never know
http://sensico.wordpress.com/
June 20, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Michael Dukakis was running against Ronald Reagan. Obama / McCain, is a v. different set of circumstances.
For one, we've had eight years of a Republican Administration, that was one of the worst in history and the country is in the midst of both a serious economic and foreign policy crisis.
Plus, John McCain is no Ronald Reagan, whereas Obama may be the Dem equivalent.
All of this is why I'm convinced that either Israel or the US will bomb Iran. It's the only possible ace the Republicans have up their sleeve. While it could and should backfire, they will play it to the max and the MSM will love it.
June 20, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: bombing Iran, it seems pretty clear that Israel just completed a dry run. And while I, like you, have little faith in the mainstream media, I do believe any U.S. involvement would totally backfire.
This country is war-weary. I have friends who are Republicans who are tired of our foray in Iraq largely because of our current economic straits. It's becoming clear to even the staunchest of Repubs that we can't continue to fund a war and expect the homefront to recover economically without some increase in taxes.
And, of course, there are those of my Repub (and Dem) friends who have had friends or loved ones killed or wounded. Now that the lie of WMDs has been exposed, that's not sitting well with even the most conservative of Americans who know someone who has suffered because of Bush-Cheney's oilcentric aggressiveness.
June 20, 2008 11:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's interesting to learn that there are Repubs who feel the way the majority of the country does about these issues. Do your friends like McCain? Are they open to voting for Obama?
June 21, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
The majority of them are lukewarm about McCain, to say the least.
Will they vote for Obama? I'm still working on that! :-)
And I don't mean to avoid the question, but I'm in Alabama. Draw your own inferences.
June 21, 2008 1:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't get too wound up about this poll, It's far too early to be meaningful. OTOH, it's better to be said to be ahead, than behind.
June 20, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here is another interesting number. Obama only raised $500k more than McCain in May. McCain raised $21.5MM and Obama raised $22MM.
They had approximately the same cash-on-hand at the beginning of June.
Granted, that was McCain's biggest month and Obama pretty much coasted through the month. I am assuming that since Obama decided not to take public $ that they are having a monster June once the primaries ended.
However, that being said - it is time to put things in perspective and crush McCain. Donate to Obama/the DNC. If you can't donate money, then donate time. 4 more years of Republicans will destroy us.
June 20, 2008 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Newsweek always showed wild swings in 2004 as well, I recall. This is an absurd poll. How do these people put out these numbers with a straight face.
And we can call it absurd when Obama is down 10 pts as well. After the RNC convention, for example, or at the first re-emergence of Wright.
June 20, 2008 11:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I wouldn't bet the rent on the poll, it's pretty cool, especially considering how, just a few months ago, many if not nearly all of the punditry was saying, that Obama couldn't get the white, blue collar vote, or that it would be an uphill battle.
Even if Obama is actually only ahead by five points, I'll be happy.
June 21, 2008 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I kind of grin when I hear the comparison to Dukakis...
When are people going to realize this election is not like any others in the last 20 years?
I won't go into the fact that Obama clearly is a different breed of candidate than Dukakis was. Even ignoring this fact, the only other recent election involving a sitting President (and by proxy the direction of the country) was even close to as unpopular as Bush is now was Carter v. Reagan in 1980.
Just the same as now, all the American general populace will need is the slightest excuse to vote for Obama.
In 1980 they waited to see if Reagan could debate Carter effectively. In 2008, I'm not sure they'll even wait that long...
June 21, 2008 4:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
A poll where there is a 15% difference is a milepost of sorts. There are a lot of people out there who aren't as politically-minded as most of us are. They tend to make up their minds late in the process, and often they're are swayed by what they consider to be the majority position. If there's a general perception out there that Obama is going to win, a lot of these fence-sitters will decide that they don't wnat to invest anything emotionally ion backing the loser candidate.
June 21, 2008 6:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLANT NEWS!!!FOR McCAIN!!!!
June 21, 2008 7:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wish to reiterate a point made earlier: Newsweek polls tend to have wide swings, but enjoy it while you can. It may even be correct. Remember the Insider Advantage GA poll which had a one point McCain lead? [Insider Advatage has a Republican bias.] If that was close to being correct (and I think it may from what I have been hearing), then Newsweek may be correct TODAY. McCain is in trouble in what should be solid states for him. [There would be slashing of wrists on this site, for example, if Obama was only one point up in a state such as CA, MD or MA.] If this is also true in states similar to GA, then the national Newsweek numbers may be accurate at the time they were taken since very recent polls shows Obama holding the Democratic voters. One thing which disturbs me is Charley Cook's observation that his analysis of polls over he last few months show that Obama has a significant problem with Baby Boomers -- an 18 point gap for those born between 1944 and 1958 -- and Charley does not have an explanation he will print. Being one of "them," this has disturbed me. This is the generation who came of age during the civil rights era and Vietnam which distinguish it from other cohorts. I do not think that it is racism, latent or otherwise, because there has been no evidence of it before to an extent sufficient to explain the 18 point gap. Quite the opposite, in fact. My surmise, and I emphasize surmise, is that it may be a subconscious guilt over McCain's suffering as a prisoner of war. This is somewhat ironic in that McCain is the least likely to avoid a Vietnam quabmire in Iraq based upon his current statements. Anyway, just some thoughts on a beautiful Saturday morning--time to get out and enjoy it.
June 21, 2008 8:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe part of the reason some BB's are less than enthusiastic, has to do with the fact that for the first time in their lives, they would be older than the POTUS.
I jest, but unconsciously.... who knows?
June 21, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope this is a potent of things to come. Great news. For Obama. I am taking a wait and see attitude about FISA. I would rather have Barack listening to my phone calls than McSame.
June 21, 2008 8:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
UH, oops, Freudian slip. I mean portent.
June 21, 2008 8:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
15-point lead? It doesn't matter. The Pants-Pisser contingent of the Dem party will think of some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Oh, and look at the FISA posts. Right on cue...
June 21, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shaking my head in angst. These people know nothing about history, do they?
June 21, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you kidding? The pants pissers are way ahead of you self-destructing over on the "Why It Such a Downer" thread right now! TPM is the leader in this, bold and proud! Countless trouser-miturating whiners have accepted the brave TPM challenge, and recount how they'll never give money to Democrats again, etc. They love failure I guess, as TPM apparently does, provided that its pant-pissing-pure!
June 21, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was over at 538 and he was talking about newsweek polls being very volatile historically. Anybody have any ideas why? Seems to me if they are so volatile and untrustworthy why does anybody bother with them. By the way, there is no way that this poll is accurate. It doesn't make sense.
June 21, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
As much as I would love to believe it, the poll is clearly an outlier. When the next Newsweek poll regresses towards the mean, they'll have a headline about how Obama's support is declining. It's all a bit silly. The worst recent poll has Obama up two points, the best up fifteen, with most in the four to six range. The trends look good, but there is a lot of time and work between now and November.
June 21, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
While I certainly like seeing that Obama is up by 15, it is about as meaningful as asking people today who will win the World Series this October.
Also, the fact that Dukakis had a similar lead and lost is also irrelevant. While Obama won because he has a passionate following, Dukakis was never a viable candidate. He was our default nominee after Hart screwed things up for himself. People will come out to vote for Obama, not simply to vote against McCain. And while we revere Al Gore today because of his Nobel prize, etc., was anybody hear actually all that wild about him when he was the nominee in 2000? And in 2004, we "liked" Kerry because he wasn't Bush and nothing more. The Democratic Party voters were idiots to think a Massachusetts senator was our best choice, especially one that looks like Herman Munster.
June 21, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
The reason Newsweeek came up with results 10 points outside the RCP average?
Look at the party ID breakdown...
Dem/Dem leaners 55%
GOP/GOP leaners 36%
The Dems certainly have a double digit advantage in party identification, but that edge is nowhere near 19 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
June 21, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Argo is right. The poll seems to include too many Dems. Obama is ahead, but this is an outlier.
John McCain OK With Staying in Iraq for 100 Years
June 21, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to point this out, but the final NEWSWEEK poll of the 2004 election had Bush winning by 6 points. He actually won by 2.3 points.
In other words, their polling seems to indiacate a GOP bias - not a Democratic one. (Theirs was the furthest off in favor of the REPUBLICANS than any other major poll.)
BUt for consistent accuracy and closeness, Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be the best.
June 21, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Victor Laszlo is right that the American people are with the anti-immunity side,...but only today.
If there is a terrorist attack on the US, a hefty majority will reverse their position.
...I think that another attack may not swing public opinion much more in favor of a more interventionist policy, but it certainly would swing opinion back in favor of surveillance and detainee black holes.
"Once again... opposing telecom amnesty is not akin to "throwing himself on the railroad tracks."
The American people are with us on this issue.
I'm reading comment after comment saying some variation of "he can't take the risk..."
But I'm not seeing the risk in opposing Mr. 24%.
You know how the Dems in Congress keep acting like the minority party, afraid to do anything that the *actual* minority party might not like?
I think that attitude is trickling down to their constituents.
Opposing George W. Bush, one of the least popular presidents in history, carries no political risk.
Tattoo it on your foreheads, people. The R's are pulling some kind of Jedi Mind Trick that makes many on our side forget that basic fact.
Posted by VictorLaszlo"
June 21, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Meh. I'll take it as a good sign but compared to the other polls this one is definitely an out-lier.
June 21, 2008 11:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Encouraging if you're looking for encouragement, but why report this at such face value? You have three other contemporaneous national polls posted, all of which show Obama at 46-48% and McCain at 42-44% -- all consistent with each other and within each other's margin of error. Either Newsweek is an obvious outlier or they're polling a different country.
June 22, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo! That's the first time I've ever seen a spam-email-text-generator algorithm adapted to trolling!
June 23, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink