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Poll Suggests Obama Is Putting North Carolina In Play
Barack Obama's promise to make a play for North Carolina -- a state that has consistently voted Republican since 1980 -- might just have some potential to really pay off, a new poll from Rasmussen suggests.
The numbers: McCain 45%, Obama 43%, within the ±4% margin of error. This is consistent with other recent polls that have shown McCain with only a small lead here.
Another bad sign for McCain is that 54% of respondents said it's more important to bring the troops home form Iraq than it is to win the war, versus only 40% who think victory is more important than leaving -- a very bad finding for McCain in this traditionally red state.
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My contact in NC is very tied into the Dem establishment there - knows the Governor, others. Said he spoke with Easley recently and the Gov. was told by Axelrod that Obama is absolutely playing to win North Carolina, not just keep it close.
June 12, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The added benefit is that McCain will have to spend money in NC. So even if Obama doesn't win NC, McCain will have to try and hold it by wasting energy there, energy that could have been spent competing in PA, OH, MI, VA, WI, CO and NM.
I don't pity the man. Clearly money will be the issue here. Saturation in these states will be the door to the white house and money is the key to unlock that door.
Make him fight every where. He won't know what hit him.
June 12, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't forget that Obama lost Pennsylvania, while at the same time bankrupting Clinton. If it's even feasible that he can compete there (and clearly it is), he will pour resources in at such a rate that McCain will have no choice but to fight for North Carolina.
No more of this 2004 thing where 5 or 6 states are at play - we're talking 10-15 states this year.
June 12, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whole-hearted Agreement.
June 12, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thinking 50 to 57 states in play.
June 12, 2008 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
57?
June 12, 2008 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes all 57! Obama mentioned this number in the primaries.
June 12, 2008 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was because the primaries included contests like Guam and American Samoa that do not get a say in the GE. It seems to me that if you figure 50 states plus DC, that makes 51 electoral vote contests. If you further divide Maine into 2 congressional districts and Nebraska into 3 (given that each state assigns its electoral votes by CD) you can get five more contests to get one to 56 electoral vote contests, but I do not see how one reaches 57.
June 12, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that number (57) may have included all contests - some states had primary votes as well as caucuses (Texas was one).
read: http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/election08/200
from the article "40 of the 57 contests are primaries"
When Obama mentioned the number 57 - he was referring to the number of contests - not the number of states or primaries . . .
June 12, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a good point. To my mind, that is the best reason to contest GA as well. It is not that I think that we have a good chance of flipping GA, but we have enough of a chance that McCain will know that if we contest it he has to respond at least a little. This diverts resources from other, more winnable states like OH and MO. Of course, it also diverts our resources as well, but we have more money to spend, so this cost is dearer to McCain than it is for us. The same principle might even apply in LA and TX.
June 12, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
it's not just the obama candidacy but the changing demographics of the southern atlantic coast that will bring these states into play.
here's a funny site that shows this changing demographic, from the eyes of a--well, you'll see:
http://gobacktoohio.com/
June 12, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not just money, either. It's energy. Grampa ain't quite as frisky as he was when he dumped his first wife.
June 12, 2008 2:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is wonderful news. I started out expecting that Obama would not win a single southern state, but I see that I greatly underestimated the man. Well, ye good citizens of the Tar Heel state, get to work. Register voters, talk to your neighbors, put signs in your yards. I am sure that you all take just as much personal interest in flipping NC as I take in flipping MO, so I look forward to toasting you and your efforts on Nov 4 when CNN announces that Obama won NC.
June 12, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't stand this false choice based on republican memes:
In my opinion, we already won based on the goal of getting Hussein out (I was against the war since before it began). If "victory" is achieved by anyone, it should be attributed to the Iraqi government.
June 12, 2008 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, but despite the false memes, it still came out 54-40 in favor of "surrender." Imagine how the question would come out if it were honestly asked.
June 12, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
In a state with a large and visible military presence. In fact, that's probably what's driving these numbers.
June 12, 2008 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. Obama won Onslow County (home of Camp Lejeune) comfortably, receiving almost as many votes by himself as were cast for all of the Republican candidates combined. In Cumberland County (home of Fort Bragg), where Obama campaigned personally, he won by a huge margin, and received roughly 4x as many votes himself as were cast in the Republican primary. North Carolina had important Republican primary races, and a closed ballot (you could only vote in the Democratic or the Republican primary, no ticket-splitting), so it offers some gauge of people's sentiments to see not only who won the primary but who won the turnout. In NC's military counties, Obama won both by wide margins.
June 13, 2008 12:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
This poll does not measure the Bob Barr Effect. When women begin to abandon McCain, will he fall to a double-digit deficit nationally? Will he limp into his convention thus?
Since W and Cheney are off the political table, a power vacuum is beginning to open, and, frankly, McCain is not large enough to fill it. Not by a longshot.
This is the stuff of which landslides are made.
June 12, 2008 1:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
This also under-represents youth and African-American turnout
June 12, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't someone puts odds of McCain actually being replaced as the nominee at 25%?
If he's down double digits at the convention, I wouldn't be surprised...
June 12, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I second that. I can already see a way for the GOP to softly drop McCain: recurrence of skin cancer. Romney-Huckabee '08?
June 12, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not as though McCain is the problem for the Republicans, though. His "straight-talking maverick" reputation, deserved or not, gives him a broader base of popularity than most. The gaffes and doubletalk are embarrasing, but they are not his main problem. The real anchor to Republican popularity is the war, and among Republican hopefuls, only the libertarian-leaning Ron Paul (a marginal GE candidate at best) was against the war.
About the only way the Republicans could erase Obama's enormous "party identification" advantage would be to nominate someone who is against the war and truly at odds with the Bush administration. Chuck Hagel would fit the bill. Of course, by nominating someone like that they would be conceding an enormous amount of ideological ground, i.e. they would be conceding that we are going to get out of Iraq and restore civil liberties.
This is not to say that McCain has a 0% chance of winning. Just that Romney and Huckabee are not obviously superior candidates.
June 12, 2008 6:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
One thing to consider as well: in an earlier June PPP poll ( pdf here) Bob Barr was pulling 6%! We can be fairly certain most of those votes would go to McCain.
It's very plausible that a few states will be won by Obama or McCain with under 50% of the given states popular vote. NC, SC, GA are all states where Barr could approach 10%, imho.
June 12, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm an outsider, and I know there are key differences across these states. But aren't the demographics relatively similar in SC and GA when compared to NC? He really should be able to make a play there too. N'est pas?
June 12, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
not quite. SC is a much older, conservative state, but Dems have made serious progress on the coast, with many northern liberals making there way to savannah and charleston.
GA has a Dem base in Altanta ("the capital of the south"), Athens, and a couple other medium to small size college towns.
NC is quite different. With the growth of the high-tech research triangle area (Raleigh-Cary, Durham-Chapel Hill), many young urban professionals have moved here from the north and midwest.
June 12, 2008 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only thing North and South Carolina have in common is the "Carolina." I mean, those people down there put mustard in their barbeque, for God's sake! I'm an immigrant to NC, and even I know that that's just wrong.
June 12, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not just the mustard, and it's not just the influx of new residents from outside the state.
There's an old saying in North Carolina that the state is "a vale of humility nestled between two mountains of conceit." It's a bit of an oversimplification, but Virginia and South Carolina were settled by a distinctly more blue-blooded, land-holding class. North Carolina, generally speaking, had some landed gentry in the east, but in the west tended to attract those wishing to escape the state-mandated Church of England in Virginia and the cultural mishmash and Indian conflicts in Western Pennsylvania, the great majority of whom did not have extensive landholdings and thus were not tied down geographically. Many settlers were just squatters on crown land and eventually the eastern landowners, with the collaboration of Gov. Tryon, began to force them off their land. "Breaking Loose Together" is a wonderful history of the resulting Regulator Rebellion.
North Carolina has a somewhat more egalitarian culture and history than its neighbors to the north and south.
June 12, 2008 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
And then there's Asheville, where I live. Extremely progressive. I think I counted three Hillary signs (and no McCain ones) in the run-up to the primary. TONS of Obama ones. Conservative thought is very unwelcome here. Excitement here for a Democratic win is palpable, and very real.
Of course, step outside the city limits and the "Welcome Mat" is out for the likes of Eric Rudolph, but still.
June 12, 2008 3:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not really. There's nothing in SC, for instance, to compare to the Triangle, or the Triad, or even the western part of NC. Georgia's demographics depend upon getting African-American voters registered.
NC is closer to Virginia in that regard: lots of migration from the north including 'halfbacks' (northeastern retirees who go to Florida, can't cope with the climate, and head halfway back) and people employed in tech/science. If you're going on broad racial trends, white voters in NC are going to be more likely to lean towards Obama.
June 12, 2008 2:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Probably the biggest difference in NC is the relatively larger number of moderate white newcomers to the state. Folks attracted to the high tech/ university industries in the state. In NC these folks seems more likely to vote Democratic (or be persuadable) than the different type of white voter that predominates in SC, GA, etc. Sort of like Virginia, where the growth in the DC suburbs is turning the state more Democratic.
That said, I think Georgia could well end up in play, especially if Bob Barr has any impact there. Parts of metro Atlanta contain more moderate or progressive white voters and young voters (in Atlanta and the college towns) who are more open than the hard core Republicans in the exurbs and the small town social conservatives who are likely to vote Republican.
South Carolina and Alabama seem like a further stretch - an extremely racially polarized vote - even with a huge African-American turnout, Obama would need to get about 30% of the white vote to win -- something national Democratic candidates almost never get in those state.
Mississippi is somewhat more heavily African-American - getting about 25% of the white vote could produce a win -- not impossible, but still a tough pull for a black candidate in that state.
Arkansas has a smaller African-American population, but also more willingness of white voters to vote for national Democrats. Obama would be unlikely to win it on his own, but if Hillary Clinton, Wes Clark, or Blanche Lincoln were on the ticket, they might make it competitive.
Louisiana is harder to call. Odds would favor McCain there, and we really don't know for certain how much demographics have changed statewide post-Katrina. The one difference between LA and the rest of the south is the huge Catholic/ Cajun population -- they have been much more willing to vote Democratic (at least sometimes) than Protestant white southerners. If Obama can crack that vote, and have a huge black turnout, and harness Katrina/Rita anger it could be competitive -- but seems unlikely.
Tennessee seems out of range - smallest black population in the south, and if Gore couldn't carry his home state, Obama seems like an even longer shot.
But yes, parts of the south can be competitive this year. Talk about changing the map.
June 12, 2008 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent analysis, terje.
The reason that LA is tougher for dems (the exodus of african americans from the lower 9th ward in New Orleans), is the same reason that Texas could be in play.
June 12, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure about the moderate newcomer meme. I read somewhere that in 2004 that these upper middle class suburbanites, the soccer mom, SUV, security set, tended to vote Republican. I think you're not giving enough credit to the natives, many of whom are progressive, and most of the rest of whom have been devastated by Bushco economics.
June 12, 2008 3:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, all of that's important. But in terms of "biggest difference," I'm still going to have to go with the mustard-based barbecue. Although I do believe I once observed a South Carolinian who wasn't on an onramp or in a dedidcated turn lane use a turn signal, and I thought that was pretty different.
Seriously, though, I have never gotten such a sudden sense of having stepped into a different world than the times I've crossed into South Carolina on a backroad. It's very abrupt.
June 12, 2008 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
So do you prefer Eastern NC barbecue or Western NC barbecue?
June 12, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I categorically refuse to get involved in theological disputes on the Internet.
June 12, 2008 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
they're both plain wrong. I love almost everything Tar Heel, but even after 9 years living here, I refuse to call vinegar "barbecue sauce." Puh-lease.
June 13, 2008 1:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
I can't stand the sticky, sweet, molasses-based mess either.
Give me some ribs with a good Southwestern dry rub, anytime.
June 13, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, hey, hey! I grew up in SC and I have to say, we're making a little bit of progress. Some people can even put together a complete sentence. And you have to admit that Charleston kicks ass.
June 12, 2008 3:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Charleston really is great.
June 12, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Taking back the Carolinas would be a devastating blow to the GOP for years and years and years.
June 12, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm feeling pretty smug these days, after defending Obama for so long against charges that he couldn't beat McCain, or that the Republicans wanted him to be the nominee because they knew he'd be a lousy candidate, or that he was too wimpy to run against a Republican. He's turning out to be a great fighter, and I'm looking forward to using the phrase "President Obama" for the next eight years.
June 12, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
In your dream, you can do whatever you want, Mr. bunny!
June 12, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here you go: Arse Troll!
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/casualties/2008-06-04-june-toll_N.htm
The latest deaths reported by the military:
June 8
• A soldier was killed by an explosive in Tamim province.
June 7
• Army Sgt. 1st Class David R. Hurst, 31, Fort Sill, Okla.; killed in Baghdad when his vehicle struck an explosive; assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), located at Fort Polk, La.
June 4 -- Gunmen kill 3 U.S. soldiers north of Baghdad
• A soldier was killed by small-arms fire south of Baghdad.
Three soldiers died in Tikrit of wounds suffered from small arms fire and explosives in Sharqat. All were assigned to the 1st Battalion, 87th Infantry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y. Killed were:
• Army Sgt. Shane P. Duffy, 22, Taunton, Mass.
• Army Spc. Jonathan D. A. Emard, 20, Mesquite, Texas.
• Army Sgt. Cody R. Legg, 23, Escondido, Calif.
June 3
• Army Pfc. Joshua E. Waltenbaugh, 19, Ford City, Pa.; died in Taji of injuries from a non-combat incident; assigned to the 4th Squadron, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, Fort Hood, Texas.
June 2
• Army Spc. Quincy J. Green, 26, El Paso; died in Tikrit of injuries from a non-combat incident; assigned to the 601st Aviation Support Battalion, 1st Combat Aviation Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, Fort Riley, Kan.
June 1
• Army Spc. Justin R. Mixon, 22, Bogalusa, La.; died in Baghdad after his vehicle struck an explosive; assigned to the 1st Squadron, 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment, Vilseck, Germany.
• Army Spc. Christopher D. McCarthy, 28, Virginia Beach; died of a non-combat cause at Forward Operating Base Ramadi, Iraq; assigned to the U.S. Joint Forces Command, Joint Reserve Unit, Norfolk, Va.
June 12, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
stop it, you're getting her aroused.
June 12, 2008 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
do you know how many soldiers commit suicide everyday or die off non-combat related illness?
June 12, 2008 4:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
well there u are. nice call on obama losing MA.
6.12.08 Suffolk U Poll : Obama 53, McCain 30. The Straight Talk express is out of coal.
June 12, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice to see you still prancing around this site, dropping your troll-like preemptive "I told you so" rants Aimey May.
June 12, 2008 4:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I always thought that Barack would win NC (the highly educated Research Triangle, together with Triad and Charlotte Metro just screams Barack Country... as does Northern VA). I think he'll make a play for the I-85 corridor between Charlotte and ATL, will take VA with the DC suburbs and the Hampton Roads area, and will make McCain compete up and down the Front Range and throughout the Rust Belt (Appalachia be damned...).
He'll of course win Bos-Wash, LA, Northern CA, Seattle, the Willamette Valley...
Might be a little tougher in the Sunbelt and South Florida, though, and he'll need to watch the Latinos in the Texas Triangle, but does anyone not think that he's gonna win with at least 55% of the popular?
Barack's a 50-state game changer.
June 12, 2008 2:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
all the polls today confirm that obama has still got a problem with hard working whites. can he reach out to them and assure them that he understands their concernc. he must stop the high and mighty elitism. he must apologise. maybe he could make a sweeping apology speach? he could apologise for a huge laundry list of things. 1. the bitter comment. 2.rev. wright.3. the plagiarism. 4. michelle's not proud speech. 5. michelle's fist bump. 6. getting hillary into trouble about her assassination quote. 7.playing the race and gender card. 8. showing off with large crowds. 9.beating up joe lieberman. 10. hamas. 11. his middle name.
anyhow there are alot more but i will leave that up to the obama campaign.
June 12, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did the polls say anything about how he's doing with all of those lazy whites?
June 12, 2008 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win north carolina, georgia and south carolina..... in fact, he is going to win alot of the republican states.......
to many people want the troops brought home.....
to many people worry about John McCain's age....
to many people hate George Bush....
to many people are looking forward to making history by putting a black man in office.....
A huge turnout of blacks in the southern states, will favor obama and help him win those states and i don't blame them....... If i was black i would go out and vote for him..... why not change history..... It would be awesome to have my kids and others learn about Obama as the first black president during black history month.
GO OBAMA!!!!!
June 12, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
When did you hear last a sodier die in Iraq? If soldiers are not dying there, what's the rush to bring them home? You root so hard for the military failure in Iraq that it sickens me. You are so scared of our continued success in Iraq.
June 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here you go, Arse Troll.
http://www.jacksonholestartrib.com/articles/2008/06/12/news/wyoming/5869e786b58c7659872574660001f281.txt
Wyoming soldier dies in Iraq
By The Associated Press Thursday, June 12, 2008
[oas:casperstartribune.net/news/wyoming:Middle1]
SARATOGA -- A soldier from Saratoga who died in Iraq this weekend was remembered by his mother as a dedicated serviceman who looked forward one day to retiring to the Wyoming mountains.
The U.S. Department of Defense announced Wednesday that Staff Sgt. Tyler E. Pickett died Sunday in Kirkuk Province. He was killed by enemy forces using an improvised explosive device.
Pickett was assigned to the U.S. Army's 10th Mountain Division at Fort Drum, N.Y.
Pickett's mother, Saratoga resident Sheri Peterson, said her 28-year-old son was killed in a suicide bombing that also injured 18 other people. Pickett was on his second tour in Iraq and had also served in Afghanistan.
Pickett is survived by his wife, Kristy, of Antwerp, N.Y., and her two children, Peterson said. The couple celebrated their second anniversary in February.
Pickett was born in Rice Lake, Wis., and moved to Saratoga, in south-central Wyoming, at the age of 14.
"When you move to a small town, sometimes it's hard to acclimate," Peterson said. "That didn't happen here. He was friends with everyone. It didn't matter where he was, he always touched someone's life."
Pickett graduated from Saratoga High School in 1999 and enlisted in the military about a year later, Peterson said. She said serving in the military was always a part of Pickett's plan.
"He knew what he wanted long before most kids do," she said.
Peterson said her son came from a family with a history of military service.
"My son's job was to protect his country, and when you protect your country, you put your life on the line every day -- just like a police officer does, just like a fireman does," Peterson said.
Pickett's survivors include his father, Ed Pickett, of Rice Lake, and other family members in Wyoming. Peterson said funeral services are planned in Saratoga, Antwerp, N.Y., and Minnesota.
June 12, 2008 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please stop feeding the trolls
June 12, 2008 4:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Remember the recent news about the 2,000th soldier to die in Iraq? Well, the number is now at 4,000.
June 12, 2008 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Monday:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2008/06/iraq-us-casua-3.html
Just because people aren't being killed as often doesn't mean we should bring them home. They've done their part.
And how much more money are we going to flush down the cesspool of corrupt contracting that is the war?
June 12, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aimey...We already won the war...We can't win the peace, idiot. We need the Iraqi's to take control their own politics and Country. They want us out, we should get out and clean up Afghanistan.
June 12, 2008 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
aimey may you are a fucking idiot.
June 12, 2008 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. You do not get to play your half-assed politcal taunt game with this. Not this.
Ten died there so far this month. It's only the 12th of June.
Twenty died there last month. Fifty one in April. Thirty seven in March. Twenty nine in February. Forty in January.
That's a hundred and eighty-seven families so far this year who've felt their stomach instantly congeal into a hard knot and the bottom dropping out of their world when they looked out the window and saw dress uniforms walking up to their door.
That's a hundred and eighty seven families --mothers, fathers, wives, husbands and children--who've had a hole torn into their worlds that will never go away. That's hundreds more who lost their best friends. Thousands more who heard "Taps" and flinched away from firing of salutes as they said goodbye to men and women they'd known since childhood.
Also this year, 1,476 have been wounded. So far. That includes minor injuries, but also people who've lost limbs, suffered massive burns, lost sight, hearing or feet of their intestines and people with closed head injuries who will return to their families as virtual strangers because of brain damage.
And for every one of them, there are a hundred more who will deal with a lifetime of nightmares and flashbacks caused by PTSD from serving four or five deployments into a combat zone and thousands more family members who will suffer along with them.
Maybe you genuinely think its worth it. Maybe, in your muddled mind, you really do believe there is some militarily achievable objective left in Iraq that would be worth the cost in lives, treasure and addtional hatred. Christ, for all I know,you're one of those dumbasses who still thinsk Saddam had WMD's and was behind 9/11.
Whatever.
Whatever you really believe, don't you dare come on here, or anywhere, and say no one's dying in Iraq just because the Bush Administration has managed to smother the story by sneaking the bodies into the country in the the dark of night.
June 12, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo, NCSteve. Just...bravo.
June 12, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. Thank you, NCSteve. Spot on and brilliant.
June 12, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
If things are so great, why is Walter Jones, a Republican who represents the distric that includes Camp Lejeune, refusing to endorse McCain because of his stance on the war?
June 12, 2008 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Aimey May:
I am trying to square your Reader Post dated June6th, where you seem to be constructive in fostering discussion and debate on better ensuring that the Democratic Party all the more, better reflects the principles it stands for, and the vitriolic 'anti' Obama comments that you are dropping everywhere else on this site, including references to a commitment, on your part to vote for McCain in November (see link below). Not to mention, a deep seeded desire to see the Democratic Presidential nominee defeated.
Looks to me like you are a conflicted Democrat unwilling to work through their own petty ressentiments and resorting to trolling rants. Unfortunate sight to see.
_http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/the_final_event_of_hillarys_50.php
June 12, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or a troll.
June 12, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Carolinas in play today, tomorrow.... Texas. We have a strong Senate Candidate in Texas, and some close house seats (both that we could capture and that we must defend), and the Texas Republicans have redefined the meaning of corruption over the last decade. I'd like to see Texas become a priority for the campaign - the pieces are in place for a shocker there, with the Democratic Party label suddenly having a lot of luster and the Republican label badly tarnished.
Florida is still worrisome, but if we can put Texas in play, the whole map starts to change.
June 12, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Landslide win in Nov
June 12, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a dream......
Let's win all 50 states come November.......
I can't see it happening but can't i dream......
GO OBAMA!!!!!!
June 12, 2008 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's give McCain Panama, just to make him feel better.
*snark*
But yeah, I love that cream too, but we have to kick ass until Nov 4th to make that happen, as I'm sure you know.
June 12, 2008 2:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
All 50 might be reaching, HC08, but the Repugs are definitely in for a hard spanking. It'll be sweeett!
June 12, 2008 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep fighting the good fight HillaryClinton08!
June 12, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
GOP claim about Chinese oil drilling off Cuba is untrue
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/40776.html
Excerpt: Use link to read the complete report.
WASHINGTON — As Congress has debated energy policy over the past several days, an unusual argument keeps surfacing in support of drilling off the U.S. coastline and in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Why, ask some Republicans, should the United States be thwarted from drilling in its own territory when just 50 miles off the Florida coastline the Chinese government is drilling for oil under Cuban leases?
Yet no one can prove that the Chinese are drilling anywhere off Cuba's shoreline. The China-Cuba connection is "akin to urban legend," said Sen. Mel Martinez, a Republican from Florida who opposes drilling off the coast of his state but who backs exploration in ANWR.
"China is not drilling in Cuba's Gulf of Mexico waters, period," said Jorge Pinon, an energy fellow with the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami and an expert in oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico. Martinez cited Pinon's research when he took to the Senate floor Wednesday to set the record straight.
June 12, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm from NC and it is in play this year for many reasons. The war and slime of the GOP but people here will not aaccept the performance of the economy. It used to be said that NC was almost recession proof because of sustained popuation growth and the (former) banking center of the south in Charlotte. This time it is different and people are angry at Bush and the GOP. I think Barack will have huge coattails and predict at least 55% majority vote for Barack...and a new Democratic Senator as well.
June 12, 2008 2:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just curious, since I live in Charlotte, why you say "(former) banking center"? We're still the biggest banking center outside of NYC by many measures.
I'm being too sensitive aren't I? :)
Anyway, Charlotte will go Obama no doubt. Kerry won with 52% here in 2004. Even in Wake, which is Raleigh, Bush won with 51%. So Charlotte is a big help to any Democrat in NC and will be especially so for Obama, with our large AA population.
June 12, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Turnout, turnout, turnout....
Obama ground operation should go full-steam. There are X number who will never vote Obama, but there are several republicans who are not enthusiastic about McCain.
Massive voter registration drive, massive GOTV operation and turnout.
June 12, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Troops are still dying for a lie and a mistake.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/casualties/2008-06-04-june-toll_N.htm
The latest deaths reported by the military:
June 8
• A soldier was killed by an explosive in Tamim province.
June 7
• Army Sgt. 1st Class David R. Hurst, 31, Fort Sill, Okla.; killed in Baghdad when his vehicle struck an explosive; assigned to the 2nd Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), located at Fort Polk, La.
June 4 -- Gunmen kill 3 U.S. soldiers north of Baghdad
• A soldier was killed by small-arms fire south of Baghdad.
Three soldiers died in Tikrit of wounds suffered from small arms fire and explosives in Sharqat. All were assigned to the 1st Battalion, 87th Infantry Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y. Killed were:
• Army Sgt. Shane P. Duffy, 22, Taunton, Mass.
• Army Spc. Jonathan D. A. Emard, 20, Mesquite, Texas.
• Army Sgt. Cody R. Legg, 23, Escondido, Calif.
June 3
• Army Pfc. Joshua E. Waltenbaugh, 19, Ford City, Pa.; died in Taji of injuries from a non-combat incident; assigned to the 4th Squadron, 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment, Fort Hood, Texas.
June 2
• Army Spc. Quincy J. Green, 26, El Paso; died in Tikrit of injuries from a non-combat incident; assigned to the 601st Aviation Support Battalion, 1st Combat Aviation Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, Fort Riley, Kan.
June 1
• Army Spc. Justin R. Mixon, 22, Bogalusa, La.; died in Baghdad after his vehicle struck an explosive; assigned to the 1st Squadron, 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment, Vilseck, Germany.
• Army Spc. Christopher D. McCarthy, 28, Virginia Beach; died of a non-combat cause at Forward Operating Base Ramadi, Iraq; assigned to the U.S. Joint Forces Command, Joint Reserve Unit, Norfolk, Va.
June 12, 2008 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolina is a strange state politically, suffering from a split personality. Not that long ago, we had Jesse Helms (everybody knows who he is) and Terry Sanford (an unapologetic liberal) serving simultaneously in the U.S. Senate. I think Obama can use historically high African-American turnout and the considerable disaffection of military families at Camp Lejeune, Ft. Bragg, and elsewhere to swing a modest loss into a modest victory. And he could bring Mrs. Dole's invisible reign to an end at the same time. It feels really good not to be written off from the start for a change.
June 12, 2008 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad you brought the U.S. Senate race up. Here in the Greensboro media market, we've been getting a steady diet of Elizabeth Dole commercials...which are odd, because she doesn't speak in any of them. She just drives around in her big white Suburban, and other people talk about her clout and how "She is one tough lady."
A big turnout for Obama could very well claim Elizabeth Dole as a casualty. And it could propel our lack-luster Lt. Gov. into the Governors' Mansion.
June 12, 2008 3:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
But Kay Hagen will need to get off her duff to beat Dole. So far, I'm not impressed.
June 12, 2008 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Me either. I was singularly unimpressed by Hagen's speech at the JJ dinner. Maybe she will be/is ten times the elected official that Bev Purdue is/would be, but Purdue, at a minimum, seems to have far better political skills and instincts. (And, besides, Richard Moore just plain gave me the creeps.)
Also, Hagan's logo sucks.
June 12, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
While working for Senator Obama in Greensboro during the run up to our primary, the excitement was very apparent in the whole area. People were taling everywhere.
When early voting started, likes were out the door of the courthouse.
I am sure the excitement and campaign will hit a nerve again in this area, and I would think all of North Carolina.
I am a recently relocated California liberal. I talk every day to people whom have moved to the south due to the lower cost of living here. Most of us are retired and on reduced incomes.
I'm not whinning, just trying to explain why many states in the south are in play. Many of us are the color blnd from the blue states.
June 12, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Obama-Clinton map:
http://img199.imagevenue.com/aAfkjfp01fo1i-8306/loc463/36667_Obama-Clinton08_122_463lo.jpg
June 12, 2008 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah,great idea!Put Tuzla Annie on the ticket and watch her "misspeaking" ass wrench defeat from the jaws of victory.
June 12, 2008 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes We F#cking Can!
June 12, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
As any good Southern boy will tell you Eric (HELLO LOUISIANA!)
http://www.giggiddy.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/barack_shirt2.JPG
June 12, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're going to win Ohio too.
Strickland and Obama will be at a senior citizen's village in Columbus on Friday.
June 12, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
My guess is we will be winning at least 10 more states than in the last 2 elections, if most of Hillary's army line up behind Obama. Around the time of the convention, before or after, you will see all polls showing this.
June 12, 2008 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Obama is Putting North Carolina In Play"
Damn straight.
June 12, 2008 5:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Andy from Bklyn--
Obama will apologize for all those things when McCAin does a town hall apology on being the Hanoi songbird, divorcing his wife once he returned home from Viet Nam because she was no longer "beautiful" enough due to a car accident, cheating on his wife with an 18 yr old named Cindy McCain, the Keating 5 scandal where he almost landed in jail but for the grace of his father in law's money, his repeated flip flops on taxes (first he was against the Bush tax cuts and now he's for em) and his repeated inability to distinguish Sunni from Shia. Not to mention his endless desire to keep our troops in Iraq in perpetuity for a war that should have never been authorized and should have never been waged.
Plus quite a bit more -- see Keith Olbermann's statement against McCain tonight - the best piece of journalism in quite a while.
I have a suggestion for you - repeat slowly to yourself throughout the course of each day the following phrase--"President Barack Obama... President Barack Obama..." Because McCain is a dead duck.
June 12, 2008 10:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the more important things to remember about NC is that most of the voters are now concentrated in a few major urban pockets. The "Research Triangle" (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) accounts for about 25% of NC's votes - so it's a good place for Obama to, say, kick off a two-week tour of stumps focused on economic issues.
NC has 100 counties. Fourteen of them combined to account for over 50% of 2004's presidential votes:
Wake (9.96% of NC's total votes) - Bush
Mecklenburg (9.23%) - Bush
Guilford (5.69%) - Kerry
Forsyth (3.97) - Bush
Durham (3.13) - Kerry
Buncombe (3.00) - Bush
Cumberland (2.72) - Bush
New Hanover (2.32) - Bush
Orange (1.83) - Kerry
Gaston (1.82) - Bush
Union (1.74) - Bush
Cabarrus (1.74) - Bush
Davidson (1.70) - Bush
Catawba (1.68) - Bush
top 14 counties = 50.54% of NC votes
Bush wins 11 counties, Kerry wins 3
Total votes cast in top 14 counties = 1,769,398
Bush margin of victory in top counties = 95,478 votes (2.77%)
other 86 counties in NC = 49.46% of NC votes
Bush wins 69 counties, Kerry wins 17
Total votes cast in other 86 counties = 1,674,636
Bush margin of victory in remaining counties = 336,839 (9.78%)
So, what does this matter? Well, for one thing, since 2004, the population in NC has concentrated even more in the urban areas. When you look at the NC results from 2004, you can see that most of Bush's margin of victory came from the ex-urban and rural counties. As lopsided as it seems, had Kerry done won just a couple of the larger cities (Raleigh and Charlotte, especially), he might have won the state.
Now, when you look at NC's primary results, what do you see? Obama had huge wins in NC's top nine voting counties. By "huge" I mean >25% margins. Clinton won 4 of the 5 "smaller" big counties, but not in blowouts. While Obama's wins in other parts of the state (especially the eastern coastal region) allowed him to boost his margin, his big wins in those top nine counties assured that he would carry the state regardless of Clinton's performance amongst the the rural counties.
Throughout the spring, Obama has made numerous appearances in NC - and has developed a solid ground game and a committed following, especially in those crucial high population counties. He's given major addresses in Raleigh and Fayetteville, he's campaigned in Charlotte and Chapel Hill and Greensboro. Somebody clearly knows what's what. NC will be blue in November.
Oh, and I get my numbers from The Center for the Study of the American South. I like to read their pubs, sift through the demographics and trends. Fun for insomniacs.
June 13, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink