Poll: Tight Race In Ohio
A new SurveyUSA poll in Ohio shows a very tight race in this big swing state -- and significant movement in John McCain's favor, too, though Barack Obama is maintaining a nominal lead.
The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. A month ago, it was Obama 48%, McCain 39%.
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It's June.
June 28, 2008 12:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
We will win Ohio.
Book it!
June 28, 2008 12:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just this poll? No post about how John McCain is taking credit for the GI Bill which he opposed?
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/27/141036/548
June 28, 2008 12:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I thought that was pretty messed up too. Definitely something TPM should pick up on.
And Olbermann.
June 28, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. That should be huge headlines. TPM and others should not let him get away with this.
June 28, 2008 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I just wrote TPM and told them this McCain thing should be in front page headline.
June 28, 2008 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not a problem.
June 28, 2008 12:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
don't forget this is where Obama outspent Hillary 3:1 and still lost. McCain gaining ground is not a good sign for Hillary from the most reliable pollster.
June 28, 2008 1:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
huh?
June 28, 2008 1:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
they have McCain receiving 13% of the African-American vote. Not. Going. To. Happen.
June 28, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Those spending numbers are misleading. He was a complete unknown going into that election and training by 30 and 40 points at times. That he pulled within ten was a miracle. I wouldn't put all that much faith in strange polls coming from "swing" states this year.
June 28, 2008 4:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
While you're rtooting for Obama to lose, keep in mind that Ted Strickland campaigned feverishly for Hillary, and that Grampy McSame has been in Ohio more than Obama in the past month.
Yet Obama is still ahead in Ohio.
Next half-baked theory?
June 28, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain isn't "gaining ground," they used different party ID numbers this time around. Less Dems, more Reps, therefore McCain's numbers grow. SUSA needs to pick a turnout model and run with it.
June 29, 2008 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I mean to say: not a good sign for Obama.
June 28, 2008 1:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is GREAT news for John McCain because he's behind by two points in Ohio.
June 28, 2008 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
They have McCain pulling 13% of the African American vote. Wow. Where do they come up with the idea that Obama isn't going to carry at least 90% of the African American vote in any state.
June 28, 2008 4:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
He got 90% in a Dem primary! He'll be around 98% in a general election. there just aren't enough Ken blackwell's and clarence thomas's around here.
June 28, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
That alone should tell you that the poll's crosstabs are screwed up.
June 28, 2008 11:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama has started shifting on issues. Drilling for oil sounds like McCain wants return to the days of cheap gasoline. "YAY!", go all the blue collars.\
Make no mistake. This election is Obama's to lose. And I am convinced that it is going to be a re-run of 2004 all over again, with 150.000 voters deciding who gets the White House.
Obama had better not f*ck up like he's doing now (FISA, overturned D.C. gun law)
June 28, 2008 6:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I disagree.... the election will not be close at all.
go back to June of 2006 and it looked like Dems might pick up 5 seats in the house, and a couple seats in the senate. no way anyone thought we would win Montana, MO, RI, and did anyone in their right mind think that Allen would lose in Virginia? he was up by 15-20 points!
we end up picking off 30+ in the house and 6 in the senate.
this time around i think we can do the same and it will be a blowout again.
people are mad out there, much more mad then they were in 2006
June 28, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't unconvince you of that, but this is so not '04. Bush was still polling in the high 70s and 80s in '04. Not anymore - Repugs are panicked.
You already having Obama losing- for all the world as if you wanted him to.
This is not 2004. This is a whole lot more like 2006, when we started taking the country back.
June 28, 2008 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tena, Bush was sub-50% approval in 2004 and he still won. That's the scary thing. That sense of inevitability that doomed HRC's campaign - take a lesson from that. And the lesson should not be it's only January or Iowa's an anomaly. We need to fight like we're behind in every state because it will be thisclose - guaranteed.
June 28, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought he was polling at least 60- something, but I'll take your word for it, dijamo.
Nevertheless, the entire mood in the country is completely different than it was in '04. Completely.
June 28, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
negative. bush was not below 50% in 2004.
it wasn't until mid-2005 that he went below 50% job approval rating.
http://www.pollster.com/presbushapproval.php
June 28, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.gallup.com/poll/11872/Deconstructing-Drop-Bushs-Job-Approval-Rating.aspx
That trend line you're looking at starts at the beginning of his 2nd term 1/2005. Bush was below 50% in 2004 and Kerry was leading him in the polls. The summer began and so did the swiftboating, flip-floppery charges. History has a habit of repeating itself and I recall being extremely sure that this country was not dumb enough to reelect Bush. I don't plan on repeating that mistake. Vigilence is good - overconfidence not good.
June 28, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're not accounting for the "No Opinion" poll results.
From Labor Day to Election Day in 2004, Bush's favorables were larger than his unfavorables for all but two weeks in Gallup's weekly polls. For most of that period, his favorables were over 50%.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/1723/Presidential-Job-Approval-Depth.aspx#2
June 28, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
True - but the question was sub-50% approval rating. If you are at 49% approve, 42% disapprove and 9% no opinion - you are still lower than 50% approval. No opinion does not go in your favor.
June 28, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
How the hell is Obama responsible for a Supreme Court decision? You people are unhinged.
June 29, 2008 4:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Survey USA polls are not very accurate.
heck they have Obama only winning 70% of dems.
June 28, 2008 8:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's not just SUSA. Rasmussen has only 68% of Dems saying they're certain they'll vote for Obama.
June 28, 2008 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
75% of Dems.
As firstread points out, Democrats had more than a 20 point party identification advantage over Republicans (50-high 20s) in the previous SUSA poll. In this poll, Democrats have a 13 percent party identification advantage over Republicans. Because of these figures, of course the race will become tighter.
June 28, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
The below quote is from fivethirteight.com
"But it's the SurveyUSA result in Ohio that I want to focus on. Obama leads by 2 here, but had been ahead by 9 in SurveyUSA's may poll of the state. That previous poll had shown a heavily Democratic sample -- 52 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 18 percent independent -- and had triggered a lot of discussion about whether pollsters should be weighting their results by party ID. SurveyUSA does not do so -- although if it had applied the May distribution of party IDs to this poll, it would have shown Obama ahead by 10-11 points rather than by 2. Conversely, if SurveyUSA had applied the June party ID distribution to its May poll, that poll would have shown a dead heat rather than Obama ahead by 9."
June 28, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mmmm...yes, the devil's always in the details, ain't it?
June 28, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
According to npr today Obama has just above 50% of former Clinton supporters in his camp. If this is true, and he's already ahead of McCain with this lack of support, when the rest of Clinton's supporters finally choose Democratic, Obama should win by a landslide. Does this make any sense?
June 28, 2008 8:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes it does. Thanks. You cheered me up.
June 28, 2008 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Except Kerry had a united Democratic party behind him and a president woth sub 50 % approval artings and still lost. This is not to throw a damper on folks just to point out this will be no landslide - it's going to be a hard fought fight.
June 28, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are right it will be a hard fight. I certainly never expected different.
I still think Obama is going to win -
June 28, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
HI YA Tena Havin fun yet walkin the street????
June 29, 2008 3:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
"did anyone in their right mind think that Allen would lose in Virginia? he was up by 15-20 points!" Good rhetorical question
"we end up picking off 30+ in the house and 6 in the senate." I think Dems may net 10 or more in the Senate. Wish Franken was doing better, though.
June 28, 2008 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wondering about television station coverage over state boundaries... McCain is, presumably, running ads. I cannot see any other reason that his numbers would be going up.
To do? Register more voters. I asked a clerk if he planned to vote and change the world; he mumbled that he wasn't eighteen. When I asked him if he would be 18 by November 4th, his expression of revelation was thrilling to see. Try it yourself.
June 28, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sure it's oil - drilling. They may know that it won't produce for years, but at least, they think, this means that McCain is going for US energy self-reliance in future. The image is McCain being assertive and positive and Obama being negative/doing nothing.
It's so incredibly depressing watching the GOP talking heads lying through their teeth about how quickly it could come online.
June 28, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe Obama's move to the center since he won the primary has something to do with his dropping numbers.
June 28, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes because the vast majority of Americans are really anarchists and they want an anarchist president.
Uh huh.
June 28, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
LOL! yeah. And especially in Ohio. The Internationale is the Buckeye state's favourite...
June 28, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget so many dim-bulb religious nut cases hail from the Buckeye State. Ernest Angely's immense crackpot "Ministry" is in some Cuyohoga Falls (Angely bought it from competitor televangelist Rex Humbard's estate when old Holy Roller expired). The State Motto remains “With God, all things are possible.” That sound like something Angely would smarmily warble, but it's the bloody State Motto, mind you.
McCain is doing work to keep these Bush-oriented dunces on the reservation. Here is an article from Huffington showing it's a hard row -- they want a first class dunderhead in the White House and they're not sold that McCain is that vapid and lazy: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/26/evangelicals-ditch-mccain_n_109400.html They may be molified if he picks an utter buffoon as Veep, supposely.
Obama's best hope is that many of these damnfools will stay home, so he's pitching this: He, too, is totally nutso about the Lord, so please just watch Ernest's inspiring videos at home on Election Day. Karl Rove adored these people.
June 28, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't look now, but the evangelicals are very disenchanted with the GOP and don't like McLame.
Obama could pick up those votes - he's quietly working on it and that's ok with me.
June 28, 2008 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'm more cynical (like it don't show, eh?). I don't think he'll get squat among them votes, but I think he can lull them so that enough will spend Election Day listening to inspirational radio at home, enough to despoil the Karl Rove math that so tragically disserved USA. McCain's antidote would be picking a religio as Veep, they say, but supposedly he can't abide Huckabee. It's be funny if he picked some real around-the-bend bible thumper, but I don't think McCain's got that in him!
June 28, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
You really want to Galvanize the Evangelicals Tena?Then put the IRON ***** on the ticket with OBOMA and they will be disenchanted NO MORE!!!
They will do everything they can to DEFEAT OBAMA!!!!
June 29, 2008 3:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'll call you on Ohio's motto, and raise you New Hampshire's: Live Free Or Die.
June 28, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, they changed the composition of their sample. If the party affiliation numbers had stayed the same than in May, Obama gained two points at +11 instead of +9.
Unfortunately, it would be too much to ask for the media to learn how to read a poll. There was no movement in favor of McCain. Only a change of methodology.
June 28, 2008 10:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is why I don't like polls - it's all methodology and sampling and how the questions are framed and blah blah blah - I just don't trust 'em.
June 28, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your favorite troll here.
When Clinton conceded I wanted to give Obama a chance. In such a short time he has turned into just another pol. Flip flopping, changing positions, straddling the fence. He is just as unknown and untrustworthy as I always suspected. It is now becoming obvious even to many staunch Obama supporters.
I think I represent a substantial percentage of other Clinton supporters who at this point would rather not vote at all than vote for Obama.
June 28, 2008 11:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're alright. But, I have a warm spot for GotALife. Just sayin'.
June 28, 2008 11:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought I was the favorite troll sniff sniff.
Speak for yourself. The vast majority of Clinton supporters will unite behind Obama because he is a million times closer to HRC. They don't want four more years of doubling down in Iraq, increasing our national debt because of failed economic policies, having SCOTUS at risk of scalia being the moderate, seeing health care costs spiral and become ever more unaffordable. The most important issue in this election is NOT MCCAIN and true Hillary voters who believed in her policies will eventually come around to voting for the candidate is closer to her on the issues they care about.
June 28, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
And what evidence do you have that Obama will get us out of Iraq sooner than McCain? His word on it? He seems to find plenty of reasons to reverse his position on other important issues. Why does it seem unlikely that if he were in office he'd say that evidence shows we must not leave Iraq so hastily. He has no real principles, no commitment, no consistency. Just decisionmaking based on expediency and winning. The worst character of a typical politician. I don't believe a word he says and he says a lot of pretty sounding words.
June 28, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well if you want to be totally cynical about it, he'll do what he promised because he wants to be reelected unlike McCain. McCain's already said he wants only one term. He enters office with a constituency of ONE - himself. Obama if elected always has that second term in mind and so will please the folks who got him there.
Obama would have strong democratic majorities in both houses of Congress & we could do AMAZING things without needing to compromise with the GOP. They'll be relegated to the sidelines without the votes to stop as we pursue a democratic agenda. Or maybe it will be the same old same old. I don't have a crystal ball & if I did I would have used it to prevent some of the mistakes in HRC's campaign and made her the candidate. She's still who I think would have been best and always will be. But you roll the dice every time you cast your vote and hope that the candidate will be true to your values. At least with Obama there's still a hope for change vs. McCain where you pretty much now we're in for another 4 years of GWB.
June 28, 2008 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only Obamites and the newly converted believe that McCain is Bush. Republicans and true Independents do not see it that way. And this business of "change" is now officially tired and trite. Every recent move by Obama is to the center and devoid of change. More like status quo. Obama is a sham. Clinton would have stuck to her positions. That ship has sailed and many will either vote for McCain or not at all. Only the delusional can project a future with either candidate. Niether of these candidates is trustworthy as far as their principles or platforms.
What is trouble is the notion that if Obama is elected and gets to appoint 2 Supreme Court justices all three branches will essentially be under Democratic control. Sensible people know this is a recipe for disaster. That is how the Republicans got us to where we are. And they thought they would do amazing things with their power. It would be close to absolute power and the old saying holds true about that.
June 28, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like how you switch from praising McCain to trashing him in the same paragraph. Nothing's sadder than a troll who can't help but contradict himself in the same paragraph.
Schizophrenia must suck.
June 29, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Clinton would have stuck to her positions."
LOL.
June 29, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh lord, a Clinton supporter lecturing us on how we can't take another candidate at their word.
You dead-enders are pathetic...
June 29, 2008 4:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Darlin the problem with that is that you never were a troll. You were always a sincere and fierce Clinton supporter - and genuine.
Unlike the trolls, who are just here to troll.
June 28, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The above comment was a reply to dijamo.
And PS, dijamo - I never doubted your sincerity, but that never kept me from wanting to wring your neck from time to time.
I'm sure it's mutual.
LOL - and here's a {{{{Mwaah}}}} kiss of unity. ;)
June 28, 2008 11:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Tena. Unity grope hug back at ya ;o) We may have wanted to wring each other's necks once or twice or a bazillion times (and I'm sure we won't see eye to eye on everything till November), but it's good to be fighting on the same team now.
June 28, 2008 11:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
O I am loving this unity gig. I mean it - it feels great.
Democrats are such a diverse bunch, it really is like herding cats - we're not all going to agree on everything, ever - or even close. But the more I think about the party, the more I like the fact that we really are that diverse. The Repugs used to be more diverse, but they aren't anymore and it killed them and their movement dead. That should be an object lesson to us - we are a contentious, quarrelsome, opinionated bunch of people - but we can work together. And I'd so much rather. I'm so tired of this Manichean world/cultural view of everything.
:)
June 28, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are one of the few decent TROLLS out there so keep up the good work.
June 29, 2008 3:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Most Clinton supporters are actually not psychopaths who spend all day trolling TPM. If you notice, there are only like five of you guys (and that's not accounting for sock puppets).
June 29, 2008 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
What happened to the White Males in OH? They went from 45-42 Obama in May to 60-36 McCain in June. If this trend continues, there is no way Obama wins OH.
June 28, 2008 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Read MarkAtl's comment above. The short answer is that SUSA doesn't adjust for demographics. Depending on who gets randomly selected, you'll get varying results.
For example, if Republicans are 30% of the voting population, other pollsters adjust their results to account for that. SUSA doesn't.
June 28, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing that isn't ever mentioned is that Obama has an advantage over previous candidates by going through a long high-profile primary. He has recognition other Democratic candidates such as Kerry didn't have in June, and has been much more vetted than other candidates had been in June. So I think his lead in the swing states is more reliable than previous candidates/elections. The Republicans are mostly counting on their ace in the hole--the Democratic party. They are certain we will beat ourselves over issues such as FISA and gun control. This election is ours to lose, and they know it. (And in my opinion, most evangelicals will vote for McCain just because of the Supreme Court justice issue. They've wanted Roe vs. Wade overturned for decades--and it's finally within their reach.) Obama needs to keep his focus on ending the war and stopping that spending because even conservatives want to hear that, and give another amazing speech...probably on Iraq...to stir the public and the media.
June 28, 2008 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good points all the way around.
June 28, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
obama is going to win.
June 28, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
bank on it !
June 28, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
a mccain win is ever more unimaginable. just think about it. visualise the depression and fallout. aint gonna happen.
June 28, 2008 7:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post-primary season bump beginning to taper off?
June 29, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Am I a concern troll? This morning my son just happened to decide to put "Fahrenheit 911" in the cd player. Do you remember that it starts with Gore winning Florida and the election? It reminded me that Gore won in 2000 and the election was stolen from him and from the country! Then I remember the black box voting film with the scenes of African Americans in Ohio standing in the late evening dark and pouring rain to get a chance at the too few voting machines. I imagine that the crooks that have been inhabiting our executive branch are pretty determined not to allow the people (us) to get into a position where we might actually be able to hold them accountable. On the merits, I can't see how McCain can win. But if the Repugnants can get anywhere close in the numbers, I think they will try to steal this election. That is why we need to have overwhelming numbers of votes for Obama. Two points in Ohio is not enough.
June 29, 2008 1:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
*If* Obama can keep the energy, suzikimom, he can make up for a sketchy 2 point polling lead in big-ass turnout. And possibly McCain's irresolute "supporter" staying home in significant numbers.
June 29, 2008 4:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
"supporters"
June 29, 2008 4:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
One more thing I neglected to mention in my previous posts:
McBush has been running TV ads in Ohio for the past month, whereas Obama just started to run ads again here in the past week.
June 29, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink