Poll: Obama Just Edging McCain In Virginia
Barack Obama could very well end up flipping Virginia -- a state that has voted Republican in every election since 1968 -- over into the Democratic column, a new Rasmussen poll suggests.
The numbers: Obama 45%, McCain 44%, within the ±4% margin of error. A month ago, McCain led by a 47%-44% margin. This is on top of a SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks ago, which gave Obama a 49%-42% lead.
The Obama campaign has aggressively targeted Virginia as a state they think they can win over, thanks to the growth in the Democratic voter base that has happened there over the past ten years. If they can successfully take its 13 electoral votes, it would become very difficult for John McCain to get a winning map without a state that Republicans have normally been able to count on.
He's gonna kick McCain's ass from coast to coast. November 4th is going to be a beautiful day. =)
June 16, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm tired of safety and prudence. Obama's gonna kick McGrampa right in his bony ass on November 4th.
June 16, 2008 6:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree I think Obama can win Virginia and completely beat mccain but it is a 4% margin of error so I wouldn't get so excited
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/06/16/bring-it-on-gop/
June 16, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is one time where the coattails will work in reverse. Mark Warner will drive up democratic turnout, win the senate race decisively and help Obama carry the state.
Obama can get the benefit of Warner's popularity without having him on the ticket as veep.
June 16, 2008 7:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Given recent demographic trending in Northern Virginia, I believe it is fair to say that the Mason-Dixon line is anachronistic, and the South really begins at the Rappahannock.
June 17, 2008 8:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Add 5 to ratsmussen numbers for the dem. Virginia is totally flippable. Go Obama!
As an aside, add Webb and it's a gimme state. Webb would help obama save a ton on advertising and help swing other southern states and firm up ohio and pa. Webb would help with the gun toting, "bitter," angry white-guy vote. Total landslide potential with Webb.
June 16, 2008 6:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have gone back and forth on this point (Webb as VP or no), but right now I am against the idea. Not because I do not like Webb (quite the contrary) but because I think that he is worth more to us in the Senate than in the VP's mansion. I do like the idea of Tim Kaine as Obama's VP, however. One way or the other, however, I am very pleased to see VA shaping up to go blue in 2008. Here's looking forward to an Obama landslide in November.
June 16, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that he is a huge help in the senate, but he can do that as vp as well. Like I said below, he would be a huge help to obama to govern as well as win the nomination. I don't see Webb being a typical, prior to darth vader, vp and I don't see Webb trying to take over the government, like darth vader. I see him as the bulldog knocking heads together to get things done for America and Obama. I envision him as Obama's bulldog. Obama is above the fray, giving direction and getting the people on board with his agenda and Webb is putting that direction and agenda into action. An awesome combination.
June 16, 2008 6:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your "add 5" rule puts a whole lot of states in play. But it's also why I keep saying NC should remain in the "swing" column, regardless of current polling. VA and NC will both go blue. Both underpolled Obama victories in primary, similar demographics, similar ground game. Electoral vote count: 13 (VA) + 15 (NC) = 28 = One more than FL
And the VP choice won't matter. Obama's already got them in his column.
June 17, 2008 3:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Add Webb or Kaine and it's done deal. (Warner, too, but they're not going to take him out of his Senate race.)
June 16, 2008 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not Kaine. He is anti-choice so a non-starter fro VP. Would rather have Warner than Webb as VP.
June 16, 2008 7:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shouldn't the headline for this be:
"Obama Just Edging McCain in State Hillary Might Have Done Well In"?
June 16, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Too funny, but the clintons have been getting slammed in va polling since last year. Add the clintons to the mix and kiss va bye-bye.
June 16, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
More like "Obama Just Edging McCain in State Hillary Might Have Done Well In, if it Hadn't Been for the Biased Media"
June 16, 2008 6:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, more like, "Obama Just Edging Out McCain in Virginia, But His Lead Would Be Larger Except That Millions of Virginians Who Voted For Hillary Are Going to Vote McCain, Because They Will Get You DNC! They Will Get You! According to Poll"
June 17, 2008 8:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
It should say Obama is kicking butt from coast to coast, but there are still people who have not had enough pain, suffering, death, poverty, criminality, greed, fraud, violations of the constitution, home foreclosures, gas prices, out of sight tuition, joblessness and last but not least...WAR! But stupidity knows no limits!
June 16, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great news. I'm still against putting Webb on the ticket for the sole reason that I think he's doing a fantastic job as Senator, but he's going to campaign hard for Obama. Webb's stock is rising, especially with his recent success on the new GI Bill - very important for Virginia's many military families - and there are a lot of people getting pretty tired of having their votes taken for granted as automatically Republican.
June 16, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree on his job as a senator. He's only been there for 1 1/2 years and he has done more in that time than most senators do in 20 years. The guy is awesome. I get sick of the whining about how you can't get anything done in washington in congress. It's a bunch of bs and webb is proving them wrong. That's why I want him as vp. He would totally be a huge help in obama governing and would help him in the campaign. A total twofer if there ever was one. Webb for vp!
June 16, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll be dissappointed and even surprised if Obama doesn't turn VA blue.
June 16, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it will be close, as in Webb vs. Allen close, but, yeah, I think it'll go blue this year. I'm hoping that NC is right there with it, though I give NC a lower, but not insignificant, chance of going blue as well. :)
June 16, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
It should say Obama is kicking butt from coast to coast, but there are still people who have not had enough pain, suffering, death, poverty, criminality, greed, fraud, violations of the constitution, home foreclosures, gas prices, out of sight tuition, joblessness and last but not least...WAR! But stupidity knows no limits!
June 16, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Virginia probably will be a 1-point state, along with Missouri and Nevada. They could all go either way easily.
Nix Webb on VP--his Tailhook writings and other statements regarding women in the military would just cause too much trouble with women voters, and while I think "Hillary indignation" is overblown in the media there just isn't any point in allowing the distraaction. I love Webb and think he has grown from where he was but so has Sam Nunn and sorry but, being calculatingly cold, mathematically you lose more with whatever alienation you might cause with women if you pick Webb than you do alienating gays with a Nunn pick. No offense.
June 16, 2008 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this argument is sooo overblown about Webb. Women who would vote dem would vote for mcbush over obama because of Webb? No way. Mcbush is as anti-women as any republican. Pro-criminalization of abortion. Screw any work benefits for women. Screw everyone not in the top 1% income bracket. Keep sending their children into an endless occupation meat grinder. Nahhh, I disagree that Webb would so over offend women that they would go to mcbush instead. Non-issue.
June 16, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really hope he picks Warner as VP and not Webb. Warner would lock-down VA for Obama, which up-ends the electoral apple cart big-time. But beyond the electoral considerations, Warner would be an ideal VP and the guy we want in the pipeline for 2016.
June 16, 2008 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yesterday Mark Warner explicitly stated he would not accept an offer from Obama to run as VP. See http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news/politics.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-06-15-0190.html
June 16, 2008 8:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Disappointing. He was my top pick.
June 16, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
He needs to take the Senate seat. There are lots of potential VP choices, but Warner is the guy running for that seat. He'll win it, but the NSCC couldn't find another viable contender at this short notice. Warner is doing the right thing by stating that his focus is on the race he's running now, not some hypothetical race that he didn't set out to run.
June 17, 2008 3:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Disappointing, indeed. Not the news my jet lagged eyes wanted to see at 4 in the morning. I was convinced Obama would pick Warner. I posted on this a few weeks ago.
Still, I would not fully discount the possibility yet. Warner had to say he was not seeking other positions at the very moment he was accepting the Democratic nod for Senate in Virginia. It would have been unthinkable for him to say I am open to other possibilities.
Obama is now head of the party and could press Warner on this. If Warner was introduced as Obama's VP a month from now, Warner could maintain his credibility among the Virginia Democrats who have supported him in his Senate bid, by saying Obama refused to take no for an answer and that one doesn't say no to the future president of the United States etc.
I wouldn't look to sell your intrade stocks on Warner just yet.
June 17, 2008 4:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
What!. Obama leading in Virginia; John McCain must be spinning in his catacomb.
June 16, 2008 7:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the things that makes Virginia doable for Obama is that the Virginia GOP and its enablers have their heads in the sand. It's evident in the close race between two reactionary GOP candidates for the US Senate, ending up with former governor Jim Gilmore whom the Washington Post editorialized against at length yesterday. And it's evident today in the lead editorial of the Richmond Times-Dispatch which denies in its first statement that Virginia has gone purple and asserts that McCain will triumph. Everywhere you turn, Virginia's conservatives are unable to face reality and abandon their rigid and narrow ideology. Sadly, this could result in a failed special session of the state legislature later this month where Gov. Kaine is asking the General Assembly to agree on urgently needed transportation funding. The GOP is refusing to acknowledge the problems the state faces and may end up scuttling the session. But come November, Virginia voters should be clear that there's only one responsible political party in this state, and it's NOT their beloved GOP.
June 16, 2008 7:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
What, not live blogging the Gore endorsement? He's tearing up the stage with his speech.
If we had seen this Gore in 2000, George W. Bush would just have been a footnote in the annals of history.
June 16, 2008 9:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
no offense taken, as what you've said about Nunn is silly. Nunn who? will be the question voters will ask. that man hasn't been seen for many years, and the only reason that his name is being mentioned as a VP choice is for appearances. to make it appear that someone who conservatives might like, who holds conservative positions, comes from the South, is pro-military, and is a white male, can make it onto the ticket with Obama. but Nunn hasnt been seen for years yet is still respected by many, esp southern Dems. but Webb is current and would fill those same 'gaps' that Nunn would, but with more current experience. Nunn's name is there merely for window-dressing.
June 16, 2008 9:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am kind of hoping Obama tabs somebody for V.P. not currently serving in the Senate, particularly from a (until now at least) red state which isn't certain to choose a Dem replacement.
June 16, 2008 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
It might be fun to nominate Patti Solis Doyle just to see the look on Hillary and Bill's faces.
June 16, 2008 10:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Did Judas ever have a sister?
June 16, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Has anyone considered the second "F" in the old BFF relationship Hillary is reported to have had with Patty, may still hold true?
Which might suggest Hillary is actually being tapped for the VP spot, and her pre-kitchen-sink staff is being positioned to be there for her?
Just food for thoght...
June 17, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, he's got some flaws, including his age (70) and his record on the death penalty (the single biggest hang-up for me personally), but a red-stater who could be a good "floater" choice would be Jim Hunt. He's like the single most popular figure in all of NC political history, I think. He got elected governor for 4 terms. Great on education, good on economy. Don't know if it's a "pro" or a "con," but Hunt is also the guy who came up with the super-delegate system. ;-)
I think if Gore had picked Hunt as his VP instead of Loserman in 2000, he'd have won - "two southerners" wisdom aside. Again, I don't think he's a real choice for Obama, but if O is going to sit down with an oldie like Nunn, he might want to have a chat with Hunt, too, if for no other reason than the fact that it would earn him some more free NC news coverage.
June 17, 2008 3:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Smacking Reagan Democrats upside the head with a two by four to get their attention and bring them to their senses:
Regardless of which political party someone is affiliated with, I have a modest proposal to make:
If you voted to reelect George W.Bush, with all the information that was available to you, that he was a complete incompetent, then your judgment is not to be trusted. You are part of the problem, and you helped to create the mess the nation now finds itself in, so do the right thing. Step aside and let the people who knew better, in 2004, handle the repair job.
It is time for you to stop making things worse by continuing to vote. Your judgment on George W. Bush shows that you should not vote this November. Just sit this one out, until we can get the bus out of the ditch, just like we have had to do after Republicans have run it into the ditch many times before; causing the great depression for example.
To all you so called Blue Collar Reagan Democrats out there, just because the Democrats have always pulled you out of Republican made depressions and recessions,and that allowed you to prosper enough to become arrogant and snooty enough to think that made you a Republican, isn't it time you learned to stop acting in such a stupid, and self defeating manner on election days.
In the words of Harry Truman; If you want to live like a Republican then you should always vote like a Democrat. Just look at the history of the working class, and which party always rescued them in hard times. How many more times do you have to learn that lesson, before you stop going back for another fling with that abusive Republican Tart, who always leaves you broke and abandoned.
June 16, 2008 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Before you vote for McCain, here is another reason to question this guy's objectivity and ability to make reasonable decisions:
After McCain had returned from Vietnam as a war hero and was physically rehabilitated; McCain was urged by his medical caretakers and military colleagues never to fly again. But McCain insisted on going up. He piloted an ultra-light, single propeller plane -- and crashed another time. His fifth loss of a plane has vanished from public records, but should be a subject of discussion in his Navy file. It wouldn't be surprising if his naval superiors worried that McCain was just too defiant, too reckless and too crash prone.
Regardless, McCain owes it to the country to release his complete naval records so that American voters can see his documented history and make an informed decision.
June 16, 2008 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sam Nunn was mummified as a young man and rigor mortis has definitley set in by now. He could bore terrorist supects into confessing.
As for Webb, he would pobably lock up VA for McCain but his problem with women goes beyond his writings (like the scene in his novel in which a father does something unspeakable to his young son) -- women I know tell me he seems creepy-looking to them.
June 17, 2008 12:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
I was an elected delegate to the recent Va. Dem convention in Hampton, VA. I saw the reactions of key activists to the billionaire-financing and rock-star marketing associated with Sen. Obama's campaign.
But of course, Sen. Obama's campaign, was never anything but rock-star marketing to white youth, and a racial pitch to Afican-Americans--a well-crafted hand grenade to be tossed at Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Democratic Party.
If Obama is the nominee, be assured that Virginia is NOT in play. Any GOPer will beat him--probably easily. The Billionaires only bought into Obama because he was a sure loser.
The only way that Obama will carry Va. is if he is the VP running mate of another presidential candidate like Jim Webb, Hillary Clinton, or Mark Warner.
June 17, 2008 1:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
"billionaire-financing"???
If you are truly an elected delegate to the VA convention (which is highly doubtful based on that phrasing), you ought to be ashamed. As a Virginia resident, I am thoroughly disgusted by your absurd comment.
Cite any tangible evidence that Virginia is not in play. You can not.
June 17, 2008 5:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
As one of those middle class billionaires who gave Obama a small contribution that I could hardly afford, just let me say I wish there were more of us...
June 17, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
since Virginia's got a Demoocrat for Governor, Webb cold become the Sec. of Defense and we would not lose a seat to the R's... and we would get an imminently experienced person in that position, who is already well respected by the rank and file AND the top brass...
Just food for thought
June 17, 2008 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
President - Obama
Vice President - Clinton - Sebelius - Edwards
Secretary of;
State -Bill Richardson - Joe Biden
Treasury -Rangel -
Defense -Webb
Attorney General -John Edwards - Henry Waxman - Robert Wexler (you can see where I'm going with this one..)
Interior -Bingaman
Agriculture -Tom Harkin
Commerce - Emanuel - Sebelius
Labor - Gephart - Dean - Bonior
Health and Human Services - Dr. Howard Dean
Housing and Urban Development -Dennis Kucinich
Transportation - Schumer
Energy - Al Gore - Barbara Boxer (Ahnold would replace her with an R, though)
Education -Vilsack (Tom)
Veteran's Affairs -Cleland
Homeland Security -Hagel (the unity post)
Chief of Staff -David Axelrod
EPA - Al Gore
Management and Budget - Van Hollen
Drug Control - Jack Herrer
U.S. Trade representative - Sebelius
I am just trying to provoke some discussion here about potential, not any certitudes. Which is why this list is incomplete, becasue I don't pretend to have an opinion about everything I know so little about (regardless of what some of you may think) and I know I have Sebelius sprinkled throughout, but she is one of the most versatile characers in this mix, so she fits quite well at more than one position.
It would be great to see a poll like this on Obama's website, and on the DNC site, to see how his supporters feel about the options... plus i need to research what party holds the Governor's post in the states where some of these people come from,
Now there's some open source governance, doncha know...
June 17, 2008 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
VP - Clinton and Edwards? No, no, no. I would MUCH rather see Joe Biden or even maybe Wes Clark or Evan Bayh.
June 17, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink