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Poll: Obama Leads By Seven In Iowa
A new Rasmussen poll of Iowa confirms that Barack Obama is enjoying a post-primary bounce across the country, leading John McCain 45%-38%, a solid margin with the poll's ±4% margin of error.
Iowa is a crucial battleground state that voted for Al Gore in 2000, but then narrowly switched to George W. Bush in 2004. A month ago, Obama led here by only 44%-42% in Rasmussen's polling.
His job now, of course, is to sustain his post-primary bounce, which is historically a tough job to perform.
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This is about par for the course--a 5% post-primary bump. Good to see.
June 12, 2008 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Its quite the trend, Obama is winning in almost every swing state.
June 12, 2008 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not only will he sustain it, he's gonna grow that baby
June 12, 2008 9:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
No way. Our media assured us he has a white voter problem.
June 12, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, you need to get your dog in rehab. Stat!
June 12, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like the avatar. I usually have three pairs of canine eyes watching me while I eat.
June 12, 2008 9:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
But wait! I thought he was unelectable?
June 12, 2008 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I watched morning Joe and it seemed thats all they talked about is Obama has white male problem.
June 12, 2008 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's called "wishful thinking". Or self-fulfilling prophecy. You say something often enough and it becomes the conventional media wisdom.
The facts though are pesky things. Apart from running against Clinton in the primary, where the so-called Working Whites flocked to Clinton's banner, there is no convincing evidence that they are flocking to McCain for the general.
Scarborough is using his platform in the media to perpetuate the meme that Obama continues to be dogged by the "white voter" problem contrary to facts. It's the only way the GOP can hope to win.
June 12, 2008 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
So now it's a "white male" problem. We behold the death and transmogrification of our silly media memes.
June 12, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm of the opinion Obama's "white male problem" versus McCain is still just a low information trend.
Much of America is not paying attention to this campaign, and many of the white males being polled know McCain as the mavericky fighter pilot who served as a POW. They don't know, or care, that the 2008 version of McCain bears almost no resemblence to the 2000 and prior version. On policy matters and the fact he is daily confused about what he means or said earlier in the day.
I have the distinct feeling McCain has maxed out his support and will only drop as the weeks and months of campaigning roll by.
This white male would have likely voted for McCain in 2000 had he gotten the nomination. Today I am pretty embarrassed for Senator McCain and only hope he can retire in November with a bit of his honor still in tact.
June 12, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
The media seems obsessed with Obama's "weaknesses." No matter how well he does, they focus on that area where he's not doing well.
He's leading McCain by 20 points among women overall, yet they spent all their time talking about how he's trailing among suburban women. Kerry lost white men by 25 points; Obama is losing by 20 points but they act as if that's going to kill him. There was all of this talk about how he can't win Latinos but now that he leads McCain 62-29 among Latinos, they don't even mention it!
I wish they'd focus on McCain's weaknesses--like he's losing every demographic except aging warmongers.
June 12, 2008 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm done with "Morning Joe." If I want to listen to a Republican spewing talking points and his ridiculous, Robin Quivers-like sidekick, I'll watch Fox's morning show.
June 12, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
+13 in Wisconsin!
Damn!
June 12, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Rassmussen sucks as a polling operation. Total right-wing tilt. Add 5 to obama at least at this point to rassmussen's number. Iowa is probably solidly in obama's column, especially since iowa helped get him started big time and mcbush dissed iowa. The polls around the time of his win are more indicative of where obama is, which were around 52 or so to 38 or so for mcbush. 7 electoral votes in the american people/obama column.
June 12, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've said it before, and I will say it again. This is more like Clinton/Dole than Bush/Gore.
There is a very interesting article in TNR today about a number of Obamacons (conservatives for Obama) who seem genuinely interested in what Obama has to bring to the table. Compare that to an article today from The Hill about how a bloc of 14 Republicans are not inclined to endorse McCain (one of whom, Wayne Gilchrest, my Congressman, is a principled man who does not, in my opinion, like McCain or the dangerous policies he embraces).
The gabbering that Obama is simply Dukakis/Kerry in different skin is patently absurd.
Add to this the fact that McCain is almost breathtakingly bad as a campaigner--just truly, deeply, astonishingly awful, even worse than Dole--and we are looking, I think, for support for Obama to grow.
My only concern, and my only beef with the Democratic Party is that they always seem to have their convention before the Republicans', and that gives doofuses like Bush and McCain the last word. Pisses me off.
June 12, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
The reason why the dems always have their convention first is that they keep losing presidential elections. The party that is not in the white house gets their convention first and the incumbent party goes second. Hopefully, the republicans will be going first next time around.
June 12, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
WE HAVE TO CHILL!
In July of 2004, Kerry was up between 1 and 11 points in all but two polls. Things can change.
McCain will lead in the polls later this year. We can't panic.
But we also can't be complacent under ANY circumstrances.
June 12, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course you're right, things can change. But Obama is not Kerry and 2008 is definitely not 2004.
June 12, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
The internals of the Wisc. poll are particularly interesting. Obama has a favorable rating of 64 percent. And this comes after Wright and bittergate and Hillary pounding him for five months. AND this is in a state McCain talks about winning. Makes me wonder if they came to believe that the media and Hillary were doing all the dirty work for them these last months and the didn't need to bother putting together a real campaign.
June 12, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ahhh, that's an interesting theory. Maybe that's why mcbush didn't do anything and it makes sense. I was wondering why he has been virtually silent for 3 months and doing zippo. He didn't want to take any of the oxygen out of the clinton attacks.
June 12, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm confused as to whether or not this is EXCELLENT NEWS!! or not as per to any particular candidate in the GOP and hope that someone here could clear that up. Please. It would make my morning.
June 12, 2008 10:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
obama has a problem with white working class voters from the heartland. he must reach out to them and try to allay there fears that their values will not be represented in an obama whitehouse. he must go among them and try to appeal to their concerns if he is to win the general election. they are very worried about him.
June 12, 2008 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
Did you crib that right from the talking points? What the fuck do you think he's been doing all these months? When people say stuff like that, it only proves to me that they haven't been paying attention. It's a two-way street, people, and we have our responsibilities as voters to make as informed a choice as we can.
June 12, 2008 11:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
they are worried about him and what he represents. things like the fist bump are troubling to middle america.
June 12, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
No doubt about it, Obama has got his work cut for him with "white working-class folks" in parts of the interior. But his challenge with these folks is not national, as this poll indicates. I'm "white working-class" in Oregon, and Obama is doing very well with us folks here. Also in Nor Cal and Washington and the Southwest. Judging from anecdotal evidence, I think he's also making some surprising inroads in the Mountain states. Schweitzer and Tester are a new breed, and they'll give him a leg up over there.
The big media's meme on Obama and "white working-class" voters is, not surprisingly, too simplistic.
June 12, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
He's got to hammer away.
Gas Prices.
Gas Prices.
Gas Prices.
June 12, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
These polls are more media manipulation! Two months ago David Gregory said Obama had an Hispanic problem and now all of a sudden it's McCain with the Hispanic problem. I'd ignore the polls except the exit polls.
June 12, 2008 1:14 PM | Reply | Permalink